Oregon
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.1 #68
Expected Predictive Rating +4.4 #100
Pace 66.7 #241
Improvement +1.9 #99

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #72 C A+ C- C+ B
Defense #84 B- B- C B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #154 1.10 #254 -0.8 #212
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #298 0.85 #59 -1.4 #248
Three Pointers 46% #86 1.05 #131 +3.3 #79
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #148 +1.1 #144
Freethrows 18.5 #123 72% #211 13.3 #141
Second Chance 38.9% #13 1.14 #65 0.44 #22
Turnovers 17.1% #225
Total Offense +4.7 #72

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #325 1.01 #27 +6.0 #25
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #52 0.88 #332 -3.4 #354
Three Pointers 42% #145 0.98 #132 +0.2 #173
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #92 +2.8 #91
Freethrows 14.8 #61 75% #286 11.1 #93
Second Chance 29.2% #121 0.97 #74 0.28 #92
Turnovers 16.4% #183
Total Defense +3.4 #84

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #80 -2.1% #36
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.6% #165 -3.4% #115
Possession Length 17.5 #191 18.0 #279
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #206 0.17 #191
Improvement +1.9 #84 +0.0 #188

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 1.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 10.8
.500 or above 4.4% 10.2% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.9% 2.5% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 3.9% 14.3%
First Four0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 28.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 80 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 62 - 13
Quad 23 - 54 - 19
Quad 33 - 17 - 19
Quad 46 - 013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 106 Hawaii W 60 - 59 74% +3  1 - 0 +2 -12 F A F +15 A+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 239 Rice W 67 - 63 92% +0  2 - 0 -3 -7 F B+ D+ +4 B+ B- A
 Wed, Nov 12 170 South Dakota St. W 83 - 69 87% +5  3 - 0 +10 +7 B- B B+ +3 B B+ C-
 Mon, Nov 17 195 Oregon St. W 87 - 75 89% +7  4 - 0 +7 +13 A- A+ C -6 C C- C
 Mon, Nov 24 27 Auburn L 73 - 84 26% -3  4 - 1 +4 +5 D- A+ F -1 A+ C F
 Tue, Nov 25 46 San Diego St. L 80 - 97 38% -10  4 - 2 -6 +14 A+ C B -20 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 44 Creighton L 66 - 76 37% -6  4 - 3 +1 -1 F B+ B +2 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 48 USC L 77 - 82 51% +1  4 - 4 0 - 1 +3 +11 A+ A+ F -8 D- D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 36 @UCLA L 63 - 74 21% -8  4 - 5 0 - 2 +5 +7 F A+ B -3 B- D+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 181 UC Davis W 104 - 62 88% +30  5 - 5 +38 +25 A+ A+ C+ +11 A+ A+ B
 Wed, Dec 17 210 Portland W 94 - 69 90% +11  6 - 5 +19 +9 A+ C+ D- +8 A B- B-
 Sun, Dec 21 6 Gonzaga L 82 - 91 13% -4  6 - 6 +12 +21 A+ A+ A+ -10 C+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 261 Nebraska Omaha W 80 - 57 93% +11  7 - 6 +14 +10 B+ C B- +7 A+ C- D-
 Fri, Jan 2 100 @Maryland W 64 - 54 50% +5  8 - 6 1 - 2 +18 +1 B- C F +18 A+ A+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 115 @Rutgers L 85 - 88 OT 57% +1  8 - 7 1 - 3 +3 +11 C+ A+ F -8 C- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 30 Ohio St. L 62 - 72 38% -8  8 - 8 1 - 4 +1 -0 F A- A+ +0 A+ D- A+
 Tue, Jan 13 14 @Nebraska L 55 - 90 12% -14  8 - 9 1 - 5 -14 -2 B- C- F -15 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 1 Michigan L 71 - 81 10% -6  8 - 10 1 - 6 +12 +12 C+ A+ B- -1 C A A+
 Tue, Jan 20 11 Michigan St. L 52 - 68 20% -4  8 - 11 1 - 7 +1 +1 C A- B- -3 F A+ A-
 Sun, Jan 25 47 @Washington L 71 - 77 29%
 Wed, Jan 28 36 UCLA L 71 - 73 41%
 Sun, Feb 1 23 Iowa L 67 - 72 30%
 Sat, Feb 7 5 @Purdue L 66 - 82 6%
 Mon, Feb 9 37 @Indiana L 71 - 79 22%
 Sat, Feb 14 116 Penn St. W 80 - 72 77%
 Tue, Feb 17 71 Minnesota W 70 - 67 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 48 @USC L 72 - 78 29%
 Wed, Feb 25 35 Wisconsin L 76 - 79 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 60 @Northwestern L 71 - 75 36%
 Tue, Mar 3 9 @Illinois L 68 - 83 8%
 Sat, Mar 7 47 Washington W 75 - 74 51%
Totals 12 - 19 5 - 15 +8 +5 C A+ C- +3 B- B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.2 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 2.7 0.7 0.0 4.8 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 4.7 2.3 0.1 8.4 12th
13th 0.8 6.0 5.4 0.7 0.0 12.8 13th
14th 0.7 7.0 9.1 2.1 0.1 18.8 14th
15th 0.3 4.7 10.3 3.5 0.2 19.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 3.6 9.2 4.3 0.4 17.7 16th
17th 0.1 1.5 5.2 3.2 0.3 10.1 17th
18th 0.6 2.1 1.5 0.1 4.2 18th
Total 0.7 3.7 10.5 17.9 22.7 20.2 13.8 6.9 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 44.0% 44.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 44.0%
10-10 0.8% 32.7% 32.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 32.7%
9-11 2.7% 5.0% 5.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 5.0%
8-12 6.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 6.9 0.2%
7-13 13.8% 13.8
6-14 20.2% 20.2
5-15 22.7% 22.7
4-16 17.9% 17.9
3-17 10.5% 10.5
2-18 3.7% 3.7
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 10.4 99.5 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%