SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.1 #257
Expected Predictive Rating -5.8 #259
Pace 63.5 #319
Improvement +1.0 #132

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #319 D- C- D+ D F
Defense #146 B D+ C- D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #329 1.00 #340 -6.3 #350
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #15 0.72 #223 +3.7 #31
Three Pointers 36% #287 1.04 #149 -2.1 #262
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #309 -4.8 #314
Freethrows 15.7 #267 68% #318 10.6 #297
Second Chance 28.8% #235 1.03 #193 0.30 #224
Turnovers 17.6% #257
Total Offense -5.7 #319

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #266 1.03 #36 +4.1 #57
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #187 0.84 #297 -0.6 #229
Three Pointers 44% #84 0.91 #66 +0.6 #153
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #62 +4.0 #62
Freethrows 19.9 #308 74% #255 14.7 #312
Second Chance 34.2% #316 1.02 #154 0.35 #256
Turnovers 15.7% #231
Total Defense +0.6 #146

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.8% #352 -0.3% #138
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.5% #264 -7.6% #52
Possession Length 19.1 #337 17.5 #219
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #339 0.20 #273
Improvement +0.7 #147 +0.3 #166

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 13.0% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 79.2% 83.8% 59.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.2% 90.4% 68.7%
Conference Champion 8.4% 9.8% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.7% 3.9% 2.8%
First Round10.2% 11.2% 5.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 22 - 3
Quad 415 - 1016 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 345 @Texas San Antonio W 77 - 60 64% +3  1 - 0 +8 -2 F A F +9 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 188 Indiana St. L 55 - 64 49% -6  1 - 1 -14 -21 F F F +7 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 158 @Drake W 61 - 59 22% +5  2 - 1 +5 -1 C F C +7 A+ F D+
 Mon, Nov 17 35 @Wisconsin L 69 - 94 3% -12  2 - 2 -8 +7 C- A+ C -16 C- C F
 Fri, Nov 21 340 @Air Force L 63 - 77 63% -8  2 - 3 -22 -9 F D F -13 A- F F
 Sun, Nov 23 311 Alabama St. W 83 - 68 63% +2  3 - 3 +6 +10 C- C A+ -3 A+ C- F
 Tue, Dec 2 350 @North Florida W 72 - 63 66% +1  4 - 3 -0 -5 F F C- +5 A+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 260 Western Michigan L 73 - 83 63% -8  4 - 4 -18 -4 D- F A+ -15 F F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 310 @Eastern Illinois L 72 - 76 OT 52% -0  4 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -0 A- F D -9 F F B+
 Mon, Dec 22 356 @Western Illinois W 66 - 61 72% -3  5 - 5 1 - 1 -6 -10 F A+ F +4 C- B B+
 Thu, Jan 1 329 Southern Indiana W 59 - 55 79% +6  6 - 5 2 - 1 -10 -14 F A- F +4 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 302 Morehead St. L 72 - 73 72% +2  6 - 6 2 - 2 -12 -1 C- C- C -12 F B+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 237 Lindenwood W 66 - 62 58% +2  7 - 6 3 - 2 -3 -8 F D F +5 A+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 282 Arkansas Little Rock L 70 - 73 67% +6  7 - 7 3 - 3 -13 +0 F A F -13 C+ D F
 Thu, Jan 15 226 @Tennessee Martin L 59 - 65 34% +9  7 - 8 3 - 4 -7 -6 F F A+ -2 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 245 @Southeast Missouri St. W 68 - 55 37% +16  8 - 8 4 - 4 +11 +3 B- C- C- +10 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 241 Tennessee St. W 74 - 66 59% +2  9 - 8 5 - 4 +1 +5 B+ C- F -4 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 24 342 Tennessee Tech W 72 - 63 81%
 Thu, Jan 29 302 @Morehead St. L 67 - 68 49%
 Sat, Jan 31 329 @Southern Indiana W 66 - 64 59%
 Tue, Feb 3 237 @Lindenwood L 68 - 72 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 282 @Arkansas Little Rock L 67 - 68 45%
 Thu, Feb 12 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 69 - 67 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 226 Tennessee Martin W 65 - 63 56%
 Thu, Feb 19 342 @Tennessee Tech W 69 - 66 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 241 @Tennessee St. L 69 - 73 37%
 Thu, Feb 26 356 Western Illinois W 70 - 58 86%
 Sat, Feb 28 310 Eastern Illinois W 66 - 59 73%
Totals 15 - 13 11 - 9 -5 -6 D- C- D+ +1 B D+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 3.9 2.6 0.6 8.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 6.9 4.2 0.5 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 7.8 6.3 0.6 15.3 3rd
4th 0.2 4.4 8.5 1.3 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 9.1 3.1 0.1 14.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 6.7 5.4 0.3 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.0 1.0 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.2 1.2 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 8.3 16.1 20.6 21.2 15.9 8.8 3.0 0.6 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 97.3% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-5 84.6% 2.6    1.5 0.9 0.1
14-6 44.7% 3.9    1.0 1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 8.5% 1.4    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 3.1 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.6% 44.2% 44.2% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
15-5 3.0% 34.9% 34.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 2.0
14-6 8.8% 31.6% 31.6% 15.6 0.1 1.0 1.8 6.0
13-7 15.9% 21.1% 21.1% 15.8 0.0 0.7 2.7 12.5
12-8 21.2% 11.4% 11.4% 15.8 0.0 0.4 2.0 18.8
11-9 20.6% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 19.5
10-10 16.1% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.1 0.6 15.5
9-11 8.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.1
8-12 4.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.9
7-13 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 15.7 88.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.0 20.0 60.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%