Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
153 Navy 47.4%   15   21 - 6 15 - 1 +0.3      -2.3 235 +2.6 102 64.7 282 +1.5 139 +6.8 1
243 Colgate 17.7%   15 - 12 11 - 5 -4.4      -1.4 204 -3.0 268 67.4 213 -3.3 223 -3.8 2
244 American 13.9%   14 - 13 9 - 7 -4.5      -2.7 246 -1.8 230 67.1 225 -4.9 245 -6.3 4
261 Boston University 9.8%   12 - 16 8 - 8 -5.6      +1.6 126 -7.2 350 60.4 356 -8.1 295 -8.1 5
302 Lehigh 5.0%   11 - 16 9 - 7 -8.4      -5.1 305 -3.3 274 67.5 209 -8.0 292 -6.1 3
314 Loyola Maryland 2.5%   9 - 18 7 - 9 -9.5      -3.8 270 -5.7 326 70.5 125 -11.7 336 -9.5 6
322 Holy Cross 1.1%   8 - 19 5 - 11 -10.3      -4.9 297 -5.4 323 64.9 277 -10.6 324 -12.2 10
326 Lafayette 1.4%   8 - 20 6 - 10 -10.7      -6.5 329 -4.3 300 66.6 234 -11.3 333 -10.4 7
336 Bucknell 0.6%   8 - 21 5 - 11 -11.7      -7.9 347 -3.8 286 67.5 208 -10.9 328 -12.2 9
337 Army 0.6%   9 - 18 5 - 11 -11.8      -5.0 302 -6.7 345 67.2 219 -9.9 320 -11.5 8


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 21 243 Colgate 101 314 Loyola Maryland 98   
Sat, Feb 21 337 Army 63 153 Navy 81   
Sun, Feb 22 261 Boston University 67 302 Lehigh 70   
Sun, Feb 22 336 Bucknell 63 322 Holy Cross 72   
Sun, Feb 22 244 American 75 326 Lafayette 61   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 25 244 American 75 302 Lehigh 68 75%   
Wed, Feb 25 337 Army 73 336 Bucknell 70 61%   
Wed, Feb 25 261 Boston University 76 322 Holy Cross 68 77%   
Wed, Feb 25 243 Colgate 77 326 Lafayette 68 81%   
Wed, Feb 25 314 Loyola Maryland 68 153 Navy 75 74%   
Sat, Feb 28 244 American 74 261 Boston University 70 65%   
Sat, Feb 28 243 Colgate 66 153 Navy 74 77%   
Sat, Feb 28 322 Holy Cross 75 314 Loyola Maryland 73 58%   
Sat, Feb 28 337 Army 70 326 Lafayette 74 65%   
Sat, Feb 28 336 Bucknell 67 302 Lehigh 73 73%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.0 100.0
Colgate 2.0 100.0
American 3.2 7.2 71.2 14.1 7.6
Boston University 4.4 21.3 20.4 56.9 1.5
Lehigh 3.6 2.6 41.0 51.2 5.3
Loyola Maryland 5.9 2.1 15.0 77.8 5.1
Holy Cross 8.2 9.5 8.2 42.8 29.8 9.6
Lafayette 6.9 1.6 33.8 41.3 20.2 3.2
Bucknell 8.6 4.3 13.0 31.7 20.5 30.5
Army 8.1 10.1 19.4 38.3 15.5 16.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 17 - 1 23 - 6 6.3 36.4 57.3
Colgate 12 - 6 16 - 13 14.5 66.0 19.4
American 10 - 8 15 - 14 9.7 40.8 49.5
Boston University 9 - 9 13 - 17 15.9 57.1 26.9
Lehigh 10 - 8 12 - 17 21.2 59.6 19.2
Loyola Maryland 8 - 10 10 - 19 42.9 45.6 11.5
Holy Cross 6 - 12 9 - 20 33.1 52.9 14.1
Lafayette 7 - 11 9 - 21 30.0 57.9 12.1
Bucknell 6 - 12 9 - 22 45.2 43.3 11.5
Army 6 - 12 10 - 19 25.3 52.0 22.7

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 100.0% 100.0
Colgate
American
Boston University
Lehigh
Loyola Maryland
Holy Cross
Lafayette
Bucknell
Army


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 47.4% 47.4% 0.0% 15   0.2 7.3 24.9 14.2 0.9 52.6 0.0%
Colgate 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 7.0 10.0 82.3 0.0%
American 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.3 4.2 9.4 86.1 0.0%
Boston University 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.2 9.6 90.2 0.0%
Lehigh 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0 95.0 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 2.5 97.5 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1 98.9 0.0%
Lafayette 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 1.4 98.6 0.0%
Bucknell 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Army 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.5 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 86.4% 0.9 13.6 86.4
2nd Round 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 47.4% 0.0% 47.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 17.7% 3.3% 15.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 13.9% 4.5% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 9.8% 8.7% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 5.0% 4.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.5% 2.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%