UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +2.9 119
Expected Predictive Rating +2.2 127
Pace 71.3 112
Improvement +1.5 123

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #256 D+ C+ C C- D+
Defense B #40 B+ B- C+ B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 74 53% 287 +0.5 158
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 37 37% 210 +2.9 52
Three Pointers 28% 361 32% 238 -7.1 353
1st FG Attempt 0.95 296 -3.7 296
Second Chance 30.6% 176 1.07 118 0.33 139
Turnovers 17.0% 182
Freethrows 0.31 165 68% 302 0.21 206
Total Offense -3.0 256

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 207 44% 3 +5.6 31
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 68 38% 181 -1.2 279
Three Pointers 38% 260 33% 156 +1.7 107
1st FG Attempt 0.90 32 +6.1 29
Second Chance 32.8% 282 0.86 13 0.28 90
Turnovers 17.6% 134
Freethrows 0.26 52 72% 150 0.19 51
Total Defense +5.9 40

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.8 287 -0.5 90
Shot Type Accuracy -2.9 285 -5.4 26
Possession Length 16.9 128 17.1 155
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 154 0.17 181
Improvement +2.9 #51 -1.4 #270

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25% 27% 20%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 45% 54% 26%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round25% 27% 20%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 70.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 41 - 4
Quad 37 - 68 - 10
Quad 413 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 138 California Baptist L 61 - 69 67% -3  38% 0 - 1 D -10 F -14 F+ D B- B +4 B- C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 232 Weber St. W 79 - 70 82% +8  91% 1 - 1 C+ +2 F+ -10 D D C A +11 A+ B+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 91 @Utah Valley L 72 - 79 30% -6  2% 1 - 2 C +1 C +1 F B+ A C +0 C C F
 Sat, Nov 22 100 Northern Iowa L 69 - 70 OT 53% -3  15% 1 - 3 C +1 C- -2 D A A B- +3 A- A D-
 Tue, Nov 25 167 New Mexico St. L 45 - 57 63% -5  4% 1 - 4 D- -12 F -32 F F F A+ +19 A+ D- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 193 South Dakota St. W 64 - 52 69% +7  86% 2 - 4 B +10 F -16 F+ F F A+ +25 A+ A A-
 Sun, Nov 30 236 @San Jose St. W 72 - 63 66% +5  89% 3 - 4 B- +8 C- -1 D C+ B- A- +10 A- A D
 Thu, Dec 4 293 UC Riverside W 73 - 60 89% +11  98% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C+ +2 D -5 C- D C- B+ +8 A+ B- F+
 Sat, Dec 6 186 Cal St. Northridge W 85 - 71 76% -0  30% 5 - 4 2 - 0 B +9 B+ +7 D+ A+ B- C+ +2 B+ A F
 Fri, Dec 19 78 Belmont L 58 - 84 44% -8  18% 5 - 5 F -22 F -17 F F A D+ -4 D C+ B+
 Sun, Dec 21 146 North Dakota St. W 74 - 73 58% +3  72% 6 - 5 C+ +2 C+ +2 C+ B B C -1 C F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 307 Norfolk St. W 89 - 70 86% +16  97% 7 - 5 B +10 A +14 B- A+ B C- -3 D+ F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 322 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 77 83% +6  98% 8 - 5 3 - 0 C- -3 C+ +3 B- A- F+ D -6 C- D- F
