Princeton
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#117
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#120
Pace67.4#221
Improvement+0.2#168

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#94
First Shot+5.3#51
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#301
Layup/Dunks+0.4#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.8#8
Freethrows-1.3#254
Improvement-1.5#298

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#177
First Shot-1.2#210
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#100
Layups/Dunks-0.8#198
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#239
Freethrows+0.3#165
Improvement+1.7#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.2% 24.2% 18.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.5 13.0
.500 or above 91.5% 97.4% 89.1%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 89.5% 83.8%
Conference Champion 25.8% 31.7% 23.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.9% 2.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round20.2% 24.2% 18.6%
Second Round2.5% 3.5% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rutgers (Neutral) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 32 - 3
Quad 36 - 58 - 9
Quad 49 - 217 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 258   Iona W 81-80 85%     1 - 0 -7.3 +6.3 -13.7
  Nov 08, 2024 200   Duquesne W 75-68 67%     2 - 0 +5.3 +1.5 +3.7
  Nov 10, 2024 160   @ Northeastern W 79-76 50%     3 - 0 +5.8 +8.2 -2.5
  Nov 15, 2024 106   Loyola Chicago L 68-73 56%     3 - 1 -3.7 -3.5 -0.1
  Nov 17, 2024 198   @ Merrimack W 68-57 55%     4 - 1 +12.4 +10.9 +3.6
  Nov 21, 2024 154   Wright St. L 62-80 60%     4 - 2 -17.9 -10.4 -8.5
  Nov 22, 2024 139   Texas St. L 80-83 56%     4 - 3 -1.9 +12.0 -14.0
  Nov 24, 2024 325   Portland W 94-67 87%     5 - 3 +17.7 +11.5 +4.6
  Dec 03, 2024 96   @ Saint Joseph's W 77-69 29%     6 - 3 +16.6 +8.3 +8.2
  Dec 07, 2024 128   @ Furman L 63-69 41%     6 - 4 -0.9 -2.1 +0.9
  Dec 10, 2024 272   Monmouth W 71-67 86%     7 - 4 -5.0 -1.4 -3.3
  Dec 21, 2024 64   Rutgers L 72-78 28%    
  Dec 30, 2024 163   Akron W 81-75 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 231   @ Harvard W 73-70 63%    
  Jan 18, 2025 312   @ Dartmouth W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 20, 2025 177   Columbia W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 120   Cornell W 82-79 62%    
  Jan 31, 2025 100   Yale W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 156   Brown W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 07, 2025 274   @ Penn W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 14, 2025 156   @ Brown L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 100   @ Yale L 71-77 31%    
  Feb 21, 2025 231   Harvard W 76-67 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 312   @ Dartmouth W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 28, 2025 177   @ Columbia W 77-76 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 120   @ Cornell L 79-82 40%    
  Mar 08, 2025 274   Penn W 78-66 86%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 5.4 8.7 7.0 2.8 0.7 25.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 8.1 9.5 3.8 0.5 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 8.1 7.6 1.8 0.0 19.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 6.3 5.0 0.7 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.0 7.8 12.0 15.6 17.6 16.6 12.6 7.5 2.8 0.7 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
13-1 100.0% 2.8    2.7 0.1
12-2 93.4% 7.0    5.7 1.3 0.0
11-3 69.0% 8.7    4.7 3.6 0.4 0.0
10-4 32.5% 5.4    1.5 2.7 1.1 0.1
9-5 6.7% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 25.8% 25.8 15.3 8.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.7% 53.8% 53.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-1 2.8% 48.0% 47.9% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.5 0.1%
12-2 7.5% 39.1% 39.1% 12.3 0.1 1.7 1.0 0.1 4.6
11-3 12.6% 32.4% 32.4% 12.6 0.0 1.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.5
10-4 16.6% 27.4% 27.4% 12.9 0.0 1.3 2.4 0.8 0.0 12.1
9-5 17.6% 21.5% 21.5% 13.2 0.5 2.0 1.2 0.1 13.8
8-6 15.6% 16.3% 16.3% 13.5 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 13.1
7-7 12.0% 4.9% 4.9% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.4
6-8 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
5-9 4.0% 4.0
4-10 1.9% 1.9
3-11 0.7% 0.7
2-12 0.2% 0.2
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 6.4 8.8 3.8 0.6 0.0 79.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.4 1.3 1.3 8.0 8.0 22.7 46.7 10.7 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%