Army
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.8 #333
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 #316
Pace 67.6 #222
Improvement +0.1 #182

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #253 D+ D C D+ B+
Defense #356 D D- F C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #251 1.09 #266 -2.7 #278
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #348 0.57 #357 -4.9 #358
Three Pointers 54% #9 0.96 #253 +5.1 #37
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #249 -2.5 #249
Freethrows 15.4 #277 72% #215 11.1 #272
Second Chance 29.5% #220 0.90 #336 0.27 #286
Turnovers 16.5% #176
Total Offense -2.9 #253

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #170 1.32 #341 -3.6 #299
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #225 0.68 #62 +1.3 #90
Three Pointers 42% #151 1.07 #262 -1.7 #259
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #299 -3.9 #301
Freethrows 17.1 #179 78% #348 13.3 #228
Second Chance 30.8% #195 1.26 #355 0.39 #323
Turnovers 12.9% #347
Total Defense -7.9 #356

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #42 0.6% #219
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.1% #295 6.9% #306
Possession Length 18.7 #309 16.8 #99
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #335 0.19 #251
Improvement +3.4 #26 -3.4 #337

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.8% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.4% 5.2% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 9.3% 25.2% 6.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 38.3% 19.3% 41.4%
First Four1.3% 2.2% 1.2%
First Round0.7% 1.5% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Away) - 13.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 410 - 1211 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 131 @St. Thomas L 76 - 83 8% -11  0 - 1 -2 +6 B- F B+ -9 B+ F F
 Tue, Nov 11 3 Duke L 59 - 114 1% -23  0 - 2 -36 -10 D- C D -21 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 168 Harvard L 52 - 75 25% -9  0 - 3 -27 -17 F D+ F -12 F B- C
 Tue, Nov 18 187 @Cornell L 73 - 86 13% -6  0 - 4 -12 -13 F F B- +3 C B+ B-
 Fri, Nov 21 160 @Marist L 65 - 76 11% -4  0 - 5 -8 +3 B F C+ -11 D F F
 Tue, Nov 25 308 East Texas A&M L 67 - 84 41% -10  0 - 6 -25 -6 F F C- -19 F C- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 348 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 81 - 73 44% +2  1 - 6 -1 +8 F B- A -9 A+ F F
 Sat, Nov 29 327 Manhattan W 81 - 78 OT 60% +3  2 - 6 -10 -5 C- F F -5 B+ F D
 Tue, Dec 2 72 George Washington L 70 - 84 8% -5  2 - 7 -9 -1 A F B- -9 A+ F C
 Fri, Dec 12 275 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 63 - 60 24% +5  3 - 7 -0 -9 F F D- +9 B A- F
 Tue, Dec 23 362 Binghamton W 95 - 85 OT 78% +4  4 - 7 -9 +4 A- C- F -14 F B F
 Wed, Dec 31 307 @Lehigh W 85 - 78 OT 30% +3  5 - 7 1 - 0 +2 +2 D+ A F -1 C- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 199 Colgate L 69 - 76 31% -3  5 - 8 1 - 1 -13 +2 C- A B- -16 D+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 7 324 Loyola Maryland L 76 - 84 OT 59% -3  5 - 9 1 - 2 -21 -8 F D A+ -13 C F D
 Sat, Jan 10 285 @Boston University L 91 - 100 26% -8  5 - 10 1 - 3 -13 +14 B- B- B- -28 F D- D
 Wed, Jan 14 320 @Holy Cross L 75 - 82 35% -7  5 - 11 1 - 4 -14 +2 D- D C+ -16 F A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 224 American L 67 - 78 35% -7  5 - 12 1 - 5 -18 -1 C D+ B -18 F F A+
 Wed, Jan 21 319 @Bucknell W 87 - 84 OT 35% +10  6 - 12 2 - 5 -4 +13 A- D+ C- -17 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 194 @Navy L 66 - 78 14%
 Wed, Jan 28 307 Lehigh W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Jan 31 320 Holy Cross W 74 - 72 58%
 Wed, Feb 4 199 @Colgate L 71 - 82 15%
 Sat, Feb 7 314 Lafayette W 75 - 73 55%
 Wed, Feb 11 285 Boston University L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 14 224 @American L 69 - 79 17%
 Wed, Feb 18 324 @Loyola Maryland L 76 - 80 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 194 Navy L 69 - 75 30%
 Wed, Feb 25 319 Bucknell W 74 - 72 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 314 @Lafayette L 72 - 76 33%
Totals 10 - 19 6 - 12 -11 -3 D+ D C -8 D D- F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.6 1.4 0.1 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.4 2.9 0.3 8.5 5th
6th 0.3 5.4 5.8 0.6 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.1 3.9 8.4 1.6 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.7 10.1 4.0 0.1 17.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 9.5 6.8 0.5 19.4 9th
10th 1.0 4.3 9.2 6.9 1.1 0.0 22.5 10th
Total 1.0 4.5 11.7 19.2 22.3 19.3 12.8 6.3 2.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 12.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.6% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 0.1 0.5
10-8 2.4% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.1 2.2
9-9 6.3% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.3 6.0
8-10 12.8% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 12.5
7-11 19.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 19.1
6-12 22.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 22.2
5-13 19.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 19.0
4-14 11.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.6
3-15 4.5% 4.5
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%