Iowa
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +16.0 25
Expected Predictive Rating +15.8 30
Pace 61.2 351
Improvement -3.2 309

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #22 A B- B B B-
Defense B #35 C+ B A C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 66 68% 20 +6.8 14
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 250 50% 5 +0.7 134
Three Pointers 40% 207 39% 20 +2.4 102
1st FG Attempt 1.22 3 +9.9 3
Second Chance 33.6% 90 1.07 111 0.36 85
Turnovers 14.9% 60
Freethrows 0.33 101 76% 54 0.25 65
Total Offense +9.6 22

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 179 60% 231 -0.9 208
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 135 34% 52 +0.4 152
Three Pointers 40% 232 31% 74 +2.2 90
1st FG Attempt 0.98 123 +1.7 124
Second Chance 26.9% 61 0.94 65 0.25 47
Turnovers 22.6% 8
Freethrows 0.31 207 72% 168 0.22 204
Total Defense +6.4 35

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.8 80 -0.1 148
Shot Type Accuracy +8.8 5 -1.6 116
Possession Length 18.8 328 18.1 303
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 226 0.11 18
Improvement +0.3 #159 -3.6 #334

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 1% 0%
Top 4 Seed 5% 8% 2%
Top 6 Seed 26% 40% 15%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93% 98% 89%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93% 98% 89%
Average Seed 7.6 6.9 8.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 93% 99% 89%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 1% 7%
First Round91% 97% 86%
Second Round57% 65% 51%
Sweet Sixteen19% 24% 15%
Elite Eight7% 9% 6%
Final Four3% 3% 2%
Championship Game1% 1% 1%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Purdue (Home) - 44.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 15 - 8
Quad 27 - 111 - 10
Quad 33 - 115 - 11
Quad 48 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 204 Robert Morris W 101 - 69 97% +21  99% 1 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +24 A+ A+ C B- +3 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 362 Western Illinois W 77 - 58 100% +10  92% 2 - 0 C -1 C +1 A F A- C -0 C- C+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 83 Xavier W 81 - 62 87% +10  79% 3 - 0 A +23 B+ +7 A+ D D A+ +15 A+ B- A
 Tue, Nov 18 230 Southeast Missouri St. W 99 - 70 97% +19  100% 4 - 0 A +22 A+ +24 A+ A+ B C -1 D+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 353 Chicago St. W 93 - 54 99% +18  98% 5 - 0 A +22 A+ +23 B- A+ A+ B +5 B B- B
 Tue, Nov 25 65 Mississippi W 74 - 69 76% +2  78% 6 - 0 B+ +13 A- +10 C A+ A+ B +4 B- F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 68 Grand Canyon W 59 - 46 77% +6  75% 7 - 0 A +21 C +1 C+ B- D+ A+ +23 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 10 @Michigan St. L 52 - 71 26% -12  10% 7 - 1 0 - 1 C+ +4 C +0 B C D+ C -0 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 104 Maryland W 83 - 64 91% +15  94% 8 - 1 1 - 1 A +20 B+ +7 A C B+ A+ +13 A- B- A+
