Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#276
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#229
Pace81.7#3
Improvement-4.0#327

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#229
First Shot-2.7#252
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#137
Layup/Dunks-0.8#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#71
Freethrows-2.0#298
Improvement-2.1#298

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#303
First Shot-3.4#281
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#275
Layups/Dunks-2.0#260
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#247
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#238
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement-1.9#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.8 15.7
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 17.7% 9.3% 23.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 40.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 32 - 83 - 17
Quad 47 - 411 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 72   @ San Francisco L 78-86 7%     0 - 1 +2.1 -0.2 +3.4
  Nov 07, 2024 116   @ California L 73-91 14%     0 - 2 -12.7 -4.6 -6.7
  Nov 14, 2024 162   Seattle W 75-71 34%     1 - 2 +1.7 -1.6 +3.1
  Nov 17, 2024 252   @ Eastern Washington W 82-78 36%     2 - 2 +1.2 -0.5 +1.2
  Nov 20, 2024 61   @ Arizona St. L 89-93 6%     2 - 3 +7.5 +13.9 -6.0
  Nov 23, 2024 31   @ St. Mary's L 66-80 3%     2 - 4 +2.6 +0.9 +2.0
  Nov 26, 2024 339   Grambling St. W 82-79 77%     3 - 4 -11.1 +4.0 -15.2
  Nov 30, 2024 78   @ Stanford W 97-90 7%     4 - 4 +16.9 +19.2 -3.0
  Dec 05, 2024 216   @ UC Davis L 66-77 29%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -11.7 -12.1 +2.1
  Dec 07, 2024 127   Cal St. Northridge L 91-102 28%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -11.4 +4.1 -13.8
  Dec 14, 2024 146   @ San Jose St. L 100-107 OT 17%     4 - 7 -3.4 +5.6 -7.5
  Dec 17, 2024 331   Denver W 95-94 OT 74%     5 - 7 -12.1 -0.1 -12.2
  Dec 21, 2024 212   @ Nebraska Omaha L 82-86 28%     5 - 8 -4.2 +3.6 -7.6
  Jan 02, 2025 67   UC Irvine L 89-98 OT 13%     5 - 9 0 - 3 -3.5 +2.8 -4.3
  Jan 04, 2025 180   @ Hawaii L 55-68 22%     5 - 10 0 - 4 -11.4 -11.5 -1.1
  Jan 09, 2025 65   @ UC San Diego L 68-95 6%     5 - 11 0 - 5 -16.3 +2.3 -19.0
  Jan 11, 2025 158   UC Santa Barbara L 72-75 34%     5 - 12 0 - 6 -5.1 +2.9 -8.2
  Jan 16, 2025 216   UC Davis L 54-65 47%     5 - 13 0 - 7 -16.6 -9.7 -8.5
  Jan 18, 2025 67   @ UC Irvine L 71-101 7%     5 - 14 0 - 8 -19.5 -0.8 -15.3
  Jan 25, 2025 305   Long Beach St. W 78-69 66%     6 - 14 1 - 8 -1.7 -3.7 +1.7
  Jan 30, 2025 258   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 90-81 37%     7 - 14 2 - 8 +5.9 +9.3 -3.9
  Feb 01, 2025 163   @ UC Riverside L 62-80 20%     7 - 15 2 - 9 -15.3 -7.2 -8.9
  Feb 06, 2025 180   Hawaii L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 13, 2025 317   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 79-78 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 127   @ Cal St. Northridge L 80-91 14%    
  Feb 20, 2025 65   UC San Diego L 72-84 14%    
  Feb 22, 2025 163   UC Riverside L 78-82 36%    
  Feb 27, 2025 158   @ UC Santa Barbara L 74-83 18%    
  Mar 01, 2025 258   Cal St. Bakersfield W 80-78 58%    
  Mar 06, 2025 317   Cal St. Fullerton W 81-76 71%    
  Mar 08, 2025 305   @ Long Beach St. L 78-79 45%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.8 6.6 9.1 3.1 0.2 19.8 8th
9th 0.0 2.8 14.0 15.4 4.5 0.3 37.1 9th
10th 3.2 12.4 10.1 2.3 0.1 28.1 10th
11th 1.3 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.1 11th
Total 1.3 7.6 17.4 25.1 24.5 15.3 7.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10 0.2% 0.2
9-11 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 1.6
8-12 7.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.0
7-13 15.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
6-14 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.5
5-15 25.1% 25.1
4-16 17.4% 17.4
3-17 7.6% 7.6
2-18 1.3% 1.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%