Davidson
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +3.6 111
Results Rating +4.7 104
Consistency 0.19 345
Pace 61.5 345
Improvement -0.4 201

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 143 B- C+ C D C
Defense B- 98 B- C+ C+ C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 285 C 59% 159 -1.7 240
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 226 B+ 45% 32 +1.1 118
Three Pointers 45% 101 B 37% 61 +3.8 56
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.2 211 B +3.3 79
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 82
Second Chance C+ 31.2% 157 C+ 1.06 126 C+ 0.33 129
Opponents' Steals C 9.6% 195
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 197
Turnovers C 17.0% 197
Freethrows C- 0.29 236 F+ 66% 353 D 0.19 299
Total Offense C +0.8 143

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 51% 142 C- 11.6% 221
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 250 B 3.1% 52
Three Pointers C+ 85% 170 C- 1.1% 259
Total C+ 57% 148 C+ 5.2% 138


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 186 C 57% 153 -0.4 163
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 38 D+ 41% 279 +2.7 349
Three Pointers 35% 330 B 31% 47 -4.5 20
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.7 67 C+ -1.5 126
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 112
Second Chance C+ 29.1% 137 C+ 1.01 145 C+ 0.30 135
Turnovers from Steals C+ 9.9% 149
Other Turnovers C+ 7.8% 107
Turnovers C+ 17.7% 121
Freethrows C 0.30 195 A 67% 5 C+ 0.20 113
Total Defense B- +2.8 98

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 124 C+ 13.0% 90
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 45 C 4.9% 171
Three Pointers C+ 82% 137 C+ 1.1% 122
Total B 48% 37 B- 6.7% 96

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 262 18.6 342
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 261 0.16 125
Consistency 0.14 264 0.11 73
Improvement -1.2 253 +0.8 151

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 127 112 99
Results Rating Rank 131 106 89
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 7 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Home) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 22 - 32 - 8
Quad 38 - 410 - 12
Quad 48 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 128 Washington St. W 85 - 69 67% +16  99% 1 - 0 A- +15 B +7 A+ C- F A- +8 A+ D- A
 Tue, Nov 11 169 @Charlotte W 62 - 55 55% +8  97% 2 - 0 B +9 C- -2 A- F F A+ +13 A+ A C-
 Sat, Nov 15 165 Bowling Green W 91 - 87 75% +9  96% 3 - 0 C +0 B- +5 A+ C- F D -5 B+ F F
 Fri, Nov 21 137 Boston College W 59 - 49 59% +3  69% 4 - 0 B +11 C +0 C+ D A- A+ +13 B+ B A+
 Sun, Nov 23 41 Utah St. L 60 - 94 19% -17  0% 4 - 1 F -21 F -11 D+ C F F+ -10 F B- A
 Fri, Nov 28 281 N.C. A&T W 90 - 74 89% +9  86% 5 - 1 B- +6 A +14 A A A D- -7 F A- D
 Thu, Dec 4 343 The Citadel W 79 - 63 95% +9  98% 6 - 1 C +0 C+ +3 D+ C+ A+ C- -2 F+ B A-
 Sun, Dec 7 31 St. Mary's L 61 - 70 22% -1  42% 6 - 2 C+ +3 C- -2 C+ D- B- B +4 B- B+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 291 Mercyhurst W 80 - 47 90% +17  98% 7 - 2 A +23 A+ +16 A+ C+ B A+ +13 B- A+ B-
