Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#221
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#194
Pace69.8#154
Improvement+3.0#28

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#296
First Shot-1.8#229
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#316
Layup/Dunks+2.6#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#240
Freethrows-0.9#241
Improvement+0.5#134

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#124
First Shot+4.5#53
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#346
Layups/Dunks+1.3#119
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#232
Freethrows+1.5#79
Improvement+2.5#21
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.6% 37.6% 30.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 79.6% 90.3% 74.4%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 98.2% 96.2%
Conference Champion 47.7% 54.8% 44.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four9.5% 7.1% 10.7%
First Round27.9% 34.0% 24.9%
Second Round0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 31 - 22 - 7
Quad 416 - 617 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 235   @ South Dakota L 79-93 43%     0 - 1 -15.0 -8.6 -4.9
  Nov 07, 2024 44   @ Iowa L 74-89 7%     0 - 2 -1.1 +2.4 -2.9
  Nov 13, 2024 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 68-70 74%     0 - 3 -11.6 -8.6 -3.0
  Nov 20, 2024 25   @ Texas A&M L 54-71 4%     0 - 4 -0.2 -5.5 +4.1
  Nov 30, 2024 101   @ Louisiana Tech W 73-70 15%     1 - 4 +11.1 +4.1 +7.0
  Dec 07, 2024 251   @ Tulsa W 70-66 46%     2 - 4 +2.1 +1.3 +1.1
  Dec 17, 2024 27   @ Mississippi L 61-74 5%     2 - 5 +3.3 -7.3 +11.1
  Dec 20, 2024 181   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-69 33%    
  Dec 22, 2024 76   @ USC L 64-77 11%    
  Dec 30, 2024 53   @ Nebraska L 62-78 7%    
  Jan 04, 2025 305   @ Texas Southern W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 06, 2025 338   @ Prairie View W 81-76 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 357   Florida A&M W 74-61 89%    
  Jan 13, 2025 264   Bethune-Cookman W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 18, 2025 310   Grambling St. W 71-62 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83-72 85%    
  Jan 27, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 72-57 92%    
  Feb 01, 2025 339   Alcorn St. W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 03, 2025 307   Jackson St. W 73-65 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 361   @ Alabama A&M W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 10, 2025 284   @ Alabama St. W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 338   Prairie View W 84-73 84%    
  Feb 17, 2025 305   Texas Southern W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 22, 2025 310   @ Grambling St. W 68-65 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 264   @ Bethune-Cookman L 68-69 49%    
  Mar 03, 2025 357   @ Florida A&M W 71-64 74%    
  Mar 06, 2025 284   Alabama St. W 75-68 73%    
  Mar 08, 2025 361   Alabama A&M W 80-65 91%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.7 9.6 13.6 11.7 6.5 2.1 47.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.4 7.4 5.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.3 3.3 0.7 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.7 8.6 11.9 14.8 16.2 15.6 11.9 6.5 2.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
17-1 100.0% 6.5    6.4 0.1
16-2 97.6% 11.7    10.7 0.9 0.0
15-3 87.0% 13.6    10.1 3.3 0.2
14-4 59.4% 9.6    4.7 4.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 24.9% 3.7    0.8 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.7% 47.7 34.9 10.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.1% 64.4% 64.4% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7
17-1 6.5% 54.3% 54.3% 14.2 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.2 0.1 3.0
16-2 11.9% 47.9% 47.9% 14.7 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.8 1.0 6.2
15-3 15.6% 42.6% 42.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.9 9.0
14-4 16.2% 35.0% 35.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 10.5
13-5 14.8% 28.4% 28.4% 15.9 0.0 0.5 3.7 10.6
12-6 11.9% 22.5% 22.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.6 9.2
11-7 8.6% 17.1% 17.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 7.2
10-8 5.7% 14.6% 14.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8 4.9
9-9 3.4% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.3 3.1
8-10 1.8% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.1 1.7
7-11 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 32.6% 32.6% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.7 9.1 16.8 67.4 0.0%