Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.6#30
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#51
Pace76.5#28
Improvement-3.1#334

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#38
First Shot+6.1#39
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#159
Layup/Dunks+6.0#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#253
Freethrows+2.7#47
Improvement-2.6#339

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#31
First Shot+5.9#29
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#151
Layups/Dunks+3.4#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#112
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#136
Freethrows+0.2#177
Improvement-0.5#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 1.6% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 7.8% 8.9% 3.2%
Top 6 Seed 20.4% 22.6% 11.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.4% 69.4% 53.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.6% 67.6% 52.2%
Average Seed 7.6 7.5 8.2
.500 or above 97.6% 98.6% 93.3%
.500 or above in Conference 72.6% 74.4% 65.0%
Conference Champion 5.7% 6.2% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.7% 1.4%
First Four6.2% 6.0% 7.1%
First Round63.5% 66.6% 50.4%
Second Round38.2% 40.5% 28.6%
Sweet Sixteen14.8% 16.0% 9.6%
Elite Eight5.9% 6.5% 3.6%
Final Four2.3% 2.5% 1.5%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 80.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 25 - 310 - 11
Quad 35 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 314   Binghamton W 108-66 98%     1 - 0 +30.4 +25.3 +3.3
  Nov 08, 2024 249   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 103-54 96%     2 - 0 +41.1 +10.1 +24.5
  Nov 12, 2024 336   St. Francis (PA) W 92-62 98%     3 - 0 +15.9 +0.2 +11.7
  Nov 15, 2024 126   Virginia Tech W 86-64 83%     4 - 0 +24.3 +11.1 +12.2
  Nov 20, 2024 144   Purdue Fort Wayne W 102-89 91%     5 - 0 +10.5 +21.6 -11.4
  Nov 25, 2024 169   Fordham W 85-66 89%     6 - 0 +18.4 +11.4 +6.6
  Nov 26, 2024 35   Clemson L 67-75 51%     6 - 1 +4.3 +0.9 +3.3
  Dec 01, 2024 330   Buffalo W 87-64 98%     7 - 1 +10.1 +7.8 +2.3
  Dec 05, 2024 20   Purdue W 81-70 55%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +22.3 +9.3 +12.8
  Dec 10, 2024 64   @ Rutgers L 76-80 53%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +7.8 +5.9 +2.1
  Dec 14, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 99-51 99%     9 - 2 +26.8 +9.9 +12.4
  Dec 21, 2024 146   @ Drexel W 76-67 81%    
  Dec 29, 2024 274   Penn W 86-64 98%    
  Jan 02, 2025 61   Northwestern W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 05, 2025 45   Indiana W 82-77 68%    
  Jan 08, 2025 16   @ Illinois L 77-83 30%    
  Jan 12, 2025 23   Oregon W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 15, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 72-78 30%    
  Jan 20, 2025 64   Rutgers W 82-75 73%    
  Jan 24, 2025 42   @ Iowa L 84-85 46%    
  Jan 27, 2025 21   @ Michigan L 76-81 33%    
  Jan 30, 2025 38   Ohio St. W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 04, 2025 114   Minnesota W 75-63 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 14   @ UCLA L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 11, 2025 76   @ USC W 78-76 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 82   Washington W 81-72 79%    
  Feb 19, 2025 53   Nebraska W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 114   @ Minnesota W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 26, 2025 45   @ Indiana L 79-80 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 19   Maryland W 78-77 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 36   @ Wisconsin L 77-80 41%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 4.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 3.2 4.3 0.7 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.0 2.0 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.2 3.4 3.8 0.4 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 4.5 1.2 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.1 3.0 0.2 6.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 3.8 0.9 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.5 1.9 0.1 4.9 12th
13th 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 4.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.0 0.1 3.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.2 2.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.7 7.6 11.0 13.3 14.7 14.5 12.2 8.7 5.4 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 99.2% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 91.8% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 66.9% 1.7    0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 35.0% 1.9    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 2.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.0% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 2.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.6% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 3.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.4% 99.9% 15.2% 84.7% 4.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 8.7% 99.3% 12.4% 86.9% 5.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
13-7 12.2% 96.6% 8.7% 87.9% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.1 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.4 96.3%
12-8 14.5% 91.2% 5.4% 85.8% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 3.5 3.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 1.3 90.7%
11-9 14.7% 78.3% 2.9% 75.5% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.2 3.1 1.4 0.0 3.2 77.7%
10-10 13.3% 60.5% 1.5% 59.0% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.8 2.2 0.1 5.3 59.9%
9-11 11.0% 29.6% 0.7% 28.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 0.2 7.7 29.1%
8-12 7.6% 9.7% 0.7% 8.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 6.8 9.0%
7-13 4.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.8%
6-14 2.5% 2.5
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 66.4% 5.3% 61.1% 7.6 0.4 1.0 2.5 4.0 5.6 7.0 9.1 10.5 10.3 9.4 6.3 0.4 33.6 64.6%