California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.2 138
Expected Predictive Rating +5.9 87
Pace 65.1 275
Improvement -0.8 222

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #216 D+ C+ C- C B-
Defense B- #90 B- B+ D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 20 50% 345 +0.7 155
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 214 37% 195 -0.8 220
Three Pointers 35% 303 33% 221 -3.5 300
1st FG Attempt 0.95 294 -3.6 293
Second Chance 37.6% 20 0.89 334 0.33 122
Turnovers 17.6% 227
Freethrows 0.31 162 72% 187 0.23 164
Total Offense -1.9 216

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 117 53% 64 +0.4 158
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 111 39% 235 -0.9 260
Three Pointers 37% 303 31% 56 +3.9 37
1st FG Attempt 0.95 63 +3.4 63
Second Chance 25.8% 35 0.95 70 0.24 34
Turnovers 15.4% 271
Freethrows 0.32 222 74% 273 0.23 245
Total Defense +3.1 90

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.7 83 +0.0 164
Shot Type Accuracy -4.3 318 -3.3 56
Possession Length 18.3 281 17.1 158
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 297 0.17 180
Improvement -2.5 #310 +1.7 #95

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24% 26% 20%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 37% 45% 21%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round24% 26% 20%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Away) - 68.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 5
Quad 36 - 38 - 8
Quad 416 - 123 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 297 South Carolina Upstate W 87 - 75 87% +8  95% 1 - 0 C +1 B +7 A D- A+ D -6 D+ C- B
 Fri, Nov 7 119 @UC Irvine W 69 - 61 33% +3  55% 2 - 0 B+ +14 C- -0 C B- F A+ +14 A A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 362 Western Illinois W 69 - 59 96% +6  88% 3 - 0 D -10 D- -7 F D A C -2 D+ A F+
 Tue, Nov 18 293 UC Riverside W 80 - 57 87% +15  95% 4 - 0 B+ +12 D- -6 F C- C- A+ +17 A B- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 285 Grambling St. W 72 - 59 85% +13  97% 5 - 0 C+ +3 C +2 A+ D+ F B- +2 C A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 216 San Diego W 76 - 61 66% +2  54% 6 - 0 B+ +12 D+ -2 D- A+ F A+ +14 B+ A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 178 @Oregon St. W 75 - 69 47% +2  50% 7 - 0 B- +8 B- +4 B F A B +5 D+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 77 @Colorado L 70 - 78 19% +2  64% 7 - 1 C+ +2 C- -1 D- C- C B- +3 B C- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 21 BYU L 60 - 91 7% -18  1% 7 - 2 D- -13 F+ -10 F+ D D- D+ -4 C+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 110 @Utah L 85 - 91 29% -4  1% 7 - 3 C +1 A- +10 D- A+ D+ F+ -9 B- F+ D
 Fri, Dec 12 229 @Eastern Washington W 88 - 83 57% +5  71% 8 - 3 C+ +4 A- +9 B A F D+ -5 D+ D D-
 Tue, Dec 16 264 Southern W 75 - 67 83% +4  89% 9 - 3 C -1 D+ -4 D- D- B+ B- +3 B- C- B+
 Sat, Dec 20 254 Sacramento St. W 74 - 67 82% +2  62% 10 - 3 C -1 D -4 F A+ D- B- +3 A F C+
