Davidson
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#140
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#160
Pace64.8#274
Improvement-2.2#275

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#127
First Shot+1.5#126
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#174
Layup/Dunks-0.5#199
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#80
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement-4.5#344

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#190
First Shot-2.8#269
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#38
Layups/Dunks-1.2#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#298
Freethrows+0.6#137
Improvement+2.3#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 n/a
.500 or above 68.1% 100.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 21 - 31 - 8
Quad 34 - 75 - 16
Quad 412 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 283   @ Bowling Green W 91-85 70%     1 - 0 +1.6 +10.6 -9.5
  Nov 16, 2024 153   East Tennessee St. W 76-70 63%     2 - 0 +3.6 +11.5 -7.2
  Nov 22, 2024 298   VMI W 93-66 86%     3 - 0 +16.3 +14.4 +1.5
  Nov 27, 2024 12   Arizona L 71-104 7%     3 - 1 -15.0 -2.1 -9.3
  Nov 28, 2024 87   Providence W 69-58 32%     4 - 1 +16.9 +7.6 +10.9
  Nov 29, 2024 9   Gonzaga L 65-90 6%     4 - 2 -6.2 -2.8 -2.8
  Dec 06, 2024 307   Charleston Southern W 73-72 87%     5 - 2 -10.2 -1.8 -8.4
  Dec 10, 2024 243   Charlotte W 75-71 79%     6 - 2 -3.3 +16.4 -18.7
  Dec 14, 2024 337   Detroit Mercy W 86-51 92%     7 - 2 +20.7 +11.8 +10.4
  Dec 18, 2024 155   @ Temple L 61-62 43%     7 - 3 +2.0 -5.8 +7.7
  Dec 21, 2024 289   Bethune-Cookman W 76-63 85%     8 - 3 +2.8 +1.4 +1.6
  Dec 28, 2024 274   Eastern Michigan W 86-64 83%     9 - 3 +12.9 +8.5 +4.8
  Dec 31, 2024 90   @ George Mason L 57-69 24%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -3.5 +1.8 -7.2
  Jan 04, 2025 122   Duquesne W 77-71 56%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +5.6 +15.2 -8.8
  Jan 11, 2025 238   Fordham W 74-64 78%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +3.1 -6.2 +8.8
  Jan 15, 2025 225   @ La Salle L 76-79 57%     11 - 5 2 - 2 -3.7 +3.4 -7.0
  Jan 18, 2025 138   @ Rhode Island L 90-92 39%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +2.1 +19.7 -17.7
  Jan 21, 2025 76   Saint Joseph's L 61-78 36%     11 - 7 2 - 4 -12.3 -5.1 -8.4
  Jan 25, 2025 226   @ Richmond W 72-66 57%     12 - 7 3 - 4 +5.3 +5.2 +0.6
  Feb 01, 2025 90   George Mason L 60-64 43%     12 - 8 3 - 5 -1.0 +0.7 -2.2
  Feb 04, 2025 74   @ Dayton L 63-69 19%     12 - 9 3 - 6 +4.2 -0.2 +3.8
  Feb 08, 2025 226   Richmond W 71-60 76%     13 - 9 4 - 6 +4.8 +14.5 -6.8
  Feb 12, 2025 190   @ Massachusetts W 77-68 50%     14 - 9 5 - 6 +10.2 +11.8 -1.0
  Feb 15, 2025 114   George Washington L 67-74 52%     14 - 10 5 - 7 -6.5 +1.0 -8.0
  Feb 18, 2025 109   Loyola Chicago L 69-77 50%     14 - 11 5 - 8 -7.0 +0.8 -8.2
  Feb 22, 2025 238   @ Fordham W 80-69 60%     15 - 11 6 - 8 +9.6 +3.8 +5.5
  Feb 25, 2025 100   Saint Louis L 56-57 48%     15 - 12 6 - 9 +0.6 -6.9 +7.3
  Feb 28, 2025 35   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 56-80 8%     15 - 13 6 - 10 -7.7 -1.8 -8.8
  Mar 05, 2025 109   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-82 30%     15 - 14 6 - 11 -3.5 +1.6 -4.8
  Mar 08, 2025 110   St. Bonaventure L 61-64 51%     15 - 15 6 - 12 -2.1 -5.6 +3.3
  Mar 12, 2025 226   Richmond W 70-65 67%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 100.0 100.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 100.0% 0.5% 0.5% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 99.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 13.9 17.8 75.6 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.6%
Lose Out 31.9%