Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.1 301
Expected Predictive Rating -8.8 304
Pace 65.9 251
Improvement +4.5 30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #287 D+ C- D F F+
Defense D+ #290 F C- B C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 295 61% 94 -1.3 228
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 16 29% 359 +1.5 98
Three Pointers 34% 325 34% 192 -3.9 311
1st FG Attempt 0.95 295 -3.6 295
Second Chance 30.3% 189 0.97 269 0.29 215
Turnovers 19.0% 306
Freethrows 0.23 356 67% 344 0.15 360
Total Offense -4.3 287

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 169 67% 355 -3.9 312
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 359 37% 155 +2.9 5
Three Pointers 48% 28 40% 361 -7.7 359
1st FG Attempt 1.19 365 -8.6 365
Second Chance 35.6% 339 0.95 73 0.34 246
Turnovers 19.1% 62
Freethrows 0.29 129 72% 148 0.21 125
Total Defense -3.8 290

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.7 348 +1.0 340
Shot Type Accuracy -1.9 239 +7.4 363
Possession Length 18.3 280 16.6 68
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 142 0.23 342
Improvement +1.9 #87 +2.6 #50

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 47% 57% 22%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Away) - 70.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 410 - 1011 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 268 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72 - 92 31% -7  4% 0 - 1 F -23 D -5 D+ B- F F -18 F F C+
 Wed, Nov 12 85 @Marquette L 49 - 89 6% -18  6% 0 - 2 F -30 F -19 F F F F -14 F B C-
 Sat, Nov 15 310 @Ball St. W 68 - 62 42% +2  57% 1 - 2 C +0 D -5 C+ A+ F B +6 F C A
 Tue, Nov 18 112 @Murray St. L 68 - 89 9% -16  2% 1 - 3 F+ -15 D+ -4 F+ A- F F -12 F+ F D+
 Fri, Nov 21 234 @Texas St. L 56 - 65 25% -5  5% 1 - 4 D -10 F -13 F D F B- +2 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 127 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 74 12% -1  37% 1 - 5 C- -4 C+ +2 A D+ F D- -7 F C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 190 @Central Arkansas L 47 - 85 19% -29  1% 1 - 6 F -37 F -29 F D- F D- -7 F C+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 141 Arkansas St. L 78 - 90 27% -8  1% 1 - 7 D- -14 C- -0 A F B+ F -13 F D D-
 Tue, Dec 9 56 @West Virginia L 58 - 90 4% -22  0% 1 - 8 F -19 C- -2 F+ B C+ F -21 F C+ C
 Tue, Dec 16 292 @Morehead St. L 64 - 78 37% -10  9% 1 - 9 0 - 1 F -19 F -19 F D+ F+ C+ +1 F+ D A+
 Thu, Dec 18 340 @Southern Indiana W 77 - 62 53% +4  73% 2 - 9 1 - 1 B- +6 B- +5 A+ F F B- +2 D- D- D+
 Thu, Jan 1 320 Tennessee Tech W 77 - 58 68% +5  75% 3 - 9 2 - 1 B- +6 D+ -3 B- F+ C- A- +10 A+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 235 Tennessee St. L 79 - 84 47% -3  4% 3 - 10 2 - 2 D- -12 D -6 F B C D -6 C+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 245 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 70 27% -6  6% 4 - 10 3 - 2 C +1 A- +9 C C+ A D- -8 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 246 @Lindenwood W 82 - 74 27% +5  88% 5 - 10 4 - 2 B- +6 A- +9 B B+ D+ C- -3 F D+ A-
