Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
155 Navy 45.8%   16   20 - 6 14 - 1 0.0      -2.5 239 +2.5 106 64.8 280 +1.3 140 +6.5 1
237 Colgate 18.4%   14 - 12 10 - 5 -4.2      -1.4 207 -2.9 258 67.4 219 -3.5 221 -4.0 2
251 American 13.0%   13 - 13 8 - 7 -5.0      -3.2 253 -1.8 231 67.7 210 -5.4 249 -7.0 4
256 Boston University 11.5%   12 - 15 8 - 7 -5.4      +1.5 129 -6.9 348 60.4 356 -7.7 289 -7.4 5
305 Lehigh 4.4%   10 - 16 8 - 7 -8.5      -5.2 309 -3.3 273 67.5 216 -8.4 302 -6.7 3
317 Loyola Maryland 2.6%   9 - 17 7 - 8 -9.6      -3.9 277 -5.7 325 69.7 140 -11.5 335 -9.1 6
322 Lafayette 1.8%   8 - 19 6 - 9 -10.3      -6.5 334 -3.8 283 67.1 225 -10.9 328 -9.8 7
326 Holy Cross 0.9%   7 - 19 4 - 11 -10.7      -4.9 300 -5.8 329 64.9 277 -11.2 332 -13.4 10
330 Bucknell 0.9%   8 - 20 5 - 10 -11.2      -7.4 342 -3.8 284 67.6 213 -10.2 325 -11.2 8
336 Army 0.7%   9 - 17 5 - 10 -11.6      -5.0 302 -6.6 340 67.3 220 -9.7 316 -11.3 9


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 18 251 American 75 330 Bucknell 57   
Wed, Feb 18 305 Lehigh 49 155 Navy 72   
Wed, Feb 18 326 Holy Cross 83 322 Lafayette 86   
Wed, Feb 18 336 Army 87 317 Loyola Maryland 77   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 21 237 Colgate 80 317 Loyola Maryland 72 79%   
Sat, Feb 21 336 Army 66 155 Navy 74 79%   
Sun, Feb 22 256 Boston University 73 305 Lehigh 72 51%   
Sun, Feb 22 330 Bucknell 72 326 Holy Cross 69 60%   
Sun, Feb 22 251 American 72 322 Lafayette 70 59%   
Wed, Feb 25 251 American 75 305 Lehigh 68 74%   
Wed, Feb 25 336 Army 73 330 Bucknell 71 60%   
Wed, Feb 25 237 Colgate 77 322 Lafayette 68 80%   
Wed, Feb 25 256 Boston University 76 326 Holy Cross 68 79%   
Wed, Feb 25 317 Loyola Maryland 68 155 Navy 74 74%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.0 100.0
Colgate 2.0 98.0 2.0
American 3.5 9.0 52.5 24.0 12.7 1.6 0.2
Boston University 3.8 5.5 38.6 29.5 23.8 2.6 0.1
Lehigh 4.0 4.0 33.0 30.7 28.7 3.5 0.2
Loyola Maryland 5.8 0.2 1.6 6.9 22.3 50.9 17.0 1.2
Lafayette 6.6 0.1 2.6 10.4 32.3 34.9 16.3 3.3 0.0
Holy Cross 9.2 2.0 3.5 18.1 26.4 50.1
Bucknell 8.0 2.9 10.1 19.2 37.2 18.3 12.4
Army 8.0 0.9 10.3 17.3 34.8 29.2 7.6

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 16 - 2 22 - 7 1.6 13.8 40.3 44.3
Colgate 12 - 6 16 - 13 3.7 25.6 55.0 15.8
American 10 - 8 15 - 14 4.9 24.4 42.3 28.3
Boston University 10 - 8 14 - 16 7.8 34.9 41.8 15.5
Lehigh 9 - 9 11 - 18 11.4 39.4 39.0 10.3
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 10 - 19 33.9 43.5 19.6 3.0
Lafayette 7 - 11 9 - 21 16.9 45.4 31.6 6.2
Holy Cross 5 - 13 8 - 21 20.7 44.3 29.3 5.8
Bucknell 6 - 12 9 - 22 18.1 42.9 31.3 7.8
Army 6 - 12 10 - 19 21.7 46.6 26.5 5.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 100.0% 100.0
Colgate
American
Boston University
Lehigh
Loyola Maryland
Lafayette
Holy Cross
Bucknell
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 45.8% 45.8% 0.0% 16   0.2 6.2 22.0 15.6 1.9 54.2 0.0%
Colgate 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 6.4 10.9 81.6 0.0%
American 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.2 2.5 10.2 87.1 0.0%
Boston University 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.8 10.7 88.5 0.0%
Lehigh 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 4.4 95.6 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 2.6 97.4 0.0%
Lafayette 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.2 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.1 0.0%
Bucknell 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.2 0.0%
Army 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7 99.3 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 85.3% 0.9 14.7 85.3
2nd Round 0.9% 0.0 99.1 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 45.8% 0.1% 45.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 18.4% 4.0% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 13.0% 6.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 11.5% 8.7% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.4% 4.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.6% 2.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 1.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%