Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.8 #17
Expected Predictive Rating +18.3 #16
Pace 82.8 #4
Improvement -3.0 #314

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #2 A+ A- A+ B- A-
Defense #53 A B+ D+ B+ A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #233 1.31 #41 +1.7 #117
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #350 1.14 #1 -2.4 #298
Three Pointers 54% #8 1.09 #78 +8.7 #6
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #17 +7.9 #17
Freethrows 18.5 #122 76% #87 14.0 #101
Second Chance 35.7% #48 1.13 #71 0.40 #42
Turnovers 12.0% #3
Total Offense +12.9 #2

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #281 0.96 #11 +5.5 #31
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #23 0.74 #139 -2.5 #339
Three Pointers 37% #288 0.95 #91 +3.4 #59
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #25 +6.4 #25
Freethrows 15.6 #94 66% #8 10.4 #47
Second Chance 28.6% #101 0.92 #41 0.26 #54
Turnovers 15.1% #259
Total Defense +5.0 #53

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #33 -2.4% #25
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.6% #24 -10.3% #31
Possession Length 14.2 #3 17.9 #276
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #29 0.15 #98
Improvement -3.0 #331 -0.1 #192

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.6% 3.4% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 10.6% 13.5% 4.9%
Top 4 Seed 53.3% 61.1% 38.1%
Top 6 Seed 87.7% 92.3% 78.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.2% 99.7% 98.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.1% 99.6% 98.1%
Average Seed 4.5 4.2 5.2
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.7% 97.8% 91.5%
Conference Champion 21.2% 26.6% 10.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.7% 0.2% 1.6%
First Round99.0% 99.6% 97.8%
Second Round85.4% 88.4% 79.7%
Sweet Sixteen47.2% 50.7% 40.5%
Elite Eight20.3% 22.3% 16.4%
Final Four8.9% 10.0% 6.8%
Championship Game3.9% 4.3% 3.1%
National Champion1.5% 1.6% 1.2%

Next Game: Tennessee (Home) - 66.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b6 - 211 - 9
Quad 26 - 217 - 11
Quad 35 - 021 - 11
Quad 42 - 023 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 297 North Dakota W 91 - 62 99% +17  1 - 0 +18 +6 B F C +10 C A+ D
 Sat, Nov 8 18 @St. John's W 103 - 96 40% +5  2 - 0 +27 +23 A+ A A+ +3 C A+ C+
 Thu, Nov 13 5 Purdue L 80 - 87 49% -2  2 - 1 +11 +15 A+ D- A+ -4 A- B- B-
 Wed, Nov 19 9 Illinois W 90 - 86 40% +1  3 - 1 +24 +15 A+ A+ C +9 A A+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 6 Gonzaga L 85 - 95 39% -1  3 - 2 +11 +14 A+ B- A- -3 A+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 114 UNLV W 115 - 76 90% +16  4 - 2 +42 +31 A+ A+ A +7 A- A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 100 Maryland W 105 - 72 88% +20  5 - 2 +38 +26 A+ A+ B- +9 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 32 Clemson W 90 - 84 74% +9  6 - 2 +17 +22 A+ A+ A+ -5 B A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 345 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 55 99% +27  7 - 2 +27 +8 F C+ A+ +15 B+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 2 Arizona L 75 - 96 30% -7  7 - 3 +2 +8 A+ F D -4 B- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 74 South Florida W 104 - 93 89% +8  8 - 3 +16 +21 A A+ B -7 A F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 150 Kennesaw St. W 92 - 81 94% +18  9 - 3 +12 +9 C- B- A+ +2 B+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 83 Yale W 102 - 78 89% +19  10 - 3 +28 +29 A- A+ A+ -0 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 25 Kentucky W 89 - 74 68% +11  11 - 3 1 - 0 +28 +20 A+ A A +8 A+ C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 21 @Vanderbilt L 90 - 96 41% -5  11 - 4 1 - 1 +14 +11 F A+ A- +4 A+ C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 38 Texas L 88 - 92 77% -5  11 - 5 1 - 2 +6 +15 A B A+ -9 B C F
 Tue, Jan 13 76 @Mississippi St. W 97 - 82 75% +5  12 - 5 2 - 2 +26 +22 A+ A- A+ +3 A+ A F
 Sat, Jan 17 57 @Oklahoma W 83 - 81 68% -2  13 - 5 3 - 2 +15 +9 C+ B B- +6 A+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 24 22 Tennessee W 85 - 81 66%
 Tue, Jan 27 50 Missouri W 91 - 81 83%
 Sun, Feb 1 10 @Florida L 85 - 91 30%
 Tue, Feb 3 34 Texas A&M W 95 - 88 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 27 @Auburn L 88 - 89 50%
 Wed, Feb 11 62 @Mississippi W 86 - 80 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 69 South Carolina W 89 - 76 88%
 Tue, Feb 17 20 Arkansas W 95 - 91 63%
 Wed, Feb 18 20 Arkansas W 95 - 91 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 43 @LSU W 88 - 85 61%
 Wed, Feb 25 76 Mississippi St. W 92 - 79 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 22 @Tennessee L 82 - 84 44%
 Tue, Mar 3 24 @Georgia L 95 - 96 47%
 Sat, Mar 7 27 Auburn W 92 - 86 72%
Totals 22 - 10 12 - 7 +18 +13 A+ A- A+ +5 A B+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.8 7.6 6.3 2.5 0.5 21.2 1st
2nd 0.3 5.1 10.2 5.0 1.0 0.0 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.4 8.1 4.0 0.4 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 6.0 4.6 0.5 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 5.7 0.8 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.5 4.4 2.0 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 3.0 0.2 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 0.8 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.3 1.0 0.2 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 6.4 11.7 16.7 19.3 18.5 13.0 7.2 2.5 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-2 98.8% 2.5    2.3 0.2
15-3 86.8% 6.3    4.5 1.7 0.1
14-4 58.3% 7.6    3.0 3.6 0.8 0.1
13-5 20.7% 3.8    0.5 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.2% 21.2 10.8 7.1 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 42.4% 57.6% 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.5% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 1.9 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.2% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 2.5 0.9 2.8 2.7 0.8 0.1 100.0%
14-4 13.0% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 3.1 0.5 2.3 5.7 3.8 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 18.5% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 3.7 0.1 1.2 6.0 7.5 3.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 19.3% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 4.4 0.1 0.3 3.2 6.9 6.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 16.7% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 5.1 0.0 0.9 3.5 6.8 4.5 1.0 0.1 100.0%
10-8 11.7% 100.0% 5.5% 94.4% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 6.4% 99.6% 4.6% 95.0% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.6%
8-10 2.8% 95.5% 2.3% 93.2% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 95.4%
7-11 1.2% 69.7% 1.7% 67.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 69.1%
6-12 0.3% 25.0% 1.7% 23.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 23.7%
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.2% 14.3% 84.9% 4.5 0.8 99.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 79.5 20.5