Akron
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.8 72
Expected Predictive Rating +6.6 84
Pace 75.5 29
Improvement -4.6 341

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #55 B+ A- C+ D B-
Defense C+ #123 C C- B- C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 172 63% 68 +2.2 104
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 293 43% 52 -1.4 254
Three Pointers 46% 75 36% 73 +4.4 41
1st FG Attempt 1.12 46 +5.3 46
Second Chance 33.3% 98 1.31 2 0.43 19
Turnovers 16.0% 125
Freethrows 0.25 331 76% 67 0.19 298
Total Offense +6.1 55

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 197 57% 143 +0.7 146
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 239 35% 72 +1.4 87
Three Pointers 43% 106 34% 203 -1.4 252
1st FG Attempt 1.01 161 +0.6 162
Second Chance 34.0% 314 0.98 112 0.33 240
Turnovers 18.8% 75
Freethrows 0.29 142 73% 224 0.21 145
Total Defense +1.7 123

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.7 91 +0.3 216
Shot Type Accuracy +4.4 56 -0.8 153
Possession Length 15.6 36 17.6 235
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 67 0.16 123
Improvement -7.1 #363 +2.4 #60

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42% 42% 39%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 50% 54% 27%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round42% 42% 39%
Second Round7% 7% 6%
Sweet Sixteen2% 2% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Home) - 87.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 38 - 18 - 6
Quad 417 - 125 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 222 James Madison W 85 - 71 90% +0  49% 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +3 F+ A+ B- B +5 C+ B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 221 Princeton W 104 - 69 90% +20  93% 2 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +17 A+ A A A- +9 C A+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 9 @Purdue L 79 - 97 8% -12  9% 2 - 1 B- +6 A- +10 C- A+ A D+ -4 B- F A
 Fri, Nov 21 247 Iona W 96 - 75 87% +18  98% 3 - 1 A- +16 A- +10 A A B- B- +4 B F A
 Sun, Nov 23 273 Evansville W 97 - 59 90% +13  87% 4 - 1 A+ +32 A+ +20 A A+ C A +12 B+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 81 Yale L 94 - 97 54% -6  2% 4 - 2 C+ +4 A+ +23 A+ A+ D F -19 F D+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 268 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 105 - 81 93% +13  91% 5 - 2 A- +15 A +14 A+ B- D- C -1 B F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 324 Bucknell W 97 - 77 96% +11  80% 6 - 2 B- +7 A+ +19 A B+ A+ F -11 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 174 @Tulane W 88 - 71 71% +8  76% 7 - 2 A +19 A +13 A A+ D B+ +6 A- C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 112 Murray St. L 100 - 115 66% -9  5% 7 - 3 D- -12 B+ +8 A- D- A+ F -17 F D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 231 Eastern Michigan W 93 - 72 91% +15  97% 8 - 3 1 - 0 B+ +14 A+ +15 B A+ A C -1 A+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 87 @Miami (OH) L 73 - 76 44% +1  58% 8 - 4 1 - 1 B- +6 C- -2 D- A+ D- A- +8 A+ F A
