UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.4 #125
Expected Predictive Rating +5.0 #95
Pace 64.3 #301
Improvement -1.9 #268

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #139 D B- B- B D+
Defense #120 B- B- D- A- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #281 1.08 #274 -3.4 #296
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #117 0.67 #307 +0.1 #171
Three Pointers 41% #171 0.97 #247 -0.7 #199
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #291 -4.0 #289
Freethrows 19.5 #86 73% #165 14.3 #85
Second Chance 35.5% #53 1.04 #182 0.37 #78
Turnovers 15.3% #109
Total Offense +0.8 #139

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #346 1.25 #284 +3.6 #69
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #72 0.80 #251 -1.9 #321
Three Pointers 46% #53 0.89 #41 +0.6 #152
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #111 +2.3 #109
Freethrows 13.3 #23 75% #294 10.0 #32
Second Chance 27.1% #60 1.06 #206 0.29 #98
Turnovers 13.7% #329
Total Defense +1.5 #120

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #270 -2.1% #34
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.8% #287 -2.4% #142
Possession Length 18.9 #321 17.4 #202
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #323 0.19 #235
Improvement -3.6 #342 +1.7 #82

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.7% 24.2% 20.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.9% 98.6%
Conference Champion 63.4% 72.3% 48.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.7% 24.2% 20.2%
Second Round1.6% 1.7% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Away) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 38 - 58 - 6
Quad 416 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 148 @Kent St. L 77 - 86 44% -8  0 - 1 -5 +1 F A- A+ -6 F B+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 303 South Carolina Upstate W 73 - 60 89% +8  1 - 1 +2 +7 D A+ D -3 B D C
 Tue, Nov 18 267 East Carolina W 85 - 60 85% +12  2 - 1 +16 +14 A+ C C +3 B B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 253 @Radford W 81 - 73 66% +8  3 - 1 +6 +5 B B F +1 D+ B+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 272 SE Louisiana W 70 - 57 86% -1  4 - 1 +4 +4 F D+ A+ +1 B B+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 194 Navy W 87 - 57 77% +21  5 - 1 +25 +20 A+ A+ F +7 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 62 98% +12  6 - 1 +4 +5 B- D- A+ -1 D+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 163 Marshall W 70 - 69 71% +1  7 - 1 -2 +3 F B- A+ -5 A- F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 312 @Louisiana W 70 - 63 79% +3  8 - 1 +1 +4 D- C C -2 C- D+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 167 @Valparaiso W 73 - 70 51% -2  9 - 1 +5 +11 D- A+ A- -5 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 20 265 Howard L 66 - 67 85% -4  9 - 2 -10 -5 F A+ C- -5 C D B-
 Mon, Dec 29 304 @N.C. A&T W 87 - 78 76% -1  10 - 2 1 - 0 +4 +5 C D+ F -1 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 203 Drexel W 65 - 53 78% +8  11 - 2 2 - 0 +6 +2 F B A+ +6 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 3 230 Hampton W 49 - 45 81% +4  12 - 2 3 - 0 -3 -17 F D D +15 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 259 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 67% +1  13 - 2 4 - 0 +7 +8 F B C -1 C B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 242 @Stony Brook W 75 - 71 65% -8  14 - 2 5 - 0 +3 +6 B- A C -3 C+ F D
 Sat, Jan 17 190 Campbell W 78 - 75 76% -4  15 - 2 6 - 0 -2 +4 C F A+ -6 F A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 22 138 @William & Mary L 70 - 77 42% -11  15 - 3 6 - 1 -3 -2 F C C+ -0 B+ B F
 Sat, Jan 24 230 @Hampton W 69 - 66 63%
 Thu, Jan 29 157 @Towson L 64 - 65 46%
 Thu, Feb 5 138 William & Mary W 78 - 74 64%
 Mon, Feb 9 164 @College of Charleston L 72 - 73 49%
 Thu, Feb 12 184 Elon W 78 - 71 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 126 Hofstra W 71 - 68 63%
 Thu, Feb 19 202 Monmouth W 72 - 64 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 190 @Campbell W 76 - 75 55%
 Thu, Feb 26 304 N.C. A&T W 80 - 66 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 164 College of Charleston W 75 - 69 71%
 Tue, Mar 3 184 @Elon W 75 - 74 53%
Totals 22 - 7 13 - 5 +2 +1 D B- B- +2 B- B- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 5.9 16.4 19.7 13.7 6.0 1.4 63.4 1st
2nd 0.0 2.4 8.5 5.2 0.6 0.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.6 3.1 0.3 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 3.0 0.3 4.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 0.6 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.1 7th
8th 0.2 0.3 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.2 11.0 17.8 22.0 20.4 13.7 6.0 1.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4
16-2 100.0% 6.0    6.0
15-3 99.9% 13.7    13.3 0.3
14-4 96.9% 19.7    16.5 3.1 0.1
13-5 74.8% 16.4    8.1 6.5 1.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 32.9% 5.9    0.8 2.3 2.0 0.7 0.1
11-7 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 63.4% 63.4 46.2 12.4 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.4% 35.1% 35.1% 11.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.9
16-2 6.0% 36.0% 36.0% 12.4 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.1 3.9
15-3 13.7% 30.4% 30.4% 12.8 0.0 1.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.5
14-4 20.4% 26.1% 26.1% 13.0 0.0 1.0 3.2 1.1 0.0 15.0
13-5 22.0% 22.8% 22.8% 13.3 0.5 2.6 1.8 0.1 17.0
12-6 17.8% 19.5% 19.5% 13.5 0.2 1.7 1.5 0.1 14.3
11-7 11.0% 13.6% 13.6% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 9.5
10-8 5.2% 9.4% 9.4% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.7
9-9 2.0% 4.2% 4.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
8-10 0.5% 3.8% 3.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.7% 22.7% 0.0% 13.1 77.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.7 31.3 62.6 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%