American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
75 Memphis 25.3%   11   3 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 13 12 - 6 +7.6      +2.8 102 +4.8 51 73.8 80 +2.2 149 0.0 1
79 South Florida 22.8%   5 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 6 +7.3      +4.0 84 +3.3 78 78.2 21 +6.3 93 0.0 1
91 Tulsa 16.3%   5 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +5.6      +4.7 71 +0.9 140 65.7 281 +11.9 52 0.0 1
97 Wichita St. 13.2%   4 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +5.0      +2.9 99 +2.2 106 66.0 275 -0.1 176 0.0 1
112 UAB 8.9%   6 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +3.7      +1.9 120 +1.9 118 72.9 101 +4.8 106 0.0 1
126 Florida Atlantic 6.7%   4 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 +2.7      +3.2 92 -0.6 185 67.9 223 +3.7 121 0.0 1
145 North Texas 3.5%   6 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +0.8      -1.7 212 +2.5 94 62.2 349 +2.5 142 0.0 1
157 Temple 2.6%   4 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 9 -0.1      +4.1 80 -4.1 315 69.0 196 -0.9 186 0.0 1
172 Tulane 1.6%   6 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 15 7 - 11 -1.1      +2.6 110 -3.7 295 66.9 257 +2.9 137 0.0 1
186 Charlotte 1.2%   3 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 17 8 - 10 -1.9      +0.6 146 -2.5 252 61.0 355 -5.6 248 0.0 1
217 Rice 0.6%   3 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -3.4      -1.6 209 -1.8 228 65.2 293 -6.6 270 0.0 1
245 East Carolina 0.4%   2 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 12 -4.7      -4.0 277 -0.7 188 72.3 112 -8.0 285 0.0 1
269 Texas San Antonio 0.2%   2 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 13 -6.0      -4.5 294 -1.5 218 73.1 97 -7.5 279 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 284 Grambling St. 63 172 Tulane 65   
Tue, Dec 2 282 Houston Christian 75 145 North Texas 77   
Tue, Dec 2 245 East Carolina 68 341 Maryland Eastern Shore 56   
Tue, Dec 2 186 Charlotte 74 323 N.C. A&T 57   
Wed, Dec 3 217 Rice 77 232 Texas St. 72   
Wed, Dec 3 75 Memphis 86 216 New Orleans 70   
Thu, Dec 4 79 South Florida 74 51 Utah St. 61   
Fri, Dec 5 128 Drake 69 112 UAB 74   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 87 Northern Iowa 67 97 Wichita St. 63 65%   
Sat, Dec 6 28 Baylor 81 75 Memphis 78 62%   
Sat, Dec 6 184 Saint Joseph's 77 157 Temple 78 56%   
Sat, Dec 6 54 Akron 87 172 Tulane 80 77%   
Sat, Dec 6 245 East Carolina 76 293 UNC Greensboro 70 71%   
Sat, Dec 6 242 Missouri St. 61 91 Tulsa 74 89%   
Sun, Dec 7 177 Florida Gulf Coast 78 126 Florida Atlantic 79 54%   
Sun, Dec 7 145 North Texas 63 48 TCU 70 75%   
Sun, Dec 7 186 Charlotte 66 51 Utah St. 76 81%   
Sun, Dec 7 11 Alabama 99 269 Texas San Antonio 71 99%   
Wed, Dec 10 180 College of Charleston 72 79 South Florida 84 86%   
Wed, Dec 10 358 Arkansas Pine Bluff 65 91 Tulsa 87 97%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 3.1 32.4 19.9 14.0 10.1 7.7 5.5 3.8 3.0 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.0
South Florida 3.4 26.7 20.0 14.8 11.5 8.7 6.3 4.4 3.1 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0
Tulsa 3.9 21.8 17.6 13.9 11.3 9.4 7.4 6.0 4.6 3.5 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.3
Wichita St. 4.4 16.1 15.5 13.9 12.4 10.4 9.2 7.1 5.6 3.9 2.7 1.9 0.9 0.3
UAB 5.1 10.8 12.2 12.6 12.5 11.1 10.1 8.9 7.3 5.4 4.1 2.8 1.7 0.6
Florida Atlantic 5.8 7.8 9.8 10.2 11.0 10.9 10.8 9.9 8.7 7.0 5.6 4.0 2.9 1.3
North Texas 6.8 3.8 5.7 8.1 9.1 9.6 10.9 11.2 10.5 9.4 8.4 6.3 4.7 2.4
Temple 6.6 3.8 6.7 8.2 9.9 10.4 10.4 10.9 9.7 9.1 7.4 6.4 4.5 2.6
Tulane 8.6 1.4 2.2 3.4 4.9 6.1 7.5 8.4 10.3 11.8 12.3 12.5 11.6 7.7
Charlotte 8.2 1.2 2.7 4.2 5.7 7.0 8.5 9.9 10.9 12.0 11.4 10.6 9.4 6.3
Rice 9.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 3.6 4.6 6.7 8.2 10.0 11.5 12.9 13.7 13.4 10.9
East Carolina 10.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.1 4.6 5.9 8.2 10.1 12.6 14.5 17.9 18.6
Texas San Antonio 10.5 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.2 3.3 4.5 6.5 8.5 11.2 14.5 19.3 26.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 3.6 5.9 9.3 12.4 14.1 15.0 14.4 11.2 6.8 3.2 0.6
