UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.3 113
Expected Predictive Rating +5.6 89
Pace 64.0 305
Improvement -0.7 217

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #107 D+ B B B D+
Defense C #143 C+ C+ D- B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 296 55% 254 -3.4 295
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 95 34% 298 +0.6 138
Three Pointers 41% 182 34% 163 +0.3 161
1st FG Attempt 0.97 251 -2.5 253
Second Chance 34.2% 78 1.09 90 0.37 68
Turnovers 15.0% 63
Freethrows 0.36 38 71% 237 0.25 74
Total Offense +2.5 107

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 345 61% 276 +3.5 70
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 62 41% 289 -2.2 335
Three Pointers 45% 66 30% 35 +0.7 156
1st FG Attempt 0.98 111 +1.9 111
Second Chance 26.9% 60 1.10 290 0.30 130
Turnovers 14.0% 333
Freethrows 0.25 30 74% 287 0.18 47
Total Defense +0.8 143

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.8 292 -1.0 36
Shot Type Accuracy -1.7 231 -0.9 148
Possession Length 18.7 321 17.4 197
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 325 0.18 194
Improvement -0.3 #204 -0.5 #217

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28% 29% 25%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 88% 91% 74%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round28% 29% 25%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Elon (Home) - 80.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 39 - 49 - 5
Quad 415 - 225 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 147 @Kent St. L 77 - 86 48% -8  0% 0 - 1 D+ -5 C +0 F A- A+ D+ -5 F B- D-
 Sat, Nov 15 297 South Carolina Upstate W 73 - 60 90% +8  77% 1 - 1 C+ +2 B- +4 D+ A C- C -0 B D- C
 Tue, Nov 18 252 East Carolina W 85 - 60 85% +12  89% 2 - 1 A- +17 A- +11 A+ C C- B+ +7 B B+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 233 @Radford W 81 - 73 66% +8  95% 3 - 1 B- +7 B- +4 B B+ D- B- +3 D B+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 270 SE Louisiana W 70 - 57 87% -1  37% 4 - 1 C+ +4 C+ +2 D C- A- B- +3 B- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 166 Navy W 87 - 57 74% +21  99% 5 - 1 A+ +27 A+ +19 A+ A+ F A +10 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 62 98% +12  79% 6 - 1 C+ +4 C+ +3 B- C- A C+ +1 D+ A C-
 Wed, Dec 3 164 Marshall W 70 - 69 74% +1  57% 7 - 1 C- -2 C +0 F C+ A+ C- -3 B+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 290 @Louisiana W 70 - 63 77% +3  75% 8 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 D C C+ B- +3 C+ C- D-
 Sat, Dec 13 155 @Valparaiso W 73 - 70 51% -2  38% 9 - 1 B- +6 B+ +8 F+ A+ B+ C- -2 A- F+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 237 Howard L 66 - 67 84% -4  28% 9 - 2 D -8 D- -7 F A C C- -2 C C- C
 Mon, Dec 29 286 @N.C. A&T W 87 - 78 76% -1  48% 10 - 2 1 - 0 C+ +5 C+ +3 C D+ D- C+ +1 C A F
