American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
41 Memphis 83.4%   10   18 - 4 8 - 1 26 - 5 16 - 2 +11.7      +5.1 56 +6.6 37 76.4 23 +17.0 16 +13.7 1
70 North Texas 21.8%   14 - 6 7 - 3 20 - 8 13 - 5 +7.8      +1.1 147 +6.7 34 56.2 362 +7.9 70 +7.6 3
96 UAB 10.7%   14 - 8 8 - 2 19 - 11 13 - 5 +4.9      +6.5 39 -1.6 218 72.2 82 +1.9 143 +11.5 2
106 Florida Atlantic 6.1%   11 - 10 5 - 4 16 - 14 10 - 8 +4.2      +4.9 60 -0.7 196 73.1 62 +2.9 128 +3.1 6
125 Temple 3.6%   13 - 8 6 - 3 18 - 12 11 - 7 +2.1      +2.6 103 -0.5 187 72.7 71 +3.6 117 +5.8 4
134 Wichita St. 1.6%   10 - 10 1 - 7 15 - 15 6 - 12 +1.5      +0.9 156 +0.7 150 71.4 96 +1.1 153 -10.7 13
141 Tulane 2.9%   10 - 10 6 - 3 15 - 14 11 - 7 +1.2      -0.1 182 +1.3 140 67.9 194 -1.7 198 +5.3 5
150 East Carolina 1.8%   10 - 10 4 - 5 15 - 14 9 - 9 +0.8      +0.4 172 +0.4 157 65.5 257 -0.4 172 +1.3 8
177 South Florida 0.7%   10 - 11 4 - 5 13 - 17 7 - 11 -0.8      -1.0 205 +0.2 160 69.5 142 -2.0 203 -0.4 9
192 Rice 0.5%   11 - 10 2 - 7 14 - 16 5 - 13 -1.5      -0.6 187 -0.9 201 65.3 262 -1.5 194 -6.7 11
202 Texas San Antonio 0.5%   8 - 11 4 - 5 12 - 16 8 - 10 -2.1      +1.4 137 -3.4 276 74.4 44 -0.6 180 +1.7 7
221 Charlotte 0.2%   7 - 14 1 - 8 10 - 20 4 - 14 -3.3      -1.2 211 -2.1 234 63.1 315 -5.3 249 -9.5 12
238 Tulsa 0.1%   7 - 13 3 - 6 9 - 20 5 - 13 -4.5      -3.2 258 -1.3 213 67.2 212 -7.4 287 -3.8 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 1.1 92.8 5.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Texas 2.5 8.4 53.2 26.3 7.6 3.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
UAB 2.7 11.2 38.4 29.9 11.7 5.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Florida Atlantic 5.2 0.3 4.4 10.5 20.4 22.4 21.2 12.7 5.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Temple 4.6 0.9 8.4 15.7 25.7 21.6 16.3 7.6 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
Wichita St. 9.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.3 7.1 14.1 18.3 18.2 16.4 12.3 8.9
Tulane 4.6 0.8 9.5 15.9 26.4 20.4 14.1 8.3 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.1
East Carolina 6.5 1.0 3.6 10.9 15.1 19.3 22.5 15.0 7.6 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1
South Florida 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 6.9 12.4 21.1 23.0 17.0 10.4 3.6 0.6
Rice 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.9 9.0 14.6 19.1 20.6 19.0 12.2
Texas San Antonio 7.8 0.1 0.8 3.8 7.3 12.6 18.9 22.5 16.1 9.8 5.4 2.3 0.5
Charlotte 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 3.1 5.8 10.2 16.8 23.6 39.5
Tulsa 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.9 7.4 13.5 19.9 23.6 21.3 9.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 16 - 2 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.5 11.7 25.5 36.5 21.7
North Texas 13 - 5 0.1 0.5 2.8 9.1 19.9 30.5 26.1 11.0
UAB 13 - 5 0.1 1.4 5.5 14.1 22.6 25.8 19.1 9.4 2.0
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 0.0 0.9 3.9 10.6 20.7 25.7 21.9 12.2 3.7 0.3
Temple 11 - 7 0.3 1.5 6.5 15.4 23.4 24.7 17.9 8.2 2.0 0.2
Wichita St. 6 - 12 0.2 1.3 5.3 12.9 19.6 23.3 19.2 12.0 5.0 1.1 0.1
Tulane 11 - 7 0.3 1.6 7.0 15.1 21.5 24.5 18.0 9.0 2.8 0.3
East Carolina 9 - 9 0.2 1.5 5.3 12.7 20.7 23.8 20.2 11.4 3.7 0.6
South Florida 7 - 11 3.5 14.1 22.3 25.2 20.2 10.1 3.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Rice 5 - 13 1.9 8.1 18.9 25.2 22.7 14.7 6.4 1.8 0.3
Texas San Antonio 8 - 10 1.3 6.3 14.8 22.3 23.1 17.8 9.9 3.6 0.8 0.1
Charlotte 4 - 14 2.3 10.3 21.1 26.2 21.4 12.4 4.7 1.4 0.2
Tulsa 5 - 13 7.6 21.2 28.3 23.1 13.1 5.3 1.3 0.3 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 92.8% 81.3 9.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
North Texas 8.4% 2.2 4.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
UAB 11.2% 3.8 5.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
Florida Atlantic 0.3% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
Temple 0.9% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Wichita St.
Tulane 0.8% 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
East Carolina
South Florida 0.0% 0.0
Rice
Texas San Antonio
Charlotte
Tulsa


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 83.4% 50.2% 33.2% 10   0.0 0.5 1.3 3.3 4.4 5.5 9.5 19.7 24.2 14.9 0.2 16.6 66.7%
North Texas 21.8% 21.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.6 12.1 1.7 0.0 78.2 0.6%
UAB 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 4.8 4.2 1.1 0.1 89.3 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.3 3.0 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 93.9 0.0%
Temple 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 96.5 0.0%
Wichita St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 98.4 0.0%
Tulane 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.1 97.1 0.0%
East Carolina 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 98.3 0.0%
South Florida 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 99.3 0.0%
Rice 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.6 0.0%
Charlotte 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Tulsa 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 83.4% 9.1% 78.8% 34.8% 8.6% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
North Texas 21.8% 0.5% 21.6% 5.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 10.7% 0.0% 10.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 6.1% 0.0% 6.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 3.6% 0.0% 3.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 1.6% 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 1.8% 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 66.3 33.6 0.1
1st Round 99.9% 1.3 0.1 71.1 28.8 0.0
2nd Round 41.0% 0.4 59.0 38.8 2.2
Sweet Sixteen 10.2% 0.1 89.8 10.2 0.1
Elite Eight 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9 0.0
Final Four 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.8
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0