Lafayette
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#281
Expected Predictive Rating-8.9#311
Pace65.2#264
Improvement-0.6#217

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#307
First Shot-2.6#246
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#317
Layup/Dunks-2.3#270
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#134
Freethrows+1.0#111
Improvement-0.2#196

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#220
First Shot-0.3#189
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#293
Layups/Dunks-2.4#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#66
Freethrows-1.3#275
Improvement-0.4#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.3% 9.4% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 6.6% 8.7% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 44.2% 52.8% 21.7%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 10.1% 5.2% 23.0%
First Four7.4% 8.2% 5.3%
First Round4.8% 5.4% 3.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 413 - 1213 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 46   @ Villanova L 63-75 4%     0 - 1 +1.4 -4.7 +5.9
  Nov 09, 2024 193   @ La Salle L 60-81 23%     0 - 2 -20.0 -12.0 -7.8
  Nov 12, 2024 273   Penn W 65-63 58%     1 - 2 -6.8 -1.1 -5.3
  Nov 16, 2024 122   @ Cornell L 71-81 14%     1 - 3 -5.2 -1.4 -4.0
  Nov 20, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 72-86 14%     1 - 4 -9.2 -0.1 -8.6
  Nov 29, 2024 327   LIU Brooklyn W 75-56 72%     2 - 4 +6.3 +2.2 +4.7
  Nov 30, 2024 316   Niagara W 59-47 68%     3 - 4 +0.4 -16.1 +17.4
  Dec 01, 2024 313   Binghamton L 81-82 OT 67%     3 - 5 -12.2 -2.9 -9.3
  Dec 07, 2024 353   @ Mercyhurst W 77-73 65%     4 - 5 -6.6 +7.2 -13.5
  Dec 18, 2024 124   @ George Washington L 62-82 15%     4 - 6 -15.4 -4.5 -12.1
  Dec 21, 2024 299   @ Portland L 64-74 44%     4 - 7 -15.2 -14.3 -0.8
  Dec 29, 2024 321   Stonehill L 65-70 70%     4 - 8 -17.2 -12.6 -4.7
  Jan 02, 2025 294   Boston University W 60-46 62%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +4.2 -4.9 +11.7
  Jan 05, 2025 263   @ Navy L 70-71 37%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -4.2 -0.5 -3.8
  Jan 08, 2025 251   @ Bucknell L 62-65 OT 35%     5 - 10 1 - 2 -5.8 -11.7 +6.0
  Jan 11, 2025 319   Holy Cross W 82-65 69%     6 - 10 2 - 2 +5.2 +4.5 +1.2
  Jan 15, 2025 297   @ Army L 68-70 43%     6 - 11 2 - 3 -7.0 +1.3 -8.6
  Jan 18, 2025 239   Colgate L 67-90 52%     6 - 12 2 - 4 -30.1 -10.1 -20.2
  Jan 22, 2025 325   @ Loyola Maryland W 80-59 53%     7 - 12 3 - 4 +13.5 +10.5 +4.9
  Jan 25, 2025 267   @ Lehigh L 47-86 38%     7 - 13 3 - 5 -42.5 -24.8 -19.4
  Jan 29, 2025 233   American L 68-75 50%     7 - 14 3 - 6 -13.6 -2.7 -11.6
  Feb 01, 2025 239   @ Colgate W 76-61 33%     8 - 14 4 - 6 +12.9 +8.9 +5.6
  Feb 05, 2025 325   Loyola Maryland W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 263   Navy W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 10, 2025 233   @ American L 63-68 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 251   Bucknell W 68-67 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 319   @ Holy Cross W 69-68 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 267   Lehigh W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 25, 2025 297   Army W 70-67 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 294   @ Boston University L 62-64 42%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 0.7 1.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 2.8 0.4 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 5.5 1.5 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.2 7.1 5.4 0.3 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 3.3 10.0 1.1 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.9 10.6 4.6 0.1 16.2 6th
7th 0.4 6.7 9.8 0.4 17.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 8.0 1.6 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.9 2.8 0.1 7.7 9th
10th 0.3 1.8 1.7 0.2 3.9 10th
Total 0.4 2.7 8.6 18.5 25.6 23.6 14.1 5.4 1.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 61.7% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 13.3% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.2% 20.8% 20.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
11-7 5.4% 16.8% 16.8% 15.9 0.1 0.8 4.5
10-8 14.1% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1 11.9
9-9 23.6% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.0 2.6 21.0
8-10 25.6% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 1.6 24.1
7-11 18.5% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.7 17.8
6-12 8.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 8.4
5-13 2.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.1 91.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 15.3 8.0 56.0 36.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.3%