Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
169 Navy 42.1%   15   18 - 6 12 - 1 -0.5      -2.6 244 +2.1 114 65.2 272 +0.5 155 +5.0 1
211 Colgate 25.6%   14 - 10 10 - 3 -2.9      -1.2 198 -1.7 229 67.4 217 -2.3 204 -2.1 2
261 American 10.3%   11 - 13 6 - 7 -5.7      -3.2 257 -2.5 251 68.0 201 -5.9 260 -7.9 4
274 Boston University 8.1%   10 - 15 6 - 7 -6.5      +0.7 150 -7.2 349 60.5 356 -8.4 300 -8.6 6
305 Lehigh 4.5%   9 - 15 7 - 6 -8.4      -4.9 303 -3.5 284 67.5 214 -8.9 304 -7.1 3
314 Loyola Maryland 3.3%   8 - 16 6 - 7 -9.1      -4.3 286 -4.8 312 69.7 149 -11.0 327 -8.2 5
320 Lafayette 2.0%   7 - 18 5 - 8 -9.9      -7.0 339 -2.9 263 66.9 234 -10.9 326 -9.7 7
321 Holy Cross 1.6%   7 - 17 4 - 9 -10.1      -5.3 309 -4.8 313 64.6 289 -10.0 320 -11.9 9
323 Bucknell 1.8%   8 - 18 5 - 8 -10.2      -6.7 336 -3.6 288 67.7 210 -9.4 311 -10.0 8
340 Army 0.6%   8 - 16 4 - 9 -12.1      -5.2 307 -6.9 342 67.4 216 -10.1 322 -12.3 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 11 211 Colgate 74 321 Holy Cross 70   
Wed, Feb 11 320 Lafayette 54 314 Loyola Maryland 68   
Wed, Feb 11 340 Army 68 274 Boston University 85   
Wed, Feb 11 261 American 82 305 Lehigh 90   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 14 211 Colgate 70 169 Navy 69 52%   
Sat, Feb 14 320 Lafayette 71 305 Lehigh 69 56%   
Sat, Feb 14 274 Boston University 75 323 Bucknell 68 74%   
Sat, Feb 14 261 American 78 340 Army 69 81%   
Sun, Feb 15 321 Holy Cross 70 314 Loyola Maryland 74 65%   
Mon, Feb 16 274 Boston University 72 211 Colgate 73 52%   
Wed, Feb 18 321 Holy Cross 70 320 Lafayette 67 61%   
Wed, Feb 18 305 Lehigh 63 169 Navy 74 85%   
Wed, Feb 18 261 American 72 323 Bucknell 71 56%   
Wed, Feb 18 340 Army 72 314 Loyola Maryland 78 72%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.1 94.9 5.1
Colgate 1.9 13.8 85.9 0.3 0.0
American 3.9 1.2 50.9 23.0 12.1 7.3 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.1
Boston University 4.5 1.2 31.3 25.2 18.7 13.1 6.7 3.1 0.9 0.1
Lehigh 4.1 1.0 40.5 26.9 15.8 9.6 4.3 1.8 0.1
Loyola Maryland 5.1 0.6 14.2 22.9 24.7 18.9 11.2 4.8 2.3 0.4
Lafayette 6.6 0.1 5.0 8.9 13.4 17.6 23.8 18.4 9.1 3.7
Holy Cross 8.0 0.5 2.9 6.2 8.8 15.2 18.5 31.7 16.3
Bucknell 6.8 0.0 4.7 8.1 11.7 15.2 21.3 21.5 12.5 4.9
Army 8.8 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.1 9.0 14.3 29.5 40.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 16 - 2 22 - 7 0.3 3.0 12.7 30.3 35.7 18.1
Colgate 13 - 5 17 - 12 0.8 6.9 24.0 36.4 25.2 6.7
American 9 - 9 14 - 15 0.7 5.4 17.9 31.8 31.4 12.9
Boston University 9 - 9 13 - 17 1.8 11.1 27.5 33.7 20.5 5.5
Lehigh 9 - 9 11 - 18 5.9 23.7 35.8 24.9 8.7 1.0
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 10 - 19 4.3 19.8 34.7 29.0 10.7 1.6
Lafayette 7 - 11 9 - 21 4.7 20.0 34.0 28.6 11.0 1.7
Holy Cross 6 - 12 9 - 20 6.0 21.8 33.4 26.2 11.0 1.7
Bucknell 7 - 11 10 - 21 7.0 23.9 33.5 24.6 9.6 1.3
Army 6 - 12 10 - 19 15.8 35.6 30.9 14.2 3.3 0.3

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 94.9% 86.2 8.7
Colgate 13.8% 5.1 8.7
American
Boston University
Lehigh
Loyola Maryland
Lafayette
Holy Cross
Bucknell
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 42.1% 42.1% 0.0% 15   0.2 4.1 15.6 18.4 3.9 57.9 0.0%
Colgate 25.6% 25.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 3.2 12.1 10.0 74.4 0.0%
American 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 8.7 89.7 0.0%
Boston University 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 7.6 91.9 0.0%
Lehigh 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.1 4.5 95.5 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 3.3 96.7 0.0%
Lafayette 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 98.0 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6 98.4 0.0%
Bucknell 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.8 98.2 0.0%
Army 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.5 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 85.9% 0.9 14.1 85.9
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 42.1% 0.4% 42.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 25.6% 2.7% 24.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 10.3% 5.8% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 8.1% 6.6% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.5% 4.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.3% 3.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 1.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%