Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.7 350
Expected Predictive Rating -13.5 347
Pace 71.7 96
Improvement -1.7 261

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #333 D- D C- D- C
Defense D #333 D+ F+ D+ B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 244 49% 354 -4.4 325
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 184 36% 232 -0.5 207
Three Pointers 43% 132 29% 334 -1.8 249
1st FG Attempt 0.88 350 -6.8 350
Second Chance 29.6% 211 0.87 344 0.26 297
Turnovers 17.7% 232
Freethrows 0.26 316 70% 244 0.18 331
Total Offense -6.5 333

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 194 60% 235 -0.7 198
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 342 39% 227 +2.0 39
Three Pointers 47% 33 35% 246 -4.0 331
1st FG Attempt 1.07 266 -2.7 267
Second Chance 37.4% 356 1.10 288 0.41 353
Turnovers 15.5% 263
Freethrows 0.27 71 72% 197 0.20 81
Total Defense -6.1 333

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.1 206 +0.7 301
Shot Type Accuracy -6.5 353 +1.8 248
Possession Length 16.8 125 16.9 122
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 135 0.25 355
Improvement +2.2 #76 -3.8 #340

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 99% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 7.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 31 - 91 - 17
Quad 42 - 103 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 245 SIU Edwardsville L 60 - 77 31% -3  39% 0 - 1 F -25 F -17 F F A- D -7 C- F C+
 Wed, Nov 12 234 @Texas St. L 69 - 80 14% -10  0% 0 - 2 D- -12 D -5 F C B D -7 A F F
 Sat, Nov 15 257 @Denver W 84 - 79 17% +4  83% 1 - 2 C+ +3 B+ +8 A D D D+ -5 D- A+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 260 Abilene Christian L 50 - 61 25% -7  0% 1 - 3 F+ -17 F -19 F D+ C- C+ +1 A+ F B+
 Tue, Nov 25 274 Georgia Southern W 77 - 64 27% -1  26% 2 - 3 B- +7 D- -7 F D A A +13 A+ D C+
 Sun, Nov 30 191 South Alabama L 58 - 82 23% -14  2% 2 - 4 F -29 F -19 F F+ A- F+ -10 D F B
 Sun, Dec 7 17 @Alabama L 55 - 97 1% -27  0% 2 - 5 F -21 F -19 D- D- F B- +3 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 77 @Colorado L 64 - 88 3% -10  7% 2 - 6 D- -14 F -11 D- D+ F C- -2 F+ A- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 47 @USC L 70 - 97 1% -10  17% 2 - 7 D- -13 C- -1 F+ A F F+ -10 F D- D+
 Mon, Dec 22 132 Seattle L 68 - 71 14% -4  13% 2 - 8 C- -4 D -6 B F+ C- C+ +2 A- D+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 114 @Florida Atlantic L 70 - 110 5% -27  3% 2 - 9 0 - 1 F -34 F -11 F D D F -18 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 148 @Temple L 57 - 76 7% -9  0% 2 - 10 0 - 2 F+ -15 F -15 F D F C -1 B+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 168 Charlotte L 58 - 74 19% -9  5% 2 - 11 0 - 3 F -20 F -17 F D- B D+ -4 B+ F+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 174 Tulane L 52 - 85 20% -19  5% 2 - 12 0 - 4 F -37 F -24 F F F F -13 F+ F C
 Wed, Jan 14 220 Rice L 73 - 89 26% -11  0% 2 - 13 0 - 5 F -22 C+ +3 C- B- B- F -27 F F+ D-
 Sun, Jan 18 86 @Memphis L 69 - 95 3% -12  0% 2 - 14 0 - 6 F+ -17 C -0 C+ D+ D F -16 F B+ D-
 Wed, Jan 21 144 @North Texas L 62 - 81 7% -14  0% 2 - 15 0 - 7 F+ -15 D -4 D+ F C+ F -11 F+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 24 148 Temple L 64 - 70 17% -0  47% 2 - 16 0 - 8 D -8 D- -7 D- C+ D C- -2 C C- C+
