Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
64 Akron 44.6%   12   13 - 4 6 - 1 +8.6      +8.1 34 +0.5 152 76.4 28 +6.9 82 +9.9 2
89 Miami (OH) 30.4%   17 - 0 8 - 0 +6.4      +5.5 62 +0.9 138 74.2 54 +17.2 20 +16.3 1
129 Bowling Green 8.9%   10 - 6 4 - 3 +2.0      +0.4 151 +1.6 118 70.3 147 +1.7 133 +2.8 4
148 Kent St. 6.3%   12 - 5 5 - 2 +0.8      +3.2 97 -2.4 251 77.4 20 +3.2 115 +3.2 3
166 Toledo 3.8%   8 - 9 4 - 3 -0.6      +2.7 105 -3.3 274 70.5 138 -1.5 194 -0.9 5
176 Massachusetts 1.9%   11 - 8 3 - 5 -1.2      -1.6 215 +0.4 154 76.7 25 -2.0 208 -6.0 9
196 Ohio 1.8%   9 - 9 5 - 3 -2.4      -0.5 178 -1.9 236 73.7 65 -1.4 189 -0.9 6
198 Eastern Michigan 1.5%   8 - 10 3 - 4 -2.5      -2.7 246 +0.1 162 66.4 253 -2.4 209 -4.3 8
201 Buffalo 1.5%   11 - 6 3 - 4 -2.6      +1.7 123 -4.3 301 67.4 226 +0.3 158 -3.0 7
260 Western Michigan 0.2%   6 - 11 1 - 6 -5.5      -1.1 196 -4.3 303 69.0 177 -5.3 244 -10.7 12
296 Ball St. 0.1%   4 - 13 2 - 5 -7.7      -3.9 281 -3.7 285 62.5 339 -9.7 321 -6.3 10
318 Northern Illinois 0.0%   4 - 12 2 - 5 -9.7      -6.7 332 -3.0 269 71.0 121 -8.5 307 -8.6 11
322 Central Michigan 0.0%   3 - 14 1 - 6 -10.0      -4.9 302 -5.1 320 67.2 232 -11.8 335 -13.5 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Jan 20 176 Massachusetts 84 166 Toledo 82   
Tue, Jan 20 148 Kent St. 101 89 Miami (OH) 107   
Tue, Jan 20 318 Northern Illinois 77 196 Ohio 80   
Tue, Jan 20 296 Ball St. 68 322 Central Michigan 67   
Tue, Jan 20 129 Bowling Green 72 260 Western Michigan 54   
Tue, Jan 20 64 Akron 82 201 Buffalo 63   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 23 201 Buffalo 80 176 Massachusetts 78 56%   
Fri, Jan 23 64 Akron 89 196 Ohio 81 78%   
Sat, Jan 24 129 Bowling Green 77 166 Toledo 78 51%   
Sat, Jan 24 198 Eastern Michigan 78 148 Kent St. 79 51%   
Sat, Jan 24 296 Ball St. 72 318 Northern Illinois 67 69%   
Sat, Jan 24 322 Central Michigan 71 260 Western Michigan 79 76%   
Tue, Jan 27 148 Kent St. 88 196 Ohio 82 72%   
Tue, Jan 27 129 Bowling Green 80 201 Buffalo 73 77%   
Tue, Jan 27 176 Massachusetts 77 89 Miami (OH) 88 84%   
Tue, Jan 27 64 Akron 92 166 Toledo 80 87%   
Tue, Jan 27 318 Northern Illinois 74 260 Western Michigan 76 55%   
Tue, Jan 27 322 Central Michigan 68 198 Eastern Michigan 73 67%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Akron 1.6 50.2 45.5 3.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 1.3 69.6 27.8 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bowling Green 3.9 0.9 6.1 43.4 25.6 12.4 5.9 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kent St. 3.9 1.4 7.1 39.0 27.3 13.0 6.7 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Toledo 5.3 0.2 1.3 15.6 19.7 22.5 16.7 11.5 7.0 3.6 1.4 0.5 0.1
Massachusetts 7.5 0.1 1.3 4.4 10.1 14.8 18.5 19.1 16.5 9.7 4.2 1.1 0.1
Ohio 5.7 0.1 0.9 8.8 16.4 22.3 19.6 15.7 8.9 4.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 7.3 0.0 0.2 3.6 6.9 11.0 14.5 16.7 17.5 14.4 9.1 4.3 1.5 0.3
Buffalo 7.0 0.0 0.2 3.2 8.2 14.5 17.1 17.3 15.7 12.5 7.1 3.1 1.0 0.1
Western Michigan 10.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.2 7.6 12.8 19.0 23.0 18.3 11.8
Ball St. 9.8 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.7 6.7 10.8 16.2 20.6 19.4 13.6 5.9
Northern Illinois 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 5.1 10.0 16.9 22.6 26.6 14.5
