American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
54 South Florida 45.2%   11   20 - 8 13 - 3 +10.4      +5.2 69 +5.2 45 76.8 18 +8.9 66 +10.8 1
65 Tulsa 30.9%   21 - 6 11 - 5 +8.9      +8.3 39 +0.6 149 69.2 160 +8.6 67 +6.9 3
91 Wichita St. 14.5%   19 - 10 12 - 5 +6.1      +2.1 113 +4.0 72 66.5 237 +5.6 94 +7.5 2
119 Memphis 2.9%   12 - 17 7 - 9 +2.9      -1.5 205 +4.4 61 73.9 46 +1.2 139 -0.2 9
123 UAB 4.8%   17 - 11 9 - 7 +2.8      -0.2 169 +3.0 88 72.1 87 +3.0 118 +3.7 4
126 Florida Atlantic 2.5%   15 - 13 9 - 8 +2.6      +0.4 150 +2.1 118 72.7 67 +2.0 127 +1.4 7
134 North Texas 2.6%   15 - 13 8 - 9 +1.6      -3.1 253 +4.7 51 63.3 321 +1.5 134 +0.4 8
166 Temple 0.7%   14 - 14 7 - 9 -0.5      +1.4 130 -1.9 227 63.9 305 -1.1 176 -2.3 11
169 Charlotte 1.0%   14 - 14 9 - 7 -0.6      +2.4 108 -3.0 265 61.6 344 -0.1 158 +1.6 6
184 Tulane 0.5%   16 - 12 8 - 8 -1.7      -1.4 201 -0.3 182 67.2 216 +2.0 128 +2.1 5
222 Rice 0.2%   10 - 17 6 - 10 -3.6      -0.2 168 -3.5 277 64.7 278 -3.6 230 -2.0 10
233 East Carolina 0.1%   10 - 18 6 - 10 -4.0      -3.4 257 -0.7 196 70.6 122 -5.4 250 -3.6 12
334 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   3 - 24 1 - 16 -11.8      -5.9 320 -5.9 327 71.2 109 -12.0 340 -15.3 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Mar 1 134 North Texas 62 123 UAB 58   
Sun, Mar 1 222 Rice 80 166 Temple 74   
Sun, Mar 1 169 Charlotte 76 126 Florida Atlantic 77   
Sun, Mar 1 54 South Florida 90 184 Tulane 62   
Sun, Mar 1 334 Texas San Antonio 67 91 Wichita St. 84   
Sun, Mar 1 233 East Carolina 84 119 Memphis 68   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Mar 4 169 Charlotte 72 123 UAB 73 52%   
Wed, Mar 4 134 North Texas 71 222 Rice 63 78%   
Thu, Mar 5 119 Memphis 76 54 South Florida 81 67%   
Thu, Mar 5 166 Temple 74 184 Tulane 70 66%   
Thu, Mar 5 233 East Carolina 73 65 Tulsa 83 82%   
Sat, Mar 7 126 Florida Atlantic 70 91 Wichita St. 77 74%   
Sun, Mar 8 119 Memphis 74 184 Tulane 72 56%   
Sun, Mar 8 166 Temple 71 65 Tulsa 83 87%   
Sun, Mar 8 169 Charlotte 70 54 South Florida 84 90%   
Sun, Mar 8 233 East Carolina 69 123 UAB 79 82%   
Sun, Mar 8 222 Rice 81 334 Texas San Antonio 69 85%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
South Florida 1.0 100.0
Wichita St. 2.2 2.6 77.8 19.7
Tulsa 2.2 2.4 76.9 20.6
UAB 4.2 1.0 83.9 7.4 5.0 2.4 0.2
Charlotte 5.1 0.1 46.5 13.6 26.8 11.9 1.1
North Texas 5.3 30.0 35.9 16.0 10.1 6.6 1.5 0.1
Florida Atlantic 5.8 13.5 22.2 35.8 25.7 2.8
Tulane 6.4 0.1 17.3 18.8 18.4 14.7 18.4 11.0 1.2
Memphis 8.6 2.5 8.3 7.3 20.1 38.3 19.2 4.3 0.1
Temple 8.9 1.0 3.3 3.2 19.1 47.0 21.9 4.4 0.1
Rice 10.2 7.1 16.3 29.5 42.1 4.9
East Carolina 11.4 0.7 4.3 10.5 21.6 63.0
Texas San Antonio 13.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
South Florida 15 - 3 22 - 8 3.4 36.6 60.0
Wichita St. 13 - 5 20 - 10 27.0 73.0
Tulsa 13 - 5 23 - 6 2.2 25.2 72.6
UAB 10 - 8 18 - 12 9.0 47.7 43.3
Charlotte 10 - 8 15 - 15 47.6 47.7 4.7
North Texas 10 - 9 17 - 13 6.5 36.2 57.3
Florida Atlantic 9 - 9 15 - 14 73.0 27.0
Tulane 9 - 10 17 - 14 27.7 43.2 24.2 5.0
Memphis 8 - 10 13 - 18 29.4 50.7 19.8
Temple 8 - 10 15 - 15 31.1 60.8 8.1
Rice 7 - 11 11 - 18 11.5 69.9 18.6
East Carolina 6 - 12 10 - 20 68.1 28.6 3.3
Texas San Antonio 1 - 17 3 - 25 85.7 14.3

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Florida 100.0% 96.9 1.3 1.9
Wichita St. 2.6% 0.7 1.9
Tulsa 2.4% 0.6 1.9
UAB
Charlotte
North Texas
Florida Atlantic
Tulane
Memphis
Temple
Rice
East Carolina
Texas San Antonio


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Florida 45.2% 41.0% 4.1% 11   0.1 0.5 4.8 34.8 5.0 0.0 54.8 7.0%
Tulsa 30.9% 29.1% 1.8% 0.4 20.0 10.4 0.1 69.1 2.5%
Wichita St. 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 5.1 8.7 0.6 85.5 0.0%
Memphis 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.1 97.1 0.0%
UAB 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.2 3.3 1.3 0.0 95.2 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 97.5 0.0%
North Texas 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 97.4 0.0%
Temple 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 99.3 0.0%
Charlotte 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 99.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.1 5.8 0.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 97.1 2.7 0.0
2nd Round 21.8% 0.2 78.2 21.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Florida 45.2% 3.9% 43.0% 12.3% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 30.9% 1.7% 29.9% 6.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 14.5% 0.0% 14.5% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 2.9% 0.5% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%