UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.8 #117
Expected Predictive Rating +2.2 #128
Pace 72.9 #76
Improvement -1.5 #256

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #125 D B- A+ C C-
Defense #126 C A- C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #21 1.17 #159 +4.7 #41
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #62 0.67 #303 +1.3 #104
Three Pointers 27% #363 0.79 #361 -10.3 #363
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #297 -4.2 #297
Freethrows 17.5 #176 72% #203 12.6 #182
Second Chance 34.1% #86 1.07 #151 0.36 #91
Turnovers 11.6% #2
Total Offense +1.5 #125

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #237 1.20 #243 +0.3 #162
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #190 0.63 #23 +1.4 #84
Three Pointers 43% #107 1.03 #209 -1.6 #254
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #172 +0.2 #172
Freethrows 14.5 #51 77% #332 11.1 #92
Second Chance 26.3% #41 0.95 #58 0.25 #32
Turnovers 16.7% #167
Total Defense +1.3 #126

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #229 -0.1% #153
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.8% #303 -0.3% #178
Possession Length 16.1 #64 17.4 #198
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #54 0.17 #163
Improvement -1.2 #254 -0.3 #208

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 4.8% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.8
.500 or above 91.2% 93.5% 76.5%
.500 or above in Conference 70.1% 74.3% 43.0%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.6% 4.8% 3.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Away) - 86.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 37 - 69 - 12
Quad 49 - 218 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106 - 55 99% +29  1 - 0 +24 +5 F B- A+ +10 A+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 26 @North Carolina St. L 70 - 94 8% -11  1 - 1 -6 +1 F B+ A+ -5 D- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 311 Alabama St. L 74 - 77 91% -4  1 - 2 -15 -9 F D- B- -5 D A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 98 High Point W 91 - 74 52% +3  2 - 2 +19 +7 B F A+ +11 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 191 South Alabama W 80 - 72 77% +5  3 - 2 +3 +14 A- C A -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 146 Southern Illinois W 81 - 73 57% +5  4 - 2 +9 +11 C- A+ A+ -2 B- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 256 UTEP W 75 - 59 77% +7  5 - 2 +11 +8 F A A+ +4 C- A+ A-
 Mon, Dec 1 128 @Middle Tennessee L 61 - 76 41% -4  5 - 3 -10 -4 F A+ C- -6 B+ F C-
 Fri, Dec 5 158 @Drake W 74 - 69 49% +2  6 - 3 +8 +5 F A D+ +4 A+ B D-
 Sun, Dec 14 112 Troy L 85 - 86 59% -0  6 - 4 -1 +15 A+ A B+ -15 F C F
 Wed, Dec 17 316 Cleveland St. W 101 - 77 92% +7  7 - 4 +12 +13 A C- A+ -3 F A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 205 UNC Asheville W 72 - 47 79% +13  8 - 4 +19 +3 D+ D+ A+ +18 A+ A+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 103 Wichita St. L 70 - 75 55% +6  8 - 5 0 - 1 -3 +3 D A- A+ -7 D+ C B+
 Sun, Jan 4 74 @South Florida W 109 - 106 2OT 23% -3  9 - 5 1 - 1 +14 +11 C F A+ +2 C- A C-
 Wed, Jan 7 95 Florida Atlantic L 71 - 76 51% -7  9 - 6 1 - 2 -2 -4 F B B +2 A+ B+ D+
 Sun, Jan 11 267 @East Carolina W 87 - 85 OT 71% +2  10 - 6 2 - 2 -1 +1 F C A+ -3 D C B+
 Wed, Jan 14 172 @Tulane W 82 - 69 53% +4  11 - 6 3 - 2 +15 +10 D- A+ A +5 B D C
 Sun, Jan 18 70 Tulsa L 77 - 99 41% -10  11 - 7 3 - 3 -17 +1 C- F A+ -18 F A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 74 South Florida L 69 - 82 43% -8  11 - 8 3 - 4 -8 -7 F A A+ -0 C C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 345 @Texas San Antonio W 83 - 71 87%
 Sat, Jan 31 127 @North Texas L 67 - 69 42%
 Thu, Feb 5 92 Memphis W 75 - 74 50%
 Sun, Feb 8 239 Rice W 80 - 70 83%
 Wed, Feb 11 70 @Tulsa L 76 - 84 22%
 Sun, Feb 15 172 Tulane W 79 - 72 74%
 Wed, Feb 18 140 @Temple L 75 - 76 45%
 Sun, Feb 22 92 @Memphis L 72 - 78 29%
 Sun, Mar 1 127 North Texas W 70 - 66 64%
 Wed, Mar 4 173 @Charlotte W 75 - 74 54%
 Sun, Mar 8 267 East Carolina W 81 - 69 86%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 9 +3 +2 D B- A+ +1 C A- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 3.3 0.4 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 6.3 1.8 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.4 6.1 5.1 0.2 11.7 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 9.5 1.2 14.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 9.8 4.6 0.1 15.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 6.4 7.9 0.6 15.5 8th
9th 0.5 4.3 7.1 1.7 0.0 13.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 3.6 1.5 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.4 9.2 16.5 23.3 22.0 15.1 7.3 2.0 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 66.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 28.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.4% 8.3% 8.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 2.0% 12.5% 12.5% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.8
12-6 7.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 6.4
11-7 15.1% 7.9% 7.9% 12.3 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 13.9
10-8 22.0% 4.9% 4.9% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 20.9
9-9 23.3% 2.8% 2.8% 12.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 22.6
8-10 16.5% 1.8% 1.8% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 16.2
7-11 9.2% 1.6% 1.6% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.0
6-12 3.4% 0.9% 0.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 3.3
5-13 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 12.5 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%