Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#118
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#94
Pace70.2#118
Improvement-0.3#211

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#133
First Shot+1.6#121
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#191
Layup/Dunks+4.7#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement-0.5#213

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#126
First Shot+2.3#98
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#264
Layups/Dunks-1.8#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#17
Freethrows-1.3#273
Improvement+0.1#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 22.6% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.4% 22.6% 0.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 312 - 413 - 11
Quad 47 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 210   @ Abilene Christian W 79-56 62%     1 - 0 +22.9 +9.1 +13.4
  Nov 13, 2024 242   Evansville W 80-63 83%     2 - 0 +9.8 +3.0 +6.0
  Nov 16, 2024 145   Murray St. L 67-88 68%     2 - 1 -22.8 -3.7 -19.8
  Nov 21, 2024 186   Ohio W 83-81 OT 66%     3 - 1 +0.6 -3.4 +3.7
  Nov 22, 2024 189   South Florida W 95-88 67%     4 - 1 +5.5 +22.7 -17.3
  Nov 24, 2024 96   Bradley L 69-80 42%     4 - 2 -5.9 +3.9 -10.7
  Dec 01, 2024 108   @ UAB W 76-69 36%     5 - 2 +13.5 +2.3 +11.4
  Dec 07, 2024 127   @ Belmont L 79-82 43%     5 - 3 +1.7 +3.2 -1.3
  Dec 16, 2024 162   California Baptist W 75-64 71%     6 - 3 +8.1 +0.8 +7.1
  Dec 19, 2024 97   Lipscomb W 67-65 53%     7 - 3 +4.3 -0.8 +5.2
  Dec 23, 2024 6   @ Tennessee L 64-82 4%     7 - 4 +5.0 +4.4 +0.7
  Jan 02, 2025 257   @ Florida International W 73-69 70%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +1.6 -0.2 +1.7
  Jan 04, 2025 71   @ Liberty L 63-73 23%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +0.6 -0.3 +0.5
  Jan 09, 2025 137   Kennesaw St. W 84-79 66%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +3.7 +6.3 -3.0
  Jan 11, 2025 124   Jacksonville St. W 81-64 63%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +16.5 +7.7 +8.8
  Jan 18, 2025 154   Western Kentucky W 71-57 70%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +11.5 -0.8 +12.4
  Jan 23, 2025 170   @ Sam Houston St. W 77-75 53%     12 - 5 5 - 1 +4.2 +12.6 -8.2
  Jan 25, 2025 119   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-75 40%     12 - 6 5 - 2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2
  Jan 30, 2025 125   New Mexico St. L 57-61 64%     12 - 7 5 - 3 -4.7 -7.6 +2.6
  Feb 01, 2025 159   UTEP W 71-68 71%     13 - 7 6 - 3 +0.4 +2.9 -2.4
  Feb 06, 2025 124   @ Jacksonville St. L 63-77 42%     13 - 8 6 - 4 -9.0 -3.1 -6.7
  Feb 08, 2025 137   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-75 45%     14 - 8 7 - 4 +5.2 +5.6 -0.5
  Feb 15, 2025 154   @ Western Kentucky W 87-77 50%     15 - 8 8 - 4 +13.0 +13.7 -1.1
  Feb 20, 2025 119   Louisiana Tech L 74-85 61%     15 - 9 8 - 5 -11.0 +1.7 -12.8
  Feb 22, 2025 170   Sam Houston St. W 74-70 73%     16 - 9 9 - 5 +0.7 +6.4 -5.2
  Feb 27, 2025 125   @ New Mexico St. W 71-66 43%     17 - 9 10 - 5 +9.9 +5.5 +4.5
  Mar 01, 2025 159   @ UTEP W 76-75 OT 50%     18 - 9 11 - 5 +3.9 -5.4 +9.1
  Mar 06, 2025 71   Liberty L 81-86 42%     18 - 10 11 - 6 +0.0 +9.4 -9.1
  Mar 08, 2025 257   Florida International W 78-56 84%     19 - 10 12 - 6 +14.1 +4.5 +9.5
  Mar 13, 2025 119   Louisiana Tech W 71-70 51%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 11.4% 11.4% 12.5 0.0 6.0 5.0 0.4 0.0 88.6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 6.0 5.0 0.4 0.0 88.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.4% 100.0% 12.5 0.3 52.2 43.9 3.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 16.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 22.8%
Lose Out 49.6%