Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Arizona 100.0%   1   19 - 0 6 - 0 +23.3      +11.7 5 +11.6 4 76.0 32 +31.6 1 +25.1 2
4 Houston 100.0%   1   17 - 1 5 - 0 +21.7      +10.0 16 +11.7 3 61.1 352 +24.9 7 +27.8 1
8 Iowa St. 100.0%   2   17 - 2 4 - 2 +20.4      +9.8 18 +10.7 7 70.5 137 +22.9 9 +16.0 6
12 BYU 99.9%   4   16 - 2 4 - 1 +18.7      +10.5 13 +8.3 19 72.8 79 +21.5 11 +19.0 5
15 Texas Tech 99.8%   4   15 - 4 5 - 1 +18.0      +10.5 12 +7.5 23 68.6 193 +20.2 14 +23.7 3
19 Kansas 99.0%   5   14 - 5 4 - 2 +17.3      +7.9 37 +9.4 11 69.0 175 +17.1 21 +15.9 7
41 Baylor 35.6%   10 - 7 1 - 5 +12.2      +9.0 24 +3.1 91 69.3 168 +11.1 52 +7.5 12
45 TCU 40.5%   11   12 - 7 2 - 4 +11.2      +3.5 92 +7.6 22 68.2 207 +9.9 60 +9.1 10
49 Cincinnati 12.7%   10 - 9 2 - 4 +10.9      +0.6 146 +10.3 8 71.2 112 +6.3 85 +11.0 9
52 West Virginia 36.3%   13 - 6 4 - 2 +10.6      +4.5 75 +6.1 43 61.1 353 +10.6 56 +19.2 4
53 Central Florida 61.7%   10   14 - 4 3 - 3 +10.5      +6.5 51 +4.0 73 73.2 68 +16.0 26 +14.5 8
61 Oklahoma St. 22.3%   14 - 5 2 - 4 +9.0      +6.1 55 +2.9 95 79.9 9 +12.2 46 +8.0 11
78 Colorado 3.4%   12 - 7 2 - 4 +7.6      +5.5 63 +2.1 108 71.1 119 +7.7 78 +7.4 13
85 Kansas St. 1.6%   10 - 9 1 - 5 +7.1      +4.3 78 +2.8 97 78.4 16 +6.3 87 +0.8 16
88 Arizona St. 2.2%   10 - 9 1 - 5 +6.5      +5.4 64 +1.1 129 73.2 71 +8.3 74 +1.4 15
104 Utah 0.1%   9 - 10 1 - 5 +4.5      +4.8 71 -0.3 178 70.9 125 +3.7 109 +4.5 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Jan 20 78 Colorado 69 19 Kansas 75   
Tue, Jan 20 61 Oklahoma St. 65 45 TCU 68   
Tue, Jan 20 85 Kansas St. 81 104 Utah 78   
Tue, Jan 20 8 Iowa St. 87 53 Central Florida 57   
Tue, Jan 20 41 Baylor 73 15 Texas Tech 92   
Wed, Jan 21 2 Arizona 77 49 Cincinnati 51   
Wed, Jan 21 88 Arizona St. 63 52 West Virginia 75   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 4 Houston 71 15 Texas Tech 70 53%   
Sat, Jan 24 41 Baylor 77 45 TCU 73 65%   
Sat, Jan 24 78 Colorado 82 53 Central Florida 81 50%   
Sat, Jan 24 88 Arizona St. 74 49 Cincinnati 76 55%   
Sat, Jan 24 2 Arizona 80 52 West Virginia 64 92%   
Sat, Jan 24 8 Iowa St. 86 61 Oklahoma St. 78 79%   
Sat, Jan 24 19 Kansas 83 85 Kansas St. 75 76%   
Sat, Jan 24 12 BYU 90 104 Utah 72 94%   
Mon, Jan 26 2 Arizona 82 12 BYU 80 56%   
Tue, Jan 27 85 Kansas St. 71 52 West Virginia 77 73%   
Tue, Jan 27 88 Arizona St. 79 53 Central Florida 86 75%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Arizona 1.7 57.8 24.0 10.0 4.9 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Houston 2.0 43.4 30.8 13.3 7.2 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
Iowa St. 3.6 8.8 17.7 24.6 21.3 15.0 7.5 3.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
BYU 4.1 9.0 13.6 19.3 18.8 17.5 10.9 6.3 2.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas Tech 3.8 8.5 16.4 22.6 20.6 15.9 9.1 4.4 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kansas 5.2 2.1 5.5 10.9 15.6 20.2 21.9 13.6 5.9 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Baylor 10.4 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.1 6.9 11.0 14.3 15.0 15.0 13.0 9.1 6.1 3.7 1.5
TCU 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.2 6.8 12.4 16.4 16.4 13.8 10.5 7.8 5.5 3.5 1.6 0.6
Cincinnati 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.9 10.4 15.3 16.7 15.5 11.8 8.9 6.1 3.4 1.7 0.7
West Virginia 7.1 0.2 1.1 3.3 6.5 11.7 17.6 20.2 15.4 10.5 6.4 3.7 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 8.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.1 6.7 11.9 16.8 18.6 14.4 10.4 7.1 4.5 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1
Oklahoma St. 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.4 7.3 10.6 13.0 14.1 14.4 13.1 10.5 6.3 2.9
Colorado 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.7 9.4 12.9 15.5 15.8 15.0 11.2 7.4 3.4
Kansas St. 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.9 2.8 4.9 7.1 9.6 13.2 18.5 22.9 18.1
Arizona St. 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.6 8.5 12.0 14.5 18.0 17.1 15.7
Utah 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.7 8.9 12.6 17.9 21.6 27.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arizona 15 - 3 28 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.1 10.0 17.6 24.1 23.4 14.8 4.4
Houston 15 - 3 27 - 4 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 6.7 13.8 21.2 24.0 19.2 9.6 2.1
Iowa St. 13 - 5 26 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.1 13.4 21.1 24.9 19.7 9.8 2.1
BYU 12 - 6 24 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.7 10.1 16.5 20.1 20.0 15.1 8.0 2.6 0.5
Texas Tech 13 - 5 23 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 7.2 15.0 21.4 22.7 17.6 9.2 2.9 0.4
Kansas 11 - 7 21 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.8 11.4 18.6 22.1 20.8 12.8 5.8 1.5 0.2
Baylor 7 - 11 16 - 14 0.1 0.5 2.1 6.7 13.0 20.8 21.7 17.8 10.8 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.0
