IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Mercyhurst
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-14.1	#358
Expected Predictive Rating	-9.0	#315

Pace	62.7	#333
Improvement	-0.4	#213

Offense
Total Offense	-7.9	#356

First Shot	-4.5	#306
After Offensive Rebound	-3.5	#341

Layup/Dunks	-2.4	#276
2 Pt Jumpshots	+1.6	#92
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.9	#232
Freethrows	-1.7	#279

Improvement	+0.6	#129

Defense
Total Defense	-6.1	#348

First Shot	-2.0	#237
After Offensive Rebounds	-4.2	#363

Layups/Dunks	-3.6	#308
2 Pt Jumpshots	+2.5	#16
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.3	#241
Freethrows	+0.4	#159

Improvement	-1.0	#264

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.2%	5.8%	2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	2.1%	10.0%	2.1%
.500 or above in Conference	21.9%	36.3%	21.9%
Conference Champion	1.3%	3.2%	1.3%
Last Place in Conference	34.2%	23.2%	34.2%

First Four	2.2%	5.8%	2.2%
First Round	0.6%	3.2%	0.6%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 0.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	0 - 3	0 - 7
Quad 4	9 - 13	9 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	136	@ George Washington	L	59-76	5%	0 - 1			-12.6	-8.1	-5.8
Nov 06, 2024	348	@ Morgan St.	W	78-73	32%	1 - 1			-4.2	-0.7	-3.5
Nov 13, 2024	350	Canisius	W	62-52	55%	2 - 1			-5.3	-11.8	+7.8
Nov 16, 2024	177	@ Columbia	L	63-77	7%	2 - 2			-11.9	-4.6	-8.8
Nov 24, 2024	271	@ Air Force	L	48-82	15%	2 - 3			-36.8	-16.5	-27.0
Nov 27, 2024	118	@ California	L	55-81	4%	2 - 4			-20.3	-14.0	-8.2
Nov 30, 2024	335	@ Sacramento St.	W	66-60	26%	3 - 4			-1.4	+0.3	-1.0
Dec 01, 2024	59	@ San Francisco	L	59-87	2%	3 - 5			-15.7	-1.2	-16.4
Dec 07, 2024	246	Lafayette	L	73-77	27%	3 - 6			-11.8	+4.6	-16.7
Dec 15, 2024	113	@ Kent St.	L	57-82	4%	3 - 7			-18.6	-5.5	-15.0
Dec 18, 2024	314	@ Binghamton	L	60-62	21%	3 - 8			-7.6	-8.9	+1.2
Dec 22, 2024	39	@ West Virginia	L	52-81	0.4%
Jan 03, 2025	322	Stonehill	L	65-67	42%
Jan 05, 2025	221	Central Connecticut St.	L	59-67	23%
Jan 10, 2025	336	@ St. Francis (PA)	L	66-72	29%
Jan 12, 2025	332	@ Le Moyne	L	65-72	26%
Jan 18, 2025	309	@ Wagner	L	53-62	21%
Jan 20, 2025	340	@ LIU Brooklyn	L	64-70	30%
Jan 24, 2025	309	Wagner	L	56-59	39%
Jan 26, 2025	340	LIU Brooklyn	W	68-67	51%
Jan 30, 2025	336	St. Francis (PA)	W	69-68	50%
Feb 01, 2025	334	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	L	71-78	27%
Feb 06, 2025	360	@ Chicago St.	L	66-69	40%
Feb 08, 2025	332	Le Moyne	L	68-69	47%
Feb 13, 2025	221	@ Central Connecticut St.	L	56-70	10%
Feb 15, 2025	322	@ Stonehill	L	62-70	24%
Feb 20, 2025	334	Fairleigh Dickinson	L	74-75	47%
Feb 27, 2025	360	Chicago St.	W	69-66	61%
Projected Record						9 - 19	6 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Northeast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0			1.3	1st
2nd									0.0	0.7	1.5	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0				3.5	2nd
3rd								0.0	1.2	2.9	1.4	0.2	0.0						5.8	3rd
4th							0.0	1.3	4.3	2.2	0.3	0.0							8.1	4th
5th						0.0	1.1	5.3	3.5	0.4	0.0								10.2	5th
6th					0.0	1.0	5.6	5.5	0.7	0.0									12.9	6th
7th				0.1	1.5	6.1	6.7	1.4	0.0										15.8	7th
8th		0.0	0.4	2.6	7.2	7.4	1.9	0.1											19.5	8th
9th	0.5	2.3	5.4	7.6	5.4	1.5	0.1												22.8	9th

Total	0.5	2.3	5.8	10.3	14.1	16.1	15.4	13.6	9.8	6.2	3.4	1.5	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0				Total

Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0
15-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
14-2	95.2%	0.1		0.1	0.0
13-3	82.6%	0.2		0.1	0.1
12-4	62.0%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0
11-5	24.3%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
10-6	5.2%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
9-7	0.2%	0.0					0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	1.3%	1.3		0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1	0.0%																						0.0	0.0
14-2	0.1%		14.3%	14.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.1
13-3	0.2%		19.8%	19.8%		16.0																	0.0	0.2
12-4	0.7%		11.6%	11.6%		16.0																	0.1	0.6
11-5	1.5%		8.9%	8.9%		16.0																	0.1	1.4
10-6	3.4%		8.1%	8.1%		16.0																	0.3	3.1
9-7	6.2%		5.8%	5.8%		16.0																	0.4	5.9
8-8	9.8%		3.1%	3.1%		16.0																	0.3	9.5
7-9	13.6%		2.9%	2.9%		16.0																	0.4	13.2
6-10	15.4%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																	0.3	15.1
5-11	16.1%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.2	15.9
4-12	14.1%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	14.0
3-13	10.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.3
2-14	5.8%																							5.8
1-15	2.3%																							2.3
0-16	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		2.2%	2.2%	0.0%	16.0																	2.2	97.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.5%