UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.5 #123
Expected Predictive Rating +1.2 #146
Pace 70.8 #129
Improvement +0.9 #138

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #247 D B- C C D+
Defense #49 A C C B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #71 1.04 #310 +0.0 #179
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #50 0.71 #241 +2.2 #76
Three Pointers 30% #355 0.99 #222 -6.3 #343
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #294 -4.1 #294
Freethrows 18.5 #130 67% #326 12.4 #198
Second Chance 31.5% #155 1.15 #56 0.36 #96
Turnovers 16.8% #208
Total Offense -2.7 #247

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #192 0.88 #2 +5.4 #33
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #92 0.72 #114 -0.6 #223
Three Pointers 38% #262 1.01 #176 +1.6 #124
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #23 +6.5 #23
Freethrows 15.1 #73 74% #248 11.2 #96
Second Chance 34.1% #310 0.92 #36 0.31 #165
Turnovers 16.8% #165
Total Defense +5.1 #49

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #269 -0.7% #108
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.0% #292 -12.0% #20
Possession Length 17.0 #137 17.2 #163
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #187 0.17 #181
Improvement +3.5 #23 -2.7 #321

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 26.2% 18.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 97.9% 99.5% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.8% 98.5%
Conference Champion 33.6% 51.3% 24.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round21.1% 26.2% 18.5%
Second Round1.4% 2.1% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 36 - 77 - 11
Quad 413 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 142 California Baptist L 61 - 69 67% -3  0 - 1 -10 -13 F F B- +3 B B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 217 Weber St. W 79 - 70 80% +8  1 - 1 +3 -5 D+ F C- +7 A+ A- C
 Wed, Nov 19 107 @Utah Valley L 72 - 79 32% -6  1 - 2 +0 +3 F B A -3 C C F
 Sat, Nov 22 110 Northern Iowa L 69 - 70 OT 57% -3  1 - 3 -0 +0 D A+ A+ -0 B A F
 Tue, Nov 25 133 New Mexico St. L 45 - 57 53% -5  1 - 4 -10 -29 F F F +18 A+ D A+
 Wed, Nov 26 170 South Dakota St. W 64 - 52 63% +7  2 - 4 +11 -13 F F F +24 A+ A+ A-
 Sun, Nov 30 238 @San Jose St. W 72 - 63 64% +5  3 - 4 +8 +1 F C B+ +7 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Dec 4 293 UC Riverside W 73 - 60 88% +11  4 - 4 1 - 0 +2 -3 C- D D +6 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 207 Cal St. Northridge W 85 - 71 79% -0  5 - 4 2 - 0 +8 +9 D+ A+ C -1 B A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 82 Belmont L 58 - 84 43% -8  5 - 5 -22 -14 F F A+ -8 F C A
 Sun, Dec 21 147 North Dakota St. W 74 - 73 56% +3  6 - 5 +2 +6 C+ B+ A- -4 C- F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 291 Norfolk St. W 89 - 70 82% +16  7 - 5 +12 +17 B A+ B -5 C- F A
 Thu, Jan 1 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 77 76% +6  8 - 5 3 - 0 -1 +7 B A F -8 C F F
 Sat, Jan 3 229 @Cal St. Fullerton W 86 - 64 63% +9  9 - 5 4 - 0 +21 +15 A+ A+ D- +7 A+ D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 8 250 Long Beach St. W 74 - 64 83% +7  10 - 5 5 - 0 +2 -4 F F A+ +6 B- A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 106 @Hawaii L 66 - 67 31% -2  10 - 6 5 - 1 +6 +0 D- A+ F +6 B A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 181 @UC Davis L 72 - 75 54% -2  10 - 7 5 - 2 -1 +1 C- C+ F -3 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 293 @UC Riverside W 80 - 66 75% +10  11 - 7 6 - 2 +9 +5 D- A+ F +5 A+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 24 109 @UC San Diego L 69 - 73 34%
 Thu, Jan 29 106 Hawaii W 68 - 67 54%
 Thu, Feb 5 299 Cal St. Bakersfield W 78 - 65 89%
 Sat, Feb 7 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 71 - 72 44%
 Thu, Feb 12 281 @Cal Poly W 82 - 76 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 229 Cal St. Fullerton W 81 - 72 81%
 Thu, Feb 19 250 @Long Beach St. W 73 - 69 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 109 UC San Diego W 72 - 70 56%
 Thu, Feb 26 207 @Cal St. Northridge W 78 - 76 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 144 UC Santa Barbara W 74 - 69 66%
 Thu, Mar 5 281 Cal Poly W 85 - 73 87%
 Sat, Mar 7 181 UC Davis W 76 - 69 74%
Totals 19 - 11 14 - 6 +2 -3 D B- C +5 A C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.5 11.3 10.3 4.7 0.9 33.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 7.0 12.5 7.1 1.6 0.1 29.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.9 9.7 3.5 0.2 20.2 3rd
4th 0.4 3.1 5.1 1.5 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.7 12.6 19.0 21.6 18.6 11.9 4.8 0.9 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-3 98.6% 4.7    4.3 0.5
16-4 86.4% 10.3    7.6 2.6 0.1
15-5 60.7% 11.3    5.4 5.0 0.9 0.0
14-6 25.7% 5.5    1.2 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.2% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.6% 33.6 19.6 11.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.9% 41.0% 41.0% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5
17-3 4.8% 35.6% 35.6% 12.6 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.1 3.1
16-4 11.9% 33.9% 33.9% 12.9 0.0 1.1 2.3 0.6 0.0 7.9
15-5 18.6% 28.4% 28.4% 13.2 0.7 3.0 1.5 0.1 13.3
14-6 21.6% 23.8% 23.8% 13.4 0.3 2.4 2.2 0.2 16.4
13-7 19.0% 15.2% 15.2% 13.7 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.3 16.1
12-8 12.6% 8.9% 8.9% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 11.5
11-9 6.7% 6.0% 6.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.3
10-10 2.9% 3.7% 3.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.8
9-11 0.9% 2.9% 2.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.8
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.1% 21.1% 0.0% 13.3 78.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.8 25.3 72.0 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%