Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.4 87
Expected Predictive Rating +17.8 21
Pace 73.7 56
Improvement +1.6 121

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #60 A- D+ B- B- C+
Defense C #148 C- B C+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 196 69% 11 +3.8 58
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 255 39% 129 -1.2 242
Three Pointers 45% 97 37% 51 +4.3 46
1st FG Attempt 1.16 26 +6.9 26
Second Chance 24.0% 341 1.11 66 0.27 271
Turnovers 15.7% 104
Freethrows 0.32 132 78% 19 0.25 83
Total Offense +5.8 60

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 233 62% 295 -0.6 196
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 136 42% 318 -1.4 293
Three Pointers 42% 159 34% 169 -0.1 188
1st FG Attempt 1.06 247 -2.1 245
Second Chance 29.7% 146 0.86 12 0.25 50
Turnovers 17.8% 127
Freethrows 0.28 119 76% 342 0.22 168
Total Defense +0.6 148

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.4 129 -0.2 122
Shot Type Accuracy +6.2 23 +2.3 273
Possession Length 16.2 73 17.0 134
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 221 0.15 114
Improvement +1.0 #127 +0.6 #144

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33% 35% 26%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2% 2% 1%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 75% 79% 50%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round33% 34% 26%
Second Round5% 5% 3%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Ohio (Home) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 02 - 0
Quad 310 - 212 - 2
Quad 416 - 028 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 253 Old Dominion W 87 - 72 90% -3  34% 1 - 0 B- +7 C+ +2 A- F D+ B- +4 F A- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 349 @Air Force W 76 - 61 92% +10  99% 2 - 0 B- +5 C+ +2 A- F+ D+ B +4 B B D-
 Thu, Nov 20 304 Mercyhurst W 76 - 71 94% +5  95% 3 - 0 D+ -6 C+ +2 C+ D- B- D- -8 F C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 313 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111 - 84 95% +16  88% 4 - 0 A- +15 A +13 A+ F A C- -2 A F F
 Wed, Nov 26 302 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 71 91% -1  37% 5 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -2 C F C- B +5 C+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 338 Maine W 93 - 61 96% +21  99% 6 - 0 A- +17 A +13 B+ A+ D- B- +4 D+ D- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 211 @UNC Asheville W 90 - 87 OT 73% +6  70% 7 - 0 C+ +3 B +6 B F A+ C- -3 F+ B D
 Sat, Dec 13 267 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 69 81% +9  91% 8 - 0 B- +7 C+ +2 C+ C+ B B +5 C+ B+ B+
 Tue, Dec 16 150 @Wright St. W 83 - 76 61% +8  96% 9 - 0 B +11 B +5 A+ F B B +5 B A D
 Sat, Dec 20 310 @Ball St. W 86 - 77 87% +3  67% 10 - 0 1 - 0 C+ +3 A- +10 B+ D- D+ D -7 F A F
 Tue, Dec 30 158 @Bowling Green W 93 - 83 64% +13  82% 11 - 0 2 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +14 A+ B+ D C- -2 D C C
 Sat, Jan 3 72 Akron W 76 - 73 56% -1  34% 12 - 0 3 - 0 B- +8 C- -1 F A D A- +9 A C A
 Tue, Jan 6 295 Western Michigan W 87 - 76 93% +6  90% 13 - 0 4 - 0 C +0 C- -1 B- C- F C+ +0 C A D
 Fri, Jan 9 165 @Toledo W 87 - 73 64% +17  99% 14 - 0 5 - 0 A- +17 A- +11 A C- A B +6 B A C
 Tue, Jan 13 296 Central Michigan W 100 - 61 94% +17  98% 15 - 0 6 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +18 A+ B- B+ A +10 C+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 202 Buffalo W 105 - 102 OT 87% -0  44% 16 - 0 7 - 0 C- -3 B +7 A+ F A F+ -10 F A B-
 Tue, Jan 20 147 @Kent St. W 107 - 101 OT 60% +6  79% 17 - 0 8 - 0 B +10 A+ +16 A+ F A+ D- -7 F+ D C+
 Tue, Jan 27 183 Massachusetts W 86 - 84 84% -3  15% 18 - 0 9 - 0 C- -2 A +12 C- A+ A- F -14 F D- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 314 Northern Illinois W 85 - 61 95% +3  49% 19 - 0 10 - 0 B+ +12 C+ +2 B- F A A- +8 D+ A+ C+
