Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -7.5 291
Results Rating -9.1 312
Consistency 0.14 130
Pace 62.6 330
Improvement +0.4 174

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 301 D C- B- F F
Defense D+ 256 C- D+ C+ D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 324 D 53% 299 -4.9 338
2 Pt. Jumpers 59% 17 B+ 44% 40 +7.4 2
Three Pointers 33% 338 F 28% 361 -7.2 353
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.1 358 D+ -2.6 269
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 326
Second Chance D+ 26.3% 294 C+ 1.07 117 C- 0.28 248
Opponents' Steals B- 8.7% 104
Other Turnovers C+ 6.8% 124
Turnovers B- 15.5% 103
Freethrows F 0.22 364 C+ 73% 175 F 0.16 360
Total Offense D+ -4.9 301

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B- 53% 94 B 8.2% 39
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 44 C+ 4.5% 153
Three Pointers C+ 85% 168 C- 1.1% 253
Total C- 54% 210 B- 4.6% 67


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 18 C 58% 188 +4.2 318
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 253 B 35% 74 -1.5 65
Three Pointers 36% 311 C- 35% 225 -1.9 100
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 325 C +0.0 179
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 205
Second Chance D+ 33.1% 295 C 1.05 211 D+ 0.35 276
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.1% 140
Other Turnovers C+ 7.6% 126
Turnovers C+ 17.7% 125
Freethrows F+ 0.38 348 C+ 72% 144 D- 0.27 342
Total Defense D+ -2.6 256

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 261 C 11.0% 170
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 43% 358 B+ 8.6% 34
Three Pointers C 83% 158 B+ 1.8% 39
Total D+ 59% 269 B 7.2% 59

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.2 364 16.0 12
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 320 0.19 253
Consistency 0.14 268 0.11 100
Improvement +2.9 60 -2.5 307

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 299 290 270
Results Rating Rank 327 312 256
Conference Record 10 - 6 10 - 6 10 - 6
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 22% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 15% 22% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four14% 21% 0%
First Round7% 11% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 414 - 1014 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 69 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 5% -12  0% 0 - 1 D -11 F -21 F F B A +9 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 6 279 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 35% +7  78% 1 - 1 C+ +4 C- -1 C+ C F B+ +5 B+ A- B-
 Wed, Nov 12 338 @Canisius L 55 - 58 57% -3  16% 1 - 2 D- -12 F -15 F F+ D- B- +2 F+ A- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 348 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 80% +13  93% 2 - 2 C- -2 B- +4 C- A+ D D -6 A- F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 90 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 7% -5  4% 2 - 3 C+ +4 B- +4 B C+ C- C -0 B+ C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 189 @Marshall L 60 - 69 21% -5  4% 2 - 4 D+ -8 F -12 F D C+ B- +3 D A C
 Sun, Nov 30 55 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 4% -18  0% 2 - 5 F -19 F -22 F C- F C- -2 B- F+ C+
 Fri, Dec 5 324 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 50% -2  19% 2 - 6 F+ -16 C- -1 F A+ A F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 111 @Davidson L 47 - 80 10% -17  0% 2 - 7 F -26 F -15 D F C+ F -17 F D+ D+
