Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.9 #345
Expected Predictive Rating -12.4 #337
Pace 72.9 #77
Improvement -2.9 #307

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #338 F D- C- D C
Defense #316 D+ F D+ B D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #275 0.95 #359 -5.7 #345
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #190 0.71 #252 -0.8 #215
Three Pointers 45% #103 0.85 #345 -1.8 #245
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #358 -8.2 #358
Freethrows 15.3 #281 74% #143 11.4 #284
Second Chance 28.2% #251 0.87 #353 0.25 #320
Turnovers 17.3% #242
Total Offense -7.0 #338

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #202 1.15 #173 +0.3 #161
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #350 0.73 #135 +2.7 #12
Three Pointers 48% #24 1.09 #273 -5.3 #346
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #253 -2.3 #253
Freethrows 15.5 #90 71% #92 10.9 #82
Second Chance 37.5% #355 1.07 #215 0.40 #337
Turnovers 15.3% #251
Total Defense -4.9 #316

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #211 1.7% #325
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.8% #362 2.8% #230
Possession Length 16.7 #117 17.2 #155
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #151 0.23 #331
Improvement +0.6 #153 -3.5 #339

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 88.0% 76.4% 90.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Home) - 16.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 31 - 91 - 17
Quad 43 - 84 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 257 SIU Edwardsville L 60 - 77 36% -3  0 - 1 -25 -16 F F A -9 C F B+
 Wed, Nov 12 263 @Texas St. L 69 - 80 19% -10  0 - 2 -14 -4 F C B+ -10 A+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 280 @Denver W 84 - 79 22% +4  1 - 2 +1 +10 A+ F F -8 D- A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 258 Abilene Christian L 50 - 61 26% -7  1 - 3 -16 -17 F D D- -0 A+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 251 Georgia Southern W 77 - 64 25% -1  2 - 3 +8 -3 F D+ A+ +11 A+ D B-
 Sun, Nov 30 191 South Alabama L 58 - 82 25% -14  2 - 4 -29 -17 F F A- -12 F F B
 Sun, Dec 7 17 @Alabama L 55 - 97 1% -27  2 - 5 -21 -17 F F F -0 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 78 @Colorado L 64 - 88 3% -10  2 - 6 -13 -7 D- D+ F -5 F A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 48 @USC L 70 - 97 2% -10  2 - 7 -13 +1 F A+ F -13 F F D+
 Mon, Dec 22 121 Seattle L 68 - 71 14% -4  2 - 8 -3 -4 B+ F C- +0 A+ D+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 95 @Florida Atlantic L 70 - 110 4% -27  2 - 9 0 - 1 -31 -7 F D C- -20 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 140 @Temple L 57 - 76 7% -9  2 - 10 0 - 2 -15 -11 F D F -5 A- F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 173 Charlotte L 58 - 74 23% -9  2 - 11 0 - 3 -20 -14 F D- B -7 B+ F C
 Sat, Jan 10 172 Tulane L 52 - 85 23% -19  2 - 12 0 - 4 -37 -22 F F F -16 F F C
 Wed, Jan 14 239 Rice L 73 - 89 33% -11  2 - 13 0 - 5 -23 +6 D+ B B- -31 F F F
 Sun, Jan 18 92 @Memphis L 69 - 95 4% -12  2 - 14 0 - 6 -17 +2 C+ D F -18 F A- F
 Wed, Jan 21 127 @North Texas L 62 - 81 7% -14  2 - 15 0 - 7 -14 -1 D+ F D+ -13 D F C
 Sat, Jan 24 140 Temple L 69 - 79 16%
 Wed, Jan 28 117 UAB L 71 - 83 13%
 Wed, Feb 4 74 @South Florida L 69 - 92 2%
 Sat, Feb 7 127 North Texas L 61 - 72 15%
 Wed, Feb 11 267 @East Carolina L 69 - 78 20%
 Sun, Feb 15 173 @Charlotte L 66 - 80 10%
 Wed, Feb 18 95 Florida Atlantic L 71 - 85 9%
 Sun, Feb 22 70 @Tulsa L 67 - 90 2%
 Wed, Feb 25 267 East Carolina L 72 - 75 39%
 Sun, Mar 1 103 Wichita St. L 66 - 80 10%
 Sun, Mar 8 239 @Rice L 68 - 79 16%
Totals 4 - 24 2 - 16 -12 -7 F D- C- -5 D+ F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 1.2 7.5 8.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 20.7 12th
13th 21.1 31.9 18.4 5.0 0.5 0.0 76.8 13th
Total 21.1 33.1 25.8 13.3 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 1.5% 1.5
4-14 4.9% 4.9
3-15 13.3% 13.3
2-16 25.8% 25.8
1-17 33.1% 33.1
0-18 21.1% 21.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 16.2%