 Wed, Dec 31 217 Drexel W 65 - 53 81% +8  92% 11 - 2 2 - 0 B- +6 C +0 F+ B A+ B+ +8 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 248 Hampton W 49 - 45 85% +4  81% 12 - 2 3 - 0 C- -4 F -20 F D+ D+ A+ +17 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 269 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 73% +1  48% 13 - 2 4 - 0 B- +6 B- +4 F B C C+ +1 C- B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 213 @Stony Brook W 75 - 71 62% -8  26% 14 - 2 5 - 0 C+ +4 B +6 B- A C C -1 B- F D
 Sat, Jan 17 192 Campbell W 78 - 75 79% -4  22% 15 - 2 6 - 0 C- -2 C +1 C- F A+ C- -3 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 145 @William & Mary L 70 - 77 47% -11  0% 15 - 3 6 - 1 C- -3 D- -7 F C C B- +4 B B F+
 Sat, Jan 24 248 @Hampton W 75 - 67 68% +3  66% 16 - 3 7 - 1 B- +6 A +14 C A+ A- D -6 D D- F
 Thu, Jan 29 172 @Towson W 82 - 73 54% +3  82% 17 - 3 8 - 1 B+ +11 A+ +18 A- B- A+ D -6 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 145 William & Mary L 78 - 85 69% +2  68% 17 - 4 8 - 2 D -9 B- +4 A+ D B- F -13 B F D
 Mon, Feb 9 156 @College of Charleston W 76 - 64 52% +9  97% 18 - 4 9 - 2 A- +15 B- +5 D B+ A+ A +10 B+ B- B
 Thu, Feb 12 215 Elon W 80 - 71 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 117 Hofstra W 72 - 69 62%
 Thu, Feb 19 208 Monmouth W 74 - 65 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 192 @Campbell W 78 - 76 58%
 Thu, Feb 26 286 N.C. A&T W 81 - 67 90%
 Sat, Feb 28 156 College of Charleston W 76 - 70 73%
 Tue, Mar 3 215 @Elon W 77 - 74 61%
Totals 23 - 6 14 - 4 +3 C+ +2 D+ B B C +1 C+ C+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D+ D+ C C- 34% 25% 41% D+ D+ B- B- B B B C- B C D+ D+ B+ C+ 31% 24% 45% B+ C+ B D+ C+ D- B+ D+ B
1.12 55% 34% 34% -2 -1 0.97 34% 1.1 .37 15% .36 71% .25 1.07 61% 41% 30% -1 -1 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 14% .25 74% .26
Nov
10		 Kent St. C F A- F F 51% 15% 34% B+ F B A A- A+ D C D+ D+ F A- F F 23% 15% 63% B- F A+ F B- D- C- B C
1.07 42% 44% 19% -15 +2 0.75 35% 1.2 .42 10% .28 72% .20 1.19 82% 29% 43% +13 0 1.27 23% 1.4 .33 15% .39 71% .28
Nov
15		 South Carolina Upstate B- C- D- B D+ 52% 30% 18% D+ D+ A+ D+ A C- A+ B- A+ C B C+ B- C+ 27% 38% 36% A+ B F C D- C F+ D+ F+
1.19 57% 31% 38% -2 0 0.98 50% 1.0 .50 16% .54 75% .41 0.98 50% 35% 31% -5 -3 0.87 35% 0.9 .32 18% .36 72% .26
Nov
18		 East Carolina A- A+ F+ A+ A+ 23% 23% 53% D A+ C C- C C- A+ C+ A+ B+ B D+ A- C 15% 43% 43% A+ B A- B B+ D A F B+
1.27 80% 30% 48% +14 -1 1.28 31% 1.1 .34 18% .51 75% .38 0.90 50% 39% 26% -6 -5 0.81 27% 0.9 .24 15% .25 79% .19
Nov
21		 Radford B- B D B+ B 49% 13% 38% B B A+ D B+ D- B- F D B- B A F D- 24% 14% 61% B D B B B+ B C+ F+ C-
1.16 65% 33% 39% +6 +2 1.17 45% 1.0 .45 21% .38 57% .22 1.04 50% 29% 40% +2 0 1.06 25% 0.9 .22 20% .34 79% .27
Nov
