Winthrop
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#205
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#186
Pace78.2#12
Improvement-1.8#272

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#170
First Shot-0.7#200
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#110
Layup/Dunks+2.7#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#351
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#285
Freethrows+3.4#24
Improvement+1.8#84

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#253
First Shot-0.7#202
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#324
Layups/Dunks+0.1#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#44
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#281
Freethrows-0.3#202
Improvement-3.7#340
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 10.2% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 86.9% 94.8% 77.2%
.500 or above in Conference 81.4% 92.3% 68.1%
Conference Champion 1.9% 3.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round9.0% 10.0% 7.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 414 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 227   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-67 65%     1 - 0 +9.0 +1.9 +5.4
  Nov 11, 2024 118   @ Virginia Tech L 52-58 24%     1 - 1 -0.9 -14.1 +12.6
  Nov 15, 2024 208   William & Mary W 86-85 60%     2 - 1 -3.9 -1.9 -2.1
  Nov 16, 2024 254   Georgia Southern L 87-89 71%     2 - 2 -9.8 -6.3 -3.2
  Nov 17, 2024 295   NC Central W 77-75 77%     3 - 2 -7.8 -1.7 -6.1
  Nov 22, 2024 27   @ Louisville L 61-76 5%     3 - 3 +1.9 -11.0 +14.5
  Nov 25, 2024 327   LIU Brooklyn W 87-65 84%     4 - 3 +9.3 +9.4 -0.8
  Dec 03, 2024 213   @ Queens W 86-78 43%     5 - 3 +7.6 +5.1 +1.9
  Dec 07, 2024 309   Coastal Carolina W 96-89 80%     6 - 3 -4.0 +16.4 -20.5
  Dec 17, 2024 82   @ Florida St. L 64-82 13%     6 - 4 -8.2 -8.7 +2.0
  Dec 21, 2024 222   Mercer W 102-97 64%     7 - 4 -0.9 +7.6 -9.4
  Dec 29, 2024 53   @ Indiana L 68-77 9%     7 - 5 +3.6 -0.8 +4.7
  Jan 02, 2025 346   South Carolina Upstate W 95-76 87%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +4.5 +11.8 -7.8
  Jan 04, 2025 204   @ Radford L 67-87 40%     8 - 6 1 - 1 -19.6 -4.5 -16.2
  Jan 08, 2025 236   @ Gardner-Webb L 83-89 49%     8 - 7 1 - 2 -7.9 +6.7 -14.5
  Jan 11, 2025 190   Longwood W 95-76 57%     9 - 7 2 - 2 +15.1 +14.0 +0.2
  Jan 15, 2025 285   Charleston Southern W 102-97 3OT 75%     10 - 7 3 - 2 -4.3 -3.0 -2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 172   @ UNC Asheville L 84-93 34%     10 - 8 3 - 3 -6.9 +4.4 -10.7
  Jan 25, 2025 107   @ High Point L 62-84 20%     10 - 9 3 - 4 -15.5 -11.5 -4.4
  Jan 29, 2025 283   Presbyterian W 76-67 75%     11 - 9 4 - 4 -0.2 -0.4 +0.5
  Feb 01, 2025 236   Gardner-Webb W 96-93 68%     12 - 9 5 - 4 -3.9 +10.8 -15.0
  Feb 05, 2025 285   @ Charleston Southern W 79-77 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 346   @ South Carolina Upstate W 88-81 74%    
  Feb 12, 2025 204   Radford W 77-75 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 107   High Point L 81-85 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 283   @ Presbyterian W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 26, 2025 190   @ Longwood L 80-83 36%    
  Mar 01, 2025 172   UNC Asheville W 83-82 54%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.3 3.3 4.8 0.6 9.0 2nd
3rd 1.2 11.6 14.2 3.0 0.0 30.0 3rd
4th 0.6 10.1 13.2 2.0 0.0 25.9 4th
5th 0.2 6.4 11.5 2.3 20.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 5.5 1.5 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.4 2.2 1.0 0.1 3.7 7th
8th 0.2 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.7 4.5 13.5 24.2 27.4 19.5 8.7 1.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 60.1% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.2
11-5 10.7% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 1.6% 14.6% 14.6% 13.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
11-5 8.7% 13.4% 13.4% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 7.5
10-6 19.5% 12.7% 12.7% 14.8 0.1 0.5 1.7 0.2 17.0
9-7 27.4% 9.2% 9.2% 15.2 0.3 1.5 0.7 24.9
8-8 24.2% 7.4% 7.4% 15.3 0.0 1.1 0.7 22.4
7-9 13.5% 5.5% 5.5% 15.6 0.3 0.5 12.7
6-10 4.5% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.2
5-11 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 15.0 0.2 1.4 5.2 2.3 90.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.5 52.2 43.5 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 0.3%