 Tue, Jan 6 296 Central Michigan W 82 - 69 95% +10  95% 9 - 4 2 - 1 C+ +2 C- -1 A+ A- F B- +3 D+ A A+
 Fri, Jan 9 158 @Bowling Green W 77 - 67 69% +11  97% 10 - 4 3 - 1 B+ +13 C+ +3 C- A- C- A- +10 C+ B+ A-
 Tue, Jan 13 310 Ball St. W 87 - 77 96% +11  95% 11 - 4 4 - 1 C- -2 B+ +9 B B A+ F+ -11 F D- D
 Sat, Jan 17 295 Western Michigan W 104 - 89 95% +2  56% 12 - 4 5 - 1 C+ +4 A+ +24 A+ A+ B- F -19 F F+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 202 @Buffalo W 82 - 63 76% +17  97% 13 - 4 6 - 1 A +19 B- +4 B C- D+ A+ +15 A+ B B
 Fri, Jan 23 199 @Ohio W 86 - 65 76% +15  99% 14 - 4 7 - 1 A +21 B +6 B- D+ C A+ +14 A+ C F+
 Tue, Jan 27 165 Toledo W 91 - 81 85% +0  53% 15 - 4 8 - 1 B- +7 A +12 C+ A+ B- D+ -5 F C- A
 Fri, Jan 30 147 Kent St. W 69 - 52 83% +11  94% 16 - 4 9 - 1 A- +15 D- -7 C+ D- D- A+ +22 A+ B+ B+
 Tue, Feb 3 231 @Eastern Michigan W 66 - 64 79% -0  52% 17 - 4 10 - 1 C +1 D- -7 F B D A- +9 D+ C- A
 Sat, Feb 7 135 @Troy L 69 - 79 62% -3  34% 17 - 5 D+ -5 C +2 C- D A+ D- -8 D+ C- F
 Fri, Feb 13 183 Massachusetts W 90 - 78 87%
 Tue, Feb 17 295 @Western Michigan W 89 - 76 88%
 Fri, Feb 20 310 @Ball St. W 81 - 67 90%
 Tue, Feb 24 202 Buffalo W 88 - 75 90%
 Sat, Feb 28 147 @Kent St. W 87 - 83 64%
 Tue, Mar 3 296 @Central Michigan W 87 - 74 88%
 Fri, Mar 6 314 Northern Illinois W 88 - 68 97%
Totals 23 - 6 16 - 2 +8 B +6 B+ A- C+ C+ +2 C C- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B B B- B 39% 15% 46% B- B+ B- A+ A- C+ D- B D C+ C+ B- C C+ 38% 18% 43% C- C D C+ C- B- C+ C- C+
1.17 63% 43% 36% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.3 .43 16% .25 76% .19 1.06 57% 35% 34% -1 0 1.01 34% 1.0 .33 19% .29 73% .18
Nov
3		 James Madison C+ F A+ F F 51% 6% 43% A F+ A- A A+ B- A A- A+ B B+ A+ F B- 42% 10% 48% F+ C+ D+ A+ B+ A+ B+ F D+
1.18 42% 67% 27% -11 +3 0.86 38% 1.3 .49 11% .45 79% .36 0.99 50% 0% 40% -3 +2 1.00 32% 0.8 .24 26% .25 92% .23
Nov
8		 Princeton A+ B+ F A+ A+ 40% 11% 49% B A+ C+ A+ A A C A B- A- A- C+ D C 36% 15% 49% D+ C C A+ A+ B C- A C+
1.35 68% 29% 42% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.5 .44 9% .30 81% .24 0.89 45% 38% 37% -2 +1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 19% .32 65% .21
Nov
16		 Purdue A- B F B C+ 15% 35% 51% F+ C- A A+ A+ A A- B A- D+ F+ A- C- B- 39% 24% 37% C- B- F D+ F A F D- F
1.09 63% 26% 36% -2 -4 0.91 32% 1.7 .53 14% .27 71% .19 1.34 75% 33% 37% +7 0 1.16 58% 1.3 .73 18% .39 78% .30
Nov
21		 Iona A- A+ C- A A 40% 25% 35% D+ A C A+ A B- A+ D+ A B- D+ B A B+ 37% 22% 41% B- B D+ F F A F B D-