 Thu, Dec 18 166 Temple L 63 - 68 75% -6  1% 7 - 3 D -9 D- -8 F B B C- -2 B- A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 20 @Kansas L 61 - 90 7% -20  0% 7 - 4 D -9 D -5 B- C+ F C- -2 F D A+
 Tue, Dec 30 120 Duquesne L 83 - 89 2OT 64% +3  70% 7 - 5 0 - 1 D+ -6 C- -1 D D A+ D+ -5 B D+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 116 @Saint Joseph's W 62 - 56 40% -5  10% 8 - 5 1 - 1 B+ +12 C+ +3 D+ A+ F A +10 A- C+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 279 @Loyola Chicago W 79 - 64 75% +10  99% 9 - 5 2 - 1 B+ +11 B +7 B+ B- D B+ +5 A F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 135 Rhode Island L 45 - 70 69% -14  0% 9 - 6 2 - 2 F -26 F -22 F F C- F+ -9 F A+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 78 @George Washington W 84 - 79 25% +9  88% 10 - 6 3 - 2 A- +16 A+ +15 A+ A+ B- C+ +0 A+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 159 Fordham W 68 - 63 74% -1  36% 11 - 6 4 - 2 C+ +2 C- -0 C+ D+ C- B- +3 F C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 49 Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 75 33% -0  40% 11 - 7 4 - 3 C+ +2 B +6 A- C- A+ D+ -4 D+ F A
 Wed, Jan 28 105 @George Mason L 52 - 60 36% -3  21% 11 - 8 4 - 4 C -1 F+ -10 F+ B- F A- +7 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 136 @Richmond W 79 - 54 46% +17  99% 12 - 8 5 - 4 A+ +30 A+ +22 A+ A+ B- A+ +13 A+ F B+
 Tue, Feb 3 24 Saint Louis L 82 - 91 19% +1  55% 12 - 9 5 - 5 C+ +4 A +13 B- A+ A+ F+ -9 B+ F D
 Fri, Feb 6 279 Loyola Chicago W 84 - 64 89% +16  96% 13 - 9 6 - 5 B +10 A +14 A+ F D+ C -1 F C- A
 Sun, Feb 15 75 @Dayton L 59 - 70 25% -5  12% 13 - 10 6 - 6 C -0 C +0 C C- A+ C- -2 B F A+
 Wed, Feb 18 136 Richmond W 65 - 63 69% +6  77% 14 - 10 7 - 6 C +1 D -5 F+ A C B+ +6 A B- F
 Sat, Feb 21 159 @Fordham L 59 - 63 52% -3  24% 14 - 11 7 - 7 C -1 C- -2 B+ D+ F C -0 C- C- C+
 Wed, Feb 25 120 @Duquesne W 67 - 56 41% +8  82% 15 - 11 8 - 7 A- +17 C- -1 C- C C+ A+ +18 A+ A F+
 Sun, Mar 1 210 La Salle W 71 - 64 81% +2  63% 16 - 11 9 - 7 C +1 C- -2 C A- D B +4 B+ A+ D-
 Wed, Mar 4 116 Saint Joseph's W 68 - 65 63%
 Sat, Mar 7 138 @St. Bonaventure L 71 - 72 48%
Totals 17 - 12 10 - 8 +4 C +1 A+ B C B- +3 B F+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C B+ B B 35% 34% 45% C B- C+ C+ C+ C C- F+ D B- C D+ B C+ 38% 26% 35% B B- C+ C+ C+ C+ C A C+
1.10 59% 45% 37% +3 0 1.09 31% 1.1 .33 17% .29 66% .19 1.05 57% 41% 31% -1 -1 0.98 29% 1.0 .30 18% .30 67% .19
Nov
7		 Washington St. B A+ A A+ A+ 30% 22% 48% C- A+ F A+ C- F A A- A+ A- A+ D+ A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% A- A+ D D- D- A F F F
1.22 79% 50% 45% +17 -1 1.35 18% 1.5 .27 21% .38 81% .31 0.99 44% 42% 28% -8 -1 0.85 33% 1.1 .36 23% .43 83% .35
Nov
11		 Charlotte C- F+ A+ A+ A 29% 21% 50% D+ A- F D- F F F+ D F+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ 40% 16% 44% C+ A+ F+ A+ A C- F A+ C+
1.07 50% 56% 43% +8 -1 1.17 20% 1.0 .20 19% .25 67% .17 0.95 50% 14% 30% -10 +1 0.84 39% 0.5 .20 17% .42 55% .23
Nov
15		 Bowling Green B- B- A+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 49% D A+ D B+ C- F A+ C+ A+ D C C+ A+ B 49% 30% 21% A B+ D F F F F B+ F
1.15 62% 56% 48% +15 -1 1.30 23% 1.2 .27 23% .62 74% .46 1.10 57% 35% 25% -4 0 0.93 31% 1.1 .33 11% .50 69% .34
Nov
