Dayton
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#41
Expected Predictive Rating+16.8#20
Pace62.6#334
Improvement+0.9#121

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#23
First Shot+7.3#24
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#145
Layup/Dunks+5.2#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#134
Freethrows+1.8#81
Improvement+0.9#101

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#96
First Shot+2.2#104
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#113
Layups/Dunks+2.8#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#124
Freethrows+0.3#169
Improvement+0.0#185
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 1.5% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 4.1% 7.1% 2.0%
Top 6 Seed 10.5% 17.1% 6.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.5% 66.2% 48.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 36.0% 49.1% 27.6%
Average Seed 8.7 8.2 9.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.7% 97.5%
Conference Champion 42.0% 46.6% 38.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.4% 7.6% 7.3%
First Round51.7% 62.3% 44.4%
Second Round26.1% 33.9% 20.7%
Sweet Sixteen8.5% 11.7% 6.3%
Elite Eight3.0% 4.3% 2.2%
Final Four1.0% 1.4% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Neutral) - 40.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 23 - 4
Quad 25 - 27 - 6
Quad 39 - 217 - 8
Quad 48 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 336   St. Francis (PA) W 87-57 98%     1 - 0 +15.9 +6.8 +8.9
  Nov 09, 2024 61   Northwestern W 71-66 68%     2 - 0 +11.1 +5.1 +6.2
  Nov 13, 2024 291   Ball St. W 77-69 96%     3 - 0 -1.8 -2.0 +0.1
  Nov 20, 2024 200   New Mexico St. W 74-53 92%     4 - 0 +16.2 +11.3 +8.2
  Nov 25, 2024 22   North Carolina L 90-92 38%     4 - 1 +12.1 +14.2 -1.9
  Nov 26, 2024 5   Iowa St. L 84-89 21%     4 - 2 +14.4 +21.3 -7.0
  Nov 27, 2024 11   Connecticut W 85-67 28%     5 - 2 +35.0 +22.8 +13.6
  Dec 03, 2024 295   Western Michigan W 77-69 96%     6 - 2 -1.9 +12.0 -12.5
  Dec 07, 2024 243   Lehigh W 86-62 95%     7 - 2 +16.3 +16.3 +2.6
  Dec 14, 2024 17   Marquette W 71-63 45%     8 - 2 +20.1 +12.7 +8.5
  Dec 17, 2024 108   UNLV W 66-65 82%     9 - 2 +2.0 +4.5 -2.3
  Dec 20, 2024 26   Cincinnati L 68-70 41%    
  Dec 31, 2024 165   La Salle W 80-66 91%    
  Jan 04, 2025 137   @ George Washington W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 08, 2025 190   @ Massachusetts W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 15, 2025 87   George Mason W 70-63 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 106   Loyola Chicago W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 21, 2025 199   @ Duquesne W 72-62 81%    
  Jan 24, 2025 97   Saint Joseph's W 76-68 78%    
  Jan 28, 2025 89   @ St. Bonaventure W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 31, 2025 144   @ Saint Louis W 79-72 75%    
  Feb 04, 2025 122   Davidson W 77-66 85%    
  Feb 07, 2025 58   Virginia Commonwealth W 70-66 66%    
  Feb 12, 2025 169   @ Fordham W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 199   Duquesne W 75-59 92%    
  Feb 21, 2025 106   @ Loyola Chicago W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 26, 2025 98   @ Rhode Island W 76-73 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 214   Richmond W 78-62 93%    
  Mar 04, 2025 144   Saint Louis W 82-69 88%    
  Mar 07, 2025 58   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 67-69 44%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 7.5 12.5 11.4 6.2 1.9 42.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 6.5 7.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.5 5.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.3 0.1 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 5.1 8.0 12.0 15.8 17.7 16.7 12.1 6.3 1.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
17-1 99.4% 6.2    6.0 0.2
16-2 94.2% 11.4    9.6 1.8 0.1
15-3 75.0% 12.5    7.7 4.1 0.6 0.0
14-4 42.3% 7.5    2.8 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 14.4% 2.3    0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.0% 42.0 28.3 10.3 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.9% 99.0% 57.0% 42.1% 3.7 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
17-1 6.3% 96.5% 50.4% 46.1% 5.5 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 92.9%
16-2 12.1% 89.1% 44.5% 44.5% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.3 80.3%
15-3 16.7% 76.9% 37.1% 39.8% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.2 3.4 1.9 0.1 3.9 63.2%
14-4 17.7% 60.2% 33.0% 27.2% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.5 3.9 0.2 7.0 40.6%
13-5 15.8% 44.4% 26.8% 17.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.9 0.4 8.8 24.0%
12-6 12.0% 31.1% 20.8% 10.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 0.4 8.3 13.0%
11-7 8.0% 19.8% 14.9% 4.9% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.3 6.4 5.8%
10-8 5.1% 13.0% 11.0% 1.9% 11.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 4.4 2.2%
9-9 2.5% 10.1% 9.1% 1.0% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.3 1.1%
8-10 1.3% 5.8% 5.6% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.2%
7-11 0.5% 3.1% 3.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.2% 3.8% 3.8% 12.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 55.5% 30.5% 25.1% 8.7 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 2.8 3.7 4.4 5.6 7.9 11.1 14.3 1.8 44.5 36.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 2.5 18.1 34.5 27.7 15.8 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 4.0 2.4 16.5 15.3 31.8 18.8 11.8 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 4.3 2.3 4.7 20.9 27.9 26.7 10.5 4.7 1.2 1.2