Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#202
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#180
Pace74.4#44
Improvement+3.3#51

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#137
First Shot+1.3#136
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#184
Layup/Dunks-5.3#342
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#115
Freethrows+1.8#79
Improvement+2.5#54

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#276
First Shot-1.5#226
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#319
Layups/Dunks-1.2#219
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#188
Freethrows-1.1#263
Improvement+0.8#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 15.3
.500 or above 10.8% 18.1% 4.1%
.500 or above in Conference 32.3% 47.5% 18.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 0.7% 4.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Home) - 47.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 20 - 61 - 8
Quad 34 - 46 - 12
Quad 47 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 94   @ Bradley L 72-85 17%     0 - 1 -4.7 -1.5 -2.3
  Nov 16, 2024 227   Arkansas Little Rock L 64-81 65%     0 - 2 -23.0 -9.2 -13.3
  Nov 25, 2024 111   @ Troy L 72-86 23%     0 - 3 -8.2 +1.9 -9.9
  Nov 27, 2024 198   Merrimack W 76-74 49%     1 - 3 +0.3 +0.6 -0.5
  Nov 30, 2024 290   Houston Christian W 78-71 76%     2 - 3 -2.6 +4.9 -7.0
  Dec 03, 2024 31   @ St. Mary's L 74-82 OT 5%     2 - 4 +8.6 +5.5 +3.6
  Dec 07, 2024 43   @ Arkansas L 60-75 7%     2 - 5 -0.9 -2.1 +0.6
  Dec 13, 2024 269   North Dakota W 80-76 74%     3 - 5 -4.6 -5.0 +0.2
  Dec 15, 2024 269   @ North Dakota W 95-85 56%     4 - 5 +6.4 +9.8 -4.1
  Dec 29, 2024 297   @ Army L 75-78 61%     4 - 6 -8.0 -7.2 -0.5
  Jan 04, 2025 141   @ Tulane L 63-92 29%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -25.3 -10.8 -12.9
  Jan 07, 2025 238   Tulsa L 77-82 68%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -12.0 +3.3 -15.4
  Jan 11, 2025 134   Wichita St. W 88-75 46%     5 - 8 1 - 2 +12.1 +15.6 -3.4
  Jan 14, 2025 192   @ Rice W 90-84 38%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +7.0 +16.4 -9.5
  Jan 18, 2025 70   North Texas L 57-72 24%     6 - 9 2 - 3 -9.7 -0.1 -12.3
  Jan 21, 2025 96   @ UAB L 78-81 19%     6 - 10 2 - 4 +4.4 +7.8 -3.6
  Jan 25, 2025 125   Temple W 88-79 44%     7 - 10 3 - 4 +8.6 +8.9 -0.8
  Jan 29, 2025 106   @ Florida Atlantic L 74-94 20%     7 - 11 3 - 5 -13.3 +6.8 -21.5
  Feb 01, 2025 70   @ North Texas W 54-50 13%     8 - 11 4 - 5 +14.3 -1.2 +16.2
  Feb 05, 2025 141   Tulane L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 150   East Carolina L 76-77 50%    
  Feb 12, 2025 134   @ Wichita St. L 77-83 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 238   @ Tulsa L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 177   South Florida W 78-77 57%    
  Feb 23, 2025 150   @ East Carolina L 74-79 30%    
  Mar 02, 2025 192   Rice W 77-75 59%    
  Mar 04, 2025 41   Memphis L 76-87 16%    
  Mar 09, 2025 221   @ Charlotte L 74-75 43%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 1.7 0.4 3.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.0 1.2 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 7.2 3.4 0.3 12.6 6th
7th 1.5 9.4 7.0 0.9 0.0 18.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 9.6 10.2 1.5 0.0 22.5 8th
9th 0.3 5.0 9.0 1.7 0.0 16.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.7 6.1 2.0 0.0 9.8 10th
11th 0.2 2.8 2.2 0.2 5.4 11th
12th 0.7 1.4 0.2 2.3 12th
13th 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
Total 1.3 6.3 14.8 22.3 23.1 17.8 9.9 3.6 0.8 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.8% 4.8% 4.8% 13.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 3.6% 1.1% 1.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 3.6
10-8 9.9% 0.7% 0.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9
9-9 17.8% 0.7% 0.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 17.7
8-10 23.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.4 0.1 0.1 23.0
7-11 22.3% 22.3
6-12 14.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.7
5-13 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%