UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#125
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#167
Pace72.0#119
Improvement+0.8#114

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#293
First Shot-4.2#293
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#186
Layup/Dunks-1.2#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#330
Freethrows+2.3#71
Improvement-0.3#205

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#21
First Shot+8.6#12
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#280
Layups/Dunks+2.1#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#56
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#65
Freethrows+1.0#125
Improvement+1.1#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 20.7% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 88.3% 91.0% 73.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 95.2% 83.0%
Conference Champion 24.1% 26.4% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round19.4% 20.7% 12.5%
Second Round2.4% 2.6% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 84.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 68 - 10
Quad 411 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 130 California Baptist L 61-69 64%     0 - 1 -8.9 -12.3 +3.5
  Sat, Nov 15 192 Weber St. W 79-70 78%     1 - 1 +3.8 -5.2 +8.1
  Wed, Nov 19 90 @Utah Valley L 72-79 28%     1 - 2 +1.7 +4.5 -2.8
  Sat, Nov 22 87 Northern Iowa L 69-70 OT 50%     1 - 3 +1.9 -1.2 +3.1
  Tue, Nov 25 116 New Mexico St. L 45-57 48%     1 - 4 -8.7 -25.2 +16.4
  Wed, Nov 26 147 South Dakota St. W 64-52 58%     2 - 4 +12.7 -10.0 +22.0
  Sun, Nov 30 185 @San Jose St. W 72-63 56%     3 - 4 +10.2 +3.5 +7.2
  Thu, Dec 4 271 UC Riverside W 73-60 87%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +3.9 -2.9 +7.1
  Sat, Dec 6 253 Cal St. Northridge W 79-68 85%    
  Fri, Dec 19 88 Belmont L 71-72 51%    
  Sun, Dec 21 149 North Dakota St. W 69-67 59%    
  Thu, Jan 1 280 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-66 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 303 @Cal St. Fullerton W 80-72 76%    
  Thu, Jan 8 286 Long Beach St. W 74-61 87%    
  Sun, Jan 11 108 @Hawaii L 67-71 34%    
  Sat, Jan 17 168 @UC Davis W 67-66 52%    
  Thu, Jan 22 271 @UC Riverside W 71-65 70%    
  Sat, Jan 24 102 @UC San Diego L 67-72 33%    
  Thu, Jan 29 108 Hawaii W 70-68 56%    
  Thu, Feb 5 280 Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-63 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 148 @UC Santa Barbara L 69-70 47%    
  Thu, Feb 12 243 @Cal Poly W 79-75 66%    
  Sat, Feb 14 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 83-69 89%    
  Thu, Feb 19 286 @Long Beach St. W 71-64 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 102 UC San Diego W 70-69 54%    
  Thu, Feb 26 253 @Cal St. Northridge W 76-71 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 148 UC Santa Barbara W 72-67 68%    
  Thu, Mar 5 243 Cal Poly W 82-72 82%    
  Sat, Mar 7 168 UC Davis W 70-63 73%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.8 6.3 6.5 4.3 1.7 0.4 24.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.0 7.7 4.8 1.5 0.1 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 3.3 6.9 6.7 3.0 0.4 21.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.1 5.0 3.6 1.2 0.1 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.4 3.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.5 5.6 8.1 10.6 13.4 15.0 14.6 11.5 8.1 4.4 1.7 0.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.1
18-2 96.8% 4.3    3.7 0.5
17-3 81.0% 6.5    4.7 1.7 0.1
16-4 54.3% 6.3    3.5 2.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 25.7% 3.8    1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1
14-6 6.8% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.1% 24.1 15.6 6.8 1.5 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 56.6% 56.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
19-1 1.7% 47.7% 47.7% 11.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9
18-2 4.4% 44.8% 44.8% 12.3 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.4
17-3 8.1% 39.2% 39.2% 12.7 0.0 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.9
16-4 11.5% 32.3% 32.3% 13.0 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.8 0.0 7.8
15-5 14.6% 24.6% 24.6% 13.3 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.2 0.2 11.0
14-6 15.0% 17.1% 17.1% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 12.4
13-7 13.4% 12.9% 12.9% 13.9 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 11.7
12-8 10.6% 9.1% 9.1% 14.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.7
11-9 8.1% 5.2% 5.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.7
10-10 5.6% 3.4% 3.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.4
9-11 3.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 3.4
8-12 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
7-13 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.7 7.3 5.1 1.5 0.1 80.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.8 10.8 5.4 16.2 16.2 51.4