Buffalo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.8#342
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#305
Pace75.4#37
Improvement-2.4#294

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#338
First Shot-2.8#257
After Offensive Rebound-3.9#349
Layup/Dunks+3.4#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#349
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#212
Freethrows-1.5#275
Improvement-2.5#310

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#320
First Shot-5.3#332
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#167
Layups/Dunks-0.5#185
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#356
Freethrows+1.4#88
Improvement+0.0#186
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 1.1% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.4% 24.1% 48.1%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 11.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 30 - 60 - 12
Quad 47 - 98 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 275   @ Old Dominion W 83-82 22%     1 - 0 -2.8 +4.8 -7.7
  Nov 11, 2024 83   @ Notre Dame L 77-86 3%     1 - 1 +0.8 -0.5 +2.2
  Nov 14, 2024 144   Bryant L 64-87 16%     1 - 2 -24.3 -16.6 -5.4
  Nov 19, 2024 240   @ Vermont L 67-78 18%     1 - 3 -13.1 +2.2 -16.2
  Nov 22, 2024 329   Morgan St. W 82-73 55%     2 - 3 -4.0 +1.7 -5.6
  Nov 25, 2024 333   N.C. A&T W 82-81 56%     3 - 3 -12.4 -7.9 -4.6
  Dec 01, 2024 50   @ Penn St. L 64-87 2%     3 - 4 -10.3 -3.3 -7.1
  Dec 07, 2024 95   @ St. Bonaventure L 55-65 4%     3 - 5 -2.2 -9.0 +5.8
  Dec 19, 2024 37   @ Georgia L 49-100 2%     3 - 6 -36.5 -13.9 -23.1
  Dec 29, 2024 125   @ Temple L 71-91 7%     3 - 7 -15.4 -9.6 -3.4
  Jan 04, 2025 173   @ Miami (OH) L 79-93 10%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -11.9 +5.2 -16.9
  Jan 07, 2025 168   Ohio L 79-88 19%     3 - 9 0 - 2 -11.5 -4.6 -5.9
  Jan 10, 2025 148   Kent St. L 49-68 17%     3 - 10 0 - 3 -20.5 -19.3 -1.9
  Jan 14, 2025 312   @ Bowling Green L 61-79 29%     3 - 11 0 - 4 -24.1 -15.0 -9.3
  Jan 18, 2025 306   @ Western Michigan W 85-76 28%     4 - 11 1 - 4 +3.1 -2.1 +4.0
  Jan 21, 2025 100   Akron L 58-90 10%     4 - 12 1 - 5 -29.8 -19.4 -7.4
  Jan 25, 2025 300   @ Eastern Michigan L 77-90 27%     4 - 13 1 - 6 -18.3 -0.7 -17.4
  Jan 28, 2025 225   Central Michigan W 75-69 29%     5 - 13 2 - 6 +0.0 -2.8 +2.5
  Feb 01, 2025 255   Ball St. L 76-89 36%     5 - 14 2 - 7 -21.0 -4.3 -16.4
  Feb 04, 2025 201   @ Toledo L 76-88 11%    
  Feb 08, 2025 278   Georgia St. L 77-80 41%    
  Feb 11, 2025 338   @ Northern Illinois L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 15, 2025 312   Bowling Green L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 18, 2025 306   Western Michigan L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 255   @ Ball St. L 72-81 19%    
  Feb 25, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan L 67-78 15%    
  Mar 01, 2025 201   Toledo L 78-85 27%    
  Mar 04, 2025 173   Miami (OH) L 73-82 22%    
  Mar 07, 2025 100   @ Akron L 71-90 4%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 2.2 0.2 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 2.5 5.2 1.1 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 3.8 11.0 4.3 0.3 19.3 10th
11th 0.6 8.2 20.2 8.9 0.7 38.5 11th
12th 6.8 12.8 5.7 0.3 25.6 12th
Total 7.4 21.0 29.7 22.8 12.6 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 1.3% 1.3
7-11 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.0
6-12 12.6% 12.6
5-13 22.8% 22.8
4-14 29.7% 29.7
3-15 21.0% 21.0
2-16 7.4% 7.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.0%