Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
43 Virginia Commonwealth 41.9%   11   6 - 3 0 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 5 +11.6      +4.2 79 +7.4 17 73.2 95 +9.9 65 0.0 1
46 Saint Louis 39.4%   7 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 6 13 - 5 +11.1      +5.0 64 +6.0 35 77.5 32 +12.2 48 0.0 1
62 George Washington 19.8%   7 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 6 +9.1      +8.6 24 +0.6 152 74.4 66 +6.4 91 0.0 1
66 George Mason 19.9%   8 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 7 12 - 6 +8.6      +5.0 66 +3.6 71 63.1 331 +12.0 51 0.0 1
67 Dayton 22.3%   7 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 6 +8.5      +3.5 88 +5.1 48 69.7 180 +12.4 47 0.0 1
104 Richmond 4.7%   6 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +4.5      +2.8 100 +1.7 121 69.8 179 +8.7 75 0.0 1
110 Rhode Island 3.6%   7 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +3.9      +1.4 128 +2.5 93 70.1 169 +6.4 92 0.0 1
111 St. Bonaventure 3.4%   7 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +3.8      +1.1 136 +2.7 92 65.3 292 +13.5 41 0.0 1
135 Duquesne 1.2%   4 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 +1.7      +0.7 145 +1.0 135 78.3 19 -3.2 214 0.0 1
137 Davidson 1.6%   6 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.6      +1.1 135 +0.5 155 65.3 290 +10.5 61 0.0 1
184 Saint Joseph's 0.4%   3 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 16 6 - 12 -1.7      -2.4 234 +0.7 143 72.5 107 -2.3 202 0.0 1
211 Fordham 0.1%   3 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 16 5 - 13 -3.1      -1.8 219 -1.3 210 62.5 346 -7.1 275 0.0 1
229 La Salle 0.1%   2 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 22 5 - 13 -4.0      -2.9 246 -1.1 203 65.1 297 -9.5 303 0.0 1
259 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   2 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 24 4 - 14 -5.5      -1.8 218 -3.7 300 64.7 304 -13.1 337 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 150 Cornell 81 66 George Mason 99   
Tue, Dec 2 225 Brown 56 110 Rhode Island 66   
Tue, Dec 2 342 Army 70 62 George Washington 84   
Tue, Dec 2 135 Duquesne 79 118 William & Mary 83   
Tue, Dec 2 309 Central Michigan 72 259 Loyola Chicago 83   
Tue, Dec 2 67 Dayton 88 115 East Tennessee St. 71   
Tue, Dec 2 143 Loyola Marymount 70 46 Saint Louis 91   
Wed, Dec 3 88 Belmont 76 104 Richmond 84   
Thu, Dec 4 137 Davidson 79 363 The Citadel 63   
Fri, Dec 5 228 Samford 57 43 Virginia Commonwealth 83   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 66 George Mason 72 70 Virginia Tech 74 59%   
Sat, Dec 6 67 Dayton 70 26 Virginia 76 72%   
Sat, Dec 6 72 Providence 84 110 Rhode Island 77 74%   
Sat, Dec 6 62 George Washington 92 118 William & Mary 83 80%   
Sat, Dec 6 184 Saint Joseph's 77 157 Temple 78 56%   
Sat, Dec 6 259 Loyola Chicago 70 247 Princeton 68 58%   
Sat, Dec 6 256 Drexel 66 229 La Salle 67 55%   
Sat, Dec 6 135 Duquesne 80 222 Stony Brook 71 79%   
Sat, Dec 6 215 Buffalo 69 111 St. Bonaventure 73 65%   
Sat, Dec 6 220 Old Dominion 69 104 Richmond 80 85%   
Sat, Dec 6 211 Fordham 72 301 Holy Cross 64 77%   
Sun, Dec 7 137 Davidson 65 42 St. Mary's 72 75%   
Sun, Dec 7 309 Central Michigan 65 46 Saint Louis 87 97%   
Tue, Dec 9 78 McNeese St. 71 110 Rhode Island 70 51%   
Tue, Dec 9 364 Coppin St. 63 184 Saint Joseph's 81 95%   
Wed, Dec 10 103 New Mexico 73 43 Virginia Commonwealth 83 83%   
Wed, Dec 10 59 Boise St. 79 135 Duquesne 69 84%   
Wed, Dec 10 176 Colgate 66 111 St. Bonaventure 74 78%   
Wed, Dec 10 287 Delaware 69 62 George Washington 88 95%   
Wed, Dec 10 362 Fairleigh Dickinson 65 211 Fordham 79 91%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Virginia Commonwealth 3.0 32.9 20.4 14.6 10.9 7.7 5.6 3.6 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Saint Louis 2.8 34.3 21.6 14.8 10.6 6.8 4.9 3.2 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
George Washington 3.7 19.3 19.1 16.6 13.4 10.2 7.9 5.7 3.5 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
George Mason 4.2 16.5 15.2 14.7 13.3 11.0 9.0 7.1 5.4 3.5 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
Dayton 4.4 13.9 14.1 14.6 13.8 12.5 10.4 7.8 5.6 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1
Richmond 6.9 3.3 5.6 6.9 8.5 9.8 10.9 11.4 11.8 10.7 8.4 6.1 3.9 1.9 0.7
Rhode Island 6.6 3.5 5.5 7.3 9.8 10.6 12.0 12.1 11.7 9.8 7.2 5.5 3.0 1.6 0.6
St. Bonaventure 6.7 2.9 5.3 7.3 9.2 10.8 12.0 12.1 11.3 9.8 7.8 5.7 3.3 1.8 0.5
Duquesne 8.7 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.5 5.9 7.7 8.9 11.1 12.7 13.0 11.8 9.6 6.0 2.9
Davidson 7.6 1.6 3.2 4.8 6.8 9.0 10.5 11.3 12.7 11.8 10.4 7.8 5.5 3.1 1.4
Saint Joseph's 9.8 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.3 3.3 5.2 6.7 9.3 11.8 14.3 15.1 13.3 9.9 7.0
