Oregon
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#34
Expected Predictive Rating+17.1#13
Pace68.6#161
Improvement-1.4#248

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#39
First Shot+7.3#28
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#206
Layup/Dunks+4.0#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#151
Freethrows+3.1#34
Improvement-1.0#241

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#41
First Shot+6.1#28
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#132
Layups/Dunks+2.9#76
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#257
Freethrows+4.1#3
Improvement-0.4#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 13.1% 21.7% 2.1%
Top 6 Seed 77.8% 90.5% 61.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 5.7 5.3 6.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round65.5% 69.7% 60.0%
Sweet Sixteen25.0% 28.7% 20.1%
Elite Eight6.4% 7.0% 5.7%
Final Four1.8% 2.1% 1.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.1% 0.2%

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 7
Quad 28 - 216 - 9
Quad 34 - 020 - 9
Quad 43 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 142   UC Riverside W 91-76 92%     1 - 0 +13.3 +14.8 -1.7
  Nov 08, 2024 172   Montana W 79-48 93%     2 - 0 +27.6 +8.5 +21.5
  Nov 12, 2024 273   Portland W 80-70 OT 97%     3 - 0 +1.0 -10.0 +9.7
  Nov 17, 2024 101   Troy W 82-61 87%     4 - 0 +22.6 +7.4 +14.1
  Nov 21, 2024 89   @ Oregon St. W 78-75 69%     5 - 0 +11.6 +10.1 +1.7
  Nov 26, 2024 22   Texas A&M W 80-70 40%     6 - 0 +26.3 +18.6 +7.9
  Nov 27, 2024 54   San Diego St. W 78-68 61%     7 - 0 +20.8 +16.5 +4.6
  Nov 30, 2024 5   Alabama W 83-81 24%     8 - 0 +23.0 +13.0 +9.9
  Dec 04, 2024 62   @ USC W 68-60 56%     9 - 0 1 - 0 +20.0 +0.4 +19.8
  Dec 08, 2024 24   UCLA L 71-73 53%     9 - 1 1 - 1 +10.8 +8.5 +2.2
  Dec 15, 2024 282   Stephen F. Austin W 79-61 97%     10 - 1 +8.3 +5.0 +3.1
  Dec 21, 2024 84   Stanford W 76-61 75%     11 - 1 +21.7 +9.4 +12.7
  Dec 29, 2024 284   Weber St. W 89-49 98%     12 - 1 +30.1 +11.0 +19.0
  Jan 02, 2025 17   Illinois L 77-109 48%     12 - 2 1 - 2 -17.9 +1.4 -15.9
  Jan 05, 2025 11   Maryland W 83-79 43%     13 - 2 2 - 2 +19.5 +24.5 -4.8
  Jan 09, 2025 37   @ Ohio St. W 73-71 41%     14 - 2 3 - 2 +18.1 +5.8 +12.2
  Jan 12, 2025 58   @ Penn St. W 82-81 53%     15 - 2 4 - 2 +13.7 +13.5 +0.2
  Jan 18, 2025 16   Purdue L 58-65 46%     15 - 3 4 - 3 +7.5 -10.9 +18.3
  Jan 21, 2025 104   Washington W 82-71 87%     16 - 3 5 - 3 +12.2 +10.4 +1.9
  Jan 25, 2025 86   @ Minnesota L 69-77 66%     16 - 4 5 - 4 +1.4 +6.1 -5.2
  Jan 30, 2025 24   @ UCLA L 52-78 32%     16 - 5 5 - 5 -7.7 -2.5 -9.4
  Feb 02, 2025 57   Nebraska L 71-77 73%     16 - 6 5 - 6 +1.3 +3.7 -2.6
  Feb 05, 2025 30   @ Michigan L 76-80 37%     16 - 7 5 - 7 +13.0 +7.9 +5.3
  Feb 08, 2025 8   @ Michigan St. L 74-86 21%     16 - 8 5 - 8 +10.2 +15.4 -5.3
  Feb 11, 2025 51   Northwestern W 81-75 70%     17 - 8 6 - 8 +14.1 +16.8 -2.3
  Feb 16, 2025 65   Rutgers W 75-57 77%     18 - 8 7 - 8 +23.9 +12.9 +13.3
  Feb 19, 2025 63   @ Iowa W 80-78 56%     19 - 8 8 - 8 +13.9 +16.2 -2.1
  Feb 22, 2025 15   @ Wisconsin W 77-73 OT 27%     20 - 8 9 - 8 +24.1 +5.4 +18.4
  Mar 01, 2025 62   USC W 82-61 75%     21 - 8 10 - 8 +27.5 +10.4 +17.2
  Mar 04, 2025 42   Indiana W 73-64 67%     22 - 8 11 - 8 +18.1 +10.8 +7.9
  Mar 09, 2025 104   @ Washington W 80-73 OT 75%     23 - 8 12 - 8 +13.7 +8.8 +4.7
  Mar 13, 2025 42   Indiana W 74-72 57%    
Projected Record 24 - 8 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 100.0% 100.0% 2.4% 97.6% 5.7 0.1 3.2 9.9 27.2 37.6 19.6 2.5 0.1 100.0%
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 2.4% 97.6% 5.7 0.1 3.2 9.9 27.2 37.6 19.6 2.5 0.1 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 3.5 2.5 51.2 42.1 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.9% 100.0% 4.4 15.0 41.5 35.4 8.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.4% 100.0% 5.0 4.5 25.2 43.3 24.8 2.2
Lose Out 43.7% 100.0% 6.2 0.3 1.8 16.8 42.6 33.2 5.2 0.2