Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.6 #201
Expected Predictive Rating +0.3 #158
Pace 67.4 #226
Improvement -2.8 #306

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #123 C+ C C+ A- B-
Defense #301 D- C C C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #158 1.12 #219 -0.4 #192
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #282 0.82 #90 -1.3 #241
Three Pointers 45% #104 1.09 #76 +3.8 #65
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #120 +2.1 #120
Freethrows 20.4 #39 74% #129 15.2 #36
Second Chance 27.6% #265 1.12 #85 0.31 #195
Turnovers 15.6% #127
Total Offense +1.7 #123

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #182 1.26 #301 -2.1 #251
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #333 0.79 #231 +1.9 #44
Three Pointers 46% #45 1.09 #275 -4.5 #333
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #315 -4.6 #315
Freethrows 16.2 #132 77% #346 12.6 #177
Second Chance 32.6% #264 1.01 #133 0.33 #211
Turnovers 16.9% #150
Total Defense -4.3 #301

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #102 1.5% #310
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.8% #134 7.3% #312
Possession Length 17.6 #206 17.6 #241
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #130 0.21 #301
Improvement -2.7 #321 -0.2 #199

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.0% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.1
.500 or above 88.7% 95.3% 80.2%
.500 or above in Conference 44.8% 58.4% 27.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.6% 2.0% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Home) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 32 - 64 - 10
Quad 413 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 244 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 69% -3  1 - 0 -2 +16 A- B- A+ -17 F D- A-
 Fri, Nov 7 255 Green Bay W 83 - 76 70% +3  2 - 0 -1 +10 B+ C+ B+ -11 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 99 @DePaul W 66 - 53 16% +12  3 - 0 +21 +2 F B B+ +20 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 204 Vermont W 94 - 90 62% +0  4 - 0 -2 +13 A+ F C -15 F D+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 349 VMI W 78 - 70 82% +1  5 - 0 -4 +2 C- D- C- -6 B+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 319 Bucknell W 73 - 71 76% +10  6 - 0 -8 +9 C F A -16 F F B-
 Sat, Nov 29 344 @Canisius W 71 - 53 73% +8  7 - 0 +9 +2 D+ C C- +8 A C- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 136 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 46% -7  7 - 1 -9 -3 B+ B- F -7 F D A+
 Tue, Dec 9 275 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 53% -1  8 - 1 +1 +12 A+ D- D- -11 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 14 267 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 51% +8  8 - 2 -6 -0 D- C D- -6 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 20 260 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 50% +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +15 +18 B B+ A+ -3 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 318 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 65% +7  10 - 2 2 - 0 +7 +9 B B F -1 C A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 296 Ball St. W 85 - 72 78% +14  11 - 2 3 - 0 +2 +14 A+ A+ D -10 D+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 196 @Ohio L 80 - 91 38% -4  11 - 3 3 - 1 -10 +3 D+ C C -13 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 148 Kent St. L 81 - 87 49% -7  11 - 4 3 - 2 -8 +4 C D- A+ -12 F C- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 89 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 13% +0  11 - 5 3 - 3 +6 +15 A+ D- C- -8 F B D+
 Tue, Jan 20 64 Akron L 63 - 82 22% -17  11 - 6 3 - 4 -13 -11 F F C+ -2 D+ A+ A
 Fri, Jan 23 176 Massachusetts W 80 - 78 56%
 Tue, Jan 27 129 @Bowling Green L 72 - 80 24%
 Sat, Jan 31 196 Ohio W 81 - 78 59%
 Tue, Feb 3 89 Miami (OH) L 78 - 84 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 191 @South Alabama L 70 - 74 37%
 Wed, Feb 11 296 @Ball St. W 73 - 71 57%
 Tue, Feb 17 318 Northern Illinois W 80 - 70 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 176 @Massachusetts L 77 - 81 34%
 Tue, Feb 24 64 @Akron L 77 - 91 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 322 Central Michigan W 80 - 70 83%
 Tue, Mar 3 198 Eastern Michigan W 75 - 72 61%
 Fri, Mar 6 166 @Toledo L 77 - 82 32%
Totals 17 - 12 8 - 10 -3 +2 C+ C C+ -4 D- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.3 3.3 3.6 0.8 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.3 4.9 7.4 1.8 0.1 14.4 5th
6th 0.1 4.1 9.6 3.1 0.2 0.0 17.1 6th
7th 0.0 2.0 10.0 5.1 0.3 17.4 7th
8th 0.7 7.3 7.2 0.7 16.0 8th
9th 0.3 3.7 7.1 1.3 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.4 1.6 0.0 7.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.0 0.1 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.6 9.9 18.1 22.8 20.8 14.5 7.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 12.5% 0.0    0.0
13-5 1.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.4% 7.5% 7.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 2.1% 6.5% 6.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
11-7 7.0% 4.1% 4.1% 13.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.7
10-8 14.5% 3.3% 3.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 14.0
9-9 20.8% 1.7% 1.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 20.4
8-10 22.8% 1.1% 1.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 22.6
7-11 18.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 18.0
6-12 9.9% 9.9
5-13 3.6% 3.6
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 13.9 98.4 0.0%