Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
191 Colgate 31.2%   16   6 - 7 2 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 5 -1.9      +0.2 162 -2.1 240 67.4 236 -1.0 180 +8.9 1
208 Navy 26.2%   8 - 5 2 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 5 -2.8      -2.6 243 -0.2 174 67.4 240 -2.0 202 +7.1 3
244 American 16.3%   7 - 6 2 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 6 -4.8      -2.7 244 -2.2 244 70.0 166 -0.9 176 +8.2 2
283 Boston University 7.9%   4 - 10 0 - 2 13 - 17 9 - 9 -6.8      +0.6 149 -7.4 351 60.4 361 -9.3 310 -20.3 8
312 Bucknell 4.2%   4 - 11 1 - 1 11 - 20 8 - 10 -8.7      -7.1 340 -1.6 223 68.8 201 -8.7 300 -10.0 7
313 Lafayette 4.6%   3 - 11 1 - 1 10 - 20 8 - 10 -8.7      -4.5 293 -4.2 310 67.9 227 -12.2 332 -7.0 5
321 Holy Cross 3.2%   4 - 9 1 - 1 11 - 18 8 - 10 -9.7      -4.8 301 -4.9 325 64.0 316 -6.8 270 -8.7 6
323 Army 2.9%   5 - 8 1 - 1 12 - 17 8 - 10 -9.9      -4.7 298 -5.2 334 68.3 216 -6.9 271 -6.2 4
329 Lehigh 2.3%   2 - 11 0 - 2 8 - 21 6 - 12 -10.4      -6.6 336 -3.7 295 68.5 210 -16.0 349 -25.6 10
344 Loyola Maryland 1.2%   2 - 11 0 - 2 7 - 22 5 - 13 -12.0      -3.6 274 -8.4 359 68.5 206 -18.6 356 -23.9 9




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 31 191 Colgate 85 313 Lafayette 77   
Wed, Dec 31 283 Boston University 77 208 Navy 82   
Wed, Dec 31 323 Army 85 329 Lehigh 78   
Wed, Dec 31 312 Bucknell 58 321 Holy Cross 65   
Wed, Dec 31 244 American 84 344 Loyola Maryland 69   
Sat, Jan 3 323 Army 69 191 Colgate 76   
Sat, Jan 3 244 American 64 283 Boston University 62   
Sat, Jan 3 321 Holy Cross 58 208 Navy 65   
Sat, Jan 3 312 Bucknell 72 329 Lehigh 65   
Sat, Jan 3 313 Lafayette 79 344 Loyola Maryland 64   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 7 244 American 71 191 Colgate 77 72%   
Wed, Jan 7 283 Boston University 71 313 Lafayette 72 54%   
Wed, Jan 7 321 Holy Cross 68 329 Lehigh 71 59%   
Wed, Jan 7 312 Bucknell 64 208 Navy 73 80%   
Wed, Jan 7 323 Army 78 344 Loyola Maryland 73 69%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 1.9 51.4 26.0 12.8 5.4 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Navy 2.2 38.7 29.9 16.3 7.7 3.7 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
American 3.0 21.1 24.5 23.1 13.6 8.0 4.9 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.2
Boston University 5.3 2.8 7.0 12.8 17.9 16.2 14.0 11.2 8.8 5.7 3.6
Bucknell 5.8 2.2 5.1 9.7 13.9 15.8 14.9 14.1 11.3 8.5 4.5
Lafayette 5.6 2.1 6.3 10.8 15.0 15.7 14.4 12.7 11.2 8.0 3.9
Holy Cross 6.2 1.1 3.7 8.0 11.9 13.7 14.7 14.1 14.1 11.1 7.7
Army 6.2 1.1 4.0 8.1 12.0 13.8 14.7 14.5 13.4 11.3 7.2
Lehigh 7.5 0.4 1.3 3.2 5.8 8.8 11.2 13.9 16.5 19.5 19.4
Loyola Maryland 8.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.5 5.8 8.4 11.6 15.6 20.6 31.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 5.2 9.0 13.5 16.6 18.1 15.9 10.8 5.0 1.4
Navy 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.2 7.8 11.5 15.5 17.6 16.3 12.8 7.2 3.0 0.7
American 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.9 5.6 8.9 13.3 15.6 16.2 14.2 10.7 6.9 2.9 0.9 0.2
Boston University 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 5.1 8.7 12.6 15.6 16.2 14.4 11.0 6.9 3.4 1.6 0.4 0.1
Bucknell 8 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.0 7.4 11.5 15.0 16.3 15.4 12.0 8.4 4.7 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.4 6.7 11.0 13.9 16.0 15.8 12.5 9.3 5.7 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.1
Holy Cross 8 - 10 0.1 1.0 2.6 5.4 10.1 13.8 15.7 15.3 13.8 10.2 6.4 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Army 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 2.5 5.7 9.7 13.3 15.8 16.1 13.1 10.4 6.5 3.7 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Lehigh 6 - 12 0.2 1.4 3.6 7.3 12.0 15.0 16.9 14.7 12.0 8.3 4.8 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 5 - 13 0.6 2.6 6.5 11.5 15.2 16.9 15.8 12.6 8.8 5.1 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 51.4% 38.2 11.1 1.9 0.2 0.0
Navy 38.7% 26.5 10.1 1.9 0.2 0.0
American 21.1% 13.0 6.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
Boston University 2.8% 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Bucknell 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 2.1% 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Army 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lehigh 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 31.2% 31.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.4 1.7 6.0 12.9 10.2 68.8 0.0%
Navy 26.2% 26.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.3 10.4 11.5 73.8 0.0%
American 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.8 9.3 83.7 0.0%
Boston University 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.2 92.1 0.0%
Bucknell 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 4.1 95.8 0.0%
Lafayette 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 4.5 95.4 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.1 96.8 0.0%
Army 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.1 2.8 97.1 0.0%
Lehigh 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 2.3 97.7 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2 98.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 31.2% 3.4% 29.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 26.2% 4.2% 24.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 16.3% 4.0% 14.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 7.9% 5.5% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 4.2% 3.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 4.6% 4.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 3.2% 2.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 2.9% 2.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 2.3% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 83.5% 0.8 16.5 83.5
2nd Round 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0