Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.3 #275
Expected Predictive Rating -6.6 #274
Pace 66.7 #240
Improvement +0.5 #156

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #211 C F C+ D D+
Defense #312 D- C- F A+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #246 1.20 #126 -0.5 #197
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #107 0.75 #176 +1.2 #110
Three Pointers 40% #204 0.99 #218 -1.1 #216
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #187 -0.3 #186
Freethrows 15.1 #291 72% #221 10.8 #289
Second Chance 22.7% #348 1.01 #236 0.23 #340
Turnovers 15.6% #129
Total Offense -1.5 #211

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #18 1.24 #281 -6.1 #353
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #159 0.71 #108 +0.3 #170
Three Pointers 33% #351 1.16 #337 +1.7 #121
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #309 -4.0 #307
Freethrows 11.7 #5 65% #3 7.6 #4
Second Chance 29.1% #119 1.16 #306 0.34 #231
Turnovers 13.0% #346
Total Defense -4.8 #312

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #264 1.0% #259
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.4% #169 7.2% #310
Possession Length 16.9 #127 17.9 #265
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #177 0.13 #57
Improvement +2.3 #64 -1.8 #289

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.7% 20.3% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 87.3% 92.8% 75.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 97.3% 87.9%
Conference Champion 25.3% 30.8% 13.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four12.1% 12.6% 11.0%
First Round12.4% 13.8% 9.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Umass Lowell (Home) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 416 - 717 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 73 @Dayton L 71 - 77 6% -4  0 - 1 +5 +10 C+ A- B- -6 D F D+
 Tue, Nov 11 360 @Morgan St. W 81 - 79 73% +6  1 - 1 -11 -1 A+ F F -10 D+ F F
 Sun, Nov 16 326 Wagner W 71 - 70 OT 75% -1  2 - 1 -12 -16 F A- F +3 B+ B B-
 Wed, Nov 19 72 @George Washington L 52 - 89 6% -24  2 - 2 -26 -19 F F D -6 F A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 355 Delaware St. W 71 - 57 84% +8  3 - 2 -3 -1 C+ F C+ -1 C+ C F
 Wed, Dec 3 93 @Georgetown L 81 - 90 9% -11  3 - 3 -0 +16 B+ B- A+ -16 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 319 @Bucknell W 73 - 66 52% +4  4 - 3 +0 +5 B- F D- -4 C+ B- D-
 Tue, Dec 9 201 Buffalo L 79 - 83 47% +1  4 - 4 -10 +5 B C- C+ -15 F B- C
 Fri, Dec 12 333 Army L 60 - 63 76% -5  4 - 5 -17 -19 F F C+ +2 B+ B+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 74 @South Florida L 69 - 94 7% -15  4 - 6 -14 -2 D C D+ -12 F D- F
 Mon, Dec 29 364 @Coppin St. W 93 - 59 84% +18  5 - 6 +17 +10 D A+ C+ +6 C A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 8 341 Maine W 69 - 62 78% +6  6 - 6 1 - 0 -8 +1 C- F A+ -7 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 323 New Hampshire W 75 - 74 74% -3  7 - 6 2 - 0 -12 +7 A+ F A+ -19 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 343 @Bryant L 74 - 79 OT 59% -1  7 - 7 2 - 1 -14 +1 B F D -14 F F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 362 @Binghamton W 78 - 60 73% +9  8 - 7 3 - 1 +5 +8 B- F A+ -1 C- C F
 Thu, Jan 22 336 NJIT W 87 - 74 77% +14  9 - 7 4 - 1 -1 +9 B D A+ -10 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 309 Umass Lowell W 79 - 74 69%
 Thu, Jan 29 204 @Vermont L 69 - 76 27%
 Sat, Jan 31 305 @Albany L 73 - 74 46%
 Thu, Feb 5 362 Binghamton W 78 - 65 88%
 Thu, Feb 12 341 @Maine W 67 - 65 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 323 @New Hampshire W 72 - 71 52%
 Thu, Feb 19 204 Vermont L 72 - 73 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 305 Albany W 76 - 71 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 343 Bryant W 74 - 66 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 309 @Umass Lowell L 76 - 77 47%
 Tue, Mar 3 336 @NJIT W 74 - 72 57%
Totals 15 - 12 10 - 6 -6 -1 C F C+ -5 D- C- F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.7 4.8 8.9 7.5 3.0 0.5 25.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 11.5 14.5 6.4 1.2 35.6 2nd
3rd 0.9 7.9 7.8 1.6 0.0 18.3 3rd
4th 0.2 3.9 5.4 0.8 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.8 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.0 9.3 16.0 20.9 20.9 15.3 8.6 3.0 0.5 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
14-2 100.0% 3.0    2.8 0.2
13-3 86.5% 7.5    5.7 1.8
12-4 57.9% 8.9    4.6 3.9 0.4
11-5 22.9% 4.8    1.1 2.5 1.1 0.0
10-6 3.5% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 25.3% 25.3 14.7 8.6 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.5% 37.9% 37.9% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 3.0% 35.5% 35.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 1.9
13-3 8.6% 30.2% 30.2% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.1 6.0
12-4 15.3% 25.6% 25.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.7 11.4
11-5 20.9% 19.9% 19.9% 16.0 0.1 4.0 16.8
10-6 20.9% 16.9% 16.9% 16.0 0.1 3.5 17.3
9-7 16.0% 12.6% 12.6% 16.0 0.0 2.0 14.0
8-8 9.3% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.8 8.4
7-9 4.0% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.3 3.7
6-10 1.3% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.1 1.2
5-11 0.3% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 15.9 81.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.8 30.6 55.6 13.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%