Jackson St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#284
Expected Predictive Rating-6.8#278
Pace71.6#90
Improvement+1.3#123

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#319
First Shot-5.7#326
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#166
Layup/Dunks-4.2#323
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#255
Freethrows-0.9#243
Improvement+2.3#66

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#214
First Shot-1.2#217
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#208
Layups/Dunks+1.3#121
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#165
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#346
Freethrows+2.5#37
Improvement-1.0#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 15.1% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 6.6% 6.8% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 98.6%
Conference Champion 7.1% 7.2% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.7% 13.7% 11.4%
First Round8.0% 8.0% 8.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 50 - 10
Quad 30 - 40 - 14
Quad 414 - 514 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 3   @ Houston L 40-97 1%     0 - 1 -31.8 -18.2 -15.6
  Nov 09, 2024 107   @ High Point L 71-80 11%     0 - 2 -2.5 -4.4 +2.0
  Nov 12, 2024 44   @ Xavier L 57-94 4%     0 - 3 -22.9 -10.8 -10.7
  Nov 16, 2024 57   @ Vanderbilt L 81-94 5%     0 - 4 -0.7 +10.2 -10.3
  Nov 20, 2024 115   @ Western Kentucky L 62-79 13%     0 - 5 -11.6 -8.2 -2.6
  Nov 22, 2024 22   @ Kentucky L 59-108 2%     0 - 6 -30.8 -17.7 -6.1
  Nov 24, 2024 110   @ Lipscomb L 53-77 12%     0 - 7 -18.0 -16.6 -1.6
  Dec 02, 2024 105   @ Saint Louis L 66-74 11%     0 - 8 -1.2 +0.9 -2.5
  Dec 05, 2024 93   @ Arkansas St. L 64-66 9%     0 - 9 +6.4 -7.2 +13.7
  Dec 08, 2024 8   @ Iowa St. L 58-100 1%     0 - 10 -21.5 -7.1 -11.9
  Dec 20, 2024 143   @ UTEP L 61-67 16%     0 - 11 -2.3 -7.4 +4.9
  Dec 21, 2024 100   Akron L 50-68 14%     0 - 12 -13.3 -21.8 +8.9
  Dec 28, 2024 161   @ California Baptist L 73-79 18%     0 - 13 -3.2 -6.3 +3.6
  Jan 04, 2025 320   @ Alcorn St. W 72-69 51%     1 - 13 1 - 0 -4.0 +2.8 -6.5
  Jan 11, 2025 308   Alabama St. W 77-70 66%     2 - 13 2 - 0 -4.0 -1.4 -2.6
  Jan 13, 2025 360   Alabama A&M W 103-93 3OT 83%     3 - 13 3 - 0 -6.9 -9.0 -0.9
  Jan 18, 2025 348   @ Prairie View W 79-70 62%     4 - 13 4 - 0 -0.9 -0.2 -0.8
  Jan 20, 2025 274   @ Texas Southern L 73-81 39%     4 - 14 4 - 1 -11.8 -0.3 -11.4
  Jan 25, 2025 279   Bethune-Cookman W 86-81 59%     5 - 14 5 - 1 -4.0 +9.7 -13.8
  Jan 27, 2025 340   Florida A&M L 62-72 76%     5 - 15 5 - 2 -24.1 -19.2 -4.6
  Feb 01, 2025 339   @ Grambling St. W 65-50 59%     6 - 15 6 - 2 +5.8 -2.4 +10.1
  Feb 03, 2025 224   @ Southern L 89-91 OT 29%     6 - 16 6 - 3 -3.0 +6.9 -9.6
  Feb 08, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 78-57 98%    
  Feb 10, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 88-73 92%    
  Feb 15, 2025 340   @ Florida A&M W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 17, 2025 279   @ Bethune-Cookman L 69-72 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 320   Alcorn St. W 71-66 70%    
  Mar 01, 2025 274   Texas Southern W 72-70 59%    
  Mar 03, 2025 348   Prairie View W 80-72 79%    
  Mar 06, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-75 80%    
  Mar 08, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 75-59 93%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.4 2.9 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 2.6 13.9 14.1 3.4 34.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 13.6 14.8 3.0 0.0 33.8 3rd
4th 0.7 6.1 7.5 1.1 15.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.1 0.7 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.0 13.2 24.4 30.6 20.4 6.3 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 45.8% 2.9    1.1 1.6 0.2
14-4 16.5% 3.4    0.6 1.8 1.0 0.1
13-5 2.6% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 1.7 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 6.3% 25.0% 25.0% 15.7 0.5 1.0 4.7
14-4 20.4% 18.9% 18.9% 16.0 0.0 3.9 16.6
13-5 30.6% 16.5% 16.5% 16.0 5.0 25.5
12-6 24.4% 12.2% 12.2% 16.0 3.0 21.4
11-7 13.2% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 1.3 12.0
10-8 4.0% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.2 3.7
9-9 1.0% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.1 0.9
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 14.5 85.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 15.7 33.8 66.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%