Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.7 #282
Expected Predictive Rating -5.9 #260
Pace 66.4 #251
Improvement +7.1 #5

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #254 D+ C- F D- F
Defense #289 F C- B B- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 1.23 #98 -0.9 #217
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #19 0.57 #356 +1.0 #121
Three Pointers 34% #315 1.05 #133 -3.0 #284
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #255 -2.9 #258
Freethrows 14.9 #298 69% #291 10.3 #317
Second Chance 31.2% #167 0.95 #303 0.29 #231
Turnovers 19.6% #340
Total Offense -2.9 #254

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #168 1.36 #361 -4.4 #322
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #358 0.80 #252 +2.6 #20
Three Pointers 47% #35 1.20 #360 -7.7 #361
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #365 -9.5 #365
Freethrows 16.0 #117 72% #134 11.4 #107
Second Chance 35.5% #331 0.97 #73 0.34 #244
Turnovers 18.5% #70
Total Defense -3.8 #289

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #340 2.0% #341
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.2% #211 16.4% #363
Possession Length 18.4 #279 16.9 #107
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #107 0.23 #339
Improvement +5.3 #3 +1.7 #78

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 13.8% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 22.9% 39.0% 15.7%
.500 or above in Conference 89.1% 97.1% 85.6%
Conference Champion 13.5% 24.7% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.1% 6.6% 4.5%
First Round6.9% 10.7% 5.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Away) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 412 - 914 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 248 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72 - 92 32% -7  0 - 1 -22 -3 D+ B- F -19 F F B-
 Wed, Nov 12 102 @Marquette L 49 - 89 10% -18  0 - 2 -32 -18 F F F -17 F B C
 Sat, Nov 15 296 @Ball St. W 68 - 62 42% +2  1 - 2 +1 -4 C- A+ F +6 F C A+
 Tue, Nov 18 97 @Murray St. L 68 - 89 9% -16  1 - 3 -13 +0 F A+ F -14 F F D+
 Fri, Nov 21 263 @Texas St. L 56 - 65 34% -5  1 - 4 -12 -12 F D- F -1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 146 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 74 16% -1  1 - 5 -5 +3 A+ D F -9 F A- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 236 @Central Arkansas L 47 - 85 30% -29  1 - 6 -39 -27 F F F -11 F B- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 145 Arkansas St. L 78 - 90 33% -8  1 - 7 -14 +2 A+ F B- -15 F D+ D
 Tue, Dec 9 52 @West Virginia L 58 - 90 4% -22  1 - 8 -18 -1 F B C+ -22 F C C
 Tue, Dec 16 302 @Morehead St. L 64 - 78 44% -10  1 - 9 0 - 1 -19 -17 F D F -2 F D+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 329 @Southern Indiana W 77 - 62 53% +4  2 - 9 1 - 1 +7 +7 A+ F F +1 F F C
 Thu, Jan 1 342 Tennessee Tech W 77 - 58 77% +5  3 - 9 2 - 1 +4 +0 B F D+ +5 A+ D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 241 Tennessee St. L 79 - 84 53% -3  3 - 10 2 - 2 -12 -3 F A+ D -9 C F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 257 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 70 33% -6  4 - 10 3 - 2 +1 +11 C C A+ -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 237 @Lindenwood W 82 - 74 30% +5  5 - 10 4 - 2 +7 +13 B+ A- D -6 F C A+
 Thu, Jan 15 310 Eastern Illinois W 74 - 63 68% -4  6 - 10 5 - 2 -1 +7 B- B C- -6 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 356 Western Illinois W 86 - 79 83% +6  7 - 10 6 - 2 -10 +10 C D A+ -20 F D+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 245 @Southeast Missouri St. L 65 - 70 31% -5  7 - 11 6 - 3 -7 -5 F F A+ -2 F A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 29 241 @Tennessee St. L 74 - 79 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 342 @Tennessee Tech W 74 - 72 56%
 Tue, Feb 3 226 @Tennessee Martin L 65 - 71 29%
 Thu, Feb 5 237 Lindenwood W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 257 SIU Edwardsville W 68 - 67 55%
 Thu, Feb 12 356 @Western Illinois W 70 - 66 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 310 @Eastern Illinois L 66 - 67 46%
 Thu, Feb 19 226 Tennessee Martin W 69 - 68 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 74 - 73 54%
 Thu, Feb 26 302 Morehead St. W 74 - 70 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 329 Southern Indiana W 73 - 66 74%
Totals 13 - 16 12 - 8 -7 -3 D+ C- F -4 F C- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 5.5 4.6 1.6 0.2 13.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 7.6 4.9 0.7 0.0 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 7.6 6.5 0.6 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.2 4.3 8.6 1.3 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 8.6 3.0 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.6 5.0 0.2 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.6 5.1 0.8 10.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 2.0 2.8 0.9 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.8 7.3 13.7 19.4 21.0 17.0 10.9 5.3 1.6 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-4 98.4% 1.6    1.5 0.1
15-5 86.6% 4.6    3.1 1.4 0.1
14-6 50.0% 5.5    1.5 2.6 1.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 9.8% 1.7    0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.5% 13.5 6.3 4.4 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 33.3% 33.3% 14.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
16-4 1.6% 29.3% 29.3% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.1
15-5 5.3% 29.1% 29.1% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.7
14-6 10.9% 21.3% 21.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.6
13-7 17.0% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 0.1 2.2 14.7
12-8 21.0% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6 19.4
11-9 19.4% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6 18.8
10-10 13.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 13.4
9-11 7.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.2
8-12 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
7-13 0.7% 0.7
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 15.9 90.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%