Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
37 Saint Louis 58.9%   11   11 - 1 0 - 0 25 - 5 14 - 4 +13.1      +7.0 44 +6.1 36 78.3 19 +13.1 44 0.0 1
47 Virginia Commonwealth 34.9%   9 - 4 0 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 5 +11.1      +5.8 60 +5.3 44 72.3 103 +8.0 77 0.0 1
68 Dayton 13.6%   9 - 4 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +8.1      +2.9 103 +5.2 47 69.3 190 +7.5 83 0.0 1
77 George Washington 9.8%   8 - 4 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 6 +7.2      +6.5 49 +0.7 140 73.9 64 +3.7 117 0.0 1
88 George Mason 8.4%   10 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 11 - 7 +6.3      +3.4 95 +2.9 93 63.9 319 +11.3 54 0.0 1
104 Richmond 3.9%   9 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +4.5      +1.9 121 +2.6 100 71.0 137 +6.6 87 0.0 1
116 St. Bonaventure 2.6%   10 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +3.3      +2.0 120 +1.3 129 65.9 276 +9.4 64 0.0 1
119 Rhode Island 2.1%   9 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 9 +3.1      +1.1 135 +2.0 109 68.0 224 +4.1 109 0.0 1
121 Duquesne 1.7%   6 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 +2.5      +1.9 122 +0.6 144 78.2 20 -2.4 199 0.0 1
140 Davidson 1.1%   7 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 10 +1.4      +0.5 149 +0.9 136 65.3 292 +4.4 104 0.0 1
188 Saint Joseph's 0.2%   6 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -1.8      -3.7 270 +1.8 114 69.7 179 -2.6 205 0.0 1
193 Fordham 0.2%   6 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 16 6 - 12 -2.1      -2.5 235 +0.4 146 62.3 347 -7.3 276 0.0 1
233 La Salle 0.0%   3 - 9 0 - 0 7 - 23 4 - 14 -4.4      -3.6 268 -0.8 192 65.4 289 -7.8 288 0.0 1
270 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   4 - 9 0 - 0 8 - 23 4 - 14 -5.9      -0.7 182 -5.3 334 64.9 301 -10.4 320 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 68 Dayton 61 102 Liberty 64   
Sat, Dec 20 270 Loyola Chicago 80 86 Santa Clara 78   
Sat, Dec 20 312 Le Moyne 81 116 St. Bonaventure 92   
Sat, Dec 20 104 Richmond 80 355 The Citadel 56   
Sun, Dec 21 88 George Mason 86 329 Loyola Maryland 79   
Sun, Dec 21 233 La Salle 50 1 Michigan 102   
Sun, Dec 21 335 New Hampshire 79 37 Saint Louis 93   
Mon, Dec 22 230 Coastal Carolina 68 188 Saint Joseph's 62   
Mon, Dec 22 205 Northeastern 77 119 Rhode Island 85   
Mon, Dec 22 140 Davidson 61 17 Kansas 90   
Mon, Dec 22 193 Fordham 65 340 New Haven 47   
Mon, Dec 22 347 Canisius 59 121 Duquesne 103   
Mon, Dec 22 344 Rider 79 47 Virginia Commonwealth 100   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 28 239 Charleston Southern 70 104 Richmond 83 87%   
Sun, Dec 28 88 George Mason 81 240 Penn 67 90%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 1.9 56.5 21.5 10.6 5.4 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 2.9 29.7 24.9 16.6 10.5 7.4 4.7 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Dayton 4.4 11.3 15.6 16.0 15.1 12.6 9.7 7.1 5.2 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
George Washington 4.3 11.1 17.1 17.3 14.8 12.0 9.3 6.9 4.9 3.1 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
George Mason 5.2 7.9 12.4 13.3 13.1 12.1 10.7 9.0 7.4 5.5 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2
Richmond 6.5 2.9 6.2 8.2 10.3 11.4 11.7 11.6 10.5 9.2 7.8 5.4 3.0 1.4 0.4
St. Bonaventure 6.8 2.3 5.1 7.5 9.9 10.9 11.6 11.5 11.5 9.9 7.8 5.9 3.8 1.9 0.6
Rhode Island 7.0 1.9 4.5 7.2 9.3 10.5 11.3 12.1 11.5 10.5 8.6 6.2 3.9 1.9 0.6
Duquesne 8.0 1.1 2.8 4.5 6.2 7.8 9.2 10.3 11.5 11.9 11.5 10.0 7.6 4.1 1.7
Davidson 7.7 1.2 2.8 5.1 6.7 8.8 10.5 11.4 12.1 11.5 10.7 8.5 6.2 3.3 1.3
Saint Joseph's 9.8 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.5 5.1 6.9 9.2 11.4 14.0 15.1 13.8 10.2 6.3
Fordham 10.4 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.3 7.8 9.7 13.1 15.5 17.2 14.2 8.1
La Salle 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.4 5.3 8.6 12.8 17.7 24.7 23.1
Loyola Chicago 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.9 5.1 9.4 15.9 27.4 36.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.6 8.5 13.8 18.4 20.3 17.3 10.4 3.3
