SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#266
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#234
Pace65.7#248
Improvement-0.8#225

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#309
First Shot-5.8#328
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#131
Layup/Dunks-2.5#276
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#169
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#144
Freethrows-4.4#360
Improvement+0.6#151

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#202
First Shot-1.2#214
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#163
Layups/Dunks+1.8#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#302
Freethrows-0.6#224
Improvement-1.4#260
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 17.6% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 95.6% 97.9% 87.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 99.6% 93.8%
Conference Champion 22.4% 26.0% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.6% 9.1% 6.9%
First Round11.4% 12.9% 6.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 77.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 31 - 21 - 4
Quad 416 - 918 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 53   @ Indiana L 61-80 5%     0 - 1 -6.4 -8.2 +2.5
  Nov 08, 2024 13   @ Illinois L 58-90 2%     0 - 2 -12.3 -3.7 -9.5
  Nov 12, 2024 210   @ Indiana St. W 77-72 29%     1 - 2 +4.9 +2.2 +2.7
  Nov 15, 2024 306   @ Western Michigan W 79-60 50%     2 - 2 +13.1 +6.7 +7.2
  Nov 16, 2024 352   Canisius W 76-58 75%     3 - 2 +5.0 -2.2 +8.0
  Nov 19, 2024 347   @ Green Bay L 57-82 64%     3 - 3 -34.5 -22.9 -11.3
  Nov 29, 2024 245   North Florida L 73-78 56%     3 - 4 -12.6 -10.2 -2.2
  Dec 08, 2024 255   Ball St. W 82-69 58%     4 - 4 +5.0 +8.9 -3.0
  Dec 19, 2024 227   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 56-60 32%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -5.1 -10.4 +5.2
  Dec 21, 2024 265   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 64-80 40%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -19.3 -7.1 -12.8
  Jan 02, 2025 354   Western Illinois W 77-66 82%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -4.8 +12.4 -14.9
  Jan 04, 2025 349   Lindenwood W 58-47 80%     6 - 6 2 - 2 -3.9 -18.2 +14.6
  Jan 07, 2025 332   @ Eastern Illinois W 60-57 59%     7 - 6 3 - 2 -5.2 -7.3 +2.4
  Jan 11, 2025 298   Tennessee Tech W 67-59 66%     8 - 6 4 - 2 -2.1 -9.3 +7.4
  Jan 16, 2025 289   @ Tennessee St. W 87-80 2OT 44%     9 - 6 5 - 2 +2.5 -0.1 +1.6
  Jan 18, 2025 307   @ Tennessee Martin L 82-85 50%     9 - 7 5 - 3 -9.0 +11.8 -20.9
  Jan 23, 2025 324   Southern Indiana W 82-76 73%     10 - 7 6 - 3 -6.5 +4.0 -10.4
  Jan 25, 2025 282   Morehead St. W 65-54 62%     11 - 7 7 - 3 +1.8 -5.2 +8.1
  Jan 30, 2025 349   @ Lindenwood L 63-65 65%     11 - 8 7 - 4 -12.0 -12.6 +0.7
  Feb 01, 2025 354   @ Western Illinois W 69-65 68%     12 - 8 8 - 4 -6.8 -0.7 -5.7
  Feb 04, 2025 332   Eastern Illinois W 69-62 77%    
  Feb 06, 2025 298   @ Tennessee Tech L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 13, 2025 307   Tennessee Martin W 72-67 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 289   Tennessee St. W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 20, 2025 282   @ Morehead St. L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 324   @ Southern Indiana W 70-68 54%    
  Feb 27, 2025 265   Southeast Missouri St. W 70-68 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 227   Arkansas Little Rock W 65-64 53%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.5 9.8 8.1 1.9 22.4 1st
2nd 1.6 12.2 7.8 0.7 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.7 9.4 9.9 0.7 20.6 3rd
4th 0.1 4.1 9.4 1.5 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 7.4 2.3 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.4 0.1 5.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 1.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 1.6 5.8 14.6 22.9 26.0 18.3 8.8 1.9 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
15-5 91.9% 8.1    5.5 2.5 0.1
14-6 53.7% 9.8    2.7 4.7 2.2 0.2
13-7 9.6% 2.5    0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.4% 22.4 10.2 7.9 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.9% 38.1% 38.1% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 1.2
15-5 8.8% 31.6% 31.6% 15.7 0.0 0.8 1.9 6.0
14-6 18.3% 27.4% 27.4% 15.9 0.5 4.5 13.3
13-7 26.0% 17.1% 17.1% 16.0 0.2 4.3 21.6
12-8 22.9% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.0 2.0 20.8
11-9 14.6% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7 13.9
10-10 5.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.2 5.5
9-11 1.6% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 1.5
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 2.0 13.8 84.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 14.7 2.8 27.8 63.9 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%