Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
154 Navy 46.8%   15   21 - 6 15 - 1 +0.2      -2.2 233 +2.5 106 64.6 283 +1.4 138 +6.7 1
244 Colgate 18.0%   15 - 12 11 - 5 -4.5      -1.4 207 -3.1 267 67.4 215 -3.4 225 -3.8 2
253 American 12.8%   13 - 13 8 - 7 -5.0      -3.3 253 -1.7 226 67.7 205 -5.4 248 -7.0 4
257 Boston University 11.4%   12 - 15 8 - 7 -5.4      +1.5 129 -6.9 349 60.4 355 -7.7 287 -7.4 5
307 Lehigh 4.4%   10 - 16 8 - 7 -8.6      -5.4 308 -3.3 274 67.5 212 -8.5 304 -6.7 3
315 Loyola Maryland 2.5%   9 - 18 7 - 9 -9.4      -3.8 267 -5.7 325 70.4 128 -11.7 337 -9.4 6
322 Lafayette 1.7%   8 - 19 6 - 9 -10.3      -6.6 330 -3.7 286 67.1 225 -10.9 328 -9.8 7
327 Holy Cross 1.0%   7 - 19 4 - 11 -10.7      -4.9 299 -5.8 326 64.9 277 -11.3 332 -13.5 10
330 Bucknell 0.9%   8 - 20 5 - 10 -11.2      -7.4 343 -3.8 287 67.6 208 -10.2 323 -11.2 8
338 Army 0.5%   9 - 18 5 - 11 -11.9      -5.1 303 -6.8 347 67.2 221 -9.9 321 -11.6 9


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 18 253 American 75 330 Bucknell 57   
Wed, Feb 18 307 Lehigh 49 154 Navy 72   
Wed, Feb 18 327 Holy Cross 83 322 Lafayette 86   
Wed, Feb 18 338 Army 87 315 Loyola Maryland 77   
Sat, Feb 21 244 Colgate 101 315 Loyola Maryland 98   
Sat, Feb 21 338 Army 63 154 Navy 81   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Feb 22 257 Boston University 73 307 Lehigh 72 51%   
Sun, Feb 22 330 Bucknell 72 327 Holy Cross 69 60%   
Sun, Feb 22 253 American 72 322 Lafayette 70 59%   
Wed, Feb 25 253 American 75 307 Lehigh 68 74%   
Wed, Feb 25 338 Army 73 330 Bucknell 71 59%   
Wed, Feb 25 244 Colgate 77 322 Lafayette 68 80%   
Wed, Feb 25 257 Boston University 76 327 Holy Cross 68 78%   
Wed, Feb 25 315 Loyola Maryland 68 154 Navy 75 74%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.0 100.0
Colgate 2.0 100.0
American 3.5 4.2 57.3 24.6 12.7 1.1 0.1
Boston University 3.8 2.4 42.2 30.1 24.1 1.1 0.0
Lehigh 4.0 1.7 33.9 31.4 30.6 2.3 0.1
Loyola Maryland 6.0 0.1 3.6 17.7 58.7 18.7 1.3
Lafayette 6.5 0.1 2.7 11.2 38.8 30.0 14.7 2.5
Holy Cross 9.1 2.6 3.5 19.7 26.4 47.9
Bucknell 7.8 3.4 12.0 18.9 40.5 13.0 12.3
Army 8.2 8.0 13.0 37.0 32.6 9.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 17 - 1 23 - 6 6.6 36.6 56.8
Colgate 12 - 6 16 - 13 16.0 65.1 18.9
American 10 - 8 15 - 14 4.8 23.8 43.3 28.1
Boston University 10 - 8 14 - 16 7.2 34.5 42.4 15.9
Lehigh 9 - 9 11 - 18 12.1 40.0 37.7 10.2
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 10 - 19 41.8 45.9 12.3
Lafayette 7 - 11 9 - 21 16.6 45.3 31.8 6.3
Holy Cross 5 - 13 8 - 21 21.6 44.1 28.6 5.6
Bucknell 6 - 12 9 - 22 18.0 42.2 31.7 8.1
Army 6 - 12 10 - 19 27.4 52.3 20.3

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 100.0% 100.0
Colgate
American
Boston University
Lehigh
Loyola Maryland
Lafayette
Holy Cross
Bucknell
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 46.8% 46.8% 0.0% 15   0.3 7.2 24.5 14.0 0.8 53.2 0.0%
Colgate 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 7.0 10.0 82.1 0.0%
American 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.7 9.9 87.2 0.0%
Boston University 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 10.7 88.6 0.0%
Lehigh 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 4.4 95.6 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 2.5 97.5 0.0%
Lafayette 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 1.7 98.3 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Bucknell 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.1 0.0%
Army 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 85.6% 0.9 14.4 85.6
2nd Round 1.4% 0.0 98.7 1.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 46.8% 0.0% 46.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 18.0% 3.6% 16.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 12.8% 5.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 11.4% 8.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.4% 4.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.5% 2.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 1.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%