UAB
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#96
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#143
Pace72.2#82
Improvement+4.5#27

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#39
First Shot+3.0#93
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#18
Layup/Dunks+4.9#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#283
Freethrows-0.5#208
Improvement+3.4#29

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#218
First Shot-1.6#229
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#187
Layups/Dunks-1.2#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#228
Freethrows-0.6#223
Improvement+1.1#122
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 12.6% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.7
.500 or above 99.4% 99.9% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 11.2% 16.6% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.7% 12.6% 8.6%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 53.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 69 - 10
Quad 411 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 240   Vermont L 62-67 87%     0 - 1 -12.1 -4.0 -8.6
  Nov 07, 2024 248   Southern Miss W 98-84 88%     1 - 1 +6.4 +11.6 -7.0
  Nov 10, 2024 228   SE Louisiana W 82-72 85%     2 - 1 +3.8 +6.1 -2.5
  Nov 15, 2024 107   @ High Point L 65-68 44%     2 - 2 +3.5 -7.6 +11.0
  Nov 22, 2024 190   Longwood L 81-89 73%     2 - 3 -9.4 +3.6 -12.7
  Nov 23, 2024 135   Illinois St. L 83-84 63%     2 - 4 +0.5 +3.1 -2.5
  Nov 25, 2024 301   Louisiana W 98-86 88%     3 - 4 +4.2 +21.1 -17.1
  Dec 01, 2024 120   Middle Tennessee L 69-76 69%     3 - 5 -7.2 -2.1 -5.1
  Dec 06, 2024 348   Prairie View W 95-66 96%     4 - 5 +14.1 +11.2 +1.9
  Dec 15, 2024 93   Arkansas St. L 89-98 OT 56%     4 - 6 -5.6 -0.9 -2.7
  Dec 18, 2024 360   Alabama A&M W 96-67 97%     5 - 6 +12.1 +10.2 +0.2
  Dec 22, 2024 320   Alcorn St. W 91-74 93%     6 - 6 +5.1 +20.6 -14.2
  Dec 31, 2024 70   @ North Texas L 75-78 30%     6 - 7 0 - 1 +7.3 +17.6 -10.6
  Jan 04, 2025 238   Tulsa W 83-51 87%     7 - 7 1 - 1 +25.0 +5.7 +18.6
  Jan 07, 2025 141   Tulane W 81-69 72%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +10.7 +7.8 +2.8
  Jan 12, 2025 106   @ Florida Atlantic W 81-76 43%     9 - 7 3 - 1 +11.7 +9.6 +2.1
  Jan 15, 2025 177   @ South Florida W 92-83 62%     10 - 7 4 - 1 +10.7 +24.1 -13.1
  Jan 21, 2025 202   Texas San Antonio W 81-78 81%     11 - 7 5 - 1 -1.5 +6.6 -8.0
  Jan 26, 2025 41   @ Memphis L 77-100 19%     11 - 8 5 - 2 -8.9 +2.5 -8.5
  Jan 29, 2025 238   @ Tulsa W 78-68 75%     12 - 8 6 - 2 +8.0 +8.5 -0.1
  Feb 01, 2025 221   Charlotte W 96-78 84%     13 - 8 7 - 2 +12.2 +25.3 -12.1
  Feb 03, 2025 70   North Texas W 64-61 49%     14 - 8 8 - 2 +8.3 +3.0 +5.6
  Feb 11, 2025 150   @ East Carolina W 78-76 53%    
  Feb 16, 2025 177   South Florida W 82-74 79%    
  Feb 19, 2025 192   @ Rice W 79-75 62%    
  Feb 23, 2025 125   Temple W 85-80 71%    
  Feb 27, 2025 134   @ Wichita St. W 81-80 51%    
  Mar 02, 2025 41   Memphis L 80-84 37%    
  Mar 06, 2025 106   Florida Atlantic W 85-82 63%    
  Mar 09, 2025 141   @ Tulane W 78-77 52%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 3.5 5.0 2.0 11.2 1st
2nd 0.4 4.9 14.9 13.9 4.3 38.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.4 13.7 9.8 1.8 29.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 6.4 3.8 0.3 11.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 2.6 0.3 5.5 5th
6th 0.7 1.5 0.3 2.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 1.4 5.5 14.1 22.6 25.8 19.1 9.4 2.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.0    1.3 0.7
15-3 53.6% 5.0    1.8 2.9 0.4
14-4 18.1% 3.5    0.7 2.0 0.8 0.0
13-5 2.8% 0.7    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.2% 11.2 3.8 5.9 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.0% 21.6% 21.6% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.6
15-3 9.4% 17.2% 17.2% 12.1 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 7.7
14-4 19.1% 14.6% 14.6% 12.4 0.1 1.6 0.9 0.1 16.3
13-5 25.8% 11.4% 11.4% 12.7 0.0 1.2 1.5 0.3 22.9
12-6 22.6% 8.3% 8.3% 12.9 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 20.8
11-7 14.1% 6.7% 6.7% 13.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 13.1
10-8 5.5% 2.2% 2.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.4
9-9 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 1.4
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.6 4.8 4.2 1.1 0.1 89.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.4 2.3 53.5 44.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%