Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.7 #296
Expected Predictive Rating -9.7 #321
Pace 62.5 #339
Improvement +2.7 #56

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #281 F F C+ C C
Defense #285 D- D B- C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #219 1.04 #313 -3.1 #286
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #170 0.65 #315 -0.9 #225
Three Pointers 42% #153 0.92 #296 -1.4 #232
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #333 -5.5 #331
Freethrows 17.0 #206 74% #149 12.5 #185
Second Chance 26.6% #290 0.84 #357 0.22 #346
Turnovers 15.6% #131
Total Offense -3.9 #281

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #277 1.22 #262 +0.8 #141
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #162 0.75 #167 -0.1 #188
Three Pointers 44% #92 1.20 #357 -5.5 #350
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #320 -4.8 #321
Freethrows 15.0 #69 78% #349 11.6 #116
Second Chance 35.6% #332 1.03 #170 0.37 #297
Turnovers 18.0% #82
Total Defense -3.7 #285

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #210 -0.5% #118
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.5% #335 9.9% #336
Possession Length 19.5 #348 16.5 #58
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #330 0.14 #69
Improvement +3.3 #28 -0.6 #224

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.1% 8.3% 1.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 7.9% 27.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 68.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 48 - 99 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 312 Louisiana W 75 - 64 67% +2  1 - 0 -1 +5 A- D+ C -6 D- F B
 Tue, Nov 11 35 @Wisconsin L 55 - 86 2% -19  1 - 1 -14 -10 F D F -5 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 282 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 68 58% -2  1 - 2 -16 -13 F F F -3 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 188 @Indiana St. L 52 - 70 20% -2  1 - 3 -17 -16 F F F -2 D+ C B+
 Fri, Nov 28 202 Monmouth L 73 - 80 31% -4  1 - 4 -10 +5 A- F A -15 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 314 @Lafayette L 37 - 55 45% -4  1 - 5 -24 -33 F F F +6 A+ D- F
 Sun, Nov 30 278 Le Moyne W 96 - 85 46% +0  2 - 5 +4 +23 C- A+ C- -19 F B F
 Wed, Dec 3 271 @Evansville L 52 - 64 33% -1  2 - 6 -15 -17 F F F +1 C B- B
 Tue, Dec 9 170 South Dakota St. L 64 - 68 36% -0  2 - 7 -8 -5 F C- A+ -4 D C- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 190 @Campbell L 64 - 69 20% +1  2 - 8 -4 -9 F F F +5 A A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 89 Miami (OH) L 77 - 86 15% -3  2 - 9 0 - 1 -6 +4 B- F A+ -9 D C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 201 @Buffalo L 72 - 85 22% -14  2 - 10 0 - 2 -13 +2 F B- D -16 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 6 198 Eastern Michigan L 52 - 74 42% -13  2 - 11 0 - 3 -28 -11 F F A+ -21 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 176 @Massachusetts L 71 - 79 19% -3  2 - 12 0 - 4 -6 +2 C D- B -8 F A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 64 @Akron L 77 - 87 5% -11  2 - 13 0 - 5 +2 +8 B D- A+ -6 C B F
 Fri, Jan 16 196 Ohio W 76 - 71 41% +8  3 - 13 1 - 5 -0 +3 C- F C+ -4 C C B-
 Tue, Jan 20 322 @Central Michigan W 68 - 67 47% +5  4 - 13 2 - 5 -6 +4 C F A+ -10 F C- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 318 Northern Illinois W 72 - 67 68%
 Sat, Jan 31 166 @Toledo L 69 - 79 17%
 Tue, Feb 3 129 @Bowling Green L 64 - 77 11%
 Sat, Feb 7 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 76 - 71 69%
 Wed, Feb 11 201 Buffalo L 71 - 73 43%
 Sat, Feb 14 148 Kent St. L 75 - 80 31%
 Tue, Feb 17 196 @Ohio L 69 - 77 22%
 Sat, Feb 21 64 Akron L 71 - 84 12%
 Tue, Feb 24 176 Massachusetts L 72 - 75 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 318 @Northern Illinois L 69 - 70 46%
 Tue, Mar 3 260 @Western Michigan L 69 - 74 31%
 Fri, Mar 6 322 Central Michigan W 72 - 67 68%
Totals 9 - 20 6 - 12 -8 -4 F F C+ -4 D- D B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 1.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 2.0 0.2 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 4.2 1.0 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.9 6.2 3.5 0.2 10.8 8th
9th 0.7 6.8 7.4 0.8 0.0 15.8 9th
10th 0.3 6.8 11.4 2.4 0.0 20.9 10th
11th 0.1 4.7 10.7 3.7 0.2 19.3 11th
12th 0.1 2.7 7.7 3.3 0.2 14.1 12th
13th 1.1 3.1 1.4 0.1 5.7 13th
Total 1.2 5.9 14.1 21.6 23.0 17.7 10.4 4.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 1.3
9-9 4.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.4
8-10 10.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.4
7-11 17.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.6
6-12 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.0
5-13 21.6% 21.6
4-14 14.1% 14.1
3-15 5.9% 5.9
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%