 Mon, Dec 29 91 @Utah Valley L 66 - 73 24% -0  45% 10 - 4 0 - 1 C +1 D -5 A+ F F B+ +6 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 169 @Texas Arlington L 51 - 63 45% -4  3% 10 - 5 0 - 2 D -10 F -16 D D- F B +5 A C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 214 @Tarleton St. L 76 - 81 OT 55% -1  25% 10 - 6 0 - 3 D+ -5 C- -1 B- B F C- -3 D- A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 8 203 Utah Tech W 84 - 72 75% +7  89% 11 - 6 1 - 3 B- +6 A+ +16 D A+ A D- -8 D A D
 Sat, Jan 10 284 Southern Utah W 58 - 55 85% +6  95% 12 - 6 2 - 3 D+ -7 F -12 F A- A- B +6 A+ F C
 Thu, Jan 15 260 @Abilene Christian W 74 - 58 65% +13  85% 13 - 6 3 - 3 B+ +13 B +7 D C- A+ A- +8 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 203 Utah Tech W 73 - 64 75% +5  81% 14 - 6 4 - 3 C+ +3 B- +4 D- A A C+ +0 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 91 Utah Valley W 78 - 71 OT 45% +0  54% 15 - 6 5 - 3 B +9 C- -1 B- D+ D A +10 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 169 @Texas Arlington W 87 - 77 OT 45% +5  95% 16 - 6 6 - 3 B+ +12 B +6 C+ B A- B +5 B A D-
 Thu, Feb 5 214 Tarleton St. W 56 - 55 75% -1  31% 17 - 6 7 - 3 D+ -5 F -16 F C D+ A +11 C+ A+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 260 Abilene Christian W 65 - 63 82% +4  82% 18 - 6 8 - 3 D+ -7 F -10 F F A B- +4 A A D-
 Thu, Feb 12 284 @Southern Utah W 74 - 69 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 203 @Utah Tech W 70 - 69 53%
 Thu, Feb 19 91 @Utah Valley L 67 - 74 25%
 Thu, Feb 26 169 Texas Arlington W 68 - 63 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 214 Tarleton St. W 73 - 66 75%
 Thu, Mar 5 260 Abilene Christian W 72 - 62 82%
 Sat, Mar 7 284 @Southern Utah W 74 - 69 68%
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 6 +1 C- -2 D+ C+ C- B- +3 B- B+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C- C- D 46% 19% 35% B- D+ B+ D- C+ C- C C C B- B C- B B 41% 22% 37% C B- B+ B- B+ D+ C- D+ C-
1.06 50% 37% 33% -4 +1 0.95 38% 0.9 .33 18% .31 72% .23 1.04 53% 39% 31% -3 0 0.95 26% 0.9 .24 15% .32 74% .23
Nov
3		 South Carolina Upstate B B- A+ A- A 58% 13% 28% A- A B F D- A+ C+ F D D D D A D+ 44% 25% 31% C D+ B F C- B F C F
1.23 61% 71% 40% +9 +2 1.25 37% 0.7 .26 10% .33 57% .19 1.06 62% 42% 27% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.1 .27 20% .51 69% .35
Nov
7		 UC Irvine C- F A+ A- C- 48% 17% 35% A- C A+ F+ B- F C+ D- C A+ A+ A F A 40% 36% 25% B+ A A A+ A+ D- D- A+ C
0.96 32% 56% 39% -7 +1 0.90 48% 0.7 .33 24% .28 67% .18 0.85 33% 26% 46% -9 -2 0.79 23% 0.7 .17 14% .37 57% .21
Nov
14		 Western Illinois D- F F F F 42% 8% 50% B F A+ F D A B A- B+ C C+ F A+ D+ 51% 28% 21% F+ D+ A+ D A F+ F D F
1.10 50% 25% 25% -11 +2 0.83 46% 0.7 .30 10% .35 80% .28 0.94 50% 46% 20% -6 0 0.89 12% 1.0 .12 13% .38 71% .27
Nov
18		 UC Riverside D- F A+ F F 64% 20% 16% B+ F A+ F C- C- B- D C+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 46% 21% 33% C- A D A B- A+ B+ B B+
1.05 47% 55% 22% -7 +2 0.93 47% 0.6 .29 16% .36 65% .23 0.75 42% 45% 24% -11 0 0.81 31% 0.7 .21 29% .24 69% .17
Nov
21		 Grambling St. C A- A+ B+ A+ 61% 7% 32% A A+ C D- D+ F B- D+ C+ B- D F+ A+ C 40% 18% 43% D+ C A+ A+ A+ C+ F F F