South Florida 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.4 7.1 10.4 13.4 15.5 14.8 13.4 9.2 5.0 2.1 0.6
Tulsa 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.9 6.0 9.4 11.4 13.4 14.0 13.3 10.4 7.9 4.3 1.8 0.4
Wichita St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 3.0 5.0 7.5 10.9 13.1 14.4 14.1 12.0 8.7 5.8 2.4 0.8 0.2
UAB 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.5 6.9 9.6 12.7 14.0 14.3 12.7 9.8 6.5 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.1
Florida Atlantic 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.6 6.2 8.8 11.6 13.4 14.3 12.8 10.4 7.5 4.8 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
North Texas 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.0 8.5 12.3 13.8 13.9 13.1 10.9 7.4 4.5 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1
Temple 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.0 5.7 8.3 11.3 13.4 14.2 12.8 11.0 8.1 5.4 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tulane 7 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.8 5.3 8.4 11.3 13.9 14.2 13.0 10.7 8.1 5.5 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.6 7.0 10.3 13.1 14.2 14.2 12.0 9.7 6.5 3.8 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rice 7 - 11 0.3 1.2 3.3 6.5 10.4 12.8 14.7 14.8 12.1 9.9 6.2 4.3 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 6 - 12 0.6 2.5 6.1 10.1 13.2 15.1 15.0 12.5 9.7 6.9 4.2 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 1.4 4.4 8.8 12.7 14.9 15.3 13.4 11.0 7.5 5.0 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Memphis 32.4% 22.0 7.8 2.2 0.4 0.0
South Florida 26.7% 17.2 7.1 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 21.8% 13.8 5.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Wichita St. 16.1% 9.6 4.7 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
UAB 10.8% 6.1 3.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida Atlantic 7.8% 4.3 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Texas 3.8% 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Temple 3.8% 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulane 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 1.2% 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rice 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Memphis 25.3% 24.0% 1.3% 11   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.8 9.8 9.1 2.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 74.8 1.7%
South Florida 22.8% 21.7% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 9.4 9.6 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 77.2 1.5%
Tulsa 16.3% 15.4% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 5.9 7.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 83.7 1.1%
Wichita St. 13.2% 13.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.8 6.4 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 86.8 0.2%
UAB 8.9% 8.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 91.1 0.1%
Florida Atlantic 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 93.3 0.0%
North Texas 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 96.5 0.0%
Temple 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 97.4 0.0%
Tulane 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 98.4 0.0%
Charlotte 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 98.8 0.0%
Rice 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%
East Carolina 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 25.3% 0.9% 24.7% 6.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 22.8% 0.8% 22.5% 5.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 16.3% 0.7% 16.0% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 13.2% 0.1% 13.2% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 8.9% 0.0% 8.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 6.7% 0.1% 6.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 97.4 2.3 0.0
2nd Round 21.0% 0.2 79.0 20.8 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5 0.0
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0