Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#50
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#68
Pace74.2#45
Improvement-6.2#353

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#45
First Shot+5.5#48
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#147
Layup/Dunks+6.0#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#311
Freethrows+3.9#17
Improvement-2.7#317

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#68
First Shot+3.9#65
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#161
Layups/Dunks+2.1#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#143
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#127
Freethrows-0.3#204
Improvement-3.5#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 15.3% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.4% 14.9% 5.2%
Average Seed 10.2 10.1 10.4
.500 or above 87.1% 93.0% 70.1%
.500 or above in Conference 7.2% 9.3% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 6.4% 27.0%
First Four6.3% 7.4% 3.1%
First Round9.6% 11.6% 3.7%
Second Round3.7% 4.5% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Minnesota (Home) - 74.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 10
Quad 23 - 45 - 13
Quad 35 - 111 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 313   Binghamton W 108-66 97%     1 - 0 +30.8 +24.1 +4.8
  Nov 08, 2024 261   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 103-54 95%     2 - 0 +40.8 +9.1 +25.2
  Nov 12, 2024 336   St. Francis (PA) W 92-62 98%     3 - 0 +16.0 +0.6 +11.4
  Nov 15, 2024 118   Virginia Tech W 86-64 77%     4 - 0 +24.6 +9.3 +14.3
  Nov 20, 2024 149   Purdue Fort Wayne W 102-89 86%     5 - 0 +11.4 +22.5 -11.5
  Nov 25, 2024 191   Fordham W 85-66 86%     6 - 0 +17.6 +9.9 +7.3
  Nov 26, 2024 32   Clemson L 67-75 36%     6 - 1 +5.9 +1.1 +4.7
  Dec 01, 2024 342   Buffalo W 87-64 98%     7 - 1 +8.7 +8.0 +0.8
  Dec 05, 2024 9   Purdue W 81-70 31%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +26.5 +12.3 +13.9
  Dec 10, 2024 63   @ Rutgers L 76-80 45%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +7.4 +5.4 +2.1
  Dec 14, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 99-51 99%     9 - 2 +27.8 +11.4 +11.9
  Dec 21, 2024 195   @ Drexel W 75-64 81%     10 - 2 +11.9 +11.6 +1.3
  Dec 29, 2024 273   Penn W 86-66 95%     11 - 2 +11.2 +3.8 +6.7
  Jan 02, 2025 56   Northwestern W 84-80 61%     12 - 2 2 - 1 +11.4 +12.7 -1.4
  Jan 05, 2025 53   Indiana L 71-77 60%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +1.6 +1.8 -0.2
  Jan 08, 2025 13   @ Illinois L 52-91 19%     12 - 4 2 - 3 -19.3 -17.5 +2.9
  Jan 12, 2025 45   Oregon L 81-82 54%     12 - 5 2 - 4 +8.1 +10.8 -2.7
  Jan 15, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 85-90 19%     12 - 6 2 - 5 +14.4 +19.5 -4.9
  Jan 20, 2025 63   Rutgers W 80-72 64%     13 - 6 3 - 5 +14.4 +11.0 +3.5
  Jan 24, 2025 60   @ Iowa L 75-76 44%     13 - 7 3 - 6 +10.9 +6.6 +4.2
  Jan 27, 2025 18   @ Michigan L 72-76 21%     13 - 8 3 - 7 +14.6 +9.0 +5.6
  Jan 30, 2025 25   Ohio St. L 64-83 42%     13 - 9 3 - 8 -6.8 -0.2 -7.3
  Feb 04, 2025 92   Minnesota W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 08, 2025 29   @ UCLA L 69-76 25%    
  Feb 11, 2025 54   @ USC L 77-79 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 89   Washington W 80-74 75%    
  Feb 19, 2025 48   Nebraska W 77-75 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 92   @ Minnesota W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 53   @ Indiana L 77-79 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 16   Maryland L 76-80 37%    
  Mar 08, 2025 17   @ Wisconsin L 74-83 19%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.4 1.9 0.4 2.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.8 2.1 0.1 5.1 9th
10th 1.6 5.4 0.8 7.9 10th
11th 0.3 5.9 3.6 0.1 9.8 11th
12th 2.2 8.2 1.1 11.5 12th
13th 0.3 7.3 4.9 0.1 12.5 13th
14th 0.0 2.5 9.7 1.1 0.0 13.3 14th
15th 0.4 7.8 4.9 0.1 13.2 15th
16th 2.7 6.5 1.0 10.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.7 4.7 2.1 0.0 7.6 17th
18th 0.4 2.0 1.9 0.1 4.4 18th
Total 0.5 2.7 9.7 19.3 25.3 21.9 13.4 5.7 1.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 1.4% 87.1% 2.1% 85.0% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 86.9%
10-10 5.7% 69.6% 1.6% 68.0% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 69.1%
9-11 13.4% 36.2% 0.7% 35.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.9 0.1 8.5 35.7%
8-12 21.9% 10.6% 0.4% 10.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 0.2 19.6 10.3%
7-13 25.3% 0.9% 0.9% 11.2 0.2 0.1 25.1 0.9%
6-14 19.3% 19.3
5-15 9.7% 9.7
4-16 2.7% 2.7
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.7% 0.3% 12.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.7 5.9 0.3 87.3 12.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%