Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
162 Navy 42.0%   16   18 - 6 12 - 1 -0.5      -2.5 238 +2.1 109 65.2 268 +0.5 151 +5.0 1
208 Colgate 25.5%   13 - 10 9 - 3 -2.8      -0.9 185 -1.8 230 67.4 217 -2.6 210 -2.7 2
253 American 12.1%   11 - 12 6 - 6 -5.2      -3.3 261 -1.9 231 67.3 221 -5.2 247 -7.1 3
283 Boston University 6.4%   9 - 15 5 - 7 -7.0      +0.1 158 -7.1 348 60.6 356 -8.8 306 -9.5 7
310 Lehigh 3.8%   8 - 15 6 - 6 -8.9      -5.6 317 -3.3 282 67.5 216 -9.5 318 -7.9 4
314 Lafayette 3.1%   7 - 17 5 - 7 -9.2      -6.2 328 -3.1 269 67.1 227 -10.2 324 -8.5 5
318 Loyola Maryland 2.4%   7 - 16 5 - 7 -9.7      -4.1 278 -5.7 328 70.0 142 -11.9 340 -9.3 6
322 Holy Cross 1.9%   7 - 16 4 - 8 -10.0      -5.0 304 -5.0 315 64.3 299 -9.4 311 -11.2 9
325 Bucknell 2.0%   8 - 18 5 - 8 -10.2      -6.7 340 -3.4 284 67.7 208 -9.5 315 -9.9 8
339 Army 0.9%   8 - 15 4 - 8 -11.4      -5.1 307 -6.3 338 67.6 212 -9.5 316 -11.4 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 7 253 American 73 162 Navy 82   
Sat, Feb 7 322 Holy Cross 76 310 Lehigh 67   
Sat, Feb 7 339 Army 60 314 Lafayette 63   
Sat, Feb 7 283 Boston University 78 318 Loyola Maryland 69   
Sat, Feb 7 325 Bucknell 59 208 Colgate 78   
Mon, Feb 9 325 Bucknell 60 162 Navy 76   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 11 314 Lafayette 75 318 Loyola Maryland 71 63%   
Wed, Feb 11 253 American 72 310 Lehigh 71 53%   
Wed, Feb 11 208 Colgate 74 322 Holy Cross 69 66%   
Wed, Feb 11 339 Army 72 283 Boston University 73 56%   
Sat, Feb 14 208 Colgate 70 162 Navy 69 53%   
Sat, Feb 14 314 Lafayette 71 310 Lehigh 69 60%   
Sat, Feb 14 283 Boston University 74 325 Bucknell 68 72%   
Sat, Feb 14 253 American 77 339 Army 68 81%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.0 95.9 4.1
Colgate 1.9 11.5 85.7 2.5 0.2 0.0
American 3.5 8.0 62.0 15.8 7.2 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1
Boston University 5.1 1.2 17.0 26.1 19.3 14.1 10.3 6.3 4.0 1.6
Lehigh 4.8 1.3 24.3 25.8 18.4 13.8 9.3 5.2 1.8 0.3
Lafayette 5.5 0.9 13.4 22.2 19.4 15.5 13.2 8.5 4.9 2.1
Loyola Maryland 6.2 0.4 5.5 15.3 18.3 17.2 16.8 12.3 9.4 5.0
Holy Cross 7.5 0.0 1.7 7.2 10.1 11.9 14.9 15.6 22.1 16.3
Bucknell 6.8 0.1 3.7 9.6 13.8 15.9 17.8 17.7 14.1 7.3
Army 8.2 0.0 1.0 3.3 5.6 7.9 11.7 15.3 23.9 31.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 16 - 2 22 - 7 0.2 2.8 12.4 30.4 36.2 17.9
Colgate 13 - 5 17 - 12 0.3 3.0 12.6 27.2 31.6 20.1 5.2
American 10 - 8 15 - 14 0.3 2.9 10.9 23.2 31.2 23.8 7.7
Boston University 8 - 10 12 - 18 1.1 7.3 19.7 29.9 26.5 12.8 2.8
Lehigh 8 - 10 10 - 19 4.1 17.2 30.2 28.1 15.5 4.5 0.5
Lafayette 8 - 10 10 - 20 1.7 9.3 24.4 30.6 23.3 9.3 1.3
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 9 - 20 3.9 17.0 30.2 28.8 15.1 4.6 0.4
Holy Cross 7 - 11 10 - 19 3.9 15.8 28.1 28.5 17.0 5.8 0.9
Bucknell 7 - 11 10 - 21 7.0 24.1 33.5 24.9 9.1 1.4
Army 6 - 12 10 - 19 8.8 25.2 31.9 22.4 9.2 2.3 0.3

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 95.9% 88.5 7.4
Colgate 11.5% 4.1 7.4
American
Boston University
Lehigh
Lafayette
Loyola Maryland
Holy Cross
Bucknell
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 42.0% 42.0% 0.0% 16   0.2 3.7 16.1 18.6 3.4 58.0 0.0%
Colgate 25.5% 25.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.4 12.1 9.6 74.5 0.0%
American 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.2 9.6 87.9 0.0%
Boston University 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 6.0 93.6 0.0%
Lehigh 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 3.7 96.2 0.0%
Lafayette 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 3.1 96.9 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 2.4 97.6 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.9 98.1 0.0%
Bucknell 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 98.0 0.0%
Army 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 86.3% 0.9 13.7 86.3
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 42.0% 0.4% 41.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 25.5% 2.5% 24.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 12.1% 5.9% 9.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 6.4% 5.5% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 3.8% 3.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 3.1% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.4% 2.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%