Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#231
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#200
Pace70.3#117
Improvement+0.5#177

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#303
First Shot-5.4#316
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#158
Layup/Dunks+2.3#98
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#333
Freethrows-0.9#242
Improvement+0.3#178

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#135
First Shot+2.5#93
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#296
Layups/Dunks+3.5#61
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#318
Freethrows+0.4#159
Improvement+0.2#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.5% 40.5% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.2% 12.3% 0.0%
First Round25.8% 34.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 01 - 5
Quad 30 - 21 - 7
Quad 417 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 239   @ South Dakota L 79-93 41%     0 - 1 -15.4 -6.8 -7.0
  Nov 07, 2024 63   @ Iowa L 74-89 8%     0 - 2 -3.1 -0.1 -2.4
  Nov 13, 2024 335   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 68-70 68%     0 - 3 -10.6 -7.7 -2.9
  Nov 20, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M L 54-71 3%     0 - 4 +2.1 -3.8 +4.6
  Nov 30, 2024 119   @ Louisiana Tech W 73-70 19%     1 - 4 +8.5 +2.4 +6.1
  Dec 07, 2024 250   @ Tulsa W 70-66 43%     2 - 4 +1.9 +1.9 +0.2
  Dec 17, 2024 29   @ Mississippi L 61-74 4%     2 - 5 +4.0 -6.0 +10.5
  Dec 20, 2024 157   @ Loyola Marymount L 73-89 26%     2 - 6 -13.0 +4.7 -18.0
  Dec 22, 2024 62   @ USC L 51-82 8%     2 - 7 -19.0 -21.0 +3.7
  Dec 30, 2024 57   @ Nebraska L 43-77 7%     2 - 8 -21.2 -20.7 -2.2
  Jan 04, 2025 279   @ Texas Southern W 67-58 50%     3 - 8 1 - 0 +5.1 -3.5 +8.5
  Jan 06, 2025 358   @ Prairie View W 84-80 81%     4 - 8 2 - 0 -9.2 -4.1 -5.5
  Jan 11, 2025 322   Florida A&M W 91-57 79%     5 - 8 3 - 0 +21.6 +15.7 +7.6
  Jan 13, 2025 289   Bethune-Cookman W 69-53 73%     6 - 8 4 - 0 +5.8 -10.5 +15.5
  Jan 18, 2025 330   Grambling St. W 67-60 82%     7 - 8 5 - 0 -6.4 -7.8 +1.6
  Jan 25, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83-67 86%     8 - 8 6 - 0 +0.3 -3.2 +2.5
  Jan 27, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 63-42 97%     9 - 8 7 - 0 -4.5 -11.9 +10.2
  Feb 01, 2025 327   Alcorn St. W 74-69 80%     10 - 8 8 - 0 -7.6 -5.7 -2.0
  Feb 03, 2025 269   Jackson St. W 91-89 OT 68%     11 - 8 9 - 0 -6.7 +2.9 -9.8
  Feb 08, 2025 359   @ Alabama A&M W 81-68 81%     12 - 8 10 - 0 -0.2 +5.3 -5.4
  Feb 10, 2025 288   @ Alabama St. L 81-82 53%     12 - 9 10 - 1 -5.6 +4.7 -10.2
  Feb 15, 2025 358   Prairie View W 72-60 91%     13 - 9 11 - 1 -6.7 -12.1 +5.1
  Feb 17, 2025 279   Texas Southern W 66-57 70%     14 - 9 12 - 1 -0.4 -11.6 +10.6
  Feb 22, 2025 330   @ Grambling St. W 71-64 65%     15 - 9 13 - 1 -0.9 +7.8 -7.6
  Mar 01, 2025 289   @ Bethune-Cookman L 69-70 53%     15 - 10 13 - 2 -5.7 -5.7 +0.1
  Mar 03, 2025 322   @ Florida A&M W 73-70 61%     16 - 10 14 - 2 -3.8 +0.3 -3.9
  Mar 06, 2025 288   Alabama St. L 65-66 73%     16 - 11 14 - 3 -11.1 -8.6 -2.6
  Mar 08, 2025 359   Alabama A&M W 71-57 91%     17 - 11 15 - 3 -4.8 -2.3 -1.2
  Mar 12, 2025 330   Grambling St. W 68-61 74%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 30.5% 30.5% 15.8 0.1 6.4 23.9 69.5
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.5% 30.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 6.4 23.9 69.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 30.5% 100.0% 15.8 0.5 21.1 78.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 16.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 28.1%
Lose Out 24.8%