Fordham 10.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 3.8 6.5 8.6 11.8 15.8 17.9 16.7 13.0
La Salle 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.1 6.3 9.6 14.2 18.1 21.9 20.2
Loyola Chicago 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 4.0 6.4 11.0 16.9 25.3 32.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.7 6.9 10.3 13.5 16.1 16.6 14.4 9.4 4.6 1.1
Saint Louis 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.3 6.2 9.2 13.5 16.7 17.1 15.0 10.0 4.9 1.3
George Washington 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.5 6.3 9.6 13.2 16.3 16.5 13.9 10.1 5.3 2.0 0.3
George Mason 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.3 8.2 11.6 13.9 14.7 14.6 11.5 8.0 4.3 1.7 0.3
Dayton 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.7 9.3 12.6 15.0 15.9 14.2 10.9 6.7 3.0 1.0 0.2
Richmond 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.9 7.6 10.5 13.2 14.2 13.6 11.3 8.9 5.7 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.0 6.6 10.1 12.7 14.7 14.1 12.9 9.6 6.5 3.6 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
St. Bonaventure 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.3 6.9 10.2 12.7 14.4 14.1 12.6 9.7 6.3 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.2 7.0 10.6 12.9 13.9 13.7 11.8 9.1 6.6 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Davidson 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.9 6.2 9.9 13.0 14.0 14.5 12.4 9.9 6.9 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 6 - 12 0.3 1.4 3.7 7.3 10.6 14.0 15.2 14.6 12.3 8.8 5.7 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Fordham 5 - 13 1.0 3.4 7.7 12.2 15.2 16.3 14.4 11.6 8.2 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
La Salle 5 - 13 1.7 6.0 11.4 15.7 17.1 15.6 12.5 8.6 5.6 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 4 - 14 3.2 10.0 16.5 19.8 17.7 13.6 9.0 5.3 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 32.9% 21.0 8.8 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 34.3% 22.0 8.9 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 19.3% 10.6 6.2 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Mason 16.5% 9.7 4.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Dayton 13.9% 7.5 4.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Richmond 3.3% 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 3.5% 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 2.9% 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Davidson 1.6% 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 41.9% 25.1% 16.8% 11   0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.3 5.6 9.9 15.7 1.3 0.0 58.1 22.4%
Saint Louis 39.4% 23.5% 15.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.7 2.1 3.1 4.9 8.6 15.4 1.4 0.0 60.6 20.8%
George Washington 19.8% 14.4% 5.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 3.6 10.1 2.3 0.1 0.0 80.2 6.3%
George Mason 19.9% 12.4% 7.5% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.8 4.0 9.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 80.1 8.5%
Dayton 22.3% 11.9% 10.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.6 5.2 10.4 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.7 11.8%
Richmond 4.7% 3.8% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.3 0.9%
Rhode Island 3.6% 3.0% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 96.4 0.6%
St. Bonaventure 3.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 96.6 0.8%
Duquesne 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8 0.0%
Davidson 1.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.4 0.2%
Saint Joseph's 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 41.9% 7.2% 38.6% 17.9% 5.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Saint Louis 39.4% 7.3% 36.0% 16.7% 4.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
George Washington 19.8% 3.0% 18.3% 7.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 19.9% 4.2% 17.8% 6.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 22.3% 5.6% 19.5% 7.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 4.7% 0.6% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 3.6% 0.5% 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 3.4% 0.6% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 1.6% 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 50.3 41.5 7.6 0.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 0.0 60.4 35.1 4.4 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 50.4% 0.6 49.6 42.9 7.2 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 14.2% 0.1 85.8 13.7 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 4.9% 0.0 95.1 4.8 0.1
Final Four 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3 0.0
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1