Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#224
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#161
Pace70.9#106
Improvement+1.7#108

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#315
First Shot-5.6#324
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#157
Layup/Dunks+2.3#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#336
Freethrows-0.9#241
Improvement+0.0#183

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#127
First Shot+3.0#88
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#288
Layups/Dunks+3.6#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#312
Freethrows+0.4#149
Improvement+1.6#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.0% 34.8% 31.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 98.6% 99.5% 95.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 83.8% 88.1% 69.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.7% 5.6% 10.2%
First Round30.7% 32.0% 26.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 76.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 31 - 11 - 7
Quad 418 - 519 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 262   @ South Dakota L 79-93 49%     0 - 1 -17.2 -9.7 -5.9
  Nov 07, 2024 60   @ Iowa L 74-89 8%     0 - 2 -3.1 +0.3 -2.8
  Nov 13, 2024 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 68-70 71%     0 - 3 -11.3 -8.4 -2.9
  Nov 20, 2024 19   @ Texas A&M L 54-71 3%     0 - 4 +1.4 -5.1 +5.3
  Nov 30, 2024 113   @ Louisiana Tech W 73-70 19%     1 - 4 +8.7 +2.7 +6.0
  Dec 07, 2024 238   @ Tulsa W 70-66 44%     2 - 4 +2.0 +2.0 +0.2
  Dec 17, 2024 26   @ Mississippi L 61-74 4%     2 - 5 +4.1 -4.9 +9.4
  Dec 20, 2024 136   @ Loyola Marymount L 73-89 24%     2 - 6 -12.0 +5.2 -17.5
  Dec 22, 2024 54   @ USC L 51-82 8%     2 - 7 -18.6 -19.2 +2.3
  Dec 30, 2024 48   @ Nebraska L 43-77 7%     2 - 8 -20.9 -20.0 -2.7
  Jan 04, 2025 274   @ Texas Southern W 67-58 51%     3 - 8 1 - 0 +5.2 -5.1 +10.3
  Jan 06, 2025 348   @ Prairie View W 84-80 73%     4 - 8 2 - 0 -5.9 -2.9 -3.5
  Jan 11, 2025 340   Florida A&M W 91-57 84%     5 - 8 3 - 0 +19.9 +16.1 +5.5
  Jan 13, 2025 279   Bethune-Cookman W 69-53 70%     6 - 8 4 - 0 +7.0 -8.3 +14.4
  Jan 18, 2025 339   Grambling St. W 67-60 84%     7 - 8 5 - 0 -7.1 -8.5 +1.6
  Jan 25, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83-67 88%     8 - 8 6 - 0 -0.3 -5.4 +4.1
  Jan 27, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 63-42 95%     9 - 8 7 - 0 -1.6 -10.7 +11.9
  Feb 01, 2025 320   Alcorn St. W 74-69 79%     10 - 8 8 - 0 -6.9 -4.9 -2.1
  Feb 03, 2025 284   Jackson St. W 91-89 OT 71%     11 - 8 9 - 0 -7.2 +3.0 -10.5
  Feb 08, 2025 360   @ Alabama A&M W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 10, 2025 308   @ Alabama St. W 72-69 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 348   Prairie View W 80-69 87%    
  Feb 17, 2025 274   Texas Southern W 72-67 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 339   @ Grambling St. W 68-62 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 279   @ Bethune-Cookman W 69-68 51%    
  Mar 03, 2025 340   @ Florida A&M W 73-67 68%    
  Mar 06, 2025 308   Alabama St. W 74-66 78%    
  Mar 08, 2025 360   Alabama A&M W 79-66 90%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 9.0 21.4 26.8 18.7 6.6 83.8 1st
2nd 0.5 3.6 5.5 2.2 0.3 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.2 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.4 14.7 23.6 27.2 18.7 6.6 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 6.6    6.6
17-1 100.0% 18.7    18.6 0.1
16-2 98.9% 26.8    24.9 1.9
15-3 90.7% 21.4    15.6 5.6 0.3
14-4 61.1% 9.0    3.4 4.2 1.4 0.1
13-5 17.9% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1
12-6 3.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 83.8% 83.8 69.2 12.1 2.1 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 6.6% 46.3% 46.3% 13.9 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.6 3.6
17-1 18.7% 40.4% 40.4% 15.0 0.1 1.3 4.9 1.3 11.1
16-2 27.2% 36.6% 36.6% 15.5 0.3 4.5 5.2 17.2
15-3 23.6% 31.3% 31.3% 15.7 0.1 1.8 5.6 16.2
14-4 14.7% 27.9% 27.9% 15.9 0.5 3.6 10.6
13-5 6.4% 23.2% 23.2% 16.0 0.1 1.4 4.9
12-6 2.2% 16.6% 16.6% 16.0 0.4 1.8
11-7 0.5% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.1 0.4
10-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 34.0% 34.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.8 3.4 12.3 17.5 66.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 13.9 0.7 22.9 57.8 18.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%