Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#227
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#219
Pace68.0#193
Improvement+1.1#138

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#335
First Shot-6.5#339
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#174
Layup/Dunks-4.0#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#266
Freethrows-1.6#280
Improvement+0.2#176

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#99
First Shot+5.3#36
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#341
Layups/Dunks+4.0#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#115
Freethrows-1.8#303
Improvement+0.9#136
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.8% 32.4% 25.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 98.5% 99.5% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.5%
Conference Champion 40.9% 50.2% 24.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.3% 10.6% 12.6%
First Round24.4% 27.4% 19.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 63.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 22 - 5
Quad 417 - 719 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 205   @ Winthrop L 67-82 35%     0 - 1 -14.7 -14.4 +1.3
  Nov 12, 2024 93   @ Arkansas St. L 63-80 13%     0 - 2 -8.6 -2.2 -7.2
  Nov 16, 2024 202   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-64 35%     1 - 2 +17.4 +3.6 +13.3
  Nov 20, 2024 238   @ Tulsa W 71-57 44%     2 - 2 +12.0 +5.9 +7.6
  Nov 22, 2024 43   @ Arkansas L 67-79 6%     2 - 3 +2.1 -3.2 +6.3
  Nov 25, 2024 13   @ Illinois L 34-92 3%     2 - 4 -38.3 -28.5 -11.1
  Nov 27, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-59 92%     3 - 4 -0.2 -1.3 +1.7
  Dec 04, 2024 341   Central Arkansas W 63-57 84%     4 - 4 -8.3 -19.4 +10.9
  Dec 15, 2024 123   Illinois-Chicago L 69-77 OT 38%     4 - 5 -8.4 -7.8 -0.4
  Dec 19, 2024 266   SIU Edwardsville W 60-56 68%     5 - 5 1 - 0 -4.4 -12.5 +8.2
  Jan 02, 2025 307   @ Tennessee Martin W 57-56 59%     6 - 5 2 - 0 -5.0 -13.1 +8.3
  Jan 04, 2025 289   @ Tennessee St. L 86-95 54%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -13.5 -1.4 -10.7
  Jan 09, 2025 282   Morehead St. L 53-59 71%     6 - 7 2 - 2 -15.2 -19.4 +3.9
  Jan 12, 2025 324   Southern Indiana W 78-58 80%     7 - 7 3 - 2 +7.5 +4.9 +4.1
  Jan 14, 2025 265   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 73-71 49%     8 - 7 4 - 2 -1.3 -0.4 -0.8
  Jan 18, 2025 298   @ Tennessee Tech W 77-71 56%     9 - 7 5 - 2 +0.8 +6.2 -4.9
  Jan 23, 2025 354   @ Western Illinois W 62-51 76%     10 - 7 6 - 2 +0.2 -9.0 +10.4
  Jan 25, 2025 349   @ Lindenwood W 78-46 73%     11 - 7 7 - 2 +22.0 +5.7 +17.5
  Jan 27, 2025 332   Eastern Illinois L 54-56 75%     11 - 8 7 - 3 -12.7 -15.4 +2.4
  Jan 30, 2025 289   Tennessee St. L 70-72 72%     11 - 9 7 - 4 -11.5 -6.2 -5.3
  Feb 01, 2025 307   Tennessee Martin W 75-57 76%     12 - 9 8 - 4 +7.1 -0.9 +8.7
  Feb 06, 2025 324   @ Southern Indiana W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 282   @ Morehead St. W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 11, 2025 265   Southeast Missouri St. W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 13, 2025 298   Tennessee Tech W 72-65 75%    
  Feb 20, 2025 349   Lindenwood W 72-61 87%    
  Feb 22, 2025 354   Western Illinois W 69-57 88%    
  Feb 27, 2025 332   @ Eastern Illinois W 67-62 65%    
  Mar 01, 2025 266   @ SIU Edwardsville L 64-65 47%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.0 16.1 16.5 5.3 40.9 1st
2nd 1.4 12.6 10.8 1.5 26.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 6.7 8.3 1.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 6.1 1.2 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.2 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 1.8 6.3 15.5 25.1 27.9 18.0 5.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 5.3    5.1 0.2
15-5 91.9% 16.5    11.6 4.7 0.2
14-6 57.6% 16.1    5.1 7.9 2.8 0.3
13-7 12.0% 3.0    0.3 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.9% 40.9 22.0 13.5 4.2 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 5.3% 47.2% 47.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.1 2.8
15-5 18.0% 43.2% 43.2% 15.6 0.2 2.9 4.7 10.2
14-6 27.9% 35.5% 35.5% 15.8 0.0 1.5 8.4 18.0
13-7 25.1% 24.1% 24.1% 15.9 0.5 5.5 19.0
12-8 15.5% 17.4% 17.4% 15.9 0.1 2.6 12.8
11-9 6.3% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7 5.6
10-10 1.8% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.1 1.7
9-11 0.2% 0.0 0.2
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.8% 29.8% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.3 6.4 22.0 70.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 14.5 0.8 2.8 39.8 54.2 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%