Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.5#25
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#74
Pace70.8#149
Improvement+0.3#167

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#34
First Shot+11.1#4
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#340
Layup/Dunks+2.1#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#57
Freethrows+3.0#41
Improvement-0.5#225

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#26
First Shot+5.0#41
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#82
Layups/Dunks+2.9#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#46
Freethrows-0.6#230
Improvement+0.8#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.3% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 3.0% 4.2% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 14.9% 19.7% 8.0%
Top 6 Seed 34.4% 43.1% 22.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.3% 82.7% 64.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.7% 82.2% 64.3%
Average Seed 6.7 6.4 7.4
.500 or above 91.6% 95.5% 86.1%
.500 or above in Conference 72.9% 81.9% 60.2%
Conference Champion 2.3% 3.4% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four5.4% 4.4% 6.8%
First Round72.9% 80.7% 62.0%
Second Round49.6% 57.0% 39.4%
Sweet Sixteen20.7% 24.5% 15.5%
Elite Eight8.5% 10.2% 6.0%
Final Four3.4% 4.2% 2.2%
Championship Game1.4% 1.7% 0.8%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Northwestern (Away) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 9
Quad 27 - 313 - 12
Quad 32 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 354 IU Indianapolis W 118-102 99%     1 - 0 -0.1 +13.4 -16.4
  Fri, Nov 7 236 Purdue Fort Wayne W 94-68 97%     2 - 0 +18.5 +11.9 +5.7
  Tue, Nov 11 283 Appalachian St. W 75-53 98%     3 - 0 +12.4 +8.6 +6.8
  Sun, Nov 16 56 Notre Dame W 64-63 78%     4 - 0 +7.5 -2.6 +10.2
  Thu, Nov 20 267 Western Michigan W 91-58 97%     5 - 0 +24.1 +10.2 +12.7
  Tue, Nov 25 307 Mount St. Mary's W 113-60 98%     6 - 0 +41.9 +29.9 +9.6
  Fri, Nov 28 92 @Pittsburgh L 66-67 72%     6 - 1 +7.4 +1.6 +5.7
  Sat, Dec 6 60 @Northwestern W 76-74 58%    
  Tue, Dec 9 17 Illinois W 79-78 52%    
  Sat, Dec 13 65 West Virginia W 72-66 70%    
  Sat, Dec 20 21 North Carolina L 77-78 48%    
  Tue, Dec 23 284 Grambling St. W 83-59 99%    
  Fri, Jan 2 120 @Rutgers W 76-68 77%    
  Mon, Jan 5 49 Nebraska W 81-74 72%    
  Thu, Jan 8 80 @Oregon W 77-73 65%    
  Sun, Jan 11 57 @Washington W 77-75 58%    
  Sat, Jan 17 31 UCLA W 74-70 64%    
  Tue, Jan 20 95 Minnesota W 76-64 87%    
  Fri, Jan 23 1 @Michigan L 70-85 9%    
  Mon, Jan 26 96 Penn St. W 83-71 87%    
  Sat, Jan 31 36 @Wisconsin L 77-79 45%    
  Thu, Feb 5 86 @Maryland W 78-73 69%    
  Sun, Feb 8 1 Michigan L 73-82 22%    
  Wed, Feb 11 32 USC W 81-77 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 26 Virginia W 75-74 50%    
  Tue, Feb 17 36 Wisconsin W 80-76 65%    
  Sun, Feb 22 10 @Michigan St. L 68-76 25%    
  Wed, Feb 25 27 @Iowa L 70-73 41%    
  Sun, Mar 1 2 Purdue L 73-78 34%    
  Wed, Mar 4 96 @Penn St. W 80-74 71%    
  Sat, Mar 7 24 Indiana W 76-73 60%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.9 0.8 0.1 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.9 1.2 0.1 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.5 4.1 1.5 0.2 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.8 1.8 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.8 3.8 3.7 0.5 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.3 2.3 4.1 1.1 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 4.0 1.8 0.1 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.1 13th
14th 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.2 2.4 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.5 7.5 10.0 12.1 13.5 13.1 11.8 9.5 6.4 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 80.5% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
17-3 50.3% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 12.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
15-5 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.9% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 2.7 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.7% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 3.4 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 100.0%
15-5 6.4% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 4.2 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.5% 99.9% 4.1% 95.7% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 11.8% 99.5% 2.3% 97.3% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.4 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
12-8 13.1% 97.4% 1.9% 95.5% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 3.6 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.3 97.3%
11-9 13.5% 92.2% 0.9% 91.3% 8.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 3.5 2.8 1.5 0.4 1.1 92.1%
10-10 12.1% 77.8% 0.8% 77.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 2.5 2.2 1.2 0.0 2.7 77.6%
9-11 10.0% 48.9% 0.3% 48.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.8 0.1 5.1 48.8%
8-12 7.5% 19.9% 19.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.0 19.9%
7-13 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.3 4.0%
6-14 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 2.9 0.2%
5-15 1.5% 1.5
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 75.3% 2.4% 72.9% 6.7 0.9 2.1 4.6 7.3 9.3 10.3 11.3 10.7 8.2 6.0 4.5 0.3 0.0 24.7 74.7%