Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
38 Virginia Commonwealth 46.8%   11   16 - 5 7 - 2 23 - 7 14 - 4 +11.9      +4.7 66 +7.3 29 66.9 219 +8.6 64 +11.0 2
80 Dayton 13.1%   14 - 7 5 - 4 20 - 10 11 - 7 +7.3      +6.0 46 +1.4 137 63.7 304 +8.6 65 +4.9 5
81 George Mason 16.9%   16 - 5 8 - 1 22 - 8 14 - 4 +7.3      -0.5 185 +7.8 22 62.7 326 +8.9 60 +14.6 1
86 Saint Joseph's 10.8%   13 - 9 5 - 5 19 - 12 11 - 8 +6.7      +2.2 113 +4.5 62 70.4 122 +3.7 114 +3.4 7
95 St. Bonaventure 5.7%   16 - 6 5 - 5 21 - 9 10 - 8 +5.3      +3.0 91 +2.3 110 61.6 343 +7.3 78 +3.0 8
105 Saint Louis 5.4%   11 - 9 6 - 3 16 - 13 11 - 7 +4.4      +2.0 118 +2.3 108 69.5 146 +3.3 122 +8.2 3
121 Rhode Island 1.7%   14 - 6 4 - 5 18 - 11 8 - 10 +2.3      +0.5 167 +1.8 122 74.7 39 +4.6 97 +0.8 10
124 George Washington 1.3%   14 - 7 4 - 5 18 - 12 8 - 10 +2.1      +0.6 162 +1.5 135 69.8 136 +2.0 139 +0.7 11
126 Davidson 1.5%   12 - 8 3 - 5 17 - 13 8 - 10 +2.1      +3.4 83 -1.3 212 64.9 272 +2.8 129 -0.8 13
128 Loyola Chicago 1.6%   12 - 8 4 - 4 17 - 13 9 - 9 +1.9      -0.5 184 +2.4 107 68.3 183 +2.3 132 +5.1 4
142 Duquesne 0.9%   8 - 13 4 - 5 12 - 18 8 - 10 +1.2      -1.3 215 +2.5 104 63.5 308 -2.4 210 +1.9 9
152 Massachusetts 1.0%   9 - 12 5 - 4 13 - 17 9 - 9 +0.7      -1.1 207 +1.8 123 76.4 22 -1.5 193 +4.2 6
191 Fordham 0.2%   9 - 12 2 - 7 12 - 18 5 - 13 -1.4      -0.7 193 -0.7 194 73.1 63 -1.6 195 -3.9 15
193 La Salle 0.2%   11 - 10 4 - 6 14 - 16 7 - 12 -1.5      -1.7 221 +0.2 163 73.2 59 +1.4 150 +0.3 12
220 Richmond 0.0%   5 - 15 2 - 7 8 - 21 5 - 13 -3.2      -2.9 247 -0.3 179 64.1 296 -6.1 265 -3.3 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Virginia Commonwealth 1.4 65.8 27.2 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Dayton 4.5 3.0 9.5 23.7 21.9 16.0 10.8 6.5 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1
George Mason 1.7 49.9 38.4 7.3 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 4.0 3.0 13.7 32.4 19.6 12.8 8.2 4.7 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 6.1 0.1 2.3 11.6 15.6 16.9 15.6 12.0 8.5 7.1 4.4 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.1
Saint Louis 4.7 2.4 10.1 23.8 17.4 15.1 11.2 8.2 4.6 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 8.6 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.8 7.0 8.8 12.1 12.8 12.7 11.9 10.3 7.7 5.4 2.5 0.6
George Washington 8.7 0.1 0.5 2.5 4.4 6.7 8.9 11.9 12.5 13.2 11.5 10.2 8.3 6.3 2.6 0.5
Davidson 9.3 0.1 0.3 2.1 3.6 5.9 7.4 9.7 10.2 11.8 11.9 11.7 10.7 8.2 5.0 1.7
Loyola Chicago 7.6 0.2 1.6 6.8 8.7 10.7 11.3 12.4 10.0 9.9 8.4 6.9 6.8 4.2 1.6 0.3
Duquesne 9.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 4.9 6.8 9.9 10.8 13.1 12.5 12.5 11.0 9.1 4.5 1.1
Massachusetts 7.6 0.1 1.0 4.8 7.5 11.1 12.2 13.2 12.3 11.8 8.9 7.7 5.3 3.3 0.7 0.1
Fordham 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.6 4.9 6.8 10.3 16.2 29.7 24.6
La Salle 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.5 7.3 10.7 11.9 14.4 16.3 16.6 9.0 2.2
Richmond 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 4.1 7.3 12.6 27.5 44.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.4 7.3 17.2 27.6 29.6 15.5
Dayton 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.2 5.6 12.9 22.4 26.1 20.5 8.9 2.2
