Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#248
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#236
Pace73.3#58
Improvement+3.0#60

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#302
First Shot-4.3#299
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#218
Layup/Dunks-1.5#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#271
Freethrows-1.8#290
Improvement-1.1#254

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#178
First Shot+0.2#174
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#231
Layups/Dunks-1.9#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#138
Freethrows-0.6#236
Improvement+4.1#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 2.0% 6.8% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 33.7% 65.4% 26.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Away) - 19.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 32 - 72 - 14
Quad 410 - 512 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 312   Bowling Green W 77-68 72%     1 - 0 -2.1 -6.2 +3.6
  Nov 07, 2024 96   @ UAB L 84-98 12%     1 - 1 -6.6 +0.6 -5.5
  Nov 20, 2024 114   @ South Dakota St. L 76-101 16%     1 - 2 -19.5 -7.8 -7.4
  Nov 24, 2024 189   @ Montana St. L 59-79 27%     1 - 3 -18.9 -15.6 -2.5
  Nov 25, 2024 242   Abilene Christian L 74-82 49%     1 - 4 -12.8 +6.3 -19.6
  Nov 30, 2024 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 66-65 34%     2 - 4 +0.1 -1.2 +1.4
  Dec 05, 2024 308   Alabama St. W 81-64 71%     3 - 4 +6.0 -1.7 +6.8
  Dec 10, 2024 141   @ Tulane L 58-86 20%     3 - 5 -24.3 -12.4 -11.8
  Dec 14, 2024 26   Mississippi L 46-77 4%     3 - 6 -16.4 -14.4 -5.0
  Dec 17, 2024 218   Lamar L 65-69 52%     3 - 7 -9.7 -7.6 -2.2
  Dec 21, 2024 182   Marshall W 68-66 44%     4 - 7 1 - 0 -1.6 +7.2 -8.4
  Jan 02, 2025 137   @ James Madison L 72-83 20%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -7.1 +3.1 -10.7
  Jan 04, 2025 275   @ Old Dominion L 71-74 45%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -6.8 -1.6 -5.3
  Jan 09, 2025 328   Louisiana Monroe W 84-67 77%     5 - 9 2 - 2 +4.0 -3.4 +5.5
  Jan 11, 2025 184   Texas St. W 92-88 OT 45%     6 - 9 3 - 2 +0.2 -0.8 +0.4
  Jan 15, 2025 156   @ South Alabama L 62-75 22%     6 - 10 3 - 3 -10.0 -7.6 -2.2
  Jan 18, 2025 184   @ Texas St. L 82-85 OT 27%     6 - 11 3 - 4 -1.8 -1.6 +0.2
  Jan 25, 2025 301   @ Louisiana W 67-59 51%     7 - 11 4 - 4 +2.7 -4.0 +7.1
  Jan 27, 2025 111   @ Troy L 61-70 15%     7 - 12 4 - 5 -3.2 -11.2 +8.5
  Jan 29, 2025 93   Arkansas St. L 68-81 21%     7 - 13 4 - 6 -9.6 -4.4 -4.8
  Feb 01, 2025 254   Georgia Southern W 72-68 60%     8 - 13 5 - 6 -3.8 -8.3 +4.2
  Feb 05, 2025 145   @ Appalachian St. L 62-71 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 255   @ Ball St. L 73-75 40%    
  Feb 12, 2025 93   @ Arkansas St. L 67-81 8%    
  Feb 15, 2025 328   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 20, 2025 309   Coastal Carolina W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 301   Louisiana W 73-68 70%    
  Feb 26, 2025 156   South Alabama L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 28, 2025 111   Troy L 67-73 31%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.3 3rd
4th 0.4 0.7 1.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 0.5 2.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 4.5 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 3.1 10.3 2.1 0.0 15.6 7th
8th 1.7 12.8 8.2 0.2 22.9 8th
9th 0.2 8.4 13.1 1.1 22.8 9th
10th 2.6 9.6 2.7 0.0 14.9 10th
11th 0.3 4.5 3.5 0.1 8.3 11th
12th 1.2 2.2 0.2 3.6 12th
13th 0.2 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.7 9.5 23.4 31.8 22.6 9.4 1.6 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 33.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 1.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
10-8 9.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 9.3
9-9 22.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 22.5
8-10 31.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 31.6
7-11 23.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 23.3
6-12 9.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.5
5-13 1.7% 1.7
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%