Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.8 #130
Expected Predictive Rating +0.7 #155
Pace 70.9 #123
Improvement -3.8 #331

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #118 C- B- B B B
Defense #172 C C C D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #171 1.07 #286 -1.7 #247
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #319 0.61 #344 -3.5 #338
Three Pointers 48% #51 1.04 #156 +4.0 #61
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #221 -1.3 #220
Freethrows 19.6 #79 73% #191 14.3 #87
Second Chance 33.8% #96 1.05 #170 0.35 #101
Turnovers 14.8% #78
Total Offense +2.0 #118

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #203 1.14 #151 +0.7 #146
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #252 0.87 #327 -0.2 #194
Three Pointers 44% #102 1.01 #185 -1.3 #242
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #202 -0.8 #204
Freethrows 18.6 #249 73% #202 13.6 #258
Second Chance 30.4% #169 1.10 #261 0.33 #220
Turnovers 16.6% #175
Total Defense -0.1 #172

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #67 0.5% #217
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.4% #246 1.0% #200
Possession Length 16.9 #131 17.3 #178
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #219 0.14 #79
Improvement -4.4 #357 +0.7 #141

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.9% 28.4% 23.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 99.1% 99.7% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 39.4% 46.7% 24.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round26.9% 28.4% 23.6%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Away) - 67.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 35 - 25 - 7
Quad 414 - 519 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 177 Queens W 81 - 74 62% +2  1 - 0 +6 +1 F A+ C +5 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 86 @George Mason L 90 - 96 22% -0  1 - 1 +4 +14 B+ F A+ -9 F B A-
 Tue, Nov 11 252 @Coastal Carolina L 66 - 72 65% -7  1 - 2 -8 -7 F F C -0 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 149 Mercer W 105 - 69 66% +16  2 - 2 +34 +14 B+ A- A+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 20 @Arkansas L 83 - 84 5% -1  2 - 3 +19 +16 A+ A+ A+ +3 A C- C
 Sun, Nov 23 325 @Jackson St. W 80 - 62 81% +8  3 - 3 +11 +10 C C+ A +2 D- C B-
 Tue, Nov 25 14 @Nebraska L 73 - 80 5% -2  3 - 4 +14 +12 A+ B A+ +2 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 359 South Carolina St. W 101 - 79 96% +14  4 - 4 +4 +15 A A+ F -13 F D F
 Tue, Dec 2 222 @LIU Brooklyn W 94 - 92 OT 59% +4  5 - 4 +1 +14 F A+ A+ -12 F F D
 Sat, Dec 6 252 Coastal Carolina L 84 - 88 82% +1  5 - 5 -12 +9 D A+ C- -21 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 18 297 @North Dakota L 88 - 90 74% +2  5 - 6 -7 +12 B+ A- A+ -19 D+ F F
 Sun, Dec 28 15 @Texas Tech L 57 - 87 5% -26  5 - 7 -9 -7 F D- F -1 C- C A+
 Wed, Dec 31 262 @Longwood L 70 - 82 67% -7  5 - 8 0 - 1 -15 -2 F C+ A+ -13 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 77 98% -5  6 - 8 1 - 1 -11 +7 C F B+ -18 F A F
 Wed, Jan 7 234 Charleston Southern W 81 - 77 80% -2  7 - 8 2 - 1 -3 -3 D- C D- -1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 303 @South Carolina Upstate W 71 - 50 75% +15  8 - 8 3 - 1 +16 +1 C C F +16 A+ C A-
 Wed, Jan 14 98 High Point W 92 - 75 48% +15  9 - 8 4 - 1 +19 +17 B+ A+ A+ +3 B+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 205 @UNC Asheville W 69 - 67 56% +6  10 - 8 5 - 1 +2 -3 F C- F +6 A+ A- F
 Wed, Jan 21 253 Radford W 76 - 75 82% -2  11 - 8 6 - 1 -7 -2 B F C -5 F B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 266 @Presbyterian W 74 - 69 68%
 Sat, Jan 31 205 UNC Asheville W 78 - 70 76%
 Wed, Feb 4 253 @Radford W 84 - 80 64%
 Sat, Feb 7 262 Longwood W 83 - 73 83%
 Thu, Feb 12 363 @Gardner-Webb W 89 - 71 95%
 Thu, Feb 19 303 South Carolina Upstate W 82 - 69 89%
 Sat, Feb 21 98 @High Point L 78 - 84 28%
 Thu, Feb 26 234 @Charleston Southern W 81 - 78 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 266 Presbyterian W 77 - 66 84%
Totals 17 - 11 12 - 4 +2 +2 C- B- B +0 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.9 13.6 15.6 4.7 39.4 1st
2nd 0.2 3.2 13.1 20.5 15.5 2.8 55.3 2nd
3rd 0.6 2.2 1.1 0.1 4.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.5 5.7 14.8 25.6 29.1 18.4 4.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 4.7    4.7
14-2 84.9% 15.6    10.1 5.6
13-3 46.8% 13.6    5.9 7.7 0.0
12-4 19.2% 4.9    1.5 3.1 0.3 0.0
11-5 3.8% 0.6    0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 39.4% 39.4 22.2 16.6 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 4.7% 39.8% 39.8% 12.4 0.1 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.8
14-2 18.4% 34.7% 34.7% 13.2 0.9 3.5 1.9 0.1 12.0
13-3 29.1% 28.7% 28.7% 13.7 0.2 3.0 4.3 0.8 20.8
12-4 25.6% 23.9% 23.9% 14.0 0.0 1.3 3.5 1.3 0.0 19.5
11-5 14.8% 20.7% 20.7% 14.4 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.1 11.7
10-6 5.7% 16.5% 16.5% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 4.7
9-7 1.5% 10.0% 10.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
8-8 0.3% 5.1% 5.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 26.9% 26.9% 0.0% 13.7 73.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 12.4 4.3 56.4 36.6 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%