George Mason 14 - 4 0.2 1.1 4.5 11.5 22.0 27.4 21.2 10.2 1.8
Saint Joseph's 11 - 7 0.1 1.0 3.2 9.3 18.8 25.1 25.3 14.2 3.3
St. Bonaventure 10 - 8 0.1 1.5 5.7 13.8 23.2 25.4 20.0 8.7 1.7
Saint Louis 11 - 7 0.2 2.0 7.0 14.7 22.1 23.3 18.2 9.2 2.9 0.4
Rhode Island 8 - 10 0.6 3.2 10.7 20.3 24.4 22.0 12.3 5.1 1.3 0.2
George Washington 8 - 10 0.7 3.6 11.5 19.8 25.1 21.0 11.9 5.1 1.1 0.2
Davidson 8 - 10 0.2 2.1 6.5 14.5 22.1 23.0 17.5 9.5 3.8 0.9 0.1
Loyola Chicago 9 - 9 0.4 2.4 7.8 14.6 19.6 21.6 17.1 10.8 4.4 1.2 0.2
Duquesne 8 - 10 1.2 6.3 15.9 23.2 24.2 17.6 8.5 2.6 0.5 0.0
Massachusetts 9 - 9 1.2 5.9 14.8 23.2 24.1 17.8 9.4 3.1 0.5 0.1
Fordham 5 - 13 2.7 10.8 20.3 24.6 21.0 12.8 5.9 1.6 0.2
La Salle 7 - 11 2.9 12.9 24.4 27.1 19.8 9.3 3.0 0.6 0.1
Richmond 5 - 13 6.2 17.6 27.9 24.8 15.0 6.5 1.8 0.3 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 65.8% 45.9 17.4 2.1 0.3 0.0
Dayton 3.0% 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
George Mason 49.9% 30.6 16.9 2.1 0.3 0.0
Saint Joseph's 3.0% 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0
St. Bonaventure 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Saint Louis 2.4% 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Washington 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
Davidson 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham
La Salle 0.0% 0.0
Richmond


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 46.8% 41.7% 5.1% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.4 6.9 26.4 4.8 0.0 53.2 8.8%
Dayton 13.1% 12.0% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 8.6 3.0 0.0 86.9 1.2%
George Mason 16.9% 16.0% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 9.4 6.3 0.3 83.1 1.0%
Saint Joseph's 10.8% 10.8% 0.1% 0.1 0.1 3.1 6.8 0.7 0.1 89.2 0.1%
St. Bonaventure 5.7% 5.7% 0.1% 0.1 1.8 3.6 0.2 0.0 94.3 0.1%
Saint Louis 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.1 94.6 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 98.3 0.0%
George Washington 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 98.7 0.0%
Davidson 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 98.6 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 98.4 0.0%
Duquesne 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 99.1 0.0%
Massachusetts 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 99.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
La Salle 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 46.8% 3.6% 45.2% 18.3% 6.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Dayton 13.1% 1.0% 12.5% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 16.9% 0.8% 16.4% 4.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 10.8% 0.1% 10.8% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 5.7% 0.1% 5.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 5.4% 0.0% 5.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 92.9 7.0 0.1
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 95.5 4.4 0.0
2nd Round 29.7% 0.3 70.3 29.4 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 8.2% 0.1 91.8 8.2 0.0
Elite Eight 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Final Four 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0