Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
174 Navy 39.2%   16   17 - 6 11 - 1 -0.8      -2.5 236 +1.7 120 65.0 280 +0.1 156 +4.5 1
205 Colgate 27.1%   13 - 10 9 - 3 -2.7      -0.9 189 -1.8 233 67.4 219 -2.5 210 -2.6 2
254 American 12.4%   11 - 12 6 - 6 -5.2      -3.4 263 -1.8 234 67.3 221 -5.2 248 -7.1 3
282 Boston University 6.9%   9 - 15 5 - 7 -7.0      +0.1 158 -7.0 347 60.6 356 -8.8 306 -9.5 8
309 Lehigh 3.7%   8 - 15 6 - 6 -8.8      -5.6 315 -3.3 277 67.5 217 -9.5 316 -7.9 4
313 Lafayette 3.1%   7 - 17 5 - 7 -9.2      -6.2 326 -3.0 268 67.1 229 -10.2 322 -8.4 5
316 Loyola Maryland 2.8%   7 - 16 5 - 7 -9.7      -4.0 279 -5.7 328 70.0 142 -11.8 338 -9.2 6
319 Bucknell 2.3%   8 - 17 5 - 7 -9.8      -6.4 333 -3.4 282 67.5 216 -9.1 309 -9.4 7
323 Holy Cross 1.7%   7 - 16 4 - 8 -10.0      -5.0 305 -5.0 315 64.4 297 -9.4 312 -11.1 9
340 Army 0.9%   8 - 15 4 - 8 -11.4      -5.1 308 -6.3 338 67.7 212 -9.5 317 -11.4 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 4 254 American 59 319 Bucknell 60   
Wed, Feb 4 313 Lafayette 50 174 Navy 65   
Wed, Feb 4 309 Lehigh 84 316 Loyola Maryland 89   
Wed, Feb 4 340 Army 55 205 Colgate 69   
Sat, Feb 7 254 American 73 174 Navy 82   
Sat, Feb 7 323 Holy Cross 76 309 Lehigh 67   
Sat, Feb 7 340 Army 60 313 Lafayette 63   
Sat, Feb 7 282 Boston University 78 316 Loyola Maryland 69   
Sat, Feb 7 319 Bucknell 59 205 Colgate 78   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Feb 9 319 Bucknell 65 174 Navy 71 72%   
Wed, Feb 11 313 Lafayette 75 316 Loyola Maryland 71 63%   
Wed, Feb 11 254 American 72 309 Lehigh 71 52%   
Wed, Feb 11 205 Colgate 74 323 Holy Cross 69 66%   
Wed, Feb 11 340 Army 72 282 Boston University 73 56%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.1 92.7 7.3 0.0
Colgate 1.9 16.6 80.8 2.4 0.2 0.0
American 3.5 0.0 8.1 61.2 15.9 7.7 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Boston University 5.2 1.2 17.0 24.1 19.4 13.8 11.6 7.4 4.1 1.6
Lehigh 4.9 1.2 22.9 25.9 18.0 13.7 9.9 6.4 1.7 0.3
Lafayette 5.5 1.0 13.0 21.4 19.8 14.9 13.2 8.9 5.5 2.3
Loyola Maryland 6.3 0.3 5.1 14.8 17.9 17.5 17.3 12.0 9.9 5.3
Bucknell 6.3 0.3 7.3 14.2 15.5 15.1 16.9 13.9 10.9 6.0
Holy Cross 7.6 0.0 1.5 7.2 9.7 10.7 14.7 15.0 23.4 17.9
Army 8.3 0.0 0.7 2.8 5.6 7.2 11.3 14.8 26.0 31.6

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 15 - 3 21 - 8 0.1 1.3 7.0 18.7 31.5 29.3 12.1
Colgate 13 - 5 17 - 12 0.2 2.9 12.7 26.2 32.1 20.3 5.6
American 10 - 8 15 - 14 0.3 2.5 10.7 23.8 30.9 24.0 7.9
Boston University 8 - 10 12 - 18 1.0 7.3 20.0 30.4 25.3 13.0 2.9
Lehigh 8 - 10 10 - 19 4.1 17.6 29.8 28.5 15.4 4.0 0.5
Lafayette 8 - 10 10 - 20 1.7 9.9 23.0 30.9 23.6 9.3 1.6
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 10 - 19 3.7 16.0 30.3 29.4 15.7 4.6 0.4
Bucknell 7 - 11 10 - 21 5.2 18.4 28.8 27.2 15.3 4.5 0.7
Holy Cross 7 - 11 10 - 19 4.3 16.8 27.8 27.7 16.6 5.9 0.8
Army 6 - 12 10 - 19 8.7 25.7 31.9 22.4 9.1 2.0 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 92.7% 83.4 9.3 0.0
Colgate 16.6% 7.3 9.3 0.0
American 0.0% 0.0
Boston University
Lehigh
Lafayette
Loyola Maryland
Bucknell
Holy Cross
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 39.2% 39.2% 0.0% 16   0.2 2.9 12.3 19.0 4.8 60.8 0.0%
Colgate 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.3 13.1 10.4 72.9 0.0%
American 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.4 9.6 87.6 0.0%
Boston University 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.2 6.7 93.1 0.0%
Lehigh 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 3.6 96.3 0.0%
Lafayette 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 3.1 96.9 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 2.8 97.3 0.0%
Bucknell 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 2.3 97.7 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.7 98.3 0.0%
Army 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.1 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 85.8% 0.9 14.2 85.8
2nd Round 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 39.2% 0.6% 39.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 27.1% 2.4% 25.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 12.4% 5.4% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 6.9% 5.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 3.7% 3.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 3.1% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.8% 2.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 2.3% 2.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%