Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.9 #334
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 #303
Pace 77.2 #22
Improvement +2.2 #83

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #310 C- D- D- C C-
Defense #327 D+ F D+ F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #163 1.12 #214 -0.5 #196
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #97 0.69 #274 +0.8 #133
Three Pointers 37% #278 1.02 #176 -2.2 #268
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #234 -1.9 #231
Freethrows 16.6 #229 75% #92 12.5 #191
Second Chance 26.0% #302 0.94 #318 0.24 #326
Turnovers 18.6% #306
Total Offense -5.4 #310

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #54 1.20 #237 -3.6 #304
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #335 0.61 #17 +3.3 #3
Three Pointers 42% #147 1.08 #266 -1.8 #268
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #247 -2.2 #246
Freethrows 23.0 #356 73% #180 16.7 #354
Second Chance 35.1% #326 1.12 #278 0.39 #327
Turnovers 14.8% #282
Total Defense -5.5 #327

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #254 2.2% #348
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.8% #219 2.0% #216
Possession Length 16.3 #79 16.8 #94
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #133 0.14 #76
Improvement +1.1 #118 +1.1 #110

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 6.7% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.7% 5.7% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 49.6% 74.7% 43.5%
Conference Champion 1.8% 6.2% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.6% 6.3% 3.0%
First Round1.9% 3.5% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Away) - 19.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 31 - 31 - 10
Quad 49 - 910 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 47 @Washington L 50 - 94 2% -21  0 - 1 -30 -19 F F F -9 D F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 210 @Portland L 74 - 83 16% -14  0 - 2 -9 -9 F C- F +1 B- B+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 155 @Loyola Marymount L 72 - 94 10% -9  0 - 3 -19 +3 A F F -22 F C F
 Tue, Nov 11 57 @Oklahoma L 69 - 95 2% -10  0 - 4 -13 +1 D+ D+ F -14 C- F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 21 @Vanderbilt L 75 - 104 1% -16  0 - 5 -9 +6 C D C+ -13 A- F F
 Tue, Nov 18 29 @SMU L 60 - 106 1% -25  0 - 6 -29 -15 D- F F -8 F A+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 163 @Marshall L 70 - 98 11% -5  0 - 7 -25 -8 F D F -14 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 89 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 111 4% -20  0 - 8 -18 +2 F C- A -15 F C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 151 @Illinois-Chicago W 63 - 62 10% +5  1 - 8 +5 -8 C D+ D- +13 A+ A- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 99 @DePaul L 72 - 76 5% +1  1 - 9 +4 +2 A+ F F +3 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 10 70 @Tulsa L 84 - 117 3% -16  1 - 10 -22 +5 A+ C F -24 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 301 Alabama A&M W 95 - 83 50% +4  2 - 10 1 - 0 +1 +27 A+ A+ C+ -25 D F C-
 Mon, Jan 5 311 Alabama St. W 90 - 79 53% +6  3 - 10 2 - 0 -1 +5 B F F -7 C- C F
 Sat, Jan 10 335 @Texas Southern W 74 - 66 39% +8  4 - 10 3 - 0 -0 -2 B- F C +2 B+ C+ D
 Mon, Jan 12 317 @Prairie View L 61 - 73 34% -6  4 - 11 3 - 1 -19 -14 F F F -5 D- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 313 Florida A&M L 67 - 71 55% -1  4 - 12 3 - 2 -16 -6 F C+ F -10 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 269 Bethune-Cookman L 82 - 87 OT 43% +2  4 - 13 3 - 3 -14 -4 C F F -9 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 246 @Southern L 75 - 84 19%
 Tue, Jan 27 287 @Grambling St. L 73 - 80 27%
 Sat, Jan 31 365 @Mississippi Valley W 79 - 69 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 347 Alcorn St. W 81 - 77 66%
 Mon, Feb 9 325 Jackson St. W 84 - 82 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 311 @Alabama St. L 78 - 83 31%
 Mon, Feb 16 301 @Alabama A&M L 72 - 78 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 335 Texas Southern W 82 - 79 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 317 Prairie View W 83 - 81 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 82 - 66 94%
 Tue, Mar 3 325 @Jackson St. L 81 - 85 37%
 Thu, Mar 5 347 @Alcorn St. L 78 - 80 44%
Totals 10 - 19 9 - 8 -11 -5 C- D- D- -5 D+ F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.8 1st
2nd 0.4 2.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 3.7 0.6 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.4 1.7 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.1 6.1 4.9 0.3 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 8.9 1.1 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.6 7.7 4.7 0.1 13.0 7th
8th 0.1 3.8 8.5 0.6 0.0 13.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 6.8 3.1 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.2 4.3 0.3 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.7 0.7 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 3.0 8.5 16.2 22.2 21.6 15.6 8.6 3.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 91.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 66.4% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 30.3% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.7% 11.0% 11.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7
12-6 3.0% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 0.4 2.6
11-7 8.6% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.6 8.0
10-8 15.6% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 1.0 14.5
9-9 21.6% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 1.0 20.6
8-10 22.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.6 21.6
7-11 16.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.2
6-12 8.5% 8.5
5-13 3.0% 3.0
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 16.0 96.2 0.0%