 Wed, Dec 17 76 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 6% -13  0% 2 - 8 C- -3 F -10 D C D A- +7 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 357 Binghamton W 82 - 61 86% +19  97% 3 - 8 C+ +2 D+ -3 D+ D+ B- B +5 B- A+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 336 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 76% +0  45% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F -22 F+ -10 F C- F+ F -13 F B A
 Sun, Jan 4 298 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 64% +8  86% 4 - 9 1 - 1 C+ +3 C +2 D+ A C B- +3 A+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 218 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 24% -4  29% 4 - 10 1 - 2 C- -2 D- -6 D- C+ B- B +4 B+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 317 @Wagner W 70 - 69 47% -1  30% 5 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -3 C+ F A+ C- -3 D+ D C-
 Sat, Jan 17 335 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 76% +2  65% 5 - 11 2 - 3 F -20 F -20 F F C- C +0 C D+ B-
 Mon, Jan 19 306 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 65% +14  96% 6 - 11 3 - 3 B- +6 B+ +7 A+ C- C C+ +1 A+ F C-
 Fri, Jan 23 325 @New Haven W 61 - 57 50% -0  37% 7 - 11 4 - 3 C- -4 D+ -3 C F+ C+ C+ +0 D- D+ A+
 Sun, Jan 25 351 Chicago St. W 61 - 59 81% +3  85% 8 - 11 5 - 3 F+ -15 F+ -9 C- F D+ D -5 C+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 325 New Haven W 70 - 51 72% +13  88% 9 - 11 6 - 3 B- +5 C +1 F A+ A+ A- +7 A C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 351 @Chicago St. L 74 - 78 62% -2  27% 9 - 12 6 - 4 F+ -15 D+ -2 C+ F A F -13 F F C-
 Thu, Feb 5 355 St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 89 OT 84% +3  70% 10 - 12 7 - 4 D -9 C+ +3 F A+ C+ F -13 F C+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 336 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 52 - 55 56% -0  46% 10 - 13 7 - 5 D- -12 F -13 F D A- C +0 D+ C A
 Thu, Feb 12 298 @Le Moyne L 57 - 58 41% -1  37% 10 - 14 7 - 6 D+ -6 F -19 F F A+ A+ +13 B- A A+
 Sat, Feb 14 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 79 67% +9  89% 11 - 14 8 - 6 C+ +3 A +13 B+ A- A F -10 F B+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 317 Wagner L 80 - 83 OT 69% -4  19% 11 - 15 8 - 7 F+ -16 D- -6 D D B- F+ -9 C- D- B
 Sat, Feb 21 218 LIU Brooklyn W 91 - 83 45% +2  51% 12 - 15 9 - 7 C+ +2 A+ +15 A- B A+ F -13 F A- D+
 Thu, Feb 26 306 @Central Connecticut St. L 78 - 80 43% -0  35% 12 - 16 9 - 8 D+ -8 C +1 C+ D B F+ -9 D- F F+
 Sat, Feb 28 335 @Stonehill W 75 - 72 OT 55% -4  16% 13 - 16 10 - 8 D+ -6 D -5 F F+ A C -1 B D- F
 Wed, Mar 4 336 Fairleigh Dickinson W 71 - 63 76%
Totals 14 - 16 10 - 8 -7 D+ -5 A D+ F D+ -3 F C+ F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D B+ F D+ 33% 59% 33% F D D+ C+ C- B- F C+ F D+ C B C- C 46% 18% 36% D C- D+ C D+ C+ F+ C+ D-
1.02 53% 44% 28% -3 -2 0.93 26% 1.1 .28 16% .22 73% .16 1.12 58% 35% 35% 0 +1 1.04 33% 1.0 .35 18% .38 72% .16
Nov
3		 Northwestern F F A+ F F 30% 38% 32% F F F F F B D- B+ D+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ 48% 17% 35% F+ A+ F F F A F B F
0.70 31% 50% 6% -17 -3 0.62 21% 0.6 .12 16% .23 77% .18 1.04 41% 38% 19% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.5 .61 18% .68 71% .49
Nov
6		 Loyola Chicago C- D A+ C C+ 40% 22% 38% C C+ C+ D+ C F A C- A B+ C+ A+ B+ A- 45% 6% 49% D- B+ B A+ A- B- F F+ F
1.08 50% 60% 35% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.0 .31 18% .38 76% .29 0.96 55% 0% 29% -7 +2 0.92 27% 0.7 .19 21% .43 74% .32
