Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Houston 99.1%   1   1 - 0 0 - 0 26 - 4 15 - 3 +23.6      +10.9 8 +12.7 1 58.3 362 +2.7 90 0.0 1
9 Arizona 95.4%   2   1 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +18.6      +11.0 6 +7.5 17 74.0 57 +32.8 1 0.0 1
12 BYU 93.0%   3   1 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +17.9      +11.3 5 +6.6 26 68.4 193 +24.9 2 0.0 1
13 Kansas 86.7%   4   1 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 6 +17.4      +8.1 27 +9.3 6 69.5 147 +1.1 110 0.0 1
16 Texas Tech 82.4%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 11 - 7 +17.0      +10.1 13 +6.9 24 65.1 276 0.0 121 0.0 1
18 Iowa St. 77.4%   6   1 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 11 - 7 +16.2      +6.8 41 +9.5 2 70.5 124 -1.9 289 0.0 1
29 Baylor 64.7%   8   1 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +14.0      +8.6 20 +5.4 42 67.7 208 +4.9 67 0.0 1
42 Cincinnati 52.1%   10   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +12.3      +4.2 69 +8.1 14 70.8 120 +4.3 76 0.0 1
62 Kansas St. 23.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 7 - 11 +8.7      +3.7 78 +5.0 48 67.6 213 0.0 121 0.0 1
63 West Virginia 21.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 7 - 11 +8.3      +3.6 81 +4.7 51 62.2 336 0.0 121 0.0 1
66 Oklahoma St. 22.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +8.2      +4.5 64 +3.7 73 77.1 19 0.0 121 0.0 1
75 Arizona St. 18.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 +7.3      +3.6 79 +3.6 76 70.8 121 0.0 121 0.0 1
82 Utah 14.3%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 6 - 12 +6.4      +4.0 72 +2.4 104 70.9 114 +9.2 20 0.0 1
83 Central Florida 14.3%   1 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 6 - 12 +6.4      +4.4 66 +2.0 108 77.6 15 +9.5 19 0.0 1
85 TCU 5.7%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 16 6 - 12 +6.1      +1.9 109 +4.2 64 66.5 237 -21.6 364 0.0 1
95 Colorado 10.0%   1 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 6 - 12 +5.4      +2.7 96 +2.6 99 68.6 179 +7.3 42 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Houston 2.3 49.2 20.6 11.3 7.1 4.6 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 4.1 17.8 18.2 15.2 12.2 9.8 7.9 5.7 4.2 3.1 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
BYU 4.6 14.9 15.9 13.9 12.0 10.5 8.9 7.0 5.2 4.0 3.0 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1
Kansas 4.8 14.1 14.3 13.9 12.2 10.0 8.8 7.3 5.6 4.3 3.3 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.2
Texas Tech 5.2 11.2 12.2 12.8 12.4 10.9 9.8 8.0 6.4 5.2 3.7 2.6 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2
Iowa St. 5.4 9.7 11.9 12.5 11.8 10.8 9.8 8.2 7.0 5.5 4.1 3.2 2.4 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2
Baylor 7.0 4.4 6.5 8.1 9.2 10.6 10.0 9.7 8.7 8.1 6.7 5.3 4.3 3.4 2.4 1.6 0.9
Cincinnati 7.8 2.6 4.1 6.2 8.0 8.8 9.4 10.1 9.7 8.8 8.1 7.1 5.9 4.3 3.2 2.4 1.2
Kansas St. 9.9 0.7 1.9 2.8 4.0 5.2 6.0 7.0 7.6 8.4 9.1 8.9 9.0 8.7 7.8 7.0 5.9
West Virginia 10.0 0.7 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.1 5.9 7.2 7.8 8.1 8.7 8.8 9.2 8.8 8.3 7.7 5.7
Oklahoma St. 10.2 0.8 1.7 2.3 3.4 4.7 5.5 6.6 7.5 8.5 9.0 8.8 9.1 9.1 8.4 7.7 7.0
Arizona St. 10.8 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.6 4.5 6.0 7.2 8.2 9.1 9.2 9.8 9.5 9.3 9.7 8.1
Utah 11.4 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.8 2.5 3.5 4.8 5.9 7.0 8.4 9.7 10.6 11.2 11.3 11.5 10.1
Central Florida 11.4 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 2.6 3.6 4.9 6.1 7.2 8.4 9.2 10.0 10.5 11.4 11.4 10.6
TCU 11.6 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.3 3.3 4.4 5.6 6.7 7.9 9.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.1 12.1
Colorado 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.9 3.8 5.1 6.3 7.7 9.2 10.4 11.5 12.5 13.4 13.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 5.0 7.5 11.5 15.1 17.3 17.8 14.1 6.7
Arizona 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.3 5.9 8.7 11.2 13.4 14.2 13.6 11.4 7.8 3.8 1.0
BYU 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.4 7.7 10.0 12.1 13.2 13.4 12.3 9.5 6.0 3.3 0.7
Kansas 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.7 5.9 8.0 10.1 11.8 13.1 13.2 11.6 8.9 5.6 3.0 0.8
Texas Tech 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 4.6 6.6 9.3 11.4 12.5 13.5 12.7 10.4 7.3 4.3 1.8 0.4
Iowa St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 4.9 7.3 9.9 11.4 12.9 13.2 11.8 9.3 7.2 3.8 1.8 0.5
Baylor 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.0 6.1 8.2 10.7 12.3 12.8 12.0 10.9 7.9 5.4 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.2
Cincinnati 9 - 9 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.7 3.0 5.2 7.9 10.3 12.3 13.1 12.7 10.7 8.9 6.2 3.8 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
Kansas St. 7 - 11 0.4 1.5 3.3 5.8 8.2 10.7 11.6 12.6 11.7 10.0 8.3 6.4 4.4 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
