UAB
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#108
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#127
Pace71.2#91
Improvement+2.2#101

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#36
First Shot+3.6#82
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#19
Layup/Dunks+5.2#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#75
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#273
Freethrows-0.3#194
Improvement+3.4#38

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#275
First Shot-3.2#286
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#212
Layups/Dunks-1.9#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#250
Freethrows-0.9#252
Improvement-1.2#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 14.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.4% 14.0% 0.0%
Second Round1.0% 1.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 5
Quad 36 - 58 - 10
Quad 412 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 213   Vermont L 62-67 82%     0 - 1 -10.7 -4.8 -6.4
  Nov 07, 2024 293   Southern Miss W 98-84 90%     1 - 1 +3.6 +10.6 -8.7
  Nov 10, 2024 218   SE Louisiana W 82-72 82%     2 - 1 +4.1 +5.4 -1.4
  Nov 15, 2024 88   @ High Point L 65-68 32%     2 - 2 +5.6 -6.1 +11.6
  Nov 22, 2024 227   Longwood L 81-89 76%     2 - 3 -11.5 +2.8 -14.0
  Nov 23, 2024 136   Illinois St. L 83-84 59%     2 - 4 +0.4 +3.4 -2.9
  Nov 25, 2024 305   Louisiana W 98-86 87%     3 - 4 +3.6 +21.7 -18.3
  Dec 01, 2024 118   Middle Tennessee L 69-76 64%     3 - 5 -6.8 -2.7 -4.2
  Dec 06, 2024 358   Prairie View W 95-66 97%     4 - 5 +10.3 +9.8 -0.5
  Dec 15, 2024 98   Arkansas St. L 89-98 OT 56%     4 - 6 -6.8 -1.7 -3.1
  Dec 18, 2024 359   Alabama A&M W 96-67 97%     5 - 6 +10.2 +10.7 -2.1
  Dec 22, 2024 327   Alcorn St. W 91-74 93%     6 - 6 +4.4 +19.8 -14.1
  Dec 31, 2024 79   @ North Texas L 75-78 27%     6 - 7 0 - 1 +7.0 +16.5 -9.8
  Jan 04, 2025 250   Tulsa W 83-51 86%     7 - 7 1 - 1 +24.4 +5.3 +18.3
  Jan 07, 2025 141   Tulane W 81-69 70%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +10.3 +6.5 +3.7
  Jan 12, 2025 107   @ Florida Atlantic W 81-76 39%     9 - 7 3 - 1 +11.6 +10.1 +1.5
  Jan 15, 2025 189   @ South Florida W 92-83 60%     10 - 7 4 - 1 +10.2 +25.1 -14.5
  Jan 21, 2025 184   Texas San Antonio W 81-78 77%     11 - 7 5 - 1 -1.1 +7.8 -8.8
  Jan 26, 2025 50   @ Memphis L 77-100 17%     11 - 8 5 - 2 -9.2 +2.7 -9.1
  Jan 29, 2025 250   @ Tulsa W 78-68 71%     12 - 8 6 - 2 +7.9 +8.4 -0.1
  Feb 01, 2025 243   Charlotte W 96-78 85%     13 - 8 7 - 2 +10.7 +23.3 -11.6
  Feb 03, 2025 79   North Texas W 64-61 47%     14 - 8 8 - 2 +7.5 +1.6 +6.2
  Feb 11, 2025 163   @ East Carolina L 75-82 55%     14 - 9 8 - 3 -4.4 +10.1 -15.2
  Feb 16, 2025 189   South Florida W 85-78 78%     15 - 9 9 - 3 +2.7 +11.7 -9.0
  Feb 19, 2025 191   @ Rice W 90-89 60%     16 - 9 10 - 3 +2.2 +22.5 -20.3
  Feb 23, 2025 155   Temple W 80-64 73%     17 - 9 11 - 3 +13.5 +9.5 +5.3
  Feb 27, 2025 126   @ Wichita St. W 80-72 46%     18 - 9 12 - 3 +12.8 +9.9 +2.8
  Mar 02, 2025 50   Memphis L 81-88 33%     18 - 10 12 - 4 +1.3 +9.1 -7.4
  Mar 06, 2025 107   Florida Atlantic W 89-80 60%     19 - 10 13 - 4 +10.1 +15.2 -5.1
  Mar 09, 2025 141   @ Tulane L 68-85 50%     19 - 11 13 - 5 -13.2 +2.2 -16.8
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 9.4% 9.4% 12.7 0.0 4.0 4.5 1.0 90.6
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 4.0 4.5 1.0 90.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.4% 100.0% 12.7 0.2 41.9 47.8 10.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 18.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 39.7%
Lose Out 32.4%