Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#316
Expected Predictive Rating-11.9#324
Pace64.4#310
Improvement-1.2#278

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#312
First Shot-4.5#302
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#212
Layup/Dunks-3.8#305
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#148
Freethrows-0.3#195
Improvement-2.1#338

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#278
First Shot-3.0#275
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#208
Layups/Dunks-0.3#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#150
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#337
Freethrows+1.8#82
Improvement+0.9#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 1.5% 3.3% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 10.6% 14.6% 9.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 27.7% 21.6% 30.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 28.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 82 - 12
Quad 46 - 88 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 318 Louisiana W 75-64 63%     1 - 0 -0.9 +5.6 -5.5
  Tue, Nov 11 36 @Wisconsin L 55-86 2%     1 - 1 -15.0 -9.3 -6.4
  Sat, Nov 15 305 Arkansas Little Rock L 62-68 60%     1 - 2 -17.0 -12.4 -4.9
  Sat, Nov 22 196 @Indiana St. L 52-70 19%     1 - 3 -17.4 -14.2 -4.6
  Fri, Nov 28 205 Monmouth L 73-80 29%     1 - 4 -9.7 +2.9 -12.9
  Sat, Nov 29 331 @Lafayette L 37-55 44%     1 - 5 -24.9 -33.1 +5.8
  Sun, Nov 30 321 Le Moyne W 96-85 53%     2 - 5 +1.8 +18.5 -16.3
  Wed, Dec 3 279 @Evansville L 52-64 32%     2 - 6 -15.5 -18.0 +2.0
  Tue, Dec 9 147 South Dakota St. L 66-72 28%    
  Sun, Dec 14 224 @Campbell L 68-76 23%    
  Sat, Dec 20 127 Miami (OH) L 69-77 23%    
  Sat, Jan 3 215 @Buffalo L 67-75 23%    
  Tue, Jan 6 203 Eastern Michigan L 66-69 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 175 @Massachusetts L 67-77 18%    
  Tue, Jan 13 54 @Akron L 67-88 3%    
  Fri, Jan 16 194 Ohio L 72-75 38%    
  Tue, Jan 20 309 @Central Michigan L 68-71 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 330 Northern Illinois W 74-70 65%    
  Sat, Jan 31 173 @Toledo L 68-78 17%    
  Tue, Feb 3 119 @Bowling Green L 62-77 10%    
  Wed, Feb 11 215 Buffalo L 70-72 43%    
  Sat, Feb 14 122 Kent St. L 72-80 22%    
  Tue, Feb 17 194 @Ohio L 69-78 21%    
  Sat, Feb 21 54 Akron L 70-85 9%    
  Tue, Feb 24 175 Massachusetts L 70-74 36%    
  Sat, Feb 28 330 @Northern Illinois L 71-73 44%    
  Tue, Mar 3 267 @Western Michigan L 68-74 31%    
  Fri, Mar 6 309 Central Michigan W 71-68 60%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.1 1.5 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.0 0.4 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.4 5.0 0.9 0.1 11.0 9th
10th 0.6 4.1 6.3 2.0 0.1 13.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.8 7.9 2.8 0.2 16.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 5.5 7.5 3.4 0.4 0.0 18.3 12th
13th 0.7 3.1 5.6 5.5 2.1 0.3 17.2 13th
Total 0.7 3.2 7.0 11.8 15.1 16.3 14.6 12.1 8.5 5.4 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2
15-3 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 9.1% 0.0    0.0
13-5 12.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 0.2
12-6 0.6% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.8
9-9 5.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.4
8-10 8.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.5
7-11 12.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.1
6-12 14.6% 14.6
5-13 16.3% 16.3
4-14 15.1% 15.1
3-15 11.8% 11.8
2-16 7.0% 7.0
1-17 3.2% 3.2
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%