UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#70
Expected Predictive Rating+10.4#54
Pace71.2#92
Improvement-4.1#327

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#159
First Shot+0.6#146
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#197
Layup/Dunks+3.3#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#178
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#318
Freethrows+2.2#58
Improvement+1.0#143

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#27
First Shot+5.4#42
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#45
Layups/Dunks+3.3#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#177
Freethrows+3.1#15
Improvement-5.1#354
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.8% 44.2% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 1.9% 1.1%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 11.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
First Round34.1% 43.4% 0.4%
Second Round7.1% 9.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.9% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 1
Quad 23 - 25 - 3
Quad 311 - 316 - 6
Quad 411 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 157   @ Loyola Marymount W 66-51 68%     1 - 0 +18.0 -2.4 +20.6
  Nov 10, 2024 103   @ Northern Iowa W 80-60 54%     2 - 0 +26.8 +11.5 +15.5
  Nov 16, 2024 217   Pepperdine W 80-62 89%     3 - 0 +12.2 +3.0 +9.3
  Nov 22, 2024 284   @ Weber St. W 93-87 87%     4 - 0 +1.6 +10.9 -9.7
  Nov 28, 2024 137   Kennesaw St. W 76-59 73%     5 - 0 +18.4 +0.8 +16.6
  Nov 29, 2024 133   Kent St. W 51-39 72%     6 - 0 +13.7 -14.2 +29.4
  Nov 30, 2024 150   Towson W 67-60 76%     7 - 0 +7.6 -1.7 +9.6
  Dec 05, 2024 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-66 91%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +8.7 +4.7 +4.2
  Dec 14, 2024 89   @ Oregon St. L 55-67 47%     8 - 1 -3.4 -18.0 +14.7
  Dec 19, 2024 127   @ Belmont W 92-84 62%     9 - 1 +12.7 +10.3 +1.7
  Dec 21, 2024 122   @ Duquesne L 54-70 61%     9 - 2 -10.9 -6.1 -7.5
  Dec 30, 2024 162   @ California Baptist W 71-63 69%     10 - 2 +10.6 +3.2 +7.8
  Jan 02, 2025 194   @ Cal Poly W 98-89 OT 74%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +10.0 +2.3 +5.6
  Jan 04, 2025 142   UC Riverside W 81-57 82%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +22.3 +8.0 +14.9
  Jan 09, 2025 113   @ Cal St. Northridge W 77-67 57%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +16.1 +1.0 +14.3
  Jan 11, 2025 47   @ UC San Diego W 60-52 27%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +22.1 +2.7 +20.4
  Jan 16, 2025 351   Cal St. Fullerton W 82-62 98%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +4.0 -1.5 +4.2
  Jan 18, 2025 194   Cal Poly W 101-71 87%     16 - 2 7 - 0 +25.4 +13.1 +8.9
  Jan 23, 2025 142   @ UC Riverside L 80-84 OT 65%     16 - 3 7 - 1 -0.2 -3.5 +3.8
  Jan 25, 2025 221   Hawaii W 71-55 90%     17 - 3 8 - 1 +9.9 -5.7 +15.2
  Jan 30, 2025 294   @ Long Beach St. W 80-75 OT 88%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +0.1 +3.5 -3.5
  Feb 01, 2025 236   UC Davis W 73-66 91%     19 - 3 10 - 1 +0.2 +1.5 -1.2
  Feb 08, 2025 47   UC San Diego L 67-85 47%     19 - 4 10 - 2 -9.4 +0.1 -9.8
  Feb 13, 2025 152   UC Santa Barbara W 62-60 83%     20 - 4 11 - 2 -0.4 -10.1 +9.9
  Feb 15, 2025 221   @ Hawaii W 66-49 79%     21 - 4 12 - 2 +16.4 -1.1 +18.8
  Feb 20, 2025 113   Cal St. Northridge L 72-84 76%     21 - 5 12 - 3 -11.4 +1.7 -13.5
  Feb 22, 2025 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-64 82%     22 - 5 13 - 3 +7.2 -2.0 +9.3
  Feb 27, 2025 351   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 76-51 95%     23 - 5 14 - 3 +14.5 +0.9 +13.6
  Mar 01, 2025 294   Long Beach St. W 70-60 95%     24 - 5 15 - 3 -0.4 +4.6 -3.1
  Mar 06, 2025 236   @ UC Davis W 88-59 81%     25 - 5 16 - 3 +27.7 +22.7 +6.2
  Mar 08, 2025 152   @ UC Santa Barbara W 97-88 68%     26 - 5 17 - 3 +12.1 +19.1 -7.4
Projected Record 26 - 5 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0%
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 34.8% 33.7% 1.1% 11.5 0.2 15.7 18.8 0.0 65.2 1.6%
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 34.8% 33.7% 1.1% 11.5 0.2 15.7 18.8 0.0 65.2 1.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 33.7% 100.0% 11.5 0.7 44.7 54.6 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 44.5% 1.9% 11.4 1.1 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 21.8% 1.1% 11.3 0.7 0.4