TCU 8 - 10 18 - 13 0.1 0.7 3.0 7.6 13.8 19.5 20.4 17.4 10.8 4.8 1.6 0.3 0.0
Cincinnati 8 - 10 16 - 15 0.1 0.7 3.3 8.5 15.6 21.2 20.9 16.3 8.8 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
West Virginia 10 - 8 19 - 12 0.2 1.0 3.8 8.7 15.9 19.7 20.5 15.5 9.3 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0
Central Florida 9 - 9 20 - 10 0.1 1.0 3.4 8.6 14.7 19.7 21.2 16.4 9.2 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
Oklahoma St. 6 - 12 18 - 13 1.0 4.5 11.6 18.2 21.3 19.2 13.3 7.2 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
Colorado 6 - 12 16 - 15 0.7 4.6 12.6 21.0 24.0 19.8 11.0 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.1
Kansas St. 4 - 14 13 - 18 2.7 10.0 18.6 23.2 20.7 13.6 7.2 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 5 - 13 14 - 17 1.6 6.7 15.8 22.0 22.0 16.3 9.8 4.1 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Utah 4 - 14 12 - 19 3.5 12.4 22.2 24.9 19.3 11.0 4.7 1.5 0.5 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 57.8% 39.4 14.5 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Houston 43.4% 26.1 13.6 3.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 8.8% 3.0 3.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
BYU 9.0% 3.4 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas Tech 8.5% 3.1 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Kansas 2.1% 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
Baylor
TCU 0.0% 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0% 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0
Colorado
Kansas St.
Arizona St.
Utah


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 1   70.7 25.2 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Houston 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1   34.6 34.0 18.3 9.2 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Iowa St. 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 2   15.1 25.5 26.6 19.2 9.0 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
BYU 99.9% 10.1% 89.8% 4   6.5 15.5 24.3 23.5 16.8 8.4 3.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.8%
Texas Tech 99.8% 9.0% 90.8% 4   3.2 8.6 19.8 25.0 21.3 13.3 5.7 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.7%
Kansas 99.0% 5.8% 93.2% 5   1.0 3.0 9.6 17.0 22.7 21.1 13.4 5.7 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.0 1.0 99.0%
Baylor 35.6% 0.4% 35.1% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.0 5.9 6.2 6.9 9.6 0.4 0.0 64.4 35.3%
TCU 40.5% 0.4% 40.1% 11   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 6.8 10.0 10.7 8.9 0.3 59.5 40.3%
Cincinnati 12.7% 0.3% 12.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.0 3.5 5.2 0.2 87.3 12.4%
West Virginia 36.3% 0.3% 36.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.5 5.5 8.6 10.2 8.5 0.1 63.7 36.1%
Central Florida 61.7% 0.3% 61.4% 10   0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.9 11.2 15.0 14.8 11.3 0.2 38.3 61.6%
Oklahoma St. 22.3% 0.1% 22.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.9 6.3 8.6 0.2 77.7 22.3%
Colorado 3.4% 0.1% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 0.1 96.7 3.3%
Kansas St. 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.0 98.4 1.6%
Arizona St. 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.0 97.8 2.2%
Utah 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.1%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.2 2.8 21.0 42.2 27.1 6.4 0.5
1st Round 100.0% 7.8 0.0 5.6 30.8 42.4 18.3 2.8 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 6.3 0.1 2.4 16.6 42.1 30.3 7.7 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.9% 3.8 0.1 1.6 9.8 26.9 36.1 20.9 4.5 0.3
Elite Eight 95.3% 2.1 4.7 24.0 39.5 25.0 6.2 0.5 0.0
Final Four 76.5% 1.1 23.5 47.6 25.0 3.8 0.1
Final Game 50.7% 0.6 49.3 44.2 6.5
Champion 29.4% 0.3 70.6 29.4

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.4% 81.4% 56.4% 36.3% 21.9% 12.9%
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.2% 73.6% 45.2% 25.6% 14.1% 7.3%
Iowa St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.7% 66.2% 36.4% 18.6% 9.4% 4.5%
BYU 99.9% 0.1% 99.8% 90.7% 55.4% 26.5% 12.1% 5.3% 2.3%
Texas Tech 99.8% 0.2% 99.7% 87.5% 48.8% 21.0% 9.2% 3.6% 1.5%
Kansas 99.0% 1.3% 98.5% 78.7% 38.6% 15.7% 6.4% 2.5% 0.9%
Baylor 35.6% 10.5% 30.9% 15.3% 4.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
TCU 40.5% 9.9% 35.5% 14.7% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Cincinnati 12.7% 5.6% 10.3% 4.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
West Virginia 36.3% 9.3% 31.2% 12.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 61.7% 12.5% 54.5% 21.4% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 22.3% 9.5% 17.1% 5.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 3.4% 1.9% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas St. 1.6% 0.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 2.2% 1.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%