 Thu, Jan 15 326 Eastern Illinois W 74 - 63 69% -4  7% 6 - 10 5 - 2 C- -2 C+ +3 C+ B+ C+ D+ -4 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 362 Western Illinois W 86 - 79 86% +6  87% 7 - 10 6 - 2 D- -13 B- +5 C- D+ A F -18 F D F
 Thu, Jan 22 230 @Southeast Missouri St. L 65 - 70 24% -5  13% 7 - 11 6 - 3 D+ -6 D- -8 F D A+ C+ +2 D- A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 235 @Tennessee St. L 63 - 70 26% +2  63% 7 - 12 6 - 4 D -8 F -13 F B+ C B +5 D D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 320 @Tennessee Tech L 77 - 87 46% -8  10% 7 - 13 6 - 5 F+ -17 C -0 B+ F B F -17 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 3 219 @Tennessee Martin L 52 - 55 22% -1  25% 7 - 14 6 - 6 C- -3 F -13 D C F A +10 D+ B- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 246 Lindenwood L 74 - 79 48% -0  36% 7 - 15 6 - 7 D- -13 C- -1 F A+ A F -12 D- D+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 245 SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 71 48% -9  0% 7 - 16 6 - 8 F -18 F -12 F+ F+ A- D -6 F+ A D+
 Thu, Feb 12 362 @Western Illinois W 72 - 66 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 326 @Eastern Illinois L 66 - 67 47%
 Thu, Feb 19 219 Tennessee Martin L 66 - 68 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 230 Southeast Missouri St. L 73 - 74 45%
 Thu, Feb 26 292 Morehead St. W 73 - 70 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 340 Southern Indiana W 72 - 65 73%
Totals 10 - 19 9 - 11 -8 D+ -4 D+ C- D D+ -4 F C- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ B- F C C- 34% 32% 34% F+ D+ C D+ C- D F+ D- F D+ F+ C+ F F 39% 13% 48% D- F D- B- C- B C+ C C+
1.03 61% 29% 34% -2 -2 0.95 30% 1.0 .29 19% .23 67% .15 1.14 67% 37% 40% +7 +1 1.19 36% 0.9 .34 19% .29 72% .17
Nov
10		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D D F A+ D 52% 20% 28% C+ D+ D A+ B- F D- F+ F+ F F C+ F F 30% 16% 54% D F C- F F C+ F F F
1.04 54% 20% 43% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.5 .39 22% .28 67% .18 1.32 73% 38% 44% +13 0 1.28 33% 1.7 .56 16% .39 78% .31
Nov
12		 Marquette F C+ F B+ F+ 36% 30% 34% D- F C F F F C+ F D- F F A+ F F 59% 4% 37% F+ F F A+ B C- C A B-
0.73 59% 0% 38% -9 -1 0.81 31% 0.5 .14 30% .28 54% .15 1.33 70% 0% 47% +13 +4 1.35 44% 0.6 .25 13% .31 61% .19
Nov
15		 Ball St. D A- F A+ B- 41% 34% 24% D- C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F B C- D C- F+ 41% 11% 48% F+ F A+ F C A F+ B- D-
1.01 71% 21% 50% +5 -2 1.10 46% 1.5 .69 34% .25 45% .11 0.92 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 14% 1.5 .21 22% .36 68% .25
Nov
18		 Murray St. D+ D+ F C- F+ 48% 40% 13% D- F+ A C A- F C+ C+ B- F A+ F F F 38% 13% 50% D+ F+ D- F F D+ F+ B- D-
