Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
57 Virginia Commonwealth 29.3%   11   1 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +9.6      +4.1 71 +5.4 41 70.0 132 -1.2 281 0.0 1
59 Dayton 30.3%   1 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 6 +9.2      +4.6 59 +4.6 55 65.3 269 -2.3 293 0.0 1
70 Saint Louis 19.7%   1 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 11 - 7 +7.7      +4.6 60 +3.1 84 69.4 151 +5.8 55 0.0 1
79 George Washington 15.8%   1 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +6.9      +3.9 74 +3.0 88 67.5 216 +2.5 93 0.0 1
89 George Mason 11.8%   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 10 - 8 +5.7      +0.7 144 +5.0 47 63.1 320 +6.0 53 0.0 1
108 Loyola Chicago 7.2%   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +4.0      +3.0 93 +1.1 126 67.0 227 +6.5 47 0.0 1
110 Duquesne 5.6%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +3.7      +1.2 128 +2.5 102 63.8 304 -0.4 274 0.0 1
115 St. Bonaventure 5.7%   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +3.2      +0.2 156 +3.0 89 62.7 325 +16.5 5 0.0 1
116 Saint Joseph's 5.1%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +3.1      +1.2 125 +1.9 110 69.5 149 +3.0 87 0.0 1
128 Rhode Island 3.1%   1 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 8 - 10 +1.9      +1.0 135 +0.9 133 74.5 45 -2.7 299 0.0 1
129 Richmond 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 10 +1.8      +1.0 134 +0.7 141 61.3 347 0.0 121 0.0 1
140 Davidson 2.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 11 +0.9      +0.7 145 +0.2 160 65.3 268 0.0 121 0.0 1
170 Fordham 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 6 - 12 -0.8      +0.8 142 -1.6 215 72.9 70 0.0 121 0.0 1
193 La Salle 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -2.1      -1.0 202 -1.1 196 70.9 117 0.0 121 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Virginia Commonwealth 3.7 28.9 17.2 12.9 9.7 7.6 6.0 4.8 3.8 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.3
Dayton 4.2 23.6 16.3 12.6 10.5 8.1 7.0 5.8 4.8 3.8 2.8 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.4
Saint Louis 4.8 17.0 14.1 12.4 10.9 8.9 8.2 6.5 5.7 5.0 3.9 3.1 2.1 1.4 0.7
George Washington 5.1 14.1 13.3 12.1 11.0 9.4 8.3 7.4 6.4 5.2 4.2 3.5 2.6 1.7 0.9
George Mason 6.0 11.1 10.4 9.8 9.6 8.9 8.7 8.0 6.9 6.7 5.7 5.1 4.3 3.3 1.7
Loyola Chicago 7.2 5.4 6.6 7.4 8.1 8.4 8.4 8.7 8.3 8.2 7.6 7.3 6.8 5.5 3.4
Duquesne 7.3 5.6 6.6 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.8 8.2 8.1 7.4 6.7 5.5 3.9
St. Bonaventure 7.3 5.0 6.3 7.5 8.1 8.3 8.9 8.6 8.7 8.2 7.8 7.4 6.6 5.3 3.4
Saint Joseph's 7.3 5.3 6.6 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.1 7.2 6.5 5.5 4.0
Rhode Island 8.0 3.6 5.0 5.9 6.6 7.2 7.9 8.3 9.0 8.5 8.3 8.4 8.1 7.4 5.8
Richmond 8.5 3.2 4.4 5.0 5.6 6.4 7.0 7.5 7.9 8.4 8.9 9.5 9.3 9.6 7.4
Davidson 8.7 2.6 3.5 4.9 5.9 5.7 6.5 7.1 7.9 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.2 10.0 8.7
Fordham 9.8 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.6 4.6 5.2 6.2 7.1 8.2 9.4 10.4 11.8 13.2 14.3
La Salle 10.7 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.9 4.2 5.5 6.7 8.0 9.9 12.9 16.4 23.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.2 4.8 6.9 8.8 11.1 12.2 13.0 12.3 10.4 7.7 4.1 1.5
Dayton 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 4.1 6.0 8.1 9.9 11.4 13.1 12.6 11.0 9.0 5.9 3.0 0.9
Saint Louis 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.6 5.6 7.7 9.4 11.1 12.3 12.6 11.2 9.4 6.7 3.9 1.8 0.5
George Washington 11 - 7 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.2 6.2 8.2 10.4 11.5 12.5 12.1 10.6 8.5 5.6 3.5 1.4 0.3
George Mason 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.3 6.2 7.9 9.6 10.9 11.8 11.5 9.9 8.4 6.5 4.6 2.3 1.0 0.2
Loyola Chicago 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 4.3 6.8 8.8 10.4 11.4 11.9 11.3 10.1 7.6 5.7 3.7 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1
Duquesne 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.0 6.4 9.0 10.4 12.0 11.5 10.8 9.3 7.7 5.6 3.9 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
St. Bonaventure 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.4 6.7 8.8 10.6 11.6 12.3 11.3 10.0 7.3 5.6 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1
Saint Joseph's 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 4.4 6.8 8.8 10.8 11.8 11.3 11.2 9.3 7.9 5.6 3.8 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