 Tue, Feb 3 202 @Buffalo W 73 - 71 72% +4  81% 20 - 0 11 - 0 C+ +2 D+ -3 A- F D+ B +5 D- A+ A
 Sat, Feb 7 164 @Marshall W 90 - 74 64% +13  99% 21 - 0 A +19 A+ +14 A A+ D+ B +4 B- B+ D
 Fri, Feb 13 199 Ohio W 88 - 76 87%
 Tue, Feb 17 183 @Massachusetts W 86 - 81 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 158 Bowling Green W 83 - 73 82%
 Tue, Feb 24 231 @Eastern Michigan W 80 - 73 76%
 Fri, Feb 27 295 @Western Michigan W 88 - 77 85%
 Tue, Mar 3 165 Toledo W 88 - 78 82%
 Fri, Mar 6 199 @Ohio W 85 - 79 71%
Totals 26 - 2 16 - 2 +6 B +6 A- D+ B- C +1 C- B C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B A- C+ B A- 38% 17% 45% C+ A- D- B- D+ B- C+ B+ B- C D+ D C D+ 37% 22% 42% C+ C- C+ A- B C+ C+ D- C
1.17 69% 39% 37% +6 0 1.16 24% 1.1 .27 16% .32 78% .25 1.08 62% 42% 34% +2 0 1.06 30% 0.9 .25 18% .28 76% .24
Nov
3		 Old Dominion C+ A- D+ D+ B+ 55% 6% 39% A+ A- D F F D+ A A A+ B- C+ D+ F F 33% 27% 41% C F A B- A- A+ C F D+
1.16 71% 33% 30% +5 +3 1.18 25% 0.6 .16 16% .43 81% .35 0.96 56% 38% 45% +6 -1 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 25% .29 81% .23
Nov
15		 Air Force C+ D+ A+ A A 26% 20% 54% D+ A- C F F+ D+ F F F B A+ F B+ B+ 48% 15% 37% D+ B A- D B D- F C F+
1.14 57% 64% 41% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.6 .19 16% .09 60% .05 0.91 41% 57% 29% -8 +1 0.89 17% 1.2 .19 18% .40 64% .25
Nov
20		 Mercyhurst C+ A+ F F C+ 42% 18% 40% C- C+ F+ C- D- B- A+ A+ A+ D- F F D+ F 28% 28% 45% C- F D- A- C B- D B- D+
1.16 74% 25% 28% +1 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 17% .57 84% .48 1.08 69% 54% 33% +7 -2 1.13 31% 0.9 .28 18% .24 69% .17
Nov
23		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A B B- A+ A+ 56% 9% 35% A A+ F C F A A- A+ A+ C- A+ C- A- A+ 44% 21% 34% D- A C+ F F F D F F
1.36 66% 40% 50% +13 +3 1.33 24% 1.1 .28 11% .44 88% .39 1.03 41% 38% 29% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.6 .38 13% .35 84% .30
Nov
26		 UNC Greensboro D+ A+ C+ D- C 33% 9% 58% B C F F F C- B A A- B B- D+ B+ B- 33% 22% 46% C C+ D F F A+ F F+ F
1.14 78% 40% 31% +4 +1 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 14% .31 79% .24 0.99 53% 40% 29% -5 -1 0.91 30% 1.3 .39 24% .45 76% .35
Dec
6		 Maine A C F+ A+ B 39% 14% 47% B- B+ A+ A+ A+ D- F A+ D+ B- C+ A- D D+ 40% 22% 38% C D+ C- F D- A+ B+ B- B+
1.31 60% 29% 42% +5 +1 1.14 50% 1.5 .74 21% .23 85% .20 0.86 56% 30% 35% -2 0 0.98 21% 1.3 .27 28% .25 62% .16
Dec
10		 UNC Asheville B A D+ B+ A- 36% 22% 41% D B F A+ F A+ C+ A- B- C- D D F F 29% 34% 36% D+ F+ A+ F B D C+ F D+
1.15 71% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 12% 1.3 .15 6% .33 75% .25 1.12 65% 45% 43% +9 -2 1.16 10% 2.3 .24 15% .33 77% .26
Dec
13		 Eastern Kentucky C+ B C+ B C+ 38% 20% 43% C C+ F A+ C+ B F F F B B B D C- 13% 31% 56% A+ C+ F A+ B+ B+ F D- F
1.17 67% 45% 38% +7 0 1.16 23% 1.6 .35 13% .15 33% .05 1.02 50% 33% 37% 0 -3 0.96 43% 0.7 .30 21% .41 77% .32
Dec
16		 Wright St. B A+ F A+ A+ 48% 15% 38% B+ A+ F F F B A+ F A- B F B A+ B 46% 21% 32% C- B C+ A+ A D F+ F+ F
1.15 74% 14% 56% +16 +1 1.38 10% 0.0 .00 15% .46 61% .28 1.05 69% 33% 17% -4 0 0.95 31% 0.8 .23 14% .38 79% .30
Dec
20		 Ball St. A- D+ F A+ A- 33% 21% 46% C B+ F A+ D- D+ A+ A+ A+ D F F C F 35% 30% 35% A- F A+ B A F C F C-
1.23 56% 20% 55% +10 0 1.21 20% 1.4 .28 20% .39 95% .38 1.10 68% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.11 13% 0.8 .09 10% .29 78% .22
Dec
30		 Bowling Green A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 44% 17% 40% C+ A+ B- A B+ D A A+ A+ C- F F A+ D- 47% 18% 35% C+ D C C C C D- B D
1.23 67% 50% 47% +14 +1 1.31 31% 1.3 .38 21% .40 92% .37 1.10 69% 50% 26% +4 +1 1.11 28% 0.8 .22 17% .37 70% .26
Jan