1.03 52% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.83 43% 1.1 .46 21% .31 75% .23 1.34 44% 83% 46% +10 +1 1.23 37% 1.4 .50 14% .40 74% .30
Nov
21		 Texas St. F F F C- F 56% 18% 27% B- F B- F D F B- F+ C B- F C+ D- F 51% 24% 24% D- F F A+ A+ A+ D- A+ B-
0.87 44% 25% 33% -10 +2 0.84 32% 0.7 .21 23% .36 67% .24 1.01 74% 36% 36% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.2 .07 26% .34 56% .19
Nov
29		 Southern Illinois C+ A+ A+ F A 34% 23% 43% D+ A B- F D+ F F+ F F D- D F F F 49% 17% 34% F F F+ A C+ A+ F A D
1.02 81% 55% 25% +6 -1 1.13 31% 0.8 .24 25% .23 45% .10 1.16 65% 86% 43% +16 +1 1.37 35% 0.8 .26 23% .41 60% .25
Dec
3		 Central Arkansas F F F F F 37% 24% 39% D F C- F D- F F F F D- F F+ F 33% 0% 67% F F F A+ C+ B+ B- D C+
0.66 44% 17% 26% -15 -1 0.71 26% 0.9 .24 29% .18 22% .04 1.19 72% 39% +10 +2 1.26 36% 0.7 .25 20% .24 71% .17
Dec
6		 Arkansas St. C- A D A+ A+ 27% 38% 35% F A F A+ F B+ D- F F F F A C- F 36% 7% 57% D F C- D- D D- A+ F A+
1.09 73% 33% 53% +12 -3 1.20 9% 1.3 .13 13% .27 59% .16 1.26 80% 25% 34% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.2 .44 17% .15 100% .15
Dec
9		 West Virginia C- C F C D 27% 37% 37% F F+ A- C- B C+ A- F B- F F+ F F F 41% 4% 54% F F F A+ C+ C C+ A+ B+
0.92 54% 17% 33% -9 -3 0.78 33% 1.0 .33 18% .31 63% .19 1.43 68% 100% 56% +25 +2 1.57 48% 0.7 .35 16% .32 53% .17
Dec
16		 Morehead St. F B- F F F 38% 32% 30% F F F A+ D+ F+ A C+ A C+ D- A+ F D- 57% 22% 22% F F+ F C+ D A+ F D+ F
0.86 61% 27% 21% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.7 .29 19% .41 72% .30 1.05 65% 20% 40% +2 +1 1.09 42% 0.8 .35 24% .44 76% .34
Dec
18		 Southern Indiana B- A+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% C A+ B+ F F F B+ F C B- D+ A+ D D- 38% 15% 48% F+ D- A- F D- D+ D+ A+ B+
1.14 74% 50% 47% +17 +1 1.37 39% 0.2 .06 25% .38 63% .24 0.92 56% 0% 35% -6 +1 0.92 21% 1.4 .29 16% .32 44% .14
Jan
1		 Tennessee Tech D+ A+ C+ D B+ 28% 32% 40% F B- F B- F+ C- A F+ B A- A A+ A A+ 23% 21% 56% B A+ F A D+ A- D F F+
1.14 92% 40% 32% +9 -2 1.15 23% 1.3 .29 16% .39 68% .26 0.86 45% 10% 26% -15 -1 0.69 44% 0.8 .33 24% .33 82% .27
Jan
3		 Tennessee St. D C F C- F+ 42% 27% 31% F+ F C+ B+ B C A+ D A D D A+ A- B 49% 25% 26% F+ C+ D- F F D+ F+ F F
1.06 60% 23% 33% -3 -1 0.94 33% 1.2 .41 19% .48 72% .35 1.13 64% 14% 27% -6 0 0.91 35% 1.3 .45 15% .33 81% .27
Jan
8		 SIU Edwardsville A- B+ D- C B- 29% 40% 31% F C A- D- C+ A A+ F+ A- D- B D- F F 23% 28% 49% C+ F F C- F A+ D- C D-
1.16 64% 32% 33% -1 -3 0.94 42% 0.8 .34 11% .45 68% .31 1.12 50% 42% 43% +6 -2 1.09 45% 1.0 .45 26% .34 69% .24
Jan
10		 Lindenwood A- A+ B- D A- 42% 34% 25% F B A+ D- B+ D+ F+ A+ C- C- F+ F C F 43% 12% 45% D- F D+ C D+ A- B+ F C
1.19 77% 39% 31% +7 -1 1.13 47% 0.9 .43 19% .25 86% .22 1.08 67% 50% 32% +4 +1 1.12 34% 1.1 .38 23% .27 79% .21
Jan
15		 Eastern Illinois C+ A- F+ B B- 32% 30% 39% F C+ A C- B+ C+ C- B+ C+ D+ A C- F D- 31% 31% 38% C+ D- D- F F A+ B+ F+ B
