Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#201
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#217
Pace78.1#23
Improvement-0.1#196

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#247
First Shot-4.3#297
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#105
Layup/Dunks+0.6#165
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#271
Freethrows-1.0#232
Improvement-1.7#311

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#157
First Shot+0.0#167
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#153
Layups/Dunks+1.3#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#84
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#284
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement+1.7#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.7% 37.7% 25.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 14.6 15.3
.500 or above 60.3% 84.6% 58.7%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 96.0% 92.3%
Conference Champion 46.3% 61.6% 45.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.8% 2.9% 7.1%
First Round23.1% 36.2% 22.2%
Second Round0.6% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas (Away) - 6.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 31 - 9
Quad 415 - 616 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 22 @Arkansas L 77-109 4%     0 - 1 -14.0 +2.2 -11.8
  Wed, Nov 5 83 @Marquette L 82-100 13%     0 - 2 -8.1 +5.4 -11.4
  Tue, Nov 18 57 @Washington L 93-99 2OT 9%     0 - 3 +6.4 +2.5 +5.4
  Fri, Nov 21 185 @San Jose St. L 66-80 36%     0 - 4 -12.8 -6.1 -6.7
  Sat, Nov 29 302 @Northwestern St. W 75-73 59%     1 - 4 -2.8 -0.9 -1.9
  Mon, Dec 8 50 @Texas L 70-86 6%    
  Wed, Dec 10 232 @Texas St. L 71-72 45%    
  Tue, Dec 16 130 @California Baptist L 68-76 24%    
  Sun, Dec 21 28 @Baylor L 72-91 4%    
  Mon, Dec 29 17 @Illinois L 69-92 2%    
  Wed, Dec 31 333 @Alcorn St. W 80-75 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 296 Texas Southern W 82-74 76%    
  Mon, Jan 5 322 Prairie View W 83-73 81%    
  Sat, Jan 10 345 @Florida A&M W 80-74 70%    
  Mon, Jan 12 218 @Bethune-Cookman L 75-77 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 284 @Grambling St. W 73-72 54%    
  Sat, Jan 24 358 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 87-72 90%    
  Mon, Jan 26 365 Mississippi Valley W 86-63 98%    
  Sat, Jan 31 333 @Alcorn St. W 80-75 67%    
  Mon, Feb 2 312 @Jackson St. W 76-73 60%    
  Sat, Feb 7 266 Alabama A&M W 76-70 71%    
  Mon, Feb 9 268 Alabama St. W 80-74 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 322 @Prairie View W 80-76 63%    
  Mon, Feb 16 296 @Texas Southern W 79-77 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 284 Grambling St. W 76-69 73%    
  Thu, Feb 26 345 Florida A&M W 83-71 84%    
  Sat, Feb 28 218 Bethune-Cookman W 78-74 64%    
  Tue, Mar 3 268 @Alabama St. W 77-76 51%    
  Thu, Mar 5 266 @Alabama A&M W 73-72 51%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 5.1 9.9 11.3 9.2 5.7 2.9 45.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 4.7 6.4 3.8 0.9 0.2 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 3.6 1.2 0.1 7.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.2 1.2 0.1 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.3 0.1 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.1 3.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.3 5.1 7.8 10.0 12.2 13.4 13.9 12.3 9.3 5.7 2.9 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
17-1 100.0% 5.7    5.7 0.0
16-2 98.3% 9.2    8.7 0.4
15-3 92.5% 11.3    9.3 2.0 0.1
14-4 71.1% 9.9    5.7 3.6 0.6 0.0
13-5 38.2% 5.1    1.6 2.3 1.1 0.1
12-6 11.2% 1.4    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.6% 45.6 34.0 8.8 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.9% 56.9% 56.9% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.2
17-1 5.7% 49.8% 49.8% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.2 2.9
16-2 9.3% 43.8% 43.8% 14.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 0.8 5.2
15-3 12.3% 35.1% 35.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.7 8.0
14-4 13.9% 29.7% 29.7% 15.4 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.2 9.8
13-5 13.4% 24.4% 24.4% 15.7 0.1 0.8 2.3 10.1
12-6 12.2% 18.5% 18.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 9.9
11-7 10.0% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.0 1.5 8.4
10-8 7.8% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.9 6.8
9-9 5.1% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.5 4.7
8-10 3.3% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.2 3.1
7-11 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.8
6-12 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.1 1.0 3.9 8.3 12.4 74.3 0.0%