Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
180 Navy 37.3%   16   15 - 6 9 - 1 -1.3      -3.0 249 +1.7 119 65.3 270 -0.5 172 +3.4 1
220 Colgate 23.3%   11 - 10 7 - 3 -3.4      -0.4 179 -2.9 261 67.4 218 -3.0 212 -3.5 2
244 American 15.4%   11 - 10 6 - 4 -4.7      -3.7 267 -1.0 207 68.4 195 -3.8 225 -5.1 3
286 Boston University 6.1%   8 - 15 4 - 7 -7.0      +0.2 157 -7.3 351 60.4 358 -9.1 309 -10.2 8
300 Lehigh 5.9%   8 - 13 6 - 4 -8.2      -5.6 318 -2.6 256 67.5 217 -8.4 297 -5.8 4
309 Lafayette 3.3%   6 - 16 4 - 6 -9.0      -5.1 306 -3.8 289 67.3 222 -10.6 330 -8.9 5
315 Bucknell 2.7%   7 - 16 4 - 6 -9.5      -5.8 323 -3.7 285 67.6 214 -9.7 322 -10.6 9
318 Loyola Maryland 3.1%   6 - 15 4 - 6 -9.6      -3.7 270 -5.9 335 69.7 155 -12.2 342 -9.3 6
326 Holy Cross 1.7%   6 - 16 3 - 8 -10.3      -5.4 309 -5.0 317 64.4 298 -9.7 323 -12.2 10
336 Army 1.2%   8 - 13 4 - 6 -11.2      -4.1 279 -7.2 350 67.8 211 -8.6 299 -9.7 7


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 31 220 Colgate 76 300 Lehigh 77   
Sat, Jan 31 244 American 65 309 Lafayette 67   
Sat, Jan 31 336 Army 69 326 Holy Cross 68   
Sat, Jan 31 286 Boston University 97 315 Bucknell 103   
Sat, Jan 31 318 Loyola Maryland 71 180 Navy 87   
Mon, Feb 2 286 Boston University 72 326 Holy Cross 64   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 4 300 Lehigh 73 318 Loyola Maryland 74 56%   
Wed, Feb 4 244 American 75 315 Bucknell 67 77%   
Wed, Feb 4 309 Lafayette 66 180 Navy 71 68%   
Wed, Feb 4 336 Army 70 220 Colgate 81 84%   
Sat, Feb 7 244 American 65 180 Navy 72 73%   
Sat, Feb 7 286 Boston University 77 318 Loyola Maryland 71 70%   
Sat, Feb 7 326 Holy Cross 70 300 Lehigh 69 53%   
Sat, Feb 7 336 Army 74 309 Lafayette 73 53%   
Sat, Feb 7 315 Bucknell 71 220 Colgate 75 62%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.1 88.7 9.2 1.9 0.2 0.0
Colgate 2.1 19.2 58.0 18.0 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
American 2.9 4.8 31.6 41.1 14.4 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Boston University 5.9 1.5 5.8 17.2 22.0 18.6 14.6 10.4 6.6 3.4
Lehigh 4.2 0.8 10.6 22.2 34.0 15.4 8.7 4.9 2.4 0.8 0.1
Lafayette 6.0 0.1 2.0 6.2 16.7 20.2 17.9 14.2 10.6 7.8 4.5
Bucknell 6.9 0.9 3.5 8.6 13.3 15.4 17.3 17.1 14.1 9.7
Loyola Maryland 6.5 0.0 0.9 3.6 12.8 17.3 17.2 17.0 14.4 10.2 6.8
Holy Cross 8.1 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.9 9.6 13.1 16.2 21.4 29.5
Army 7.3 0.4 1.7 6.6 11.9 14.3 16.3 17.7 19.1 12.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 15 - 3 21 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.9 15.2 24.9 26.6 19.1 6.2
Colgate 12 - 6 16 - 13 0.0 0.4 3.1 9.6 19.6 27.3 24.6 12.3 3.0
American 11 - 7 16 - 13 0.1 0.7 4.2 11.0 21.5 27.4 22.9 10.2 2.1
Boston University 8 - 10 12 - 18 0.6 3.8 11.9 23.1 27.7 21.5 9.7 1.8
Lehigh 9 - 9 11 - 18 1.2 7.4 17.8 25.1 24.8 15.4 6.6 1.6 0.2
Lafayette 8 - 10 10 - 20 0.9 5.1 13.3 22.5 25.6 19.3 10.3 2.7 0.4
Bucknell 7 - 11 10 - 21 2.4 11.7 21.5 26.9 20.1 11.7 4.4 1.2 0.1
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 9 - 20 1.4 6.9 18.1 26.0 23.9 15.6 6.3 1.5 0.2
Holy Cross 6 - 12 9 - 20 2.6 10.6 22.4 27.4 22.1 11.3 3.3 0.4
Army 7 - 11 11 - 18 3.5 15.0 25.1 27.0 18.3 8.1 2.6 0.5 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 88.7% 77.4 9.9 1.3 0.1
Colgate 19.2% 9.0 8.8 1.3 0.1
American 4.8% 1.3 2.3 1.1 0.1
Boston University
Lehigh 0.8% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
Lafayette 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bucknell
Loyola Maryland 0.0% 0.0
Holy Cross
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 37.3% 37.3% 0.0% 16   0.1 2.3 8.9 18.6 7.4 62.8 0.0%
Colgate 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 0.3 2.0 9.7 11.4 76.7 0.0%
American 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 3.6 11.1 84.7 0.0%
Boston University 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.2 6.0 93.9 0.0%
Lehigh 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 5.7 94.1 0.0%
Lafayette 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 3.3 96.7 0.0%
Bucknell 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 2.7 97.3 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 3.1 96.9 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 1.7 98.3 0.0%
Army 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2 98.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 84.5% 0.8 15.5 84.5
2nd Round 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 37.3% 1.1% 36.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 23.3% 3.5% 21.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 15.4% 5.4% 12.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 6.1% 5.3% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 5.9% 5.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 3.3% 3.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 2.7% 2.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.1% 3.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%