UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#67
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#50
Pace72.3#81
Improvement-3.4#321

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#181
First Shot+0.2#165
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#200
Layup/Dunks+3.2#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#326
Freethrows+2.1#67
Improvement-1.0#250

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#20
First Shot+5.9#32
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#38
Layups/Dunks+3.5#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#172
Freethrows+3.2#14
Improvement-2.4#300
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.5% 47.2% 38.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 3.8% 1.1%
Average Seed 11.2 11.1 11.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 78.3% 94.1% 54.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.9% 0.7%
First Round42.7% 46.2% 37.6%
Second Round10.4% 11.6% 8.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.3% 2.0%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 59.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 24 - 15 - 2
Quad 311 - 316 - 5
Quad 412 - 027 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 136   @ Loyola Marymount W 66-51 65%     1 - 0 +19.0 -1.9 +21.1
  Nov 10, 2024 108   @ Northern Iowa W 80-60 56%     2 - 0 +26.5 +10.0 +16.7
  Nov 16, 2024 217   Pepperdine W 80-62 89%     3 - 0 +12.4 +5.0 +7.4
  Nov 22, 2024 286   @ Weber St. W 93-87 87%     4 - 0 +1.7 +9.8 -8.5
  Nov 28, 2024 170   Kennesaw St. W 76-59 78%     5 - 0 +16.8 -0.8 +16.6
  Nov 29, 2024 148   Kent St. W 51-39 75%     6 - 0 +13.0 -11.7 +26.1
  Nov 30, 2024 160   Towson W 67-60 77%     7 - 0 +7.4 -0.5 +8.3
  Dec 05, 2024 258   Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-66 92%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +8.0 +5.1 +3.0
  Dec 14, 2024 76   @ Oregon St. L 55-67 42%     8 - 1 -2.0 -15.6 +13.7
  Dec 19, 2024 140   @ Belmont W 92-84 66%     9 - 1 +11.8 +8.4 +2.6
  Dec 21, 2024 142   @ Duquesne L 54-70 66%     9 - 2 -12.3 -6.0 -9.1
  Dec 30, 2024 161   @ California Baptist W 71-63 69%     10 - 2 +10.8 +1.5 +9.6
  Jan 02, 2025 276   @ Cal Poly W 98-89 OT 87%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +5.1 -0.1 +3.2
  Jan 04, 2025 163   UC Riverside W 81-57 83%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +21.7 +8.8 +13.6
  Jan 09, 2025 127   @ Cal St. Northridge W 77-67 63%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +14.6 +1.4 +12.4
  Jan 11, 2025 65   @ UC San Diego W 60-52 40%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +18.7 +1.0 +18.8
  Jan 16, 2025 317   Cal St. Fullerton W 82-62 96%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +8.3 -0.7 +7.7
  Jan 18, 2025 276   Cal Poly W 101-71 93%     16 - 2 7 - 0 +21.1 +10.9 +6.8
  Jan 23, 2025 163   @ UC Riverside L 80-84 OT 70%     16 - 3 7 - 1 -1.3 -3.0 +2.2
  Jan 25, 2025 180   Hawaii W 71-55 86%     17 - 3 8 - 1 +12.6 -4.8 +17.0
  Jan 30, 2025 305   @ Long Beach St. W 80-75 OT 90%     18 - 3 9 - 1 -0.7 +2.3 -3.1
  Feb 01, 2025 216   UC Davis W 73-66 89%     19 - 3 10 - 1 +1.4 +2.0 -0.6
  Feb 08, 2025 65   UC San Diego W 69-67 60%    
  Feb 13, 2025 158   UC Santa Barbara W 74-64 83%    
  Feb 16, 2025 180   @ Hawaii W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 20, 2025 127   Cal St. Northridge W 79-71 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 258   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 27, 2025 317   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 76-61 91%    
  Mar 01, 2025 305   Long Beach St. W 78-59 96%    
  Mar 06, 2025 216   @ UC Davis W 71-62 78%    
  Mar 08, 2025 158   @ UC Santa Barbara W 71-66 67%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 9.4 26.7 28.1 12.6 78.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 6.2 8.4 3.7 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.6 8.0 17.8 30.4 28.1 12.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 12.6    12.6
18-2 100.0% 28.1    26.2 1.9
17-3 87.8% 26.7    17.7 9.0 0.0
16-4 52.9% 9.4    4.1 5.0 0.4
15-5 18.2% 1.5    0.3 0.8 0.3
14-6 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 78.3% 78.3 60.9 16.7 0.7 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 12.6% 56.7% 51.0% 5.7% 10.4 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.6 3.9 0.3 5.4 11.5%
18-2 28.1% 48.7% 46.5% 2.2% 11.2 0.0 0.8 9.4 3.5 0.0 14.4 4.1%
17-3 30.4% 42.4% 41.8% 0.5% 11.5 0.1 6.9 5.8 0.1 17.5 0.9%
16-4 17.8% 35.8% 35.7% 0.2% 11.6 2.6 3.6 0.2 0.0 11.4 0.3%
15-5 8.0% 32.5% 32.5% 11.8 0.7 1.8 0.1 5.4
14-6 2.6% 28.6% 28.6% 11.8 0.2 0.5 0.0 1.9
13-7 0.5% 18.8% 18.8% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.4
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 43.5% 42.0% 1.5% 11.2 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.5 23.6 15.6 0.4 0.0 56.5 2.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.4% 100.0% 10.3 1.6 3.4 15.8 24.4 50.8 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.9% 13.1% 11.0 1.0 11.6 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.3% 8.8% 11.0 1.3 6.6 0.9