Central Michigan 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.2 4.6 8.6 16.2 25.4 41.6

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 15 - 3 23 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 6.0 14.6 25.3 31.9 19.9
Miami (OH) 16 - 2 25 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.3 10.9 20.4 27.4 24.2 11.1
Bowling Green 11 - 7 18 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.3 8.0 15.2 22.1 23.2 17.1 8.1 1.6
Kent St. 11 - 7 19 - 10 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 8.9 16.5 22.6 21.9 15.7 7.6 2.1 0.2
Toledo 10 - 8 14 - 15 0.0 0.4 2.1 6.5 13.7 20.9 23.0 18.3 10.4 3.6 0.8 0.1
Massachusetts 8 - 10 16 - 14 0.1 1.3 5.4 13.6 22.4 24.8 18.8 9.7 3.3 0.5 0.1
Ohio 9 - 9 14 - 15 0.4 2.8 8.9 18.0 23.8 22.2 14.7 6.6 2.3 0.4 0.1
Eastern Michigan 8 - 10 13 - 17 0.2 1.7 6.0 12.6 19.7 21.6 18.6 12.0 5.4 2.0 0.4 0.0
Buffalo 8 - 10 17 - 12 0.1 0.8 3.7 10.0 17.9 22.4 21.2 14.3 7.1 2.2 0.4 0.0
Western Michigan 5 - 13 11 - 18 0.5 3.4 10.4 18.6 23.9 20.1 13.7 6.4 2.3 0.6 0.1
Ball St. 6 - 12 9 - 20 1.1 6.0 14.1 21.8 22.5 18.1 10.0 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.0
Northern Illinois 5 - 13 7 - 21 4.5 14.5 23.8 24.2 18.2 9.4 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Central Michigan 4 - 14 6 - 23 4.9 15.7 25.0 24.3 17.1 8.3 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 50.2% 29.3 20.1 0.7 0.1
Miami (OH) 69.6% 48.6 20.3 0.7 0.1
Bowling Green 0.9% 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
Kent St. 1.4% 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
Toledo 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Massachusetts
Ohio 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.0% 0.0
Buffalo 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan
Ball St.
Northern Illinois
Central Michigan


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 44.6% 44.5% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 15.2 24.3 3.9 0.3 55.4 0.1%
Miami (OH) 30.4% 29.4% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 13.7 14.8 0.9 0.0 69.6 1.3%
Bowling Green 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 3.1 3.8 1.4 0.3 91.1 0.0%
Kent St. 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 2.9 1.6 0.3 93.7 0.0%
Toledo 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.3 96.2 0.0%
Massachusetts 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 98.1 0.0%
Ohio 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.2 98.2 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 98.5 0.0%
Buffalo 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 98.5 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Ball St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.0 1.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.5 0.3
2nd Round 15.8% 0.2 84.2 15.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 44.6% 0.0% 44.5% 9.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 30.4% 0.9% 29.8% 4.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 8.9% 0.0% 8.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 6.3% 0.0% 6.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 3.8% 0.1% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 1.8% 0.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.5% 0.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%