Mississippi
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.4 65
Expected Predictive Rating +7.4 78
Pace 64.8 283
Improvement -1.2 243

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #83 C+ C+ A- C F
Defense B- #59 B+ C C+ C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% 363 67% 27 -4.4 327
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 7 40% 99 +6.0 6
Three Pointers 39% 223 35% 134 -0.4 194
1st FG Attempt 1.04 136 +1.1 136
Second Chance 30.9% 167 1.09 91 0.34 120
Turnovers 13.0% 11
Freethrows 0.30 198 75% 98 0.23 154
Total Offense +3.8 83

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 341 49% 16 +7.1 11
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 87 36% 123 -0.7 246
Three Pointers 46% 52 32% 88 -1.0 235
1st FG Attempt 0.91 39 +5.4 39
Second Chance 29.6% 144 1.05 232 0.31 188
Turnovers 18.0% 111
Freethrows 0.32 234 69% 46 0.22 198
Total Defense +4.7 59

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -2.6 362 -0.9 45
Shot Type Accuracy +3.8 64 -4.5 39
Possession Length 17.0 135 18.7 345
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 215 0.12 32
Improvement -1.9 #293 +0.7 #139

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 10.7 10.5 12.5
.500 or above 7% 10% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 1% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 9% 3% 19%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Home) - 67.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b0 - 52 - 14
Quad 23 - 34 - 17
Quad 34 - 28 - 18
Quad 46 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 270 SE Louisiana W 88 - 58 94% +12  67% 1 - 0 A +21 A+ +16 A- C+ A B+ +6 B- A- B-
 Fri, Nov 7 356 Louisiana Monroe W 86 - 65 98% +17  97% 2 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -3 C- C- D+ B +5 C B B
 Tue, Nov 11 86 Memphis W 83 - 77 69% +5  81% 3 - 0 B +9 A+ +16 A+ B- A+ D -7 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 322 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 60 97% +11  97% 4 - 0 B +9 A- +11 D- C+ A+ C+ +1 C- C B-
 Tue, Nov 18 152 Austin Peay W 72 - 65 85% +7  97% 5 - 0 C+ +4 C- -2 F A+ B+ B+ +6 A D+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 25 Iowa L 69 - 74 24% -2  8% 5 - 1 B +11 B +6 C A+ B B +5 A+ F F+
 Wed, Nov 26 110 Utah L 74 - 75 67% -3  27% 5 - 2 C+ +3 B- +4 B A- D+ C -1 F+ A+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 41 Miami (FL) L 66 - 75 44% -8  10% 5 - 3 C +1 C- -2 F A- B+ B- +3 C- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 20 @St. John's L 58 - 63 13% -7  3% 5 - 4 A- +16 F+ -8 F+ C F A+ +24 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 241 Southern Miss W 71 - 67 88% +3  74% 6 - 4 C -1 C- -2 D+ D+ A C+ +1 D C B
