Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
59 Akron 45.2%   12   8 - 3 1 - 0 22 - 6 15 - 3 +8.9      +9.8 17 -0.9 197 76.8 33 +5.8 94 +8.7 5
106 Miami (OH) 16.5%   10 - 0 1 - 0 21 - 5 12 - 5 +4.3      +4.3 75 0.0 162 73.8 66 +10.9 56 +10.0 4
117 Bowling Green 13.5%   7 - 3 1 - 0 18 - 9 12 - 6 +3.2      -0.9 189 +4.1 67 70.6 151 +3.3 125 +16.3 2
124 Kent St. 10.8%   8 - 2 1 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +2.4      +2.4 112 0.0 164 78.8 14 +4.3 107 +17.8 1
164 Massachusetts 4.2%   8 - 4 0 - 1 17 - 12 9 - 9 -0.4      -2.3 230 +1.9 111 77.0 31 -0.2 168 -15.8 11
170 Toledo 3.9%   4 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 8 -0.7      +2.8 105 -3.5 293 71.7 118 -1.7 191 0.0 7
189 Ohio 2.3%   4 - 7 0 - 1 13 - 15 9 - 9 -1.9      -0.2 171 -1.6 220 73.1 83 -2.4 201 -15.0 10
196 Buffalo 2.2%   9 - 2 1 - 0 17 - 11 9 - 9 -2.3      +1.7 123 -4.0 311 66.6 259 +4.3 106 +11.9 3
216 Eastern Michigan 1.3%   5 - 7 0 - 1 13 - 16 8 - 10 -3.5      -3.0 252 -0.5 181 66.6 258 -1.2 182 -3.3 8
280 Western Michigan 0.3%   5 - 6 0 - 1 11 - 17 6 - 12 -6.3      -1.9 219 -4.4 319 69.7 177 -4.2 233 -20.5 12
306 Ball St. 0.1%   2 - 9 0 - 1 7 - 21 5 - 13 -8.2      -5.5 321 -2.7 266 64.3 313 -13.1 340 -13.9 9
323 Central Michigan 0.0%   2 - 9 0 - 1 6 - 22 4 - 14 -9.8      -4.1 281 -5.7 339 66.6 260 -12.2 334 -22.1 13
328 Northern Illinois 0.0%   3 - 7 1 - 0 7 - 20 5 - 13 -9.9      -4.1 280 -5.8 340 71.3 131 -6.8 267 +2.4 6




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 124 Kent St. 69 164 Massachusetts 59   
Sat, Dec 20 117 Bowling Green 68 189 Ohio 58   
Sat, Dec 20 196 Buffalo 88 280 Western Michigan 71   
Sat, Dec 20 323 Central Michigan 73 328 Northern Illinois 74   
Sat, Dec 20 306 Ball St. 77 106 Miami (OH) 86   
Mon, Dec 22 216 Eastern Michigan 64 153 Wright St. 70   
Mon, Dec 22 323 Central Michigan 61 46 Wisconsin 88   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Akron 1.5 71.8 17.5 6.3 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (OH) 3.6 11.7 23.5 21.2 15.9 10.8 7.0 4.8 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Bowling Green 3.4 16.6 25.5 19.0 14.2 9.7 6.3 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Kent St. 3.5 14.4 22.3 20.3 15.6 11.0 7.0 4.4 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Massachusetts 6.0 1.6 6.0 9.7 13.0 14.5 14.2 12.5 10.4 7.8 5.3 3.0 1.5 0.5
Toledo 5.9 2.1 6.7 9.9 12.7 14.3 14.6 12.7 10.2 7.4 4.8 2.8 1.3 0.5
Ohio 6.7 1.0 3.8 7.4 10.3 12.8 13.5 13.8 12.4 10.0 7.0 4.5 2.5 1.0
Buffalo 6.3 1.6 4.7 8.2 11.3 13.5 14.6 13.9 12.0 8.8 5.8 3.4 1.6 0.5
Eastern Michigan 7.8 0.4 1.8 3.5 6.1 8.5 10.9 13.2 14.2 14.0 11.0 8.6 5.2 2.7
Western Michigan 9.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.1 6.7 9.8 13.2 16.4 17.4 15.6 12.2
Ball St. 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.7 8.6 12.2 15.7 17.2 16.9 16.1
Central Michigan 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.3 9.0 13.0 17.3 21.9 27.6
Northern Illinois 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0 5.2 7.5 11.2 15.1 19.1 20.5 15.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Akron 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.6 9.2 15.8 21.1 22.6 16.9 6.6
Miami (OH) 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.9 4.2 7.2 10.9 15.2 17.3 17.0 13.4 7.9 3.3 0.7
Bowling Green 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.5 6.2 10.0 13.2 16.0 16.3 14.2 9.9 5.4 2.0 0.5
Kent St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.8 7.1 11.0 14.8 16.8 15.9 13.2 8.4 4.0 1.4 0.2
Massachusetts 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.6 6.5 9.9 13.7 15.6 15.8 13.5 9.5 5.7 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
Toledo 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.3 6.2 9.9 13.4 15.6 15.7 13.4 9.7 6.2 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.0
Ohio 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.2 8.7 12.5 14.9 15.9 14.3 10.8 7.2 3.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Buffalo 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.1 7.6 11.5 15.0 16.4 15.0 12.2 8.0 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
Eastern Michigan 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 5.7 9.6 13.2 15.6 15.5 13.7 10.5 6.2 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 6 - 12 0.3 1.9 5.6 10.7 15.0 17.0 16.5 13.3 9.6 5.4 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 5 - 13 0.5 2.9 6.9 12.0 16.3 17.0 15.8 12.1 8.2 4.6 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan 4 - 14 1.5 5.8 12.0 17.3 19.0 16.7 12.6 7.9 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Illinois 5 - 13 2.1 7.3 13.8 18.4 18.1 15.2 11.4 6.9 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Akron 71.8% 57.1 12.2 2.2 0.3 0.0
Miami (OH) 11.7% 5.5 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
Bowling Green 16.6% 9.1 5.8 1.5 0.2 0.0
Kent St. 14.4% 7.7 5.0 1.4 0.2 0.0
Massachusetts 1.6% 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Toledo 2.1% 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Ohio 1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Buffalo 1.6% 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Michigan 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ball St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Michigan
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Akron 45.2% 45.0% 0.1% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0 10.2 23.8 7.9 0.7 0.0 54.8 0.3%
Miami (OH) 16.5% 16.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.8 8.7 4.7 0.9 0.1 83.5 0.1%
Bowling Green 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.6 5.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 86.5 0.0%
Kent St. 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 89.2 0.0%
Massachusetts 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 95.8 0.0%
Toledo 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.2 96.1 0.0%
Ohio 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.2 97.7 0.0%
Buffalo 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 97.8 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 98.7 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%
Ball St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Akron 45.2% 0.1% 45.1% 11.1% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 16.5% 0.1% 16.4% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 13.5% 0.0% 13.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kent St. 10.8% 0.0% 10.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 4.2% 0.0% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 3.9% 0.1% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 2.3% 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buffalo 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Michigan 1.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.7 0.1
2nd Round 16.6% 0.2 83.4 16.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0