UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#117
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#113
Pace65.0#270
Improvement+2.4#78

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#90
First Shot+1.0#146
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#59
Layup/Dunks-0.9#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#85
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#286
Freethrows+3.6#22
Improvement+1.5#101

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#176
First Shot+0.6#160
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#270
Layups/Dunks+1.2#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#136
Freethrows-1.0#258
Improvement+0.9#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.0% 26.9% 21.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 33.0% 40.9% 18.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.0% 26.9% 21.5%
Second Round1.9% 2.0% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Away) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 38 - 48 - 5
Quad 415 - 323 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 254   Georgia Southern W 92-84 84%     1 - 0 +0.2 +6.9 -7.5
  Nov 15, 2024 346   @ South Carolina Upstate W 89-85 87%     2 - 0 -5.5 +1.7 -7.6
  Nov 19, 2024 7   @ Kansas L 66-84 5%     2 - 1 +3.5 +5.4 -1.9
  Nov 27, 2024 239   Colgate L 59-72 82%     2 - 2 -20.1 -9.3 -12.9
  Nov 29, 2024 181   Sam Houston St. W 69-60 73%     3 - 2 +5.4 -1.2 +7.4
  Nov 30, 2024 145   Appalachian St. W 76-61 65%     4 - 2 +13.7 +17.0 -1.0
  Dec 03, 2024 150   @ East Carolina W 67-53 48%     5 - 2 +17.3 -1.8 +19.6
  Dec 07, 2024 182   Marshall W 78-69 73%     6 - 2 +5.4 +0.2 +4.8
  Dec 14, 2024 310   @ Howard L 83-88 80%     6 - 3 -11.1 +1.0 -12.0
  Dec 18, 2024 164   Florida Gulf Coast W 79-66 69%     7 - 3 +10.7 +13.2 -1.1
  Dec 21, 2024 172   UNC Asheville W 85-74 71%     8 - 3 +8.1 +16.3 -7.1
  Jan 02, 2025 160   Towson L 61-65 OT 68%     8 - 4 0 - 1 -6.1 -8.5 +2.2
  Jan 04, 2025 178   Campbell W 77-69 72%     9 - 4 1 - 1 +4.7 +11.8 -6.4
  Jan 09, 2025 253   @ Monmouth W 64-55 71%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +6.2 -4.7 +11.6
  Jan 11, 2025 174   @ Hofstra L 63-66 53%     10 - 5 2 - 2 -1.1 +4.6 -6.1
  Jan 16, 2025 206   Northeastern W 80-72 76%     11 - 5 3 - 2 +3.3 +10.4 -6.7
  Jan 20, 2025 208   William & Mary W 85-74 77%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +6.1 +5.9 +0.1
  Jan 23, 2025 131   @ College of Charleston W 85-83 45%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +6.2 +12.7 -6.5
  Jan 25, 2025 287   Hampton W 83-62 87%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +11.6 +11.0 +1.9
  Jan 30, 2025 333   @ N.C. A&T W 83-59 85%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +15.6 +10.8 +6.3
  Feb 01, 2025 318   Stony Brook W 80-70 91%     16 - 5 8 - 2 -1.7 +3.9 -5.1
  Feb 06, 2025 232   @ Delaware W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 195   @ Drexel W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 13, 2025 131   College of Charleston W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 175   Elon W 73-67 73%    
  Feb 20, 2025 208   @ William & Mary W 80-77 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 287   @ Hampton W 73-66 73%    
  Feb 27, 2025 178   @ Campbell W 69-68 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 232   Delaware W 83-74 82%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.3 13.0 11.7 3.9 33.0 1st
2nd 0.2 3.8 14.9 11.7 3.1 0.2 33.7 2nd
3rd 1.1 8.7 6.1 0.7 16.5 3rd
4th 0.2 3.5 5.0 0.6 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.0 0.7 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.5 8.5 18.3 25.9 25.3 14.8 4.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 95.1% 3.9    3.2 0.7
15-3 79.3% 11.7    7.2 4.4 0.1
14-4 51.3% 13.0    4.6 6.5 1.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 16.4% 4.3    0.5 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.1
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.0% 33.0 15.5 13.0 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 4.1% 37.4% 37.4% 12.3 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.5
15-3 14.8% 31.3% 31.3% 13.0 0.0 1.1 2.5 1.0 0.0 10.1
14-4 25.3% 28.2% 28.2% 13.4 0.5 3.5 2.9 0.2 18.2
13-5 25.9% 24.7% 24.7% 13.7 0.2 1.9 3.6 0.7 19.5
12-6 18.3% 21.9% 21.9% 13.9 0.0 1.0 2.3 0.7 0.0 14.3
11-7 8.5% 12.6% 12.6% 14.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 7.5
10-8 2.5% 7.6% 7.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3
9-9 0.6% 4.9% 4.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% 13.5 0.1 2.8 9.6 10.5 2.0 0.0 75.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 12.3 3.3 63.8 29.6 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%