 Wed, Dec 17 305 Alabama A&M W 80 - 66 93% +13  98% 7 - 4 B- +6 B+ +8 A+ D- A- C- -2 D- D+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 27 North Carolina St. L 62 - 76 25% -15  3% 7 - 5 C +1 D- -7 C F C- A- +9 C+ D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 351 Alcorn St. W 79 - 43 98% +14  80% 8 - 5 A +20 C- -2 C+ D- D+ A+ +23 A+ B D-
 Sat, Jan 3 54 @Oklahoma L 70 - 86 33% -5  14% 8 - 6 0 - 1 C- -3 C +1 D+ D+ A+ D+ -4 D C D-
 Wed, Jan 7 19 Arkansas L 87 - 94 26% -7  1% 8 - 7 0 - 2 B +8 A +14 A+ F A D -5 C- C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 48 Missouri W 76 - 69 51% -1  52% 9 - 7 1 - 2 A- +15 B +6 C- B- A+ A- +9 C- A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 14 36 @Georgia W 97 - 95 OT 20% +0  30% 10 - 7 2 - 2 A +19 A+ +21 A+ A+ A+ C- -2 C+ B D
 Sat, Jan 17 79 @Mississippi St. W 68 - 67 44% -2  33% 11 - 7 3 - 2 B +11 C- -1 C D+ A+ A +12 A+ C+ F+
 Tue, Jan 20 28 Auburn L 66 - 78 36% -5  4% 11 - 8 3 - 3 C +0 D+ -3 F+ C A+ C+ +2 A+ D C
 Sat, Jan 24 24 @Kentucky L 63 - 72 16% -3  11% 11 - 9 3 - 4 B +10 C- -1 F+ B+ B A +10 A+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 14 @Vanderbilt L 68 - 71 11% -7  0% 11 - 10 3 - 5 A +19 B+ +8 B- C+ B+ A +10 A B- A-
 Tue, Feb 3 18 @Tennessee L 66 - 84 12% -7  3% 11 - 11 3 - 6 C+ +3 B+ +7 B+ A A D -6 B F F
 Sat, Feb 7 30 @Texas L 68 - 79 19% -6  16% 11 - 12 3 - 7 B- +7 B- +4 C- C+ A+ C+ +1 A- F C+
 Wed, Feb 11 17 Alabama L 74 - 93 26% -4  37% 11 - 13 3 - 8 C- -4 C- -2 B- C- A- C -1 A+ D- F+
 Sat, Feb 14 79 Mississippi St. W 73 - 69 67%
 Wed, Feb 18 31 @Texas A&M L 72 - 81 19%
 Sat, Feb 21 4 Florida L 67 - 79 13%
 Wed, Feb 25 57 LSU W 74 - 72 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 28 @Auburn L 70 - 80 18%
 Wed, Mar 4 14 @Vanderbilt L 69 - 82 11%
 Sat, Mar 7 90 South Carolina W 73 - 67 72%
Totals 14 - 17 6 - 12 +8 B- +4 C+ C+ A- B- +5 B+ C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- A- C+ C+ B 27% 34% 39% F C+ C B- C+ A- C B- C B- A- C+ B- B+ 31% 23% 46% B B+ C+ C- C C+ C- B C
1.14 67% 40% 35% +4 -3 1.04 31% 1.1 .34 13% .30 75% .23 1.02 49% 36% 32% -4 -1 0.91 30% 1.1 .31 18% .32 69% .21
Nov
3		 SE Louisiana A+ A A+ C+ A 29% 29% 42% D- A- A+ F C+ A A+ A A+ B+ D+ A+ B+ B 30% 12% 58% F+ B- C+ A+ A- B- F A F+
1.32 71% 57% 35% +10 -2 1.19 44% 0.8 .37 15% .53 83% .44 0.87 62% 0% 28% -8 +1 0.86 26% 0.6 .16 20% .47 60% .28
Nov
7		 Louisiana Monroe D+ C- F+ A+ C+ 26% 26% 47% F C- F+ A C- D+ D C- D+ B A D+ C C- 22% 28% 50% A C B B B B B- A+ A-
1.16 60% 33% 44% +7 -2 1.12 29% 1.4 .39 18% .21 69% .15 0.88 42% 40% 33% -3 -2 0.91 20% 0.9 .18 20% .29 59% .17
Nov
11		 Memphis A+ A+ B A+ A+ 23% 52% 25% F A+ F A+ B- A+ A+ F+ A+ D F+ F+ F+ F 31% 35% 35% A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ C+ D+
1.23 73% 40% 58% +14 -5 1.19 23% 1.4 .32 10% .54 64% .35 1.14 69% 44% 39% +8 -2 1.13 26% 0.7 .18 10% .33 70% .23
Nov
14		 Cal St. Bakersfield A- F+ A+ F D- 44% 25% 31% D+ D- A D- C+ A+ B+ B A- C+ C D A+ D+ 41% 39% 20% C+ C- C C- C B- F A+ F