Rhode Island 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.1 8.6 9.8 11.4 12.2 11.4 10.1 8.0 6.2 4.7 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Richmond 8 - 10 0.3 1.4 3.1 5.1 7.7 9.5 11.1 11.4 11.0 10.6 8.8 7.0 5.3 3.4 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Davidson 7 - 11 0.5 1.6 3.3 5.8 8.0 10.0 11.6 11.7 10.9 9.6 8.5 6.9 4.9 3.1 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Fordham 6 - 12 0.9 2.8 5.5 8.4 10.6 11.8 12.5 11.9 9.8 8.5 6.3 4.7 3.0 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
La Salle 6 - 12 2.1 5.6 8.8 11.4 12.7 12.7 12.0 9.9 7.7 6.1 4.4 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 28.9% 19.9 6.9 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Dayton 23.6% 15.4 6.3 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Louis 17.0% 10.6 4.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 14.1% 8.4 4.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
George Mason 11.1% 6.5 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 5.4% 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 5.6% 2.9 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 5.0% 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 5.3% 2.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Rhode Island 3.6% 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Richmond 3.2% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Davidson 2.6% 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Fordham 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.8% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 29.3% 21.2% 8.1% 11   0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.2 3.3 6.0 10.4 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 70.7 10.3%
Dayton 30.3% 18.9% 11.4% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.3 2.1 2.9 4.2 6.7 8.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.7 14.1%
Saint Louis 19.7% 13.4% 6.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 2.0 4.0 8.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.3 7.4%
George Washington 15.8% 11.0% 4.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.8 6.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.2 5.4%
George Mason 11.8% 8.7% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 2.2 5.3 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 88.2 3.4%
Loyola Chicago 7.2% 5.1% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 92.8 2.2%
Duquesne 5.6% 4.3% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.4 1.4%
St. Bonaventure 5.7% 3.9% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.3 1.8%
Saint Joseph's 5.1% 4.1% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 94.9 1.1%
Rhode Island 3.1% 2.7% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.9 0.4%
Richmond 3.5% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.5 0.6%
Davidson 2.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.5 0.4%
Fordham 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7 0.1%
La Salle 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 29.3% 3.3% 27.8% 12.7% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Dayton 30.3% 3.8% 28.4% 13.0% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Saint Louis 19.7% 3.1% 18.2% 7.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
George Washington 15.8% 2.5% 14.5% 5.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 11.8% 1.8% 10.9% 3.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 7.2% 1.3% 6.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 5.6% 0.8% 5.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 5.7% 1.1% 5.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 5.1% 0.6% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 3.1% 0.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 3.5% 0.3% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 2.5% 0.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 63.6 31.4 4.7 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.3 0.0 71.1 26.1 2.8 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 44.7% 0.5 55.3 39.1 5.4 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 13.7% 0.1 86.3 13.3 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.4 0.0
Final Four 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Final Game 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2