Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
163 Navy 42.4%   16   18 - 6 12 - 1 -0.5      -2.5 241 +2.1 111 65.2 271 +0.5 152 +5.0 1
208 Colgate 25.8%   13 - 10 9 - 3 -2.8      -0.9 186 -1.8 230 67.4 217 -2.6 210 -2.7 2
253 American 11.9%   11 - 12 6 - 6 -5.2      -3.3 260 -1.9 233 67.4 220 -5.2 248 -7.1 3
283 Boston University 6.6%   9 - 15 5 - 7 -7.0      +0.1 159 -7.1 347 60.6 356 -8.8 305 -9.5 7
310 Lehigh 3.7%   8 - 15 6 - 6 -8.9      -5.6 317 -3.3 280 67.5 216 -9.5 317 -7.9 4
314 Lafayette 3.1%   7 - 17 5 - 7 -9.3      -6.2 328 -3.1 270 67.1 227 -10.2 324 -8.5 5
317 Loyola Maryland 2.3%   7 - 16 5 - 7 -9.8      -4.1 278 -5.7 328 70.0 143 -11.9 339 -9.3 6
321 Holy Cross 1.6%   7 - 16 4 - 8 -10.0      -5.0 304 -5.0 314 64.3 298 -9.4 310 -11.2 9
324 Bucknell 1.8%   8 - 18 5 - 8 -10.2      -6.7 340 -3.4 283 67.7 209 -9.5 314 -10.0 8
339 Army 0.9%   8 - 15 4 - 8 -11.4      -5.1 307 -6.3 338 67.6 212 -9.5 315 -11.4 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 7 253 American 73 163 Navy 82   
Sat, Feb 7 321 Holy Cross 76 310 Lehigh 67   
Sat, Feb 7 339 Army 60 314 Lafayette 63   
Sat, Feb 7 283 Boston University 78 317 Loyola Maryland 69   
Sat, Feb 7 324 Bucknell 59 208 Colgate 78   
Mon, Feb 9 324 Bucknell 60 163 Navy 76   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 11 314 Lafayette 75 317 Loyola Maryland 71 63%   
Wed, Feb 11 253 American 72 310 Lehigh 71 53%   
Wed, Feb 11 208 Colgate 74 321 Holy Cross 69 66%   
Wed, Feb 11 339 Army 72 283 Boston University 74 56%   
Sat, Feb 14 208 Colgate 70 163 Navy 69 53%   
Sat, Feb 14 314 Lafayette 71 310 Lehigh 69 60%   
Sat, Feb 14 283 Boston University 74 324 Bucknell 68 72%   
Sat, Feb 14 253 American 77 339 Army 68 81%   
Sun, Feb 15 321 Holy Cross 72 317 Loyola Maryland 75 62%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.0 95.9 4.2
Colgate 1.9 11.5 85.6 2.6 0.2 0.0
American 3.4 8.7 62.0 15.6 7.4 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
Boston University 5.1 1.3 17.4 26.1 19.8 13.8 10.4 5.9 3.7 1.7
Lehigh 4.8 1.2 23.5 26.4 18.5 13.3 9.8 5.2 1.7 0.2
Lafayette 5.5 0.9 12.8 22.2 20.1 14.9 13.2 8.8 4.9 2.4
Loyola Maryland 6.2 0.4 5.8 15.7 17.4 17.2 17.2 12.3 9.6 4.6
Holy Cross 7.5 0.0 1.7 7.3 10.6 11.7 15.3 15.1 21.3 17.1
Bucknell 6.8 0.1 3.7 9.9 13.0 15.1 18.5 18.1 14.1 7.6
Army 8.2 0.9 3.3 5.8 7.9 12.5 15.2 24.2 30.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 16 - 2 22 - 7 0.3 2.9 12.8 30.6 36.2 17.3
Colgate 13 - 5 17 - 12 0.3 3.2 12.2 27.4 31.2 20.5 5.1
American 10 - 8 15 - 14 0.3 2.9 10.6 23.5 30.6 23.5 8.7
Boston University 8 - 10 12 - 18 1.1 6.8 19.3 30.5 26.4 13.1 2.8
Lehigh 8 - 10 10 - 19 4.2 17.4 30.5 28.5 14.8 4.1 0.5
Lafayette 8 - 10 10 - 20 1.7 9.9 23.8 31.2 23.4 8.7 1.2
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 10 - 19 3.3 17.3 30.6 28.6 15.1 4.6 0.5
Holy Cross 7 - 11 10 - 19 4.0 15.8 27.7 28.3 17.2 6.1 1.0
Bucknell 7 - 11 10 - 21 7.1 24.7 33.8 23.9 9.1 1.5
Army 6 - 12 10 - 19 7.7 25.7 31.8 23.0 9.4 2.2 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 95.9% 88.5 7.4
Colgate 11.5% 4.2 7.4
American
Boston University
Lehigh
Lafayette
Loyola Maryland
Holy Cross
Bucknell
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 42.4% 42.4% 0.0% 16   0.2 3.7 15.7 19.2 3.6 57.7 0.0%
Colgate 25.8% 25.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.0 12.3 10.0 74.2 0.0%
American 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.2 9.4 88.1 0.0%
Boston University 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.4 6.2 93.4 0.0%
Lehigh 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 3.7 96.3 0.0%
Lafayette 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 3.1 96.9 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 2.3 97.7 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6 98.4 0.0%
Bucknell 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.2 0.0%
Army 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 86.9% 0.9 13.2 86.9
2nd Round 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 42.4% 0.4% 42.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 25.8% 2.4% 24.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 11.9% 5.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 6.6% 5.6% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 3.7% 3.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 3.1% 3.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.3% 2.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%