Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
233 American 20.0%   16   12 - 9 8 - 2 17 - 12 13 - 5 -4.2      -0.9 202 -3.2 269 60.4 352 -1.6 196 +0.5 1
239 Colgate 16.8%   8 - 15 6 - 5 12 - 18 10 - 8 -4.6      -0.8 195 -3.8 287 65.7 246 -6.4 270 -4.8 4
251 Bucknell 14.5%   10 - 13 6 - 4 15 - 16 11 - 7 -5.3      -4.6 298 -0.6 191 69.3 154 -5.5 255 -3.9 2
263 Navy 11.5%   7 - 15 5 - 5 11 - 19 9 - 9 -5.7      -3.0 248 -2.8 255 67.3 211 -9.7 318 -6.6 5
267 Lehigh 8.8%   7 - 13 4 - 7 11 - 16 8 - 10 -6.0      -3.6 272 -2.3 244 68.7 169 -8.4 303 -10.3 9
281 Lafayette 8.3%   8 - 14 4 - 6 12 - 18 8 - 10 -6.7      -5.0 307 -1.7 220 65.2 264 -8.9 311 -8.1 7
294 Boston University 7.7%   10 - 12 5 - 5 14 - 16 9 - 9 -7.3      -5.6 321 -1.7 222 60.2 353 -6.7 275 -6.7 6
297 Army 8.1%   10 - 10 6 - 4 14 - 14 10 - 8 -7.5      -3.9 278 -3.6 279 68.1 187 -5.4 253 -4.2 3
319 Holy Cross 2.3%   9 - 12 3 - 7 12 - 17 6 - 12 -9.3      -3.1 255 -6.2 341 64.8 273 -5.8 258 -11.5 10
325 Loyola Maryland 1.9%   8 - 12 4 - 6 11 - 17 7 - 11 -10.0      -5.1 310 -4.9 314 66.8 223 -8.8 308 -9.6 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
American 1.4 77.3 13.4 5.8 2.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Colgate 3.1 15.0 29.5 23.4 14.4 8.5 4.9 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1
Bucknell 3.0 19.8 30.3 18.5 13.1 8.1 5.5 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.1
Navy 4.5 4.9 13.6 17.1 17.9 16.3 12.6 9.0 5.0 2.5 1.0
Lehigh 6.8 0.3 1.7 3.7 7.6 11.0 14.8 19.8 20.8 13.4 6.9
Lafayette 5.9 1.5 5.3 8.4 13.0 14.4 16.2 17.3 12.3 7.7 3.9
Boston University 5.2 3.1 8.1 12.5 15.3 16.5 16.4 12.8 9.0 4.7 1.7
Army 4.0 8.8 19.0 17.6 17.8 14.8 10.5 6.5 3.3 1.4 0.4
Holy Cross 8.5 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.3 5.7 9.2 15.7 24.2 38.3
Loyola Maryland 7.9 0.1 0.8 1.7 3.4 5.0 8.4 12.6 19.7 29.3 19.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
American 13 - 5 0.2 1.2 5.6 14.6 23.5 25.9 18.7 8.4 1.9
Colgate 10 - 8 0.2 1.6 6.8 15.5 25.4 27.5 17.9 5.2
Bucknell 11 - 7 0.3 1.8 6.9 14.8 23.1 23.8 18.6 8.8 1.9
Navy 9 - 9 0.5 2.3 7.8 17.9 26.0 24.5 14.6 5.5 1.0
Lehigh 8 - 10 0.9 5.8 15.8 26.2 27.0 17.0 6.1 1.3
Lafayette 8 - 10 0.4 2.7 8.6 18.5 25.6 23.6 14.1 5.4 1.2
Boston University 9 - 9 0.8 5.2 13.9 22.8 25.9 19.3 8.8 2.7 0.4
Army 10 - 8 1.2 5.5 14.5 23.5 24.8 18.4 9.4 2.5 0.3
Holy Cross 6 - 12 2.8 12.6 22.6 25.5 20.0 10.8 4.5 1.1 0.1
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 5.3 17.0 26.2 25.2 16.3 7.7 1.8 0.4 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
American 77.3% 58.2 14.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colgate 15.0% 4.9 6.2 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 19.8% 8.2 8.0 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Navy 4.9% 1.2 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lehigh 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 1.5% 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boston University 3.1% 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Army 8.8% 2.8 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
American 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 16   0.1 0.6 4.9 14.4 80.0 0.0%
Colgate 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 15.5 83.3 0.0%
Bucknell 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.4 13.0 85.5 0.0%
Navy 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.2 11.3 88.5 0.0%
Lehigh 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 8.5 91.2 0.0%
Lafayette 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 8.1 91.7 0.0%
Boston University 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 7.6 92.3 0.0%
Army 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 8.0 91.9 0.0%
Holy Cross 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 2.3 97.7 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.9 98.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
American 20.0% 7.6% 16.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 16.8% 14.0% 10.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 14.5% 9.6% 9.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 11.5% 10.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 8.8% 7.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 8.3% 7.4% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 7.7% 6.8% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 8.1% 6.8% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 2.3% 2.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 64.2% 0.6 35.8 64.2
2nd Round 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0