New Haven
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.6 #331
Expected Predictive Rating -7.6 #288
Pace 60.9 #357
Improvement +0.6 #143

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #349 D+ F F F D+
Defense #258 D C C B D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #273 1.23 #104 -0.7 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #126 0.63 #331 -0.5 #199
Three Pointers 42% #163 0.90 #319 -2.0 #256
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #269 -3.2 #268
Freethrows 12.7 #353 72% #202 9.2 #358
Second Chance 23.9% #337 0.94 #308 0.23 #344
Turnovers 20.2% #350
Total Offense -8.0 #349

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #133 1.24 #278 -2.7 #274
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #322 0.75 #174 +1.8 #56
Three Pointers 44% #96 1.06 #235 -2.4 #287
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #281 -3.3 #283
Freethrows 14.4 #47 76% #307 10.9 #81
Second Chance 29.9% #149 1.10 #258 0.33 #209
Turnovers 16.4% #185
Total Defense -2.7 #258

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #258 1.6% #312
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.2% #258 4.7% #269
Possession Length 20.5 #363 16.9 #110
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #292 0.17 #187
Improvement +1.5 #99 -0.9 #248

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 19.2% 28.2% 9.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 94.6% 80.0%
Conference Champion 5.4% 8.1% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercyhurst (Home) - 52.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 412 - 912 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 7 @Connecticut L 55 - 79 0% -12  0 - 1 -1 -2 A F A- +0 B C- B
 Fri, Nov 7 180 Columbia L 53 - 71 27% -16  0 - 2 -22 -19 F F F -4 F A+ A
 Sat, Nov 8 116 Penn St. L 43 - 87 16% -18  0 - 3 -44 -27 F F F -23 C- F F
 Mon, Nov 10 309 @Umass Lowell W 73 - 67 31% -1  1 - 3 +1 -1 C D+ F +2 A+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 355 Delaware St. W 65 - 52 73% +7  2 - 3 -4 -7 C- F F +4 B+ C+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 56 @Seton Hall L 45 - 68 2% -14  2 - 4 -10 -11 D- D- C -2 F A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 134 @Boston College L 63 - 67 9% +3  2 - 5 +1 +4 B- C- C- -4 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 336 @NJIT L 64 - 70 41% -4  2 - 6 -14 -7 F C A- -7 F A+ D+
 Mon, Dec 22 193 @Fordham L 47 - 65 14% -5  2 - 7 -17 -19 D- F F -0 D F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 21 @Vanderbilt L 53 - 96 1% -24  2 - 8 -23 -11 D- F C -13 F D C
 Fri, Jan 2 339 @Stonehill W 70 - 55 41% +5  3 - 8 1 - 0 +7 +2 B+ D D+ +6 A+ D F
 Sun, Jan 4 277 @Central Connecticut St. L 61 - 72 25% -10  3 - 9 1 - 1 -15 -3 F A+ F -14 F D- C
 Thu, Jan 8 278 @Le Moyne L 47 - 73 25% -16  3 - 10 1 - 2 -30 -21 F F F -12 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 348 Fairleigh Dickinson W 65 - 55 68% +10  4 - 10 2 - 2 -5 -7 C+ F D +3 A+ A F
 Sat, Jan 17 326 Wagner W 80 - 74 60% +8  5 - 10 3 - 2 -7 +12 A+ F D+ -18 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 357 @Chicago St. W 62 - 56 52% -3  6 - 10 4 - 2 -5 -4 C- C- F -0 F A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 23 306 Mercyhurst W 62 - 61 52%
 Sun, Jan 25 358 St. Francis (PA) W 71 - 64 74%
 Thu, Jan 29 306 @Mercyhurst L 59 - 64 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 358 @St. Francis (PA) W 68 - 67 54%
 Thu, Feb 5 222 @LIU Brooklyn L 62 - 72 17%
 Sat, Feb 7 357 Chicago St. W 70 - 63 73%
 Thu, Feb 12 277 Central Connecticut St. L 66 - 67 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 222 LIU Brooklyn L 65 - 69 35%
 Thu, Feb 19 339 Stonehill W 64 - 60 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 348 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 65 - 66 45%
 Thu, Feb 26 326 @Wagner L 65 - 68 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 278 Le Moyne L 68 - 69 47%
Totals 12 - 16 10 - 8 -11 -8 D+ F F -3 D C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 5.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.6 8.2 4.0 0.7 18.0 3rd
4th 0.6 5.6 11.0 4.8 0.6 0.0 22.6 4th
5th 0.3 4.3 9.1 3.5 0.2 17.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 6.6 2.9 0.2 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.3 0.2 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 1.6 0.2 3.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.5 7.9 14.0 18.5 19.7 16.4 11.2 5.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 98.9% 0.5    0.4 0.1
14-2 77.5% 1.5    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-3 36.4% 2.0    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-4 10.5% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-5 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 2.2 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 0.1
15-1 0.5% 0.5
14-2 2.0% 2.0
13-3 5.5% 5.5
12-4 11.2% 11.2
11-5 16.4% 16.4
10-6 19.7% 19.7
9-7 18.5% 18.5
8-8 14.0% 14.0
7-9 7.9% 7.9
6-10 3.5% 3.5
5-11 0.8% 0.8
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%