Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
28 Saint Louis 83.3%   9   17 - 1 6 - 0 +14.5      +7.3 46 +7.2 25 76.1 31 +17.8 18 +20.7 1
55 Virginia Commonwealth 26.0%   13 - 6 4 - 2 +10.3      +6.6 49 +3.7 75 72.9 74 +9.0 64 +9.3 3
72 George Washington 8.8%   11 - 7 3 - 3 +7.9      +6.9 47 +1.0 135 73.5 67 +3.1 117 +1.9 8
73 Dayton 12.4%   14 - 5 5 - 1 +7.8      +1.3 133 +6.5 32 68.0 213 +8.5 70 +9.0 4
86 George Mason 14.8%   17 - 1 6 - 0 +7.1      +4.4 77 +2.7 101 63.1 327 +16.2 25 +17.9 2
118 Duquesne 1.1%   8 - 9 2 - 4 +2.8      +1.9 120 +0.9 136 75.7 35 -0.9 176 +1.3 9
120 Richmond 1.1%   12 - 7 3 - 4 +2.7      +1.9 119 +0.8 139 69.7 160 +1.4 138 +0.1 10
122 Rhode Island 1.1%   11 - 8 2 - 4 +2.6      -0.7 184 +3.3 87 66.2 260 +1.6 135 -2.5 11
136 St. Bonaventure 0.5%   11 - 7 1 - 5 +1.5      +2.6 108 -1.1 213 65.9 266 +1.3 142 -10.5 14
137 Davidson 1.0%   11 - 6 4 - 2 +1.5      -0.2 170 +1.7 117 63.5 322 +4.8 97 +4.9 6
159 Saint Joseph's 0.3%   9 - 8 3 - 3 0.0      -2.7 248 +2.7 98 69.5 167 +1.3 143 +5.0 5
193 Fordham 0.1%   7 - 10 1 - 6 -2.2      -2.8 252 +0.6 144 62.8 335 -7.1 277 -5.3 13
197 La Salle 0.1%   6 - 13 3 - 4 -2.5      -1.5 208 -1.1 211 64.1 307 -1.9 202 +4.2 7
268 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   5 - 15 1 - 6 -6.0      -1.9 221 -4.1 299 66.9 237 -9.0 312 -4.7 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Jan 19 159 Saint Joseph's 72 55 Virginia Commonwealth 79   
Mon, Jan 19 86 George Mason 69 72 George Washington 64   
Tue, Jan 20 118 Duquesne 77 28 Saint Louis 81   
Tue, Jan 20 268 Loyola Chicago 70 136 St. Bonaventure 84   
Wed, Jan 21 122 Rhode Island 69 120 Richmond 68   
Wed, Jan 21 137 Davidson 68 193 Fordham 63   
Wed, Jan 21 73 Dayton 64 197 La Salle 67   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 23 28 Saint Louis 83 136 St. Bonaventure 73 83%   
Sat, Jan 24 86 George Mason 69 122 Rhode Island 68 56%   
Sat, Jan 24 72 George Washington 85 120 Richmond 76 78%   
Sat, Jan 24 137 Davidson 71 55 Virginia Commonwealth 76 71%   
Sat, Jan 24 73 Dayton 71 159 Saint Joseph's 66 68%   
Sat, Jan 24 118 Duquesne 81 268 Loyola Chicago 75 71%   
Tue, Jan 27 72 George Washington 79 28 Saint Louis 88 82%   
Tue, Jan 27 73 Dayton 72 122 Rhode Island 64 78%   
Tue, Jan 27 120 Richmond 73 55 Virginia Commonwealth 84 84%   
Tue, Jan 27 268 Loyola Chicago 70 159 Saint Joseph's 73 62%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 1.2 86.9 9.8 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 3.0 8.2 34.7 27.5 15.7 8.0 3.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 4.6 1.1 9.8 18.2 23.4 20.8 12.3 6.9 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
Dayton 3.9 4.7 18.3 21.8 22.7 15.4 8.7 4.3 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
George Mason 2.7 14.5 39.2 23.3 12.1 5.8 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 8.2 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.5 8.0 12.4 14.3 14.4 14.0 11.7 8.9 6.2 3.0 0.7
Richmond 8.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 4.0 7.6 11.5 13.9 15.6 14.9 13.1 9.2 5.4 2.2 0.4
Rhode Island 8.3 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.6 7.3 11.4 14.5 14.4 13.9 12.0 9.6 7.1 3.7 0.6
St. Bonaventure 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.0 7.8 10.2 12.8 16.1 19.6 17.1 6.0
Davidson 6.4 0.2 2.6 6.0 11.2 16.3 19.3 15.3 11.1 8.5 4.9 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
Saint Joseph's 7.5 0.1 1.2 3.2 6.6 10.6 14.8 15.9 15.5 11.6 8.8 6.2 3.5 1.6 0.5
Fordham 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.3 7.1 10.4 14.6 20.4 26.1 12.8
La Salle 9.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.5 8.6 11.3 14.4 15.4 17.5 13.9 7.5 1.9
Loyola Chicago 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 5.1 11.0 24.7 54.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 16 - 2 27 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.9 9.7 18.9 27.9 26.1 12.1
