Dartmouth
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#257
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#245
Pace75.2#38
Improvement+5.0#17

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#283
First Shot+0.1#171
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#353
Layup/Dunks-6.2#348
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#25
Freethrows+0.2#161
Improvement+3.4#27

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#217
First Shot-4.5#312
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#10
Layups/Dunks-5.6#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#220
Freethrows+1.4#85
Improvement+1.6#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.2% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 7.9% 12.2% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 43.4% 57.4% 23.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 1.8% 9.8%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
First Round1.3% 1.7% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Home) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 47 - 610 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 288   Sacred Heart W 81-76 65%     1 - 0 -4.4 -4.9 +0.1
  Nov 13, 2024 280   Albany L 73-87 64%     1 - 1 -23.1 -6.3 -16.4
  Nov 16, 2024 294   @ Boston University L 50-78 47%     1 - 2 -32.8 -21.6 -12.1
  Nov 19, 2024 211   @ Marist L 62-75 30%     1 - 3 -13.2 -8.4 -4.5
  Nov 29, 2024 176   @ Boston College W 88-83 25%     2 - 3 +6.7 +9.5 -3.1
  Dec 03, 2024 357   @ New Hampshire W 69-65 71%     3 - 3 -7.3 -6.5 -0.8
  Dec 08, 2024 123   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-69 OT 17%     3 - 4 +3.6 -14.1 +17.9
  Dec 11, 2024 83   @ Notre Dame L 65-77 8%     3 - 5 -2.2 -3.5 +1.0
  Dec 14, 2024 203   @ Umass Lowell L 83-92 28%     3 - 6 -8.6 +6.3 -14.7
  Dec 18, 2024 355   Le Moyne L 76-80 84%     3 - 7 -19.9 -9.2 -10.5
  Dec 21, 2024 240   Vermont W 84-54 56%     4 - 7 +22.9 +14.8 +9.3
  Jan 11, 2025 273   Penn W 73-70 62%     5 - 7 1 - 0 -5.8 -6.4 +0.6
  Jan 18, 2025 129   Princeton L 80-81 32%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -1.6 +4.0 -5.6
  Jan 20, 2025 69   @ Yale L 67-83 8%     5 - 9 1 - 2 -5.7 -6.8 +2.3
  Jan 25, 2025 214   @ Brown W 84-83 31%     6 - 9 2 - 2 +0.6 +8.8 -8.3
  Jan 31, 2025 122   @ Cornell L 64-76 17%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -7.2 -9.0 +1.5
  Feb 01, 2025 237   @ Columbia W 95-89 36%     7 - 10 3 - 3 +4.0 +6.8 -3.4
  Feb 08, 2025 241   Harvard W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 14, 2025 237   Columbia W 82-81 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 122   Cornell L 80-85 33%    
  Feb 21, 2025 273   @ Penn L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 129   Princeton L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 28, 2025 69   Yale L 71-82 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 214   Brown L 73-74 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 241   @ Harvard L 71-74 36%    
Projected Record 10 - 15 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.1 1.1 0.1 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.5 7.3 3.1 0.3 15.5 3rd
4th 1.4 11.6 15.4 5.2 0.4 34.0 4th
5th 0.3 8.8 12.1 2.5 0.1 23.8 5th
6th 0.1 4.4 8.2 1.6 14.4 6th
7th 1.1 4.2 1.2 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.2 8th
Total 2.1 9.3 19.6 25.7 22.5 13.6 5.6 1.5 0.1 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 46.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-4 7.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
9-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-4 1.5% 8.7% 8.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
9-5 5.6% 3.7% 3.7% 15.4 0.1 0.1 5.4
8-6 13.6% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.1 0.5 13.0
7-7 22.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.5 22.0
6-8 25.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 25.5
5-9 19.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.6
4-10 9.3% 9.3
3-11 2.1% 2.1
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.1%