American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
50 Memphis 95.9%   9   26 - 5 16 - 2 26 - 5 16 - 2 +11.0      +4.4 71 +6.7 34 75.0 32 +16.6 19 +12.5 1
79 North Texas 24.8%   21 - 7 14 - 4 21 - 7 14 - 4 +7.3      +1.8 124 +5.5 48 55.5 362 +8.5 69 +8.5 2
107 Florida Atlantic 6.7%   16 - 14 10 - 8 16 - 14 10 - 8 +3.8      +4.1 76 -0.3 183 72.1 69 +2.7 128 +2.8 5
108 UAB 9.4%   19 - 11 13 - 5 19 - 11 13 - 5 +3.8      +7.3 36 -3.5 275 71.2 91 +2.7 127 +7.7 3
126 Wichita St. 2.3%   17 - 13 8 - 10 18 - 13 8 - 10 +2.0      0.0 175 +2.1 110 70.1 120 +2.8 125 -0.6 8
141 Tulane 3.3%   16 - 13 12 - 6 16 - 13 12 - 6 +1.0      +0.9 148 +0.1 172 67.0 211 +0.2 161 +4.6 4
155 Temple 1.9%   16 - 14 9 - 9 17 - 14 9 - 9 +0.3      +2.9 98 -2.6 251 70.9 103 +1.1 149 +1.0 7
163 East Carolina 1.4%   16 - 13 10 - 8 17 - 13 10 - 8 -0.2      +0.7 154 -0.9 196 66.1 229 +0.5 156 +1.9 6
184 Texas San Antonio 0.9%   10 - 18 6 - 12 10 - 19 6 - 12 -1.3      +0.7 153 -2.1 233 73.7 51 -3.3 221 -3.2 11
189 South Florida 0.4%   12 - 18 6 - 12 12 - 19 6 - 12 -1.5      -2.6 241 +1.0 141 70.0 121 -2.8 211 -2.2 9
191 Rice 0.2%   13 - 17 4 - 14 14 - 17 4 - 14 -1.6      +0.1 169 -1.7 224 64.6 279 -3.2 220 -6.6 12
243 Charlotte 0.1%   9 - 21 3 - 15 9 - 22 3 - 15 -4.5      -0.6 197 -3.9 292 63.4 308 -5.9 265 -8.2 13
250 Tulsa 0.1%   10 - 19 6 - 12 10 - 20 6 - 12 -4.8      -3.3 257 -1.5 220 65.7 243 -5.8 264 -3.1 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 1.0 100.0
North Texas 2.0 100.0
Florida Atlantic 5.0 100.0
UAB 3.0 100.0
Wichita St. 8.0 100.0
Tulane 4.0 100.0
Temple 7.0 100.0
East Carolina 5.0 100.0
Texas San Antonio 9.0 100.0
South Florida 9.0 100.0
Rice 12.0 100.0
Charlotte 13.0 100.0
Tulsa 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 16 - 2 100.0
North Texas 14 - 4 100.0
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 100.0
UAB 13 - 5 100.0
Wichita St. 8 - 10 100.0
Tulane 12 - 6 100.0
Temple 9 - 9 100.0
East Carolina 10 - 8 100.0
Texas San Antonio 6 - 12 100.0
South Florida 6 - 12 100.0
Rice 4 - 14 100.0
Charlotte 3 - 15 100.0
Tulsa 6 - 12 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 100.0% 100.0
North Texas
Florida Atlantic
UAB
Wichita St.
Tulane
Temple
East Carolina
Texas San Antonio
South Florida
Rice
Charlotte
Tulsa


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 95.9% 48.7% 47.2% 9   0.1 0.3 3.5 24.2 46.4 19.5 2.0 4.1 91.9%
North Texas 24.8% 24.7% 0.1% 2.9 21.4 0.4 75.2 0.1%
Florida Atlantic 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 3.0 3.1 0.6 93.3 0.0%
UAB 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0 4.0 4.5 1.0 90.6 0.0%
Wichita St. 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.7 1.2 0.5 97.7 0.0%
Tulane 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 2.3 0.3 96.7 0.0%
Temple 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2 0.9 0.8 98.1 0.0%
East Carolina 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.0 98.6 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.1 0.0%
South Florida 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Charlotte 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Tulsa 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 95.9% 1.7% 94.9% 35.2% 4.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 24.8% 0.1% 24.7% 5.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 6.7% 0.0% 6.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 9.4% 0.0% 9.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 2.3% 0.0% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 3.3% 0.0% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 52.7 47.3 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.5 0.1 54.3 45.6 0.0
2nd Round 40.2% 0.4 59.9 37.6 2.5
Sweet Sixteen 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.1 0.1
Elite Eight 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0