Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
153 Navy 47.3%   15   21 - 6 15 - 1 +0.2      -2.3 233 +2.5 104 64.7 281 +1.5 138 +6.8 1
244 Colgate 18.1%   15 - 12 11 - 5 -4.4      -1.4 204 -3.0 267 67.4 213 -3.3 224 -3.8 2
246 American 13.9%   14 - 13 9 - 7 -4.6      -2.8 246 -1.8 231 67.1 227 -4.9 245 -6.3 4
261 Boston University 9.4%   12 - 16 8 - 8 -5.6      +1.5 126 -7.1 350 60.4 355 -8.1 293 -8.1 5
304 Lehigh 4.9%   11 - 16 9 - 7 -8.4      -5.1 306 -3.3 275 67.5 210 -8.0 291 -6.1 3
314 Loyola Maryland 2.6%   9 - 18 7 - 9 -9.4      -3.8 271 -5.6 326 70.5 126 -11.7 336 -9.5 6
321 Holy Cross 1.0%   8 - 19 5 - 11 -10.3      -4.9 297 -5.4 322 64.9 276 -10.5 324 -12.2 10
327 Lafayette 1.4%   8 - 20 6 - 10 -10.7      -6.5 330 -4.2 301 66.6 235 -11.3 333 -10.4 7
335 Bucknell 0.6%   8 - 21 5 - 11 -11.7      -7.8 347 -3.8 287 67.6 205 -10.9 328 -12.2 9
336 Army 0.7%   9 - 18 5 - 11 -11.9      -5.1 302 -6.8 345 67.3 218 -9.9 321 -11.5 8


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 21 244 Colgate 101 314 Loyola Maryland 98   
Sat, Feb 21 336 Army 63 153 Navy 81   
Sun, Feb 22 261 Boston University 67 304 Lehigh 70   
Sun, Feb 22 335 Bucknell 63 321 Holy Cross 72   
Sun, Feb 22 246 American 75 327 Lafayette 61   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 25 246 American 75 304 Lehigh 68 74%   
Wed, Feb 25 336 Army 73 335 Bucknell 70 61%   
Wed, Feb 25 261 Boston University 76 321 Holy Cross 68 77%   
Wed, Feb 25 244 Colgate 77 327 Lafayette 68 81%   
Wed, Feb 25 314 Loyola Maryland 68 153 Navy 75 74%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.0 100.0
Colgate 2.0 100.0
American 3.2 7.2 71.0 14.1 7.6
Boston University 4.4 21.3 20.3 56.7 1.7
Lehigh 3.6 3.0 41.0 50.5 5.5
Loyola Maryland 5.9 2.0 15.2 77.2 5.6
Holy Cross 8.2 9.2 8.9 42.8 29.2 9.9
Lafayette 6.9 1.8 35.0 40.7 19.5 3.1
Bucknell 8.6 4.3 13.2 32.8 20.0 29.8
Army 8.1 9.5 19.3 37.8 15.3 18.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 16 - 2 22 - 7 6.6 37.3 56.1
Colgate 12 - 6 16 - 13 14.9 65.1 20.0
American 10 - 8 15 - 14 9.8 41.5 48.7
Boston University 9 - 9 13 - 17 15.9 57.1 27.0
Lehigh 10 - 8 12 - 17 21.5 59.3 19.2
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 10 - 19 43.1 45.2 11.7
Holy Cross 6 - 12 9 - 20 32.5 53.2 14.3
Lafayette 7 - 11 9 - 21 29.4 57.6 13.1
Bucknell 6 - 12 9 - 22 43.5 44.8 11.7
Army 6 - 12 10 - 19 26.7 51.4 22.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 100.0% 100.0
Colgate
American
Boston University
Lehigh
Loyola Maryland
Holy Cross
Lafayette
Bucknell
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 47.3% 47.3% 0.0% 15   0.3 7.4 25.0 13.9 0.8 52.7 0.0%
Colgate 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 7.1 10.1 81.9 0.0%
American 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.3 3.8 9.8 86.1 0.0%
Boston University 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.1 9.3 90.6 0.0%
Lehigh 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 4.9 95.1 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 2.6 97.4 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Lafayette 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 1.4 98.6 0.0%
Bucknell 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Army 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7 99.4 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 86.1% 0.9 13.9 86.1
2nd Round 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 47.3% 0.0% 47.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 18.1% 3.5% 16.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 13.9% 4.8% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 9.4% 8.4% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.9% 4.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.6% 2.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%