Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
223 Colgate 19.0%   16   2 - 9 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 7 -3.2      -1.6 218 -1.6 220 64.4 296 -5.6 261 0.0 1
242 American 13.5%   4 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -4.6      -1.8 224 -2.8 259 60.5 351 -1.0 184 0.0 1
244 Lehigh 13.3%   2 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 15 10 - 8 -4.7      +0.1 168 -4.8 320 69.1 174 -6.2 274 0.0 1
246 Lafayette 13.1%   4 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 8 -4.8      -3.8 286 -0.9 196 64.4 297 -6.6 279 0.0 1
256 Boston University 11.5%   4 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 8 -5.2      -3.3 269 -1.9 230 62.4 338 -7.4 292 0.0 1
264 Bucknell 9.8%   4 - 7 0 - 0 13 - 18 9 - 9 -5.6      -6.0 336 +0.4 155 68.3 200 -6.6 278 0.0 1
299 Army 6.4%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -7.4      -3.2 265 -4.2 304 65.3 274 -5.8 266 0.0 1
302 Navy 5.3%   2 - 8 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 10 -7.7      -2.5 242 -5.2 328 68.1 207 -12.8 339 0.0 1
310 Holy Cross 4.1%   6 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -8.3      -1.7 219 -6.6 350 64.3 299 +0.7 157 0.0 1
313 Loyola Maryland 4.1%   4 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -8.5      -5.4 325 -3.2 278 66.6 243 -5.1 254 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 3.4 27.4 18.6 13.9 11.1 8.9 6.9 5.3 3.9 2.7 1.4
American 4.2 18.6 15.4 12.9 11.7 10.0 8.8 7.8 6.2 4.9 3.6
Lehigh 4.4 17.6 14.3 13.1 11.5 10.3 9.2 7.6 6.9 5.7 3.9
Lafayette 4.3 16.9 14.7 12.9 12.1 10.8 9.2 8.2 6.5 5.3 3.4
Boston University 4.6 14.4 13.7 13.0 11.8 10.7 9.9 8.8 7.6 5.8 4.3
Bucknell 4.9 12.2 12.0 12.2 11.7 11.2 10.4 9.6 8.5 7.3 4.9
Army 6.0 6.6 8.0 8.6 9.4 10.1 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 11.4
Navy 6.2 5.5 6.9 8.0 9.2 10.5 10.8 11.9 12.4 12.7 12.2
Holy Cross 6.6 3.8 5.5 6.8 8.0 9.5 10.8 11.9 13.6 14.7 15.3
Loyola Maryland 6.7 4.2 5.5 6.7 8.0 8.7 9.9 11.3 13.3 15.1 17.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.1 5.2 8.0 11.1 13.1 14.2 13.9 11.4 8.5 5.3 2.6 0.9 0.1
American 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.4 8.0 10.8 12.6 12.9 13.2 11.2 9.0 5.7 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.1
Lehigh 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.7 6.1 8.2 11.0 12.4 13.5 12.9 10.4 8.3 5.3 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1
Lafayette 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.5 5.5 8.6 11.0 13.3 13.8 13.2 10.6 8.1 5.2 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.0
Boston University 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.7 9.2 11.9 13.2 13.6 12.6 10.3 7.3 4.3 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1
Bucknell 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.9 7.5 10.4 12.5 13.9 13.4 11.7 8.7 6.2 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Army 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 5.5 8.4 11.1 12.7 13.6 12.7 10.6 8.0 5.8 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Navy 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.6 5.9 9.3 11.5 13.5 13.9 12.7 10.2 7.5 4.8 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Holy Cross 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.4 7.5 10.6 13.3 13.8 13.7 11.9 8.7 6.3 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.2 7.9 11.0 13.0 13.4 12.6 11.1 8.5 6.0 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 27.4% 18.2 6.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
American 18.6% 11.7 5.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 17.6% 11.0 4.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 16.9% 10.4 4.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Boston University 14.4% 8.7 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Bucknell 12.2% 7.4 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Army 6.6% 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Navy 5.5% 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 3.8% 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 4.2% 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.7 12.1 81.1 0.0%
American 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.0 7.7 86.5 0.0%
Lehigh 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.0 9.0 86.7 0.0%
Lafayette 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 9.9 86.9 0.0%
Boston University 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 9.1 88.5 0.0%
Bucknell 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 8.0 90.2 0.0%
Army 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 5.4 93.6 0.0%
Navy 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.1 94.7 0.0%
Holy Cross 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 3.4 95.9 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.6 95.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 19.0% 8.3% 15.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 13.5% 3.9% 11.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 13.3% 5.8% 10.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 13.1% 6.4% 10.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 11.5% 6.3% 8.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 9.8% 5.8% 7.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 6.4% 4.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 5.3% 4.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 4.1% 2.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 4.1% 2.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 76.0% 0.8 24.0 76.0
2nd Round 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0