Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
166 Navy 42.5%   16   18 - 6 12 - 1 -0.5      -2.5 240 +2.1 111 65.2 274 +0.5 153 +5.0 1
209 Colgate 24.8%   14 - 10 10 - 3 -2.8      -1.1 198 -1.7 228 67.4 218 -2.2 207 -2.1 2
258 American 10.8%   11 - 13 6 - 7 -5.6      -3.1 258 -2.5 251 68.0 202 -5.8 257 -7.8 4
275 Boston University 7.7%   10 - 15 6 - 7 -6.4      +0.7 148 -7.1 346 60.5 356 -8.3 300 -8.6 6
306 Lehigh 4.6%   9 - 15 7 - 6 -8.4      -4.9 304 -3.5 285 67.5 215 -8.8 305 -7.0 3
312 Loyola Maryland 3.5%   8 - 16 6 - 7 -9.0      -4.3 286 -4.8 310 69.7 150 -11.0 331 -8.2 5
319 Lafayette 2.1%   7 - 18 5 - 8 -10.0      -7.0 341 -2.9 263 66.9 234 -10.9 329 -9.6 7
321 Holy Cross 1.6%   7 - 17 4 - 9 -10.0      -5.2 311 -4.8 312 64.5 290 -9.9 319 -11.8 9
324 Bucknell 2.0%   8 - 18 5 - 8 -10.2      -6.7 336 -3.5 287 67.7 209 -9.4 313 -9.9 8
341 Army 0.5%   8 - 16 4 - 9 -12.0      -5.1 308 -6.9 342 67.5 216 -10.1 323 -12.2 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Feb 9 324 Bucknell 60 166 Navy 76   
Wed, Feb 11 209 Colgate 74 321 Holy Cross 70   
Wed, Feb 11 319 Lafayette 54 312 Loyola Maryland 68   
Wed, Feb 11 341 Army 68 275 Boston University 85   
Wed, Feb 11 258 American 82 306 Lehigh 90   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 14 209 Colgate 70 166 Navy 69 53%   
Sat, Feb 14 319 Lafayette 71 306 Lehigh 69 56%   
Sat, Feb 14 275 Boston University 74 324 Bucknell 68 74%   
Sat, Feb 14 258 American 78 341 Army 69 81%   
Sun, Feb 15 321 Holy Cross 70 312 Loyola Maryland 74 65%   
Mon, Feb 16 275 Boston University 72 209 Colgate 73 52%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.1 94.6 5.4
Colgate 1.9 14.1 85.7 0.3 0.0
American 4.0 1.1 49.7 23.2 12.8 7.4 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.1
Boston University 4.5 0.9 31.3 25.2 19.3 12.7 6.6 3.2 0.8 0.1
Lehigh 4.1 1.1 40.6 26.9 15.8 9.4 4.4 1.8 0.1
Loyola Maryland 5.1 0.7 13.7 23.1 25.8 18.4 10.8 5.0 2.2 0.4
Lafayette 6.6 0.1 4.6 8.8 14.0 17.7 23.5 17.5 9.9 3.8
Holy Cross 8.0 0.6 3.0 6.5 8.7 14.8 18.1 31.4 17.0
Bucknell 6.8 0.0 4.6 7.5 12.0 14.9 21.2 22.2 12.7 4.8
Army 8.8 0.1 0.8 2.2 4.1 8.9 14.6 29.4 40.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 16 - 2 22 - 7 0.3 3.1 13.2 29.9 36.5 17.0
Colgate 13 - 5 17 - 12 0.9 6.9 23.9 36.5 25.1 6.8
American 9 - 9 14 - 15 0.6 5.4 18.9 31.3 31.3 12.5
Boston University 9 - 9 13 - 17 1.7 11.3 27.2 33.5 21.2 5.1
Lehigh 9 - 9 11 - 18 6.3 23.2 34.8 26.0 8.5 1.2
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 10 - 19 4.5 19.2 34.8 29.0 10.9 1.6
Lafayette 7 - 11 9 - 21 5.0 19.9 33.5 28.8 11.1 1.7
Holy Cross 6 - 12 9 - 20 6.2 21.8 33.4 25.5 11.3 1.9
Bucknell 7 - 11 10 - 21 6.7 24.5 33.7 24.5 9.1 1.5
Army 6 - 12 10 - 19 16.0 34.3 31.4 14.4 3.6 0.3

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 94.6% 85.9 8.7
Colgate 14.1% 5.4 8.7
American
Boston University
Lehigh
Loyola Maryland
Lafayette
Holy Cross
Bucknell
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 42.5% 42.5% 0.0% 16   0.2 3.8 15.4 19.6 3.6 57.5 0.0%
Colgate 24.8% 24.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 3.3 12.5 8.7 75.2 0.0%
American 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.8 8.9 89.3 0.0%
Boston University 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.6 7.1 92.3 0.0%
Lehigh 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 4.6 95.4 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 3.5 96.5 0.0%
Lafayette 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 2.1 97.9 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6 98.4 0.0%
Bucknell 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 98.0 0.0%
Army 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 86.2% 0.9 13.8 86.2
2nd Round 1.2% 0.0 98.9 1.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 42.5% 0.3% 42.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 24.8% 1.8% 23.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 10.8% 5.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 7.7% 6.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.6% 4.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.5% 3.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 2.1% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.6% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 2.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%