 Thu, Dec 11 8 @Iowa St. L 62 - 66 23% +1  44% 8 - 2 A +20 B+ +8 A+ B D- A +11 A+ A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 14 295 Western Michigan W 91 - 51 98% +30  99% 9 - 2 A+ +29 A+ +16 A+ C- A- A+ +17 A+ D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 324 Bucknell W 94 - 39 98% +23  84% 10 - 2 A+ +45 A+ +22 A+ A+ A- A+ +27 C A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 318 Umass Lowell W 90 - 62 99% +19  99% 11 - 2 A- +15 A+ +14 A C- B B- +3 D- B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 34 UCLA W 74 - 61 67% +10  94% 12 - 2 2 - 1 A+ +24 A +13 A+ D- D- A+ +13 B A+ A
 Tue, Jan 6 71 @Minnesota L 67 - 70 69% -6  7% 12 - 3 2 - 2 B- +8 C- -1 C+ C- D A- +9 C A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 11 6 Illinois L 69 - 75 41% -10  0% 12 - 4 2 - 3 B+ +12 C+ +3 B C+ C+ A- +9 B- A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 9 @Purdue L 72 - 79 23% +1  56% 12 - 5 2 - 4 A- +17 A +12 A+ A- D B- +4 C- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 29 @Indiana W 74 - 57 43% +9  95% 13 - 5 3 - 4 A+ +35 A+ +22 A+ D+ B+ A+ +17 B+ A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 20 122 Rutgers W 68 - 62 93% +1  49% 14 - 5 4 - 4 B- +6 D+ -2 B- F D+ A- +9 D+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 47 USC W 73 - 72 77% +1  48% 15 - 5 5 - 4 B +9 B- +5 C- A+ F+ B +4 D B+ A
 Sun, Feb 1 80 @Oregon W 84 - 66 72% +7  88% 16 - 5 6 - 4 A+ +28 A+ +29 A+ D- A+ B- +3 A+ F+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 46 @Washington W 84 - 74 56% +1  46% 17 - 5 7 - 4 A+ +24 A+ +28 A+ D- A+ C- -2 F+ F A-
 Sun, Feb 8 64 Northwestern W 76 - 70 84% +3  61% 18 - 5 8 - 4 B+ +11 A +12 B+ B+ A C+ +0 C- A A-
 Wed, Feb 11 104 @Maryland L 70 - 77 79% -2  23% 18 - 6 8 - 5 C +0 B +7 C C+ A+ D -7 F D- A
 Sat, Feb 14 9 Purdue L 70 - 72 44%
 Tue, Feb 17 15 Nebraska W 71 - 70 51%
 Sun, Feb 22 33 @Wisconsin L 74 - 75 45%
 Wed, Feb 25 39 Ohio St. W 76 - 71 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 109 @Penn St. W 78 - 69 80%
 Thu, Mar 5 1 Michigan L 72 - 79 27%
 Sun, Mar 8 15 @Nebraska L 68 - 74 30%
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 9 +16 A- +10 A B- B B +6 C+ B A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A- A+ A- A 43% 17% 40% B- A B- C+ B- B B- B B B C- B B- C+ 39% 22% 40% C C+ B B B A C C C
1.22 68% 50% 39% +9 +1 1.22 34% 1.1 .36 15% .33 76% .25 0.99 60% 34% 31% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.9 .25 23% .31 72% .24
Nov
4		 Robert Morris A+ A+ F A+ A+ 57% 10% 33% A A+ A+ A A+ C A+ A- A+ B- F A+ F F 19% 24% 57% A F F D+ F A+ F A+ F
1.47 79% 25% 43% +15 +3 1.38 45% 1.2 .55 16% .76 82% .62 1.00 86% 11% 48% +10 -2 1.19 45% 1.2 .52 33% .48 55% .26
Nov
7		 Western Illinois C A+ C+ A A+ 37% 11% 52% C+ A F F F A- B C+ B C D A C- D 28% 37% 35% A C- B+ D C+ A F+ F F
1.22 82% 40% 42% +15 +1 1.35 15% 0.0 .00 11% .36 75% .27 0.92 58% 25% 33% -5 -3 0.86 21% 1.0 .21 22% .37 83% .31
Nov
14		 Xavier B+ A+ D C A+ 54% 26% 20% B- A+ B F D D A+ B+ A+ A+ C+ F A+ A+ 28% 11% 60% F A+ A+ F B- A C+ A+ B+
1.15 84% 33% 33% +13 0 1.28 32% 0.5 .16 20% .48 74% .36 0.88 60% 50% 22% -9 0 0.85 18% 1.3 .23 17% .24 57% .14
Nov
18		 Southeast Missouri St. A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 41% 14% 45% C+ A+ A- A+ A+ B A+ C A+ C B- F C D+ 46% 17% 37% D+ D+ F+ F F A+ F A+ D+
1.45 78% 67% 40% +16 +1 1.36 36% 1.8 .64 16% .68 74% .51 1.03 53% 57% 33% 0 +1 1.05 34% 1.5 .52 25% .41 57% .23
Nov
20		 Chicago St. A+ A+ F D+ C+ 42% 2% 56% B+ B- A A+ A+ A+ C B- C+ B A+ F A+ B- 32% 48% 20% A B B C B- B D+ D- D-