 Sat, Jan 3 210 @Cal St. Fullerton W 86 - 64 61% +9  80% 9 - 5 4 - 0 A +22 A +13 A A+ D- A- +9 A+ D+ D+
 Thu, Jan 8 251 Long Beach St. W 74 - 64 85% +7  75% 10 - 5 5 - 0 C+ +2 D- -7 F+ F A A- +9 C+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 102 @Hawaii L 66 - 67 31% -2  21% 10 - 6 5 - 1 B- +7 D+ -3 D- A- F A- +10 B A- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 180 @UC Davis L 72 - 75 55% -2  9% 10 - 7 5 - 2 C -1 C- -1 C- C+ D+ C -0 A+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 22 293 @UC Riverside W 80 - 66 77% +10  97% 11 - 7 6 - 2 B +9 C+ +2 C- B F B+ +7 A+ D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 139 @UC San Diego W 61 - 59 45% +1  59% 12 - 7 7 - 2 B- +6 F -11 D- D- B A+ +17 A- A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 102 Hawaii W 87 - 76 OT 54% +2  67% 13 - 7 8 - 2 B+ +13 C +1 B- B- D A +10 A- A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 322 Cal St. Bakersfield W 78 - 62 92% +5  68% 14 - 7 9 - 2 C+ +3 D- -7 D- F A+ A- +9 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 133 @UC Santa Barbara L 79 - 84 43% -6  35% 14 - 8 9 - 3 C -0 C+ +2 C D- B C- -2 C- D+ B-
 Thu, Feb 12 265 @Cal Poly W 82 - 76 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 210 Cal St. Fullerton W 80 - 71 79%
 Thu, Feb 19 251 @Long Beach St. W 74 - 69 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 139 UC San Diego W 72 - 67 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 186 @Cal St. Northridge W 78 - 77 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 133 UC Santa Barbara W 73 - 69 65%
 Thu, Mar 5 265 Cal Poly W 85 - 73 86%
 Sat, Mar 7 180 UC Davis W 75 - 68 75%
Totals 20 - 10 15 - 5 +3 D+ -3 D+ C+ C B +6 B+ B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ C- C- D+ 43% 29% 28% D+ D+ C C+ C+ C C D C- B A+ C C A- 38% 24% 38% B- B+ D+ A- B- C+ B C B
1.04 53% 37% 32% -3 -1 0.95 31% 1.1 .33 17% .31 68% .21 1.00 44% 38% 33% -5 0 0.90 33% 0.9 .28 18% .26 72% .22
Nov
7		 California Baptist F F F A+ F+ 40% 36% 25% F+ F+ C- F D B- B+ F D+ B A+ F F+ B- 48% 17% 35% C- B- F A C A+ B B+ B+
0.85 33% 26% 46% -9 -2 0.79 23% 0.7 .17 14% .37 57% .21 0.96 32% 56% 39% -7 +1 0.90 48% 0.7 .33 24% .28 67% .18
Nov
15		 Weber St. F+ C+ F+ F D 48% 28% 24% D D C F D C A+ D A+ A C+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 23% 29% B+ A+ C- A B+ C D+ C D+
1.02 64% 31% 27% -2 0 0.98 31% 0.9 .28 17% .59 68% .40 0.90 56% 15% 19% -13 0 0.77 33% 0.8 .24 17% .37 71% .26
Nov
19		 Utah Valley C D D+ F F 34% 32% 34% F+ F C A+ B+ A C+ B- B- C C A+ C+ B- 71% 10% 18% F C C- B- C F F A+ B-
1.02 50% 35% 22% -10 -2 0.79 29% 1.3 .39 16% .35 76% .27 1.12 60% 20% 33% -1 +4 1.08 38% 1.1 .41 16% .42 44% .19
Nov
22		 Northern Iowa C- D F B- D+ 44% 38% 18% F+ D C A+ A A A+ F A B- A+ D- C A- 35% 21% 44% B+ A- D+ A+ A D- A D+ A-
