Akron
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#112
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#90
Pace76.9#18
Improvement+1.1#153

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#92
First Shot+2.7#101
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#147
Layup/Dunks+0.5#162
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#30
Freethrows-2.5#318
Improvement+1.0#140

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#169
First Shot+1.0#144
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#246
Layups/Dunks-1.8#248
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#70
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement+0.1#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.8% 46.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round39.8% 46.2% 0.0%
Second Round3.6% 4.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 36 - 6
Quad 419 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 98   @ Arkansas St. L 75-80 OT 34%     0 - 1 +2.7 -5.8 +9.3
  Nov 12, 2024 26   @ St. Mary's L 68-87 10%     0 - 2 -1.4 +4.9 -6.2
  Nov 22, 2024 181   Lamar W 79-72 77%     1 - 2 +3.0 +1.2 +1.3
  Nov 23, 2024 149   Nebraska Omaha W 92-84 71%     2 - 2 +6.0 +21.0 -14.6
  Nov 24, 2024 288   Alabama St. W 97-78 89%     3 - 2 +8.9 +15.6 -7.6
  Dec 03, 2024 222   Northern Kentucky W 86-73 82%     4 - 2 +6.9 +14.3 -6.9
  Dec 15, 2024 144   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 81-100 60%     4 - 3 -18.0 -5.3 -9.4
  Dec 20, 2024 75   Yale L 58-74 35%     4 - 4 -8.5 -14.1 +5.9
  Dec 21, 2024 269   Jackson St. W 68-50 82%     5 - 4 +12.1 -7.6 +19.3
  Dec 30, 2024 188   @ Princeton L 75-76 59%     5 - 5 +0.3 -1.0 +1.4
  Jan 03, 2025 283   @ Bowling Green W 71-68 78%     6 - 5 1 - 0 -1.4 -5.6 +4.1
  Jan 07, 2025 219   Central Michigan W 87-71 81%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +10.1 +15.7 -4.8
  Jan 11, 2025 274   @ Eastern Michigan W 105-81 75%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +20.4 +19.9 -1.5
  Jan 14, 2025 248   Toledo W 85-78 85%     9 - 5 4 - 0 -0.5 +0.7 -1.4
  Jan 17, 2025 186   Ohio W 92-80 77%     10 - 5 5 - 0 +7.9 +9.8 -2.8
  Jan 21, 2025 346   @ Buffalo W 90-58 89%     11 - 5 6 - 0 +22.4 +5.5 +13.9
  Jan 25, 2025 160   Miami (OH) W 102-75 73%     12 - 5 7 - 0 +24.3 +20.2 +2.1
  Jan 28, 2025 347   @ Northern Illinois W 80-70 89%     13 - 5 8 - 0 +0.3 -1.8 +1.3
  Jan 31, 2025 133   @ Kent St. W 85-71 47%     14 - 5 9 - 0 +18.5 +12.0 +6.0
  Feb 04, 2025 271   Ball St. W 81-73 87%     15 - 5 10 - 0 -0.9 +7.3 -7.7
  Feb 08, 2025 131   South Alabama W 80-67 67%     16 - 5 +12.1 +9.6 +2.8
  Feb 11, 2025 296   Western Michigan W 105-92 90%     17 - 5 11 - 0 +2.5 +18.2 -16.7
  Feb 15, 2025 219   @ Central Michigan W 85-82 65%     18 - 5 12 - 0 +2.6 +1.6 +0.7
  Feb 18, 2025 347   Northern Illinois W 73-63 95%     19 - 5 13 - 0 -5.2 -5.8 +0.5
  Feb 22, 2025 186   @ Ohio L 67-84 59%     19 - 6 13 - 1 -15.6 -8.4 -6.5
  Feb 25, 2025 271   @ Ball St. W 87-82 75%     20 - 6 14 - 1 +1.6 +9.5 -7.9
  Feb 28, 2025 133   Kent St. W 77-72 67%     21 - 6 15 - 1 +4.0 +6.2 -2.2
  Mar 04, 2025 248   @ Toledo W 96-87 70%     22 - 6 16 - 1 +7.0 +13.3 -6.6
  Mar 07, 2025 346   Buffalo W 88-70 95%     23 - 6 17 - 1 +2.9 +9.7 -6.7
  Mar 13, 2025 283   Bowling Green W 83-72 84%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 17 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 100.0    100.0
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 100.0% 39.8% 39.8% 13.0 0.0 7.2 23.7 8.8 0.1 60.2
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 39.8% 39.8% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 7.2 23.7 8.8 0.1 60.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 39.8% 100.0% 13.0 0.0 18.1 59.6 22.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 23.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 23.3%
Lose Out 13.8%