Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#194
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#196
Pace85.0#1
Improvement+4.0#32

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#165
First Shot-0.8#196
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#120
Layup/Dunks-0.2#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#52
Freethrows-1.8#286
Improvement+1.1#134

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#234
First Shot-1.3#223
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#252
Layups/Dunks-1.3#231
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#228
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#207
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement+2.8#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 51 - 10
Quad 32 - 73 - 17
Quad 411 - 214 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 67   @ San Francisco L 78-86 12%     0 - 1 +3.0 +0.9 +3.2
  Nov 07, 2024 105   @ California L 73-91 21%     0 - 2 -11.3 -2.8 -7.2
  Nov 14, 2024 147   Seattle W 75-71 50%     1 - 2 +2.1 +0.3 +1.6
  Nov 17, 2024 295   @ Eastern Washington W 82-78 62%     2 - 2 -0.9 -2.2 +0.8
  Nov 20, 2024 73   @ Arizona St. L 89-93 13%     2 - 3 +6.3 +11.3 -4.5
  Nov 23, 2024 26   @ St. Mary's L 66-80 5%     2 - 4 +3.6 +2.3 +1.6
  Nov 26, 2024 330   Grambling St. W 82-79 86%     3 - 4 -10.4 +4.7 -15.1
  Nov 30, 2024 84   @ Stanford W 97-90 15%     4 - 4 +16.4 +20.8 -5.0
  Dec 05, 2024 236   @ UC Davis L 66-77 48%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -12.3 -12.4 +1.7
  Dec 07, 2024 113   Cal St. Northridge L 91-102 41%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -10.4 +3.5 -12.1
  Dec 14, 2024 156   @ San Jose St. L 100-107 OT 32%     4 - 7 -4.0 +5.7 -8.1
  Dec 17, 2024 302   Denver W 95-94 OT 80%     5 - 7 -9.9 +2.6 -12.7
  Dec 21, 2024 149   @ Nebraska Omaha L 82-86 31%     5 - 8 -0.5 +4.4 -4.8
  Jan 02, 2025 70   UC Irvine L 89-98 OT 26%     5 - 9 0 - 3 -3.9 +2.0 -3.9
  Jan 04, 2025 221   @ Hawaii L 55-68 45%     5 - 10 0 - 4 -13.6 -12.2 -2.6
  Jan 09, 2025 47   @ UC San Diego L 68-95 8%     5 - 11 0 - 5 -12.9 +4.0 -17.4
  Jan 11, 2025 152   UC Santa Barbara L 72-75 52%     5 - 12 0 - 6 -5.4 +1.9 -7.5
  Jan 16, 2025 236   UC Davis L 54-65 69%     5 - 13 0 - 7 -17.8 -10.2 -9.1
  Jan 18, 2025 70   @ UC Irvine L 71-101 13%     5 - 14 0 - 8 -19.4 -1.3 -14.7
  Jan 25, 2025 294   Long Beach St. W 78-69 79%     6 - 14 1 - 8 -1.4 -2.7 +1.0
  Jan 30, 2025 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 90-81 50%     7 - 14 2 - 8 +7.2 +9.1 -2.4
  Feb 01, 2025 142   @ UC Riverside L 62-80 30%     7 - 15 2 - 9 -14.2 -7.8 -7.3
  Feb 06, 2025 221   Hawaii W 79-63 66%     8 - 15 3 - 9 +9.9 +7.7 +3.0
  Feb 13, 2025 351   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 98-83 80%     9 - 15 4 - 9 +4.5 +5.2 -3.3
  Feb 15, 2025 113   @ Cal St. Northridge L 85-89 23%     9 - 16 4 - 10 +2.1 -0.6 +3.4
  Feb 20, 2025 47   UC San Diego L 67-81 17%     9 - 17 4 - 11 -5.4 -0.8 -4.6
  Feb 22, 2025 142   UC Riverside W 112-100 OT 50%     10 - 17 5 - 11 +10.3 +13.0 -5.3
  Feb 27, 2025 152   @ UC Santa Barbara L 77-96 32%     10 - 18 5 - 12 -15.9 -3.7 -10.3
  Mar 01, 2025 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 98-72 70%     11 - 18 6 - 12 +18.7 +9.2 +6.7
  Mar 06, 2025 351   Cal St. Fullerton W 100-61 90%     12 - 18 7 - 12 +23.0 +11.0 +7.7
  Mar 08, 2025 294   @ Long Beach St. W 83-69 62%     13 - 18 8 - 12 +9.1 +6.3 +2.7
  Mar 12, 2025 236   UC Davis W 78-76 59%    
Projected Record 14 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 100.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.6 99.4
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 15.9 6.6 93.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 18.7%
Lose Out 42.0%