Buffalo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.9#330
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#250
Pace71.5#109
Improvement+0.2#170

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#311
First Shot-2.2#243
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#321
Layup/Dunks+3.3#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#207
Freethrows-1.2#253
Improvement-1.0#264

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#325
First Shot-5.8#347
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#115
Layups/Dunks-0.1#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#190
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#357
Freethrows+1.2#98
Improvement+1.1#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.9 15.8
.500 or above 2.7% 8.5% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 12.9% 21.2% 12.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 30.0% 19.6% 30.8%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Away) - 7.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 48 - 89 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 315   @ Old Dominion W 83-82 34%     1 - 0 -4.7 +3.5 -8.2
  Nov 11, 2024 83   @ Notre Dame L 77-86 4%     1 - 1 +0.8 +1.2 +0.4
  Nov 14, 2024 178   Bryant L 64-87 28%     1 - 2 -26.9 -17.8 -6.8
  Nov 19, 2024 184   @ Vermont L 67-78 14%     1 - 3 -9.2 +3.6 -13.6
  Nov 22, 2024 348   Morgan St. W 82-73 69%     2 - 3 -6.2 +1.2 -7.2
  Nov 25, 2024 321   N.C. A&T W 82-81 58%     3 - 3 -11.0 -7.0 -4.2
  Dec 01, 2024 30   @ Penn St. L 64-87 2%     3 - 4 -7.4 -1.0 -6.4
  Dec 07, 2024 89   @ St. Bonaventure L 55-65 5%     3 - 5 -0.6 -6.1 +4.5
  Dec 19, 2024 32   @ Georgia L 49-100 2%     3 - 6 -35.5 -14.6 -21.4
  Dec 29, 2024 119   @ Temple L 65-81 7%    
  Jan 04, 2025 209   @ Miami (OH) L 68-79 16%    
  Jan 07, 2025 149   Ohio L 74-81 25%    
  Jan 10, 2025 113   Kent St. L 63-73 17%    
  Jan 14, 2025 267   @ Bowling Green L 73-80 25%    
  Jan 18, 2025 296   @ Western Michigan L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 21, 2025 163   Akron L 75-82 27%    
  Jan 25, 2025 317   @ Eastern Michigan L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 28, 2025 225   Central Michigan L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 288   Ball St. L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 04, 2025 211   @ Toledo L 75-85 17%    
  Feb 11, 2025 346   @ Northern Illinois L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 267   Bowling Green L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 18, 2025 296   Western Michigan W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 288   @ Ball St. L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 25, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan L 68-78 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 211   Toledo L 78-82 34%    
  Mar 04, 2025 209   Miami (OH) L 71-76 34%    
  Mar 07, 2025 163   @ Akron L 72-85 13%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 2.5 0.7 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.8 2.6 0.2 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.7 4.1 0.5 0.0 13.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.7 5.1 1.0 0.0 16.7 10th
11th 0.2 1.6 5.0 7.8 5.2 1.1 0.1 20.9 11th
12th 0.9 3.2 5.7 5.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 19.4 12th
Total 0.9 3.4 7.3 11.4 14.5 15.1 14.0 11.8 8.8 5.9 3.5 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 71.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 54.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 19.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 13.9% 13.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 7.9% 7.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 1.0% 3.7% 3.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-7 1.9% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.8
10-8 3.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.4
9-9 5.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.9
8-10 8.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.7
7-11 11.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.8
6-12 14.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-13 15.1% 15.1
4-14 14.5% 14.5
3-15 11.4% 11.4
2-16 7.3% 7.3
1-17 3.4% 3.4
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%