Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.6#328
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#310
Pace62.6#343
Improvement-2.7#333

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#323
First Shot-6.5#340
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#134
Layup/Dunks-1.9#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#318
Freethrows-5.6#360
Improvement+1.5#66

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#310
First Shot-2.2#241
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#294
Layups/Dunks-1.6#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#180
Freethrows-2.3#308
Improvement-4.2#364
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 18.4% 41.0% 16.3%
.500 or above in Conference 60.6% 71.9% 59.6%
Conference Champion 5.8% 10.0% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 4.3% 7.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Away) - 8.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 410 - 911 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 60 @Northwestern L 47-70 3%     0 - 1 -10.8 -19.8 +8.2
  Thu, Nov 6 259 @Loyola Chicago W 73-65 25%     1 - 1 +5.5 +0.7 +5.0
  Wed, Nov 12 353 @Canisius L 55-58 52%     1 - 2 -13.0 -13.8 +0.4
  Sat, Nov 15 359 Morgan St. W 86-72 77%     2 - 2 -3.2 +7.4 -10.1
  Thu, Nov 20 127 @Miami (OH) L 71-76 9%     2 - 3 +0.6 +5.1 -4.9
  Sun, Nov 23 170 @Marshall L 60-69 14%     2 - 4 -7.0 -4.9 -3.1
  Sun, Nov 30 65 @West Virginia L 38-70 4%     2 - 5 -20.4 -21.0 -4.4
  Fri, Dec 5 331 @Lafayette L 71-79 40%     2 - 6 -14.9 +2.9 -18.5
  Sat, Dec 13 137 @Davidson L 60-74 9%    
  Wed, Dec 17 61 @Syracuse L 57-79 2%    
  Sat, Dec 20 349 Binghamton W 69-64 69%    
  Fri, Jan 2 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-67 77%    
  Sun, Jan 4 321 Le Moyne W 75-72 59%    
  Thu, Jan 8 230 @LIU Brooklyn L 65-74 22%    
  Sat, Jan 10 297 @Wagner L 65-70 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 338 Stonehill W 68-63 66%    
  Mon, Jan 19 244 Central Connecticut St. L 64-66 43%    
  Fri, Jan 23 346 @New Haven L 64-65 45%    
  Sun, Jan 25 350 Chicago St. W 73-68 68%    
  Thu, Jan 29 346 New Haven W 67-62 66%    
  Sat, Jan 31 350 @Chicago St. L 70-71 47%    
  Thu, Feb 5 356 St. Francis (PA) W 73-66 74%    
  Sat, Feb 7 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 72-70 58%    
  Thu, Feb 19 297 Wagner W 68-67 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 230 LIU Brooklyn L 68-71 41%    
  Thu, Feb 26 244 @Central Connecticut St. L 61-69 24%    
  Sat, Feb 28 338 @Stonehill L 65-66 44%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.0 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.5 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 6.5 4.2 0.7 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 6.1 4.7 0.8 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.3 5.3 0.9 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.2 5.4 1.0 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.5 1.2 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.9 1.0 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.5 7.1 11.1 13.6 14.6 14.5 12.2 9.0 5.7 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 95.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-2 86.0% 1.0    0.8 0.2
13-3 60.1% 1.9    1.2 0.6 0.1
12-4 31.7% 1.8    0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0
11-5 7.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.3% 0.3
14-2 1.2% 1.2
13-3 3.1% 3.1
12-4 5.7% 5.7
11-5 9.0% 9.0
10-6 12.2% 12.2
9-7 14.5% 14.5
8-8 14.6% 14.6
7-9 13.6% 13.6
6-10 11.1% 11.1
5-11 7.1% 7.1
4-12 4.5% 4.5
3-13 2.1% 2.1
2-14 0.8% 0.8
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%