Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#96
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#80
Pace69.3#191
Improvement+0.0#192

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#69
First Shot+3.1#99
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#82
Layup/Dunks+5.1#35
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#126
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#300
Freethrows+1.3#121
Improvement-0.1#189

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#163
First Shot+0.7#147
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#225
Layups/Dunks-1.9#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#279
Freethrows+4.1#12
Improvement+0.1#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 9.8% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.5% 9.8% 2.7%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 9.7
.500 or above 38.2% 61.3% 35.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.4% 14.2% 4.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.5% 11.1% 28.7%
First Four1.3% 3.4% 1.0%
First Round2.8% 7.8% 2.1%
Second Round1.0% 2.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 12.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 11
Quad 22 - 44 - 15
Quad 32 - 17 - 16
Quad 48 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 294 Fairfield W 76-68 92%     1 - 0 -2.5 -0.7 -1.6
  Sat, Nov 8 346 @New Haven W 87-43 89%     2 - 0 +35.5 +23.9 +17.1
  Tue, Nov 11 198 Navy W 80-71 84%     3 - 0 +3.6 +7.0 -3.2
  Sat, Nov 15 229 La Salle W 83-69 81%     4 - 0 +10.0 +17.3 -6.0
  Wed, Nov 19 193 Harvard W 84-80 83%     5 - 0 -1.2 +16.9 -17.8
  Sat, Nov 22 72 Providence L 65-77 40%     5 - 1 -4.3 -6.6 +2.3
  Tue, Nov 25 235 Boston University W 96-87 88%     6 - 1 +1.5 +25.4 -22.9
  Sat, Nov 29 255 Sacred Heart W 90-59 89%     7 - 1 +22.6 +1.3 +18.4
  Tue, Dec 2 224 Campbell W 87-76 86%     8 - 1 +4.2 +7.2 -3.5
  Tue, Dec 9 24 @Indiana L 70-82 12%    
  Sat, Dec 13 10 Michigan St. L 67-78 16%    
  Sun, Dec 21 92 Pittsburgh L 72-73 49%    
  Mon, Dec 29 336 NC Central W 83-64 96%    
  Sat, Jan 3 17 Illinois L 74-86 14%    
  Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 70-88 5%    
  Sat, Jan 10 2 @Purdue L 66-86 3%    
  Wed, Jan 14 31 UCLA L 70-75 31%    
  Sun, Jan 18 86 @Maryland L 75-79 36%    
  Thu, Jan 22 36 Wisconsin L 76-81 33%    
  Mon, Jan 26 25 @Ohio St. L 71-83 13%    
  Thu, Jan 29 60 @Northwestern L 72-79 27%    
  Sun, Feb 1 95 Minnesota W 72-69 61%    
  Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 67-91 2%    
  Sun, Feb 8 32 USC L 78-83 31%    
  Wed, Feb 11 57 @Washington L 73-80 26%    
  Sat, Feb 14 80 @Oregon L 74-79 33%    
  Wed, Feb 18 120 Rutgers W 76-71 67%    
  Sat, Feb 21 49 @Nebraska L 74-83 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 27 Iowa L 69-75 30%    
  Wed, Mar 4 25 Ohio St. L 74-80 29%    
  Sun, Mar 8 120 @Rutgers L 73-74 47%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 2.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.7 1.3 0.1 4.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.9 12th
13th 0.2 2.6 4.2 1.3 0.0 8.2 13th
14th 0.2 2.0 5.6 2.8 0.2 10.8 14th
15th 0.1 1.6 5.5 4.4 0.6 12.3 15th
16th 0.1 1.4 5.8 5.9 1.6 0.0 14.8 16th
17th 0.2 1.7 5.7 6.1 2.1 0.1 15.9 17th
18th 0.7 3.2 5.4 4.7 1.7 0.2 15.9 18th
Total 0.7 3.3 7.2 11.8 15.5 15.8 14.9 11.4 8.4 5.5 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.3% 93.7% 93.7% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.7%
12-8 0.6% 79.3% 79.3% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 79.3%
11-9 1.4% 61.5% 61.5% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 61.5%
10-10 2.9% 33.6% 33.6% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 2.0 33.6%
9-11 5.5% 11.7% 11.7% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 4.9 11.7%
8-12 8.4% 1.8% 1.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.2 1.8%
7-13 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 11.4 0.1%
6-14 14.9% 14.9
5-15 15.8% 15.8
4-16 15.5% 15.5
3-17 11.8% 11.8
2-18 7.2% 7.2
1-19 3.3% 3.3
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.1 96.5 3.5%