Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.8 #228
Expected Predictive Rating -3.6 #225
Pace 60.4 #359
Improvement +0.4 #163

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #320 F D C D+ C
Defense #112 B D C+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #48 1.00 #338 -0.3 #188
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #137 0.71 #247 +0.7 #141
Three Pointers 34% #322 0.79 #360 -7.6 #351
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #356 -7.2 #353
Freethrows 16.2 #245 69% #289 11.2 #270
Second Chance 31.9% #146 0.83 #360 0.26 #289
Turnovers 16.8% #198
Total Offense -5.8 #320

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #294 1.03 #40 +4.5 #46
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #346 0.74 #136 +2.7 #14
Three Pointers 51% #8 0.95 #92 -3.4 #315
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #70 +3.8 #68
Freethrows 17.3 #187 71% #98 12.3 #160
Second Chance 34.1% #311 1.07 #225 0.36 #293
Turnovers 17.2% #131
Total Defense +1.9 #112

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #178 1.0% #266
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.3% #361 -8.0% #46
Possession Length 18.7 #311 18.1 #299
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #268 0.12 #37
Improvement +1.4 #104 -1.0 #256

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.1% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.3
.500 or above 19.8% 30.3% 11.1%
.500 or above in Conference 23.9% 36.5% 13.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.1% 3.4% 10.2%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round1.4% 2.0% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Home) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 103 - 14
Quad 49 - 313 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 80 @Nevada L 50 - 77 10% -16  0 - 1 -17 -13 F D- F -7 B F B+
 Sat, Nov 15 325 Jackson St. W 68 - 51 81% +3  1 - 1 +4 -10 F D- F +15 A+ D B-
 Wed, Nov 19 188 @Indiana St. L 51 - 60 31% -5  1 - 2 -8 -22 F F D +15 A+ A- C-
 Wed, Nov 26 188 Indiana St. W 75 - 73 54% +1  2 - 2 -3 +3 B- A+ F -5 D B D-
 Sat, Nov 29 347 Alcorn St. W 83 - 58 86% +10  3 - 2 +10 +12 C A+ A+ +0 B C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 251 @Georgia Southern L 69 - 77 43% -4  3 - 3 -10 -3 B- F B -7 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 312 Louisiana W 65 - 44 78% +11  4 - 3 +9 -1 F A- F +13 A- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 172 @Tulane L 53 - 61 29% -6  4 - 4 -6 -9 F F F +1 A+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 29 256 UTEP W 75 - 63 66% +11  5 - 4 1 - 0 +4 +5 B+ F A -0 A+ F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 128 @Middle Tennessee L 51 - 88 20% -19  5 - 5 1 - 1 -32 -8 D+ F F -32 F B+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 162 @Western Kentucky L 61 - 66 26% -7  5 - 6 1 - 2 -2 -5 F B A+ +2 A+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 94 Liberty L 56 - 72 27% -8  5 - 7 1 - 3 -13 -10 D- F A+ -6 A F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 295 Delaware W 70 - 68 OT 74% -5  6 - 7 2 - 3 -9 -3 F C D+ -5 C F C
 Wed, Jan 14 128 Middle Tennessee W 59 - 58 39% -10  7 - 7 3 - 3 +0 -8 F F A+ +8 A+ F A
 Sat, Jan 17 216 @Jacksonville St. L 60 - 64 37% -10  7 - 8 3 - 4 -4 -0 F B+ C- -5 C D+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 150 Kennesaw St. L 70 - 71 45%
 Wed, Jan 28 256 @UTEP L 62 - 64 43%
 Sat, Jan 31 124 @Sam Houston St. L 64 - 73 19%
 Wed, Feb 4 133 New Mexico St. L 64 - 66 41%
 Sat, Feb 7 124 Sam Houston St. L 67 - 70 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 179 @Missouri St. L 60 - 66 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 192 @Florida International L 67 - 72 33%
 Wed, Feb 18 216 Jacksonville St. W 64 - 61 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 150 @Kennesaw St. L 67 - 74 24%
 Thu, Feb 26 179 Missouri St. W 64 - 63 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 192 Florida International W 70 - 69 54%
 Thu, Mar 5 94 @Liberty L 59 - 71 13%
 Sat, Mar 7 295 @Delaware W 62 - 61 54%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 12 -4 -6 F D C +2 B D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.2 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.6 2.5 0.2 6.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 5.0 0.8 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 6.7 2.1 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 7.1 5.2 0.4 0.0 13.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 6.4 7.5 1.2 0.0 16.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 5.4 7.7 2.1 0.0 16.3 10th
11th 0.2 1.6 5.1 6.0 2.1 0.2 15.1 11th
12th 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 2.9 12th
Total 0.4 2.7 7.3 13.1 17.5 18.8 16.3 11.9 7.0 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 15.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.3% 15.5% 15.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 1.1% 10.5% 10.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
12-8 3.6% 6.6% 6.6% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.3
11-9 7.0% 4.2% 4.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.7
10-10 11.9% 1.9% 1.9% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.6
9-11 16.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.2 0.2 0.0 16.1
8-12 18.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 18.6
7-13 17.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 17.5
6-14 13.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.1
5-15 7.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.2
4-16 2.7% 2.7
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.9 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%