Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#105
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#101
Pace81.2#4
Improvement+1.9#70

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#171
First Shot+1.5#132
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#268
Layup/Dunks-1.5#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#120
Freethrows+3.6#26
Improvement+1.3#84

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#69
First Shot+4.3#58
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#177
Layups/Dunks+5.6#35
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#175
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#104
Freethrows-3.5#347
Improvement+0.6#142
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.0% 23.1% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.3 11.8 12.4
.500 or above 91.4% 97.8% 90.5%
.500 or above in Conference 82.8% 89.6% 81.9%
Conference Champion 21.6% 30.6% 20.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.6% 1.9%
First Four0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round16.9% 22.8% 16.1%
Second Round3.2% 5.4% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.6% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 11.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 39 - 511 - 11
Quad 49 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 110   Wichita St. L 84-91 64%     0 - 1 -6.3 -1.2 -4.0
  Nov 09, 2024 102   @ Grand Canyon L 72-74 36%     0 - 2 +6.1 -2.0 +8.2
  Nov 17, 2024 107   Lipscomb W 66-61 62%     1 - 2 +6.2 -9.8 +15.7
  Nov 20, 2024 303   Jackson St. W 79-62 91%     2 - 2 +6.3 +0.1 +5.4
  Nov 26, 2024 9   @ Kentucky L 68-87 8%     2 - 3 +1.3 -4.5 +7.6
  Nov 30, 2024 190   Marshall W 90-82 80%     3 - 3 +3.7 +5.8 -3.0
  Dec 07, 2024 290   @ Evansville W 79-65 78%     4 - 3 +10.2 +4.2 +5.8
  Dec 10, 2024 316   Tennessee St. W 84-60 93%     5 - 3 +12.3 -0.2 +10.7
  Dec 14, 2024 124   Murray St. W 81-76 OT 69%     6 - 3 +4.4 -5.0 +8.6
  Dec 17, 2024 170   Seattle W 86-73 78%     7 - 3 +9.4 +11.0 -1.6
  Dec 29, 2024 21   @ Michigan L 72-85 12%    
  Jan 02, 2025 81   @ Liberty L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 04, 2025 248   @ Florida International W 80-74 72%    
  Jan 09, 2025 167   Jacksonville St. W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 162   Kennesaw St. W 86-78 77%    
  Jan 18, 2025 131   @ Middle Tennessee L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 23, 2025 101   @ Louisiana Tech L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 127   @ Sam Houston St. L 78-79 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 140   UTEP W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 201   New Mexico St. W 78-69 80%    
  Feb 06, 2025 162   @ Kennesaw St. W 83-81 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 167   @ Jacksonville St. W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 131   Middle Tennessee W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 20, 2025 127   Sam Houston St. W 81-76 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 101   Louisiana Tech W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 27, 2025 140   @ UTEP W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 201   @ New Mexico St. W 75-72 61%    
  Mar 06, 2025 248   Florida International W 83-71 86%    
  Mar 08, 2025 81   Liberty W 71-70 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 6.3 4.9 2.5 0.9 0.2 21.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.7 6.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.3 7.0 4.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.9 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.8 7.5 10.8 13.0 14.3 14.1 12.2 9.3 5.5 2.6 0.9 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 98.1% 2.5    2.4 0.1
15-3 89.9% 4.9    4.0 0.9 0.0
14-4 68.4% 6.3    4.0 2.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 37.5% 4.6    1.9 2.0 0.7 0.1
12-6 13.2% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 13.8 5.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 57.9% 50.5% 7.4% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.9%
17-1 0.9% 51.1% 43.5% 7.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 13.4%
16-2 2.6% 39.3% 38.5% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.6 1.3%
15-3 5.5% 32.5% 32.4% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.1 3.7 0.2%
14-4 9.3% 28.6% 28.6% 0.0% 12.0 0.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.6 0.0%
13-5 12.2% 23.3% 23.3% 12.2 0.2 2.0 0.7 0.0 9.3
12-6 14.1% 19.3% 19.3% 12.4 0.1 1.6 0.9 0.1 11.4
11-7 14.3% 15.2% 15.2% 12.6 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 12.2
10-8 13.0% 11.1% 11.1% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 11.5
9-9 10.8% 9.6% 9.6% 13.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.8
8-10 7.5% 5.8% 5.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.0
7-11 4.8% 4.4% 4.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.6
6-12 2.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.1 0.1 0.0 2.7
5-13 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.0% 16.9% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7 9.1 4.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 83.0 0.1%