Houston
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.7 #4
Expected Predictive Rating +24.9 #7
Pace 61.1 #352
Improvement +4.7 #21

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #16 B- A A+ D- F
Defense #3 A+ B+ A+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #362 1.45 #4 -2.3 #262
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #30 0.75 #175 +3.7 #33
Three Pointers 42% #158 1.05 #137 +1.3 #137
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #108 +2.7 #107
Freethrows 13.3 #342 78% #24 10.5 #301
Second Chance 40.3% #7 1.07 #147 0.43 #26
Turnovers 12.1% #4
Total Offense +10.0 #16

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #316 1.01 #29 +5.4 #32
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #148 0.55 #4 +1.8 #55
Three Pointers 45% #64 0.87 #32 +1.1 #138
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #8 +8.3 #8
Freethrows 17.7 #202 67% #12 11.8 #130
Second Chance 26.9% #58 0.97 #79 0.26 #47
Turnovers 23.7% #1
Total Defense +11.7 #3

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.0% #355 -0.9% #95
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.7% #42 -15.5% #5
Possession Length 17.9 #228 18.9 #353
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #137 0.07 #4
Improvement +2.7 #47 +2.1 #62

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.1% 9.6% 4.3%
#1 Seed 34.0% 42.1% 24.9%
Top 2 Seed 68.3% 77.4% 58.1%
Top 4 Seed 95.8% 98.4% 92.9%
Top 6 Seed 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.2 1.9 2.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 43.4% 55.6% 29.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.1% 98.7% 97.5%
Sweet Sixteen73.8% 76.2% 71.1%
Elite Eight46.1% 48.5% 43.3%
Final Four25.8% 28.0% 23.4%
Championship Game14.3% 16.0% 12.4%
National Champion7.4% 8.5% 6.2%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 53.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 46 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 5
Quad 28 - 018 - 5
Quad 35 - 023 - 5
Quad 45 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 307 Lehigh W 75 - 57 99% +15  1 - 0 +7 -1 F A F +8 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 157 Towson W 65 - 48 98% +9  2 - 0 +14 -2 C C D- +17 B A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 139 Oakland W 78 - 45 97% +21  3 - 0 +31 +10 C- B+ A+ +25 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 27 Auburn W 73 - 72 74% +3  4 - 0 +16 +9 C+ C- A+ +7 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 354 Rider W 91 - 45 100% +25  5 - 0 +30 +16 A+ F B+ +16 A+ B A+
 Mon, Nov 24 67 Syracuse W 78 - 74 OT 89% +2  6 - 0 +12 +4 D+ A+ B +8 B+ A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 25 22 Tennessee L 73 - 76 69% +2  6 - 1 +14 +21 A+ B A+ -8 A C- F
 Wed, Nov 26 84 Notre Dame W 66 - 56 91% +12  7 - 1 +17 +10 F A+ A+ +9 A+ B D-
 Sat, Dec 6 111 Florida St. W 82 - 67 94% +10  8 - 1 +19 +11 A+ F B +8 A D A+
 Wed, Dec 10 325 Jackson St. W 80 - 38 100% +22  9 - 1 +29 +7 D- A+ C- +25 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 235 New Orleans W 99 - 57 99% +25  10 - 1 +35 +22 A+ D- A+ +14 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 20 Arkansas W 94 - 85 67% +10  11 - 1 +26 +23 A+ A+ A+ +3 B+ C+ A
 Mon, Dec 29 128 Middle Tennessee W 69 - 60 97% +5  12 - 1 +8 +9 C C+ A+ +0 F B A+
 Sat, Jan 3 49 @Cincinnati W 67 - 60 77% -1  13 - 1 1 - 0 +21 +12 C A+ A+ +9 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 15 Texas Tech W 69 - 65 74% -0  14 - 1 2 - 0 +19 +6 D+ A A+ +13 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 41 @Baylor W 77 - 55 73% +11  15 - 1 3 - 0 +37 +19 C A+ A+ +21 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 52 West Virginia W 77 - 48 90% +16  16 - 1 4 - 0 +37 +20 B- A+ A+ +21 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 18 88 Arizona St. W 103 - 73 95% +22  17 - 1 5 - 0 +33 +29 A+ A+ A+ +4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 15 @Texas Tech W 71 - 70 53%
 Wed, Jan 28 45 @TCU W 71 - 63 77%
 Sat, Jan 31 49 Cincinnati W 72 - 58 91%
 Wed, Feb 4 53 Central Florida W 79 - 65 91%
 Sat, Feb 7 12 @BYU L 71 - 72 50%
 Tue, Feb 10 104 @Utah W 79 - 65 91%
 Sat, Feb 14 85 Kansas St. W 83 - 65 95%
 Mon, Feb 16 8 @Iowa St. L 68 - 70 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 2 Arizona W 73 - 72 55%
 Mon, Feb 23 19 @Kansas W 69 - 68 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 78 Colorado W 80 - 63 94%
 Wed, Mar 4 41 Baylor W 78 - 65 87%
 Sat, Mar 7 61 @Oklahoma St. W 80 - 70 82%
Totals 27 - 4 15 - 3 +22 +10 B- A A+ +12 A+ B+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 3.2 12.2 15.8 9.6 2.5 43.4 1st
2nd 0.1 3.5 12.6 12.0 2.8 0.2 31.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 6.8 4.8 0.4 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.9 0.2 6.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.3 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 1.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.6 6.5 13.7 20.8 24.5 18.6 9.9 2.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
17-1 97.8% 9.6    8.6 1.0
16-2 84.7% 15.8    10.5 5.1 0.1
15-3 49.6% 12.2    4.1 6.3 1.6 0.1
14-4 15.3% 3.2    0.3 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.0
13-5 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.4% 43.4 26.0 13.7 3.0 0.7 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.5% 100.0% 40.4% 59.6% 1.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 9.9% 100.0% 34.1% 65.9% 1.3 7.0 2.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 18.6% 100.0% 31.1% 68.9% 1.5 10.5 7.0 1.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 24.5% 100.0% 25.6% 74.4% 1.8 8.9 11.1 3.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-4 20.8% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 2.3 4.2 8.6 6.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.7% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 2.9 1.3 3.7 4.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 100.0%
12-6 6.5% 100.0% 9.9% 90.1% 3.7 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 2.6% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 4.3 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.7% 99.3% 6.4% 92.9% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
9-9 0.2% 100.0% 100.0% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 2.2 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.2 84.6 14.9 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.2 80.9 17.3 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.2 80.6 19.4