UAB
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#130
Expected Predictive Rating-6.1#275
Pace73.8#63
Improvement+1.4#89

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#78
First Shot+1.5#132
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#46
Layup/Dunks+4.4#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#312
Freethrows-1.1#248
Improvement-0.3#196

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#237
First Shot-2.0#241
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#188
Layups/Dunks-2.4#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#179
Freethrows+0.0#190
Improvement+1.7#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 3.4% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 13.8
.500 or above 51.5% 53.2% 27.2%
.500 or above in Conference 57.0% 57.8% 46.1%
Conference Champion 2.2% 2.3% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 3.8% 7.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round3.3% 3.4% 2.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 93.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 411 - 316 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 182   Vermont L 62-67 72%     0 - 1 -9.2 -3.1 -6.6
  Nov 07, 2024 282   Southern Miss W 98-84 86%     1 - 1 +4.3 +10.2 -7.5
  Nov 10, 2024 230   SE Louisiana W 82-72 79%     2 - 1 +3.4 +7.7 -4.5
  Nov 15, 2024 136   @ High Point L 65-68 40%     2 - 2 +1.4 -7.0 +8.3
  Nov 22, 2024 194   Longwood L 81-89 63%     2 - 3 -9.5 +5.8 -15.1
  Nov 23, 2024 155   Illinois St. L 83-84 56%     2 - 4 -0.8 +4.1 -4.8
  Nov 25, 2024 294   Louisiana W 98-86 80%     3 - 4 +5.1 +19.6 -14.7
  Dec 01, 2024 132   Middle Tennessee L 69-76 62%     3 - 5 -8.3 -2.8 -5.6
  Dec 06, 2024 338   Prairie View W 95-66 93%     4 - 5 +14.7 +8.1 +5.7
  Dec 15, 2024 109   Arkansas St. L 89-98 OT 54%     4 - 6 -8.2 -1.2 -5.1
  Dec 18, 2024 361   Alabama A&M W 96-67 96%     5 - 6 +11.0 +9.1 +0.2
  Dec 22, 2024 339   Alcorn St. W 85-69 93%    
  Dec 31, 2024 72   @ North Texas L 63-72 21%    
  Jan 04, 2025 251   Tulsa W 83-73 82%    
  Jan 07, 2025 202   Tulane W 81-74 74%    
  Jan 12, 2025 85   @ Florida Atlantic L 81-89 24%    
  Jan 15, 2025 179   @ South Florida L 78-79 50%    
  Jan 21, 2025 228   Texas San Antonio W 87-79 78%    
  Jan 26, 2025 37   @ Memphis L 77-90 11%    
  Jan 29, 2025 251   @ Tulsa W 80-76 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 191   Charlotte W 77-71 72%    
  Feb 03, 2025 72   North Texas L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 11, 2025 162   @ East Carolina L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 16, 2025 179   South Florida W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 196   @ Rice W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 23, 2025 119   Temple W 78-76 58%    
  Feb 27, 2025 110   @ Wichita St. L 77-82 33%    
  Mar 02, 2025 37   Memphis L 80-87 26%    
  Mar 06, 2025 85   Florida Atlantic L 84-86 44%    
  Mar 09, 2025 202   @ Tulane W 78-77 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 5.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.3 3.3 6.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 6.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 5.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 4.0 4.7 0.9 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 4.6 1.3 0.1 8.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.4 1.9 0.1 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 4.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.8 8.2 11.8 14.2 15.2 14.3 11.4 7.9 4.6 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 90.2% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 66.5% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 33.9% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 30.0% 27.5% 2.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.4%
16-2 0.3% 28.0% 27.3% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0%
15-3 1.0% 14.3% 14.3% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-4 2.3% 12.6% 12.6% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1
13-5 4.6% 10.6% 10.6% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.1
12-6 7.9% 8.8% 8.8% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.2
11-7 11.4% 5.2% 5.2% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.8
10-8 14.3% 2.9% 2.9% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.8
9-9 15.2% 1.7% 1.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 15.0
8-10 14.2% 1.2% 1.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.0
7-11 11.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 11.7
6-12 8.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.2
5-13 4.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.7
4-14 2.6% 2.6
3-15 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 96.7 0.0%