Akron
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#54
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#84
Pace76.4#38
Improvement+0.0#194

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#18
First Shot+5.5#45
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#22
Layup/Dunks+3.5#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#77
Freethrows-1.6#265
Improvement+1.8#50

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#164
First Shot+0.0#168
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#182
Layups/Dunks-2.0#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#258
Freethrows+2.6#48
Improvement-1.8#321
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 2.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.5% 52.1% 45.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.3% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.4 11.2 11.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.7%
Conference Champion 74.8% 76.6% 68.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round50.4% 51.9% 45.1%
Second Round15.1% 16.4% 10.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.5% 4.8% 3.1%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 77.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 38 - 210 - 5
Quad 415 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 169 James Madison W 85-71 89%     1 - 0 +10.0 +5.1 +4.6
  Sat, Nov 8 247 Princeton W 104-69 94%     2 - 0 +27.3 +19.7 +4.3
  Sun, Nov 16 2 @Purdue L 79-97 8%     2 - 1 +7.2 +12.5 -4.7
  Fri, Nov 21 174 Iona W 96-75 84%     3 - 1 +19.8 +13.0 +4.8
  Sun, Nov 23 279 Evansville W 97-59 93%     4 - 1 +31.5 +23.4 +8.1
  Mon, Nov 24 73 Yale L 94-97 58%     4 - 2 +4.7 +25.7 -21.2
  Sat, Nov 29 221 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 105-81 93%     5 - 2 +17.4 +17.2 -2.2
  Wed, Dec 3 304 Bucknell W 97-77 96%     6 - 2 +9.1 +20.9 -11.4
  Sat, Dec 6 172 @Tulane W 87-79 77%    
  Sat, Dec 13 113 Murray St. W 92-86 71%    
  Fri, Dec 19 203 Eastern Michigan W 86-71 93%    
  Sat, Jan 3 127 @Miami (OH) W 88-84 65%    
  Tue, Jan 6 309 Central Michigan W 92-71 97%    
  Sat, Jan 10 119 @Bowling Green W 83-80 63%    
  Tue, Jan 13 316 Ball St. W 88-67 97%    
  Sat, Jan 17 267 Western Michigan W 92-73 95%    
  Tue, Jan 20 215 @Buffalo W 88-78 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 194 @Ohio W 90-81 80%    
  Tue, Jan 27 173 Toledo W 93-79 89%    
  Fri, Jan 30 122 Kent St. W 94-84 81%    
  Tue, Feb 3 203 @Eastern Michigan W 83-74 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 175 Massachusetts W 92-78 90%    
  Tue, Feb 17 267 @Western Michigan W 89-76 87%    
  Sat, Feb 21 316 @Ball St. W 85-70 91%    
  Tue, Feb 24 215 Buffalo W 91-75 92%    
  Sat, Feb 28 122 @Kent St. W 91-87 63%    
  Tue, Mar 3 309 @Central Michigan W 89-74 90%    
  Fri, Mar 6 330 Northern Illinois W 95-73 97%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 7.2 15.9 21.8 19.0 9.2 74.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.2 5.9 3.9 1.0 0.1 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.9 0.7 0.1 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 4.2 7.9 13.8 19.8 22.8 19.1 9.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 9.2    9.2
17-1 99.7% 19.0    18.5 0.5
16-2 95.5% 21.8    19.1 2.7 0.0
15-3 80.2% 15.9    11.2 4.3 0.3
14-4 51.9% 7.2    3.1 3.2 0.8 0.1
13-5 19.9% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 74.8% 74.8 61.4 11.5 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 9.2% 72.5% 68.5% 4.0% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 2.5 12.8%
17-1 19.1% 62.7% 61.9% 0.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 7.3 3.5 0.1 7.1 1.9%
16-2 22.8% 54.2% 54.1% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 4.3 7.3 0.6 0.0 10.4 0.2%
15-3 19.8% 47.5% 47.5% 12.0 0.0 1.6 6.4 1.3 0.1 10.4
14-4 13.8% 41.4% 41.4% 12.3 0.3 3.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.1
13-5 7.9% 33.0% 33.0% 12.5 0.0 1.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.3
12-6 4.2% 27.4% 27.4% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 3.1
11-7 1.9% 21.5% 21.5% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
10-8 0.8% 18.4% 18.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
9-9 0.3% 13.3% 13.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 0.1% 6.5% 6.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 50.5% 50.0% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.6 15.6 23.0 5.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 49.5 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.2% 100.0% 7.2 0.4 2.1 10.5 13.7 16.0 13.1 11.2 13.9 8.5 9.6 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 18.3% 10.7 0.8 4.6 12.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 20.2% 10.7 0.9 4.0 15.2