Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.8 #73
Expected Predictive Rating +8.5 #70
Pace 68.0 #213
Improvement -0.2 #197

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #133 C C B- A+ B
Defense #32 C+ B- A+ B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #69 1.31 #40 +5.7 #21
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #297 0.51 #363 -3.9 #343
Three Pointers 42% #155 0.92 #291 -1.3 #228
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #165 +0.5 #165
Freethrows 23.5 #2 75% #96 17.7 #3
Second Chance 27.0% #285 1.15 #54 0.31 #194
Turnovers 15.4% #116
Total Offense +1.3 #133

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #285 1.07 #74 +3.6 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #63 0.71 #109 -1.0 #265
Three Pointers 40% #202 1.09 #283 -1.3 #237
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #136 +1.3 #136
Freethrows 15.9 #112 69% #39 10.9 #80
Second Chance 30.8% #194 0.94 #53 0.29 #106
Turnovers 23.2% #3
Total Defense +6.5 #32

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #56 -1.5% #61
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.1% #198 -1.1% #161
Possession Length 16.7 #112 18.0 #285
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #76 0.13 #50
Improvement -2.9 #329 +2.7 #41

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 13.3% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.3% 3.0% 1.0%
Average Seed 10.9 10.9 11.1
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 97.9% 90.0%
Conference Champion 4.6% 6.0% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 2.0% 0.8%
First Round10.8% 12.2% 7.9%
Second Round2.5% 3.0% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Away) - 67.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 24 - 25 - 8
Quad 38 - 313 - 11
Quad 49 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 344 Canisius W 88 - 48 97% +21  1 - 0 +25 +19 B A+ A+ +10 B D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 275 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77 - 71 94% +4  2 - 0 -3 +2 C B- C- -5 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 49 @Cincinnati L 62 - 74 28% -9  2 - 1 +2 -8 F F A+ +11 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 269 Bethune-Cookman W 91 - 82 93% +6  3 - 1 -0 +15 A+ B F -15 C F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 102 @Marquette W 77 - 71 OT 51% +5  4 - 1 +14 -2 A+ C F +15 A- B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 346 NC Central W 74 - 55 97% +19  5 - 1 +4 -2 F C- A+ +7 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 93 Georgetown W 84 - 79 OT 58% +7  6 - 1 +11 +8 C+ C C +3 F A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 12 BYU L 79 - 83 15% +0  6 - 2 +15 +10 A+ D C- +5 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 135 East Tennessee St. W 88 - 71 81% +10  7 - 2 +16 +10 A+ C+ C +5 D+ C- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 16 Virginia L 73 - 86 17% -2  7 - 3 +5 +5 B+ F A +1 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 350 North Florida W 84 - 61 97% +21  8 - 3 +8 +0 B+ F C+ +8 A+ D A
 Tue, Dec 16 111 Florida St. W 97 - 69 75% +13  9 - 3 +29 +14 B- D+ A+ +12 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 94 Liberty L 61 - 64 69% +2  9 - 4 -0 -3 F D C +2 B- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 193 Fordham W 63 - 56 88% +5  10 - 4 1 - 0 +2 -3 F A+ B- +6 B- A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 268 @Loyola Chicago W 70 - 68 84% -6  11 - 4 2 - 0 -1 -2 F C- A- +2 D- C A
 Tue, Jan 6 72 George Washington W 79 - 72 61% -1  12 - 4 3 - 0 +12 +6 F A+ B +6 C- C A+
 Tue, Jan 13 118 @Duquesne W 71 - 65 58% +5  13 - 4 4 - 0 +12 +7 B F C+ +5 A- A+ C
 Fri, Jan 16 268 Loyola Chicago W 78 - 51 93% +6  14 - 4 5 - 0 +18 +1 B- F F +17 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 197 @La Salle L 64 - 67 76% -9  14 - 5 5 - 1 -3 -3 F B F +0 C C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 159 @Saint Joseph's W 71 - 66 67%
 Tue, Jan 27 122 Rhode Island W 72 - 64 78%
 Fri, Jan 30 28 @Saint Louis L 70 - 80 18%
 Tue, Feb 3 136 St. Bonaventure W 76 - 67 80%
 Fri, Feb 6 55 @Virginia Commonwealth L 71 - 77 29%
 Sun, Feb 15 137 Davidson W 72 - 63 80%
 Wed, Feb 18 86 @George Mason L 68 - 70 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 118 Duquesne W 79 - 71 77%
 Tue, Feb 24 28 Saint Louis L 73 - 77 36%
 Fri, Feb 27 72 @George Washington L 75 - 78 39%
 Tue, Mar 3 120 @Richmond W 73 - 71 58%
 Fri, Mar 6 55 Virginia Commonwealth W 75 - 74 51%
Totals 21 - 10 12 - 6 +8 +1 C C B- +7 C+ B- A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 4.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.4 7.3 6.6 1.7 0.1 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.1 9.6 7.5 1.4 0.1 21.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 10.4 8.3 1.5 0.0 23.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 6.9 6.3 1.0 0.0 15.5 5th
6th 0.3 3.2 4.2 0.8 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 7.9 14.9 20.6 21.3 16.5 9.5 3.8 0.9 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 91.2% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
15-3 52.8% 2.0    0.8 1.0 0.1
14-4 15.1% 1.4    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 1.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 81.0% 23.8% 57.1% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.0%
16-2 0.9% 59.6% 22.2% 37.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 48.1%
15-3 3.8% 37.1% 21.6% 15.5% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.0 2.4 19.7%
14-4 9.5% 23.2% 17.6% 5.6% 10.8 0.1 0.4 1.7 0.1 7.3 6.8%
13-5 16.5% 15.9% 13.5% 2.5% 10.9 0.0 0.3 2.2 0.1 13.8 2.8%
12-6 21.3% 11.2% 10.5% 0.6% 11.2 0.1 1.9 0.4 18.9 0.7%
11-7 20.6% 7.1% 6.8% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 19.1 0.3%
10-8 14.9% 4.1% 4.1% 11.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 14.3
9-9 7.9% 4.0% 4.0% 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.6
8-10 3.4% 2.1% 2.1% 11.9 0.0 0.1 3.3
7-11 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.7% 9.6% 2.1% 10.9 88.3 2.3%