1.15 71% 31% 35% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.1 .47 19% .32 82% .27 0.98 43% 36% 41% -1 -2 0.96 30% 1.6 .47 26% .21 80% .17
Jan
17		 Western Illinois B- A+ F A+ C 31% 26% 43% F C- D- B D+ A F+ A+ C+ F F F+ A- F 39% 26% 35% D F F A D F F B- D-
1.27 76% 14% 43% +6 -1 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 10% .25 100% .25 1.17 71% 43% 26% +2 -1 1.06 44% 0.7 .29 12% .39 65% .25
Jan
22		 Southeast Missouri St. D- F F A+ F 37% 30% 33% F F D- B- D A+ F D F C+ F+ B C+ D- 43% 12% 45% D D- A A+ A+ C- D- D D-
0.96 35% 25% 44% -7 -1 0.85 22% 1.3 .27 12% .28 71% .20 1.03 67% 33% 32% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.7 .14 16% .37 71% .26
Jan
29		 Tennessee St. F D F F F 28% 30% 43% F F C+ A+ B+ C F A+ F B D+ B+ C- D+ 43% 23% 34% D- D B F D+ A- F A+ F+
0.91 53% 19% 22% -15 -2 0.69 33% 1.4 .44 19% .16 89% .14 1.01 63% 30% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.2 .33 20% .42 61% .25
Jan
31		 Tennessee Tech C B A+ B B+ 48% 28% 24% C- B+ F F F B D B+ D+ F F F F F 44% 7% 49% F F F A+ F A+ F F F
1.13 65% 53% 38% +9 0 1.20 23% 0.7 .15 13% .25 80% .20 1.28 68% 67% 43% +13 +2 1.33 60% 0.7 .43 31% .45 86% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Tennessee Martin F C- C- F D 41% 30% 28% C- D D A- C F F D+ F A F A- C+ D+ 20% 8% 73% D+ D+ C+ B- B- A+ A A+ A+
0.84 58% 36% 23% -5 -1 0.89 28% 1.1 .31 27% .07 67% .04 0.89 75% 33% 31% 0 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .29 27% .22 50% .11
Feb
5		 Lindenwood C- D+ B+ F F 34% 26% 40% F F B- A+ A+ A C- C+ C F A- A F F+ 45% 25% 29% C+ D- F A- D+ D- D- C D
1.09 56% 43% 19% -8 -1 0.83 36% 1.4 .51 13% .31 72% .22 1.17 48% 23% 53% 0 0 1.02 41% 0.9 .38 16% .37 67% .25
Feb
7		 SIU Edwardsville F A F A C- 11% 54% 35% F F+ C- F F+ A- F D F D F A+ F F+ 33% 27% 39% D+ F+ A+ C- A D+ C+ F D
0.90 67% 23% 40% -4 -6 0.81 33% 0.6 .20 12% .17 70% .12 1.05 76% 14% 40% +3 -1 1.06 17% 1.0 .17 16% .27 87% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.6 0.6 3rd
4th 0.4 1.6 2.0 4th
5th 0.1 3.1 1.5 4.7 5th
6th 0.3 4.3 6.8 0.5 11.9 6th
7th 0.6 8.7 25.2 23.0 4.6 0.0 62.2 7th
8th 0.3 3.8 7.9 3.4 0.2 15.5 8th
9th 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.9 6.1 17.4 28.9 27.6 15.0 4.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 4.2% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.0
11-9 15.0% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.5 14.5
10-10 27.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.6 27.0
9-11 28.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.4 28.6
8-12 17.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 17.2
7-13 6.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.0
6-14 0.9% 0.9
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 16.0 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.9 13.6 86.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 0.8%