Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
163 Navy 44.4%   16   19 - 6 13 - 1 -0.3      -2.3 233 +1.9 115 65.0 276 +1.2 144 +6.4 1
235 Colgate 19.6%   14 - 12 10 - 5 -4.2      -1.3 203 -2.9 265 67.4 220 -3.5 220 -4.0 2
257 Boston University 11.6%   12 - 15 8 - 7 -5.3      +1.5 125 -6.9 347 60.4 358 -7.6 288 -7.3 4
261 American 10.4%   12 - 13 7 - 7 -5.6      -3.4 260 -2.2 242 68.0 202 -5.8 260 -7.7 5
301 Lehigh 5.3%   10 - 15 8 - 6 -8.1      -4.7 296 -3.5 276 67.5 217 -8.3 302 -6.4 3
311 Loyola Maryland 4.0%   9 - 16 7 - 7 -8.8      -3.8 271 -5.0 313 69.6 147 -10.6 327 -7.8 6
323 Lafayette 1.4%   7 - 19 5 - 9 -10.4      -7.0 339 -3.4 273 66.7 236 -11.5 334 -10.6 8
326 Holy Cross 1.2%   7 - 18 4 - 10 -10.4      -5.2 306 -5.3 318 64.4 293 -10.4 326 -12.4 9
328 Bucknell 1.5%   8 - 19 5 - 9 -10.5      -6.9 338 -3.7 283 67.9 203 -9.6 317 -10.4 7
341 Army 0.5%   8 - 17 4 - 10 -12.2      -5.5 313 -6.7 344 67.3 223 -10.4 325 -12.5 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 14 235 Colgate 80 163 Navy 84   
Sat, Feb 14 323 Lafayette 69 301 Lehigh 78   
Sat, Feb 14 261 American 75 341 Army 63   
Sat, Feb 14 257 Boston University 82 328 Bucknell 69   
Sun, Feb 15 326 Holy Cross 73 311 Loyola Maryland 83   
Mon, Feb 16 257 Boston University 85 235 Colgate 58   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 18 326 Holy Cross 71 323 Lafayette 68 61%   
Wed, Feb 18 301 Lehigh 64 163 Navy 74 84%   
Wed, Feb 18 261 American 72 328 Bucknell 70 58%   
Wed, Feb 18 341 Army 72 311 Loyola Maryland 78 73%   
Sat, Feb 21 235 Colgate 79 311 Loyola Maryland 72 77%   
Sat, Feb 21 341 Army 66 163 Navy 74 80%   
Sun, Feb 22 257 Boston University 71 301 Lehigh 72 51%   
Sun, Feb 22 328 Bucknell 71 326 Holy Cross 69 61%   
Sun, Feb 22 261 American 71 323 Lafayette 70 57%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.0 100.0
Colgate 2.0 0.3 97.2 2.3 0.3 0.0
Boston University 3.8 6.0 41.6 27.0 18.5 6.7 0.2 0.0
American 4.0 5.3 37.7 25.7 17.6 11.0 2.2 0.5
Lehigh 3.8 7.1 40.4 25.9 18.0 7.9 0.8 0.0
Loyola Maryland 4.9 3.2 10.8 21.5 30.2 29.3 4.4 0.5 0.0
Lafayette 7.4 0.1 1.2 4.1 10.9 37.3 29.9 11.3 5.1
Holy Cross 8.4 0.1 1.4 3.9 19.5 23.3 33.7 18.2
Bucknell 7.3 0.4 2.6 5.4 12.7 38.1 25.5 10.8 4.3
Army 8.9 0.0 0.4 2.6 11.5 17.4 31.5 36.6

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 16 - 2 22 - 7 0.5 4.1 18.5 40.6 36.3
Colgate 12 - 6 16 - 13 3.9 26.0 53.3 16.8
Boston University 10 - 8 14 - 16 7.2 35.3 41.3 16.2
American 9 - 9 14 - 15 2.8 15.1 32.5 34.5 15.2
Lehigh 10 - 8 12 - 17 9.8 34.5 37.9 15.6 2.1
Loyola Maryland 9 - 9 11 - 18 9.0 33.4 37.2 17.5 3.0
Lafayette 7 - 11 9 - 21 10.0 33.6 36.9 16.8 2.7
Holy Cross 6 - 12 9 - 20 9.3 30.4 37.2 19.5 3.6
Bucknell 7 - 11 10 - 21 9.6 30.3 35.7 20.1 4.3
Army 5 - 13 9 - 20 19.2 39.6 29.8 10.1 1.3

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 100.0% 99.7 0.3
Colgate 0.3% 0.3
Boston University
American
Lehigh
Loyola Maryland
Lafayette
Holy Cross
Bucknell
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 44.4% 44.4% 0.0% 16   0.2 5.8 19.0 16.7 2.8 55.6 0.0%
Colgate 19.6% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 7.0 11.8 80.4 0.0%
Boston University 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.8 10.8 88.4 0.0%
American 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 8.8 89.6 0.0%
Lehigh 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.1 5.2 94.7 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 4.0 96.0 0.0%
Lafayette 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 1.4 98.6 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Bucknell 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5 98.5 0.0%
Army 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 84.0% 0.8 16.0 84.0
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 44.4% 0.2% 44.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 19.6% 4.4% 17.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 11.6% 8.6% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 10.4% 5.8% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 5.3% 5.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 1.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%