 Wed, Jan 28 118 UAB L 73 - 83 12% -1  25% 2 - 17 0 - 9 D -10 D+ -3 F B A D- -7 F+ C+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 62 @South Florida L 88 - 109 2% -6  13% 2 - 18 0 - 10 D -9 A+ +17 A+ A C+ F -26 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 144 North Texas L 58 - 81 16% -10  37% 2 - 19 0 - 11 F -25 F -13 D- D- D- F -12 D F C+
 Wed, Feb 11 252 @East Carolina L 72 - 88 16% -12  9% 2 - 20 0 - 12 F -18 D+ -4 F+ D+ B+ F -14 C F F
 Sun, Feb 15 168 @Charlotte L 66 - 81 7%
 Wed, Feb 18 114 Florida Atlantic L 72 - 85 11%
 Sun, Feb 22 70 @Tulsa L 67 - 91 2%
 Wed, Feb 25 252 East Carolina L 72 - 77 33%
 Sun, Mar 1 96 Wichita St. L 65 - 80 8%
 Sun, Mar 8 220 @Rice L 68 - 81 12%
Totals 3 - 25 1 - 17 -13 D -7 D- D C- D -6 D+ F+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D F+ C- D- F+ 36% 20% 43% C D- C- D- D C- D C- D- D C- C- C- D+ 38% 15% 47% D D+ F D+ F+ D+ B- C B-
0.99 49% 36% 29% -6 0 0.88 30% 0.9 .26 18% .26 70% .18 1.17 60% 39% 35% +2 +1 1.07 37% 1.1 .41 16% .27 72% .19
Nov
7		 SIU Edwardsville F F A+ F F 33% 21% 46% C F D+ F F A- C F D D A- C F C 46% 29% 25% D- C- F+ F F C+ F A+ F+
0.83 21% 50% 27% -15 0 0.72 31% 0.5 .15 12% .33 62% .20 1.06 45% 36% 42% -4 -1 0.94 33% 1.5 .50 19% .44 58% .26
Nov
12		 Texas St. D F D+ F F 48% 12% 40% B F D+ B+ C B B C B- D D+ A- A+ A 43% 25% 32% D+ A F F F F F C F
0.98 48% 33% 24% -11 +2 0.83 26% 1.1 .28 16% .37 73% .27 1.14 61% 31% 12% -11 0 0.79 44% 1.2 .51 13% .42 77% .33
Nov
15		 Denver B+ D+ A+ A+ A 44% 13% 44% C+ A C+ F D D B B+ B+ D+ F+ B- F+ F+ 22% 20% 58% C- D- A- A+ A+ F+ B+ F B-
1.29 57% 67% 48% +12 +1 1.29 37% 0.9 .33 15% .36 75% .27 1.21 67% 36% 41% +7 -1 1.15 24% 0.5 .12 11% .24 86% .21
Nov
24		 Abilene Christian F F D+ F F 51% 16% 32% C+ F D+ D+ D+ C- A+ F C- C+ A+ A+ C- A+ 45% 16% 39% F A+ F D F B+ D C- D
0.81 47% 33% 17% -15 +1 0.76 26% 1.0 .26 23% .56 56% .31 0.98 30% 14% 35% -16 +1 0.73 45% 1.0 .45 24% .36 71% .26
Nov
25		 Georgia Southern D- F F F+ F 35% 22% 43% F+ F C- D- D A A+ F A+ A B+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 10% 63% B- A+ C F D C+ F A+ F
1.05 47% 27% 29% -10 -1 0.82 35% 0.9 .33 14% .58 68% .39 0.87 46% 0% 20% -20 0 0.63 27% 1.3 .36 16% .62 58% .36
Nov
30		 South Alabama F F F F F 11% 11% 77% D F C F F+ A- F A+ F F+ A F F D- 43% 23% 34% B D F A+ F B C F F+
0.82 43% 14% 25% -15 -1 0.71 32% 0.8 .25 14% .03 100% .03 1.16 43% 58% 39% +1 0 1.04 42% 0.9 .39 15% .32 84% .27
Dec
7		 Alabama F F C F F+ 26% 20% 54% C+ D- F+ D- D- F C F F+ B- D- D A+ A+ 30% 6% 64% C A+ D+ C+ C- F B+ F B-
0.71 43% 36% 24% -12 -1 0.76 19% 0.8 .15 23% .27 44% .12 1.25 70% 50% 23% -6 +1 0.93 37% 1.2 .43 6% .28 85% .23
Dec
13		 Colorado F F D+ B- D- 38% 31% 31% D+ D- B+ F D+ F C- F F C- C+ F F D- 58% 9% 33% F F+ F A+ A- B- B+ A+ A
0.88 43% 35% 35% -6 -1 0.87 33% 0.8 .26 22% .28 50% .14 1.22 59% 80% 44% +10 +3 1.27 46% 0.5 .22 15% .28 65% .18
Dec
17		 USC C- F C- F F+ 24% 27% 49% D- F+ A+ B- A F A+ A A+ F+ F D F F 41% 18% 41% D F C- F+ D- D+ C- F+ D-
0.94 42% 38% 25% -10 -2 0.78 43% 0.9 .40 23% .40 83% .33 1.31 76% 44% 43% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .44 15% .44 79% .35
Dec
22		 Seattle D B D- C- B- 47% 11% 42% A- B F C- F+ C- F B F+ C+ B+ D- A+ A 55% 13% 32% F A- F+ B- D+ C F D+ F
