Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.1 #157
Expected Predictive Rating +0.8 #153
Pace 60.9 #358
Improvement +0.5 #155

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #243 F C C D- F
Defense #99 B B- C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #308 1.11 #235 -3.7 #301
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #25 0.76 #162 +4.0 #29
Three Pointers 36% #290 0.84 #347 -5.7 #335
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #330 -5.4 #328
Freethrows 13.7 #337 74% #153 10.1 #319
Second Chance 36.9% #29 0.90 #342 0.33 #152
Turnovers 16.6% #182
Total Offense -2.6 #243

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #216 1.13 #147 +1.0 #136
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #140 0.83 #293 -1.2 #278
Three Pointers 41% #186 0.85 #18 +3.4 #58
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #76 +3.2 #76
Freethrows 15.3 #82 74% #247 11.3 #98
Second Chance 26.1% #39 1.08 #238 0.28 #94
Turnovers 16.1% #205
Total Defense +2.7 #99

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #341 -0.4% #131
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.7% #302 -6.0% #73
Possession Length 18.8 #315 18.1 #297
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #191 0.14 #62
Improvement -1.2 #250 +1.7 #79

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 10.9% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 83.1% 89.5% 68.8%
.500 or above in Conference 80.6% 87.7% 64.7%
Conference Champion 5.4% 7.2% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 1.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round9.8% 10.9% 7.4%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Away) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 411 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 324 Loyola Maryland W 67 - 56 83% +4  1 - 0 +1 -7 F F C- +9 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 4 @Houston L 48 - 65 2% -9  1 - 1 +8 -8 C D+ F +14 A- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 291 Norfolk St. W 51 - 41 84% -1  2 - 1 -0 -16 F F A- +17 A+ D- F
 Tue, Nov 18 231 @James Madison L 75 - 81 54% -3  2 - 2 -7 +10 D+ B C+ -18 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 122 Rhode Island W 62 - 55 41% +2  3 - 2 +10 +1 C- F B- +9 A+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 94 Liberty W 72 - 69 30% -1  4 - 2 +9 +7 C A+ B- +2 A B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 109 UC San Diego L 73 - 87 36% -13  4 - 3 -10 +8 D C B+ -20 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 3 187 Cornell W 93 - 80 68% +3  5 - 3 +8 +13 B+ A+ D+ -5 D+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 53 @Central Florida L 61 - 86 11% -17  5 - 4 -11 -1 C- A- F -13 D+ F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 19 @Kansas L 49 - 73 4% -14  5 - 5 -4 -8 F B- D- +2 A+ F C+
 Mon, Dec 22 270 Sacred Heart W 72 - 47 81% +9  6 - 5 +16 -2 B- F D- +20 A+ B A+
 Mon, Dec 29 138 @William & Mary L 70 - 84 34% -8  6 - 6 0 - 1 -10 +1 C F A -10 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 230 @Hampton L 62 - 63 54% -1  6 - 7 0 - 2 -2 +0 F B B -3 C C B
 Sat, Jan 3 202 Monmouth L 48 - 62 71% -7  6 - 8 0 - 3 -20 -20 F F C+ -1 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 126 Hofstra L 67 - 78 54% -7  6 - 9 0 - 4 -12 -5 D- C F -7 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 259 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 59% +6  7 - 9 1 - 4 +7 +12 A+ A+ F -6 C- A F
 Thu, Jan 15 164 College of Charleston W 61 - 52 63% +9  8 - 9 2 - 4 +6 -12 F B F +18 A+ B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 203 Drexel W 59 - 58 71% -7  9 - 9 3 - 4 -5 -8 F B- C- +3 D A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 184 @Elon W 72 - 59 45% +5  10 - 9 4 - 4 +14 +9 F A+ A+ +7 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 304 @N.C. A&T W 72 - 67 69%
 Thu, Jan 29 125 UNC Wilmington W 65 - 64 54%
 Sat, Jan 31 230 Hampton W 67 - 60 75%
 Sat, Feb 7 126 @Hofstra L 64 - 69 32%
 Thu, Feb 12 242 Stony Brook W 69 - 61 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 202 @Monmouth L 63 - 64 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 203 @Drexel L 61 - 62 49%
 Thu, Feb 26 184 Elon W 73 - 68 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 190 Campbell W 73 - 68 68%
 Tue, Mar 3 242 @Stony Brook W 66 - 64 56%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 +0 -3 F C C +3 B B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.9 2.6 0.8 5.4 1st
2nd 0.1 3.4 6.2 2.1 0.1 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 8.4 3.9 0.2 14.5 3rd
4th 0.5 7.2 6.5 0.5 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 2.8 9.3 1.4 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.4 7.0 3.8 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 6.8 0.6 9.6 7th
8th 0.3 4.4 2.0 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 3.5 0.3 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.0 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.6 11.5 19.4 23.1 19.9 12.4 5.0 0.9 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 85.3% 0.8    0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 52.9% 2.6    0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 15.1% 1.9    0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 1.5 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.9% 28.2% 28.2% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-5 5.0% 22.8% 22.8% 13.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 3.9
12-6 12.4% 18.5% 18.5% 13.3 0.2 1.3 0.8 0.1 10.1
11-7 19.9% 13.4% 13.4% 13.7 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.2 17.2
10-8 23.1% 8.0% 8.0% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 21.2
9-9 19.4% 5.1% 5.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 18.4
8-10 11.5% 4.0% 4.0% 15.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 11.1
7-11 5.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.5 0.1 0.1 5.5
6-12 1.8% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 1.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 13.7 90.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.2 8.0 68.0 22.0 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%