Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
173 Navy 39.9%   16   17 - 6 11 - 1 -0.8      -2.5 237 +1.7 120 64.9 281 +0.1 156 +4.5 1
206 Colgate 25.9%   13 - 10 9 - 3 -2.7      -0.9 186 -1.8 233 67.4 218 -2.5 210 -2.7 2
254 American 13.0%   11 - 12 6 - 6 -5.2      -3.4 263 -1.8 234 67.4 221 -5.2 248 -7.1 3
282 Boston University 6.6%   9 - 15 5 - 7 -7.0      +0.1 158 -7.0 349 60.6 356 -8.8 306 -9.5 8
310 Lehigh 3.9%   8 - 15 6 - 6 -8.8      -5.6 315 -3.3 277 67.5 217 -9.5 316 -7.9 4
313 Lafayette 3.1%   7 - 17 5 - 7 -9.2      -6.2 326 -3.0 270 67.1 228 -10.2 322 -8.4 5
316 Loyola Maryland 2.7%   7 - 16 5 - 7 -9.7      -4.0 278 -5.7 328 70.0 141 -11.8 339 -9.3 6
320 Bucknell 2.3%   8 - 17 5 - 7 -9.8      -6.4 333 -3.4 282 67.5 216 -9.2 309 -9.5 7
323 Holy Cross 1.8%   7 - 16 4 - 8 -10.0      -5.0 305 -5.0 315 64.4 296 -9.4 312 -11.1 9
340 Army 0.9%   8 - 15 4 - 8 -11.4      -5.1 308 -6.3 338 67.7 211 -9.5 317 -11.4 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 7 254 American 73 173 Navy 82   
Sat, Feb 7 323 Holy Cross 76 310 Lehigh 67   
Sat, Feb 7 340 Army 60 313 Lafayette 63   
Sat, Feb 7 282 Boston University 78 316 Loyola Maryland 69   
Sat, Feb 7 320 Bucknell 59 206 Colgate 78   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Feb 9 320 Bucknell 65 173 Navy 71 72%   
Wed, Feb 11 313 Lafayette 75 316 Loyola Maryland 71 63%   
Wed, Feb 11 254 American 72 310 Lehigh 71 53%   
Wed, Feb 11 206 Colgate 74 323 Holy Cross 69 66%   
Wed, Feb 11 340 Army 72 282 Boston University 73 56%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.1 93.0 7.0 0.0
Colgate 1.9 16.4 81.1 2.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
American 3.5 0.0 7.6 61.6 15.9 7.4 4.0 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
Boston University 5.2 1.2 17.1 24.7 18.8 14.4 11.2 6.8 4.2 1.7
Lehigh 4.9 0.0 1.3 23.6 25.2 18.0 13.6 9.8 6.2 2.1 0.3
Lafayette 5.5 0.9 13.3 21.3 19.5 15.0 13.2 9.0 5.5 2.3
Loyola Maryland 6.3 0.4 5.4 15.1 17.9 16.8 16.7 13.0 9.3 5.5
Bucknell 6.4 0.2 7.2 13.4 15.3 15.8 16.6 15.4 10.8 5.3
Holy Cross 7.6 0.0 1.7 6.8 9.2 11.0 14.3 15.5 23.0 18.5
Army 8.3 0.0 1.0 3.1 5.4 7.5 11.7 15.1 25.0 31.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 15 - 3 21 - 8 0.2 1.4 6.6 18.6 31.2 30.1 12.0
Colgate 13 - 5 17 - 12 0.3 2.9 12.4 26.3 31.9 20.9 5.3
American 10 - 8 15 - 14 0.3 3.0 11.0 23.8 30.9 23.3 7.8
Boston University 8 - 10 12 - 18 1.2 7.2 19.8 30.0 26.1 13.2 2.4
Lehigh 8 - 10 10 - 19 4.3 17.2 30.0 28.4 15.4 4.2 0.5
Lafayette 8 - 10 10 - 20 1.6 10.0 22.6 31.7 23.5 9.2 1.4
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 10 - 19 3.7 16.2 29.9 29.0 15.8 4.6 0.6
Bucknell 7 - 11 10 - 21 4.8 18.3 30.4 26.9 14.6 4.2 0.7
Holy Cross 7 - 11 10 - 19 4.3 16.5 28.4 28.0 16.4 5.6 0.9
Army 6 - 12 10 - 19 8.2 25.2 31.9 22.9 9.4 2.2 0.3

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 93.0% 83.6 9.4 0.0
Colgate 16.4% 7.0 9.4 0.0
American 0.0% 0.0
Boston University
Lehigh 0.0% 0.0
Lafayette
Loyola Maryland
Bucknell
Holy Cross
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 39.9% 39.9% 0.0% 16   0.2 3.0 13.0 19.0 4.7 60.2 0.0%
Colgate 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.7 12.5 9.3 74.1 0.0%
American 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.3 10.3 87.0 0.0%
Boston University 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 6.3 93.4 0.0%
Lehigh 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 3.8 96.1 0.0%
Lafayette 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 3.1 96.9 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 2.7 97.4 0.0%
Bucknell 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 2.3 97.7 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.2 0.0%
Army 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 99.1 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 85.8% 0.9 14.2 85.8
2nd Round 0.9% 0.0 99.1 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 39.9% 0.6% 39.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 25.9% 2.2% 25.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 13.0% 6.1% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 6.6% 5.6% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 3.9% 3.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 3.1% 3.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.7% 2.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 2.3% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%