1.31 48% 67% 20% -4 0 0.94 47% 0.9 .42 6% .43 76% .33 0.96 56% 41% 22% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 21% .51 64% .32
Nov
18		 Austin Peay C- B- F F F 29% 35% 37% F F B A+ A+ B+ A- B A- B+ A+ B B+ A+ 29% 21% 50% B A F A D+ B- A+ F A+
1.06 64% 29% 22% -8 -3 0.82 35% 1.3 .45 16% .37 71% .26 0.95 38% 33% 29% -11 -1 0.79 38% 0.9 .36 18% .12 86% .11
Nov
25		 Iowa B B+ C D+ C+ 29% 33% 38% F C D+ A+ A+ B A- A+ A+ B A+ C+ C A+ 37% 26% 37% A A+ C+ F F F+ F C+ F+
1.07 67% 36% 31% 0 -2 0.98 24% 1.8 .44 20% .39 85% .33 1.15 41% 42% 35% -4 -1 0.91 32% 1.6 .53 11% .42 75% .31
Nov
26		 Utah B- A+ B F A 30% 43% 26% F B A- B- A- D+ B+ A+ A C F A+ F F 35% 28% 37% A+ F+ D+ A+ A+ A F+ C- F+
1.13 86% 45% 25% +8 -4 1.11 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 82% .26 1.15 75% 23% 53% +12 -1 1.24 33% 0.4 .13 20% .38 75% .29
Dec
2		 Miami (FL) C- F F B D- 16% 40% 44% F F A- B- A- B+ D- A+ C- B- A- C F C- 44% 12% 44% C- C- F C- F A+ B B- B
0.98 33% 23% 38% -8 -4 0.78 32% 1.1 .36 16% .20 82% .16 1.12 53% 40% 47% +7 +2 1.19 50% 1.1 .53 28% .31 67% .21
Dec
6		 St. John's F+ C+ F F F 43% 28% 28% D+ F+ A- D- C F A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 13% 48% C+ A+ C- C C- A+ F B- F
0.81 55% 23% 15% -13 -1 0.74 36% 0.8 .28 28% .39 80% .31 0.88 31% 20% 21% -22 +1 0.60 39% 1.2 .47 28% .68 71% .48
Dec
13		 Southern Miss C- A B- F C- 35% 30% 35% F+ D+ F A+ D+ A A C A C+ A F B+ D 37% 30% 33% C- D B- D C B C- A+ B-
1.06 69% 43% 25% +1 -2 1.00 14% 1.8 .25 12% .44 69% .31 1.00 47% 64% 27% 0 -1 1.00 27% 1.1 .30 21% .38 65% .25
Dec
17		 Alabama A&M B+ A A- A+ A+ 36% 26% 38% D- A+ D- D D- A- A+ F A C- A A+ F F+ 31% 31% 38% B+ D- B- F D+ C D A C
1.24 73% 45% 50% +17 -1 1.33 26% 0.9 .23 12% .53 60% .32 1.03 43% 21% 53% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.3 .28 17% .37 65% .24
Dec
21		 North Carolina St. D- A+ C D- B- 19% 23% 57% F C D- F F C- B- C- C+ A- F A+ C+ C 29% 14% 57% B- C+ A- F D+ A+ A A+ A+
0.89 78% 36% 30% 0 -2 0.98 19% 0.6 .11 21% .33 67% .22 1.09 87% 14% 34% +6 0 1.14 23% 1.7 .40 23% .24 54% .13
Dec
29		 Alcorn St. C- A+ F B B- 32% 20% 48% F+ C+ B+ F D- D+ F A+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 40% 28% A+ A+ A C- B D- D+ D- D
1.18 81% 30% 38% +8 0 1.18 44% 0.8 .36 19% .15 88% .13 0.64 25% 20% 21% -23 -3 0.50 18% 0.9 .16 16% .27 73% .20
Jan
3		 Oklahoma C F+ F A C 22% 35% 43% F D+ D- B- D+ A+ B D B- D+ C+ F F+ D 40% 13% 47% D+ D A- F C D- C A- C+
1.04 45% 28% 41% -2 -3 0.92 24% 1.1 .27 10% .33 70% .23 1.28 57% 57% 40% +7 +1 1.17 28% 1.6 .44 10% .32 68% .22
Jan
7		 Arkansas A A+ A+ B A+ 21% 36% 43% F A+ D+ F F A A A+ A+ D F F+ F+ D- 20% 35% 45% A+ C- F A+ C+ B+ F C+ F
1.21 91% 53% 35% +13 -3 1.21 26% 0.8 .19 14% .34 81% .27 1.30 80% 47% 41% +12 -3 1.20 42% 1.0 .42 15% .49 73% .36
Jan
10		 Missouri B A F+ A- B- 17% 45% 38% F C- C A B- A+ B- B+ B A- F A- B- C- 37% 15% 48% C+ C- A+ A+ A+ B- F A+ B-
