North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.4#333
Expected Predictive Rating-10.5#322
Pace71.6#124
Improvement+0.4#157

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#332
First Shot-3.3#267
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#342
Layup/Dunks-0.4#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#251
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#222
Freethrows-0.5#218
Improvement+0.8#112

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#313
First Shot-0.6#184
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#356
Layups/Dunks-2.1#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#47
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#132
Freethrows-1.6#291
Improvement-0.5#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 12.8% 19.2% 5.8%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 34.5% 23.1% 47.1%
First Four0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Home) - 52.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 47 - 118 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 15 @Alabama L 62-91 1%     0 - 1 -8.5 -7.9 +0.9
  Thu, Nov 6 272 UC Riverside L 70-74 45%     0 - 2 -13.0 -8.8 -4.1
  Sun, Nov 9 212 Cal St. Northridge L 85-93 35%     0 - 3 -14.3 +1.5 -15.2
  Sat, Nov 15 272 @UC Riverside W 76-74 24%     1 - 3 -1.0 -3.6 +2.5
  Wed, Nov 19 36 @Creighton L 60-75 2%     1 - 4 +1.2 +0.0 -0.1
  Sat, Nov 22 230 Coastal Carolina L 58-75 28%     1 - 5 -21.2 -17.2 -3.1
  Sun, Nov 23 356 @Western Illinois W 78-69 51%     2 - 5 -1.8 -2.6 +0.4
  Fri, Nov 28 109 @Hawaii L 55-92 6%     2 - 6 -30.2 -15.1 -11.5
  Wed, Dec 3 177 @Idaho L 58-90 13%     2 - 7 -30.2 -14.5 -15.9
  Sat, Dec 6 209 Montana L 75-79 34%     2 - 8 -10.2 -0.7 -9.5
  Sat, Dec 13 356 Western Illinois L 66-69 OT 73%     2 - 9 -19.8 -16.3 -3.4
  Thu, Dec 18 125 Winthrop W 90-88 18%     3 - 9 +1.3 +13.9 -12.6
  Sun, Dec 21 25 @Nebraska L 55-78 1%     3 - 10 -4.9 -6.7 +0.7
  Thu, Jan 1 303 Oral Roberts W 76-75 52%    
  Sat, Jan 3 172 South Dakota St. L 72-79 26%    
  Thu, Jan 8 221 @Nebraska Omaha L 70-80 18%    
  Sat, Jan 10 343 @UMKC L 71-73 44%    
  Thu, Jan 15 135 St. Thomas L 70-79 20%    
  Sat, Jan 17 291 South Dakota L 81-82 48%    
  Thu, Jan 22 303 @Oral Roberts L 73-78 31%    
  Sat, Jan 24 290 @Denver L 76-83 27%    
  Thu, Jan 29 135 @St. Thomas L 67-82 8%    
  Thu, Feb 5 221 Nebraska Omaha L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 290 Denver L 79-80 48%    
  Wed, Feb 11 291 @South Dakota L 78-85 27%    
  Sat, Feb 14 155 North Dakota St. L 70-78 24%    
  Thu, Feb 19 343 UMKC W 74-70 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 172 @South Dakota St. L 69-82 13%    
  Sat, Feb 28 155 @North Dakota St. L 67-81 10%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.8 3.0 0.5 10.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 6.9 4.4 0.6 0.0 14.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.8 8.7 5.6 0.8 0.0 19.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 5.8 9.9 5.9 1.0 0.0 24.0 8th
9th 0.8 3.5 7.0 7.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 22.5 9th
Total 0.8 3.5 8.3 13.5 17.3 17.6 15.2 10.9 6.8 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 92.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 47.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 15.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 3.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.2% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 0.6% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-6 1.6% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.1 1.6
9-7 3.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 3.4
8-8 6.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 6.7
7-9 10.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 10.7
6-10 15.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 15.1
5-11 17.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.5
4-12 17.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.3
3-13 13.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.5
2-14 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.3
1-15 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
0-16 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%