0.92 60% 33% 32% -1 +2 1.04 21% 0.9 .18 22% .21 75% .16 0.96 52% 43% 24% -8 +2 0.91 31% 0.8 .24 18% .43 73% .31
Dec
31		 Florida Atlantic F F F F+ F 41% 9% 50% B F D D D D A+ B A+ F F+ F F F 38% 9% 53% D- F C F F C+ C F D+
0.88 35% 20% 29% -15 +2 0.75 21% 0.9 .19 19% .46 77% .35 1.38 68% 60% 52% +20 +2 1.45 34% 1.4 .48 19% .31 80% .25
Jan
3		 Temple F C F F F 42% 22% 36% C F B- F D F A A+ A+ C B+ B A- A 50% 6% 44% F B+ F F+ F B- D A+ B-
0.86 58% 10% 19% -14 0 0.73 33% 0.8 .25 23% .39 85% .33 1.15 50% 33% 29% -8 +3 0.92 47% 1.2 .53 15% .41 65% .27
Jan
7		 Charlotte F F A+ D- F 37% 12% 52% B F F B D- B F F F D+ D- B- A+ A- 39% 6% 55% D- B+ F D+ F+ D+ A- B+ A-
0.90 32% 50% 30% -12 +1 0.81 20% 1.3 .25 12% .21 58% .12 1.15 68% 33% 26% -3 +2 1.00 42% 1.0 .42 17% .28 67% .19
Jan
10		 Tulane F D+ F F F 33% 27% 40% D F F+ F+ F F B F C- F B A- F F 22% 12% 66% C F+ F+ F F C A+ F A+
0.76 53% 8% 28% -13 -1 0.73 26% 0.8 .21 23% .36 58% .21 1.24 54% 29% 41% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.4 .39 15% .12 86% .10
Jan
14		 Rice C+ D+ A+ D- D+ 28% 20% 52% B- C- A D- B- B- F A+ D F D D- F F 18% 16% 66% D- F D F+ F+ D- D- C D-
1.19 57% 50% 31% 0 -1 1.00 43% 0.9 .37 15% .25 85% .21 1.44 63% 43% 55% +23 -1 1.45 39% 1.1 .43 15% .36 68% .25
Jan
18		 Memphis C D A+ F C+ 30% 21% 48% C- C+ B- F+ D+ D F D F F D+ F F F 56% 13% 31% F F D+ A B+ D- C B+ C+
0.95 53% 58% 26% -3 -1 0.95 35% 0.7 .25 23% .16 67% .11 1.31 63% 57% 53% +14 +2 1.35 39% 0.9 .35 17% .30 67% .20
Jan
21		 North Texas D F B D+ D+ 27% 27% 45% D- D+ F F F C+ A- A+ A+ F D+ A+ D- F+ 43% 12% 45% D+ F+ F D- F B- F A F+
0.91 42% 42% 30% -6 -2 0.86 24% 0.5 .12 22% .45 83% .38 1.19 62% 17% 36% +1 +1 1.06 54% 1.1 .59 19% .47 62% .29
Jan
24		 Temple D- B C- F D 44% 32% 24% D- D- A F C+ D F B F C- F A+ C C- 44% 28% 28% B- C F+ B+ C- C+ D C D
1.02 64% 38% 17% -4 -1 0.92 41% 0.8 .32 18% .15 75% .12 1.12 74% 17% 33% +1 -1 1.02 35% 0.8 .29 14% .41 77% .32
Jan
28		 UAB D+ F C F+ F 34% 24% 42% C- F C A+ B A B- A B D- C- F B- F 37% 29% 35% B+ F+ B C- C+ D+ F B+ F
1.03 45% 36% 28% -9 -1 0.83 26% 1.2 .31 13% .28 82% .23 1.18 61% 57% 29% +4 -1 1.08 29% 1.1 .32 10% .50 66% .33
Feb
4		 South Florida A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 22% 40% C+ A+ C A+ A C+ C- D+ C- F F F D+ F 52% 5% 43% D F F F F F B- B B
1.24 47% 55% 55% +12 0 1.26 30% 1.4 .43 18% .31 67% .21 1.54 68% 67% 35% +7 +3 1.22 47% 1.5 .71 7% .35 70% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 North Texas F B+ F+ F D 41% 30% 28% D+ D- D D- D- D- D+ D D F F A A D 48% 19% 33% C D F C F C+ F+ F F
0.83 63% 29% 15% -9 -1 0.83 27% 0.9 .24 26% .35 67% .23 1.16 70% 22% 25% -2 +1 1.00 53% 1.0 .50 19% .41 83% .33
Feb
11		 East Carolina D+ D- F C- F 39% 18% 43% B- F+ B+ F D+ B+ C F F F C+ F A+ C 31% 19% 50% C- C D F F F B- F D-
1.01 50% 20% 33% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.8 .30 14% .26 50% .13 1.24 53% 60% 22% -6 0 0.89 37% 1.6 .58 11% .32 90% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 45.8 38.7 13.0 1.8 0.1 99.3 13th
Total 45.8 38.7 13.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 2.3% 2.3
2-16 13.0% 13.0
1-17 38.7% 38.7
0-18 45.8% 45.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 37.2%