Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
113 Kent St. 35.0%   14   7 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 7 14 - 4 +3.4      -1.1 202 +4.5 63 62.7 332 +8.8 70 0.0 1
149 Ohio 17.4%   5 - 6 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 6 +0.4      +2.1 120 -1.7 224 73.0 75 -2.6 208 0.0 1
163 Akron 15.1%   4 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 -0.3      +0.6 150 -1.0 199 75.8 34 -0.6 177 0.0 1
209 Miami (OH) 9.0%   5 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 -2.3      -2.0 234 -0.3 176 69.3 169 +0.5 160 0.0 1
211 Toledo 8.2%   5 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -2.5      +2.3 114 -4.8 318 73.5 67 +0.2 165 0.0 1
225 Central Michigan 7.3%   2 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 14 10 - 8 -3.3      -3.6 276 +0.3 158 71.1 120 -1.8 193 0.0 1
267 Bowling Green 3.1%   3 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -5.7      -1.7 222 -4.0 298 71.7 101 -8.7 311 0.0 1
288 Ball St. 2.0%   2 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -6.8      -2.8 250 -4.0 299 66.5 244 -10.1 319 0.0 1
296 Western Michigan 1.5%   2 - 8 0 - 0 9 - 20 7 - 11 -7.2      -2.7 245 -4.5 313 68.3 201 -11.3 329 0.0 1
317 Eastern Michigan 0.8%   4 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -8.8      -4.2 293 -4.6 315 68.8 186 -4.8 245 0.0 1
330 Buffalo 0.5%   3 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -9.9      -4.9 311 -5.0 325 71.5 109 -5.1 250 0.0 1
346 Northern Illinois 0.2%   1 - 8 0 - 0 6 - 21 5 - 13 -12.0      -7.5 351 -4.5 314 71.6 105 -12.5 334 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Kent St. 2.2 50.5 20.8 11.4 7.3 4.5 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Ohio 3.6 19.9 19.7 16.3 13.2 10.5 7.9 5.4 3.5 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
Akron 3.7 19.6 19.1 16.0 13.1 10.6 7.7 5.8 3.7 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2
Miami (OH) 4.5 11.4 14.4 15.4 14.6 12.7 10.2 7.7 5.7 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.5
Toledo 5.0 8.6 11.8 13.4 13.3 13.1 11.5 9.9 7.4 5.4 3.2 1.7 0.6
Central Michigan 4.9 8.6 12.8 13.5 13.5 12.7 11.1 9.1 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.0 0.9
Bowling Green 6.4 3.1 6.0 8.0 10.1 11.7 12.5 12.4 11.4 9.7 7.4 4.8 2.9
Ball St. 7.3 1.5 3.6 5.3 7.2 8.9 10.7 12.4 13.6 13.0 10.9 8.0 4.9
Western Michigan 7.7 1.1 2.4 4.1 5.8 7.7 9.9 12.5 14.3 14.3 12.8 9.6 5.6
Eastern Michigan 8.9 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.1 4.6 6.6 8.7 11.7 14.9 17.7 16.5 13.0
Buffalo 9.4 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.5 5.1 7.0 9.8 13.0 16.7 20.9 19.4
Northern Illinois 10.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.2 5.0 8.0 11.1 16.0 22.6 30.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kent St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 5.0 8.2 11.6 15.3 17.1 16.3 12.4 6.8 2.2
Ohio 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.7 8.7 11.8 14.9 15.3 14.2 11.3 7.4 3.7 1.3 0.2
Akron 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.5 5.8 9.0 12.2 14.1 14.6 14.0 11.1 7.2 4.0 1.3 0.3
Miami (OH) 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 5.8 8.5 11.8 13.9 15.1 13.7 11.2 7.5 4.2 1.9 0.5 0.1
Toledo 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.6 7.5 10.5 13.2 14.9 14.1 12.1 9.1 5.8 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
Central Michigan 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.8 7.0 9.9 12.4 14.5 13.8 12.4 9.3 5.9 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.1
Bowling Green 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.4 5.9 9.3 12.0 13.6 14.3 13.0 10.3 7.5 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Ball St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.3 5.9 9.4 12.3 14.2 14.3 12.7 10.4 7.2 4.4 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Michigan 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.1 7.3 10.8 13.9 15.1 14.4 12.0 8.7 5.8 3.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 6 - 12 0.3 1.7 4.7 8.5 12.3 14.8 15.5 13.6 10.9 7.8 5.0 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Buffalo 6 - 12 0.9 3.4 7.3 11.4 14.5 15.1 14.0 11.8 8.8 5.9 3.5 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 5 - 13 1.6 5.5 11.1 14.9 16.9 15.7 12.7 9.4 6.0 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kent St. 50.5% 37.3 10.6 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio 19.9% 11.8 6.2 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Akron 19.6% 11.9 5.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 11.4% 6.3 3.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Toledo 8.6% 4.5 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 8.6% 4.5 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Bowling Green 3.1% 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 1.5% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kent St. 35.0% 35.0% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 10.1 13.9 8.0 1.8 0.1 65.0 0.0%
Ohio 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.5 5.9 5.5 1.7 82.6 0.0%
Akron 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 3.0 5.2 4.4 1.5 84.9 0.0%
Miami (OH) 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.9 3.0 1.1 91.0 0.0%
Toledo 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.5 1.3 91.8 0.0%
Central Michigan 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.5 1.6 92.7 0.0%
Bowling Green 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 96.9 0.0%
Ball St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 98.0 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 98.5 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 99.2 0.0%
Buffalo 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kent St. 35.0% 0.0% 34.9% 4.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 17.4% 0.5% 17.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 15.1% 0.5% 14.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 9.0% 0.3% 8.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 8.2% 0.4% 8.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 7.3% 0.8% 6.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 3.1% 1.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 96.9% 1.0 3.1 96.9
2nd Round 7.9% 0.1 92.1 7.9
Sweet Sixteen 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0