Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 #162
Expected Predictive Rating +0.4 #157
Pace 75.9 #33
Improvement -3.3 #318

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #188 D- C A- C+ C
Defense #149 C- A C+ D- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #138 0.93 #361 -3.8 #304
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #179 0.75 #182 -0.1 #180
Three Pointers 40% #211 1.00 #199 -1.0 #212
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #318 -4.8 #319
Freethrows 18.6 #118 73% #195 13.5 #128
Second Chance 34.1% #84 0.96 #285 0.33 #158
Turnovers 13.9% #40
Total Offense -0.8 #188

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #354 1.10 #97 +6.5 #20
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #73 0.83 #295 -2.3 #333
Three Pointers 47% #39 1.12 #315 -5.6 #351
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #221 -1.3 #218
Freethrows 20.6 #325 72% #130 14.7 #311
Second Chance 28.1% #93 0.85 #11 0.24 #20
Turnovers 17.6% #101
Total Defense +0.5 #149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #176 -2.3% #26
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.8% #330 5.1% #273
Possession Length 16.5 #94 17.1 #151
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #125 0.12 #40
Improvement -2.6 #318 -0.7 #232

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 8.2% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 62.1% 80.3% 54.5%
.500 or above in Conference 58.8% 78.5% 50.6%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round5.9% 8.2% 4.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Away) - 29.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 76 - 13
Quad 410 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 342 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 70 90% +9  1 - 0 -3 -4 F B C+ +0 D- D A+
 Mon, Nov 10 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 79 57% -0  2 - 0 +6 +4 D+ F A+ +1 F A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 241 Tennessee St. W 95 - 82 75% +9  3 - 0 +6 +10 C- B+ A+ -5 F A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 26 21 Vanderbilt L 78 - 83 6% -6  3 - 1 +12 +1 B D- F +11 A- A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 74 South Florida L 91 - 97 OT 22% +5  3 - 2 +2 +0 C C+ D+ +3 B A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 103 Wichita St. W 75 - 70 32% +1  4 - 2 +10 +11 B- C A+ -1 C+ A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 271 Evansville W 80 - 79 80% +3  5 - 2 -8 +3 C D- D -11 F D C
 Wed, Dec 10 163 @Marshall L 61 - 77 39% -7  5 - 3 -13 -10 F F C -4 B+ B- F
 Fri, Dec 19 70 Tulsa L 81 - 82 30% +3  5 - 4 +4 +6 C- B- A+ -2 C+ A+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 216 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 78 50% -12  5 - 5 0 - 1 -11 -4 F D+ C -7 F A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 124 Sam Houston St. W 102 - 91 51% -1  6 - 5 1 - 1 +10 +19 D+ A+ C -9 C C D+
 Sun, Jan 4 228 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 61 74% +7  7 - 5 2 - 1 -2 -1 F B- B+ -0 B C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 133 @New Mexico St. L 64 - 80 32% -16  7 - 6 2 - 2 -11 -4 F B+ A+ -8 C+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 256 @UTEP W 68 - 56 57% +0  8 - 6 3 - 2 +10 -3 F D- A- +13 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 179 Missouri St. W 87 - 72 65% +6  9 - 6 4 - 2 +11 +17 B A+ A+ -5 B F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 150 Kennesaw St. L 65 - 81 58% -5  9 - 7 4 - 3 -18 -12 F F A+ -6 D A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 94 Liberty L 69 - 76 39% -5  9 - 8 4 - 4 -4 +0 D+ C+ F -5 D C+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 124 @Sam Houston St. L 78 - 84 29%
 Wed, Jan 28 150 @Kennesaw St. L 81 - 85 36%
 Sat, Jan 31 128 @Middle Tennessee L 71 - 76 31%
 Thu, Feb 5 216 Jacksonville St. W 75 - 69 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 192 Florida International W 84 - 79 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 128 Middle Tennessee W 74 - 73 53%
 Wed, Feb 18 295 @Delaware W 73 - 69 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 94 @Liberty L 71 - 80 21%
 Thu, Feb 26 133 New Mexico St. W 77 - 76 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 256 UTEP W 77 - 69 76%
 Thu, Mar 5 179 @Missouri St. L 73 - 75 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 192 @Florida International L 81 - 82 46%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 10 +0 -1 D- C A- +1 C- A C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 2.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 5.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 6.3 4.4 0.4 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 6.0 6.6 0.9 14.0 5th
6th 0.2 3.5 8.9 2.1 0.1 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 8.3 4.1 0.2 0.0 14.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.3 5.1 0.5 11.7 8th
9th 0.3 2.8 4.4 0.9 0.0 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.0 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.9 12.6 18.5 20.8 17.4 12.0 6.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 33.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.5% 21.5% 21.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-6 2.1% 15.6% 15.6% 12.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.8
13-7 6.0% 14.6% 14.6% 13.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.1
12-8 12.0% 11.3% 11.3% 13.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 10.7
11-9 17.4% 8.2% 8.2% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.2 15.9
10-10 20.8% 4.4% 4.4% 14.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 19.8
9-11 18.5% 2.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 18.0
8-12 12.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.1 0.1 12.4
7-13 6.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 6.8
6-14 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-15 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 13.7 94.1 0.0%