Oregon
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#45
Expected Predictive Rating+15.7#22
Pace69.5#144
Improvement-5.4#347

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#43
First Shot+6.6#33
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#209
Layup/Dunks+3.7#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#163
Freethrows+2.9#33
Improvement-2.4#309

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#51
First Shot+5.0#44
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#148
Layups/Dunks+2.6#83
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#273
Freethrows+4.1#4
Improvement-2.9#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 4.3% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 14.3% 29.0% 9.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.0% 98.0% 88.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.8% 97.9% 88.7%
Average Seed 8.1 7.3 8.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 48.2% 72.3% 40.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four6.9% 2.2% 8.3%
First Round87.3% 96.7% 84.4%
Second Round41.0% 51.2% 37.8%
Sweet Sixteen10.5% 14.8% 9.1%
Elite Eight3.3% 4.7% 2.9%
Final Four1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 23.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 7
Quad 24 - 413 - 11
Quad 34 - 017 - 11
Quad 44 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 163   UC Riverside W 91-76 90%     1 - 0 +12.7 +15.6 -3.1
  Nov 08, 2024 207   Montana W 79-48 93%     2 - 0 +26.2 +7.9 +20.7
  Nov 12, 2024 299   Portland W 80-70 OT 97%     3 - 0 -0.2 -10.1 +8.7
  Nov 17, 2024 111   Troy W 82-61 84%     4 - 0 +21.8 +6.1 +14.6
  Nov 21, 2024 76   @ Oregon St. W 78-75 56%     5 - 0 +13.0 +12.4 +0.7
  Nov 26, 2024 19   Texas A&M W 80-70 33%     6 - 0 +26.0 +17.4 +8.8
  Nov 27, 2024 52   San Diego St. W 78-68 55%     7 - 0 +20.2 +16.8 +3.8
  Nov 30, 2024 5   Alabama W 83-81 22%     8 - 0 +21.7 +12.6 +8.9
  Dec 04, 2024 54   @ USC W 68-60 47%     9 - 0 1 - 0 +20.4 +2.2 +18.4
  Dec 08, 2024 29   UCLA L 71-73 49%     9 - 1 1 - 1 +9.8 +8.2 +1.5
  Dec 15, 2024 270   Stephen F. Austin W 79-61 96%     10 - 1 +9.4 +6.3 +2.9
  Dec 21, 2024 78   Stanford W 76-61 66%     11 - 1 +22.4 +8.0 +14.8
  Dec 29, 2024 286   Weber St. W 89-49 96%     12 - 1 +30.7 +10.2 +20.5
  Jan 02, 2025 13   Illinois L 77-109 38%     12 - 2 1 - 2 -17.3 +3.3 -17.3
  Jan 05, 2025 16   Maryland W 83-79 40%     13 - 2 2 - 2 +18.2 +22.2 -3.8
  Jan 09, 2025 25   @ Ohio St. W 73-71 30%     14 - 2 3 - 2 +19.1 +7.5 +11.6
  Jan 12, 2025 50   @ Penn St. W 82-81 46%     15 - 2 4 - 2 +13.7 +13.1 +0.6
  Jan 18, 2025 9   Purdue L 58-65 35%     15 - 3 4 - 3 +8.5 -8.5 +17.0
  Jan 21, 2025 89   Washington W 82-71 77%     16 - 3 5 - 3 +14.8 +13.2 +1.7
  Jan 25, 2025 92   @ Minnesota L 69-77 62%     16 - 4 5 - 4 +0.5 +5.2 -5.2
  Jan 30, 2025 29   @ UCLA L 52-78 31%     16 - 5 5 - 5 -9.2 -3.0 -10.4
  Feb 02, 2025 48   Nebraska L 71-77 63%     16 - 6 5 - 6 +2.1 +4.7 -2.8
  Feb 05, 2025 18   @ Michigan L 73-80 24%    
  Feb 08, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 70-78 22%    
  Feb 11, 2025 56   Northwestern W 72-68 68%    
  Feb 16, 2025 63   Rutgers W 77-72 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 60   @ Iowa L 81-82 46%    
  Feb 22, 2025 17   @ Wisconsin L 72-79 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 54   USC W 77-73 66%    
  Mar 04, 2025 53   Indiana W 77-73 66%    
  Mar 09, 2025 89   @ Washington W 75-72 58%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 0.6 1.3 4th
5th 0.6 2.0 0.4 2.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 2.6 0.1 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 2.4 6.1 1.0 9.4 7th
8th 1.1 8.8 5.3 0.2 15.4 8th
9th 0.2 6.9 10.2 1.1 0.0 18.4 9th
10th 2.1 10.0 2.6 0.0 14.7 10th
11th 0.1 5.1 5.4 0.2 10.9 11th
12th 0.9 6.1 1.0 0.0 8.0 12th
13th 0.0 2.4 3.0 0.1 5.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 2.8 0.5 3.5 14th
15th 0.8 1.4 0.0 2.3 15th
16th 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.0 16th
17th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 17th
18th 0.1 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.3 2.2 7.7 17.0 24.6 24.3 15.8 6.4 1.6 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 6.3% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 100.0% 9.0% 91.0% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 6.4% 100.0% 3.7% 96.3% 5.9 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-9 15.8% 99.9% 1.9% 98.0% 6.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.5 6.5 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 99.9%
10-10 24.3% 99.4% 0.9% 98.5% 7.7 0.0 0.5 2.2 6.9 9.5 4.5 0.5 0.0 0.2 99.4%
9-11 24.6% 96.6% 0.6% 96.0% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 6.0 10.0 5.1 0.6 0.8 96.6%
8-12 17.0% 86.4% 0.2% 86.1% 9.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.2 6.3 3.0 2.3 86.3%
7-13 7.7% 53.6% 53.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 0.1 3.6 53.6%
6-14 2.2% 13.2% 13.2% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.9 13.2%
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 91.0% 1.1% 89.9% 8.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.9 8.9 16.9 20.4 19.6 12.9 6.7 0.2 9.1 90.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%