Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -8.1 299
Results Rating -9.1 310
Consistency 0.15 193
Pace 66.1 247
Improvement +5.9 23

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 265 D+ C D+ F F
Defense D 304 F+ C- C+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 315 B- 61% 100 -1.9 250
2 Pt. Jumpers 61% 12 F+ 30% 360 +2.1 76
Three Pointers 33% 331 C+ 35% 148 -3.6 301
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -1.9 353 C- -1.5 225
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 282
Second Chance C 29.9% 191 C 1.02 200 C 0.30 190
Opponents' Steals C- 9.8% 228
Other Turnovers D+ 8.1% 294
Turnovers D+ 18.0% 269
Freethrows F 0.23 360 F+ 67% 346 F 0.15 364
Total Offense D+ -3.6 265

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B 57% 55 A 6.3% 12
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 103 B- 3.9% 102
Three Pointers D+ 79% 293 C+ 0.7% 133
Total C 57% 154 A- 3.6% 17


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 163 F+ 67% 354 +3.8 305
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 348 A- 32% 17 -3.3 3
Three Pointers 46% 40 F+ 39% 351 +6.0 356
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 331 F+ +5.5 353
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.15 355
Second Chance F+ 36.1% 348 B 0.94 55 C- 0.34 255
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.7% 83
Other Turnovers C- 7.1% 203
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 108
Freethrows C+ 0.29 151 C+ 71% 124 C+ 0.21 135
Total Defense D -4.5 304

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 207 C- 9.5% 229
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 36% 328 A+ 16.0% 1
Three Pointers D 88% 305 C- 0.6% 239
Total D 63% 323 C+ 6.3% 123

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 268 16.8 99
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 165 0.22 334
Consistency 0.13 227 0.12 196
Improvement +3.7 38 +2.2 73

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 306 298 281
Results Rating Rank 319 314 269
Conference Record 9 - 11 9 - 11 9 - 11
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 4% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four2% 4% 0%
First Round1% 2% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 410 - 1011 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 261 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72 - 92 30% -7  4% 0 - 1 F -23 D -5 D B- F F -17 F F C
 Wed, Nov 12 87 @Marquette L 49 - 89 6% -18  6% 0 - 2 F -31 F -18 F F F F -14 F B C-
 Sat, Nov 15 292 @Ball St. W 68 - 62 36% +2  57% 1 - 2 C +2 D+ -3 B- A+ F B +5 F+ C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 125 @Murray St. L 68 - 89 10% -16  2% 1 - 3 F+ -15 D+ -4 F A F F -13 F F D
 Fri, Nov 21 232 @Texas St. L 56 - 65 25% -5  5% 1 - 4 D -10 F -13 F D F B- +3 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 121 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 74 10% -1  37% 1 - 5 C- -3 B- +4 A D+ F D- -8 F C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 171 @Central Arkansas L 47 - 85 17% -29  1% 1 - 6 F -36 F -29 F D- F D -6 F B- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 146 Arkansas St. L 78 - 90 28% -8  1% 1 - 7 D- -14 C- -1 A F B F -13 F D D-
 Tue, Dec 9 55 @West Virginia L 58 - 90 3% -22  0% 1 - 8 F -19 C- -1 F+ B+ B- F -21 F C C