0.96 50% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.82 25% 1.4 .35 13% .42 62% .26 0.98 41% 46% 33% -5 0 0.92 24% 0.5 .12 11% .16 70% .11
Nov
25		 New Mexico St. F D+ F F F 27% 34% 39% F F F C+ F F A+ F A A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ 29% 37% 34% A- A+ F C+ D- A+ F C+ F
0.64 55% 21% 13% -19 -3 0.59 17% 1.2 .20 26% .56 66% .37 0.82 50% 47% 7% -13 -3 0.71 41% 0.9 .38 30% .55 70% .39
Nov
26		 South Dakota St. F A- F F F 37% 21% 42% C F+ D+ F F F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 21% 36% C A+ A B+ A A- C- A+ B-
0.86 69% 22% 22% -7 0 0.88 25% 0.6 .16 27% .52 75% .39 0.70 43% 27% 16% -18 0 0.66 21% 0.9 .19 20% .29 59% .17
Nov
30		 San Jose St. C- D- A+ F D 55% 24% 22% C+ D C- B- C+ B- D+ F F A- A+ A+ F+ A- 31% 31% 38% C+ A- F+ A+ A D B+ D+ B
1.08 54% 50% 27% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.3 .42 17% .25 57% .14 0.95 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 40% 0.5 .21 14% .23 77% .17
Dec
4		 UC Riverside D F A- A+ C- 46% 20% 34% C C- F A- D C- A+ D A B+ A+ A+ A- A+ 50% 15% 35% F+ A+ D A B- F+ F B+ F
1.07 35% 50% 53% +1 +1 1.06 21% 1.1 .24 16% .45 65% .30 0.88 35% 25% 28% -17 +2 0.71 31% 0.6 .20 15% .48 68% .33
Dec
6		 Cal St. Northridge B+ F B B+ D+ 42% 27% 31% C- D+ A+ A+ A+ B- B F C+ C+ A+ A F B+ 48% 19% 33% C+ B+ A A- A F B- B B-
1.22 45% 43% 38% -2 -1 0.96 41% 1.9 .76 14% .35 67% .23 1.02 43% 27% 42% -5 +1 0.93 24% 0.8 .19 10% .29 61% .18
Dec
19		 Belmont F F F D+ F 25% 27% 48% D- F F F F A C+ F D D+ A+ F F D 49% 9% 43% D D C- B+ C+ B+ C F D
0.83 38% 21% 32% -11 -2 0.77 23% 0.8 .19 13% .28 59% .17 1.21 48% 75% 55% +12 +2 1.30 30% 1.1 .33 22% .31 76% .24
Dec
21		 North Dakota St. C+ B+ B- C- C+ 46% 24% 30% C+ C+ B- B+ B B B F C- C B+ B F C 31% 27% 42% C+ C F D+ F A+ F A+ B-
1.12 70% 42% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.0 .33 17% .29 63% .18 1.11 50% 33% 42% +1 -1 1.02 51% 1.1 .54 29% .36 47% .17
Dec
22		 Norfolk St. A A- A D B- 44% 16% 40% C B- A- A+ A+ B C- A+ B+ C- B+ B+ F D- 28% 41% 30% A+ D+ A- F F B+ D F F
1.31 73% 50% 30% +6 +1 1.16 41% 1.3 .55 15% .34 85% .29 1.03 46% 32% 50% +1 -3 0.98 23% 1.9 .43 22% .38 80% .30
Jan
1		 Cal St. Bakersfield C+ D+ D+ A+ A 29% 47% 24% F B- D A+ A- F+ A D B+ D B+ B F C- 40% 40% 19% B- C- F B+ D- F B+ D B-
1.16 54% 38% 64% +10 -4 1.13 32% 1.6 .50 22% .46 68% .31 1.10 48% 30% 45% -4 -2 0.89 47% 0.9 .40 13% .30 78% .23
Jan
3		 Cal St. Fullerton A B+ F A+ A 40% 10% 50% B A A A+ A+ D- B F C- A- A+ A+ F A+ 28% 31% 41% A+ A+ D- C D+ D+ A+ D A+
1.24 68% 20% 46% +11 +1 1.27 39% 1.5 .61 22% .35 58% .20 0.92 27% 24% 41% -9 -2 0.80 30% 0.9 .28 14% .20 75% .15
Jan
8		 Long Beach St. D- D+ B- F F+ 46% 32% 22% D F+ D- F F A A B A A- A- F+ C C+ 37% 41% 22% B+ C+ A A+ A+ C+ B D+ B-
1.04 57% 44% 18% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.0 .22 13% .45 79% .35 0.90 50% 45% 33% 0 -3 0.96 19% 0.3 .05 18% .22 77% .17