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 22 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.8 13.8 20.4 24.5 19.2 9.5 2.1
George Washington 11 - 7 19 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 6.1 12.3 19.2 22.7 20.2 11.8 4.1 0.6
Dayton 12 - 6 21 - 10 0.2 0.9 3.4 7.9 15.0 20.2 21.6 16.5 9.5 3.7 1.0 0.1
George Mason 13 - 5 24 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.6 11.4 17.6 20.6 19.6 13.4 6.7 2.0 0.4
Duquesne 8 - 10 14 - 15 0.1 0.6 2.6 7.0 13.4 19.3 20.5 17.6 11.2 5.4 1.9 0.4 0.0
Richmond 8 - 10 17 - 13 0.4 2.3 6.9 14.0 20.2 21.6 17.6 10.6 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.0
Rhode Island 8 - 10 17 - 14 0.1 0.8 3.1 7.8 14.0 19.4 20.7 16.7 10.5 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.0
St. Bonaventure 6 - 12 16 - 14 0.5 2.5 7.6 14.5 19.9 20.2 16.7 10.6 5.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Davidson 9 - 9 16 - 13 0.1 1.1 4.4 10.5 17.6 21.2 19.9 14.1 7.3 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 8 - 10 14 - 15 0.2 1.2 4.3 9.5 16.3 20.7 19.7 14.7 8.4 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.0
Fordham 5 - 13 11 - 17 0.8 4.7 12.4 20.4 23.2 19.4 11.5 5.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
La Salle 7 - 11 10 - 20 1.6 7.9 15.9 22.0 22.3 16.4 9.0 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
Loyola Chicago 3 - 15 7 - 24 8.0 21.6 27.5 22.5 12.8 5.5 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 86.9% 74.7 10.5 1.6 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 8.2% 2.9 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
George Washington 1.1% 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Dayton 4.7% 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
George Mason 14.5% 6.7 6.4 1.3 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0
Richmond 0.0% 0.0
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure
Davidson 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fordham
La Salle
Loyola Chicago


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 83.3% 47.7% 35.6% 9   0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 3.9 6.6 10.1 13.0 16.8 17.9 10.5 0.1 16.7 68.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 26.0% 19.4% 6.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.4 4.7 17.4 1.4 74.0 8.2%
George Washington 8.8% 8.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.3 2.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.2 0.3%
Dayton 12.4% 10.0% 2.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 9.2 1.4 0.0 87.6 2.6%
George Mason 14.8% 9.2% 5.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.9 10.9 1.2 0.0 85.2 6.2%
Duquesne 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.0 0.0%
Richmond 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.9 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.9 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Davidson 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 99.0 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 53.2 43.2 3.5 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 0.0 61.0 37.5 1.5 0.0
2nd Round 54.8% 0.6 45.2 49.7 5.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 15.8% 0.2 84.2 15.6 0.2
Elite Eight 5.6% 0.1 94.4 5.6 0.0
Final Four 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.5
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 83.3% 7.8% 80.0% 44.9% 13.3% 5.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Virginia Commonwealth 26.0% 4.9% 23.4% 7.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 8.8% 0.2% 8.7% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 12.4% 1.9% 11.3% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 14.8% 4.7% 11.9% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%