26		 SE Louisiana C+ A+ B F D+ 26% 28% 47% D- D C D C- A- A+ C+ A+ B- F F+ A+ C+ 21% 27% 52% A- B- A- B- B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.12 82% 42% 20% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.0 .31 16% .57 77% .44 0.91 91% 43% 15% -7 -2 0.85 21% 0.9 .18 11% .22 50% .11
Nov
28		 Navy A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 26% 35% 39% F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A C+ A A A- A- A+ A+ 39% 19% 43% D A+ C- A+ A+ D- A+ F A-
1.34 58% 56% 44% +13 -3 1.22 57% 1.4 .79 23% .34 76% .26 0.87 48% 30% 22% -13 0 0.76 32% 0.6 .18 15% .20 91% .18
Nov
29		 Gardner-Webb C+ A- D+ A+ B 32% 21% 47% D B- F A+ C- A F C+ F C+ B- A+ F+ D+ 35% 14% 51% C D+ B A+ A C- B- F C
1.27 72% 33% 44% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.4 .34 10% .18 73% .13 0.90 50% 0% 38% -5 +1 0.94 20% 0.5 .10 20% .24 77% .18
Dec
3		 Marshall C B+ F D- F 21% 38% 40% F F A D- C+ A+ A+ B A+ C- F D+ A+ B- 17% 42% 42% A+ B+ C+ F F C- A F C+
1.12 67% 13% 29% -11 -3 0.74 43% 0.8 .33 10% .69 74% .51 1.11 88% 40% 25% 0 -4 0.94 31% 1.5 .47 18% .18 100% .18
Dec
6		 Louisiana C D- F B D- 47% 12% 42% B- D C+ C- C C+ A C- A- B- B- C B- C+ 27% 25% 48% D- C+ B F C- D- C- F D+
1.10 50% 20% 39% -3 +2 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 17% .45 71% .32 0.99 50% 38% 32% -3 -1 0.92 22% 1.1 .25 14% .24 77% .18
Dec
13		 Valparaiso B+ D+ C- F F+ 35% 20% 46% C F+ A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ F A+ C- F A+ A+ A- 28% 34% 38% B A- F C+ F+ F F+ D F
1.15 56% 33% 24% -8 0 0.85 51% 0.9 .47 14% .61 58% .35 1.10 71% 24% 21% -8 -2 0.80 43% 1.0 .43 9% .42 75% .31
Dec
20		 Howard D- C- D- F F 36% 28% 36% F F B+ B+ A C B- C- C+ C- C A F D 33% 39% 27% A+ C C- C C- C A+ F A-
0.98 56% 29% 17% -13 -1 0.74 39% 1.3 .49 19% .37 70% .26 1.00 53% 25% 43% -3 -3 0.90 35% 1.1 .38 21% .23 83% .19
Dec
29		 N.C. A&T C+ F+ C A+ C 41% 20% 39% C C C+ F D+ D- A+ A A+ C+ B F B- C- 32% 33% 35% B C A+ F A F C B B-
1.15 48% 40% 45% +3 0 1.08 29% 0.8 .23 16% .55 77% .43 1.03 50% 47% 30% -1 -2 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 11% .36 71% .25
Dec
31		 Drexel C F A+ F D- 30% 37% 33% F F+ C A B A+ A+ D A+ B+ B F+ A+ A+ 18% 25% 57% A+ A+ F F+ F C- F B- F
1.08 38% 50% 21% -8 -3 0.81 31% 1.3 .40 10% .52 71% .37 0.88 50% 45% 12% -18 -2 0.61 38% 1.1 .40 18% .39 63% .24
Jan
3		 Hampton F B- C- F F 29% 33% 38% F F C- D D+ D+ B F F A+ B C A+ A+ 33% 35% 33% B A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ D- A+
0.82 67% 36% 19% -7 -2 0.83 28% 0.9 .26 18% .43 38% .16 0.75 50% 35% 13% -14 -2 0.69 22% 0.7 .15 13% .17 78% .14
Jan
8		 Northeastern B- F F B+ F 50% 13% 38% B+ F B- B B C A+ A+ A+ C+ D A+ B- C 51% 15% 35% D C- A- D B- F F A+ D+
1.20 46% 17% 39% -6 +2 0.94 36% 1.1 .39 18% .57 88% .50 1.07 64% 25% 32% 0 +2 1.05 22% 1.1 .24 10% .36 58% .21
Jan
10		 Stony Brook B D F A+ B- 35% 17% 48% C+ B- C- A+ A C D+ F F C A F A B- 30% 21% 49% B B- A- F F D A+ F A+
