UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#111
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#106
Pace64.1#289
Improvement+3.2#55

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#78
First Shot+1.6#122
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#54
Layup/Dunks-0.6#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#84
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#284
Freethrows+3.8#17
Improvement+2.2#84

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#178
First Shot+0.6#159
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#261
Layups/Dunks+1.2#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#134
Freethrows-1.0#256
Improvement+1.1#125
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.3% 100.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round76.3% 100.0% 0.0%
Second Round6.3% 8.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 38 - 38 - 4
Quad 417 - 325 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 251   Georgia Southern W 92-84 85%     1 - 0 +0.4 +6.3 -6.6
  Nov 15, 2024 349   @ South Carolina Upstate W 89-85 89%     2 - 0 -6.0 +1.5 -7.9
  Nov 19, 2024 18   @ Kansas L 66-84 8%     2 - 1 +1.6 +4.8 -3.2
  Nov 27, 2024 256   Colgate L 59-72 86%     2 - 2 -20.9 -9.6 -13.4
  Nov 29, 2024 170   Sam Houston St. W 69-60 75%     3 - 2 +5.7 -2.0 +8.5
  Nov 30, 2024 178   Appalachian St. W 76-61 76%     4 - 2 +11.2 +16.7 -3.2
  Dec 03, 2024 163   @ East Carolina W 67-53 54%     5 - 2 +16.6 -2.9 +20.0
  Dec 07, 2024 167   Marshall W 78-69 74%     6 - 2 +5.8 +0.3 +5.1
  Dec 14, 2024 315   @ Howard L 83-88 83%     6 - 3 -11.5 +3.0 -14.4
  Dec 18, 2024 187   Florida Gulf Coast W 79-66 77%     7 - 3 +8.8 +11.8 -1.5
  Dec 21, 2024 203   UNC Asheville W 85-74 80%     8 - 3 +5.8 +15.1 -8.2
  Jan 02, 2025 150   Towson L 61-65 OT 71%     8 - 4 0 - 1 -6.2 -9.8 +3.4
  Jan 04, 2025 220   Campbell W 77-69 82%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +2.0 +10.4 -7.6
  Jan 09, 2025 247   @ Monmouth W 64-55 71%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +7.0 -5.2 +13.0
  Jan 11, 2025 215   @ Hofstra L 63-66 65%     10 - 5 2 - 2 -3.3 +3.8 -7.5
  Jan 16, 2025 209   Northeastern W 80-72 80%     11 - 5 3 - 2 +2.6 +10.3 -7.2
  Jan 20, 2025 232   William & Mary W 85-74 83%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +4.3 +6.1 -1.9
  Jan 23, 2025 148   @ College of Charleston W 85-83 50%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +5.6 +13.8 -8.2
  Jan 25, 2025 211   Hampton W 83-62 81%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +15.4 +13.1 +3.6
  Jan 30, 2025 328   @ N.C. A&T W 83-59 86%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +16.2 +13.0 +4.8
  Feb 01, 2025 324   Stony Brook W 80-70 92%     16 - 5 8 - 2 -2.5 +2.9 -4.9
  Feb 06, 2025 228   @ Delaware W 77-67 67%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +9.1 +4.4 +5.3
  Feb 08, 2025 183   @ Drexel W 81-79 2OT 58%     18 - 5 10 - 2 +3.4 -0.2 +3.3
  Feb 13, 2025 148   College of Charleston W 86-66 70%     19 - 5 11 - 2 +18.1 +17.0 +2.1
  Feb 15, 2025 206   Elon L 70-81 80%     19 - 6 11 - 3 -16.3 +5.8 -24.1
  Feb 22, 2025 211   @ Hampton L 70-83 64%     19 - 7 11 - 4 -13.1 +3.6 -17.8
  Feb 24, 2025 232   @ William & Mary W 79-70 68%     20 - 7 12 - 4 +7.9 +11.4 -2.7
  Feb 27, 2025 220   @ Campbell W 79-60 65%     21 - 7 13 - 4 +18.5 +14.1 +5.9
  Mar 01, 2025 228   Delaware W 88-58 83%     22 - 7 14 - 4 +23.6 +9.0 +14.8
  Mar 09, 2025 211   Hampton W 79-65 73%     23 - 7 +11.1 +10.7 +1.4
  Mar 10, 2025 148   College of Charleston W 68-67 61%     24 - 7 +1.9 +2.0 +0.0
  Mar 11, 2025 228   Delaware W 83-76 76%    
Projected Record 25 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 76.3% 76.3% 13.3 5.7 38.9 31.2 0.5 23.7
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 76.3% 76.3% 0.0% 13.3 5.7 38.9 31.2 0.5 23.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 76.3% 100.0% 13.3 7.5 51.0 40.9 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 23.7%