1.12 68% 67% 38% +10 +3 1.29 35% 0.9 .30 28% .37 71% .26 0.91 63% 43% 24% -4 +1 0.95 17% 0.0 .00 22% .46 91% .42
Nov
25		 San Diego D+ F+ F B- F+ 42% 12% 47% B D- C A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ A+ F B A+ A 46% 12% 42% F B+ A+ F A+ C- C+ A+ B
1.07 50% 20% 35% -5 +1 0.95 35% 1.5 .55 24% .52 79% .41 0.86 75% 33% 14% -6 +2 0.94 3% 4.0 .13 17% .22 62% .14
Nov
29		 Oregon St. B- B- F A B 54% 17% 29% B- B D F F A C F D+ B A- A F D+ 38% 15% 47% D+ D+ A+ A A+ C A- F C+
1.11 61% 22% 40% +1 +2 1.08 27% 0.7 .19 10% .33 65% .22 1.03 44% 29% 45% +2 +1 1.06 14% 1.0 .14 18% .31 88% .27
Dec
1		 Colorado C- D+ F F F 64% 13% 23% A+ D- B+ F C- C A+ B- A+ B- A D F B 46% 24% 30% C+ B D C+ C- C+ F C- F
1.03 53% 29% 17% -10 +3 0.87 33% 0.9 .28 16% .42 75% .32 1.15 48% 45% 43% +1 0 1.04 36% 0.9 .33 15% .53 77% .41
Dec
3		 BYU F+ F F C- F 46% 17% 37% A+ F+ A- F D D- A B A D+ D+ D C C+ 38% 20% 42% D+ C+ D F F C- A D A-
0.87 38% 11% 32% -15 +1 0.73 34% 0.6 .22 20% .34 74% .25 1.31 67% 45% 35% +5 0 1.13 42% 1.6 .68 13% .23 79% .18
Dec
6		 Utah A- C+ F F+ D- 42% 25% 34% D+ D- A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ F+ B- F+ B- F B- C+ 41% 22% 37% B B- C+ F F+ D F D- F
1.20 59% 23% 28% -6 0 0.89 53% 1.3 .72 17% .32 63% .20 1.29 55% 55% 33% +2 0 1.06 29% 1.3 .38 13% .60 78% .47
Dec
12		 Eastern Washington A- B- A+ D B 53% 18% 29% C+ B A+ F+ A F A+ A- A+ D+ B+ D- F C- 56% 21% 23% F D+ D+ D D D- F A F
1.25 63% 75% 31% +8 +1 1.20 54% 1.0 .54 21% .50 82% .41 1.18 48% 45% 50% +2 +1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 16% .45 67% .30
Dec
16		 Southern D+ C+ C+ F+ F+ 25% 10% 65% B- D- C+ F D- B+ A- B+ A B- A+ A D B 38% 24% 38% D B- C- C C- B+ D F+ D-
1.08 62% 40% 30% -2 0 0.98 34% 0.8 .27 16% .45 81% .36 0.97 42% 25% 37% -7 0 0.86 32% 1.0 .32 20% .36 75% .27
Dec
20		 Sacramento St. D F A- D F 61% 9% 30% A F A B+ A+ D- A+ D A+ B- A+ F A+ A 22% 35% 44% A A F F F C+ A+ D- A+
1.10 33% 50% 31% -15 +3 0.77 43% 1.3 .55 19% .55 70% .38 0.99 17% 58% 21% -11 -3 0.75 38% 1.4 .51 16% .11 83% .09
Dec
29		 Utah Valley D A A+ D A+ 53% 23% 25% B- A+ C- F F F A A+ A+ B+ D- D+ B D 57% 19% 24% C D+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ A+ A-
0.94 67% 67% 30% +10 +1 1.23 28% 0.0 .00 33% .42 85% .36 1.04 68% 40% 31% +5 +2 1.15 9% 0.7 .06 11% .32 45% .14
Jan
1		 Texas Arlington F C- C- F D+ 33% 40% 28% F D D+ F D- F F+ C F+ B A- A+ B+ A 38% 29% 33% A A C+ C+ C+ F F F F
0.80 57% 35% 25% -5 -3 0.86 25% 0.9 .21 27% .30 71% .21 0.99 44% 25% 29% -12 -1 0.76 34% 0.9 .31 16% .43 87% .37
Jan
3		 Tarleton St. C- B A B- B- 46% 13% 41% B B- A- D+ B F D C D+ C- F B+ F F 33% 41% 26% A+ D- A+ A+ A+ C- F B- F
1.02 67% 50% 37% +7 +1 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 28% .34 72% .24 1.09 67% 32% 50% +6 -3 1.09 21% 0.6 .12 19% .64 74% .48
Jan
8		 Utah Tech A+ F B C+ D 46% 15% 39% C+ D A+ A+ A+ A A+ B A+ D- D B- F D 49% 19% 32% D+ D C A+ A D F F+ F
1.35 48% 43% 33% -4 +1 0.96 52% 1.4 .73 11% .47 77% .36 1.15 65% 33% 40% +6 +1 1.15 29% 0.4 .13 14% .34 78% .26
Jan
