N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.2#323
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#252
Pace72.4#109
Improvement-1.5#297

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#320
First Shot-3.4#269
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#306
Layup/Dunks-4.9#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#302
Freethrows+2.9#48
Improvement-0.3#206

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#294
First Shot-5.0#330
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#103
Layups/Dunks-4.6#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#214
Freethrows-0.1#186
Improvement-1.3#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.9 15.6
.500 or above 5.7% 9.5% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 6.4% 8.9% 4.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 52.0% 45.4% 57.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Away) - 45.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 47 - 79 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 89 @South Carolina L 72-91 6%     0 - 1 -10.2 -2.2 -6.5
  Mon, Nov 10 352 South Carolina St. W 85-62 73%     1 - 1 +7.4 -5.7 +10.0
  Tue, Nov 18 359 @Morgan St. W 79-73 58%     2 - 1 -5.2 +1.1 -6.2
  Fri, Nov 28 137 @Davidson L 74-90 10%     2 - 2 -11.4 +7.8 -20.1
  Tue, Dec 2 186 @Charlotte L 57-74 17%     2 - 3 -15.9 -12.8 -4.3
  Sat, Dec 6 336 @NC Central L 71-72 45%    
  Tue, Dec 9 315 Howard L 75-76 47%    
  Fri, Dec 12 341 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-63 67%    
  Tue, Dec 16 293 @UNC Greensboro L 71-76 32%    
  Mon, Dec 29 109 UNC Wilmington L 66-76 17%    
  Wed, Dec 31 227 Northeastern L 73-75 42%    
  Sat, Jan 3 222 @Stony Brook L 67-76 22%    
  Thu, Jan 8 223 Elon L 79-81 41%    
  Thu, Jan 15 118 @William & Mary L 73-88 8%    
  Mon, Jan 19 212 @Hampton L 67-76 20%    
  Thu, Jan 22 136 Hofstra L 67-75 24%    
  Sat, Jan 24 129 Towson L 65-74 22%    
  Thu, Jan 29 205 @Monmouth L 68-78 20%    
  Sat, Jan 31 256 @Drexel L 66-73 27%    
  Thu, Feb 5 180 @College of Charleston L 69-80 17%    
  Sat, Feb 7 224 Campbell L 76-78 42%    
  Fri, Feb 13 212 Hampton L 69-75 30%    
  Thu, Feb 19 180 College of Charleston L 72-77 34%    
  Sat, Feb 21 223 @Elon L 76-84 23%    
  Thu, Feb 26 109 @UNC Wilmington L 63-79 8%    
  Sat, Feb 28 118 William & Mary L 76-85 20%    
  Tue, Mar 3 224 @Campbell L 73-81 23%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.9 0.1 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.6 0.2 4.6 8th
9th 0.3 2.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.4 1.7 0.1 8.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.7 2.9 0.3 12.4 11th
12th 0.2 1.6 5.1 7.6 4.7 0.7 0.0 20.0 12th
13th 3.1 8.0 11.6 10.2 4.9 0.9 0.0 38.7 13th
Total 3.1 8.2 13.2 15.9 15.7 13.9 10.8 7.9 4.8 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2
15-3 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 52.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 34.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 8.7% 8.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 3.8% 3.8% 13.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.5% 5.1% 5.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 0.8% 4.5% 4.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.9
9-9 3.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
8-10 4.8% 4.8
7-11 7.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 7.9
6-12 10.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.7
5-13 13.9% 13.9
4-14 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.7
3-15 15.9% 15.9
2-16 13.2% 13.2
1-17 8.2% 8.2
0-18 3.1% 3.1
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%