Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Houston 100.0%   1   17 - 4 9 - 1 25 - 6 17 - 3 +22.7      +10.6 11 +12.0 3 57.9 360 +18.5 8 +24.6 1
7 Kansas 99.9%   2   16 - 6 7 - 4 22 - 9 13 - 7 +19.0      +8.0 24 +11.0 5 71.5 93 +17.5 13 +16.0 5
8 Iowa St. 99.7%   4   17 - 5 7 - 4 23 - 8 13 - 7 +18.0      +8.1 23 +10.0 6 70.3 126 +18.1 11 +16.9 4
10 Arizona 99.4%   3   15 - 6 9 - 1 21 - 10 15 - 5 +17.8      +9.7 13 +8.1 17 74.5 42 +15.4 24 +24.2 2
12 Texas Tech 99.9%   3   17 - 4 8 - 2 24 - 7 15 - 5 +17.6      +10.5 12 +7.1 31 65.1 265 +16.9 18 +21.2 3
20 Baylor 95.4%   6   13 - 7 6 - 4 19 - 11 12 - 8 +15.8      +10.7 10 +5.1 54 64.4 288 +15.0 32 +14.6 6
33 BYU 77.0%   9   15 - 6 6 - 4 20 - 11 11 - 9 +13.7      +9.0 15 +4.7 60 68.3 180 +11.9 47 +13.0 8
39 West Virginia 83.3%   9   14 - 7 5 - 5 19 - 12 10 - 10 +11.9      +3.5 79 +8.4 11 63.2 311 +14.9 33 +13.8 7
55 Kansas St. 6.0%   10 - 11 4 - 6 14 - 17 8 - 12 +9.9      +4.8 62 +5.2 53 68.3 178 +5.7 88 +10.3 11
59 Cincinnati 8.6%   12 - 9 2 - 8 16 - 15 6 - 14 +9.7      +1.3 139 +8.4 12 64.4 289 +8.7 62 +4.6 15
61 Arizona St. 18.2%   12 - 9 3 - 7 16 - 15 7 - 13 +9.0      +2.6 106 +6.4 38 70.5 117 +11.8 48 +7.2 13
62 Central Florida 18.3%   13 - 8 4 - 6 18 - 13 9 - 11 +8.9      +5.6 54 +3.4 85 75.8 33 +12.3 45 +12.5 9
68 TCU 5.0%   11 - 10 4 - 6 15 - 16 8 - 12 +7.9      +1.3 140 +6.6 36 66.1 237 +8.5 67 +10.8 10
84 Utah 3.2%   12 - 9 4 - 6 16 - 15 8 - 12 +7.1      +3.3 86 +3.8 75 72.6 74 +7.8 72 +10.0 12
98 Colorado 0.0%   9 - 12 0 - 10 11 - 20 2 - 18 +4.9      +1.5 132 +3.4 86 68.9 163 +3.6 116 -5.4 16
102 Oklahoma St. 0.1%   11 - 10 3 - 7 13 - 18 5 - 15 +4.6      +1.1 148 +3.5 79 73.0 64 +6.4 82 +6.7 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Houston 1.4 75.5 16.8 4.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
Kansas 4.0 3.4 14.8 22.4 24.6 19.0 9.9 4.3 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 3.9 3.7 14.4 23.8 26.0 17.8 8.9 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arizona 2.6 24.6 34.6 18.8 10.3 6.9 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.1
Texas Tech 2.8 17.7 31.7 24.9 12.3 7.5 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Baylor 5.7 0.9 3.7 8.0 12.0 18.4 25.0 18.4 8.5 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
BYU 6.6 0.2 2.0 4.7 8.3 12.0 18.9 22.5 16.4 8.2 4.4 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1
West Virginia 7.6 0.3 1.5 3.6 7.8 15.5 20.1 22.7 13.3 7.8 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
Kansas St. 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 6.4 13.6 18.4 18.2 14.0 11.1 7.3 5.1 1.4 0.1
Cincinnati 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 5.3 9.3 12.6 15.5 18.8 18.9 15.2 0.6
Arizona St. 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.7 8.2 11.9 14.4 16.4 17.9 15.8 9.3 0.3
Central Florida 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.9 10.6 17.6 19.9 16.5 11.7 8.0 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.0
TCU 10.6 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.2 4.7 9.3 14.6 16.8 17.2 15.4 10.6 5.8 2.4 0.1
Utah 11.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.5 7.9 12.0 15.3 17.1 17.6 13.6 8.6 2.9 0.2
Colorado 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 8.3 88.8
Oklahoma St. 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.8 6.2 10.1 16.0 23.5 36.5 1.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Houston 17 - 3 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.2 12.0 23.2 27.8 22.7 8.8
Kansas 13 - 7 0.1 0.3 1.6 6.0 14.9 26.9 29.0 17.2 4.0
Iowa St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.5 13.7 25.8 30.6 18.3 4.2
Arizona 15 - 5 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.6 11.6 20.1 24.1 20.3 12.1 4.8 0.9
Texas Tech 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 5.6 13.7 22.8 25.6 19.6 8.8 1.6
Baylor 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.6 11.8 19.9 25.9 21.0 11.5 3.6 0.4
BYU 11 - 9 0.1 1.0 4.4 11.2 18.6 22.2 20.8 14.0 6.1 1.4 0.3
West Virginia 10 - 10 0.0 0.7 3.1 8.9 16.9 23.4 22.0 15.8 7.2 1.8 0.3
