Iowa
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#42
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#66
Pace77.7#19
Improvement+1.4#87

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#19
First Shot+9.2#6
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#251
Layup/Dunks+6.1#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#56
Freethrows-2.5#314
Improvement+2.5#31

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#104
First Shot+2.4#105
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#157
Layups/Dunks-3.8#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#51
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
Freethrows+4.0#6
Improvement-1.1#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.4% 2.4% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 8.4% 8.5% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.4% 44.5% 25.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.0% 43.1% 24.3%
Average Seed 8.3 8.3 8.7
.500 or above 83.0% 83.1% 59.2%
.500 or above in Conference 51.6% 51.7% 40.8%
Conference Champion 2.2% 2.2% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 2.5% 3.9%
First Four6.2% 6.2% 4.5%
First Round41.3% 41.4% 21.7%
Second Round22.1% 22.2% 9.4%
Sweet Sixteen7.0% 7.1% 2.6%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.6% 1.0%
Final Four0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 10
Quad 25 - 310 - 13
Quad 32 - 012 - 14
Quad 47 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 90-64 99%    
  Nov 07, 2024 232   Southern W 89-74 94%     1 - 0 +8.3 +11.3 -3.6
  Nov 12, 2024 235   South Dakota W 96-77 94%     2 - 0 +11.9 +10.1 +1.0
  Nov 15, 2024 77   Washington St. W 76-66 64%     3 - 0 +17.1 +0.5 +15.7
  Nov 19, 2024 300   Rider W 83-58 96%     4 - 0 +14.6 +2.4 +11.4
  Nov 22, 2024 54   Utah St. L 69-77 54%     4 - 1 +1.9 -5.6 +8.2
  Nov 26, 2024 338   South Carolina Upstate W 110-77 98%     5 - 1 +18.8 +16.7 -2.0
  Dec 03, 2024 61   Northwestern W 80-79 67%     6 - 1 1 - 0 +7.1 +12.7 -5.6
  Dec 07, 2024 21   @ Michigan L 83-85 27%     6 - 2 1 - 1 +15.2 +13.6 +1.8
  Dec 12, 2024 5   Iowa St. L 80-89 29%     6 - 3 +7.4 +12.5 -4.9
  Dec 15, 2024 345   New Orleans W 104-57 98%     7 - 3 +32.1 +25.6 +7.3
  Dec 21, 2024 66   Utah W 83-81 59%    
  Dec 30, 2024 356   New Hampshire W 91-64 99%    
  Jan 03, 2025 36   @ Wisconsin L 80-84 33%    
  Jan 07, 2025 53   Nebraska W 82-78 64%    
  Jan 11, 2025 45   Indiana W 85-82 62%    
  Jan 14, 2025 76   @ USC W 80-79 51%    
  Jan 17, 2025 14   @ UCLA L 70-77 24%    
  Jan 21, 2025 114   Minnesota W 77-67 83%    
  Jan 24, 2025 30   Penn St. W 85-84 54%    
  Jan 27, 2025 38   @ Ohio St. L 78-82 36%    
  Feb 04, 2025 20   Purdue L 80-81 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 36   Wisconsin W 83-81 55%    
  Feb 12, 2025 64   @ Rutgers L 81-82 47%    
  Feb 16, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 78-85 25%    
  Feb 19, 2025 23   Oregon L 80-81 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 82   Washington W 84-77 74%    
  Feb 25, 2025 16   @ Illinois L 80-87 25%    
  Feb 28, 2025 61   @ Northwestern L 73-74 45%    
  Mar 06, 2025 15   Michigan St. L 78-79 45%    
  Mar 09, 2025 53   @ Nebraska L 79-81 42%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 2.5 0.8 0.1 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 1.5 0.1 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.2 1.3 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.2 3.4 3.3 0.3 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 4.9 1.2 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 4.1 3.4 0.2 8.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.9 4.7 1.0 0.0 7.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.9 2.7 0.1 7.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 7.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 1.7 0.1 6.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 3.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.9 6.5 9.4 12.2 14.1 14.1 12.7 10.1 7.0 4.3 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 97.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 89.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 69.1% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 34.8% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 9.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.9% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.2% 99.8% 12.2% 87.6% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 4.3% 99.6% 10.3% 89.3% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 7.0% 96.7% 7.2% 89.4% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.9 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 96.4%
12-8 10.1% 89.4% 4.1% 85.3% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 1.1 88.9%
11-9 12.7% 75.4% 2.1% 73.2% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.6 2.8 1.2 0.0 3.1 74.8%
10-10 14.1% 53.5% 1.7% 51.8% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.5 2.3 0.2 6.5 52.7%
9-11 14.1% 22.2% 0.6% 21.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 0.3 10.9 21.7%
8-12 12.2% 4.9% 0.3% 4.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 11.6 4.6%
7-13 9.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.1%
6-14 6.5% 6.5
5-15 3.9% 3.9
4-16 1.6% 1.6
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 44.4% 2.5% 41.9% 8.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.7 7.8 8.1 7.8 6.0 0.5 55.6 43.0%