American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
62 South Florida 33.0%   11   16 - 8 9 - 3 +8.7      +5.1 69 +3.6 75 77.2 18 +7.6 76 +9.1 1
70 Tulsa 26.3%   18 - 5 8 - 4 +7.9      +7.8 45 +0.2 162 69.0 173 +8.7 64 +6.9 2
86 Memphis 15.2%   12 - 11 7 - 4 +6.4      -0.8 182 +7.1 30 74.1 50 +4.2 101 +4.5 5
96 Wichita St. 10.7%   14 - 10 7 - 5 +5.3      +1.5 128 +3.8 68 66.2 245 +3.3 109 +4.7 3
114 Florida Atlantic 4.6%   12 - 11 6 - 6 +3.2      +1.4 133 +1.7 122 74.1 49 +2.6 120 +1.9 8
118 UAB 5.7%   15 - 9 7 - 5 +2.9      +1.0 139 +1.9 117 72.8 70 +3.6 104 +4.6 4
144 North Texas 1.8%   11 - 11 4 - 7 +1.1      -4.5 293 +5.6 46 63.3 322 -0.3 166 -3.0 11
148 Temple 2.6%   14 - 9 7 - 4 +0.7      +2.0 117 -1.3 219 64.7 288 +1.6 137 +2.3 7
168 Charlotte 1.7%   12 - 11 7 - 4 -0.5      +2.2 113 -2.8 262 61.6 346 +0.7 150 +4.1 6
174 Tulane 0.7%   13 - 10 5 - 6 -0.9      -0.6 174 -0.4 179 67.1 225 +0.8 146 -0.1 9
220 Rice 0.2%   9 - 14 5 - 7 -3.1      +0.1 157 -3.2 278 64.5 292 -3.2 218 -0.7 10
252 East Carolina 0.1%   7 - 16 3 - 8 -5.1      -4.1 280 -1.0 206 70.3 134 -7.4 286 -6.5 12
350 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   2 - 20 0 - 12 -12.7      -6.5 333 -6.1 333 71.7 96 -13.5 347 -17.0 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Feb 8 62 South Florida 80 70 Tulsa 74   
Sun, Feb 8 220 Rice 65 118 UAB 71   
Sun, Feb 8 174 Tulane 61 96 Wichita St. 75   
Sun, Feb 8 168 Charlotte 54 86 Memphis 77   
Wed, Feb 11 62 South Florida 66 96 Wichita St. 58   
Wed, Feb 11 70 Tulsa 63 118 UAB 68   
Wed, Feb 11 148 Temple 66 174 Tulane 77   
Wed, Feb 11 114 Florida Atlantic 73 220 Rice 81   
Wed, Feb 11 252 East Carolina 88 350 Texas San Antonio 72   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 12 86 Memphis 66 144 North Texas 64 59%   
Sat, Feb 14 70 Tulsa 75 96 Wichita St. 76 51%   
Sat, Feb 14 86 Memphis 69 35 Utah St. 80 85%   
Sat, Feb 14 252 East Carolina 70 220 Rice 75 69%   
Sun, Feb 15 144 North Texas 65 148 Temple 67 60%   
Sun, Feb 15 114 Florida Atlantic 81 62 South Florida 84 60%   
Sun, Feb 15 174 Tulane 71 118 UAB 78 74%   
Sun, Feb 15 168 Charlotte 81 350 Texas San Antonio 66 91%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
South Florida 1.4 72.4 17.0 6.9 2.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1
Tulsa 1.9 42.0 40.2 10.5 4.6 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Memphis 3.7 13.9 15.8 24.0 16.0 12.6 8.3 5.2 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.0
Wichita St. 4.0 6.0 15.1 23.1 20.7 15.2 9.8 6.2 3.1 0.7 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 6.3 0.4 1.7 6.7 10.9 14.2 16.2 18.5 19.1 8.7 2.9 0.7 0.0
UAB 4.8 2.2 8.1 18.8 19.7 16.8 13.1 11.4 6.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
North Texas 9.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 3.3 4.4 8.4 12.8 22.6 22.8 19.7 3.6
Temple 5.3 2.3 7.5 13.2 16.3 16.2 15.0 13.5 9.1 4.7 1.8 0.4
Charlotte 5.2 2.3 6.0 12.3 17.1 18.6 16.6 14.4 9.2 2.9 0.5 0.1
Tulane 9.4 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.8 10.5 22.3 26.8 25.3 2.9
Rice 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.0 6.7 13.3 27.7 27.5 17.0 2.9
East Carolina 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.4 6.6 17.8 72.2 0.1
Texas San Antonio 13.0 0.7 99.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
South Florida 13 - 5 20 - 10 0.1 0.8 4.7 16.8 31.7 32.1 13.9
Tulsa 13 - 5 23 - 6 0.0 0.1 1.6 9.5 26.4 40.0 22.3
Memphis 11 - 7 16 - 15 0.3 1.9 7.9 19.2 27.2 26.2 14.1 3.3
Wichita St. 11 - 7 18 - 12 0.1 1.4 7.8 23.0 34.0 25.1 8.5
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 16 - 13 0.4 3.7 14.9 30.2 30.6 16.8 3.4
UAB 11 - 7 19 - 11 0.4 4.2 14.8 28.8 31.1 16.9 3.8
North Texas 8 - 10 15 - 14 0.8 5.9 15.9 26.0 26.7 17.3 6.5 1.0
Temple 10 - 8 17 - 13 1.1 7.6 19.9 30.0 25.3 12.5 3.4 0.3
Charlotte 10 - 8 15 - 15 0.3 5.5 20.4 33.4 26.7 11.2 2.3 0.2
Tulane 7 - 11 15 - 15 5.5 20.9 30.7 24.9 12.6 4.7 0.8 0.0
Rice 8 - 10 12 - 17 1.4 13.9 32.8 31.9 15.8 3.8 0.5
East Carolina 5 - 13 9 - 21 8.4 27.2 32.4 21.1 8.5 2.2 0.3 0.0
Texas San Antonio 1 - 17 3 - 25 45.8 38.7 13.0 2.3 0.3 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Florida 72.4% 45.6 20.2 5.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tulsa 42.0% 15.6 19.8 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Memphis 13.9% 4.4 5.3 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wichita St. 6.0% 0.8 2.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
UAB 2.2% 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Texas
Temple 2.3% 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 2.3% 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tulane
Rice
East Carolina
Texas San Antonio


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Florida 33.0% 30.9% 2.1% 11   0.1 0.5 2.6 24.8 5.0 67.1 3.0%
Tulsa 26.3% 25.7% 0.5% 0.0 0.2 15.1 10.7 0.2 73.8 0.7%
Memphis 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0 2.9 9.0 2.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 84.8 0.0%
Wichita St. 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0 3.0 7.1 0.6 0.0 89.3 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.2 2.0 1.9 0.3 0.2 95.4 0.0%
UAB 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 3.8 1.2 0.0 94.3 0.0%
North Texas 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 98.2 0.0%
Temple 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 97.4 0.0%
Charlotte 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 98.3 0.0%
Tulane 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.3 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.4 2.6
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 98.8 1.2
2nd Round 16.6% 0.2 83.4 16.5 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Florida 33.0% 1.9% 31.8% 7.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 26.3% 0.5% 26.0% 4.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 15.2% 0.0% 15.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 10.7% 0.0% 10.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 4.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 5.7% 0.0% 5.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%