Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
179 Navy 36.5%   16   15 - 6 9 - 1 -1.2      -2.9 249 +1.7 120 65.2 272 -0.5 171 +3.4 1
222 Colgate 23.3%   11 - 10 7 - 3 -3.4      -0.4 180 -2.9 264 67.4 219 -3.0 212 -3.4 2
244 American 16.4%   11 - 10 6 - 4 -4.7      -3.7 266 -1.1 207 68.3 197 -3.7 223 -5.1 3
290 Boston University 5.5%   7 - 15 3 - 7 -7.4      -0.1 166 -7.2 351 60.4 358 -9.8 325 -11.9 10
301 Lehigh 5.9%   8 - 13 6 - 4 -8.2      -5.6 314 -2.6 257 67.5 218 -8.4 297 -5.7 4
310 Lafayette 3.8%   6 - 16 4 - 6 -8.9      -5.1 305 -3.8 289 67.3 222 -10.6 330 -8.9 5
315 Bucknell 2.6%   7 - 16 4 - 6 -9.5      -5.8 322 -3.7 284 67.6 217 -9.7 323 -10.5 8
318 Loyola Maryland 2.8%   6 - 15 4 - 6 -9.6      -3.7 270 -5.9 336 69.7 155 -12.2 341 -9.4 6
323 Holy Cross 2.1%   6 - 15 3 - 7 -9.9      -5.3 309 -4.6 310 64.7 289 -8.9 309 -11.0 9
336 Army 1.2%   8 - 13 4 - 6 -11.2      -4.0 277 -7.1 350 67.8 214 -8.5 301 -9.7 7


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 31 222 Colgate 76 301 Lehigh 77   
Sat, Jan 31 244 American 65 310 Lafayette 67   
Sat, Jan 31 336 Army 69 323 Holy Cross 68   
Sat, Jan 31 290 Boston University 97 315 Bucknell 103   
Sat, Jan 31 318 Loyola Maryland 71 179 Navy 87   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Feb 2 290 Boston University 69 323 Holy Cross 70 52%   
Wed, Feb 4 301 Lehigh 73 318 Loyola Maryland 74 56%   
Wed, Feb 4 244 American 75 315 Bucknell 67 77%   
Wed, Feb 4 310 Lafayette 66 179 Navy 71 68%   
Wed, Feb 4 336 Army 70 222 Colgate 81 84%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Navy 1.1 88.9 8.8 2.0 0.2 0.0
Colgate 2.1 19.1 58.5 17.7 3.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
American 2.9 4.7 32.2 40.8 15.1 4.2 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Boston University 6.6 0.8 3.6 11.6 17.7 16.5 15.1 13.1 11.4 10.1
Lehigh 4.1 0.9 10.6 23.1 33.6 15.4 8.3 4.8 2.3 0.8 0.2
Lafayette 6.0 0.1 2.0 6.6 16.4 20.0 18.1 13.7 10.9 8.1 4.3
Bucknell 6.9 0.0 0.9 3.2 9.0 13.9 16.1 17.0 15.7 13.8 10.4
Loyola Maryland 6.5 0.0 0.9 3.8 13.0 17.2 17.5 16.6 13.0 10.6 7.5
Holy Cross 7.4 0.2 1.3 7.3 12.0 13.4 14.5 15.2 16.4 19.7
Army 7.3 0.0 0.4 1.9 6.7 12.0 14.6 16.1 16.4 17.7 14.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Navy 15 - 3 21 - 8 0.0 0.4 1.7 6.2 15.1 24.0 26.8 19.3 6.6
Colgate 12 - 6 16 - 13 0.1 0.6 2.8 9.1 20.7 27.0 24.5 12.6 2.6
American 11 - 7 16 - 13 0.1 0.9 3.8 11.4 21.5 27.4 22.2 10.7 2.2
Boston University 7 - 11 11 - 19 0.5 2.7 9.1 18.2 24.6 23.6 14.8 5.6 0.9
Lehigh 9 - 9 11 - 18 1.5 7.7 17.1 25.1 24.1 16.2 6.5 1.6 0.2
Lafayette 8 - 10 10 - 20 0.9 4.8 13.6 23.0 25.9 18.8 9.7 2.8 0.5
Bucknell 7 - 11 10 - 21 2.8 11.2 21.7 26.0 21.0 12.0 4.2 1.1 0.1
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 9 - 20 1.3 7.8 17.3 26.5 23.6 15.6 6.2 1.6 0.2
Holy Cross 7 - 11 10 - 19 1.3 6.2 15.8 23.4 24.7 17.1 8.6 2.4 0.4
Army 7 - 11 11 - 18 4.1 14.5 24.9 26.9 17.8 8.4 2.8 0.6 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Navy 88.9% 77.4 10.3 1.2 0.0 0.0
Colgate 19.1% 8.8 9.1 1.2 0.0 0.0
American 4.7% 1.2 2.5 1.0 0.0 0.0
Boston University
Lehigh 0.9% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 0.1% 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 0.0% 0.0
Holy Cross
Army 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Navy 36.5% 36.5% 0.0% 16   0.1 2.4 9.2 17.7 7.0 63.5 0.0%
Colgate 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 0.2 1.9 9.6 11.6 76.7 0.0%
American 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 4.2 11.8 83.6 0.0%
Boston University 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 5.4 94.5 0.0%
Lehigh 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.2 5.7 94.1 0.0%
Lafayette 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 3.8 96.2 0.0%
Bucknell 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 2.6 97.4 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 2.8 97.2 0.0%
Holy Cross 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 2.0 97.9 0.0%
Army 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 84.4% 0.8 15.6 84.4
2nd Round 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Navy 36.5% 1.0% 35.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 23.3% 3.4% 21.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 16.4% 5.4% 13.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 5.5% 4.9% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 5.9% 5.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 3.8% 3.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 2.6% 2.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.8% 2.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 2.1% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%