Nov
12		 Canisius F F A+ F D- 17% 33% 50% F F F C- F+ D- F B- F B- D+ F A+ F+ 47% 21% 32% F+ F+ A- B+ A- B- F A+ F
0.89 50% 63% 21% -3 -3 0.90 21% 1.0 .21 18% .16 75% .12 0.94 56% 63% 25% 0 +1 1.03 19% 0.8 .15 21% .54 58% .31
Nov
15		 Morgan St. B- B+ F A B- 32% 28% 40% F C- B A+ A+ D A F C D D A+ A+ A- 38% 43% 20% A A- F F+ F A+ F F F
1.27 69% 29% 40% +4 -1 1.08 41% 1.7 .69 16% .49 61% .30 1.06 60% 18% 25% -11 -3 0.75 51% 1.0 .51 24% .74 84% .62
Nov
20		 Miami (OH) B- A- A+ C B+ 28% 28% 45% D- B C+ C C+ C- D+ D- D C F A+ A B+ 42% 18% 40% C- B+ D B+ C B- F F F
1.08 69% 54% 33% +7 -2 1.13 31% 0.9 .28 18% .24 69% .17 1.16 74% 25% 28% +1 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 17% .57 84% .48
Nov
23		 Marshall F D+ C- F F 40% 34% 26% D F D+ D- D C+ D- F F B- B+ A+ F D 25% 18% 57% D+ D C A+ A C D- F F
0.95 55% 35% 15% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.8 .27 16% .30 56% .17 1.09 55% 13% 48% +6 -1 1.14 30% 0.8 .24 17% .31 81% .25
Nov
30		 West Virginia F F F+ C F 35% 37% 28% F F F A+ C- F F F F C- C+ F A+ B+ 54% 10% 35% F B- F D+ F+ C+ F B- D-
0.63 33% 25% 33% -14 -2 0.70 17% 1.3 .22 25% .18 13% .02 1.15 58% 60% 24% -4 +2 1.00 40% 1.1 .46 16% .39 65% .26
Dec
5		 Lafayette C- D- C- F F 29% 43% 28% F F B+ A+ A+ A F C F F A- A F F 43% 9% 48% D- F F F F A+ D F F
1.11 53% 36% 25% -6 -4 0.83 37% 1.6 .61 9% .14 75% .10 1.24 47% 25% 57% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .40 24% .33 94% .31
Dec
13		 Davidson F A+ F F D+ 33% 38% 29% F D F C F C+ B- F F+ F F F+ F F 62% 10% 29% F F F A- D+ D+ D- C+ D
0.80 79% 19% 25% -4 -3 0.88 9% 1.0 .09 17% .33 44% .14 1.36 69% 50% 58% +18 +3 1.45 42% 0.9 .38 15% .34 65% .22
Dec
17		 Syracuse F B F+ F C- 34% 38% 28% F D C- C+ C D F D+ F A- B F A+ A 50% 18% 32% D A- F+ F F A+ B F C
0.87 61% 25% 27% -7 -3 0.83 30% 1.2 .35 21% .18 70% .12 1.07 56% 56% 25% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 22% .29 75% .22
Dec
20		 Binghamton D+ C A D+ C- 43% 31% 26% F+ D+ D- B- D+ B- F A+ F B D+ A+ B B+ 55% 20% 25% F B- A A+ A+ B F D+ F
1.18 60% 50% 33% +4 -1 1.09 26% 1.1 .29 10% .19 83% .16 0.88 59% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.93 11% 0.0 .00 23% .58 77% .45
Jan
2		 Fairleigh Dickinson F+ C+ A+ F F 35% 28% 37% D- F C- C C- F+ B+ A+ A+ F C F F F 59% 9% 32% F F D- A+ B A D- D- F+
1.05 63% 54% 18% -3 -1 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .38 90% .35 1.16 58% 75% 50% +11 +3 1.30 36% 0.6 .23 23% .33 75% .24
Jan
4		 Le Moyne C F A+ C+ C- 38% 32% 30% F+ D+ A- A- A C B- A+ A- B- B C A+ A+ 46% 16% 38% D+ A+ F D F C- B+ A+ A
1.16 44% 47% 36% -2 -1 0.96 38% 1.2 .47 14% .35 84% .29 0.94 52% 38% 16% -13 +1 0.78 35% 1.1 .38 19% .27 57% .15
Jan
8		 LIU Brooklyn D- F A+ F D 45% 35% 20% F D- D- A+ C+ B- F F F B A C- C B+ 47% 33% 20% B B+ D A+ B+ D F D+ F
0.96 45% 53% 20% -5 -1 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 17% .14 57% .08 1.00 48% 40% 33% -4 -1 0.91 37% 0.7 .26 18% .39 68% .26
Jan
10		 Wagner D+ C- B+ B C+ 51% 22% 27% C- C+ F F F A+ C- A B- C- A+ F F C+ 53% 8% 39% F D+ C+ F D C- D+ A+ B-
1.08 56% 45% 38% +2 +1 1.08 4% 0.0 .00 8% .35 81% .28 1.07 35% 50% 47% -4 +3 1.00 31% 1.3 .38 19% .30 56% .17
Jan
17		 Stonehill F C F+ F F+ 41% 43% 16% F F C F F C- F+ F F C D A+ A- C+ 53% 13% 33% F C B- F D+ B- F A+ F
0.82 57% 29% 22% -7 -3 0.82 28% 0.3 .09 13% .21 54% .12 0.89 58% 0% 27% -9 +2 0.89 25% 1.1 .28 21% .44 54% .24
Jan
