Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.6 #246
Expected Predictive Rating -6.4 #268
Pace 75.7 #34
Improvement +0.9 #137

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #300 D- C- C C- D
Defense #164 D C- B+ F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #184 1.04 #309 -2.4 #267
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #54 0.61 #342 +0.7 #144
Three Pointers 34% #313 1.02 #177 -3.3 #295
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #322 -5.0 #322
Freethrows 17.9 #155 66% #348 11.8 #228
Second Chance 30.0% #201 0.99 #259 0.30 #229
Turnovers 16.8% #200
Total Offense -4.7 #300

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #270 1.20 #247 +1.0 #137
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #232 0.80 #260 +0.3 #171
Three Pointers 46% #49 1.13 #324 -5.3 #345
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #304 -4.0 #305
Freethrows 21.3 #336 77% #335 16.3 #348
Second Chance 31.8% #241 1.09 #252 0.35 #253
Turnovers 18.8% #56
Total Defense +0.1 #164

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #298 0.1% #169
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.2% #310 7.7% #317
Possession Length 16.2 #69 16.6 #72
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #126 0.22 #324
Improvement -2.1 #301 +3.0 #35

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.2% 27.1% 22.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 40.2% 44.9% 20.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 97.1% 88.4%
Conference Champion 44.3% 48.9% 25.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.6% 15.3% 16.8%
First Round19.1% 20.2% 14.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 80.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 30 - 10 - 8
Quad 414 - 814 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 20 @Arkansas L 77 - 109 2% -21  0 - 1 -12 +1 C- C A- -8 C B D+
 Wed, Nov 5 102 @Marquette L 82 - 100 13% -9  0 - 2 -10 +4 C C- B -12 F D- D+
 Tue, Nov 18 47 @Washington L 93 - 99 2OT 5% +3  0 - 3 +8 +4 C- A+ F +6 A C A-
 Fri, Nov 21 238 @San Jose St. L 66 - 80 37% -8  0 - 4 -15 -9 F F C- -7 F D A+
 Sat, Nov 29 276 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 73 46% +8  1 - 4 -1 -1 D+ D D- -1 C F B+
 Mon, Dec 8 38 @Texas L 69 - 95 4% -17  1 - 5 -10 -1 B- F F -9 F F A+
 Wed, Dec 10 263 @Texas St. L 83 - 86 42% +2  1 - 6 -6 +1 C- C F -6 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 142 @California Baptist L 67 - 75 21% -4  1 - 7 -4 -2 F B F -2 C- A D+
 Sun, Dec 21 41 @Baylor L 67 - 111 4% -15  1 - 8 -29 -1 F A+ A- -28 F D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 9 @Illinois L 55 - 90 1% -20  1 - 9 -12 -4 F B C -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 335 Texas Southern W 84 - 73 81% +8  2 - 9 1 - 0 -3 -5 C+ F C +1 C D+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 317 Prairie View L 85 - 89 78% -5  2 - 10 1 - 1 -17 -0 F C B -16 F F B
 Sat, Jan 10 313 @Florida A&M L 59 - 67 56% -4  2 - 11 1 - 2 -14 -13 F F F -2 C F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 269 @Bethune-Cookman W 77 - 73 44% -4  3 - 11 2 - 2 +1 -0 F A- B- +1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 287 @Grambling St. W 71 - 53 48% +11  4 - 11 3 - 2 +14 -2 D F B +16 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84 - 75 81%
 Mon, Jan 26 365 Mississippi Valley W 82 - 59 98%
 Sat, Jan 31 347 @Alcorn St. W 78 - 73 67%
 Mon, Feb 2 325 @Jackson St. W 81 - 78 59%
 Sat, Feb 7 301 Alabama A&M W 75 - 69 73%
 Mon, Feb 9 311 Alabama St. W 80 - 73 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 317 @Prairie View W 80 - 78 58%
 Mon, Feb 16 335 @Texas Southern W 79 - 76 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 287 Grambling St. W 76 - 70 70%
 Thu, Feb 26 313 Florida A&M W 78 - 70 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 269 Bethune-Cookman W 78 - 74 66%
 Tue, Mar 3 311 @Alabama St. W 77 - 76 54%
 Thu, Mar 5 301 @Alabama A&M W 73 - 72 51%
Totals 13 - 15 12 - 6 -5 -5 D- C- C +0 D C- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 8.0 14.2 12.8 6.3 1.7 44.3 1st
2nd 0.5 5.9 9.7 4.0 0.7 0.0 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.8 7.0 2.1 0.1 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 5.2 2.2 0.1 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 3.1 0.2 5.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 0.6 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.2 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.0 6.7 12.2 16.6 20.0 18.4 13.5 6.4 1.7 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.7    1.7
15-3 99.6% 6.3    6.2 0.2
14-4 94.9% 12.8    10.9 1.8 0.1
13-5 77.5% 14.2    8.3 5.1 0.8 0.0
12-6 40.1% 8.0    1.8 3.6 2.1 0.4 0.0
11-7 7.7% 1.3    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.3% 44.3 28.9 10.9 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.7% 41.8% 41.8% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-3 6.4% 38.5% 38.5% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.6 3.9
14-4 13.5% 37.0% 37.0% 15.7 0.0 1.3 3.7 8.5
13-5 18.4% 30.9% 30.9% 15.9 0.5 5.2 12.7
12-6 20.0% 27.3% 27.3% 16.0 0.1 5.4 14.6
11-7 16.6% 20.9% 20.9% 16.0 3.5 13.1
10-8 12.2% 18.6% 18.6% 16.0 2.3 9.9
9-9 6.7% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0 1.0 5.7
8-10 3.0% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.2 2.9
7-11 1.2% 1.2
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.2% 26.2% 0.0% 15.8 73.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 13.8 2.2 34.1 45.7 17.4 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%