Dartmouth
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#261
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#308
Pace75.2#49
Improvement+3.2#19

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#258
First Shot-0.2#183
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#341
Layup/Dunks-9.4#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.5#14
Freethrows+0.8#137
Improvement+1.7#54

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#243
First Shot-4.7#322
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#51
Layups/Dunks-6.4#351
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#79
Freethrows-0.8#237
Improvement+1.5#56
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 3.7% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 8.5% 23.4% 6.8%
.500 or above in Conference 23.9% 36.0% 22.5%
Conference Champion 1.5% 3.6% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 35.8% 25.3% 37.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round1.6% 3.4% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 10.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 46 - 69 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sun, Nov 9 159 Marist L 56-75 41%     0 - 1 -22.3 -14.4 -7.1
  Wed, Nov 12 295 @Bryant L 75-82 45%     0 - 2 -11.5 -2.5 -8.5
  Sun, Nov 16 283 Appalachian St. L 77-85 65%     0 - 3 -17.6 -2.0 -15.4
  Sat, Nov 29 329 @St. Peter's W 87-61 54%     1 - 3 +19.3 +17.8 +3.3
  Wed, Dec 3 344 New Hampshire W 69-68 79%     2 - 3 -13.4 -8.2 -5.1
  Sat, Dec 6 106 @Wyoming L 70-83 10%    
  Tue, Dec 9 74 @Colorado St. L 67-83 6%    
  Sat, Dec 13 235 Boston University W 75-73 57%    
  Tue, Dec 16 301 @Holy Cross L 73-74 47%    
  Fri, Dec 19 255 @Sacred Heart L 80-83 38%    
  Mon, Dec 29 15 @Florida L 65-92 1%    
  Mon, Jan 5 193 @Harvard L 69-75 28%    
  Sat, Jan 10 150 @Cornell L 81-90 21%    
  Sat, Jan 17 240 Penn W 80-78 56%    
  Mon, Jan 19 247 Princeton W 73-71 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 140 Columbia L 75-79 35%    
  Fri, Jan 30 73 @Yale L 71-87 7%    
  Sat, Jan 31 225 @Brown L 67-72 34%    
  Sat, Feb 7 193 Harvard L 72-73 48%    
  Fri, Feb 13 73 Yale L 74-84 18%    
  Sat, Feb 14 225 Brown W 70-69 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 140 @Columbia L 72-82 18%    
  Fri, Feb 27 240 @Penn L 77-81 35%    
  Sat, Feb 28 247 @Princeton L 70-74 36%    
  Sat, Mar 7 150 Cornell L 84-87 40%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 5 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.0 3.7 1.4 0.1 8.6 3rd
4th 0.3 3.8 5.8 1.4 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.4 4.3 7.3 1.9 0.1 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.9 8.5 2.5 0.1 16.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 6.2 8.6 2.9 0.1 19.4 7th
8th 1.2 4.9 8.2 7.2 2.4 0.1 24.0 8th
Total 1.2 5.0 9.6 13.9 16.4 16.1 13.9 11.0 6.4 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-2 95.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1
11-3 67.2% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0
10-4 29.5% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-5 5.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.3% 27.5% 27.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-3 0.7% 18.6% 18.6% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
10-4 1.9% 13.2% 13.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
9-5 3.6% 10.0% 10.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.3
8-6 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 6.0
7-7 11.0% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.0 0.4 10.5
6-8 13.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-9 16.1% 16.1
4-10 16.4% 16.4
3-11 13.9% 13.9
2-12 9.6% 9.6
1-13 5.0% 5.0
0-14 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%