1.24 74% 36% 40% +9 0 1.19 35% 1.4 .48 14% .38 68% .26 0.97 60% 33% 27% -4 0 0.93 28% 1.3 .35 22% .33 65% .22
Nov
23		 Evansville A+ A+ A C+ A 42% 8% 50% A+ A A- A+ A+ C A+ C+ A+ A C- D- A+ A- 30% 26% 44% C- B+ D F F A+ F A F
1.39 76% 50% 36% +10 +2 1.26 40% 2.1 .84 17% .47 74% .35 0.84 62% 45% 21% -6 -1 0.88 27% 1.6 .42 26% .44 65% .29
Nov
24		 Yale A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% B A+ B A+ A+ D F D F F F F F F 45% 22% 33% C+ F D- C+ D+ D- D F F
1.42 74% 56% 48% +18 +1 1.40 35% 1.9 .65 17% .16 67% .11 1.47 77% 64% 50% +22 0 1.47 39% 1.1 .44 12% .36 100% .36
Nov
29		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A A+ A+ A+ A+ 52% 7% 41% A- A+ D+ A+ B- D- D A+ C- C B A+ C+ A- 38% 11% 51% F B F D+ F B- C A B-
1.35 75% 75% 50% +21 +3 1.50 26% 1.5 .39 19% .29 83% .24 1.04 50% 0% 31% -9 +1 0.86 38% 1.2 .44 17% .26 59% .15
Dec
3		 Bucknell A+ A A A- A 40% 15% 45% B A D A+ B+ A+ B F C F D+ A- F+ F 29% 14% 58% C+ F F A+ C+ F A+ B+ A+
1.41 73% 50% 40% +12 +1 1.27 29% 1.6 .45 7% .36 65% .24 1.12 59% 25% 38% +2 0 1.07 34% 0.7 .25 13% .12 71% .08
Dec
6		 Tulane A C A+ A+ A 32% 12% 56% B- A A- A A+ D D+ A- C B+ C+ F A+ A- 25% 19% 56% B A- C- B+ C+ D- B- B B
1.24 56% 50% 43% +8 +1 1.20 42% 1.2 .52 20% .30 76% .23 1.00 57% 55% 22% -7 -1 0.86 22% 1.0 .22 11% .35 73% .25
Dec
13		 Murray St. B+ C- A+ A+ A 51% 25% 25% B- A- B- F D- A+ B B- B+ F D+ F F F 37% 17% 46% C F F B+ D- A+ D- A C-
1.21 55% 56% 44% +6 0 1.15 36% 0.7 .26 10% .34 76% .26 1.40 64% 60% 56% +21 0 1.44 44% 1.0 .44 22% .39 68% .26
Dec
19		 Eastern Michigan A+ A- A+ F C+ 65% 12% 23% A+ B A+ A+ A+ A F A+ D C A+ A- B+ A+ 55% 13% 32% F A+ F D+ F+ D- F A F
1.31 67% 57% 14% +1 +3 1.10 41% 1.3 .53 11% .22 86% .19 1.01 38% 29% 29% -14 +2 0.77 35% 1.0 .35 14% .43 65% .28
Jan
3		 Miami (OH) C- B- D- F F+ 32% 11% 57% B D- B- A+ A+ D- F A+ F+ A- B A+ A+ A+ 25% 10% 65% C A+ F+ F F A F D- F
1.02 65% 33% 27% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.3 .43 21% .18 90% .16 1.06 58% 20% 26% -10 0 0.83 31% 1.5 .47 21% .53 83% .44
Jan
6		 Central Michigan C- A A+ B A+ 44% 8% 48% B+ A+ B+ B- A- F F D F B- D A B- C 48% 16% 36% F D+ A+ B A A+ F F F
1.15 73% 75% 38% +12 +2 1.30 42% 1.3 .54 27% .17 67% .12 0.97 62% 29% 31% -1 +1 1.02 18% 1.0 .18 24% .50 81% .41
Jan
9		 Bowling Green C+ B F C- C- 31% 13% 56% C C- B A A- C- C- B+ C+ A- C+ D C- C- 43% 24% 33% A- C+ C A+ B+ A- B+ A A
1.07 65% 14% 32% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.3 .41 19% .31 78% .24 0.93 55% 42% 35% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.5 .15 21% .25 64% .16
Jan
13		 Ball St. B+ C+ A+ C+ B- 38% 7% 55% A- B F+ A+ B A+ C- A C+ F+ D F C+ F 40% 14% 46% D- F B- F D- D D+ F D-
1.26 62% 75% 35% +5 +2 1.16 27% 1.6 .42 12% .26 88% .23 1.12 60% 71% 30% +3 +1 1.10 23% 1.3 .29 15% .32 79% .26
Jan