21		 Boston College C C- A+ F B 25% 30% 45% F+ C+ F B D A- B B B+ A+ C- F A+ B 26% 32% 42% A B+ F A+ B A+ D A C
1.02 55% 62% 25% 0 -2 0.98 17% 1.0 .17 12% .33 71% .24 0.85 60% 50% 19% -5 -2 0.87 38% 0.7 .25 24% .32 57% .18
Nov
23		 Utah St. F A+ D F+ C- 17% 28% 54% F D+ B- D+ C F C+ F C- F+ F A- F F 40% 13% 47% B- F A- D- B- A A- F C+
0.85 75% 31% 28% -4 -2 0.89 33% 0.9 .31 27% .33 65% .21 1.34 86% 29% 44% +17 +1 1.38 29% 1.3 .38 20% .25 86% .21
Nov
28		 N.C. A&T A B A A+ A 51% 13% 36% A- A B A A A A+ F A+ D- B+ F+ F F 32% 30% 39% C+ F A B- A- D F A+ F
1.36 65% 50% 44% +10 +2 1.27 33% 1.3 .42 9% .58 57% .33 1.12 50% 46% 47% +7 -2 1.14 23% 1.0 .23 17% .55 60% .33
Dec
4		 The Citadel C+ F A+ A- D+ 35% 16% 49% D+ D+ C+ C+ C+ A+ A F B- C- D+ F A+ F 33% 24% 43% B F+ A- D+ B A- C- A+ B-
1.24 50% 50% 40% +3 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .37 9% .36 62% .22 0.99 60% 73% 25% +3 -1 1.07 21% 1.0 .21 22% .28 57% .16
Dec
7		 St. Mary's C- B B- F+ B 29% 29% 42% D- C+ C F D- B- B- F D B D+ D+ A B- 46% 33% 22% A- B- F A+ B+ B- C A+ B+
0.95 60% 40% 27% -3 -2 0.92 23% 0.6 .13 14% .27 53% .15 1.09 62% 40% 30% +1 -1 1.02 46% 0.8 .35 17% .32 65% .21
Dec
13		 Mercyhurst A+ A A+ A+ A+ 62% 10% 29% A A+ A- D- C+ B D F F+ A+ F A+ A B- 33% 38% 29% B- B- A+ B- A+ B- F A+ C+
1.36 69% 50% 58% +18 +3 1.45 42% 0.9 .38 15% .34 65% .22 0.80 79% 19% 25% -4 -3 0.88 9% 1.0 .09 17% .33 44% .14
Dec
18		 Temple D- F B+ F F 42% 22% 36% C F A D B B D+ F+ D C- D A+ D- C+ 26% 36% 38% A+ B- A+ A A+ F+ F D F
1.02 43% 45% 22% -11 0 0.80 39% 0.9 .37 13% .28 67% .19 1.10 64% 27% 38% -1 -3 0.95 15% 0.8 .12 10% .59 79% .47
Dec
22		 Kansas D F F A- C+ 34% 18% 48% B B- C B C+ F F F F C- F B+ F F 44% 23% 33% D+ F B- F D A+ A+ F A+
0.83 37% 20% 37% -8 0 0.86 26% 0.9 .24 22% .10 33% .03 1.22 76% 31% 47% +13 0 1.28 30% 1.5 .44 20% .09 100% .09
Dec
30		 Duquesne C- C- F+ F D- 41% 15% 44% B+ D F+ B D A+ F A F D+ A+ A+ F B- 31% 17% 52% A B D+ C- D+ D B- F C
1.06 56% 30% 28% -6 +1 0.91 20% 1.1 .22 8% .21 80% .17 1.14 44% 10% 43% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.1 .35 15% .32 81% .26
Jan
3		 Saint Joseph's C+ F A- D+ D+ 28% 23% 49% C D+ A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A D+ F A+ B+ 31% 26% 43% A+ A- C+ C C+ C+ F B F
1.02 36% 44% 32% -6 -1 0.87 39% 1.4 .54 23% .34 81% .28 0.92 62% 45% 17% -8 -1 0.83 31% 1.0 .31 18% .42 71% .30
Jan
7		 Loyola Chicago B F A+ A+ A- 32% 16% 52% C+ B+ C+ C+ B- D C+ F D B+ A+ F A+ A+ 50% 13% 38% D+ A D- F+ F+ C- F+ A+ C-
1.19 31% 75% 46% +7 0 1.16 31% 1.1 .34 15% .30 65% .19 0.96 42% 67% 22% -11 +2 0.83 35% 1.1 .38 18% .39 57% .22
Jan
10		 Rhode Island F C+ F F F 53% 10% 38% A- F F F F C- B F C F+ F F D+ F 42% 20% 38% C+ F A+ D A+ D A+ B- A+
0.75 57% 0% 13% -16 +2 0.75 13% 0.8 .10 22% .40 63% .25 1.16 79% 67% 35% +15 0 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 17% .20 70% .14
Jan
14		 George Washington A+ F+ F A+ A+ 48% 10% 43% A A+ A B A+ B- A+ F A- C+ B+ F+ A+ A+ 46% 11% 43% C+ A+ D- B+ C+ F D+ A+ B
1.27 50% 0% 67% +14 +2 1.33 39% 1.2 .45 17% .49 52% .25 1.19 54% 50% 25% -6 +2 0.93 41% 0.9 .39 8% .34 57% .20
Jan
21		 Fordham C- A- A+ F B- 26% 30% 43% D C+ A F D+ C- A A- A+ B- B- F B- F 42% 36% 22% A F A+ F C+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.04 67% 64% 20% +1 -2 1.00 36% 0.6 .22 17% .35 74% .26 0.97 53% 69% 30% +7 -2 1.13 24% 1.3 .32 28% .15 57% .08