Kansas St. 8 - 12 0.5 3.6 9.8 17.9 23.0 20.5 14.8 6.7 2.6 0.7 0.0
Cincinnati 6 - 14 0.4 2.6 9.5 18.0 24.2 22.0 15.1 5.9 2.1 0.2 0.0
Arizona St. 7 - 13 1.1 6.2 14.5 22.2 23.7 17.6 10.1 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 9 - 11 0.2 1.7 6.1 13.1 20.4 23.3 18.8 11.1 4.2 1.2 0.1
TCU 8 - 12 0.9 5.4 14.0 22.6 23.2 18.2 9.9 4.4 1.1 0.3
Utah 8 - 12 1.6 7.6 17.7 24.0 22.5 15.9 7.6 2.5 0.6 0.1
Colorado 2 - 18 9.2 23.6 30.6 22.0 10.1 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma St. 5 - 15 7.5 20.9 27.9 23.6 12.7 5.8 1.4 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 75.5% 57.9 13.8 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Kansas 3.4% 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 3.7% 0.6 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Arizona 24.6% 12.5 9.0 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Texas Tech 17.7% 7.6 7.1 2.4 0.6 0.0 0.0
Baylor 0.9% 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
BYU 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Virginia
Kansas St.
Cincinnati
Arizona St.
Central Florida
TCU
Utah
Colorado
Oklahoma St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 1   60.7 31.0 5.9 1.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Kansas 99.9% 13.6% 86.3% 2   9.6 23.3 24.3 20.3 11.7 5.8 3.1 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Iowa St. 99.7% 11.2% 88.5% 4   2.7 9.3 17.2 20.3 18.6 13.4 10.5 5.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.3 99.7%
Arizona 99.4% 13.6% 85.8% 3   10.3 19.8 22.9 19.5 12.8 7.1 3.4 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.6 99.3%
Texas Tech 99.9% 11.9% 88.0% 3   9.3 20.6 23.5 20.3 13.6 7.5 3.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 99.9%
Baylor 95.4% 5.4% 90.0% 6   0.8 2.7 6.2 10.1 14.0 16.2 15.5 12.3 7.9 5.5 4.0 0.2 4.6 95.1%
BYU 77.0% 2.5% 74.5% 9   0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.8 7.1 10.8 14.0 14.9 14.7 8.3 0.4 23.0 76.4%
West Virginia 83.3% 1.1% 82.2% 9   0.0 0.5 1.0 2.8 5.6 11.8 17.8 18.6 14.5 10.2 0.5 16.7 83.1%
Kansas St. 6.0% 0.2% 5.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 94.0 5.8%
Cincinnati 8.6% 0.2% 8.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 5.0 0.4 91.4 8.4%
Arizona St. 18.2% 0.1% 18.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.5 4.0 8.7 0.8 81.8 18.1%
Central Florida 18.3% 0.2% 18.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 5.4 9.1 0.6 81.7 18.1%
TCU 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.5 0.3 95.0 5.0%
Utah 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 0.2 96.8 3.2%
Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.1% 80.1% 58.3% 39.6% 25.0% 15.0%
Kansas 99.9% 0.1% 99.9% 92.0% 61.2% 33.7% 17.5% 8.6% 4.2%
Iowa St. 99.7% 0.1% 99.7% 84.6% 49.9% 24.6% 11.9% 5.5% 2.3%
Arizona 99.4% 0.4% 99.3% 89.3% 54.9% 28.0% 13.4% 6.2% 2.7%
Texas Tech 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 89.6% 55.5% 26.9% 12.4% 5.7% 2.6%
Baylor 95.4% 4.2% 93.8% 66.8% 30.8% 13.9% 5.8% 2.4% 0.9%
BYU 77.0% 8.7% 73.2% 40.1% 12.9% 5.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
West Virginia 83.3% 10.9% 77.5% 36.0% 9.3% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Kansas St. 6.0% 3.2% 4.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cincinnati 8.6% 5.5% 5.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 18.2% 9.6% 13.1% 5.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 18.3% 9.9% 12.9% 4.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TCU 5.0% 2.7% 3.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 3.2% 1.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.1 1.5 18.5 49.4 26.1 4.3 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 7.8 0.1 3.4 27.9 50.5 16.6 1.5 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.1 0.0 0.4 4.9 20.3 38.4 28.1 7.4 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.8% 3.6 0.2 2.6 14.2 30.0 33.0 16.4 3.5 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 93.9% 1.9 6.1 27.0 39.6 21.8 5.1 0.5 0.0
Final Four 74.1% 1.0 25.9 48.3 22.6 3.1 0.1
Final Game 48.7% 0.5 51.3 43.1 5.6
Champion 28.0% 0.3 72.0 28.0