Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.3 #30
Expected Predictive Rating +13.0 #42
Pace 67.9 #217
Improvement +1.3 #118

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #20 A+ B- B- A C-
Defense #55 A- B+ C- C+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #213 1.46 #3 +4.9 #39
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #110 0.98 #11 +3.8 #30
Three Pointers 39% #218 1.06 #121 -0.1 #181
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #9 +8.6 #9
Freethrows 20.4 #42 79% #13 16.2 #15
Second Chance 35.1% #60 1.05 #177 0.37 #85
Turnovers 15.1% #87
Total Offense +9.5 #20

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #345 1.08 #80 +6.1 #22
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #13 0.77 #204 -3.4 #355
Three Pointers 41% #182 0.88 #36 +2.8 #77
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #39 +5.5 #39
Freethrows 15.2 #81 79% #359 12.0 #154
Second Chance 27.4% #68 0.96 #64 0.26 #52
Turnovers 15.5% #235
Total Defense +4.8 #55

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #253 -3.3% #14
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 18.0% #2 -7.7% #50
Possession Length 16.3 #82 18.7 #342
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #300 0.10 #21
Improvement +2.5 #52 -1.3 #267

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 5.8% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 13.9% 32.5% 12.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.7% 93.3% 76.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.5% 93.1% 75.8%
Average Seed 8.1 7.2 8.2
.500 or above 98.7% 99.9% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 81.0% 95.6% 79.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.7% 4.2% 9.2%
First Round73.9% 91.8% 72.0%
Second Round42.3% 56.9% 40.7%
Sweet Sixteen12.1% 18.5% 11.4%
Elite Eight4.4% 8.0% 4.1%
Final Four1.5% 3.1% 1.3%
Championship Game0.5% 1.2% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 9.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 10
Quad 27 - 212 - 12
Quad 33 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 337 IU Indianapolis W 118 - 102 99% +12  1 - 0 +2 +14 A+ C D+ -16 F D- C-
 Fri, Nov 7 212 Purdue Fort Wayne W 94 - 68 96% +14  2 - 0 +20 +14 A+ B F +5 A+ D+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 206 Appalachian St. W 75 - 53 96% +6  3 - 0 +16 +10 D- A+ A+ +9 A+ C C-
 Sun, Nov 16 84 Notre Dame W 64 - 63 83% -3  4 - 0 +5 -3 C F C +8 B A+ A
 Thu, Nov 20 260 Western Michigan W 91 - 58 97% +25  5 - 0 +25 +9 A+ D+ F +14 A+ A- A
 Tue, Nov 25 288 Mount St. Mary's W 113 - 60 98% +25  6 - 0 +43 +33 A+ A+ B+ +8 B A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 91 @Pittsburgh L 66 - 67 70% -4  6 - 1 +8 +1 C- C+ F +7 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 60 @Northwestern W 86 - 82 59% +0  7 - 1 1 - 0 +16 +16 A+ C B +0 A- F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 9 Illinois L 80 - 88 38% -4  7 - 2 1 - 1 +9 +14 A+ A+ A+ -5 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 52 West Virginia W 89 - 88 2OT 64% -4  8 - 2 +12 +8 D A+ A+ +3 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 31 North Carolina L 70 - 71 50% -4  8 - 3 +13 +8 B D+ A+ +5 A+ B D-
 Tue, Dec 23 287 Grambling St. W 89 - 63 98% +13  9 - 3 +16 +17 A+ F C- -0 A+ F B-
 Fri, Jan 2 115 @Rutgers W 80 - 73 78% -1  10 - 3 2 - 1 +13 +21 A+ C+ D -7 C+ F D-
 Mon, Jan 5 14 Nebraska L 69 - 72 47% -5  10 - 4 2 - 2 +12 +6 A+ F A+ +6 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 68 @Oregon W 72 - 62 62% +8  11 - 4 3 - 2 +21 +13 B- A+ F +10 A+ A F
 Sun, Jan 11 47 @Washington L 74 - 81 51% -0  11 - 5 3 - 3 +7 +13 B- B C- -7 C A- F
 Sat, Jan 17 36 UCLA W 86 - 74 64% +9  12 - 5 4 - 3 +22 +28 A A+ A+ -4 B+ B F
 Tue, Jan 20 71 Minnesota W 82 - 74 OT 81% +2  13 - 5 5 - 3 +13 +12 A A+ A+ +1 A A D-
 Fri, Jan 23 1 @Michigan L 74 - 88 10%
 Mon, Jan 26 116 Penn St. W 85 - 71 91%
 Sat, Jan 31 35 @Wisconsin L 79 - 81 42%
 Thu, Feb 5 100 @Maryland W 79 - 73 72%
 Sun, Feb 8 1 Michigan L 77 - 85 24%
 Wed, Feb 11 48 USC W 81 - 75 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 16 Virginia L 72 - 76 37%
 Tue, Feb 17 35 Wisconsin W 82 - 78 64%
 Sun, Feb 22 11 @Michigan St. L 67 - 76 21%
 Wed, Feb 25 23 @Iowa L 69 - 74 31%
 Sun, Mar 1 5 Purdue L 74 - 78 36%
 Wed, Mar 4 116 @Penn St. W 82 - 74 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 37 Indiana W 80 - 76 64%
Totals 19 - 12 11 - 9 +14 +10 A+ B- B- +5 A- B+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.4 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 7.0 6.2 0.7 15.9 6th
7th 1.2 7.1 8.2 1.7 0.0 18.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 5.6 9.0 2.9 0.1 18.0 8th
9th 0.3 3.5 8.7 3.9 0.3 16.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 5.3 3.1 0.3 10.1 10th
11th 0.3 2.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.3 11.9 19.0 22.3 19.4 12.7 5.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 26.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.5% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 4.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.6% 99.7% 3.8% 95.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 12.7% 99.4% 1.8% 97.6% 6.9 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.0 4.6 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.1 99.4%
12-8 19.4% 96.7% 1.4% 95.3% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.1 5.8 3.4 1.4 0.1 0.6 96.6%
11-9 22.3% 90.0% 0.9% 89.1% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 5.5 5.7 4.0 1.3 0.0 2.2 89.9%
10-10 19.0% 71.2% 0.6% 70.6% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.3 4.1 3.3 0.1 5.5 71.1%
9-11 11.9% 38.1% 0.3% 37.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.6 0.1 7.4 37.9%
8-12 5.3% 12.7% 0.1% 12.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 4.6 12.7%
7-13 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.0%
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 77.7% 1.2% 76.5% 8.1 22.3 77.5%