1.15 53% 13% 48% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.4 .41 15% .27 47% .13 1.08 44% 73% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 2.1 .47 15% .11 83% .09
Jan
17		 Campbell C B- D C- C- 54% 23% 23% B- C- C- F F A+ A+ A- A+ C- F F C+ F 43% 15% 41% C+ F C+ A+ A+ B D- C+ D
1.15 64% 33% 33% +2 +1 1.08 29% 0.7 .20 10% .41 80% .33 1.11 70% 57% 32% +7 +1 1.17 32% 0.5 .16 21% .45 71% .32
Jan
22		 William & Mary D- F F D F 27% 12% 61% D+ F C+ C- C C A+ D A+ B- D+ F A B 37% 6% 58% C- B A+ F B F+ D+ B- C-
0.96 38% 17% 30% -11 0 0.80 32% 0.9 .30 19% .56 67% .38 1.06 63% 67% 27% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 14% .35 73% .26
Jan
24		 Hampton A A- D+ F+ C 44% 29% 27% D C B A+ A+ A- A+ B- A+ D F D+ C+ F+ 24% 31% 45% B D B F D- F A+ A+ A+
1.25 72% 33% 27% +2 -1 1.05 33% 1.4 .47 13% .52 70% .37 1.12 67% 40% 32% +1 -2 1.00 30% 1.3 .39 13% .15 63% .10
Jan
29		 Towson A+ F A+ A+ A 24% 24% 52% D- A- B- B- B- A+ A+ B A+ D B- F A+ F 37% 35% 27% B- F+ A+ C A+ F F C F
1.28 42% 58% 42% +8 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .31 6% .40 75% .30 1.14 53% 72% 21% +5 -2 1.08 18% 0.8 .14 8% .39 70% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 William & Mary B- A A- A+ A+ 27% 25% 47% F A+ F+ C+ D B- C F D- F A- A+ F B 43% 17% 40% B B F F F D F C F
1.16 71% 46% 46% +14 -1 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 18% .29 56% .16 1.26 50% 13% 42% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 15% .42 75% .31
Feb
9		 College of Charleston B- A+ F C+ D+ 23% 37% 40% F D C A+ B+ A+ B C+ B A C+ F A+ B- 27% 33% 40% A+ B+ A F B- B D- F F
1.12 77% 14% 35% -4 -3 0.88 30% 1.3 .40 7% .27 71% .19 0.94 58% 47% 22% -4 -2 0.89 21% 1.3 .27 19% .42 83% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.6 15.8 29.5 27.7 11.4 88.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.4 3.6 1.0 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 0.5 1.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.1 8.4 19.5 30.5 27.7 11.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 11.4    11.4
15-3 100.0% 27.7    27.4 0.3
14-4 96.8% 29.5    25.9 3.6
13-5 81.4% 15.8    8.4 6.8 0.6
12-6 42.1% 3.6    0.4 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.0
11-7 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 88.1% 88.1 73.5 12.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 11.4% 38.6% 38.6% 12.1 0.4 3.0 1.0 7.0
15-3 27.7% 31.1% 31.1% 12.7 0.1 2.9 5.0 0.6 0.0 19.1
14-4 30.5% 28.1% 28.1% 13.0 0.0 1.6 5.1 1.8 0.0 21.9
13-5 19.5% 22.3% 22.3% 13.3 0.5 2.4 1.5 0.1 15.1
12-6 8.4% 19.4% 19.4% 13.4 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 6.8
11-7 2.1% 19.2% 19.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.7
10-8 0.4% 2.8% 2.8% 14.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.0% 28.0% 0.0% 12.9 72.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.4% 100.0% 12.1 9.8 66.9 23.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6%