Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.9#331
Expected Predictive Rating-13.1#339
Pace67.7#229
Improvement+2.9#22

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#333
First Shot-4.7#303
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#258
Layup/Dunks-3.2#289
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#222
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#204
Freethrows+0.0#180
Improvement-0.5#228

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#305
First Shot-0.4#186
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#339
Layups/Dunks-3.2#294
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#110
Freethrows+2.5#52
Improvement+3.4#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.9% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3.5% 7.4% 2.5%
.500 or above in Conference 26.5% 34.1% 24.4%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.2% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 24.3% 19.0% 25.8%
First Four2.0% 2.5% 1.9%
First Round1.1% 1.6% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Away) - 21.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 49 - 1310 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 184 @Saint Joseph's L 76-85 15%     0 - 1 -7.7 +4.7 -12.3
  Sat, Nov 8 50 @Texas L 60-97 2%     0 - 2 -23.3 -7.6 -16.3
  Thu, Nov 13 150 Cornell L 78-97 25%     0 - 3 -21.7 -5.4 -15.0
  Mon, Nov 17 65 @West Virginia L 59-81 3%     0 - 4 -10.4 -3.0 -8.4
  Fri, Nov 21 338 @Stonehill L 70-74 43%     0 - 5 -12.1 -5.8 -6.2
  Fri, Nov 28 321 Le Moyne L 63-76 59%     0 - 6 -25.2 -18.8 -6.5
  Sat, Nov 29 316 Ball St. W 55-37 56%     1 - 6 +6.5 -15.1 +24.1
  Sun, Nov 30 205 Monmouth L 74-88 34%     1 - 7 -19.7 -2.2 -17.4
  Fri, Dec 5 328 Mercyhurst W 79-71 60%     2 - 7 -4.6 +8.5 -12.3
  Mon, Dec 8 240 @Penn L 70-78 21%    
  Thu, Dec 18 186 @Charlotte L 63-74 15%    
  Sat, Dec 20 134 @Georgia Tech L 63-78 8%    
  Wed, Dec 31 176 Colgate L 68-74 30%    
  Sat, Jan 3 319 @Loyola Maryland L 70-74 36%    
  Wed, Jan 7 235 Boston University L 69-71 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 198 @Navy L 64-75 17%    
  Wed, Jan 14 304 @Bucknell L 69-74 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 301 Holy Cross W 70-69 54%    
  Wed, Jan 21 235 @Boston University L 66-74 22%    
  Sat, Jan 24 299 @Lehigh L 67-72 31%    
  Mon, Jan 26 304 Bucknell W 72-71 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 250 @American L 68-76 24%    
  Wed, Feb 4 198 Navy L 67-72 34%    
  Sat, Feb 7 342 @Army L 71-73 44%    
  Wed, Feb 11 319 Loyola Maryland W 73-71 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 299 Lehigh W 70-69 53%    
  Wed, Feb 18 301 @Holy Cross L 67-72 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 250 American L 71-73 43%    
  Wed, Feb 25 176 @Colgate L 65-77 15%    
  Sat, Feb 28 342 Army W 74-70 65%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.6 1.2 0.1 7.5 4th
5th 0.3 2.9 4.4 1.5 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.1 2.3 0.2 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.4 3.2 6.6 3.3 0.3 0.0 13.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.7 3.6 0.4 0.0 15.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 4.1 6.6 3.7 0.5 16.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 2.7 4.7 4.3 2.1 0.3 15.7 10th
Total 0.2 1.3 2.9 5.9 9.1 12.8 14.2 14.0 13.0 9.7 7.3 4.6 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 85.5% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 73.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 39.5% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1
12-6 13.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 11.3% 11.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5
13-5 1.4% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 1.2
12-6 2.6% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.4
11-7 4.6% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.3 4.3
10-8 7.3% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.4 6.9
9-9 9.7% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.3 9.4
8-10 13.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 12.7
7-11 14.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.9
6-12 14.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 14.1
5-13 12.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.7
4-14 9.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.0
3-15 5.9% 5.9
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%