Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#138
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#98
Pace70.0#172
Improvement+1.9#48

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#129
First Shot+1.4#140
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#178
Layup/Dunks+0.8#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#206
Freethrows-2.2#299
Improvement+1.0#102

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#165
First Shot+1.0#137
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#244
Layups/Dunks-0.3#187
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#125
Freethrows-1.3#263
Improvement+0.9#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 13.4% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 70.4% 81.2% 61.5%
.500 or above in Conference 78.2% 83.5% 73.8%
Conference Champion 14.5% 18.0% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.9% 2.2%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round11.1% 13.4% 9.3%
Second Round1.1% 1.5% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 37 - 58 - 11
Quad 48 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 12 279 @Evansville W 77-72 69%     1 - 0 +1.5 +3.4 -2.0
  Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61-86 1%     1 - 1 +4.1 -2.5 +9.3
  Sun, Nov 23 113 Murray St. W 90-87 42%     2 - 1 +6.7 +10.6 -4.1
  Mon, Nov 24 62 George Washington L 79-92 24%     2 - 2 -3.9 +4.9 -8.5
  Tue, Nov 25 78 McNeese St. L 62-72 29%     2 - 3 -2.7 +7.8 -12.8
  Mon, Dec 1 112 UAB W 76-61 53%     3 - 3 +15.7 +8.0 +8.6
  Sun, Dec 7 88 Belmont L 77-78 45%    
  Wed, Dec 17 162 Kennesaw St. W 84-79 68%    
  Mon, Dec 29 7 @Houston L 58-79 2%    
  Fri, Jan 2 188 Louisiana Tech W 72-65 73%    
  Sun, Jan 4 133 Sam Houston St. W 79-76 60%    
  Thu, Jan 8 241 @UTEP W 70-67 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 116 @New Mexico St. L 68-73 34%    
  Wed, Jan 14 188 @Louisiana Tech W 69-68 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 242 Missouri St. W 73-64 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 238 @Jacksonville St. W 69-66 61%    
  Wed, Jan 28 98 Liberty L 73-74 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 123 Western Kentucky W 79-77 56%    
  Wed, Feb 4 207 Florida International W 80-72 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 287 @Delaware W 76-71 69%    
  Thu, Feb 12 162 @Kennesaw St. L 81-82 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 123 @Western Kentucky L 76-80 36%    
  Wed, Feb 18 133 @Sam Houston St. L 76-79 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 287 Delaware W 79-68 85%    
  Thu, Feb 26 241 UTEP W 73-64 78%    
  Sat, Feb 28 116 New Mexico St. W 71-70 55%    
  Thu, Mar 5 207 @Florida International W 77-75 55%    
  Sat, Mar 7 242 @Missouri St. W 70-67 61%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 4.1 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 14.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.2 4.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.9 3.9 1.2 0.2 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.3 3.5 0.7 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.9 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 4.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.3 0.5 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.6 5.6 8.1 9.8 11.6 12.3 11.9 11.0 9.0 6.2 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.5% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 95.8% 1.8    1.6 0.2
17-3 83.8% 3.1    2.5 0.7 0.0
16-4 66.4% 4.1    2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 36.2% 3.3    1.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.5% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.5% 14.5 9.0 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 67.6% 62.2% 5.4% 11.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.3%
19-1 0.6% 37.6% 37.1% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.8%
18-2 1.9% 36.2% 36.2% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.2
17-3 3.8% 29.8% 29.8% 12.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.6
16-4 6.2% 24.9% 24.9% 12.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 4.6
15-5 9.0% 19.9% 19.9% 12.7 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 7.2
14-6 11.0% 16.0% 16.0% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 9.2
13-7 11.9% 12.2% 12.2% 13.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 10.5
12-8 12.3% 9.1% 9.1% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 11.2
11-9 11.6% 6.7% 6.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 10.9
10-10 9.8% 3.0% 3.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.5
9-11 8.1% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.0
8-12 5.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.5
7-13 3.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
6-14 2.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-15 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.3 2.1 0.6 0.2 88.8 0.0%