Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 #206
Expected Predictive Rating -2.6 #214
Pace 60.0 #362
Improvement +4.1 #30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #226 C- C+ C F C
Defense #193 C C D- C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #255 1.20 #132 -0.8 #211
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #220 0.68 #286 -1.5 #255
Three Pointers 46% #85 0.94 #269 +0.7 #154
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #223 -1.5 #223
Freethrows 15.5 #270 58% #365 9.1 #353
Second Chance 29.7% #211 1.14 #59 0.34 #130
Turnovers 16.0% #150
Total Offense -2.2 #226

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #225 1.09 #90 +2.1 #111
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #263 0.79 #227 +0.9 #126
Three Pointers 45% #75 1.02 #192 -2.0 #274
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #158 +1.0 #147
Freethrows 16.5 #143 71% #91 11.7 #125
Second Chance 31.9% #247 1.01 #134 0.32 #192
Turnovers 13.7% #327
Total Defense -0.7 #193

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #184 0.5% #208
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.3% #226 -2.0% #148
Possession Length 17.9 #226 17.6 #230
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #321 0.17 #162
Improvement +3.1 #36 +0.9 #122

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 4.2% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 15.2
.500 or above 73.3% 75.3% 44.4%
.500 or above in Conference 78.6% 80.6% 49.2%
Conference Champion 0.9% 0.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round4.1% 4.2% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 93.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 33 - 64 - 8
Quad 412 - 716 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 322 @Central Michigan L 66 - 82 66% -12  0 - 1 -23 -5 F D+ B- -19 F C- C
 Sun, Nov 9 346 NC Central W 76 - 54 87% +16  1 - 1 +7 +3 F A+ A+ +6 A A D+
 Tue, Nov 11 30 @Ohio St. L 53 - 75 4% -6  1 - 2 -5 -6 F A- C+ -2 A+ F F
 Sun, Nov 16 221 @Dartmouth W 85 - 77 41% +5  2 - 2 +7 +9 A+ C- F -2 D- C+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 173 Charlotte W 65 - 63 55% -2  3 - 2 -2 +3 C+ B- C- -5 A+ F C
 Mon, Nov 24 184 Elon L 53 - 88 57% -17  3 - 3 -40 -18 F F C -27 A- F F
 Wed, Nov 26 149 @Mercer L 67 - 75 27% +3  3 - 4 -4 +2 F B+ A+ -8 A- F D+
 Sun, Nov 30 205 @UNC Asheville L 55 - 67 38% -8  3 - 5 -12 -13 F D C- -0 B F A-
 Thu, Dec 11 267 @East Carolina W 67 - 54 50% +9  4 - 5 +10 +0 C B F +11 A+ B F
 Sun, Dec 14 98 High Point W 86 - 78 OT 22% +2  5 - 5 +13 +6 A F A+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 252 Coastal Carolina W 67 - 49 69% +4  6 - 5 1 - 0 +10 -3 A+ F F +14 A+ B- C
 Sat, Dec 20 273 Georgia St. L 63 - 70 73% -4  6 - 6 1 - 1 -16 -9 D+ F A- -8 F A+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 240 @Old Dominion W 81 - 73 44% +13  7 - 6 2 - 1 +7 +13 B- A+ D- -5 F A F
 Sat, Jan 3 163 @Marshall L 81 - 88 30% -8  7 - 7 2 - 2 -4 +8 B A- C+ -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 273 @Georgia St. W 52 - 50 51% -2  8 - 7 3 - 2 -1 -12 F C- D- +11 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 252 @Coastal Carolina L 62 - 67 47% +5  8 - 8 3 - 3 -7 +3 F A- A+ -11 F C D
 Thu, Jan 15 231 James Madison W 80 - 65 66% +11  9 - 8 4 - 3 +8 +17 A+ A+ B -6 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 240 Old Dominion L 73 - 75 67% -10  9 - 9 4 - 4 -9 +3 D B+ A+ -12 F C C-
 Thu, Jan 22 312 Louisiana W 72 - 58 81% +1  10 - 9 5 - 4 +2 +9 A+ C- F -4 A- F F
 Fri, Jan 23 361 Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 63 94%
 Thu, Jan 29 244 @Southern Miss L 67 - 68 45%
 Sat, Jan 31 112 @Troy L 63 - 72 20%
 Wed, Feb 4 191 South Alabama W 66 - 64 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 198 Eastern Michigan W 67 - 64 60%
 Wed, Feb 11 251 @Georgia Southern L 72 - 73 47%
 Sat, Feb 14 231 @James Madison L 67 - 69 44%
 Thu, Feb 19 163 Marshall W 71 - 70 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 251 Georgia Southern W 75 - 70 68%
 Fri, Feb 27 263 @Texas St. L 65 - 66 50%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 8 -3 -2 C- C+ C -1 C C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.8 0.1 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.7 6.1 5.4 0.9 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 5.4 8.9 1.2 0.0 15.7 4th
5th 1.6 10.3 3.0 0.1 15.0 5th
6th 0.1 6.4 6.6 0.3 13.4 6th
7th 1.3 8.6 1.4 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.1 4.1 4.4 0.1 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 5.5 0.8 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.1 2.4 2.8 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.4 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.4 5.7 14.1 22.0 24.5 19.0 9.7 3.1 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 58.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.4% 24.3% 24.3% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
13-5 3.1% 18.9% 18.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.5
12-6 9.7% 11.6% 11.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 8.6
11-7 19.0% 6.5% 6.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 17.7
10-8 24.5% 2.7% 2.7% 14.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 23.9
9-9 22.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 21.7
8-10 14.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.0
7-11 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.7
6-12 1.4% 1.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 14.5 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%