Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
174 Navy 39.0%   16   16 - 6 10 - 1 -0.9      -3.3 258 +2.4 105 65.1 277 -0.1 164 +4.0 1
219 Colgate 23.6%   12 - 10 8 - 3 -3.3      -0.8 187 -2.5 256 67.4 219 -3.0 213 -3.3 2
253 American 14.0%   11 - 11 6 - 5 -5.1      -4.0 277 -1.1 214 67.6 216 -5.0 242 -6.9 3
289 Boston University 6.3%   8 - 15 4 - 7 -7.1      +0.3 154 -7.4 351 60.4 358 -9.1 313 -10.2 9
304 Lehigh 4.9%   8 - 14 6 - 5 -8.4      -5.6 318 -2.8 265 67.5 217 -9.0 308 -6.9 4
313 Bucknell 3.4%   8 - 16 5 - 6 -9.2      -5.7 319 -3.5 280 66.9 233 -8.7 305 -8.7 6
315 Lafayette 2.8%   6 - 17 4 - 7 -9.3      -5.7 321 -3.6 283 67.1 228 -11.0 330 -9.5 7
316 Loyola Maryland 3.2%   7 - 15 5 - 6 -9.5      -3.6 265 -5.9 331 69.5 161 -11.5 336 -8.5 5
326 Holy Cross 1.6%   6 - 16 3 - 8 -10.3      -5.3 309 -5.0 316 64.5 291 -9.8 320 -12.3 10
339 Army 1.2%   8 - 14 4 - 7 -11.3      -4.5 288 -6.8 344 67.6 215 -8.7 306 -10.1 8


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 4 253 American 59 313 Bucknell 60   
Wed, Feb 4 315 Lafayette 50 174 Navy 65   
Wed, Feb 4 304 Lehigh 84 316 Loyola Maryland 89   
Wed, Feb 4 339 Army 55 219 Colgate 69   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 7 253 American 64 174 Navy 71 75%   
Sat, Feb 7 289 Boston University 77 316 Loyola Maryland 72 70%   
Sat, Feb 7 326 Holy Cross 70 304 Lehigh 69 54%   
Sat, Feb 7 313 Bucknell 71 219 Colgate 74 61%   
Sat, Feb 7 339 Army 73 315 Lafayette 72 54%   
Mon, Feb 9 313 Bucknell 65 174 Navy 70 69%   
Wed, Feb 11 315 Lafayette 75 316 Loyola Maryland 72 62%   
Wed, Feb 11 253 American 71 304 Lehigh 70 51%   
Wed, Feb 11 339 Army 73 289 Boston University 74 55%   
Wed, Feb 11 219 Colgate 74 326 Holy Cross 70 65%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.1 92.1 7.5 0.4 0.0
Colgate 2.0 16.9 72.9 8.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
American 3.4 0.9 17.1 48.4 17.4 8.3 4.4 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.1
Boston University 5.9 1.7 9.4 18.3 17.6 15.5 14.6 11.7 7.3 3.9
Lehigh 4.4 0.2 6.1 27.2 27.2 16.8 10.5 6.7 3.7 1.2 0.3
Bucknell 5.7 0.0 2.2 9.9 18.3 17.9 17.0 14.7 11.0 6.6 2.6
Lafayette 6.5 1.0 5.6 12.7 15.2 15.6 16.6 14.2 11.7 7.5
Loyola Maryland 5.9 1.6 7.5 18.5 19.7 17.0 14.5 11.0 6.7 3.6
Holy Cross 8.3 0.1 0.8 3.8 5.7 7.8 10.9 14.3 24.2 32.6
Army 7.6 0.1 1.8 6.2 9.5 10.9 14.1 17.4 23.6 16.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 15 - 3 21 - 8 0.1 0.6 3.3 11.0 21.2 29.7 24.3 10.0
Colgate 12 - 6 16 - 13 0.2 1.7 8.0 18.6 28.5 25.5 14.1 3.4
American 10 - 8 15 - 14 0.2 2.8 10.0 20.0 29.0 24.3 11.3 2.4
Boston University 8 - 10 12 - 18 0.4 3.9 12.0 23.1 27.8 21.4 9.6 1.8
Lehigh 9 - 9 11 - 18 2.0 10.5 22.7 28.1 23.2 10.1 3.2 0.3
Bucknell 8 - 10 11 - 20 2.4 11.4 23.8 28.1 20.9 10.1 2.9 0.4
Lafayette 7 - 11 9 - 21 1.2 7.1 17.4 26.6 26.1 15.6 5.5 0.7
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 10 - 19 2.5 11.4 24.7 28.5 21.3 9.2 2.2 0.3
Holy Cross 6 - 12 9 - 20 2.6 10.9 23.2 28.0 20.9 10.6 3.3 0.5
Army 7 - 11 11 - 18 4.3 16.8 27.2 27.0 16.5 6.8 1.2 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 92.1% 82.6 9.1 0.4
Colgate 16.9% 7.6 8.8 0.4
American 0.9% 0.1 0.4 0.3
Boston University
Lehigh 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1
Bucknell 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Lafayette
Loyola Maryland
Holy Cross
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 39.0% 39.0% 0.0% 16   0.2 2.9 11.3 18.6 6.0 61.0 0.0%
Colgate 23.6% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.2 9.8 11.4 76.4 0.0%
American 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.9 10.9 86.0 0.0%
Boston University 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 6.0 93.7 0.0%
Lehigh 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.1 4.9 95.1 0.0%
Bucknell 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 3.4 96.6 0.0%
Lafayette 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 2.8 97.2 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 3.2 96.8 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6 98.5 0.0%
Army 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2 98.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 84.6% 0.8 15.4 84.6
2nd Round 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 39.0% 0.7% 38.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 23.6% 3.5% 22.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 14.0% 5.5% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 6.3% 5.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.9% 4.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 3.4% 3.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 2.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.2% 3.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.6% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%