Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
176 Colgate 29.5%   16   4 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 5 -1.3      -0.3 173 -1.0 200 67.4 240 +0.5 163 0.0 1
198 Navy 22.5%   4 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 -2.4      -2.0 223 -0.4 178 67.4 245 -3.5 222 0.0 1
235 Boston University 13.8%   3 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 8 -4.5      +1.5 124 -6.0 344 60.4 359 -2.8 208 0.0 1
250 American 12.4%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -4.9      -3.6 260 -1.3 211 73.5 88 -2.3 203 0.0 1
299 Lehigh 5.0%   2 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -7.7      -4.7 301 -2.9 268 67.5 237 -9.4 300 0.0 1
301 Holy Cross 5.1%   2 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -7.8      -3.6 263 -4.2 318 65.1 295 -6.0 259 0.0 1
304 Bucknell 4.9%   2 - 8 0 - 0 11 - 20 8 - 10 -7.9      -4.2 283 -3.8 301 68.8 206 -8.4 292 0.0 1
319 Loyola Maryland 3.3%   2 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -9.1      -3.6 265 -5.5 337 69.0 199 -13.7 344 0.0 1
331 Lafayette 2.3%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 21 7 - 11 -9.9      -6.0 333 -3.9 305 67.7 229 -13.1 339 0.0 1
342 Army 1.3%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -11.3      -5.2 314 -6.0 347 69.0 198 -10.5 313 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 342 Army 70 62 George Washington 84   
Tue, Dec 2 349 Binghamton 80 299 Lehigh 71   
Wed, Dec 3 250 American 75 256 Drexel 73   
Wed, Dec 3 355 Delaware St. 59 198 Navy 66   
Wed, Dec 3 301 Holy Cross 76 227 Northeastern 59   
Wed, Dec 3 54 Akron 97 304 Bucknell 77   
Wed, Dec 3 212 Hampton 93 319 Loyola Maryland 71   
Fri, Dec 5 331 Lafayette 79 328 Mercyhurst 71   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 304 Bucknell 74 272 Maryland Baltimore Co. 73 55%   
Sat, Dec 6 230 LIU Brooklyn 73 299 Lehigh 72 53%   
Sat, Dec 6 211 Fordham 72 301 Holy Cross 64 77%   
Sat, Dec 6 250 American 70 341 Maryland Eastern Shore 61 81%   
Sat, Dec 6 235 Boston University 72 344 New Hampshire 68 65%   
Sun, Dec 7 332 Air Force 61 198 Navy 72 84%   
Mon, Dec 8 331 Lafayette 70 240 Penn 78 79%   
Tue, Dec 9 304 Bucknell 70 335 Rider 71 52%   
Tue, Dec 9 319 Loyola Maryland 74 337 VMI 75 54%   
Wed, Dec 10 176 Colgate 66 111 St. Bonaventure 74 78%   
Wed, Dec 10 235 Boston University 69 326 Maine 61 77%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 2.4 42.1 22.7 13.6 8.2 5.5 3.4 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.3
Navy 2.9 31.0 23.2 16.1 10.6 7.4 5.2 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.5
Boston University 3.9 16.7 17.6 16.7 13.4 11.0 8.7 6.3 4.8 3.2 1.6
American 4.1 14.4 16.0 16.1 14.0 11.6 9.5 7.4 5.3 3.7 2.0
Lehigh 5.7 4.9 7.7 10.3 11.6 12.5 12.5 12.5 11.4 9.7 7.0
Holy Cross 5.8 4.6 7.4 10.0 11.5 12.8 13.0 12.4 11.2 9.7 7.3
Bucknell 5.8 3.8 7.0 9.2 11.6 12.9 13.3 13.1 11.7 10.3 7.0
Loyola Maryland 6.5 2.6 4.9 7.0 9.2 11.1 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.0 11.9
Lafayette 6.9 1.7 3.3 5.4 7.5 9.3 12.0 13.8 15.0 16.4 15.7
Army 7.6 0.8 2.0 3.4 5.3 7.3 9.2 11.7 15.2 19.4 25.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.2 3.5 5.8 8.6 11.5 14.5 14.9 13.7 11.9 7.6 3.7 0.8
Navy 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.1 8.1 10.8 13.3 14.7 14.0 12.3 8.5 5.2 1.8 0.4
Boston University 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.4 6.5 9.1 11.9 12.9 14.1 12.7 10.1 7.1 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.1
American 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.9 7.4 10.1 12.5 13.7 13.1 12.0 9.4 6.2 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1
Lehigh 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.7 7.8 10.6 12.8 13.8 12.7 11.5 9.0 6.1 3.8 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1
Holy Cross 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.9 7.9 10.4 13.0 13.8 13.2 11.3 9.0 6.1 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
Bucknell 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.5 5.2 8.3 10.6 13.6 14.1 13.5 11.2 8.4 5.6 3.3 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.4 7.6 10.9 12.8 13.7 13.3 11.4 9.2 6.4 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 7 - 11 0.2 1.3 2.9 5.9 9.1 12.8 14.2 14.0 13.0 9.7 7.3 4.6 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Army 6 - 12 0.5 2.1 5.7 9.2 13.2 14.3 14.5 12.9 9.9 7.5 4.8 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 42.1% 30.8 9.1 1.9 0.3 0.0
Navy 31.0% 21.3 7.6 1.7 0.3 0.0
Boston University 16.7% 10.5 4.7 1.2 0.3 0.0
American 14.4% 9.0 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0
Lehigh 4.9% 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 4.6% 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Bucknell 3.8% 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 2.6% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Army 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 29.5% 29.5% 0.0% 16   0.1 0.5 2.7 7.1 11.8 7.4 70.5 0.0%
Navy 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.1 8.0 10.4 77.5 0.0%
Boston University 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.2 8.1 86.2 0.0%
American 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.9 7.1 87.6 0.0%
Lehigh 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 4.5 95.0 0.0%
Holy Cross 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 4.3 94.9 0.0%
Bucknell 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.6 95.1 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.2 96.7 0.0%
Lafayette 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 2.2 97.7 0.0%
Army 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 98.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 29.5% 2.7% 28.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 22.5% 4.6% 20.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 13.8% 4.3% 11.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 12.4% 3.7% 10.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 5.0% 3.6% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 5.1% 3.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 4.9% 3.8% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.3% 2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 2.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 84.0% 0.8 16.0 84.0
2nd Round 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0