Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#107
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#144
Pace73.7#84
Improvement-1.1#269

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#73
First Shot+3.3#92
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#115
Layup/Dunks-1.5#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#12
Freethrows-1.6#270
Improvement+1.9#45

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#171
First Shot+0.6#149
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#243
Layups/Dunks+0.8#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#192
Freethrows+1.2#116
Improvement-2.9#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.9% 38.8% 30.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 98.9% 99.2% 96.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 98.9% 98.0%
Conference Champion 47.1% 48.3% 37.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round37.9% 38.8% 30.8%
Second Round4.7% 5.0% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 88.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 11 - 5
Quad 34 - 24 - 7
Quad 417 - 321 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 199 Queens W 81-74 74%     1 - 0 +4.6 +0.2 +4.2
  Fri, Nov 7 66 @George Mason L 90-96 24%     1 - 1 +5.6 +14.5 -8.5
  Tue, Nov 11 260 @Coastal Carolina L 66-72 74%     1 - 2 -8.6 -6.6 -1.8
  Sat, Nov 15 191 Mercer W 105-69 81%     2 - 2 +30.9 +14.1 +11.9
  Tue, Nov 18 22 @Arkansas L 83-84 10%     2 - 3 +17.0 +17.4 -0.4
  Sun, Nov 23 312 @Jackson St. W 80-62 82%     3 - 3 +12.6 +14.0 +0.2
  Tue, Nov 25 49 @Nebraska L 73-80 18%     3 - 4 +6.9 +7.6 -0.8
  Sat, Nov 29 352 South Carolina St. W 101-79 96%     4 - 4 +6.4 +17.2 -11.8
  Tue, Dec 2 230 @LIU Brooklyn W 94-92 OT 70%     5 - 4 +1.0 +13.4 -12.6
  Sat, Dec 6 260 Coastal Carolina W 84-71 89%    
  Thu, Dec 18 340 @North Dakota W 84-72 88%    
  Sun, Dec 28 30 @Texas Tech L 72-84 12%    
  Wed, Dec 31 289 @Longwood W 84-76 78%    
  Sat, Jan 3 360 Gardner-Webb W 93-71 98%    
  Wed, Jan 7 288 Charleston Southern W 86-72 90%    
  Sat, Jan 10 278 @South Carolina Upstate W 83-75 76%    
  Wed, Jan 14 93 High Point W 85-83 57%    
  Sat, Jan 17 210 @UNC Asheville W 81-77 65%    
  Wed, Jan 21 290 Radford W 90-76 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 257 @Presbyterian W 73-66 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 210 UNC Asheville W 84-74 82%    
  Wed, Feb 4 290 @Radford W 87-79 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 289 Longwood W 87-73 90%    
  Thu, Feb 12 360 @Gardner-Webb W 90-74 92%    
  Thu, Feb 19 278 South Carolina Upstate W 86-72 89%    
  Sat, Feb 21 93 @High Point L 82-86 36%    
  Thu, Feb 26 288 @Charleston Southern W 83-75 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 257 Presbyterian W 76-63 87%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 4.2 10.5 15.7 11.5 4.3 47.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 8.3 12.3 9.9 3.3 37.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 3.7 3.3 1.2 0.1 10.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.9 7.4 12.5 17.8 20.5 19.1 11.5 4.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 4.3    4.3
15-1 100.0% 11.5    10.7 0.9
14-2 82.6% 15.7    11.6 4.1 0.0
13-3 51.3% 10.5    5.6 4.6 0.2
12-4 23.6% 4.2    1.4 2.2 0.6 0.0
11-5 6.7% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 47.1% 47.1 33.7 12.2 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 4.3% 60.8% 60.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 1.7
15-1 11.5% 54.2% 54.2% 12.5 0.4 3.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.3
14-2 19.1% 47.0% 47.0% 12.9 0.1 2.6 4.3 1.8 0.1 10.1
13-3 20.5% 40.5% 40.5% 13.3 1.1 4.0 2.8 0.4 12.2
12-4 17.8% 33.5% 33.5% 13.6 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.8
11-5 12.5% 25.7% 25.7% 13.9 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.0 9.3
10-6 7.4% 23.1% 23.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 5.7
9-7 3.9% 15.2% 15.2% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.3
8-8 1.9% 14.6% 14.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.6
7-9 0.8% 12.3% 12.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7
6-10 0.3% 7.3% 7.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-11 0.1% 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 37.9% 37.9% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 8.4 14.4 10.3 3.1 0.4 62.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 10.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 6.0 16.1 56.0 14.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%