1.52 81% 0% 32% +7 +3 1.22 46% 2.0 .92 11% .35 79% .28 0.88 36% 52% 11% -7 -4 0.80 24% 0.9 .21 18% .30 80% .24
Nov
25		 Mississippi A- F B B- C 37% 26% 37% C C B- A+ A+ A+ A B+ A+ B D+ B- B B 29% 33% 38% C- B- A F F A+ F F F
1.15 41% 42% 35% -4 -1 0.91 32% 1.6 .53 11% .42 75% .31 1.07 67% 36% 31% 0 -2 0.98 24% 1.8 .44 20% .39 85% .33
Nov
26		 Grand Canyon C F A+ D- C 43% 13% 45% A C+ A- D+ B- D+ A+ D A A+ B- B+ D+ C+ 46% 18% 36% D+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A
0.98 41% 80% 28% -6 +1 0.93 33% 1.0 .33 20% .45 68% .31 0.76 56% 29% 36% -2 +1 1.00 15% 0.0 .00 31% .22 78% .17
Dec
2		 Michigan St. C D+ F B- B- 36% 13% 51% A- B C+ C- C D+ A+ F B+ C B- C+ A+ A+ 47% 22% 31% D- A+ F F F A+ F F F
0.89 50% 20% 35% -4 +1 0.95 20% 0.7 .13 19% .36 65% .23 1.21 59% 38% 18% -7 0 0.89 52% 1.6 .84 24% .56 88% .49
Dec
6		 Maryland B+ D- A+ A+ A 46% 25% 30% C A D A C B+ F F F A+ A- A+ D- A 38% 23% 40% B- A- C B B- A+ F A F
1.18 50% 64% 47% +9 0 1.19 24% 1.3 .29 14% .20 50% .10 0.91 47% 11% 38% -8 0 0.85 35% 1.0 .35 26% .73 63% .46
Dec
11		 Iowa St. B+ A- A- A+ A+ 34% 36% 30% D A+ B B B D- F F F A C A+ B A+ 44% 21% 35% C A+ A+ A+ A+ C- F D- F
1.01 67% 44% 46% +10 -2 1.18 31% 1.1 .35 26% .11 60% .07 1.07 63% 22% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.8 .24 15% .44 74% .32
Dec
14		 Western Michigan A+ A A A+ A+ 40% 8% 52% B A+ C D+ C- A- C- F+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 21% 45% C A+ D- B- D+ B+ F A+ C-
1.42 71% 50% 48% +17 +2 1.40 31% 1.1 .34 9% .29 65% .19 0.79 38% 10% 24% -20 0 0.62 36% 0.9 .33 20% .43 50% .21
Dec
20		 Bucknell A+ A- A+ A A+ 49% 16% 35% A- A+ A+ B- A+ A- F A+ F+ A+ F A+ A+ C 31% 15% 54% C+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.44 70% 67% 42% +15 +1 1.35 50% 1.2 .58 14% .21 83% .18 0.60 75% 17% 24% -6 0 0.90 12% 0.7 .08 38% .15 67% .10
Dec
29		 Umass Lowell A+ A A+ C- A 60% 15% 25% A- A C+ D C- B A+ A+ A+ B- D- A+ F+ D- 50% 20% 30% D D- C+ A B+ A- D- A+ B-
1.37 72% 57% 33% +11 +2 1.29 33% 1.0 .33 11% .41 92% .38 0.95 64% 22% 38% +2 +1 1.07 30% 0.8 .23 24% .36 50% .18
Jan
3		 UCLA A A+ A+ B+ A+ 16% 26% 58% F+ A+ A+ F D- D- A+ A+ A+ A+ B- F A+ B+ 40% 33% 27% C+ B D A+ A+ A A A+ A+
1.19 83% 80% 36% +17 -2 1.32 42% 0.5 .19 23% .54 85% .46 0.98 58% 56% 23% +2 -2 1.02 36% 0.3 .12 19% .24 67% .16
Jan
6		 Minnesota C- F A+ C C+ 31% 29% 40% D+ C+ A- F C- D C- A- C A- D+ F A C 40% 18% 42% C+ C A+ A+ A+ D+ F F+ F
0.98 44% 53% 33% 0 -2 0.98 36% 0.6 .21 21% .24 77% .18 1.03 67% 63% 26% +3 0 1.09 11% 0.7 .07 15% .48 75% .36
Jan
11		 Illinois C+ A F D+ B- 32% 21% 46% A- B C+ C+ C+ C+ D- A+ C- A- D+ A+ C+ B 46% 8% 46% F+ B- A+ A+ A+ A A+ D+ A+
1.04 67% 25% 31% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 12% .10 100% .10 1.14 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.12 30% 0.9 .27 18% .20 82% .17
Jan
14		 Purdue A A+ A- A+ A+ 24% 28% 48% C- A+ D+ A+ A- D C F C- B- F C+ F D+ 38% 32% 30% B C- A+ A- A+ C+ F F F
1.12 73% 46% 45% +14 -2 1.26 20% 1.8 .36 20% .20 60% .12 1.23 78% 40% 43% +12 -1 1.23 25% 1.0 .25 14% .40 86% .34
Jan
17		 Indiana A+ A+ B A+ A+ 33% 29% 38% C- A+ C+ F D+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ B+ A- 44% 7% 49% D+ B+ D- A+ A+ B- B- B+ B
