American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
37 Memphis 84.2%   10   9 - 2 0 - 0 25 - 6 15 - 3 +12.2      +7.7 26 +4.4 65 75.2 42 +20.0 9 0.0 1
80 North Texas 18.1%   6 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +7.0      +0.8 146 +6.1 32 57.8 362 +7.3 88 0.0 1
85 Florida Atlantic 14.6%   6 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 6 +6.5      +6.1 43 +0.4 152 76.9 25 +3.6 112 0.0 1
110 Wichita St. 6.7%   8 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +3.7      +1.4 135 +2.3 110 73.2 72 +7.8 82 0.0 1
119 Temple 4.6%   6 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 8 +2.6      +0.6 152 +2.1 113 69.4 165 +3.5 113 0.0 1
129 UAB 3.5%   5 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 9 +1.9      +4.0 77 -2.1 236 73.7 64 -6.0 273 0.0 1
159 East Carolina 1.8%   6 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 10 -0.2      -0.5 183 +0.4 154 63.3 319 -0.9 180 0.0 1
180 South Florida 0.9%   5 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 11 -1.0      0.0 174 -1.0 202 69.3 168 -4.1 236 0.0 1
193 Charlotte 1.1%   5 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 11 -1.4      +0.8 148 -2.2 239 60.3 353 -2.8 212 0.0 1
196 Rice 0.8%   8 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 14 7 - 11 -1.6      -1.7 221 +0.1 162 65.3 271 +2.8 124 0.0 1
203 Tulane 0.7%   4 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -2.0      -0.7 189 -1.2 205 68.4 196 -8.9 313 0.0 1
230 Texas San Antonio 0.3%   4 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 17 6 - 12 -3.6      -0.2 178 -3.3 282 75.0 44 -1.6 191 0.0 1
252 Tulsa 0.2%   3 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 13 -5.0      -2.7 246 -2.2 241 69.9 154 -10.4 323 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 1.5 69.8 17.6 6.8 3.0 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Texas 3.2 18.5 29.2 18.5 11.9 8.0 5.1 3.6 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
Florida Atlantic 3.6 15.2 22.8 20.2 13.6 9.2 6.9 4.6 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1
Wichita St. 4.9 6.3 12.9 16.5 15.8 13.3 10.2 7.9 6.0 4.3 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.6
Temple 5.7 4.3 9.2 12.7 13.6 13.0 11.5 9.8 8.1 6.3 4.4 3.5 2.4 1.3
UAB 6.4 2.5 6.4 9.7 11.7 12.3 12.1 10.9 9.8 8.4 6.2 4.8 3.4 1.8
East Carolina 7.2 1.3 4.5 7.4 9.1 10.5 10.9 10.8 10.5 9.6 8.5 7.1 5.8 3.9
South Florida 8.6 0.5 1.7 3.4 5.1 6.3 8.1 9.1 10.4 11.8 12.0 12.2 11.1 8.3
Charlotte 8.3 0.6 2.2 4.3 5.9 7.4 8.8 9.7 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.0 10.0 7.6
Rice 8.3 0.6 2.0 3.7 6.0 7.6 9.2 10.5 11.3 11.2 11.0 10.6 9.0 7.3
Tulane 8.1 0.6 2.3 4.3 6.7 8.2 9.3 10.4 11.1 11.0 10.8 9.9 8.6 6.8
Texas San Antonio 9.5 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.1 4.6 5.8 7.6 9.2 10.5 11.9 13.8 14.7 15.9
Tulsa 10.2 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.0 4.2 5.7 7.4 9.2 11.9 14.1 18.0 22.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.2 6.2 10.1 15.7 19.9 20.3 15.7 6.4
North Texas 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.4 6.2 9.6 12.9 15.5 16.3 14.2 10.3 5.6 2.2 0.4
Florida Atlantic 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 5.0 8.1 11.4 14.1 16.1 15.0 12.0 7.8 3.9 1.3 0.2
Wichita St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.3 9.6 12.5 15.2 15.5 13.8 10.2 6.1 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
Temple 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.7 9.0 12.2 14.4 14.9 13.1 10.7 7.3 4.2 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
UAB 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.7 7.8 11.6 13.9 15.0 14.4 11.7 8.3 5.1 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 8 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.4 7.2 10.6 13.1 14.0 14.3 11.8 9.2 6.1 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
South Florida 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.5 5.1 9.1 12.4 14.5 15.3 13.3 10.7 7.6 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.7 7.9 11.5 13.6 14.5 13.3 11.4 8.7 5.6 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.0 7.3 11.2 13.9 14.8 14.5 12.3 8.7 5.8 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulane 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.7 6.9 10.5 13.4 15.1 14.3 12.1 9.3 6.3 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 6 - 12 0.4 1.8 4.7 8.5 12.0 14.9 14.9 13.9 11.2 7.8 4.9 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 5 - 13 0.6 3.0 6.8 11.6 15.1 16.1 14.8 12.4 8.2 5.6 3.3 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 69.8% 56.0 11.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Texas 18.5% 10.5 6.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 15.2% 8.8 5.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 6.3% 3.0 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Temple 4.3% 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UAB 2.5% 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 1.3% 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Florida 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tulane 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 84.2% 48.4% 35.8% 10   0.8 2.0 3.6 6.1 7.0 8.3 9.1 10.4 12.8 13.8 9.8 0.5 15.8 69.4%
North Texas 18.1% 17.0% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 5.6 9.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 81.9 1.3%
Florida Atlantic 14.6% 14.1% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 4.5 7.7 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 85.4 0.6%
Wichita St. 6.7% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.3 0.1%
Temple 4.6% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 95.4 0.0%
UAB 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 96.5 0.0%
East Carolina 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 98.2 0.0%
South Florida 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.1 0.0%
Charlotte 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.9 0.0%
Rice 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.2 0.0%
Tulane 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.3 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.7 0.0%
Tulsa 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 84.2% 5.7% 81.2% 45.1% 16.4% 6.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%
North Texas 18.1% 0.8% 17.7% 5.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 14.6% 0.3% 14.4% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 6.7% 0.1% 6.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 4.6% 0.0% 4.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 3.5% 0.1% 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 62.8 36.9 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 1.3 0.0 66.3 33.5 0.2
2nd Round 53.1% 0.6 46.9 49.4 3.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 19.1% 0.2 80.9 18.8 0.3
Elite Eight 6.7% 0.1 93.3 6.7 0.0
Final Four 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4 0.0
Final Game 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3