Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Houston 100.0%   1   27 - 4 19 - 1 27 - 4 19 - 1 +22.8      +11.2 11 +11.6 4 56.8 360 +23.4 3 +30.0 1
7 Texas Tech 100.0%   2   24 - 7 15 - 5 24 - 7 15 - 5 +19.7      +12.1 9 +7.6 23 65.0 268 +17.6 11 +19.7 2
10 Iowa St. 100.0%   3   23 - 8 13 - 7 24 - 8 13 - 7 +18.7      +7.6 32 +11.0 6 70.6 107 +17.1 14 +16.0 5
12 Arizona 100.0%   4   20 - 11 14 - 6 20 - 11 14 - 6 +18.0      +10.5 14 +7.5 25 73.5 53 +15.8 25 +18.9 3
18 Kansas 99.8%   7   20 - 11 11 - 9 20 - 11 11 - 9 +16.8      +6.6 43 +10.2 8 70.5 114 +15.7 26 +13.9 6
20 BYU 99.8%   6   23 - 8 14 - 6 23 - 8 14 - 6 +16.5      +11.5 10 +5.0 58 68.2 181 +15.8 24 +17.5 4
27 Baylor 86.2%   10   17 - 13 10 - 10 17 - 13 10 - 10 +14.8      +9.2 17 +5.6 45 63.6 299 +13.5 40 +12.6 8
43 West Virginia 89.8%   9   19 - 12 10 - 10 20 - 12 10 - 10 +11.8      +2.3 106 +9.4 11 62.6 324 +13.8 37 +12.9 7
45 Cincinnati 8.8%   18 - 14 7 - 13 18 - 15 7 - 13 +11.5      +3.5 84 +8.0 19 64.7 277 +10.5 52 +8.6 13
59 Kansas St. 0.6%   15 - 16 9 - 11 16 - 16 9 - 11 +9.8      +2.5 104 +7.2 28 68.2 180 +8.5 70 +11.5 9
64 Utah 0.4%   16 - 15 8 - 12 17 - 15 8 - 12 +8.7      +4.6 66 +4.1 71 71.0 99 +8.7 68 +9.9 11
73 Arizona St. 0.0%   13 - 18 4 - 16 13 - 19 4 - 16 +7.5      +3.9 77 +3.6 80 70.6 112 +8.8 67 +4.5 15
77 TCU 0.0%   16 - 16 9 - 11 16 - 16 9 - 11 +7.4      +0.5 158 +6.9 30 66.6 220 +9.5 60 +11.3 10
78 Central Florida 0.1%   16 - 15 7 - 13 16 - 16 7 - 13 +7.3      +5.4 59 +1.9 115 77.3 14 +9.1 65 +8.3 14
85 Colorado 0.0%   13 - 19 3 - 17 13 - 20 3 - 17 +6.7      +1.3 138 +5.3 49 68.4 174 +6.2 84 +1.9 16
91 Oklahoma St. 0.0%   15 - 17 7 - 13 15 - 17 7 - 13 +5.6      +1.1 142 +4.5 62 76.5 19 +7.6 77 +9.0 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Houston 1.0 100.0
Texas Tech 2.0 100.0
Iowa St. 5.0 100.0
Arizona 3.0 100.0
Kansas 6.0 100.0
BYU 3.0 100.0
Baylor 7.0 100.0
West Virginia 7.0 100.0
Cincinnati 12.0 100.0
Kansas St. 9.0 100.0
Utah 11.0 100.0
Arizona St. 15.0 100.0
TCU 9.0 100.0
Central Florida 12.0 100.0
Colorado 16.0 100.0
Oklahoma St. 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Houston 19 - 1 100.0
Texas Tech 15 - 5 100.0
Iowa St. 13 - 7 100.0
Arizona 14 - 6 100.0
Kansas 11 - 9 100.0
BYU 14 - 6 100.0
Baylor 10 - 10 100.0
West Virginia 10 - 10 100.0
Cincinnati 7 - 13 100.0
Kansas St. 9 - 11 100.0
Utah 8 - 12 100.0
Arizona St. 4 - 16 100.0
TCU 9 - 11 100.0
Central Florida 7 - 13 100.0
Colorado 3 - 17 100.0
Oklahoma St. 7 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 100.0% 100.0
Texas Tech
Iowa St.
Arizona
Kansas
BYU
Baylor
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Kansas St.
Utah
Arizona St.
TCU
Central Florida
Colorado
Oklahoma St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 41.6% 58.4% 1   72.3 27.1 0.6 100.0%
Texas Tech 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 2   6.6 36.2 41.3 14.1 1.6 0.1 100.0%
Iowa St. 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 3   1.8 15.4 40.7 30.1 9.5 2.3 0.3 100.0%
Arizona 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 4   0.7 6.5 22.2 28.5 22.6 13.7 5.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
Kansas 99.8% 5.6% 94.2% 7   0.7 4.8 9.3 14.8 20.2 28.8 17.6 3.3 0.2 0.2 99.8%
BYU 99.8% 6.5% 93.3% 6   0.0 1.0 5.4 11.1 17.6 21.1 28.3 13.4 1.8 0.1 0.2 99.8%
Baylor 86.2% 2.4% 83.7% 10   0.2 0.4 1.0 1.3 2.5 7.0 16.2 33.2 23.9 0.5 13.8 85.8%
West Virginia 89.8% 1.1% 88.7% 9   0.1 0.4 1.4 14.1 37.1 31.4 5.2 10.2 89.7%
Cincinnati 8.8% 0.5% 8.3% 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.0 2.2 91.2 8.3%
Kansas St. 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 99.4 0.5%
Utah 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.6 0.4%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
TCU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Central Florida 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.3% 78.9% 57.4% 36.1% 20.7% 10.8%
Texas Tech 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.5% 66.6% 37.1% 17.3% 7.8% 3.2%
Iowa St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 93.4% 60.7% 28.0% 11.9% 5.0% 2.0%
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 87.8% 52.3% 21.8% 9.6% 3.3% 1.2%
Kansas 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 72.7% 32.9% 13.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.6%
BYU 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 72.8% 32.0% 12.5% 5.0% 1.7% 0.6%
Baylor 86.2% 19.7% 78.5% 38.9% 11.9% 4.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
West Virginia 89.8% 3.4% 88.1% 34.2% 5.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Cincinnati 8.8% 7.9% 4.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas St. 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TCU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.9 1.2 19.4 72.2 7.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.7 2.0 27.8 66.6 3.6
2nd Round 100.0% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 5.9 22.9 40.5 25.1 4.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.6% 3.4 0.4 3.7 15.7 33.1 31.3 13.4 2.3 0.2
Elite Eight 92.4% 1.8 7.6 32.6 38.4 17.9 3.2 0.3
Final Four 67.1% 0.9 32.9 48.8 16.8 1.5 0.1
Final Game 37.8% 0.4 62.2 34.8 3.0
Champion 18.4% 0.2 81.6 18.4