 Tue, Dec 16 283 @Morehead St. L 64 - 78 33% -10  9% 1 - 9 0 - 1 F+ -18 F -19 F D F B- +2 D- D+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 337 @Southern Indiana W 77 - 62 54% +4  73% 2 - 9 1 - 1 B- +6 C+ +3 A+ F F B +4 D- D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 310 Tennessee Tech W 77 - 58 65% +5  75% 3 - 9 2 - 1 B- +7 C- -2 B- D- D A +9 A+ D+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 196 Tennessee St. L 79 - 84 39% -3  4% 3 - 10 2 - 2 D -10 D -4 F B+ C D -6 C+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 250 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 70 28% -6  6% 4 - 10 3 - 2 C +1 A- +10 C- C+ A F+ -8 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 276 @Lindenwood W 82 - 74 32% +5  88% 5 - 10 4 - 2 C+ +5 B+ +9 B B+ D+ D+ -4 F D+ A-
 Thu, Jan 15 326 Eastern Illinois W 74 - 63 70% -4  7% 6 - 10 5 - 2 C- -3 C+ +2 C B+ C D+ -4 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 364 Western Illinois W 86 - 79 90% +6  87% 7 - 10 6 - 2 F+ -15 B- +4 C- D A- F -19 F D F
 Thu, Jan 22 223 @Southeast Missouri St. L 65 - 70 24% -5  13% 7 - 11 6 - 3 D+ -6 D -6 F D+ A+ C+ +0 F+ A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 196 @Tennessee St. L 63 - 70 20% +2  63% 7 - 12 6 - 4 D+ -6 F -12 F A- C B+ +6 D C A-
 Sat, Jan 31 310 @Tennessee Tech L 77 - 87 42% -8  10% 7 - 13 6 - 5 F+ -16 C +1 B+ F C+ F -17 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 3 230 @Tennessee Martin L 52 - 55 24% -1  25% 7 - 14 6 - 6 C- -4 F -13 D C F A- +8 D C+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 276 Lindenwood L 74 - 79 55% -0  36% 7 - 15 6 - 7 D- -14 C- -1 F A+ A F -13 D- D D-
 Sat, Feb 7 250 SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 71 49% -9  0% 7 - 16 6 - 8 F -18 F -12 F+ F+ A D- -7 F+ A D
 Thu, Feb 12 364 @Western Illinois W 77 - 58 77% +7  82% 8 - 16 7 - 8 C+ +3 D -6 F+ D+ A A +9 D+ A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 326 @Eastern Illinois L 72 - 78 48% -2  25% 8 - 17 7 - 9 D- -14 C +1 D C+ B F -14 C F F
 Thu, Feb 19 230 Tennessee Martin W 67 - 65 45% -2  27% 9 - 17 8 - 9 C- -5 B- +4 C+ A+ C- F+ -9 B- D- F
 Sat, Feb 21 223 Southeast Missouri St. L 65 - 70 44% -1  40% 9 - 18 8 - 10 D- -12 F+ -9 F F+ A- C- -2 D+ A A-
 Thu, Feb 26 283 Morehead St. L 70 - 76 56% -9  3% 9 - 19 8 - 11 F+ -16 D- -7 F+ C+ B F+ -10 D+ F D
 Sat, Feb 28 337 Southern Indiana W 89 - 70 75% +15  90% 10 - 19 9 - 11 C+ +4 A +13 A+ C B D- -8 A+ F F
 Wed, Mar 4 276 Lindenwood L 75 - 77 43%
Totals 10 - 20 9 - 11 -8 D+ -4 F C- F D -4 C+ F+ F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ B- F+ C+ C- 34% 61% 33% F D+ C C C D+ F F+ F D F+ A- F+ F+ 39% 14% 46% D F+ F+ B C- C+ C+ C+ C+
1.03 61% 30% 35% -1 -2 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 18% .23 67% .15 1.15 67% 32% 39% +6 +1 1.15 36% 0.9 .34 18% .29 71% .16
Nov
10		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D D F A+ D 52% 20% 28% C+ D D+ A+ B- F D- F F+ F F C+ F F 30% 16% 54% D+ F D+ F F C F F F
1.04 54% 20% 43% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.5 .39 22% .28 67% .18 1.32 73% 38% 44% +13 0 1.28 33% 1.7 .56 16% .39 78% .31
Nov
12		 Marquette F C+ F B+ F+ 36% 30% 34% D- F C F F F C+ F D- F F A+ F F 59% 4% 37% F+ F F A+ B C- C A B-
0.73 59% 0% 38% -9 -1 0.81 31% 0.5 .14 30% .28 54% .15 1.33 70% 0% 47% +13 +4 1.35 44% 0.6 .25 13% .31 61% .19
Nov
15		 Ball St. D+ A F A+ B 41% 34% 24% D- B- A+ A+ A+ F D F F B C- D C- F+ 41% 11% 48% D- F+ A+ F C+ A+ F C+ F+
