Princeton
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#129
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#108
Pace67.1#213
Improvement+0.5#164

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#134
First Shot+2.8#95
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#268
Layup/Dunks+1.2#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#30
Freethrows-1.7#285
Improvement-2.2#300

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#156
First Shot-0.5#194
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#106
Layups/Dunks-0.5#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#193
Freethrows+0.3#165
Improvement+2.7#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 17.5% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 97.9% 86.1%
Conference Champion 3.9% 5.2% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.6% 17.5% 11.6%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Away) - 68.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 35 - 68 - 8
Quad 410 - 218 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 256   Iona W 81-80 82%     1 - 0 -7.0 +7.4 -14.3
  Nov 08, 2024 142   Duquesne W 75-68 53%     2 - 0 +8.2 +2.5 +5.5
  Nov 10, 2024 206   @ Northeastern W 79-76 56%     3 - 0 +3.2 +5.8 -2.6
  Nov 15, 2024 128   Loyola Chicago L 68-73 60%     3 - 1 -5.6 -4.7 -0.8
  Nov 17, 2024 198   @ Merrimack W 68-57 54%     4 - 1 +11.8 +12.0 +1.8
  Nov 21, 2024 196   Wright St. L 62-80 63%     4 - 2 -19.6 -11.1 -9.5
  Nov 22, 2024 184   Texas St. L 80-83 62%     4 - 3 -4.3 +9.2 -13.6
  Nov 24, 2024 299   Portland W 94-67 82%     5 - 3 +19.3 +9.8 +7.9
  Dec 03, 2024 86   @ Saint Joseph's W 77-69 24%     6 - 3 +17.2 +8.7 +8.4
  Dec 07, 2024 165   @ Furman L 63-69 47%     6 - 4 -3.4 -5.2 +1.4
  Dec 10, 2024 253   Monmouth W 71-67 82%     7 - 4 -3.8 -0.9 -2.6
  Dec 21, 2024 63   Rutgers W 83-82 25%     8 - 4 +9.9 +10.2 -0.3
  Dec 30, 2024 100   Akron W 76-75 49%     9 - 4 +3.2 -0.4 +3.6
  Jan 11, 2025 241   @ Harvard W 68-64 65%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +1.9 +2.9 -0.6
  Jan 18, 2025 257   @ Dartmouth W 81-80 68%     11 - 4 2 - 0 -2.0 +5.5 -7.6
  Jan 20, 2025 237   Columbia W 71-67 80%     12 - 4 3 - 0 -2.9 -6.5 +3.8
  Jan 25, 2025 122   Cornell L 76-85 58%     12 - 5 3 - 1 -9.2 +0.0 -9.2
  Jan 31, 2025 69   Yale L 70-77 37%     12 - 6 3 - 2 -1.6 +4.1 -6.3
  Feb 01, 2025 214   Brown W 69-49 76%     13 - 6 4 - 2 +14.6 -1.2 +17.6
  Feb 07, 2025 273   @ Penn W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 14, 2025 214   @ Brown W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 69   @ Yale L 70-78 20%    
  Feb 21, 2025 241   Harvard W 75-66 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 257   @ Dartmouth W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 28, 2025 237   @ Columbia W 80-76 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 122   @ Cornell L 78-81 37%    
  Mar 08, 2025 273   Penn W 78-67 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.2 1.1 3.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 10.5 15.2 6.3 0.2 34.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 6.4 17.7 17.2 4.8 0.2 46.6 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 5.6 2.7 0.3 10.8 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.8 12.8 22.8 28.1 20.6 8.7 1.3 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 84.0% 1.1    0.6 0.4
11-3 25.6% 2.2    0.5 1.3 0.4
10-4 2.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-5 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.2 2.0 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 1.3% 32.0% 32.0% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.9
11-3 8.7% 26.2% 26.2% 12.5 0.0 1.2 0.9 0.1 6.4
10-4 20.6% 20.9% 20.9% 12.9 1.2 2.4 0.7 0.0 16.3
9-5 28.1% 16.9% 16.9% 13.4 0.4 2.4 1.9 0.1 23.3
8-6 22.8% 13.9% 13.9% 13.7 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.4 19.6
7-7 12.8% 5.6% 5.6% 13.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 12.0
6-8 4.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 4.8
5-9 1.0% 1.0
4-10 0.1% 0.1
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 13.2 0.1 3.2 7.1 4.6 0.7 84.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.9 17.5 75.0 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%