Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
195 Colgate 30.4%   16   5 - 7 1 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 5 -2.1      -0.4 181 -1.7 225 67.4 239 -1.6 189 +8.4 1
205 Navy 25.1%   7 - 5 1 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 -3.0      -2.6 239 -0.4 182 67.4 241 -2.9 212 +5.7 3
255 American 14.5%   6 - 6 1 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 -5.2      -2.5 238 -2.7 261 70.8 144 -2.4 206 +1.3 5
281 Boston University 9.8%   4 - 9 0 - 1 13 - 17 9 - 9 -6.5      +1.1 139 -7.6 353 60.4 359 -8.0 285 -15.2 6
311 Bucknell 4.1%   3 - 11 0 - 1 11 - 20 8 - 10 -8.9      -6.7 334 -2.2 240 68.1 221 -9.5 316 -21.7 9
317 Holy Cross 4.0%   4 - 8 1 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -9.5      -4.5 290 -5.0 329 64.8 303 -5.6 255 +3.3 4
318 Army 4.0%   5 - 7 1 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -9.6      -5.1 300 -4.5 316 69.0 193 -5.6 254 +8.1 2
324 Lafayette 3.2%   2 - 11 0 - 1 9 - 21 7 - 11 -9.8      -5.0 299 -4.9 325 68.4 215 -14.5 344 -20.3 8
326 Lehigh 2.8%   2 - 10 0 - 1 9 - 20 7 - 11 -10.1      -6.0 324 -4.1 303 67.5 234 -15.3 346 -27.8 10
335 Loyola Maryland 2.0%   2 - 10 0 - 1 9 - 20 7 - 11 -10.9      -3.2 264 -7.7 354 68.7 206 -17.9 352 -17.4 7




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 31 195 Colgate 85 324 Lafayette 77   
Wed, Dec 31 281 Boston University 77 205 Navy 82   
Wed, Dec 31 318 Army 85 326 Lehigh 78   
Wed, Dec 31 311 Bucknell 58 317 Holy Cross 65   
Wed, Dec 31 255 American 84 335 Loyola Maryland 69   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 3 255 American 73 281 Boston University 75 57%   
Sat, Jan 3 311 Bucknell 71 326 Lehigh 67 66%   
Sat, Jan 3 324 Lafayette 74 335 Loyola Maryland 76 57%   
Sat, Jan 3 317 Holy Cross 68 205 Navy 71 63%   
Sat, Jan 3 318 Army 71 195 Colgate 75 67%   
Wed, Jan 7 255 American 71 195 Colgate 77 72%   
Wed, Jan 7 317 Holy Cross 69 326 Lehigh 71 59%   
Wed, Jan 7 281 Boston University 73 324 Lafayette 72 51%   
Wed, Jan 7 318 Army 78 335 Loyola Maryland 73 66%   
Wed, Jan 7 311 Bucknell 65 205 Navy 73 80%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 2.1 48.7 24.0 12.7 6.9 3.7 2.1 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1
Navy 2.5 36.3 26.7 16.3 8.9 5.2 3.1 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.2
American 3.5 17.6 20.2 19.0 14.6 10.5 7.2 4.9 3.1 2.0 0.9
Boston University 4.6 7.4 12.8 16.5 15.8 13.7 11.0 9.0 6.5 4.5 2.8
Bucknell 6.2 2.1 4.9 8.2 11.2 13.1 13.7 13.5 12.9 11.3 9.1
Holy Cross 5.9 3.1 6.7 9.3 11.8 14.0 13.0 12.9 12.0 10.0 7.2
Army 5.7 3.3 6.8 10.4 12.5 14.0 13.1 12.8 11.4 9.7 5.9
Lafayette 6.7 1.2 3.5 6.1 9.2 11.3 12.7 14.1 14.4 14.1 13.5
Lehigh 7.1 1.1 2.8 4.9 7.3 9.6 11.7 13.9 15.0 16.1 17.6
Loyola Maryland 7.3 0.8 2.3 4.3 6.9 9.1 11.4 12.8 14.8 17.5 20.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 4.2 7.3 10.8 14.2 16.4 16.1 13.7 9.0 3.8 1.0
Navy 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.3 6.3 9.5 13.1 15.7 16.2 14.0 10.3 6.1 2.2 0.5
American 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.8 5.4 8.7 11.5 13.8 15.5 14.1 11.2 7.8 4.8 1.8 0.6 0.1
Boston University 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.8 6.2 9.7 12.8 14.8 14.7 13.2 10.2 6.6 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.1
Bucknell 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.6 9.6 12.7 14.7 15.5 13.8 10.5 6.7 3.7 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1
Holy Cross 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.7 8.2 12.1 14.4 14.6 13.8 11.7 7.7 5.2 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Army 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.2 7.9 11.4 13.8 15.1 14.4 12.2 8.4 5.5 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.5 8.0 11.2 14.7 15.5 14.5 11.7 8.3 4.8 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 7 - 11 0.2 0.8 2.9 6.0 9.7 13.0 15.1 15.1 13.4 9.8 6.6 4.1 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 0.2 1.2 3.3 6.5 10.8 14.2 15.3 14.6 12.3 9.4 6.1 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 48.7% 36.2 10.4 1.8 0.2 0.0
Navy 36.3% 25.2 9.1 1.7 0.2 0.0
American 17.6% 11.0 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0
Boston University 7.4% 3.7 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Bucknell 2.1% 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 3.1% 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Army 3.3% 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lehigh 1.1% 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 30.4% 30.4% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.3 1.5 5.6 12.2 10.9 69.6 0.0%
Navy 25.1% 25.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.9 9.1 12.4 74.9 0.0%
American 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.1 9.5 85.5 0.0%
Boston University 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 8.6 90.2 0.0%
Bucknell 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.1 4.0 95.9 0.0%
Holy Cross 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 3.7 96.0 0.0%
Army 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.2 3.8 96.0 0.0%
Lafayette 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 3.2 96.8 0.0%
Lehigh 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 2.8 97.2 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 98.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 30.4% 4.0% 28.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 25.1% 5.1% 22.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 14.5% 4.9% 11.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 9.8% 6.3% 6.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 4.1% 3.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 4.0% 3.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 4.0% 3.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 3.2% 3.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 2.8% 2.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.0% 1.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 80.8% 0.8 19.2 80.8
2nd Round 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0