17		 Western Michigan A+ B C- A+ A+ 33% 15% 53% C- A+ A A+ A+ B- F A+ F F D- F F F 35% 21% 44% C F F+ D F+ C B- A B
1.53 67% 38% 55% +20 0 1.42 41% 1.5 .62 12% .15 89% .13 1.31 61% 64% 48% +16 0 1.33 37% 1.1 .40 18% .25 64% .16
Jan
20		 Buffalo B- C D- A+ B 29% 12% 59% C- B D C+ C- D+ A- C- B+ A+ C+ C A+ A+ 30% 19% 52% B A+ D- A+ B B A+ B+ A+
1.17 60% 33% 43% +8 0 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 19% .33 74% .25 0.90 56% 40% 25% -7 0 0.87 32% 0.7 .23 19% .23 69% .16
Jan
23		 Ohio B C+ A+ D B 41% 30% 30% D- B- C+ F D+ C A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ 38% 34% 29% A- A+ B+ F C F+ F F F
1.17 59% 56% 31% +5 -1 1.09 35% 0.8 .29 16% .42 77% .32 0.88 33% 32% 25% -15 -2 0.68 23% 1.2 .28 12% .42 78% .33
Jan
27		 Toledo A C+ C B C 52% 9% 39% A- C+ A+ A A+ B- C A- C+ D+ C- A+ F F+ 52% 10% 38% F F B- F+ C- A B+ C- B
1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +2 1.15 49% 1.2 .57 17% .24 79% .19 1.16 59% 0% 55% +9 +2 1.25 26% 1.1 .30 21% .24 77% .18
Jan
30		 Kent St. D- D+ A+ D+ B- 29% 17% 54% C- C+ D F+ D- D- F D- F A+ A- A- A+ A+ 42% 22% 36% C+ A+ F A+ B+ B+ C- A+ B
1.01 53% 67% 32% +2 0 1.06 26% 0.8 .21 19% .22 67% .14 0.76 48% 27% 0% -25 0 0.52 45% 0.7 .30 22% .39 62% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Eastern Michigan D- F C F+ F 31% 9% 59% B- F D+ A+ B D F B- D- A- F A+ F D 32% 32% 36% B+ D+ F+ B C- A D A+ C
0.95 41% 40% 28% -10 +1 0.83 26% 1.4 .36 19% .23 77% .18 0.92 73% 20% 41% +3 -2 1.04 34% 0.8 .29 23% .30 63% .19
Feb
7		 Troy C A+ F+ F C- 35% 17% 48% C+ C- F+ B- D A+ D- C- D- D- A+ A+ F D 38% 16% 46% B D+ A F C- F C F D-
1.08 72% 33% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 11% .23 69% .16 1.23 37% 25% 52% +2 +1 1.08 26% 1.3 .35 11% .30 88% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.5 17.8 29.0 50.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 4.0 15.3 21.4 7.2 48.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.9 18.8 39.2 36.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 80.1% 29.0    16.4 12.6
16-2 45.5% 17.8    7.2 10.6
15-3 18.4% 3.5    0.7 2.4 0.3
14-4 5.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 50.5% 50.5 24.4 25.7 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 36.2% 47.6% 47.6% 0.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 7.5 9.5 0.2 19.0 0.1%
16-2 39.2% 40.8% 40.8% 12.0 2.5 11.4 2.1 0.0 23.2
15-3 18.8% 36.7% 36.7% 12.2 0.5 4.5 1.9 0.1 11.9
14-4 4.9% 34.1% 34.1% 12.4 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.0 3.2
13-5 0.8% 25.6% 25.6% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 42.0% 42.0% 0.0% 11.9 58.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.2% 100.0% 11.6 0.1 0.1 43.2 55.4 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.5% 0.1% 11.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.5%