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.7 10.7 14.5 17.5 17.6 13.7 8.5 3.8 0.8
Dayton 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 5.9 9.4 13.3 16.1 16.7 14.5 9.8 5.8 2.4 0.8 0.1
George Washington 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.5 8.7 12.8 15.7 16.6 15.0 10.9 6.5 2.8 0.7 0.1
George Mason 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.6 8.7 11.6 14.3 15.0 14.0 11.1 7.5 4.2 1.8 0.6 0.1
Richmond 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.6 10.0 13.0 15.1 15.4 12.9 9.4 6.2 3.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 4.0 7.2 10.8 14.1 15.1 14.5 12.6 8.7 5.5 3.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.4 7.8 11.6 14.0 15.6 14.6 12.0 8.5 5.0 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.1
Duquesne 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.0 7.8 11.5 13.7 14.9 14.1 11.3 8.4 5.3 2.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Davidson 8 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.7 6.4 10.3 13.6 15.4 14.9 12.5 9.4 6.1 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 7 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.5 10.5 13.8 16.2 15.5 13.0 9.1 5.8 3.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fordham 6 - 12 0.3 1.6 4.3 8.9 13.3 15.6 16.3 14.2 10.7 7.3 4.1 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
La Salle 4 - 14 1.6 6.0 11.7 16.6 18.1 16.2 12.5 8.4 4.7 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 4 - 14 3.1 9.9 17.0 20.5 18.8 14.0 8.6 4.7 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 56.5% 41.4 11.8 2.7 0.4 0.1
Virginia Commonwealth 29.7% 18.3 8.6 2.4 0.4 0.1
Dayton 11.3% 5.9 3.8 1.4 0.3 0.1
George Washington 11.1% 5.4 3.9 1.5 0.3 0.1
George Mason 7.9% 3.9 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
Richmond 2.9% 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 2.3% 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 1.9% 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 1.1% 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Davidson 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Fordham 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 58.9% 38.0% 20.9% 11   0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.8 7.6 13.9 22.1 1.7 0.0 41.1 33.7%
Virginia Commonwealth 34.9% 24.4% 10.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.3 7.6 18.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 65.1 13.8%
Dayton 13.6% 10.6% 3.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.9 8.0 2.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 86.4 3.3%
George Washington 9.8% 9.1% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 5.2 3.2 0.3 0.0 90.2 0.8%
George Mason 8.4% 6.7% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 4.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 91.6 1.8%
Richmond 3.9% 3.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 96.1 0.4%
St. Bonaventure 2.6% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 97.4 0.2%
Rhode Island 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 97.9 0.1%
Duquesne 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.3 0.0%
Davidson 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 58.9% 9.8% 54.6% 27.2% 7.9% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
Virginia Commonwealth 34.9% 6.3% 32.0% 12.6% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Dayton 13.6% 2.0% 12.5% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 9.8% 0.5% 9.5% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 8.4% 1.3% 7.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 3.9% 0.3% 3.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 2.6% 0.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 2.1% 0.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 65.0 32.8 2.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.3 0.0 73.4 25.6 1.0 0.0
2nd Round 45.3% 0.5 54.7 41.4 3.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 12.6% 0.1 87.4 12.3 0.3
Elite Eight 3.9% 0.0 96.1 3.9 0.0
Final Four 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1