Davidson
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#126
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#129
Pace64.9#272
Improvement-1.4#251

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#83
First Shot+2.8#94
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#145
Layup/Dunks+0.0#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#65
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement-1.5#273

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#212
First Shot-3.4#282
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#35
Layups/Dunks-1.4#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#305
Freethrows+0.5#139
Improvement+0.1#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.4% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.1 12.8
.500 or above 84.8% 95.1% 81.9%
.500 or above in Conference 31.8% 54.2% 25.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.4% 1.6% 6.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.5% 2.4% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 21.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 32 - 8
Quad 35 - 67 - 14
Quad 411 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 312   @ Bowling Green W 91-85 78%     1 - 0 -0.1 +7.4 -8.0
  Nov 16, 2024 153   East Tennessee St. W 76-70 65%     2 - 0 +4.2 +10.4 -5.6
  Nov 22, 2024 304   VMI W 93-66 88%     3 - 0 +16.5 +13.5 +2.5
  Nov 27, 2024 10   Arizona L 71-104 8%     3 - 1 -15.2 -1.5 -10.1
  Nov 28, 2024 66   Providence W 69-58 28%     4 - 1 +19.1 +9.5 +11.1
  Nov 29, 2024 11   Gonzaga L 65-90 8%     4 - 2 -7.3 -3.8 -2.8
  Dec 06, 2024 285   Charleston Southern W 73-72 85%     5 - 2 -8.3 -0.7 -7.5
  Dec 10, 2024 221   Charlotte W 75-71 77%     6 - 2 -1.8 +18.4 -19.2
  Dec 14, 2024 323   Detroit Mercy W 86-51 91%     7 - 2 +22.6 +13.5 +10.6
  Dec 18, 2024 125   @ Temple L 61-62 40%     7 - 3 +3.6 -3.9 +7.4
  Dec 21, 2024 279   Bethune-Cookman W 76-63 85%     8 - 3 +4.0 +3.6 +0.6
  Dec 28, 2024 300   Eastern Michigan W 86-64 87%     9 - 3 +11.8 +8.5 +3.6
  Dec 31, 2024 81   @ George Mason L 57-69 23%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -2.2 +2.1 -6.2
  Jan 04, 2025 142   Duquesne W 77-71 63%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +4.7 +15.6 -10.1
  Jan 11, 2025 191   Fordham W 74-64 72%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +6.1 -4.2 +9.9
  Jan 15, 2025 193   @ La Salle L 76-79 54%     11 - 5 2 - 2 -2.0 +4.2 -6.3
  Jan 18, 2025 121   @ Rhode Island L 90-92 40%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +2.8 +21.4 -18.6
  Jan 21, 2025 86   Saint Joseph's L 61-78 42%     11 - 7 2 - 4 -12.8 -4.4 -9.6
  Jan 25, 2025 220   @ Richmond W 72-66 61%     12 - 7 3 - 4 +5.2 +6.1 -0.4
  Feb 01, 2025 81   George Mason L 60-64 40%     12 - 8 3 - 5 +0.8 +1.3 -1.0
  Feb 04, 2025 80   @ Dayton L 68-76 22%    
  Feb 08, 2025 220   Richmond W 73-65 78%    
  Feb 12, 2025 152   @ Massachusetts L 75-76 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 124   George Washington W 74-72 61%    
  Feb 18, 2025 128   Loyola Chicago W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 191   @ Fordham W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 25, 2025 105   Saint Louis W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 28, 2025 38   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-77 12%    
  Mar 05, 2025 128   @ Loyola Chicago L 70-72 40%    
  Mar 08, 2025 95   St. Bonaventure L 69-70 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 1.7 0.1 3.6 4th
5th 0.8 4.3 0.8 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 4.5 2.7 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 1.7 7.4 0.6 9.7 7th
8th 0.1 6.0 4.1 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 2.1 9.1 0.6 11.8 9th
10th 0.2 6.6 5.1 0.0 11.9 10th
11th 0.0 2.2 8.6 0.9 11.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 6.0 4.2 0.1 10.7 12th
13th 0.1 2.6 4.9 0.5 8.2 13th
14th 0.0 1.0 2.9 1.0 0.0 5.0 14th
15th 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.7 15th
Total 0.2 2.1 6.5 14.5 22.1 23.0 17.5 9.5 3.8 0.9 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 20.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.9% 4.4% 4.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-7 3.8% 7.1% 7.1% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.5
10-8 9.5% 3.4% 3.4% 12.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.2
9-9 17.5% 2.3% 2.3% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 17.1
8-10 23.0% 1.1% 1.1% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 22.7
7-11 22.1% 0.3% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.0
6-12 14.5% 0.5% 0.5% 13.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.4
5-13 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 6.5
4-14 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 2.1
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 12.6 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 98.6 0.0%