Jan
10		 Hawaii D+ F C+ F F 68% 20% 12% A D- A+ D A- F D A+ C+ A- A F A+ B+ 48% 13% 38% D+ B D+ A+ A- C+ A+ B A+
0.93 41% 40% 17% -14 +2 0.78 44% 0.9 .39 21% .27 80% .21 0.94 48% 71% 25% -5 +2 0.94 33% 0.7 .23 20% .23 69% .16
Jan
17		 UC Davis C- D B+ B+ C 46% 28% 26% D- C- C- B C+ D+ F A+ C C A A+ C+ A+ 28% 21% 51% B- A+ F+ F F D- F A F
1.05 52% 43% 38% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 20% .24 100% .24 1.09 46% 20% 33% -8 -1 0.85 33% 1.2 .41 15% .51 67% .34
Jan
22		 UC Riverside C+ C A+ F C- 47% 19% 34% C+ C- A+ F B F A+ B- A+ B+ A+ F A A+ 45% 13% 42% F+ A+ F B- D C+ C+ F D-
1.13 59% 67% 25% +1 +1 1.06 49% 0.8 .37 20% .55 71% .39 0.93 33% 57% 27% -13 +1 0.79 36% 0.8 .29 20% .28 94% .26
Jan
24		 UC San Diego F F+ C- D- D 40% 35% 25% D- D- F B- D- B D- F F A+ B+ C B A- 31% 19% 50% A A- A A+ A+ D- A+ C+ A+
0.87 45% 37% 29% -7 -2 0.84 20% 1.1 .23 14% .22 54% .12 0.84 50% 36% 31% -5 0 0.91 18% 0.0 .00 13% .15 67% .10
Jan
29		 Hawaii C F+ A+ F B- 53% 31% 17% C- B- B+ C B- D A+ C- A A A+ A+ F A 40% 10% 50% C- A- A+ A+ A+ D+ A- F C+
1.02 45% 61% 20% -3 0 0.95 33% 1.0 .33 19% .42 66% .28 0.90 32% 0% 42% -8 +2 0.89 19% 0.4 .09 18% .27 89% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Cal St. Bakersfield D- C- B- F F 57% 20% 23% B D- C+ F F A+ A+ F C+ A- A+ C- A+ A- 28% 54% 18% A+ A+ D D D- A+ B+ F D+
1.07 56% 45% 15% -6 +1 0.93 40% 0.6 .23 10% .47 58% .27 0.85 29% 37% 22% -12 -5 0.68 37% 1.1 .39 26% .30 94% .28
Feb
7		 UC Santa Barbara C+ A+ D B+ B- 36% 41% 23% F C D F D- B F A+ F+ C- D+ F A D 36% 28% 36% A- C- F B- D+ B- F C+ F
1.11 75% 35% 38% +6 -3 1.09 23% 0.9 .19 15% .22 92% .20 1.18 65% 69% 29% +9 -1 1.17 39% 0.9 .36 20% .44 76% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.4 14.0 18.6 8.0 45.4 1st
2nd 0.3 5.4 15.6 13.3 2.9 37.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 6.8 3.1 0.1 12.4 3rd
4th 0.5 1.8 0.9 3.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.9 13.4 23.1 27.4 21.5 8.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 8.0    6.7 1.4
16-4 86.7% 18.6    12.0 6.7 0.0
15-5 51.2% 14.0    5.3 7.5 1.1 0.0
14-6 19.1% 4.4    0.6 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 45.4% 45.4 24.5 17.8 2.7 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 8.0% 36.3% 36.3% 12.3 0.2 1.7 1.0 0.0 5.1
16-4 21.5% 33.4% 33.4% 12.9 0.0 1.7 4.4 1.1 0.0 14.3
15-5 27.4% 29.6% 29.6% 13.2 0.0 1.0 4.8 2.3 0.1 19.3
14-6 23.1% 21.0% 21.0% 13.4 0.2 2.6 2.0 0.1 18.2
13-7 13.4% 12.0% 12.0% 13.6 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 11.8
12-8 4.9% 10.6% 10.6% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.4
11-9 1.5% 4.1% 4.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-10 0.2% 0.2
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 25.2% 25.2% 0.0% 13.1 74.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 12.3 5.1 59.6 34.6 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5%