SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#206
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#182
Pace65.4#289
Improvement+0.1#181

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#280
First Shot-1.9#228
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#308
Layup/Dunks-1.3#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#274
Freethrows-0.6#211
Improvement+0.6#129

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#126
First Shot+4.9#43
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#342
Layups/Dunks+8.1#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#202
Freethrows-1.4#270
Improvement-0.6#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 25.2% 18.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 89.6% 93.1% 80.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.7% 90.5% 83.9%
Conference Champion 35.1% 38.2% 27.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
First Four3.4% 3.0% 4.3%
First Round21.7% 23.8% 16.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 72.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 22 - 3
Quad 416 - 819 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 269 @Texas San Antonio W 77-60 51%     1 - 0 +14.0 +1.3 +12.0
  Mon, Nov 10 196 Indiana St. L 55-64 60%     1 - 1 -14.4 -19.2 +5.0
  Fri, Nov 14 128 @Drake W 61-59 22%     2 - 1 +7.5 +0.2 +7.5
  Mon, Nov 17 36 @Wisconsin L 69-94 5%     2 - 2 -9.0 +7.2 -17.6
  Fri, Nov 21 332 @Air Force L 63-77 66%     2 - 3 -21.1 -10.7 -10.7
  Sun, Nov 23 268 Alabama St. W 83-68 62%     3 - 3 +9.0 +10.7 -0.8
  Tue, Dec 2 343 @North Florida W 72-63 70%     4 - 3 +0.7 -1.8 +3.2
  Sat, Dec 6 267 Western Michigan W 72-66 72%    
  Thu, Dec 18 325 @Eastern Illinois W 66-63 62%    
  Mon, Dec 22 361 @Western Illinois W 70-61 79%    
  Thu, Jan 1 317 Southern Indiana W 76-67 80%    
  Sat, Jan 3 327 Morehead St. W 72-62 81%    
  Tue, Jan 6 246 Lindenwood W 73-68 67%    
  Thu, Jan 8 305 Arkansas Little Rock W 70-62 78%    
  Thu, Jan 15 239 @Tennessee Martin L 65-66 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 233 @Southeast Missouri St. L 70-72 45%    
  Thu, Jan 22 249 Tennessee St. W 72-67 67%    
  Sat, Jan 24 306 Tennessee Tech W 74-66 78%    
  Thu, Jan 29 327 @Morehead St. W 69-65 63%    
  Sat, Jan 31 317 @Southern Indiana W 73-70 60%    
  Tue, Feb 3 246 @Lindenwood L 70-71 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 305 @Arkansas Little Rock W 67-65 58%    
  Thu, Feb 12 233 Southeast Missouri St. W 73-69 65%    
  Sat, Feb 14 239 Tennessee Martin W 68-63 66%    
  Thu, Feb 19 306 @Tennessee Tech W 71-69 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 249 @Tennessee St. L 69-70 46%    
  Thu, Feb 26 361 Western Illinois W 73-58 90%    
  Sat, Feb 28 325 Eastern Illinois W 69-60 79%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 4.7 8.1 8.6 6.5 3.8 1.4 0.4 35.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 5.9 6.6 3.8 1.3 0.3 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.0 4.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.8 3.6 1.0 0.1 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.0 0.8 0.1 7.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 2.5 0.7 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.9 5.1 7.2 9.3 11.4 13.2 13.2 12.1 9.9 6.8 3.8 1.4 0.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4
18-2 100.0% 3.8    3.7 0.1
17-3 96.2% 6.5    6.0 0.5 0.0
16-4 86.7% 8.6    6.8 1.7 0.1
15-5 66.7% 8.1    4.8 2.9 0.4 0.0
14-6 35.9% 4.7    1.7 2.2 0.8 0.1
13-7 11.4% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 35.1% 35.1 25.0 7.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 52.8% 52.8% 11.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
19-1 1.4% 50.1% 50.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7
18-2 3.8% 52.7% 52.7% 14.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.8
17-3 6.8% 45.7% 45.7% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.2 3.7
16-4 9.9% 40.3% 40.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 0.8 5.9
15-5 12.1% 36.2% 36.2% 15.3 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.7 7.7
14-6 13.2% 27.1% 27.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.0 9.6
13-7 13.2% 20.1% 20.1% 15.7 0.0 0.7 1.9 10.5
12-8 11.4% 12.7% 12.7% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 10.0
11-9 9.3% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8 8.5
10-10 7.2% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.8
9-11 5.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 5.0
8-12 2.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.9
7-13 1.8% 1.8
6-14 0.9% 0.9
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.8 9.1 9.1 76.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.8 35.3 52.9 11.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%