Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.5 #53
Expected Predictive Rating +16.0 #26
Pace 73.2 #68
Improvement -0.4 #206

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #51 B A+ B- D+ C
Defense #73 B- B+ C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #83 1.26 #85 +4.2 #50
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #156 0.79 #123 +0.8 #137
Three Pointers 36% #283 1.11 #63 -0.7 #203
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #64 +4.2 #64
Freethrows 15.2 #290 75% #126 11.3 #267
Second Chance 37.9% #21 1.22 #23 0.46 #11
Turnovers 15.2% #104
Total Offense +6.5 #51

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #251 1.07 #76 +2.9 #81
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #201 0.78 #213 +0.1 #179
Three Pointers 44% #89 0.95 #97 -0.2 #186
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #89 +2.8 #89
Freethrows 17.3 #186 75% #268 12.9 #207
Second Chance 25.5% #26 1.02 #153 0.26 #45
Turnovers 17.4% #118
Total Defense +4.0 #73

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #175 -0.1% #155
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.9% #64 -5.5% #81
Possession Length 15.3 #29 18.9 #351
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #51 0.14 #77
Improvement -3.0 #332 +2.6 #43

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 3.8% 6.0% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.0% 71.9% 50.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.9% 71.8% 50.2%
Average Seed 9.0 8.8 9.4
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 52.0% 67.1% 37.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 1.1%
First Four12.4% 10.9% 13.8%
First Round54.1% 65.7% 42.6%
Second Round21.6% 27.6% 15.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 5.2% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 49.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 26 - 310 - 11
Quad 35 - 016 - 11
Quad 45 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 126 Hofstra W 82 - 78 85% +1  1 - 0 +3 +4 C+ A+ F -1 C A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 21 Vanderbilt L 93 - 105 36% -12  1 - 1 +2 +20 A+ A+ B+ -17 D- F F
 Tue, Nov 11 313 Florida A&M W 97 - 60 97% +22  2 - 1 +25 +14 A+ A+ F +9 C+ A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 14 34 @Texas A&M W 86 - 74 27% -2  3 - 1 +29 +16 A+ C- C +13 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 17 139 Oakland W 87 - 83 87% +5  4 - 1 +2 +6 C+ A+ C -4 C A+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 91 Pittsburgh W 77 - 67 67% +5  5 - 1 +16 +15 C A+ C- +2 A+ C+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 175 Quinnipiac W 102 - 91 91% +2  6 - 1 +7 +18 B+ A- A+ -12 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 349 VMI W 82 - 57 98% +9  7 - 1 +10 +3 F D- A+ +7 A B B+
 Sun, Dec 7 157 Towson W 86 - 61 89% +17  8 - 1 +22 +22 A+ A+ B +2 C- C- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 149 Mercer W 81 - 63 88% +10  9 - 1 +16 +3 D B+ C+ +13 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 225 Florida Gulf Coast W 102 - 80 94% +5  10 - 1 +15 +21 A+ A+ B -6 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 23 95 Florida Atlantic W 85 - 80 69% -1  11 - 1 +11 +9 B A+ B +2 A- D D+
 Sat, Jan 3 19 Kansas W 81 - 75 36% +2  12 - 1 1 - 0 +20 +17 A A+ A+ +4 A+ B- A
 Tue, Jan 6 61 @Oklahoma St. L 76 - 87 44% -6  12 - 2 1 - 1 +1 -3 F A+ A +5 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 49 Cincinnati W 73 - 72 60% +1  13 - 2 2 - 1 +9 +12 A+ A+ C -3 A F F
 Wed, Jan 14 85 @Kansas St. W 82 - 73 52% +7  14 - 2 3 - 1 +19 +9 A+ C- A+ +10 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 2 Arizona L 77 - 84 18% -6  14 - 3 3 - 2 +13 +10 C A+ B- +4 C A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 20 8 @Iowa St. L 57 - 87 12% -15  14 - 4 3 - 3 -7 +0 F A+ F -9 B F F
 Sat, Jan 24 78 @Colorado L 80 - 81 50%
 Tue, Jan 27 88 Arizona St. W 86 - 79 74%
 Sat, Jan 31 15 Texas Tech L 76 - 81 33%
 Wed, Feb 4 4 @Houston L 65 - 79 9%
 Sun, Feb 8 49 @Cincinnati L 72 - 75 38%
 Sat, Feb 14 52 West Virginia W 74 - 71 61%
 Tue, Feb 17 45 TCU W 76 - 74 58%
 Sat, Feb 21 104 @Utah W 83 - 80 61%
 Tue, Feb 24 12 @BYU L 75 - 86 15%
 Sat, Feb 28 41 Baylor W 81 - 80 55%
 Tue, Mar 3 61 Oklahoma St. W 88 - 83 67%
 Fri, Mar 6 52 @West Virginia L 71 - 74 39%
Totals 20 - 10 9 - 9 +11 +6 B A+ B- +4 B- B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.4 3.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.3 1.7 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 6.1 4.0 0.4 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 7.3 6.9 1.0 0.0 16.6 7th
8th 0.6 6.9 8.8 1.9 0.1 18.3 8th
9th 0.1 3.8 8.3 2.5 0.1 14.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 6.8 3.1 0.1 11.1 10th
11th 0.1 3.2 3.3 0.4 7.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 4.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.6 1.0 0.0 2.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.3 14th
15th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 16th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.5 8.3 15.1 20.0 20.4 16.4 9.4 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0%
14-4 13.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 2.2% 97.8% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.2% 100.0% 1.2% 98.8% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.4% 99.7% 2.1% 97.6% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 9.4% 97.3% 1.1% 96.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.2 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.3 97.3%
10-8 16.4% 91.6% 0.5% 91.0% 8.7 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.1 5.5 3.0 0.5 1.4 91.5%
9-9 20.4% 81.5% 0.3% 81.2% 9.5 0.1 0.3 2.3 5.1 6.6 2.3 3.8 81.4%
8-10 20.0% 53.2% 0.0% 53.2% 10.3 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.9 5.3 0.0 9.3 53.2%
7-11 15.1% 22.9% 22.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 0.1 11.7 22.9%
6-12 8.3% 4.1% 4.1% 11.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 8.0 4.1%
5-13 3.5% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 3.4 0.4%
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 61.0% 0.4% 60.7% 9.0 39.0 60.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%