Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.3 #306
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 #319
Pace 62.2 #344
Improvement +0.4 #166

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #331 D- D+ C F F
Defense #226 C D+ B- D+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #298 1.10 #247 -3.3 #292
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #10 0.85 #61 +6.5 #3
Three Pointers 32% #338 0.80 #357 -8.0 #358
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #319 -4.9 #320
Freethrows 11.5 #364 73% #171 8.4 #364
Second Chance 26.2% #298 1.08 #127 0.28 #255
Turnovers 16.3% #161
Total Offense -6.6 #331

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #4 1.13 #140 -4.8 #328
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #292 0.61 #15 +2.6 #16
Three Pointers 35% #324 1.00 #170 +3.1 #64
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #148 +1.0 #148
Freethrows 18.3 #232 75% #276 13.7 #265
Second Chance 33.8% #306 1.06 #204 0.36 #273
Turnovers 17.7% #94
Total Defense -1.7 #226

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.9% #353 2.4% #354
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.9% #271 -4.2% #99
Possession Length 21.0 #365 15.4 #5
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #358 0.21 #302
Improvement -0.1 #184 +0.5 #155

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 24.1% 36.8% 12.6%
.500 or above in Conference 82.2% 92.3% 72.9%
Conference Champion 2.0% 3.5% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.5% 2.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Haven (Away) - 47.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 412 - 912 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 60 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 4% -12  0 - 1 -11 -20 F F C+ +8 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 268 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 31% +7  1 - 1 +5 +0 C+ C F +5 B+ A+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 344 @Canisius L 55 - 58 52% -3  1 - 2 -12 -12 F F F +0 F A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 360 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 84% +13  2 - 2 -5 +6 D A+ D+ -10 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 20 89 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 6% -5  2 - 3 +4 +6 B C+ D+ -1 A+ C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 163 @Marshall L 60 - 69 15% -5  2 - 4 -6 -6 F C- C -2 D- A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 30 52 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 3% -18  2 - 5 -18 -21 F D F -2 B F B-
 Fri, Dec 5 314 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 42% -2  2 - 6 -14 +3 F A+ A+ -18 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 137 @Davidson L 47 - 80 12% -17  2 - 7 -28 -14 F F C -21 F D- D+
 Wed, Dec 17 67 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 5% -13  2 - 8 -3 -6 C C F +3 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 362 Binghamton W 82 - 61 84% +19  3 - 8 +2 +1 C- D- B+ +1 C A+ B+
 Fri, Jan 2 348 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 75% +0  3 - 9 0 - 1 -22 -7 F C F -16 F C+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 278 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 55% +8  4 - 9 1 - 1 +4 +3 D+ A B- +2 A+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 222 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 23% -4  4 - 10 1 - 2 -3 -5 F C C+ +2 B+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 326 @Wagner W 70 - 69 46% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -6 -2 C F A+ -4 C- C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 339 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 72% +2  5 - 11 2 - 3 -19 -19 F F D -1 B- D+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 277 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 55% +14  6 - 11 3 - 3 +8 +11 A+ C- C +0 A+ F C+
 Fri, Jan 23 331 @New Haven L 61 - 62 48%
 Sun, Jan 25 357 Chicago St. W 72 - 63 80%
 Thu, Jan 29 331 New Haven W 64 - 59 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 357 @Chicago St. W 69 - 66 61%
 Thu, Feb 5 358 St. Francis (PA) W 73 - 64 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 348 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 67 - 66 53%
 Thu, Feb 12 278 @Le Moyne L 67 - 72 33%
 Thu, Feb 19 326 Wagner W 70 - 65 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 222 LIU Brooklyn L 67 - 69 44%
 Thu, Feb 26 277 @Central Connecticut St. L 65 - 70 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 339 @Stonehill W 63 - 62 51%
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 8 -8 -7 D- D+ C -2 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.4 1.3 0.1 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.6 6.8 2.6 0.2 14.8 3rd
4th 0.6 5.7 10.7 4.3 0.4 21.7 4th
5th 0.4 5.0 10.6 4.4 0.3 20.7 5th
6th 0.2 3.2 8.1 3.9 0.3 15.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 5.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.0 0.2 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.9 10.9 16.8 21.0 20.3 14.1 7.2 2.5 0.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 74.0% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
13-3 37.7% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-4 9.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.4% 0.4
13-3 2.5% 2.5
12-4 7.2% 7.2
11-5 14.1% 14.1
10-6 20.3% 20.3
9-7 21.0% 21.0
8-8 16.8% 16.8
7-9 10.9% 10.9
6-10 4.9% 4.9
5-11 1.7% 1.7
4-12 0.4% 0.4
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4%