Lafayette
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#246
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#279
Pace64.4#297
Improvement-0.3#201

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#286
First Shot-1.1#201
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#323
Layup/Dunks-1.3#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#103
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement+0.7#124

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#196
First Shot+1.1#133
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#322
Layups/Dunks-0.6#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#60
Freethrows-1.4#276
Improvement-1.0#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 14.6% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 54.9% 65.8% 41.2%
.500 or above in Conference 68.7% 73.5% 62.7%
Conference Champion 16.9% 19.8% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 5.0% 8.2%
First Four6.4% 6.2% 6.7%
First Round10.0% 11.7% 7.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 415 - 916 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 44   @ Villanova L 63-75 5%     0 - 1 +1.7 -5.2 +6.6
  Nov 09, 2024 164   @ La Salle L 60-81 24%     0 - 2 -18.4 -11.7 -6.5
  Nov 12, 2024 274   Penn W 65-63 67%     1 - 2 -7.2 -0.8 -6.0
  Nov 16, 2024 120   @ Cornell L 71-81 17%     1 - 3 -4.4 -0.3 -4.4
  Nov 20, 2024 99   @ Rhode Island L 72-86 11%     1 - 4 -5.5 +1.1 -6.2
  Nov 29, 2024 340   LIU Brooklyn W 75-56 82%     2 - 4 +4.6 -0.9 +6.1
  Nov 30, 2024 320   Niagara W 59-47 75%     3 - 4 +0.1 -17.0 +17.9
  Dec 01, 2024 314   Binghamton L 81-82 OT 74%     3 - 5 -12.6 -1.8 -10.7
  Dec 07, 2024 358   @ Mercyhurst W 77-73 73%     4 - 5 -7.1 +6.8 -13.4
  Dec 18, 2024 136   @ George Washington L 62-82 19%     4 - 6 -15.6 -5.9 -10.9
  Dec 21, 2024 325   @ Portland W 70-68 56%    
  Dec 29, 2024 322   Stonehill W 70-63 76%    
  Jan 02, 2025 256   Boston University W 66-63 63%    
  Jan 05, 2025 302   @ Navy L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 08, 2025 264   @ Bucknell L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 310   Holy Cross W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 15, 2025 299   @ Army L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 223   Colgate W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 22, 2025 313   @ Loyola Maryland W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 244   @ Lehigh L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 29, 2025 242   American W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 223   @ Colgate L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 05, 2025 313   Loyola Maryland W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 302   Navy W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 10, 2025 242   @ American L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 264   Bucknell W 67-63 64%    
  Feb 19, 2025 310   @ Holy Cross W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 244   Lehigh W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 25, 2025 299   Army W 70-64 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 256   @ Boston University L 63-66 41%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.6 4.4 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 16.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.4 5.4 3.2 0.8 0.1 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.2 5.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.4 6.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 6.0 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.7 3.0 0.2 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.3 0.4 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.0 0.6 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.5 5.5 8.6 11.0 13.3 13.8 13.2 10.6 8.1 5.2 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.1
15-3 95.2% 2.7    2.5 0.3
14-4 83.8% 4.4    3.3 1.0 0.1
13-5 57.0% 4.6    2.4 1.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 26.7% 2.8    0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 5.4% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.9% 16.9 10.4 4.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 33.7% 33.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.2% 34.4% 34.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8
15-3 2.9% 33.0% 33.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 1.9
14-4 5.2% 28.2% 28.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 3.7
13-5 8.1% 23.3% 23.3% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.3 6.2
12-6 10.6% 20.0% 20.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 1.8 8.5
11-7 13.2% 15.9% 15.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.0 11.1
10-8 13.8% 12.1% 12.1% 16.0 0.1 1.6 12.1
9-9 13.3% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2 12.0
8-10 11.0% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.6 10.4
7-11 8.6% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.3 8.3
6-12 5.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.4
5-13 3.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 3.4
4-14 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 9.9 86.9 0.0%