Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
92 Akron 30.7%   12   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 7 14 - 4 +5.5      +4.2 70 +1.3 122 76.4 22 +11.1 15 0.0 1
113 Miami (OH) 19.8%   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 7 12 - 5 +3.5      +2.5 102 +1.0 128 71.1 108 +7.5 35 0.0 1
136 Kent St. 12.5%   0 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 7 +1.3      +1.2 124 +0.1 166 68.4 190 -13.1 349 0.0 1
150 Ohio 9.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 13 11 - 7 0.0      +1.8 111 -1.7 221 74.5 46 -14.6 352 0.0 1
152 Bowling Green 8.8%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 10 - 8 -0.1      -1.5 214 +1.4 121 71.0 112 +4.7 72 0.0 1
187 Massachusetts 5.3%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -1.8      -2.3 234 +0.4 152 75.9 25 -16.7 358 0.0 1
195 Toledo 4.8%   0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 13 9 - 8 -2.2      +2.9 94 -5.1 332 70.0 134 -16.2 356 0.0 1
225 Ball St. 3.6%   1 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -3.6      -0.5 176 -3.0 281 66.3 241 +5.2 62 0.0 1
256 Eastern Michigan 1.9%   1 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -5.1      -3.1 259 -2.0 235 69.0 167 +1.7 101 0.0 1
275 Central Michigan 1.6%   1 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -5.9      -2.5 241 -3.4 290 67.4 221 +5.7 56 0.0 1
281 Western Michigan 1.2%   1 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -6.3      -3.4 274 -2.9 275 69.8 138 +3.6 83 0.0 1
306 Northern Illinois 0.8%   1 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -7.7      -3.0 253 -4.7 326 71.3 104 -3.4 306 0.0 1
321 Buffalo 0.4%   1 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 5 - 13 -9.0      -3.0 257 -6.0 349 72.6 74 +2.6 92 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Akron 2.4 46.6 20.8 11.9 7.7 4.9 3.2 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1
Miami (OH) 3.9 19.2 19.5 15.5 12.2 9.6 7.7 5.6 4.1 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2
Kent St. 4.4 17.4 15.4 14.4 11.9 10.0 8.3 6.7 5.2 4.0 2.9 2.0 1.3 0.6
Ohio 4.9 12.3 14.1 13.1 12.1 11.0 9.2 7.7 6.1 5.3 3.7 2.8 1.8 0.9
Bowling Green 5.3 10.8 12.0 12.1 11.3 10.7 9.4 8.6 7.2 6.2 4.5 3.6 2.4 1.3
Massachusetts 6.1 6.0 8.8 9.4 10.9 10.6 10.7 9.5 8.5 7.9 6.4 5.2 3.8 2.2
Toledo 6.7 3.5 6.4 8.1 9.5 10.3 10.7 10.5 9.9 8.8 8.1 6.5 4.8 2.8
Ball St. 7.0 3.7 5.5 7.1 9.0 9.3 10.1 10.1 9.8 9.4 8.4 7.4 5.7 4.5
Eastern Michigan 8.3 1.7 3.1 4.4 5.5 6.8 7.8 9.2 10.1 10.7 11.1 11.5 10.4 7.7
Central Michigan 8.4 1.4 2.7 4.0 5.5 6.8 7.9 9.2 9.9 10.8 10.9 11.2 10.4 9.2
Western Michigan 8.9 1.1 1.9 2.9 4.4 5.3 6.7 7.9 9.8 10.8 12.1 12.8 13.3 11.2
Northern Illinois 9.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 3.6 4.8 6.1 7.6 9.0 10.5 11.8 13.8 14.1 14.0
Buffalo 10.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.4 3.6 5.1 7.1 8.8 11.4 15.1 18.7 24.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.9 3.1 4.9 7.8 10.1 13.4 15.2 15.7 14.0 8.7 3.6
Miami (OH) 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 3.6 5.7 8.0 10.5 12.5 13.9 13.6 12.4 9.0 5.2 2.0
Kent St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.3 5.0 7.1 9.2 10.9 12.1 12.4 12.0 9.9 7.2 4.7 2.0 0.6
Ohio 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.6 6.4 8.3 10.5 11.6 12.5 11.6 10.5 8.5 5.7 3.0 1.4 0.3
Bowling Green 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.6 5.2 7.6 9.5 10.7 11.6 12.1 10.9 9.1 7.2 4.7 2.6 1.2 0.3
Massachusetts 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.3 7.3 9.2 11.0 12.0 11.9 11.3 9.2 6.7 4.8 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1
Toledo 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.3 6.5 8.9 11.0 12.0 12.8 11.5 10.2 8.0 5.4 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1
Ball St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.5 5.1 7.5 9.5 11.2 11.7 11.6 11.2 9.2 6.9 4.7 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
Eastern Michigan 7 - 11 0.4 1.7 3.6 6.1 8.7 10.9 12.2 12.3 11.4 10.2 7.8 6.0 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Central Michigan 7 - 11 0.5 1.9 3.6 6.5 8.9 11.1 12.1 12.0 11.5 9.7 8.2 6.0 4.0 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1
Western Michigan 7 - 11 0.6 2.4 5.2 8.0 10.7 12.4 12.9 12.3 10.4 8.5 6.3 4.7 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Illinois 6 - 12 0.9 3.2 6.2 8.9 11.7 12.8 13.1 11.7 9.6 8.0 5.6 3.7 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 5 - 13 2.3 6.3 10.2 13.3 14.1 13.8 12.2 9.7 7.3 4.6 2.8 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 46.6% 34.1 10.0 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Miami (OH) 19.2% 11.3 5.8 1.7 0.3 0.0
Kent St. 17.4% 11.0 4.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ohio 12.3% 7.2 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
Bowling Green 10.8% 6.5 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 6.0% 3.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Toledo 3.5% 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Ball St. 3.7% 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 1.7% 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 1.1% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 30.7% 30.3% 0.5% 12   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 8.2 12.2 5.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 69.3 0.6%
Miami (OH) 19.8% 19.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.6 7.2 4.7 2.5 0.7 0.2 80.2 0.3%
Kent St. 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 3.6 2.6 1.4 0.8 87.5 0.0%
Ohio 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.9 90.8 0.0%
Bowling Green 8.8% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.1 91.2 0.0%
Massachusetts 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.8 94.7 0.0%
Toledo 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.7 95.2 0.0%
Ball St. 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.3 96.4 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 98.1 0.0%
Central Michigan 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 98.4 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 98.8 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.2 0.0%
Buffalo 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 30.7% 0.4% 30.6% 6.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 19.8% 0.2% 19.7% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 12.5% 0.4% 12.6% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 9.2% 0.5% 9.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 8.8% 0.1% 8.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 5.3% 0.4% 5.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 4.8% 0.3% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 3.6% 0.1% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.9% 0.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 1.6% 0.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.7 0.0
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 97.7 1.5 0.0
2nd Round 13.9% 0.1 86.1 13.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0