Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#126
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#115
Pace70.4#155
Improvement-4.1#354

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#98
First Shot+2.2#110
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#114
Layup/Dunks+4.7#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#295
Freethrows+0.0#187
Improvement-3.6#358

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#198
First Shot-1.4#217
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#157
Layups/Dunks-0.6#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#340
Freethrows+3.2#25
Improvement-0.6#225
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 10.3 10.3 n/a
.500 or above 8.4% 8.8% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 44.2% 43.6% 54.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 95.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 12
Quad 21 - 52 - 17
Quad 32 - 24 - 18
Quad 49 - 013 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 277 Fairfield W 76-68 86%     1 - 0 -1.3 -1.0 -0.2
  Sat, Nov 8 340 @New Haven W 87-43 84%     2 - 0 +35.6 +23.9 +17.2
  Tue, Nov 11 203 Navy W 80-71 78%     3 - 0 +3.3 +7.5 -4.0
  Sat, Nov 15 233 La Salle W 83-69 74%     4 - 0 +9.6 +17.7 -6.7
  Wed, Nov 19 192 Harvard W 84-80 76%     5 - 0 -1.1 +17.3 -17.9
  Sat, Nov 22 78 Providence L 65-77 32%     5 - 1 -4.9 -7.8 +3.0
  Tue, Nov 25 288 Boston University W 96-87 87%     6 - 1 -0.7 +23.9 -23.6
  Sat, Nov 29 250 Sacred Heart W 90-59 84%     7 - 1 +22.9 +3.5 +16.4
  Tue, Dec 2 225 Campbell W 87-76 81%     8 - 1 +4.0 +6.8 -3.2
  Tue, Dec 9 29 @Indiana L 72-113 8%     8 - 2 0 - 1 -23.4 +5.0 -26.6
  Sat, Dec 13 16 Michigan St. L 72-76 13%     8 - 3 0 - 2 +10.4 +9.3 +1.1
  Sun, Dec 21 84 Pittsburgh L 46-80 34%     8 - 4 -27.4 -21.0 -9.0
  Mon, Dec 29 348 NC Central W 82-64 95%    
  Sat, Jan 3 10 Illinois L 70-88 5%    
  Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 70-92 2%    
  Sat, Jan 10 5 @Purdue L 65-87 2%    
  Wed, Jan 14 30 UCLA L 71-80 20%    
  Sun, Jan 18 94 @Maryland L 74-81 27%    
  Thu, Jan 22 46 Wisconsin L 76-82 30%    
  Mon, Jan 26 31 @Ohio St. L 71-86 8%    
  Thu, Jan 29 57 @Northwestern L 71-81 18%    
  Sun, Feb 1 96 Minnesota L 70-71 48%    
  Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 67-95 1%    
  Sun, Feb 8 38 USC L 77-84 25%    
  Wed, Feb 11 48 @Washington L 70-82 14%    
  Sat, Feb 14 56 @Oregon L 73-83 18%    
  Wed, Feb 18 147 Rutgers W 76-72 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 25 @Nebraska L 69-85 7%    
  Sat, Feb 28 18 Iowa L 67-78 16%    
  Wed, Mar 4 31 Ohio St. L 74-83 21%    
  Sun, Mar 8 147 @Rutgers L 73-75 44%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.8 13th
14th 0.2 1.9 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.9 14th
15th 0.1 2.3 5.5 2.9 0.3 11.1 15th
16th 0.2 2.9 8.1 5.2 0.8 0.0 17.3 16th
17th 0.5 5.2 11.6 7.7 1.4 0.1 26.4 17th
18th 2.6 8.6 11.1 6.1 1.2 0.1 29.6 18th
Total 2.6 9.1 16.5 20.7 19.5 14.3 9.0 5.0 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 23.8% 23.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.8%
10-10 0.3% 15.4% 15.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 15.4%
9-11 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.8%
8-12 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 2.3 0.1%
7-13 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 4.9 0.1%
6-14 9.0% 9.0
5-15 14.3% 14.3
4-16 19.5% 19.5
3-17 20.7% 20.7
2-18 16.5% 16.5
1-19 9.1% 9.1
0-20 2.6% 2.6
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%