1.14 67% 29% 40% +1 -5 0.94 28% 1.1 .31 10% .32 79% .25 1.03 82% 29% 32% +6 +1 1.15 27% 0.9 .24 19% .45 50% .22
Jan
14		 Georgia A+ B- A- A+ A+ 23% 39% 38% F A+ B A+ A+ A+ B B B C- A+ A+ F C 36% 13% 51% C+ C+ F A+ B D F C- F
1.27 57% 46% 48% +11 -4 1.16 36% 1.3 .45 12% .28 74% .21 1.25 35% 29% 50% +3 +1 1.09 46% 0.8 .35 12% .51 76% .39
Jan
17		 Mississippi St. C- B- A+ F B 16% 59% 25% F C C F+ D+ A+ F A- F A C A+ A+ A+ 38% 17% 45% D A+ B- C C+ F+ F A D+
0.97 60% 54% 6% -1 -7 0.87 26% 0.8 .21 7% .15 80% .12 0.96 60% 22% 17% -14 0 0.75 30% 1.0 .30 11% .37 61% .23
Jan
20		 Auburn D+ F C+ C+ D+ 13% 42% 44% F F+ D- A+ C A+ D+ A- C- C+ D- A- A+ A+ 40% 23% 38% B+ A+ D+ D D C F F+ F
1.00 14% 41% 35% -4 -5 0.85 22% 1.4 .30 9% .25 80% .20 1.18 69% 33% 13% -8 0 0.85 42% 1.2 .48 14% .69 82% .56
Jan
24		 Kentucky C- F F C+ F+ 29% 37% 35% F+ F+ A C+ B+ B A F+ B A A B- A+ A+ 20% 30% 50% A+ A+ C+ F+ D+ A- F C F
0.94 40% 21% 33% -12 -3 0.73 35% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25 1.07 50% 33% 20% -13 -3 0.70 35% 1.4 .48 18% .69 74% .51
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Vanderbilt B+ A+ C- C- A- 21% 48% 31% F B- A- D- C+ B+ A+ B+ A+ A F C- A+ A 30% 11% 60% C- A D+ A B- A- F+ A D+
1.06 78% 35% 31% +1 -5 0.95 34% 0.8 .28 17% .47 80% .38 1.11 79% 40% 25% -2 +1 1.00 35% 1.0 .35 17% .40 71% .28
Feb
3		 Tennessee B+ C+ A C+ A 16% 30% 55% F B+ C- A+ A A A D B+ D A+ F C B 31% 21% 48% B+ B F+ F F F F B- F
1.02 57% 46% 33% +2 -3 1.00 23% 1.6 .37 14% .38 62% .23 1.30 38% 67% 35% +1 -1 1.02 52% 1.2 .64 12% .60 68% .41
Feb
7		 Texas B- C A+ F C+ 17% 38% 44% F C- C B- C+ A+ D+ B+ C- C+ A- F A+ B+ 34% 39% 27% A+ A- B+ F F C+ D+ F F
1.07 56% 50% 26% -1 -4 0.92 25% 1.0 .25 9% .30 76% .23 1.24 53% 53% 25% +1 -3 0.98 33% 2.2 .74 16% .43 87% .37
Feb
11		 Alabama C- A+ F+ B- B+ 27% 40% 33% F B- D B- C- A- F+ D- F+ C A+ A+ C+ A+ 25% 5% 70% C+ A+ A F D- F+ D- F F
1.00 69% 29% 35% 0 -3 0.95 21% 1.0 .21 11% .20 62% .12 1.26 43% 0% 33% -6 +1 0.91 27% 1.8 .49 8% .38 92% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.1 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 1.6 5.1 1.7 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.3 10.6 23.5 8.6 0.6 43.5 12th
13th 2.9 14.5 5.7 0.2 23.2 13th
14th 0.2 7.4 5.5 0.4 13.5 14th
15th 1.1 3.9 0.5 0.0 5.5 15th
16th 1.6 0.6 2.2 16th
Total 2.9 15.0 31.1 31.1 14.9 4.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.6% 22.0% 1.7% 20.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 20.7%
8-10 4.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.9%
7-11 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 14.8 0.1%
6-12 31.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 31.1
5-13 31.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 31.1
4-14 15.0% 15.0
3-15 2.9% 2.9
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 10.7 99.7 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.9%