Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
161 Navy 43.1%   15   19 - 6 13 - 1 -0.3      -2.2 234 +1.9 114 65.0 279 +1.3 140 +6.4 1
217 Colgate 24.3%   14 - 11 10 - 4 -3.1      -1.0 191 -2.1 239 67.4 216 -3.0 218 -3.2 2
257 American 10.9%   12 - 13 7 - 7 -5.5      -3.3 259 -2.3 247 67.9 205 -5.7 259 -7.5 4
274 Boston University 8.2%   11 - 15 7 - 7 -6.3      +0.8 145 -7.1 348 60.7 354 -8.1 300 -8.1 5
302 Lehigh 5.1%   10 - 15 8 - 6 -8.0      -4.5 291 -3.5 279 67.5 214 -8.2 302 -6.3 3
314 Loyola Maryland 3.4%   8 - 16 6 - 7 -9.1      -4.4 286 -4.7 312 69.7 147 -11.1 332 -8.3 6
321 Holy Cross 1.5%   7 - 17 4 - 9 -10.1      -5.4 310 -4.7 311 64.6 288 -10.0 321 -11.8 9
323 Lafayette 1.5%   7 - 19 5 - 9 -10.4      -6.9 339 -3.4 276 66.7 234 -11.5 334 -10.7 8
325 Bucknell 1.5%   8 - 19 5 - 9 -10.5      -6.8 338 -3.7 285 67.9 203 -9.6 316 -10.4 7
340 Army 0.4%   8 - 17 4 - 10 -12.2      -5.4 312 -6.8 344 67.3 222 -10.4 324 -12.5 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 11 217 Colgate 74 321 Holy Cross 70   
Wed, Feb 11 323 Lafayette 54 314 Loyola Maryland 68   
Wed, Feb 11 340 Army 68 274 Boston University 85   
Wed, Feb 11 257 American 82 302 Lehigh 90   
Sat, Feb 14 217 Colgate 80 161 Navy 84   
Sat, Feb 14 323 Lafayette 69 302 Lehigh 78   
Sat, Feb 14 257 American 75 340 Army 63   
Sat, Feb 14 274 Boston University 82 325 Bucknell 69   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Feb 15 321 Holy Cross 70 314 Loyola Maryland 74 65%   
Mon, Feb 16 274 Boston University 72 217 Colgate 73 51%   
Wed, Feb 18 321 Holy Cross 71 323 Lafayette 67 63%   
Wed, Feb 18 302 Lehigh 64 161 Navy 74 84%   
Wed, Feb 18 257 American 72 325 Bucknell 70 58%   
Wed, Feb 18 340 Army 72 314 Loyola Maryland 78 72%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.0 99.8 0.2
Colgate 2.0 1.7 97.4 0.9 0.1
American 3.8 2.5 46.7 27.5 14.8 6.7 1.4 0.4 0.0
Boston University 4.3 2.2 29.6 27.7 24.5 13.0 2.7 0.3 0.0
Lehigh 3.7 4.1 49.4 28.5 13.0 4.6 0.5 0.0
Loyola Maryland 5.2 0.9 9.6 18.8 28.1 27.1 10.1 4.0 1.3 0.1
Holy Cross 7.8 0.3 1.6 6.3 11.8 20.5 20.1 27.1 12.4
Lafayette 7.4 0.2 1.6 5.8 13.8 31.1 27.4 13.6 6.6
Bucknell 7.2 1.0 3.2 7.7 15.4 31.3 23.2 13.0 5.3
Army 8.9 0.1 0.6 3.6 9.7 16.7 28.2 41.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 16 - 2 22 - 7 0.5 4.4 19.7 40.1 35.3
Colgate 12 - 6 16 - 13 1.3 13.4 37.4 37.1 10.8
American 9 - 9 14 - 15 2.4 14.2 32.5 35.2 15.8
Boston University 9 - 9 13 - 17 5.1 24.2 36.9 26.6 7.1
Lehigh 10 - 8 12 - 17 9.0 33.7 38.5 16.5 2.3
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 10 - 19 4.3 19.3 35.1 28.3 11.5 1.6
Holy Cross 6 - 12 9 - 20 6.0 21.3 32.7 27.0 11.2 1.8
Lafayette 7 - 11 9 - 21 10.8 33.3 37.8 16.0 2.1
Bucknell 7 - 11 10 - 21 10.3 29.7 36.2 19.7 4.1
Army 5 - 13 9 - 20 18.7 39.3 30.7 10.1 1.3

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 99.8% 98.3 1.5
Colgate 1.7% 0.2 1.5
American
Boston University
Lehigh
Loyola Maryland
Holy Cross
Lafayette
Bucknell
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 43.1% 43.1% 0.0% 15   0.2 6.2 19.4 15.3 2.0 56.9 0.0%
Colgate 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 0.2 2.5 10.5 11.1 75.7 0.0%
American 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 9.2 89.1 0.0%
Boston University 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.4 7.8 91.8 0.0%
Lehigh 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.1 5.1 94.9 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 3.4 96.6 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5 98.5 0.0%
Lafayette 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5 98.5 0.0%
Bucknell 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5 98.6 0.0%
Army 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 85.2% 0.9 14.8 85.2
2nd Round 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 43.1% 0.1% 43.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 24.3% 3.2% 22.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 10.9% 6.3% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 8.2% 7.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 5.1% 4.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.4% 3.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 1.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%