19		 Central Connecticut St. B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 33% 29% F A+ C+ D- C- C F A+ F C+ B A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% F+ A+ F D F C- D D+ D
1.28 53% 59% 60% +16 -2 1.31 33% 0.9 .30 13% .07 100% .07 0.99 53% 25% 21% -13 -1 0.75 38% 1.1 .40 16% .29 80% .23
Jan
23		 New Haven D+ D+ B+ B+ C 48% 24% 28% C- C F A+ F+ C+ F A+ F C+ F F+ A+ D- 44% 23% 33% C- D- D C- D+ A+ F C+ F
1.04 55% 45% 38% +2 0 1.07 12% 1.7 .20 15% .14 100% .14 0.97 71% 44% 23% +1 0 1.05 24% 1.0 .24 24% .38 71% .27
Jan
25		 Chicago St. F+ A- C+ A B- 16% 34% 50% F C- F C F D+ F D- F D A A+ F C+ 25% 27% 48% D+ C+ C D+ C- F B C+ B
1.06 71% 40% 41% +8 -3 1.11 24% 1.1 .28 21% .15 71% .11 1.02 42% 15% 39% -7 -2 0.85 29% 1.0 .29 10% .21 73% .15
Jan
29		 New Haven C F C C- F 35% 35% 29% F F C A+ A+ A+ C A+ B- A- A- F A+ A 38% 31% 31% B+ A B- C- C+ F+ F A+ F
1.15 28% 39% 33% -11 -2 0.76 27% 1.9 .51 7% .26 87% .23 0.84 50% 54% 8% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 15% .44 61% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Chicago St. D+ A+ A- D B 37% 25% 37% F+ C+ D+ F F A F D- F F B+ B+ F F 29% 29% 42% D+ F F F+ F C- F A+ F
1.11 79% 46% 32% +8 -1 1.18 32% 0.5 .15 15% .25 71% .18 1.17 46% 31% 47% +3 -2 1.04 36% 1.1 .39 15% .53 63% .34
Feb
5		 St. Francis (PA) C+ F A+ F F 41% 22% 37% D F A+ A A+ C+ A+ A A+ F C+ D F F 44% 18% 39% F+ F D- A C+ C F C+ F+
1.27 45% 58% 25% -6 0 0.91 49% 1.4 .67 17% .47 80% .37 1.15 56% 40% 45% +6 +1 1.16 32% 0.8 .24 19% .35 68% .24
Feb
7		 Fairleigh Dickinson F C+ B F F 24% 39% 37% F F F+ C D A- F C- F C F A+ A+ D+ 38% 15% 46% D D+ F A C A D F F
0.96 64% 44% 24% -2 -3 0.91 20% 1.0 .20 11% .15 71% .10 1.01 80% 17% 22% -3 +1 0.97 39% 0.7 .29 24% .32 85% .27
Feb
12		 Le Moyne F F C- F F 23% 33% 44% F F F C+ F A+ F A F A+ F B A+ B- 51% 19% 30% D+ B- C- A+ A A+ D+ A+ B
0.83 46% 32% 20% -14 -3 0.68 19% 1.1 .21 9% .17 82% .14 0.84 71% 33% 14% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.4 .11 26% .35 56% .20
Feb
14		 St. Francis (PA) A A+ A+ B+ A 38% 22% 40% D B+ C A+ A- A D- A+ C+ F D- B+ F F 55% 15% 30% F F A D+ B+ F F A F
1.37 79% 55% 40% +15 0 1.32 33% 1.5 .50 13% .30 89% .27 1.15 65% 29% 43% +7 +2 1.19 19% 1.0 .19 15% .56 61% .34
Feb
19		 Wagner D- F B+ B+ C- 33% 33% 33% F D C- F+ D B- B F C- F+ A+ F F D 30% 36% 34% A+ C- D- C- D- B F F F
1.07 44% 44% 39% 0 -2 0.98 28% 0.9 .26 12% .41 63% .26 1.11 33% 50% 41% +1 -3 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 21% .51 80% .41
Feb
21		 LIU Brooklyn A+ F A+ C+ A+ 38% 30% 32% F A- C+ A- B A+ C+ A+ B+ F F F C F 40% 29% 31% B F A- B A- D+ F+ F F
1.30 45% 81% 35% +9 -1 1.17 35% 1.2 .42 11% .34 81% .28 1.19 84% 50% 33% +13 -1 1.27 28% 0.9 .24 19% .35 80% .28
Feb
26		 Central Connecticut St. C C+ A+ F B 44% 29% 27% F C+ F B+ D B D B+ C- F+ D D+ F D- 43% 36% 21% C- D- B F F F+ F A- F
1.15 58% 63% 27% +4 -1 1.09 23% 1.1 .26 10% .23 86% .20 1.18 65% 41% 40% +6 -2 1.11 22% 2.0 .44 13% .47 71% .34
Feb
28		 Stonehill D F C- C- D- 27% 53% 20% F F C- F F+ A A- A- A C A+ A+ D B+ 44% 19% 37% D+ B C+ F D- F F A F
0.98 44% 34% 33% -6 -5 0.80 27% 0.8 .20 8% .35 76% .27 0.94 38% 20% 35% -12 +1 0.80 26% 1.3 .33 16% .43 61% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 100.0% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 0.0 14.8 85.2
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 16.0 85.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.8% 100.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 23.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 30.0%
Lose Out 32.3%