Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#184
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#221
Pace73.7#51
Improvement+3.8#37

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#153
First Shot+0.8#142
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#190
Layup/Dunks-5.4#342
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#115
Freethrows+1.6#86
Improvement+1.3#124

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#233
First Shot-0.4#193
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#308
Layups/Dunks-0.8#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#139
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#173
Freethrows-0.9#251
Improvement+2.5#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 2.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 2.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 1.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 20 - 61 - 8
Quad 34 - 55 - 13
Quad 46 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 96   @ Bradley L 72-85 19%     0 - 1 -5.1 -2.7 -1.5
  Nov 16, 2024 253   Arkansas Little Rock L 64-81 73%     0 - 2 -24.7 -11.4 -12.7
  Nov 25, 2024 101   @ Troy L 72-86 21%     0 - 3 -6.9 +3.4 -10.1
  Nov 27, 2024 192   Merrimack W 76-74 51%     1 - 3 +0.4 +0.5 -0.3
  Nov 30, 2024 285   Houston Christian W 78-71 79%     2 - 3 -2.9 +6.5 -8.9
  Dec 03, 2024 26   @ St. Mary's L 74-82 OT 5%     2 - 4 +9.6 +6.9 +3.2
  Dec 07, 2024 38   @ Arkansas L 60-75 6%     2 - 5 +0.8 -0.5 +0.6
  Dec 13, 2024 264   North Dakota W 80-76 75%     3 - 5 -4.4 -4.0 -0.6
  Dec 15, 2024 264   @ North Dakota W 95-85 56%     4 - 5 +7.1 +11.1 -4.6
  Dec 29, 2024 323   @ Army L 75-78 71%     4 - 6 -10.0 -8.3 -1.4
  Jan 04, 2025 141   @ Tulane L 63-92 31%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -25.2 -11.9 -11.7
  Jan 07, 2025 250   Tulsa L 77-82 73%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -12.6 +3.0 -15.7
  Jan 11, 2025 126   Wichita St. W 88-75 48%     5 - 8 1 - 2 +12.3 +16.9 -4.5
  Jan 14, 2025 191   @ Rice W 90-84 40%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +7.2 +15.7 -8.6
  Jan 18, 2025 79   North Texas L 57-72 29%     6 - 9 2 - 3 -10.5 -1.4 -11.7
  Jan 21, 2025 108   @ UAB L 78-81 23%     6 - 10 2 - 4 +3.5 +6.1 -2.6
  Jan 25, 2025 155   Temple W 88-79 54%     7 - 10 3 - 4 +6.5 +6.7 -0.7
  Jan 29, 2025 107   @ Florida Atlantic L 74-94 23%     7 - 11 3 - 5 -13.4 +7.3 -22.1
  Feb 01, 2025 79   @ North Texas W 54-50 14%     8 - 11 4 - 5 +14.0 -2.3 +17.1
  Feb 05, 2025 141   Tulane L 60-61 51%     8 - 12 4 - 6 -2.7 -9.2 +6.4
  Feb 08, 2025 163   East Carolina L 79-80 56%     8 - 13 4 - 7 -3.9 +7.9 -11.8
  Feb 12, 2025 126   @ Wichita St. L 64-69 28%     8 - 14 4 - 8 -0.2 -7.0 +6.9
  Feb 15, 2025 250   @ Tulsa L 76-80 53%     8 - 15 4 - 9 -6.1 +0.2 -6.1
  Feb 19, 2025 189   South Florida L 73-78 61%     8 - 16 4 - 10 -9.3 -5.4 -3.5
  Feb 23, 2025 163   @ East Carolina L 89-96 OT 35%     8 - 17 4 - 11 -4.4 +8.8 -12.6
  Mar 02, 2025 191   Rice W 84-56 62%     9 - 17 5 - 11 +23.6 +11.5 +13.3
  Mar 04, 2025 50   Memphis L 70-75 18%     9 - 18 5 - 12 +3.3 -1.9 +5.5
  Mar 09, 2025 243   @ Charlotte W 83-80 52%     10 - 18 6 - 12 +1.2 +13.1 -11.7
  Mar 13, 2025 163   East Carolina L 76-77 45%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 100.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.9 99.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.4%
Lose Out 55.1%