3		 Akron C- C+ F F F 25% 10% 65% C F D+ A+ A D A+ A+ A+ A- D+ B+ A+ A+ 32% 11% 57% C A C+ C- C A A- F B
1.06 58% 20% 26% -10 0 0.83 31% 1.5 .47 21% .53 83% .44 1.02 65% 33% 27% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.3 .43 21% .18 90% .16
Jan
6		 Western Michigan C- A+ C F B- 43% 11% 47% B B- B- F+ C- F A+ A A+ C+ C F A+ B- 52% 19% 30% F C C A+ A D F+ C- F+
1.18 80% 40% 27% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 19% .57 79% .45 1.03 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.96 30% 0.6 .19 15% .35 73% .25
Jan
9		 Toledo A- A A+ A A+ 39% 13% 48% C+ A F+ A- C- A F A+ F+ B A B+ F C+ 28% 41% 31% A+ B C- A+ A C D- F F
1.25 73% 57% 41% +13 +1 1.30 28% 1.1 .31 14% .13 88% .12 1.05 47% 36% 47% +2 -3 1.00 30% 0.6 .18 16% .34 85% .29
Jan
13		 Central Michigan A+ A A+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% C- A+ F A+ B- B+ A+ A+ A+ A B- D B C 33% 35% 33% A- C+ C+ A+ A+ B+ B+ B- B+
1.43 72% 50% 48% +17 0 1.37 24% 2.0 .48 13% .46 89% .41 0.87 53% 44% 29% -2 -2 0.94 26% 0.4 .11 21% .22 67% .15
Jan
17		 Buffalo B A+ F A+ A+ 48% 10% 43% B+ A+ F F+ F A A F B- F+ D+ F F F 35% 25% 40% A- F B A+ A B- C+ F D+
1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22 1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28
Jan
20		 Kent St. A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 40% 15% 45% B- A+ D- F F A+ A+ F A- D- F+ D- C+ D- 43% 13% 45% D- F+ F B D C+ F F+ F
1.30 84% 67% 32% +13 +1 1.31 24% 0.7 .16 7% .44 65% .29 1.23 67% 43% 32% +3 +1 1.11 44% 1.0 .44 19% .47 81% .38
Jan
27		 Massachusetts A C- A C- C- 27% 9% 64% C+ C- B A+ A+ A- A+ B- A+ F D F F F 27% 33% 39% A+ F D D+ D- F+ B F C
1.28 58% 50% 32% 0 +1 1.02 33% 1.7 .58 13% .65 74% .48 1.25 64% 53% 40% +10 -2 1.18 36% 1.3 .45 15% .30 76% .23
Jan
31		 Northern Illinois C+ A- A+ F B- 42% 12% 46% C+ B- D+ F F A D+ A C A- F C A D 39% 16% 45% B- D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ B A+ A
1.16 71% 71% 27% +5 +1 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 12% .31 80% .25 0.83 70% 38% 26% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.5 .09 23% .30 53% .16
Feb
3		 Buffalo D+ A+ A+ D- A 43% 20% 37% C- A- F F F D+ F F F B F C+ F+ F+ 35% 17% 48% C+ D- F A+ A+ A C D C-
1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05 1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Marshall A+ A+ F A A 40% 23% 36% C+ A A- A+ A+ D+ C+ B+ B B F A A+ B+ 32% 20% 48% D B- F A+ B+ D D+ A+ B-
1.28 79% 18% 41% +8 0 1.17 41% 1.6 .66 18% .37 76% .28 1.05 78% 27% 26% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.7 .28 16% .29 59% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.5 17.4 34.2 20.1 75.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 3.8 9.8 9.7 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.3 13.3 27.1 34.2 20.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 20.1    20.1
17-1 100.0% 34.2    21.6 12.6
16-2 64.2% 17.4    6.8 10.6
15-3 26.1% 3.5    0.7 2.4 0.3
14-4 4.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 75.4% 75.4 49.3 25.7 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 20.1% 42.6% 39.5% 3.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.0 2.2 0.0 11.6 5.1%
17-1 34.2% 34.1% 32.9% 1.2% 11.5 0.0 5.6 6.0 0.1 22.6 1.7%
16-2 27.1% 32.0% 31.7% 0.3% 11.8 2.5 5.8 0.4 18.4 0.4%
15-3 13.3% 24.9% 24.7% 0.2% 11.9 0.6 2.5 0.2 10.0 0.3%
14-4 4.3% 23.5% 23.5% 12.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 3.3
13-5 0.9% 19.4% 19.4% 12.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.4% 32.3% 1.1% 11.6 66.6 1.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.0% 100.0% 11.2 0.3 1.6 2.4 68.2 27.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.6% 5.4% 11.0 5.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.8% 4.5% 11.0 4.5