Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#215
Expected Predictive Rating+11.1#58
Pace67.5#233
Improvement-2.8#336

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#155
First Shot+1.5#135
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#255
Layup/Dunks-6.9#350
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#123
Freethrows+7.2#1
Improvement-2.5#354

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#289
First Shot-5.7#343
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#59
Layups/Dunks-3.5#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#289
Freethrows-0.2#194
Improvement-0.2#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.6% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 82.7% 92.6% 77.5%
.500 or above in Conference 44.7% 52.3% 40.7%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.6% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 3.9% 6.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.8% 2.6% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Home) - 34.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 412 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 219 Southern Miss W 85-79 63%     1 - 0 -0.6 +12.7 -12.9
  Fri, Nov 7 264 Green Bay W 83-76 70%     2 - 0 -1.8 +11.7 -12.9
  Tue, Nov 11 121 @DePaul W 66-53 19%     3 - 0 +19.0 -1.0 +20.4
  Tue, Nov 18 189 Vermont W 94-90 57%     4 - 0 -1.1 +11.3 -12.6
  Mon, Nov 24 337 VMI W 78-70 77%     5 - 0 -3.0 +3.3 -5.9
  Wed, Nov 26 304 Bucknell W 73-71 67%     6 - 0 -5.9 +7.4 -13.0
  Sat, Nov 29 353 @Canisius W 71-53 74%     7 - 0 +8.0 +0.9 +8.7
  Sat, Dec 6 111 St. Bonaventure L 69-73 34%    
  Tue, Dec 9 272 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 74-75 49%    
  Sun, Dec 14 245 @East Carolina L 73-75 44%    
  Sat, Dec 20 267 @Western Michigan L 74-75 49%    
  Tue, Dec 30 330 @Northern Illinois W 78-75 62%    
  Sat, Jan 3 316 Ball St. W 75-67 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 194 @Ohio L 76-80 36%    
  Tue, Jan 13 122 Kent St. L 80-83 38%    
  Sat, Jan 17 127 @Miami (OH) L 73-82 22%    
  Tue, Jan 20 54 Akron L 78-88 18%    
  Sat, Jan 24 175 Massachusetts W 77-76 54%    
  Tue, Jan 27 119 @Bowling Green L 69-78 19%    
  Sat, Jan 31 194 Ohio W 79-77 57%    
  Tue, Feb 3 127 Miami (OH) L 76-79 40%    
  Wed, Feb 11 316 @Ball St. W 72-70 57%    
  Tue, Feb 17 330 Northern Illinois W 81-72 80%    
  Sat, Feb 21 175 @Massachusetts L 74-79 32%    
  Tue, Feb 24 54 @Akron L 75-91 8%    
  Sat, Feb 28 309 Central Michigan W 78-70 76%    
  Tue, Mar 3 203 Eastern Michigan W 73-71 58%    
  Fri, Mar 6 173 @Toledo L 75-80 33%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.9 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.1 1.6 0.2 9.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 4.9 2.0 0.2 9.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 5.9 3.0 0.3 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.9 4.1 0.5 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.9 5.3 1.1 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.5 3.4 5.3 1.4 0.1 10.6 9th
10th 0.3 2.2 4.4 1.9 0.1 8.9 10th
11th 0.2 1.7 3.5 1.7 0.2 7.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.9 7.6 10.5 13.6 15.3 14.0 11.5 8.5 5.6 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 88.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 46.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 28.2% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 9.5% 9.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 14.0% 14.0% 12.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.6% 10.6% 10.6% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
13-5 2.9% 7.6% 7.6% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
12-6 5.6% 4.8% 4.8% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.3
11-7 8.5% 4.3% 4.3% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.1
10-8 11.5% 2.9% 2.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.2
9-9 14.0% 1.5% 1.5% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.8
8-10 15.3% 1.0% 1.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.2
7-11 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6
6-12 10.5% 10.5
5-13 7.6% 7.6
4-14 4.9% 4.9
3-15 2.2% 2.2
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 98.2 0.0%