Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#265
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#176
Pace85.6#1
Improvement-3.6#346

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#232
First Shot-2.6#251
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#143
Layup/Dunks-0.8#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#79
Freethrows-2.1#296
Improvement+0.1#167

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#288
First Shot-3.6#298
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#184
Layups/Dunks-1.4#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#292
Freethrows+1.3#89
Improvement-3.6#359
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.3
.500 or above 6.4% 10.6% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 7.6% 9.4% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.6% 31.5% 38.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Away) - 44.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 32 - 84 - 16
Quad 48 - 412 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 59   @ San Francisco L 78-86 6%     0 - 1 +4.3 +3.0 +2.4
  Nov 07, 2024 118   @ California L 73-91 14%     0 - 2 -12.3 -5.6 -5.3
  Nov 14, 2024 170   Seattle W 75-71 42%     1 - 2 +0.4 -3.8 +4.0
  Nov 17, 2024 254   @ Eastern Washington W 82-78 37%     2 - 2 +1.9 -3.5 +4.9
  Nov 20, 2024 62   @ Arizona St. L 89-93 6%     2 - 3 +8.0 +12.9 -4.5
  Nov 23, 2024 43   @ St. Mary's L 66-80 5%     2 - 4 -0.2 -1.0 +1.1
  Nov 26, 2024 308   Grambling St. W 82-79 70%     3 - 4 -8.1 +3.8 -11.9
  Nov 30, 2024 94   @ Stanford W 97-90 9%     4 - 4 +16.0 +18.4 -3.0
  Dec 05, 2024 185   @ UC Davis L 66-77 24%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -9.2 -11.1 +3.5
  Dec 07, 2024 158   Cal St. Northridge L 91-102 40%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -14.1 +2.8 -15.2
  Dec 14, 2024 189   @ San Jose St. L 100-107 OT 24%     4 - 7 -5.3 +4.4 -8.1
  Dec 17, 2024 318   Denver W 95-94 OT 72%     5 - 7 -10.8 +0.0 -11.0
  Dec 21, 2024 298   @ Nebraska Omaha L 80-81 44%    
  Jan 02, 2025 60   UC Irvine L 74-86 13%    
  Jan 05, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 74-82 23%    
  Jan 09, 2025 91   @ UC San Diego L 72-87 8%    
  Jan 11, 2025 138   UC Santa Barbara L 78-82 36%    
  Jan 16, 2025 185   UC Davis L 80-81 45%    
  Jan 18, 2025 60   @ UC Irvine L 71-89 5%    
  Jan 25, 2025 261   Long Beach St. W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 229   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 75-80 33%    
  Feb 01, 2025 171   @ UC Riverside L 76-84 23%    
  Feb 06, 2025 174   Hawaii L 77-79 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 275   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 158   @ Cal St. Northridge L 82-91 22%    
  Feb 20, 2025 91   UC San Diego L 75-84 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 171   UC Riverside L 79-81 43%    
  Feb 27, 2025 138   @ UC Santa Barbara L 75-85 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 229   Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-77 53%    
  Mar 06, 2025 275   Cal St. Fullerton W 78-74 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 261   @ Long Beach St. L 77-80 39%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.2 1.4 0.2 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.2 3.7 0.5 0.0 13.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.5 4.7 0.8 0.0 17.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.9 8.3 5.1 1.0 0.0 22.6 10th
11th 0.3 1.8 4.6 7.0 6.6 3.4 0.7 0.0 24.4 11th
Total 0.3 1.8 4.9 9.0 13.2 15.5 15.9 14.0 10.5 7.2 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 6.3% 0.0    0.0
14-6 10.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 10.2% 10.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.3% 4.0% 4.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.9% 3.3% 3.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-9 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
10-10 4.1% 0.8% 0.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
9-11 7.2% 0.5% 0.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2
8-12 10.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 10.5
7-13 14.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 14.0
6-14 15.9% 15.9
5-15 15.5% 15.5
4-16 13.2% 13.2
3-17 9.0% 9.0
2-18 4.9% 4.9
1-19 1.8% 1.8
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%