Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#37
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#48
Pace67.9#187
Improvement-4.8#341

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#30
First Shot+7.1#31
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#137
Layup/Dunks+1.9#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#96
Freethrows+2.1#66
Improvement-1.3#252

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#46
First Shot+9.6#6
After Offensive Rebounds-4.1#361
Layups/Dunks+6.9#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#53
Freethrows-1.0#260
Improvement-3.6#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 2.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.6% 90.6% 62.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.2% 90.2% 62.3%
Average Seed 10.3 9.7 10.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four38.4% 19.2% 49.4%
First Round55.5% 81.9% 40.3%
Second Round23.7% 35.7% 16.8%
Sweet Sixteen6.7% 8.5% 5.7%
Elite Eight2.3% 3.2% 1.7%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 46 - 12
Quad 24 - 310 - 15
Quad 32 - 012 - 15
Quad 46 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 44   Texas W 80-72 57%     1 - 0 +19.6 +11.8 +7.7
  Nov 11, 2024 200   Youngstown St. W 81-47 94%     2 - 0 +29.3 +8.1 +21.2
  Nov 15, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M L 64-78 29%     2 - 1 +5.1 +5.0 -0.5
  Nov 19, 2024 242   Evansville W 80-30 96%     3 - 1 +42.8 +9.6 +35.0
  Nov 22, 2024 220   Campbell W 104-60 95%     4 - 1 +38.0 +26.0 +10.2
  Nov 25, 2024 334   Green Bay W 102-69 99%     5 - 1 +19.0 +17.0 +0.7
  Nov 29, 2024 60   Pittsburgh L 90-91 OT 74%     5 - 2 +5.7 +12.8 -7.0
  Dec 04, 2024 11   @ Maryland L 59-83 23%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -3.0 -5.2 +3.7
  Dec 07, 2024 65   Rutgers W 80-66 76%     6 - 3 1 - 1 +19.9 +13.2 +7.5
  Dec 14, 2024 2   Auburn L 53-91 15%     6 - 4 -13.8 -7.0 -9.5
  Dec 17, 2024 208   Valparaiso W 95-73 95%     7 - 4 +16.6 +12.6 +2.6
  Dec 21, 2024 14   Kentucky W 85-65 34%     8 - 4 +37.6 +20.4 +18.0
  Dec 29, 2024 196   Indiana St. W 103-83 94%     9 - 4 +15.4 +13.7 -0.6
  Jan 03, 2025 8   Michigan St. L 62-69 37%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +9.7 +0.3 +9.3
  Jan 06, 2025 86   @ Minnesota W 89-88 2OT 65%     10 - 5 2 - 2 +10.4 +10.7 -0.5
  Jan 09, 2025 34   Oregon L 71-73 59%     10 - 6 2 - 3 +8.8 +2.2 +6.7
  Jan 14, 2025 15   @ Wisconsin L 68-70 26%     10 - 7 2 - 4 +18.1 +5.5 +12.5
  Jan 17, 2025 42   Indiana L 76-77 OT 66%     10 - 8 2 - 5 +8.1 +7.3 +0.8
  Jan 21, 2025 16   @ Purdue W 73-70 26%     11 - 8 3 - 5 +23.0 +12.5 +10.8
  Jan 27, 2025 63   Iowa W 82-65 74%     12 - 8 4 - 5 +23.4 +8.0 +15.4
  Jan 30, 2025 58   @ Penn St. W 83-64 52%     13 - 8 5 - 5 +31.7 +19.3 +13.2
  Feb 02, 2025 17   @ Illinois L 79-87 27%     13 - 9 5 - 6 +11.6 +11.5 +0.4
  Feb 06, 2025 11   Maryland W 73-70 41%     14 - 9 6 - 6 +18.5 +10.2 +8.3
  Feb 09, 2025 57   @ Nebraska L 71-79 52%     14 - 10 6 - 7 +4.8 +8.7 -4.4
  Feb 12, 2025 104   Washington W 93-69 87%     15 - 10 7 - 7 +25.2 +20.9 +4.4
  Feb 16, 2025 30   Michigan L 83-86 57%     15 - 11 7 - 8 +8.5 +16.9 -8.4
  Feb 20, 2025 51   Northwestern L 49-70 69%     15 - 12 7 - 9 -12.9 -13.7 -1.7
  Feb 23, 2025 24   @ UCLA L 61-69 31%     15 - 13 7 - 10 +10.3 +2.2 +7.5
  Feb 26, 2025 62   @ USC W 87-82 55%     16 - 13 8 - 10 +17.0 +21.2 -4.0
  Mar 04, 2025 57   Nebraska W 116-114 2OT 72%     17 - 13 9 - 10 +9.3 +23.5 -14.6
  Mar 08, 2025 42   @ Indiana L 60-66 45%     17 - 14 9 - 11 +8.6 +0.9 +7.2
  Mar 12, 2025 63   Iowa W 83-79 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 100.0 100.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 100.0% 72.6% 1.5% 71.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.7 2.8 6.9 19.7 38.6 3.0 27.4 72.2%
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 72.6% 1.5% 71.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.7 2.8 6.9 19.7 38.6 3.0 27.4 72.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 6.0 2.0 2.7 28.0 34.0 24.0 9.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.4% 98.8% 8.3 1.5 10.4 46.9 34.3 5.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.6% 95.0% 9.4 0.2 11.5 40.8 37.1 5.4
Lose Out 63.5% 62.3% 10.9 0.0 0.4 9.8 47.5 4.5