Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#196
Expected Predictive Rating+4.3#106
Pace66.6#259
Improvement-2.7#329

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#123
First Shot+2.7#94
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#252
Layup/Dunks-3.8#307
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#101
Freethrows+4.8#7
Improvement-1.8#312

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#311
First Shot-5.1#336
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#96
Layups/Dunks-1.0#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#330
Freethrows+0.0#178
Improvement-0.9#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.7% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 93.4% 96.9% 86.4%
.500 or above in Conference 59.4% 69.2% 39.9%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.4% 3.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.2% 2.7% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 55 - 9
Quad 413 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 207 Southern Miss W 85-79 64%     1 - 0 +0.0 +14.5 -14.2
  Fri, Nov 7 283 Green Bay W 83-76 76%     2 - 0 -2.6 +10.4 -12.3
  Tue, Nov 11 115 @DePaul W 66-53 21%     3 - 0 +19.3 +0.7 +19.0
  Tue, Nov 18 178 Vermont W 94-90 58%     4 - 0 -0.3 +12.3 -12.8
  Mon, Nov 24 332 VMI W 78-70 78%     5 - 0 -2.3 +1.9 -3.9
  Wed, Nov 26 308 Bucknell W 73-71 72%     6 - 0 -6.4 +8.7 -14.8
  Sat, Nov 29 347 @Canisius W 71-53 74%     7 - 0 +8.8 +2.6 +7.8
  Sat, Dec 6 116 St. Bonaventure L 69-77 40%     7 - 1 -7.7 -0.8 -7.3
  Tue, Dec 9 292 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83-79 57%     8 - 1 -0.1 +12.1 -11.9
  Sun, Dec 14 271 @East Carolina L 70-73 52%     8 - 2 -5.9 -0.1 -5.9
  Sat, Dec 20 280 @Western Michigan W 88-71 54%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +13.7 +18.2 -3.4
  Tue, Dec 30 328 @Northern Illinois W 79-74 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 306 Ball St. W 76-67 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 189 @Ohio L 76-79 37%    
  Tue, Jan 13 124 Kent St. L 80-82 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 106 @Miami (OH) L 75-85 18%    
  Tue, Jan 20 59 Akron L 80-88 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 164 Massachusetts W 77-76 54%    
  Tue, Jan 27 117 @Bowling Green L 69-78 22%    
  Sat, Jan 31 189 Ohio W 79-76 59%    
  Tue, Feb 3 106 Miami (OH) L 78-82 37%    
  Wed, Feb 11 306 @Ball St. W 73-70 60%    
  Tue, Feb 17 328 Northern Illinois W 82-71 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 164 @Massachusetts L 74-79 33%    
  Tue, Feb 24 59 @Akron L 77-91 10%    
  Sat, Feb 28 323 Central Michigan W 79-69 83%    
  Tue, Mar 3 216 Eastern Michigan W 74-70 65%    
  Fri, Mar 6 170 @Toledo L 77-82 33%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 5.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 6.5 3.9 0.4 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 6.9 4.8 0.8 0.0 14.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 6.1 5.6 0.9 0.0 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.7 5.3 1.3 0.1 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.3 1.3 0.1 8.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 2.9 1.1 0.1 5.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.1 7.6 11.5 15.0 16.4 15.0 12.2 8.0 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 91.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 61.2% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 26.3% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 18.0% 18.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 12.1% 12.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.2% 11.2% 11.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.9
13-5 4.6% 6.6% 6.6% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.3
12-6 8.0% 3.7% 3.7% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.7
11-7 12.2% 3.4% 3.4% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.8
10-8 15.0% 2.5% 2.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 14.7
9-9 16.4% 1.7% 1.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 16.2
8-10 15.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.8
7-11 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
6-12 7.6% 7.6
5-13 4.1% 4.1
4-14 1.7% 1.7
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 97.8 0.0%