Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#15
Expected Predictive Rating+19.7#14
Pace83.1#5
Improvement-2.6#325

Offense
Total Offense+12.7#2
First Shot+11.5#1
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#92
Layup/Dunks+3.4#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.6#5
Freethrows+1.5#94
Improvement-1.4#286

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#57
First Shot+3.4#76
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#77
Layups/Dunks+2.6#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#148
Freethrows+2.9#30
Improvement-1.2#273
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.8% 5.1% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 15.8% 16.9% 6.7%
Top 4 Seed 53.4% 55.5% 35.7%
Top 6 Seed 80.4% 82.1% 66.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.4% 97.8% 93.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.0% 97.5% 92.8%
Average Seed 4.6 4.5 5.5
.500 or above 99.1% 99.4% 96.5%
.500 or above in Conference 89.2% 90.0% 83.1%
Conference Champion 16.9% 17.5% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four2.2% 2.0% 4.3%
First Round96.4% 96.9% 91.5%
Second Round80.8% 82.1% 69.9%
Sweet Sixteen45.0% 46.4% 32.9%
Elite Eight19.5% 20.3% 12.9%
Final Four8.2% 8.6% 5.0%
Championship Game3.2% 3.4% 1.8%
National Champion1.1% 1.2% 0.7%

Next Game: Yale (Home) - 89.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 9
Quad 27 - 116 - 10
Quad 35 - 020 - 10
Quad 42 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 333 North Dakota W 91-62 99%     1 - 0 +15.6 +7.6 +6.4
  Sat, Nov 8 19 @St. John's W 103-96 42%     2 - 0 +26.4 +22.5 +2.7
  Thu, Nov 13 5 Purdue L 80-87 45%     2 - 1 +11.8 +15.0 -3.4
  Wed, Nov 19 10 Illinois W 90-86 40%     3 - 1 +24.0 +14.6 +8.9
  Mon, Nov 24 6 Gonzaga L 85-95 35%     3 - 2 +11.5 +13.8 -1.4
  Tue, Nov 25 133 UNLV W 115-76 92%     4 - 2 +40.7 +29.9 +6.6
  Wed, Nov 26 94 Maryland W 105-72 86%     5 - 2 +38.9 +26.3 +9.8
  Wed, Dec 3 40 Clemson W 90-84 78%     6 - 2 +15.2 +19.5 -4.4
  Sun, Dec 7 287 Texas San Antonio W 97-55 99%     7 - 2 +32.3 +12.3 +15.9
  Sat, Dec 13 2 Arizona L 75-96 29%     7 - 3 +2.3 +8.3 -4.4
  Wed, Dec 17 79 South Florida W 104-93 89%     8 - 3 +14.9 +20.7 -7.0
  Sun, Dec 21 152 Kennesaw St. W 92-81 93%     9 - 3 +11.5 +8.8 +1.4
  Mon, Dec 29 76 Yale W 95-82 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 20 Kentucky W 89-85 65%    
  Tue, Jan 6 9 @Vanderbilt L 87-93 30%    
  Sat, Jan 10 41 Texas W 92-84 78%    
  Tue, Jan 13 80 @Mississippi St. W 89-81 76%    
  Sat, Jan 17 45 @Oklahoma W 90-87 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 14 Tennessee W 84-81 61%    
  Tue, Jan 27 60 Missouri W 94-82 86%    
  Sun, Feb 1 12 @Florida L 85-89 37%    
  Tue, Feb 3 43 Texas A&M W 96-87 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 34 @Auburn W 89-88 54%    
  Wed, Feb 11 63 @Mississippi W 85-79 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 90 South Carolina W 89-75 90%    
  Tue, Feb 17 23 Arkansas W 94-89 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 39 @LSU W 88-86 58%    
  Wed, Feb 25 80 Mississippi St. W 92-78 89%    
  Sat, Feb 28 14 @Tennessee L 81-84 39%    
  Tue, Mar 3 22 @Georgia L 96-97 44%    
  Sat, Mar 7 34 Auburn W 92-85 74%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.1 5.3 3.1 1.0 0.2 16.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.7 6.5 5.0 1.6 0.2 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 6.2 4.9 1.1 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.6 4.6 5.4 1.2 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 5.5 1.5 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.4 2.4 0.2 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 3.4 0.4 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.2 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 1.8 0.1 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.1 5.5 8.8 12.2 14.7 16.4 14.6 11.2 6.9 3.3 1.0 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 94.3% 3.1    2.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 76.4% 5.3    3.5 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 45.1% 5.1    1.9 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.2% 1.9    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.9% 16.9 9.4 5.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.0% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.3% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 1.8 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.9% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 2.2 1.4 3.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.2% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 2.8 0.9 3.2 4.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.6% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 3.4 0.4 2.1 5.7 4.8 1.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 16.4% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 4.1 0.1 0.7 4.1 6.1 4.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.7% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 5.1 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.2% 99.9% 5.2% 94.7% 5.8 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.4 4.0 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 8.8% 99.7% 4.0% 95.6% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
8-10 5.5% 95.2% 2.8% 92.4% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.3 95.1%
7-11 3.1% 75.9% 1.4% 74.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.8 75.6%
6-12 1.3% 37.8% 0.2% 37.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 37.7%
5-13 0.5% 3.2% 0.6% 2.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.4% 12.5% 84.8% 4.6 4.8 11.0 19.0 18.6 15.6 11.4 6.8 3.6 2.5 2.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 2.7 97.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 82.6 17.4