Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
22 Saint Louis 95.6%   7   22 - 1 11 - 0 +16.6      +8.6 31 +8.0 20 76.8 21 +19.8 13 +20.7 1
51 Virginia Commonwealth 32.7%   19 - 6 10 - 2 +10.9      +7.0 48 +3.9 67 72.4 81 +11.3 53 +13.0 2
84 George Washington 3.7%   13 - 11 5 - 7 +6.6      +6.1 54 +0.5 152 72.9 67 +1.4 140 +0.2 9
89 George Mason 4.9%   20 - 4 9 - 3 +5.7      +2.7 102 +3.0 92 63.1 326 +9.4 61 +8.3 3
97 Dayton 2.5%   15 - 9 6 - 5 +5.3      +0.6 152 +4.7 58 69.8 144 +6.0 85 +3.5 7
108 Duquesne 1.8%   12 - 10 6 - 5 +4.0      +2.6 104 +1.5 127 73.9 54 +2.3 126 +5.1 5
111 Davidson 2.0%   13 - 9 6 - 5 +3.7      +1.9 118 +1.7 121 61.8 342 +4.7 96 +4.5 6
116 Rhode Island 1.2%   14 - 10 5 - 6 +3.0      +0.1 160 +2.9 94 65.5 265 +3.1 113 +2.9 8
128 Richmond 0.4%   13 - 11 4 - 8 +2.0      +2.3 111 -0.4 181 68.7 181 +0.8 145 -0.3 11
134 St. Bonaventure 0.3%   13 - 10 3 - 8 +1.7      +3.1 93 -1.4 222 66.2 246 +2.1 129 -3.2 13
136 Saint Joseph's 0.8%   13 - 10 7 - 5 +1.6      -2.5 234 +4.0 64 69.5 159 +2.7 118 +5.5 4
157 Fordham 0.1%   10 - 12 4 - 8 -0.2      -2.6 242 +2.4 102 62.1 340 -3.8 229 0.0 10
226 La Salle 0.0%   6 - 18 3 - 9 -3.5      -3.0 254 -0.4 184 63.9 307 -4.0 230 -2.2 12
277 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   6 - 19 2 - 10 -6.7      -2.6 245 -4.0 296 66.3 243 -8.3 299 -5.9 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 10 157 Fordham 68 136 Saint Joseph's 64   
Tue, Feb 10 84 George Washington 75 116 Rhode Island 70   
Tue, Feb 10 89 George Mason 70 128 Richmond 82   
Wed, Feb 11 226 La Salle 68 51 Virginia Commonwealth 77   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Feb 13 89 George Mason 74 84 George Washington 78 65%   
Fri, Feb 13 277 Loyola Chicago 68 22 Saint Louis 88 96%   
Sat, Feb 14 134 St. Bonaventure 79 108 Duquesne 78 53%   
Sat, Feb 14 157 Fordham 62 116 Rhode Island 68 73%   
Sat, Feb 14 128 Richmond 76 51 Virginia Commonwealth 82 72%   
Sun, Feb 15 111 Davidson 67 97 Dayton 71 67%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 1.0 98.5 1.5 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 2.0 5.1 87.8 6.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
George Washington 6.6 0.1 3.0 10.5 16.7 19.3 18.2 15.0 11.0 4.1 1.6 0.4 0.1
George Mason 3.2 0.2 15.7 60.3 15.0 5.6 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Dayton 6.3 0.7 8.5 14.8 15.6 16.5 13.8 13.1 10.8 4.6 1.4 0.2
Duquesne 5.8 0.4 9.2 20.6 18.7 16.6 13.2 10.4 7.1 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
Davidson 5.2 1.1 16.5 26.5 17.6 14.0 10.7 6.7 4.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Rhode Island 7.0 0.1 3.4 11.1 14.0 14.9 15.3 15.3 13.0 7.4 4.0 1.6 0.2
Richmond 9.9 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.2 4.8 8.8 14.3 27.0 22.2 14.5 3.0 0.2
St. Bonaventure 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.8 5.5 9.8 18.2 22.2 28.4 9.7 0.5
Saint Joseph's 4.9 1.3 21.1 26.1 20.8 14.4 8.7 5.2 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Fordham 10.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.5 4.5 8.4 14.0 25.4 26.4 13.1 4.3 0.4
La Salle 12.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.0 5.2 11.6 24.2 52.5 3.5
Loyola Chicago 13.8 0.2 0.7 3.3 15.0 80.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 17 - 1 28 - 2 0.1 0.7 4.5 17.6 39.2 37.9
Virginia Commonwealth 14 - 4 23 - 8 0.1 1.5 7.6 22.7 35.6 26.7 5.8
George Washington 9 - 9 17 - 13 0.2 1.9 8.9 22.7 35.1 25.3 6.0
George Mason 12 - 6 23 - 7 2.2 12.8 27.6 31.5 19.3 6.0 0.7
Dayton 9 - 9 18 - 13 1.7 9.0 21.1 28.6 23.7 12.1 3.3 0.5
Duquesne 9 - 9 15 - 14 0.7 5.2 16.6 28.5 27.9 16.4 4.5 0.4
Davidson 10 - 8 17 - 12 0.4 3.0 11.7 23.1 28.2 22.0 9.9 1.7
Rhode Island 9 - 9 18 - 13 0.7 4.6 13.3 24.7 28.6 19.8 7.3 1.1
Richmond 7 - 11 16 - 14 2.7 12.6 27.4 30.7 19.3 6.5 0.9
St. Bonaventure 6 - 12 16 - 14 2.1 9.8 22.1 27.9 22.8 11.8 3.1 0.4
Saint Joseph's 10 - 8 16 - 13 0.7 7.4 22.5 32.0 25.4 10.2 1.7
Fordham 7 - 11 13 - 15 2.6 14.2 28.2 31.1 18.4 5.2 0.3
La Salle 5 - 13 8 - 22 14.7 32.5 30.8 15.8 5.3 0.9 0.1
Loyola Chicago 3 - 15 7 - 24 41.2 39.6 15.7 3.4 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 98.5% 94.8 3.6 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 5.1% 1.5 3.5 0.0
George Washington
George Mason 0.2% 0.1 0.0
Dayton
Duquesne
Davidson
Rhode Island
Richmond
St. Bonaventure
Saint Joseph's
Fordham
La Salle
Loyola Chicago


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 95.6% 61.8% 33.8% 7   0.3 0.9 3.8 9.3 12.0 14.6 17.1 14.9 12.6 7.9 2.3 4.4 88.5%
Virginia Commonwealth 32.7% 20.7% 12.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 4.5 25.1 1.0 67.3 15.1%
George Washington 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 96.3 0.0%
George Mason 4.9% 4.8% 0.2% 0.0 2.8 2.0 0.2 95.1 0.2%
Dayton 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 97.5 0.0%
Duquesne 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 98.2 0.0%
Davidson 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 98.0 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 98.8 0.0%
Richmond 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.6 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.2 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 55.6 42.7 1.7
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 61.0 38.2 0.8
2nd Round 70.8% 0.8 29.2 64.8 6.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 27.2% 0.3 72.8 26.7 0.5
Elite Eight 10.6% 0.1 89.4 10.6 0.0
Final Four 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4
Final Game 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 95.6% 1.7% 95.0% 66.1% 25.7% 10.3% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3%
Virginia Commonwealth 32.7% 10.5% 27.4% 8.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 3.7% 0.0% 3.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 4.9% 0.2% 4.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 2.5% 0.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%