Mississippi
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.9 #62
Expected Predictive Rating +8.4 #72
Pace 65.2 #278
Improvement +0.0 #187

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #76 C C A+ C+ F
Defense #63 B B- B- C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #364 1.32 #26 -4.2 #319
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% #6 0.81 #96 +6.4 #4
Three Pointers 38% #251 1.03 #158 -1.3 #225
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #154 +0.9 #152
Freethrows 17.9 #156 76% #72 13.6 #120
Second Chance 30.4% #188 1.08 #130 0.33 #156
Turnovers 12.2% #5
Total Offense +4.4 #76

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #329 1.03 #39 +5.7 #28
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #96 0.70 #97 -0.3 #202
Three Pointers 45% #76 1.01 #181 -1.8 #266
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #71 +3.6 #71
Freethrows 18.0 #220 66% #10 12.0 #149
Second Chance 29.6% #135 0.98 #96 0.29 #107
Turnovers 17.9% #86
Total Defense +4.5 #63

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -5.2% #362 -1.5% #62
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.4% #68 -5.6% #79
Possession Length 17.0 #136 18.7 #341
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #233 0.12 #36
Improvement -1.4 #265 +1.4 #99

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 22.1% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.1% 21.7% 6.5%
Average Seed 9.7 9.5 9.9
.500 or above 34.3% 59.6% 29.0%
.500 or above in Conference 15.8% 34.9% 11.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.7% 2.9% 12.3%
First Four3.7% 7.3% 3.0%
First Round7.4% 18.0% 5.1%
Second Round2.6% 7.1% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kentucky (Away) - 17.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 54 - 13
Quad 23 - 36 - 16
Quad 32 - 19 - 17
Quad 46 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 272 SE Louisiana W 88 - 58 94% +12  1 - 0 +21 +18 A C+ A+ +4 B- A- B
 Fri, Nov 7 361 Louisiana Monroe W 86 - 65 99% +17  2 - 0 +2 -2 D+ C- D- +3 C B+ A-
 Tue, Nov 11 92 Memphis W 83 - 77 72% +5  3 - 0 +9 +18 A+ C+ A+ -9 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 299 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 60 96% +11  4 - 0 +11 +15 F B+ A+ -1 C- C B-
 Tue, Nov 18 171 Austin Peay W 72 - 65 88% +7  5 - 0 +3 +1 F A+ A+ +2 A+ C- B+
 Tue, Nov 25 23 Iowa L 69 - 74 23% -2  5 - 1 +11 +11 C A+ B +0 A+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 104 Utah L 74 - 75 66% -3  5 - 2 +4 +6 B+ A D- -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 40 Miami (FL) L 66 - 75 48% -8  5 - 3 +0 +1 F A- A+ -1 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 18 @St. John's L 58 - 63 14% -5  5 - 4 +15 -6 F C- F +21 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 244 Southern Miss W 71 - 67 89% +3  6 - 4 -1 +1 D+ D+ A+ -2 D C B+
 Wed, Dec 17 301 Alabama A&M W 80 - 66 93% +13  7 - 4 +6 +12 A+ C+ A+ -4 F C C
 Sun, Dec 21 26 North Carolina St. L 62 - 76 27% -15  7 - 5 +1 -4 C- F C +5 C C A+
 Mon, Dec 29 347 Alcorn St. W 79 - 43 98% +14  8 - 5 +21 +3 C+ D- D +20 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 57 @Oklahoma L 70 - 86 35% -5  8 - 6 0 - 1 -3 +4 D C- A+ -8 F C+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 20 Arkansas L 87 - 94 30% -7  8 - 7 0 - 2 +7 +16 A+ F A -8 C- B- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 50 Missouri W 76 - 69 54% -1  9 - 7 1 - 2 +15 +9 C C+ A+ +6 C A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 24 @Georgia W 97 - 95 OT 17% +0  10 - 7 2 - 2 +21 +25 A+ A+ A+ -4 C A- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 76 @Mississippi St. W 68 - 67 43% -2  11 - 7 3 - 2 +12 +1 C D- A+ +10 A+ B D-
 Tue, Jan 20 27 Auburn L 66 - 78 39% -5  11 - 8 3 - 3 -0 +1 F C- A+ -2 A+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 24 25 @Kentucky L 68 - 78 17%
 Sat, Jan 31 21 Vanderbilt L 74 - 79 31%
 Tue, Feb 3 22 @Tennessee L 65 - 76 16%
 Sat, Feb 7 38 @Texas L 72 - 79 25%
 Wed, Feb 11 17 Alabama L 80 - 86 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 76 Mississippi St. W 74 - 70 65%
 Wed, Feb 18 34 @Texas A&M L 73 - 81 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 10 Florida L 70 - 79 22%
 Wed, Feb 25 43 LSU L 73 - 74 50%
 Sat, Feb 28 27 @Auburn L 71 - 80 20%
 Wed, Mar 4 21 @Vanderbilt L 71 - 82 15%
 Sat, Mar 7 69 South Carolina W 72 - 68 64%
Totals 15 - 16 7 - 11 +9 +4 C C A+ +4 B B- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 1.2 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 3.6 0.3 5.4 8th
9th 0.6 4.9 2.3 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.1 3.8 6.0 0.6 10.6 10th
11th 0.0 1.8 8.7 3.1 0.1 13.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 7.3 7.0 0.6 15.5 12th
13th 0.1 3.7 8.9 2.0 0.0 14.7 13th
14th 0.0 1.4 6.6 3.5 0.2 11.7 14th
15th 0.4 3.3 3.6 0.4 7.7 15th
16th 1.1 2.1 0.7 0.0 3.9 16th
Total 1.5 7.0 15.2 22.0 22.3 16.2 9.5 4.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 36.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 97.8% 1.1% 96.8% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.8%
11-7 1.5% 91.8% 1.3% 90.5% 8.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 91.7%
10-8 4.2% 70.0% 1.1% 68.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.5 1.3 69.7%
9-9 9.5% 36.1% 0.6% 35.6% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 0.1 6.1 35.8%
8-10 16.2% 5.6% 0.4% 5.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 15.3 5.3%
7-11 22.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 11.0 0.1 22.3 0.3%
6-12 22.0% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.9
5-13 15.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 15.2
4-14 7.0% 7.0
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.4% 0.3% 9.1% 9.7 90.6 9.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%