1.01 71% 21% 50% +5 -2 1.10 46% 1.5 .69 34% .25 45% .11 0.92 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 14% 1.5 .21 22% .36 68% .25
Nov
18		 Murray St. D+ D+ F C- F 48% 40% 13% F+ F A C+ A F C+ B- C+ F A+ F F F 38% 13% 50% D+ F D- F F D F+ C+ D-
1.03 52% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.83 43% 1.1 .46 21% .31 75% .23 1.34 44% 83% 46% +9 +1 1.23 37% 1.4 .50 14% .40 74% .30
Nov
21		 Texas St. F F F D+ F 56% 18% 27% B- F C+ F D F B- D- C B- F B- D- F 51% 24% 24% F F F A+ A+ A+ D- A+ B-
0.87 44% 25% 33% -10 +2 0.84 32% 0.7 .21 23% .36 67% .24 1.01 74% 36% 36% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.2 .07 26% .34 56% .19
Nov
29		 Southern Illinois B- A+ A+ F A 34% 23% 43% C- A B- F D+ F D- F F D- D F F F 49% 17% 34% F F D- A C+ A+ F A D-
1.02 81% 55% 25% +6 -1 1.13 31% 0.8 .24 25% .23 45% .10 1.16 65% 86% 43% +16 +1 1.37 35% 0.8 .26 23% .41 60% .25
Dec
3		 Central Arkansas F F F F F 37% 24% 39% D- F C- F D- F F F F D F F+ F 33% 0% 67% F F F A+ B- A- B- C- C+
0.66 44% 17% 26% -15 -1 0.71 26% 0.9 .24 29% .18 22% .04 1.19 72% 39% +10 +2 1.26 36% 0.7 .25 20% .24 71% .17
Dec
6		 Arkansas St. C- A+ D A+ A+ 27% 38% 35% F A F A+ F B D- F F F F A C- F 36% 7% 57% D- F C- D- D D- A+ F A+
1.09 73% 33% 53% +12 -3 1.20 9% 1.3 .13 13% .27 59% .16 1.26 80% 25% 34% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.2 .44 17% .15 100% .15
Dec
9		 West Virginia C- C F C D 27% 37% 37% F F+ B+ C+ B+ B- B+ F C+ F F+ F F F 41% 4% 54% F+ F F A+ C C C A+ B+
0.92 54% 17% 33% -9 -3 0.78 33% 1.0 .33 18% .31 63% .19 1.43 68% 100% 56% +25 +2 1.57 48% 0.7 .35 16% .32 53% .17
Dec
16		 Morehead St. F B- F F F 38% 32% 30% F F F A+ D F A C A B- D- A+ F D 57% 22% 22% F D- F B D+ A+ F D+ F
0.86 61% 27% 21% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.7 .29 19% .41 72% .30 1.05 65% 20% 40% +2 +1 1.09 42% 0.8 .35 24% .44 76% .34
Dec
18		 Southern Indiana C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% C A+ B+ F F F B+ F C B D+ A+ D D 38% 15% 48% F+ D- A F D+ C- C- A+ A-
1.14 74% 50% 47% +17 +1 1.37 39% 0.2 .06 25% .38 63% .24 0.92 56% 0% 35% -6 +1 0.92 21% 1.4 .29 16% .32 44% .14
Jan
1		 Tennessee Tech C- A+ B- D B+ 28% 32% 40% F B- F+ B- D- D A+ F B+ A A A+ A A+ 23% 21% 56% B- A+ F A+ D+ A D F+ F+
1.14 92% 40% 32% +9 -2 1.15 23% 1.3 .29 16% .39 68% .26 0.86 45% 10% 26% -16 -1 0.69 44% 0.8 .33 24% .33 82% .27
Jan
3		 Tennessee St. D C+ F C- F+ 42% 27% 31% F+ F B- A- B+ C A+ C- A D D A+ A B 49% 25% 26% F C+ D F F D+ D- D- F+
1.06 60% 23% 33% -4 -1 0.94 33% 1.2 .41 19% .48 72% .35 1.13 64% 14% 27% -6 0 0.91 35% 1.3 .45 15% .33 81% .27
Jan
8		 SIU Edwardsville A- A- F+ C C+ 29% 40% 31% F C- A D- C+ A A+ D- A F+ B D F F 23% 28% 49% B- F F C F A+ F C- F
1.16 64% 32% 33% -1 -3 0.94 42% 0.8 .34 11% .45 68% .31 1.12 50% 42% 43% +6 -2 1.09 45% 1.0 .45 26% .34 69% .24
Jan
10		 Lindenwood B+ A+ B- D A- 42% 34% 25% F B A+ D- B+ D+ F A+ D+ D+ F+ F C F 43% 12% 45% D- F D C D+ A- B- F C-
1.19 77% 39% 31% +7 -2 1.13 47% 0.9 .43 19% .25 86% .22 1.08 67% 50% 32% +4 +1 1.12 34% 1.1 .38 23% .27 79% .21
Jan
15		 Eastern Illinois C+ A F B- C+ 32% 30% 39% F C A C B+ C C B+ B- D+ A C F D- 31% 31% 38% C+ D- D F F A+ A- D- B
1.15 71% 31% 35% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.1 .47 19% .32 82% .27 0.98 43% 36% 41% -1 -2 0.96 30% 1.6 .47 26% .21 80% .17
Jan
17		 Western Illinois B- A+ F A+ C 31% 26% 43% F C- D- B- D A- F+ A+ B- F F D- A F 39% 26% 35% D+ F F A+ D F F C F+
