American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
72 Memphis 25.3%   12   5 - 7 0 - 0 18 - 13 13 - 5 +7.7      +1.5 128 +6.2 34 73.5 72 +4.4 105 0.0 1
79 South Florida 20.3%   7 - 5 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 6 +6.9      +4.3 76 +2.7 97 77.6 25 +6.2 90 0.0 1
92 Tulsa 17.3%   10 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 7 12 - 6 +6.1      +6.2 55 -0.1 168 69.3 193 +14.1 37 0.0 1
98 Wichita St. 13.4%   7 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +5.5      +2.7 108 +2.8 94 65.2 294 +1.6 147 0.0 1
107 UAB 9.6%   8 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +4.2      +2.8 107 +1.5 122 71.9 111 +2.7 133 0.0 1
114 Florida Atlantic 7.8%   6 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +3.4      +3.3 97 +0.1 155 71.6 121 +3.7 118 0.0 1
146 North Texas 3.4%   7 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.0      -3.8 273 +4.8 53 62.3 345 +2.1 140 0.0 1
151 Temple 3.0%   7 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 9 +0.5      +3.8 86 -3.3 289 65.7 280 +0.4 159 0.0 1
183 Charlotte 1.1%   5 - 7 0 - 0 13 - 17 8 - 10 -1.7      +0.8 142 -2.5 251 60.9 357 -3.7 224 0.0 1
194 Tulane 0.9%   8 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 16 6 - 12 -2.2      +0.2 161 -2.4 246 66.7 253 +2.0 142 0.0 1
231 Rice 0.3%   4 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -4.4      -2.1 225 -2.3 241 65.1 298 -5.3 248 0.0 1
271 East Carolina 0.1%   4 - 8 0 - 0 9 - 21 5 - 13 -5.9      -5.7 325 -0.3 173 72.6 93 -7.8 286 0.0 1
287 Texas San Antonio 0.1%   2 - 8 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -6.7      -5.7 326 -1.0 200 73.1 82 -8.6 301 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 72 Memphis 66 80 Mississippi St. 71   
Sat, Dec 20 173 Portland St. 61 194 Tulane 63   
Sat, Dec 20 262 Pepperdine 84 231 Rice 62   
Sun, Dec 21 183 Charlotte 88 200 Illinois-Chicago 76   
Sun, Dec 21 107 UAB 72 232 UNC Asheville 47   
Sun, Dec 21 259 Eastern Kentucky 57 98 Wichita St. 88   
Sun, Dec 21 79 South Florida 94 292 Maryland Baltimore Co. 69   
Mon, Dec 22 248 Princeton 61 151 Temple 65   
Mon, Dec 22 112 Seattle 71 287 Texas San Antonio 68   
Mon, Dec 22 290 Denver 85 92 Tulsa 90   
Mon, Dec 22 281 Alabama St. 67 72 Memphis 88   
Mon, Dec 22 271 East Carolina 51 21 North Carolina 99   
Tue, Dec 23 114 Florida Atlantic 80 49 Central Florida 85   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 3.0 32.9 21.0 14.4 10.4 7.5 5.6 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
South Florida 3.6 24.0 18.2 14.9 11.9 9.9 7.5 5.4 3.7 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
Tulsa 3.6 23.5 18.2 14.9 12.1 9.5 7.5 5.4 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
Wichita St. 4.1 17.7 15.8 14.4 13.0 11.0 9.0 7.1 5.1 3.3 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1
UAB 4.8 11.9 13.0 13.4 12.9 11.5 10.5 8.7 7.0 4.9 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.3
Florida Atlantic 5.3 9.1 10.7 11.4 12.1 11.6 11.6 10.1 8.7 6.2 4.2 2.6 1.2 0.5
North Texas 6.7 3.8 5.5 7.2 8.9 10.3 11.8 12.0 12.3 10.3 8.0 5.3 3.3 1.5
Temple 6.1 4.6 7.4 9.3 10.8 11.8 12.2 11.5 10.1 8.3 6.1 4.2 2.4 1.1
Charlotte 8.0 1.1 2.4 3.7 5.6 7.1 9.4 11.3 12.9 13.9 12.3 9.5 7.0 3.8
Tulane 9.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.0 5.4 7.5 9.6 12.3 15.3 16.0 14.0 9.6
Rice 9.7 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.4 4.9 6.6 9.2 12.0 14.7 16.2 15.9 12.8
East Carolina 10.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.0 6.6 9.4 13.7 17.2 20.9 22.4
Texas San Antonio 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.9 8.6 13.0 16.5 21.6 25.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.4 8.6 12.3 15.5 16.8 15.2 11.6 6.4 2.7 0.6
South Florida 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.6 7.9 11.5 14.3 16.0 14.8 12.5 8.1 4.0 1.6 0.3
Tulsa 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.0 7.9 11.5 14.2 15.2 15.0 12.2 8.1 4.3 1.6 0.3
Wichita St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.7 6.4 10.2 13.0 15.4 15.4 13.6 9.7 5.9 2.8 0.8 0.1
UAB 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.3 5.6 8.8 12.1 14.2 15.5 14.1 11.1 7.1 3.7 1.6 0.5 0.1
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.5 7.2 10.7 13.6 15.1 14.5 12.2 9.2 5.5 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
North Texas 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 5.0 8.5 11.7 14.5 15.3 14.0 11.0 7.5 4.8 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Temple 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.7 6.3 9.6 12.9 15.0 15.1 13.0 10.0 6.5 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.6 9.3 13.0 15.4 15.4 13.6 10.5 6.6 3.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tulane 6 - 12 0.3 1.3 3.6 7.6 11.2 14.3 15.4 14.5 12.1 8.4 5.4 3.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rice 6 - 12 0.3 1.5 4.5 8.6 12.8 15.5 15.5 14.0 10.6 7.6 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 5 - 13 0.8 3.4 7.9 13.3 16.8 17.0 14.9 11.1 7.2 4.2 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 1.0 4.4 9.2 14.1 17.1 16.3 14.3 10.0 6.8 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 32.9% 21.4 8.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Florida 24.0% 14.7 6.6 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 23.5% 14.3 6.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 17.7% 10.2 5.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UAB 11.9% 6.3 3.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 9.1% 4.8 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Texas 3.8% 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Temple 4.6% 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulane 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 25.3% 24.5% 0.7% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 9.7 11.2 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 74.7 1.0%
South Florida 20.3% 19.6% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 7.4 10.0 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 79.7 0.8%
Tulsa 17.3% 16.2% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 6.8 8.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 82.7 1.2%
Wichita St. 13.4% 13.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.4 7.4 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 86.6 0.1%
UAB 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 5.1 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 90.4 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 92.2 0.0%
North Texas 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 96.6 0.0%
Temple 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 97.0 0.0%
Charlotte 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 98.9 0.0%
Tulane 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.1 0.0%
Rice 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 25.3% 0.6% 25.0% 5.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 20.3% 0.5% 20.0% 4.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 17.3% 0.9% 16.7% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 13.4% 0.1% 13.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 9.6% 0.0% 9.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 7.8% 0.1% 7.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 3.4% 0.0% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 98.5 1.4
2nd Round 18.9% 0.2 81.2 18.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0