Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.8#11
Expected Predictive Rating+20.7#12
Pace83.4#7
Improvement-0.1#198

Offense
Total Offense+13.3#2
First Shot+13.2#1
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#166
Layup/Dunks+6.0#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.6#2
Freethrows+2.5#59
Improvement+0.3#153

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#43
First Shot+3.3#75
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#63
Layups/Dunks+0.8#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#105
Freethrows+2.6#44
Improvement-0.4#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.0% 3.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 15.7% 15.8% 6.0%
Top 2 Seed 38.0% 38.0% 16.5%
Top 4 Seed 73.1% 73.1% 63.2%
Top 6 Seed 89.7% 89.8% 75.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.0% 98.0% 94.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.6% 97.6% 93.8%
Average Seed 3.5 3.5 4.5
.500 or above 99.0% 99.1% 95.5%
.500 or above in Conference 91.7% 91.8% 87.2%
Conference Champion 25.6% 25.6% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.5%
First Round97.5% 97.5% 93.2%
Second Round87.4% 87.4% 77.4%
Sweet Sixteen56.9% 57.0% 40.6%
Elite Eight30.2% 30.3% 17.3%
Final Four14.5% 14.6% 1.5%
Championship Game7.0% 7.1% 0.0%
National Champion3.1% 3.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 76 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 8
Quad 27 - 117 - 9
Quad 35 - 021 - 9
Quad 42 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 340 North Dakota W 91-62 99%     1 - 0 +14.9 +7.7 +5.6
  Sat, Nov 8 13 @St. John's W 103-96 42%     2 - 0 +27.9 +21.1 +5.6
  Thu, Nov 13 2 Purdue L 80-87 49%     2 - 1 +12.2 +14.6 -2.5
  Wed, Nov 19 17 Illinois W 90-86 57%     3 - 1 +21.0 +14.7 +5.9
  Mon, Nov 24 4 Gonzaga L 85-95 39%     3 - 2 +11.6 +15.3 -2.8
  Tue, Nov 25 131 UNLV W 115-76 93%     4 - 2 +41.0 +28.9 +7.8
  Wed, Nov 26 86 Maryland W 105-72 88%     5 - 2 +39.1 +27.3 +9.0
  Wed, Dec 3 33 Clemson W 90-84 79%     6 - 2 +16.3 +18.9 -2.7
  Sun, Dec 7 269 Texas San Antonio W 99-71 99.6%   
  Fri, Dec 12 9 Arizona L 89-90 49%    
  Wed, Dec 17 79 South Florida W 98-83 91%    
  Sun, Dec 21 162 Kennesaw St. W 102-83 96%    
  Mon, Dec 29 73 Yale W 94-80 91%    
  Sat, Jan 3 23 Kentucky W 91-84 73%    
  Tue, Jan 6 12 @Vanderbilt L 89-92 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 50 Texas W 92-81 85%    
  Tue, Jan 13 81 @Mississippi St. W 91-82 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 41 @Oklahoma W 90-86 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 16 Tennessee W 86-81 67%    
  Tue, Jan 27 37 Missouri W 92-83 79%    
  Sun, Feb 1 15 @Florida L 87-89 43%    
  Tue, Feb 3 38 Texas A&M W 94-84 81%    
  Sat, Feb 7 20 @Auburn W 88-87 51%    
  Wed, Feb 11 58 @Mississippi W 86-80 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 89 South Carolina W 91-75 92%    
  Tue, Feb 17 22 Arkansas W 92-85 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 29 @LSU W 88-86 57%    
  Wed, Feb 25 81 Mississippi St. W 94-79 90%    
  Sat, Feb 28 16 @Tennessee L 83-84 45%    
  Tue, Mar 3 19 @Georgia W 96-95 51%    
  Sat, Mar 7 20 Auburn W 91-85 72%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.6 7.9 5.1 2.2 0.4 25.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.7 6.9 5.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.8 4.8 0.9 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.2 4.4 1.0 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.4 1.4 0.1 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.4 2.3 0.2 6.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 2.9 0.3 5.3 7th
8th 0.6 2.4 1.1 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.4 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.3 7.1 9.9 12.9 14.9 15.6 13.2 10.0 5.4 2.2 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.7% 2.2    2.2 0.1
16-2 95.0% 5.1    4.4 0.7 0.0
15-3 78.7% 7.9    5.1 2.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 50.1% 6.6    2.7 2.8 1.0 0.1
13-5 18.2% 2.8    0.4 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.6% 25.6 15.1 7.2 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 48.8% 51.2% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.2% 100.0% 43.2% 56.8% 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.4% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.4 3.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 10.0% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 1.7 4.2 4.6 1.1 0.1 100.0%
14-4 13.2% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 2.1 3.6 5.9 3.2 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.6% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 2.6 1.8 5.5 5.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.9% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 3.3 0.6 2.8 5.5 4.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.9% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 4.0 0.2 0.8 3.5 4.5 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 9.9% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 3.4 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-9 7.1% 99.8% 5.6% 94.2% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
8-10 4.3% 95.8% 4.5% 91.4% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 95.6%
7-11 2.1% 80.5% 1.7% 78.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 80.1%
6-12 1.1% 36.3% 1.2% 35.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7 35.5%
5-13 0.5% 4.3% 4.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.3%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 98.0% 18.3% 79.7% 3.5 15.7 22.2 20.4 14.8 10.3 6.3 3.2 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.0 97.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 95.8 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 70.0 30.0