1.29 79% 42% 44% +14 -1 1.26 29% 0.8 .24 14% .46 91% .42 0.99 67% 33% 30% +1 +2 1.07 35% 0.3 .12 16% .31 73% .23
Jan
20		 Rutgers D+ B B C- B- 40% 21% 38% C+ B- F+ F F D+ B+ A- A- A- F A+ B- D+ 33% 28% 40% D+ D+ C A+ A+ A+ F F+ F
1.05 63% 40% 33% +2 0 1.06 24% 0.7 .17 19% .30 81% .25 0.96 77% 27% 31% +2 -1 1.03 35% 0.6 .19 29% .53 79% .42
Jan
28		 USC B- C- F D+ D+ 33% 17% 50% C+ C- A- A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ B D F D+ D- 38% 32% 30% B+ D A C+ B+ A A+ B A+
1.07 53% 25% 30% -6 0 0.89 36% 1.3 .48 22% .41 86% .36 1.06 67% 53% 36% +9 -1 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 22% .30 69% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Oregon A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 12% 39% A+ A+ C- F D- A+ F B+ F+ B- B+ F A+ A+ 33% 23% 44% A- A+ D- D F+ D+ C+ F D
1.42 71% 67% 53% +21 +2 1.47 28% 0.6 .16 8% .18 80% .15 1.12 50% 50% 21% -8 -1 0.84 41% 1.2 .50 15% .32 88% .28
Feb
4		 Washington A+ A+ A A+ A+ 35% 27% 38% B- A+ F C+ D- A+ A+ F B+ C- F D F+ F 41% 25% 34% D+ F+ B- F F A- A- D- B+
1.37 82% 46% 50% +20 -1 1.40 17% 1.0 .17 7% .37 62% .23 1.21 72% 45% 40% +11 0 1.23 35% 1.9 .65 20% .22 82% .18
Feb
8		 Northwestern A B- A+ F B 49% 20% 32% B+ B+ A C B+ A A+ A A+ C+ A- A+ F D+ 36% 32% 32% A C- A+ F A A- F F F
1.22 60% 63% 23% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.9 .38 13% .54 79% .43 1.13 50% 29% 57% +5 -2 1.09 13% 2.0 .25 16% .42 91% .38
Feb
11		 Maryland B A- D+ F C- 42% 12% 46% B+ C B- C C+ A+ C+ A- B- D F F D+ F 37% 15% 49% D+ F F+ C D- A F B F
1.13 67% 33% 26% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.0 .31 6% .29 76% .22 1.24 80% 50% 35% +11 +1 1.24 42% 1.1 .46 23% .58 68% .39



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 0.5 1.6 3rd
4th 0.9 2.1 0.1 3.1 4th
5th 0.6 5.7 1.7 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 8.7 7.7 0.4 17.4 6th
7th 0.1 6.1 12.1 1.5 19.8 7th
8th 2.3 12.3 4.4 0.1 19.1 8th
9th 0.4 8.3 7.7 0.3 16.7 9th
10th 0.1 2.7 6.0 0.8 9.5 10th
11th 0.5 2.5 1.0 0.0 4.0 11th
12th 0.3 0.1 0.4 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.9 5.7 17.7 27.6 26.1 15.9 5.3 0.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.1% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.9% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 3.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.3% 100.0% 3.8% 96.2% 5.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
13-7 15.9% 99.9% 2.9% 97.0% 6.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.4 5.0 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 26.1% 98.7% 1.6% 97.2% 7.1 0.1 0.3 1.9 5.3 8.6 6.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.3 98.7%
11-9 27.6% 95.7% 1.2% 94.5% 8.2 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.3 7.8 7.0 3.4 0.5 1.2 95.6%
10-10 17.7% 86.5% 0.8% 85.7% 9.3 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.6 4.3 5.0 2.2 0.0 2.4 86.4%
9-11 5.7% 55.3% 0.7% 54.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.6 55.0%
8-12 0.9% 24.7% 24.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 24.7%
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.9% 1.7% 91.2% 7.6 7.1 92.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 3.4 2.9 17.1 25.7 42.9 11.4