Army
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#297
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#253
Pace68.1#187
Improvement-0.2#203

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#278
First Shot-2.5#244
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#270
Layup/Dunks+0.2#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#77
Freethrows-3.6#352
Improvement-1.3#265

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#279
First Shot-3.4#284
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#207
Layups/Dunks-2.2#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#310
Freethrows+1.8#63
Improvement+1.1#126
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 8.9% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 43.6% 52.5% 24.6%
.500 or above in Conference 78.9% 87.5% 60.5%
Conference Champion 8.8% 11.3% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.4% 5.6%
First Four6.8% 7.2% 5.8%
First Round4.6% 5.1% 3.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 68.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 30 - 40 - 5
Quad 414 - 1014 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 280   Albany W 67-59 56%     1 - 0 -1.1 -8.1 +7.3
  Nov 08, 2024 2   @ Duke L 58-100 1%     1 - 1 -16.5 -2.8 -13.1
  Nov 15, 2024 211   @ Marist L 88-91 OT 24%     1 - 2 -3.2 +18.7 -21.8
  Nov 20, 2024 322   Fairleigh Dickinson W 84-70 68%     2 - 2 +1.6 +3.6 -2.3
  Nov 22, 2024 271   @ Manhattan L 79-80 36%     2 - 3 -4.7 +0.3 -5.0
  Dec 03, 2024 355   @ Le Moyne W 103-100 3OT 63%     3 - 3 -8.0 -5.6 -3.2
  Dec 08, 2024 122   Cornell L 84-103 24%     3 - 4 -19.2 +5.5 -24.2
  Dec 13, 2024 124   @ George Washington L 60-75 13%     3 - 5 -10.4 -5.2 -6.4
  Dec 22, 2024 313   Binghamton L 68-78 64%     3 - 6 -21.2 -12.5 -8.6
  Dec 29, 2024 202   Texas San Antonio W 78-75 39%     4 - 6 -1.5 -6.8 +5.0
  Jan 02, 2025 239   @ Colgate L 59-71 30%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -14.1 -15.1 +0.7
  Jan 05, 2025 294   @ Boston University L 63-71 40%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -12.8 -5.2 -8.2
  Jan 08, 2025 325   Loyola Maryland W 74-72 69%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -10.5 +1.1 -11.4
  Jan 11, 2025 267   @ Lehigh W 74-69 35%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +1.5 -3.4 +4.7
  Jan 15, 2025 281   Lafayette W 70-68 57%     7 - 8 3 - 2 -7.2 +3.0 -9.9
  Jan 18, 2025 294   Boston University W 68-62 59%     8 - 8 4 - 2 -3.8 +4.9 -7.6
  Jan 22, 2025 319   @ Holy Cross W 76-71 48%     9 - 8 5 - 2 -1.8 -4.5 +2.5
  Jan 26, 2025 263   Navy L 53-66 53%     9 - 9 5 - 3 -21.2 -18.2 -4.4
  Jan 29, 2025 239   Colgate W 84-72 49%     10 - 9 6 - 3 +4.9 +11.3 -5.6
  Feb 01, 2025 233   @ American L 68-71 29%     10 - 10 6 - 4 -4.7 +2.5 -7.5
  Feb 05, 2025 319   Holy Cross W 74-70 68%    
  Feb 08, 2025 251   Bucknell W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 325   @ Loyola Maryland W 72-71 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 263   @ Navy L 69-73 33%    
  Feb 19, 2025 233   American L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 23, 2025 251   @ Bucknell L 68-73 31%    
  Feb 25, 2025 281   @ Lafayette L 67-70 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 267   Lehigh W 72-71 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.9 4.4 2.0 0.3 8.8 1st
2nd 0.1 3.5 10.4 4.6 0.5 0.0 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 10.4 5.2 0.4 17.6 3rd
4th 0.2 7.7 9.0 0.9 0.0 17.8 4th
5th 0.0 2.5 10.5 1.7 0.0 14.8 5th
6th 0.3 6.7 3.4 0.1 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 4.4 0.2 6.5 7th
8th 0.3 2.4 0.7 3.3 8th
9th 0.6 0.9 1.4 9th
10th 0.3 0.1 0.4 10th
Total 1.2 5.5 14.5 23.5 24.8 18.4 9.4 2.5 0.3 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 97.1% 0.3    0.3 0.0
13-5 79.2% 2.0    1.3 0.7 0.0
12-6 47.1% 4.4    1.1 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 10.5% 1.9    0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1
10-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 2.8 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.3% 11.8% 11.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 2.5% 12.0% 12.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 2.2
12-6 9.4% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 0.1 1.2 8.1
11-7 18.4% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.0 2.2 16.2
10-8 24.8% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.0 2.2 22.6
9-9 23.5% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5 22.1
8-10 14.5% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.6 13.9
7-11 5.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.2 5.4
6-12 1.2% 1.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.0 91.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%