Jan
24		 Virginia Commonwealth B B A+ B+ A+ 20% 37% 43% F A- C D+ C- A+ D F F D+ F F A+ F+ 34% 37% 29% A+ D+ F F+ F A D+ B C
1.12 60% 50% 38% +7 -3 1.10 29% 0.9 .26 11% .26 50% .13 1.22 71% 60% 25% +9 -2 1.15 44% 1.3 .56 19% .40 70% .28
Jan
28		 George Mason F+ D- B F D- 18% 33% 49% F F+ B+ C B- F F D F A- D- F B+ D+ 40% 18% 43% D+ D+ F A+ A+ A+ F A+ D+
0.89 50% 40% 27% -6 -3 0.84 33% 0.9 .31 21% .13 67% .09 1.03 69% 57% 29% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.3 .13 22% .49 59% .29
Jan
31		 Richmond A+ C+ B- A+ A+ 27% 35% 39% D- A+ A+ B+ A+ B- F F F A+ C- A A+ A+ 19% 26% 55% B- A+ D F F B+ C A B-
1.37 62% 41% 53% +13 -3 1.22 50% 1.3 .64 16% .08 50% .04 0.94 63% 27% 22% -12 -2 0.74 29% 1.6 .45 17% .34 69% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Saint Louis A C+ F+ C B- 34% 19% 47% C+ B- C A+ A+ A+ C+ B- B- F+ C B+ D+ B+ 44% 12% 44% B B+ D- F F D F C+ F
1.18 56% 30% 32% -4 0 0.94 26% 1.7 .44 10% .34 76% .26 1.31 61% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.13 38% 1.5 .56 14% .44 73% .32
Feb
6		 Loyola Chicago A A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 49% C- A+ C- F F D+ F B- F C C F F F 46% 20% 34% B- F D C+ C- A F A+ D
1.34 75% 64% 46% +19 -1 1.40 28% 0.6 .16 14% .19 80% .15 1.02 58% 50% 43% +7 +1 1.17 34% 0.9 .31 24% .44 57% .25
Feb
15		 Dayton C C- C+ C+ C+ 31% 27% 42% D+ C F A+ C- A+ F F+ F C- C+ B B B+ 49% 18% 33% C+ B F B- F A+ F F F
0.97 53% 38% 35% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.6 .27 16% .22 64% .14 1.15 58% 29% 31% -3 +1 0.97 52% 1.1 .59 26% .54 88% .47
Feb
18		 Richmond D C- F F F 28% 19% 53% B- F+ B A+ A C A+ F A- B+ A- B+ C A 26% 36% 38% A- A A+ F B- F A+ A+ A+
1.02 58% 25% 26% -9 0 0.84 34% 1.4 .47 17% .44 61% .27 0.99 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 14% 1.6 .22 6% .23 57% .13
Feb
21		 Fordham C- F B- A+ B+ 33% 23% 44% C+ B+ B F D+ F A F F C B- F A+ C- 49% 18% 33% D- C- A+ F C- C+ F A- F
0.98 43% 40% 47% +4 -1 1.09 31% 0.7 .23 23% .35 31% .11 1.05 53% 71% 23% -2 +1 1.00 24% 1.4 .34 18% .57 64% .37
Feb
25		 Duquesne C- C+ F D- D 49% 13% 38% A C- B F+ C C+ B+ D B- A+ A B- A+ A+ 55% 6% 40% F A+ A A- A F+ A+ A A+
1.02 59% 17% 29% -5 +2 0.96 33% 0.8 .28 17% .40 68% .27 0.85 48% 33% 19% -15 +3 0.79 23% 0.9 .21 14% .25 64% .16
Mar
1		 La Salle C- B- F B C 40% 24% 36% D+ C C- A+ A- D A+ F+ A B A- A+ F B+ 48% 26% 26% C- B+ A+ A A+ D- F F F
1.05 61% 27% 38% 0 0 1.02 28% 1.6 .44 19% .39 62% .24 0.95 45% 17% 42% -9 0 0.85 22% 0.8 .17 15% .47 85% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 6.3 6.3 4th
5th 38.4 25.1 63.4 5th
6th 14.3 10.2 24.5 6th
7th 5.9 5.9 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 20.1 48.5 31.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 31.3% 2.4% 2.4% 11.9 0.1 0.6 0.1 30.6
10-8 48.5% 1.3% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 47.9
9-9 20.1% 0.7% 0.7% 12.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 20.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 12.1 98.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 11.9 16.2 75.0 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.5%
Lose Out 9.9%