10		 Southern Utah F F F F F 39% 27% 35% D+ F A+ C A- A- A F B- B A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 18% 40% D+ A+ F F F C C D C-
0.95 37% 23% 18% -21 -1 0.59 44% 1.0 .42 10% .35 58% .20 0.90 42% 13% 22% -18 +1 0.67 36% 1.3 .46 20% .25 75% .18
Jan
15		 Abilene Christian B C- F A+ D 54% 19% 27% C+ D B+ F C- A+ D- A+ C+ A- B+ B- C B 52% 27% 20% D B- A+ A+ A+ F F C+ F
1.16 58% 11% 46% 0 +1 1.04 36% 0.8 .30 16% .39 86% .33 0.91 48% 33% 33% -7 0 0.89 19% 0.3 .05 13% .45 68% .30
Jan
21		 Utah Tech B- F+ D C- D- 49% 18% 33% C D- B- A+ A A A F C C+ A+ A+ F A+ 36% 28% 36% A A+ D+ F F F B+ F C-
1.18 50% 33% 31% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.4 .49 11% .38 57% .22 1.03 37% 20% 42% -8 -1 0.83 31% 1.2 .36 10% .18 100% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Utah Valley C- D+ F+ A+ B- 50% 22% 28% B- B- C- D- D+ D A+ D+ A+ A B+ F A+ A+ 58% 11% 30% D A+ A- A+ A+ D F D+ F
1.03 52% 30% 46% +1 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 22% .53 71% .37 0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +3 0.83 30% 0.7 .21 18% .52 72% .37
Jan
31		 Texas Arlington B D+ B- C+ B- 36% 34% 30% D C+ C A+ B A- A+ D+ A+ B A F+ B+ B- 32% 25% 42% A B B- A+ A D- B- F C-
1.11 56% 41% 33% 0 -2 0.98 28% 1.4 .38 13% .53 69% .37 0.99 42% 47% 28% -7 -1 0.86 34% 0.7 .23 17% .32 81% .26
Feb
5		 Tarleton St. F F A F F 43% 27% 30% D F A+ F C D+ B- A B+ A F C- A+ C 45% 39% 16% A- C+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ F A+
0.85 26% 50% 23% -15 -1 0.70 47% 0.8 .35 24% .40 80% .32 0.84 70% 40% 0% -2 -2 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 20% .11 83% .09
Feb
7		 Abilene Christian F F F A+ F 51% 15% 33% B- F C F F A A+ D+ A+ B- A F+ A+ A+ 49% 22% 29% D- A C A+ A D- F C F
0.96 35% 17% 54% -5 +2 0.95 30% 0.3 .10 18% .61 71% .43 0.93 42% 45% 21% -12 +1 0.80 33% 0.5 .16 18% .47 69% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 4.9 14.4 14.1 3.5 37.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 11.2 21.9 14.2 2.0 51.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 3.4 4.6 1.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.3 2.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
Total 0.1 1.4 6.2 16.4 27.7 28.6 16.1 3.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 3.5    3.5
14-4 87.6% 14.1    9.7 4.4
13-5 50.5% 14.4    5.7 8.3 0.4
12-6 17.5% 4.9    0.6 2.7 1.4 0.1
11-7 2.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.3% 37.3 19.7 15.5 2.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 3.5% 33.9% 33.9% 12.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.3
14-4 16.1% 32.3% 32.3% 12.8 0.0 1.4 3.2 0.6 10.9
13-5 28.6% 26.4% 26.4% 13.1 1.2 4.4 1.9 0.1 21.0
12-6 27.7% 21.6% 21.6% 13.4 0.4 3.0 2.3 0.2 21.8
11-7 16.4% 18.0% 18.0% 13.7 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.4
10-8 6.2% 12.2% 12.2% 13.9 0.2 0.5 0.1 5.5
9-9 1.4% 12.2% 12.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 13.2 76.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 12.2 5.0 69.2 25.0 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%