Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
35 Virginia Commonwealth 67.8%   11   24 - 6 15 - 3 24 - 6 15 - 3 +13.6      +6.9 41 +6.7 32 65.8 239 +10.3 56 +12.3 2
74 Dayton 17.1%   21 - 9 12 - 6 21 - 9 12 - 6 +7.5      +5.9 53 +1.5 122 65.1 265 +9.7 59 +7.5 3
76 Saint Joseph's 9.7%   20 - 11 12 - 7 20 - 11 12 - 7 +7.4      +3.5 86 +3.9 75 69.7 126 +4.8 100 +5.4 6
90 George Mason 9.0%   23 - 7 15 - 3 23 - 7 15 - 3 +5.8      -1.6 215 +7.4 26 62.8 318 +9.4 61 +12.6 1
100 Saint Louis 3.4%   16 - 13 11 - 7 16 - 13 11 - 7 +4.4      +2.3 108 +2.1 109 67.9 189 +3.8 113 +6.6 5
109 Loyola Chicago 4.3%   20 - 10 12 - 6 20 - 10 12 - 6 +3.7      +0.9 149 +2.9 95 67.9 188 +4.9 99 +7.5 4
110 St. Bonaventure 2.0%   20 - 10 9 - 9 21 - 10 9 - 9 +3.7      -0.1 180 +3.8 77 62.4 328 +5.6 91 +2.6 7
114 George Washington 2.2%   19 - 11 9 - 9 19 - 11 9 - 9 +3.3      0.0 174 +3.3 85 67.5 198 +2.5 130 +2.0 8
122 Duquesne 0.7%   12 - 18 8 - 10 12 - 19 8 - 10 +2.3      +0.1 170 +2.2 105 63.6 298 -1.5 181 +1.6 9
138 Rhode Island 0.5%   17 - 12 7 - 11 18 - 12 7 - 11 +1.3      +1.3 137 0.0 175 74.5 41 +2.1 136 -0.8 11
140 Davidson 0.5%   15 - 15 6 - 12 16 - 15 6 - 12 +1.1      +1.8 127 -0.7 190 64.8 274 +0.3 160 -2.2 12
190 Massachusetts 0.1%   11 - 19 7 - 11 12 - 19 7 - 11 -1.5      -2.5 238 +0.9 146 74.4 44 -3.0 216 -0.4 10
225 La Salle 0.0%   12 - 18 5 - 14 12 - 19 5 - 14 -3.4      -2.6 243 -0.8 194 71.1 96 -1.5 183 -3.5 14
226 Richmond 0.0%   8 - 21 5 - 13 8 - 22 5 - 13 -3.5      -2.1 226 -1.4 215 61.4 344 -5.1 251 -2.4 13
238 Fordham 0.0%   10 - 20 3 - 15 10 - 21 3 - 15 -4.1      -1.7 216 -2.5 246 73.5 56 -3.7 230 -6.5 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Virginia Commonwealth 1.0 100.0
Dayton 3.0 100.0
Saint Joseph's 3.0 100.0
George Mason 1.0 100.0
Saint Louis 6.0 100.0
Loyola Chicago 3.0 100.0
St. Bonaventure 7.0 100.0
George Washington 7.0 100.0
Duquesne 9.0 100.0
Rhode Island 10.0 100.0
Davidson 12.0 100.0
Massachusetts 10.0 100.0
La Salle 13.0 100.0
Richmond 13.0 100.0
Fordham 15.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 15 - 3 100.0
Dayton 12 - 6 100.0
Saint Joseph's 12 - 6 100.0
George Mason 15 - 3 100.0
Saint Louis 11 - 7 100.0
Loyola Chicago 12 - 6 100.0
St. Bonaventure 9 - 9 100.0
George Washington 9 - 9 100.0
Duquesne 8 - 10 100.0
Rhode Island 7 - 11 100.0
Davidson 6 - 12 100.0
Massachusetts 7 - 11 100.0
La Salle 5 - 13 100.0
Richmond 5 - 13 100.0
Fordham 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 100.0% 100.0
Dayton
Saint Joseph's
George Mason 100.0% 100.0
Saint Louis
Loyola Chicago
St. Bonaventure
George Washington
Duquesne
Rhode Island
Davidson
Massachusetts
La Salle
Richmond
Fordham


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 67.8% 55.1% 12.6% 11   0.0 0.0 0.6 4.4 20.9 39.4 2.5 32.2 28.2%
Dayton 17.1% 12.8% 4.4% 0.1 1.2 12.2 3.7 82.9 5.0%
Saint Joseph's 9.7% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 2.5 7.0 0.1 90.3 0.0%
George Mason 9.0% 8.7% 0.3% 0.1 3.6 5.3 0.0 91.0 0.3%
Saint Louis 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 96.6 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 3.0 1.2 0.1 95.7 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.9 0.0 98.0 0.0%
George Washington 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 97.8 0.0%
Duquesne 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.5 0.2 99.3 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Davidson 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 67.8% 9.3% 63.7% 26.7% 8.8% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Dayton 17.1% 4.3% 14.4% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 9.7% 0.0% 9.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 9.0% 0.3% 8.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 3.4% 0.0% 3.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 4.3% 0.0% 4.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.2 83.0 16.6 0.3
1st Round 99.9% 1.1 0.1 89.8 10.1 0.1
2nd Round 33.3% 0.3 66.7 32.6 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 10.1% 0.1 89.9 10.1 0.1
Elite Eight 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1
Final Four 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0