Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#83
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#53
Pace70.7#132
Improvement-2.2#314

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#109
First Shot-3.0#264
After Offensive Rebound+5.4#3
Layup/Dunks-1.3#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#268
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#245
Freethrows+2.2#69
Improvement+0.1#170

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#73
First Shot+2.8#91
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#65
Layups/Dunks+0.8#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#235
Freethrows+2.3#48
Improvement-2.3#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 15.0% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.6% 14.7% 6.0%
Average Seed 9.3 9.3 9.6
.500 or above 52.1% 55.6% 29.5%
.500 or above in Conference 15.7% 16.7% 9.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.2% 18.2% 25.5%
First Four3.9% 4.2% 2.1%
First Round11.5% 12.5% 5.0%
Second Round4.8% 5.2% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 86.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 23 - 46 - 15
Quad 34 - 111 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 25   Texas A&M W 64-61 35%     1 - 0 +13.8 +0.8 +13.2
  Nov 08, 2024 146   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-68 81%     2 - 0 +4.5 -4.3 +8.7
  Nov 12, 2024 85   Florida Atlantic W 100-94 62%     3 - 0 +9.5 +13.8 -5.0
  Nov 19, 2024 327   Tennessee Tech W 80-69 95%     4 - 0 -1.5 +2.7 -3.8
  Nov 22, 2024 36   Wisconsin L 70-86 30%     4 - 1 -3.8 -6.2 +4.0
  Nov 24, 2024 56   LSU L 102-109 3OT 39%     4 - 2 +2.6 +5.7 -1.2
  Nov 27, 2024 138   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-76 79%     5 - 2 +6.3 +6.1 +0.0
  Dec 01, 2024 175   California Baptist W 74-59 84%     6 - 2 +11.1 -2.4 +13.6
  Dec 08, 2024 279   Tarleton St. W 66-51 93%     7 - 2 +5.4 -3.7 +10.2
  Dec 14, 2024 251   Tulsa W 88-75 86%     8 - 2 +8.1 +15.0 -6.6
  Dec 21, 2024 204   Jacksonville W 76-64 87%    
  Dec 31, 2024 24   @ Texas Tech L 67-77 17%    
  Jan 05, 2025 10   Kansas L 70-77 24%    
  Jan 08, 2025 75   Colorado W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 16   @ Arizona L 71-82 15%    
  Jan 14, 2025 63   @ Arizona St. L 71-76 32%    
  Jan 18, 2025 6   Houston L 62-71 20%    
  Jan 21, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 67-83 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 88   TCU W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 28, 2025 10   @ Kansas L 67-80 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 40   BYU L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 05, 2025 26   Cincinnati L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 13   @ Baylor L 68-80 13%    
  Feb 11, 2025 5   Iowa St. L 70-80 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 75   @ Colorado L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 96   @ Oklahoma St. L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 23, 2025 67   Utah W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 68   Kansas St. W 73-72 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 88   @ TCU L 68-71 41%    
  Mar 05, 2025 96   Oklahoma St. W 77-73 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 66-74 24%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.6 0.6 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.7 1.4 0.1 7.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.5 0.8 0.0 9.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 10.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.7 3.1 0.3 11.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.4 4.1 0.6 0.0 12.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.6 4.0 1.0 0.1 11.9 15th
16th 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.8 2.9 0.9 0.1 11.4 16th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.9 5.9 9.5 13.0 14.7 14.4 12.8 9.9 7.0 4.4 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 85.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 67.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 13.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.2% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.5% 99.6% 2.9% 96.6% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 1.2% 96.5% 3.5% 93.0% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.4%
12-8 2.4% 89.6% 1.4% 88.1% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 89.4%
11-9 4.4% 74.0% 1.1% 72.9% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.1 73.7%
10-10 7.0% 52.8% 0.4% 52.4% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.0 3.3 52.6%
9-11 9.9% 21.7% 0.3% 21.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.2 7.8 21.4%
8-12 12.8% 4.5% 0.2% 4.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 12.2 4.4%
7-13 14.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.4 0.6%
6-14 14.7% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 14.7
5-15 13.0% 13.0
4-16 9.5% 9.5
3-17 5.9% 5.9
2-18 2.9% 2.9
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 13.8% 0.3% 13.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.6 3.1 3.6 0.4 0.0 86.2 13.6%