1.27 76% 14% 43% +6 -1 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 10% .25 100% .25 1.17 71% 43% 26% +2 -1 1.06 44% 0.7 .29 12% .39 65% .25
Jan
22		 Southeast Missouri St. D F F A+ F 37% 30% 33% F+ F D- B+ D+ A+ F D- F C+ F+ B- C+ F+ 43% 12% 45% D- F+ A A+ A+ C- D D D-
0.96 35% 25% 44% -7 -1 0.85 22% 1.3 .27 12% .28 71% .20 1.03 67% 33% 32% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.7 .14 16% .37 71% .26
Jan
29		 Tennessee St. F D F F F 28% 30% 43% F F C+ A+ A- C F A+ F B+ D A- C- D+ 43% 23% 34% F+ D B+ F C A- F A+ D-
0.91 53% 19% 22% -15 -2 0.69 33% 1.4 .44 19% .16 89% .14 1.01 63% 30% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.2 .33 20% .42 61% .25
Jan
31		 Tennessee Tech C B A+ B A- 48% 28% 24% C- B+ F+ F F C+ D B D+ F F F F F 44% 7% 49% F F F A+ F A+ F F F
1.13 65% 53% 38% +9 0 1.20 23% 0.7 .15 13% .25 80% .20 1.28 68% 67% 43% +13 +2 1.33 60% 0.7 .43 31% .45 86% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Tennessee Martin F C- C F D 41% 30% 28% C- D D A- C F F D F A- F B B- D 20% 8% 73% D+ D C B- C+ A+ A A+ A+
0.84 58% 36% 23% -5 -1 0.89 28% 1.1 .31 27% .07 67% .04 0.89 75% 33% 31% 0 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .29 27% .22 50% .11
Feb
5		 Lindenwood C- D+ B+ F F 34% 26% 40% F+ F B A+ A+ A D+ C+ D+ F A- A F F+ 45% 25% 29% B- D- F A- D D- F+ C D-
1.09 56% 43% 19% -8 -1 0.83 36% 1.4 .51 13% .31 72% .22 1.17 48% 23% 53% 0 0 1.02 41% 0.9 .38 16% .37 67% .25
Feb
7		 SIU Edwardsville F A F A D+ 11% 54% 35% F F+ C F F+ A F D+ F D- F A+ F F+ 33% 27% 39% C- F+ A+ C A D C- F F+
0.90 67% 23% 40% -4 -6 0.81 33% 0.6 .20 12% .17 70% .12 1.05 76% 14% 40% +3 -1 1.06 17% 1.0 .17 16% .27 87% .23
Feb
12		 Western Illinois D D F A+ F+ 42% 27% 31% D- F+ D+ C D+ A F F F A F A+ A+ C 43% 13% 43% F D+ A+ A+ A+ D- C A+ A-
1.09 56% 19% 44% -1 -1 0.98 31% 1.2 .36 10% .20 54% .11 0.82 65% 14% 22% -8 +1 0.89 13% 0.6 .08 14% .30 44% .13
Feb
14		 Eastern Illinois C F B+ B- C- 33% 33% 33% F D C+ C C+ B C F F+ F A A F C+ 46% 25% 29% F C F A- F F F C+ F
1.08 47% 47% 35% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 17% .32 61% .20 1.17 41% 25% 43% -7 0 0.88 49% 0.8 .39 12% .51 73% .38
Feb
19		 Tennessee Martin B- A+ F A+ B+ 23% 47% 30% F C+ C A+ A+ C- B+ F C F+ C- A+ C+ B- 31% 18% 51% C B- F A- D- F A+ D A
1.12 80% 25% 46% +5 -4 1.02 33% 1.6 .53 20% .38 61% .23 1.09 60% 11% 32% -6 0 0.90 53% 0.7 .38 15% .20 70% .14
Feb
21		 Southeast Missouri St. F+ B- F F F+ 30% 44% 26% F F D+ F F+ A- F A+ D+ C- F B A F+ 27% 33% 40% A+ D+ F+ A+ A A- F C F+
0.95 60% 32% 23% -6 -4 0.82 25% 0.8 .19 13% .32 89% .29 1.03 92% 31% 26% +2 -2 1.02 33% 0.6 .21 21% .41 68% .28
Feb
26		 Morehead St. D- A D+ F D+ 26% 38% 36% F F+ D+ B C+ B C+ F D+ F+ F A+ B+ C 48% 15% 37% F D+ D- F F D D B+ C-
1.08 69% 37% 28% -1 -3 0.94 33% 1.1 .36 12% .34 63% .21 1.18 73% 0% 29% -1 +1 1.02 39% 1.5 .58 15% .35 68% .24
Feb
28		 Southern Indiana A A- C- A+ A+ 35% 27% 38% F+ A+ F+ A+ C B F D+ F D- A A+ A+ A+ 39% 28% 33% C+ A+ F F F F F F F
1.33 67% 36% 60% +17 -1 1.35 26% 1.3 .33 13% .24 71% .17 1.04 38% 13% 22% -21 -1 0.59 42% 1.0 .44 9% .43 77% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 100.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 1.9 98.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 16.0 98.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.2%
Lose Out 57.3%