American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
70 Tulsa 25.8%   11   14 - 3 4 - 2 +8.1      +8.0 36 +0.1 165 68.7 189 +9.5 62 +6.5 3
74 South Florida 23.1%   11 - 7 4 - 2 +7.7      +4.2 79 +3.5 80 78.1 18 +6.4 84 +7.2 2
92 Memphis 13.9%   9 - 9 4 - 2 +5.8      -0.6 182 +6.4 38 72.6 83 +4.5 99 +5.7 4
95 Florida Atlantic 14.3%   12 - 6 6 - 1 +5.5      +2.4 113 +3.1 90 74.6 47 +6.1 88 +11.0 1
103 Wichita St. 9.1%   11 - 8 4 - 3 +4.6      +2.9 103 +1.8 114 64.6 291 +2.3 126 +3.7 5
117 UAB 4.6%   11 - 8 3 - 4 +2.8      +1.5 125 +1.3 126 72.9 76 +2.2 128 +1.7 9
127 North Texas 4.2%   10 - 7 3 - 3 +2.1      -3.9 280 +6.0 44 63.0 328 +2.9 121 +3.6 6
140 Temple 3.5%   11 - 7 4 - 2 +1.2      +1.5 128 -0.2 174 66.3 256 +1.6 136 +3.5 7
172 Tulane 0.9%   11 - 7 3 - 3 -1.0      -0.4 176 -0.6 188 66.8 238 +0.9 151 -0.3 10
173 Charlotte 1.3%   9 - 9 4 - 2 -1.1      +1.8 122 -2.9 264 61.7 349 -1.0 183 +2.8 8
239 Rice 0.1%   6 - 11 2 - 4 -4.4      -1.4 206 -3.0 270 64.5 296 -5.1 239 -3.9 11
267 East Carolina 0.1%   4 - 14 0 - 6 -5.9      -5.7 317 -0.2 176 70.9 127 -9.8 324 -15.2 12
345 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   2 - 15 0 - 7 -11.9      -7.0 338 -4.9 316 72.9 77 -12.4 337 -16.6 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 21 92 Memphis 66 70 Tulsa 83   
Wed, Jan 21 239 Rice 65 140 Temple 69   
Wed, Jan 21 95 Florida Atlantic 79 172 Tulane 74   
Wed, Jan 21 267 East Carolina 60 103 Wichita St. 77   
Wed, Jan 21 127 North Texas 81 345 Texas San Antonio 62   
Thu, Jan 22 74 South Florida 82 117 UAB 69   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 23 173 Charlotte 73 172 Tulane 70 61%   
Fri, Jan 23 267 East Carolina 59 127 North Texas 70 85%   
Sat, Jan 24 92 Memphis 70 103 Wichita St. 72 57%   
Sat, Jan 24 239 Rice 71 70 Tulsa 81 81%   
Sat, Jan 24 140 Temple 80 345 Texas San Antonio 69 83%   
Sun, Jan 25 95 Florida Atlantic 79 74 South Florida 85 69%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Tulsa 2.5 37.0 25.2 15.0 9.3 6.1 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
South Florida 3.0 29.2 20.9 16.2 12.4 8.5 5.6 3.7 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Memphis 4.1 14.5 17.0 16.2 13.9 11.7 9.3 7.1 5.2 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.0
Florida Atlantic 2.5 39.7 22.2 15.5 9.9 6.0 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Wichita St. 5.0 6.7 10.4 12.2 14.0 14.8 13.9 11.9 8.4 5.3 2.0 0.4 0.0
UAB 6.6 1.0 3.3 6.3 9.4 11.9 13.6 15.2 15.8 13.5 7.5 2.4 0.2 0.0
North Texas 5.9 3.1 6.3 9.1 11.7 13.6 13.5 13.1 11.7 10.0 5.3 2.2 0.3
Temple 5.4 5.2 8.7 11.2 13.6 13.8 13.8 12.2 9.8 7.2 3.5 1.1 0.1
Tulane 9.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.1 5.1 7.3 10.4 17.0 29.0 21.2 2.8 0.0
Charlotte 7.0 1.1 2.6 4.5 7.5 10.1 13.2 15.6 17.3 16.2 8.8 2.8 0.3 0.0
Rice 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 6.2 11.4 25.2 36.1 13.4 0.6
East Carolina 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.2 7.1 21.0 57.0 11.4
Texas San Antonio 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3 20.3 77.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Tulsa 13 - 5 23 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.2 12.7 19.5 24.2 20.7 10.8 3.0
South Florida 12 - 6 19 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.6 9.6 16.2 21.7 21.4 15.4 7.5 1.6
Memphis 11 - 7 17 - 14 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.5 9.3 15.5 20.2 19.7 15.8 8.7 3.5 0.6
Florida Atlantic 13 - 5 19 - 10 0.1 0.4 2.0 6.1 12.6 20.4 23.3 19.2 11.2 4.1 0.7
Wichita St. 11 - 7 18 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 8.3 14.9 21.9 21.5 16.8 9.1 3.1 0.4
UAB 9 - 9 17 - 13 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.5 9.4 16.9 22.5 21.4 15.3 7.5 2.2 0.3
North Texas 10 - 8 17 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 6.7 13.2 18.2 20.9 18.2 11.8 5.8 1.5 0.2
Temple 10 - 8 17 - 13 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.4 10.0 16.9 21.0 19.7 14.7 8.1 2.9 0.6 0.1
Tulane 7 - 11 15 - 15 1.0 5.0 12.8 18.9 21.5 17.7 12.3 6.7 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
Charlotte 9 - 9 14 - 16 0.1 1.0 4.2 11.4 19.6 23.8 20.1 12.2 5.5 1.7 0.5 0.1
Rice 6 - 12 10 - 19 0.6 4.6 12.8 20.8 22.4 18.6 11.2 5.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 4 - 14 8 - 22 1.1 5.6 14.3 22.8 23.0 17.4 9.8 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 2 - 16 4 - 24 20.6 33.0 26.1 13.2 5.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tulsa 37.0% 20.6 11.3 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
South Florida 29.2% 15.8 8.8 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
Memphis 14.5% 6.2 5.1 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
Florida Atlantic 39.7% 23.3 11.4 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
Wichita St. 6.7% 2.2 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
UAB 1.0% 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Texas 3.1% 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Temple 5.2% 1.7 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tulane 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 1.1% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
East Carolina
Texas San Antonio


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tulsa 25.8% 25.3% 0.5% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 11.9 12.2 0.6 0.0 74.3 0.7%
South Florida 23.1% 22.8% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 11.6 10.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 76.9 0.5%
Memphis 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 8.0 2.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 86.1 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 3.1 9.2 1.8 0.1 0.0 85.7 0.0%
Wichita St. 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 5.9 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 90.9 0.0%
UAB 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 95.4 0.0%
North Texas 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.2 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 95.8 0.0%
Temple 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 96.5 0.0%
Tulane 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.1 0.0%
Charlotte 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 98.7 0.0%
Rice 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 0.1 99.5 0.5
2nd Round 17.0% 0.2 83.0 17.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.3 2.8
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tulsa 25.8% 0.4% 25.5% 5.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 23.1% 0.3% 22.9% 4.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 13.9% 0.1% 13.9% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 14.3% 0.0% 14.3% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 9.1% 0.0% 9.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 4.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 4.2% 0.0% 4.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%