N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.2 #304
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 #283
Pace 72.4 #88
Improvement +0.3 #171

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #271 D C D B+ F
Defense #309 D B F C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #307 1.09 #261 -4.0 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #31 0.78 #133 +4.0 #26
Three Pointers 36% #281 0.91 #310 -4.4 #318
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #301 -4.3 #300
Freethrows 20.0 #56 75% #123 14.9 #53
Second Chance 31.2% #162 1.08 #136 0.34 #138
Turnovers 18.4% #299
Total Offense -3.5 #271

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #88 1.14 #158 -1.7 #236
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #173 0.81 #275 -0.6 #226
Three Pointers 37% #278 1.16 #340 -0.9 #216
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #279 -3.2 #280
Freethrows 18.9 #269 69% #35 12.9 #211
Second Chance 27.3% #65 0.99 #102 0.27 #62
Turnovers 11.7% #361
Total Defense -4.7 #309

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #337 0.5% #210
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.6% #266 5.7% #284
Possession Length 17.8 #225 16.2 #32
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #123 0.26 #359
Improvement +2.6 #49 -2.3 #308

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 1.3% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 80.8% 68.0% 86.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Towson (Home) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 32 - 102 - 13
Quad 47 - 69 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 69 @South Carolina L 72 - 91 5% -14  0 - 1 -8 -1 C F C- -6 D- D B+
 Mon, Nov 10 359 South Carolina St. W 85 - 62 83% +14  1 - 1 +5 -7 F F F +9 C A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 360 @Morgan St. W 79 - 73 67% +4  2 - 1 -7 -0 D+ B+ F -7 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 137 @Davidson L 74 - 90 12% -9  2 - 2 -11 +9 A D+ C -21 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 173 @Charlotte L 57 - 74 17% -13  2 - 3 -15 -13 F D F -3 F D+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 346 @NC Central W 69 - 54 53% -1  3 - 3 +6 -10 F C F +16 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 265 Howard L 69 - 73 41% -8  3 - 4 -10 -2 F A+ F -8 F A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 330 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 79 70% -2  4 - 4 -11 +5 C A- D- -16 C F F
 Tue, Dec 16 294 @UNC Greensboro W 71 - 65 37% +6  5 - 4 +1 -1 F D+ D +3 B+ C+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 125 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 24% +1  5 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -0 C- F A -9 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 259 Northeastern L 74 - 85 50% -4  5 - 6 0 - 2 -19 -0 F C+ B- -20 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 242 @Stony Brook L 80 - 81 26% -4  5 - 7 0 - 3 -2 +12 D A+ D -14 F C F
 Thu, Jan 8 184 Elon L 64 - 69 37% -6  5 - 8 0 - 4 -10 -13 F A- F +3 A+ B F
 Thu, Jan 15 138 @William & Mary L 89 - 97 12% -7  5 - 9 0 - 5 -4 +12 A+ C F -15 F B- F
 Mon, Jan 19 230 @Hampton L 61 - 82 24% -5  5 - 10 0 - 6 -22 -5 F F B- -19 D F F
 Thu, Jan 22 126 Hofstra W 79 - 78 24% -5  6 - 10 1 - 6 +0 +9 C- A+ B- -9 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 157 Towson L 67 - 72 31%
 Thu, Jan 29 202 @Monmouth L 68 - 77 21%
 Sat, Jan 31 203 @Drexel L 65 - 73 21%
 Thu, Feb 5 164 @College of Charleston L 72 - 83 16%
 Sat, Feb 7 190 Campbell L 79 - 82 38%
 Fri, Feb 13 230 Hampton L 70 - 74 35%
 Thu, Feb 19 164 College of Charleston L 75 - 80 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 184 @Elon L 75 - 84 19%
 Thu, Feb 26 125 @UNC Wilmington L 66 - 80 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 138 William & Mary L 79 - 86 27%
 Tue, Mar 3 190 @Campbell L 76 - 85 20%
Totals 9 - 18 4 - 14 -8 -3 D C D -5 D B F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 0.4 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.1 2.9 10th
11th 0.2 1.8 3.5 0.8 6.4 11th
12th 0.4 2.6 7.0 8.6 2.9 0.1 21.7 12th
13th 6.9 16.9 21.3 15.0 5.5 0.5 66.1 13th
Total 6.9 17.3 23.9 22.3 16.0 8.2 3.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.3% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 3.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.7
6-12 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.2
5-13 16.0% 16.0
4-14 22.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 22.3
3-15 23.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.9
2-16 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.3
1-17 6.9% 6.9
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.6 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.7%