West Virginia 7 - 11 0.4 1.4 3.5 5.9 8.9 10.7 12.1 12.0 11.2 10.5 8.3 6.2 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma St. 7 - 11 0.5 1.8 3.9 6.4 8.8 11.1 12.1 11.9 11.7 10.1 7.6 5.7 3.7 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1
Arizona St. 7 - 11 0.5 2.1 4.7 7.8 10.2 12.1 12.6 12.6 11.1 9.4 6.6 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Utah 6 - 12 0.8 2.8 5.9 9.4 12.2 13.8 14.0 12.1 9.8 7.6 5.1 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 6 - 12 0.9 3.1 6.3 9.4 11.8 13.3 13.0 12.2 9.9 7.5 5.5 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
TCU 6 - 12 1.1 3.7 7.0 10.1 12.0 13.7 13.2 11.7 9.5 7.3 4.4 3.1 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Colorado 6 - 12 1.1 3.7 7.7 10.8 13.7 14.0 13.7 11.4 9.0 6.1 4.1 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 49.2% 35.0 11.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
Arizona 17.8% 10.2 5.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
BYU 14.9% 8.5 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Kansas 14.1% 7.9 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas Tech 11.2% 6.3 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 9.7% 5.2 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Baylor 4.4% 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Cincinnati 2.6% 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Arizona St. 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
TCU 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Colorado 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 99.1% 37.6% 61.5% 1   41.9 24.1 12.3 8.1 4.8 3.1 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 98.6%
Arizona 95.4% 13.6% 81.8% 2   18.9 19.9 16.2 12.3 8.8 6.7 4.2 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.4 0.1 4.6 94.7%
BYU 93.0% 11.5% 81.6% 3   14.4 16.2 14.5 12.5 10.3 7.7 5.3 3.7 3.4 2.9 1.8 0.1 7.0 92.1%
Kansas 86.7% 9.8% 77.0% 4   11.0 12.5 12.9 11.7 10.0 8.3 6.3 4.8 3.6 3.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 13.3 85.3%
Texas Tech 82.4% 9.8% 72.7% 4   8.4 9.5 10.6 10.4 9.3 8.6 7.3 6.2 5.0 4.5 2.6 0.1 0.0 17.6 80.5%
Iowa St. 77.4% 7.8% 69.6% 6   4.6 6.3 8.2 8.7 9.2 8.8 8.9 8.0 6.3 5.6 2.7 0.1 0.0 22.6 75.5%
Baylor 64.7% 4.2% 60.5% 8   2.1 3.7 5.7 7.0 7.7 7.8 8.0 7.2 6.0 5.6 3.6 0.2 0.0 35.3 63.2%
Cincinnati 52.1% 2.5% 49.7% 10   0.8 1.6 2.7 3.7 5.0 5.8 6.4 7.2 7.2 7.5 4.0 0.1 47.9 50.9%
Kansas St. 23.4% 0.9% 22.5% 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.8 4.8 2.6 0.1 76.6 22.7%
West Virginia 21.8% 0.6% 21.2% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.3 3.3 3.9 4.8 2.9 0.1 78.2 21.3%
Oklahoma St. 22.5% 0.6% 21.9% 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.3 3.5 3.8 5.1 2.8 0.1 77.5 22.0%
Arizona St. 18.0% 0.5% 17.6% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.7 2.7 0.1 82.0 17.7%
Utah 14.3% 0.3% 14.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.6 3.2 2.6 0.1 85.7 14.1%
Central Florida 14.3% 0.2% 14.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.4 2.5 0.1 85.8 14.1%
TCU 5.7% 0.2% 5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.4 5.5%
Colorado 10.0% 0.1% 9.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.6 2.0 0.1 90.0 9.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 99.1% 0.4% 99.0% 94.5% 74.4% 52.0% 34.0% 21.4% 13.3%
Arizona 95.4% 2.1% 94.4% 82.8% 52.9% 28.7% 14.4% 7.0% 3.3%
BYU 93.0% 2.7% 91.8% 77.6% 47.4% 24.7% 12.3% 6.0% 2.9%
Kansas 86.7% 3.3% 85.3% 70.8% 41.2% 21.1% 10.2% 4.8% 2.2%
Texas Tech 82.4% 3.9% 80.7% 64.6% 37.1% 19.3% 9.6% 4.5% 2.1%
Iowa St. 77.4% 4.2% 75.5% 57.3% 30.0% 14.7% 7.0% 3.3% 1.4%
Baylor 64.7% 5.5% 62.1% 43.8% 20.1% 8.6% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6%
Cincinnati 52.1% 6.1% 49.1% 31.5% 12.2% 5.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
Kansas St. 23.4% 4.0% 21.4% 12.0% 3.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
West Virginia 21.8% 4.5% 19.5% 10.3% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 22.5% 4.4% 20.1% 10.7% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Arizona St. 18.0% 3.9% 15.8% 8.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Utah 14.3% 3.8% 12.2% 6.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 14.3% 3.8% 12.1% 5.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
TCU 5.7% 1.2% 5.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 10.0% 3.0% 8.3% 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.8 0.1 1.6 10.4 27.1 34.2 20.1 5.7 0.8 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 7.5 0.2 2.9 14.6 31.7 32.1 14.7 3.4 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.8 0.0 0.2 2.2 10.7 26.1 32.3 20.6 6.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.6% 3.3 0.4 4.8 18.4 32.7 28.6 12.1 2.7 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 91.8% 1.8 8.3 31.1 37.6 18.8 4.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Final Four 70.0% 1.0 30.0 47.5 19.7 2.6 0.1
Final Game 45.0% 0.5 55.0 40.1 4.9
Champion 26.2% 0.3 73.8 26.2