Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#62
Expected Predictive Rating+12.3#45
Pace75.8#33
Improvement+2.1#90

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#54
First Shot+1.0#143
After Offensive Rebound+4.6#7
Layup/Dunks-1.1#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#193
Freethrows+3.4#25
Improvement+3.6#24

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#85
First Shot+2.0#110
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#75
Layups/Dunks-0.6#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#154
Freethrows+1.1#104
Improvement-1.5#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.3% 23.6% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.1% 23.4% 10.7%
Average Seed 10.3 10.3 10.4
.500 or above 92.4% 97.3% 85.7%
.500 or above in Conference 35.3% 47.5% 18.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four9.9% 12.3% 6.6%
First Round12.9% 17.1% 7.0%
Second Round4.3% 5.9% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Home) - 58.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 23 - 47 - 13
Quad 37 - 114 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 19   Texas A&M W 64-61 33%     1 - 0 +16.5 +1.7 +14.9
  Nov 08, 2024 149   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-68 84%     2 - 0 +5.4 -3.4 +8.6
  Nov 12, 2024 106   Florida Atlantic W 100-94 76%     3 - 0 +7.7 +13.0 -6.0
  Nov 19, 2024 298   Tennessee Tech W 80-69 95%     4 - 0 +0.9 +4.4 -3.2
  Nov 22, 2024 17   Wisconsin L 70-86 23%     4 - 1 +0.6 -4.0 +6.1
  Nov 24, 2024 71   LSU L 102-109 3OT 55%     4 - 2 +0.8 +5.5 -2.7
  Nov 27, 2024 133   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-76 82%     5 - 2 +7.1 +8.0 -1.1
  Dec 01, 2024 161   California Baptist W 74-59 85%     6 - 2 +12.8 -0.4 +13.2
  Dec 08, 2024 247   Tarleton St. W 66-51 93%     7 - 2 +7.4 -1.4 +9.9
  Dec 14, 2024 238   Tulsa W 88-75 89%     8 - 2 +8.5 +16.0 -7.2
  Dec 21, 2024 179   Jacksonville W 86-66 87%     9 - 2 +16.6 +11.3 +4.7
  Dec 31, 2024 12   @ Texas Tech W 87-83 15%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +24.1 +19.6 +4.4
  Jan 05, 2025 7   Kansas L 48-99 23%     10 - 3 1 - 1 -34.5 -19.5 -10.2
  Jan 08, 2025 98   Colorado W 75-74 74%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +3.4 +1.4 +1.9
  Jan 11, 2025 10   @ Arizona L 80-88 15%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +12.3 +10.3 +2.6
  Jan 14, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. W 95-89 40%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +17.5 +24.5 -7.4
  Jan 18, 2025 3   Houston L 68-69 15%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +19.2 +10.5 +8.6
  Jan 21, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 83-108 14%     12 - 6 3 - 4 -4.5 +11.1 -12.5
  Jan 25, 2025 68   TCU W 85-58 63%     13 - 6 4 - 4 +32.4 +19.7 +13.4
  Jan 28, 2025 7   @ Kansas L 87-91 12%     13 - 7 4 - 5 +17.5 +19.6 -1.8
  Feb 01, 2025 33   BYU L 75-81 41%     13 - 8 4 - 6 +5.2 -1.2 +6.9
  Feb 05, 2025 59   Cincinnati W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 20   @ Baylor L 73-82 18%    
  Feb 11, 2025 8   Iowa St. L 74-81 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 98   @ Colorado W 77-75 54%    
  Feb 19, 2025 102   @ Oklahoma St. W 80-78 54%    
  Feb 23, 2025 84   Utah W 81-77 67%    
  Feb 26, 2025 55   Kansas St. W 77-76 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 68   @ TCU L 73-74 43%    
  Mar 05, 2025 102   Oklahoma St. W 82-75 75%    
  Mar 08, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 69-74 29%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.9 0.1 4.9 6th
7th 0.4 4.0 5.3 1.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.3 4.8 9.6 2.8 0.1 17.6 8th
9th 0.1 3.8 11.4 4.3 0.3 19.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 9.1 5.8 0.5 0.0 16.5 10th
11th 0.2 4.7 6.0 0.8 0.0 11.7 11th
12th 0.0 1.5 5.3 1.2 0.0 8.0 12th
13th 0.3 2.7 1.5 0.1 4.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.4 2.5 14th
15th 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.2 1.7 6.1 13.1 20.4 23.3 18.8 11.1 4.2 1.2 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 87.1% 87.1% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 87.1%
12-8 4.2% 69.2% 0.7% 68.5% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.6 1.3 69.0%
11-9 11.1% 49.7% 0.3% 49.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.5 0.1 5.6 49.6%
10-10 18.8% 31.1% 0.3% 30.8% 10.6 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.7 0.2 12.9 30.9%
9-11 23.3% 11.3% 0.3% 11.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.3 20.6 11.0%
8-12 20.4% 1.5% 0.0% 1.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 20.1 1.4%
7-13 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 13.1 0.1%
6-14 6.1% 6.1
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.3% 0.2% 18.1% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 5.4 9.1 0.6 81.7 18.1%