Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.7 #281
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #245
Pace 84.6 #1
Improvement -2.4 #294

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #268 C C- F B- A
Defense #276 D+ C- D+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #217 1.08 #272 -2.3 #266
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #359 0.45 #365 -6.0 #365
Three Pointers 55% #2 1.03 #169 +7.6 #13
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #205 -0.8 #204
Freethrows 19.3 #94 73% #179 14.1 #96
Second Chance 29.4% #223 0.98 #260 0.29 #240
Turnovers 20.1% #348
Total Offense -3.4 #268

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 1.26 #305 -2.3 #257
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #306 0.71 #105 +2.0 #42
Three Pointers 45% #80 1.01 #183 -1.7 #261
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #245 -2.0 #245
Freethrows 16.7 #156 74% #237 12.3 #167
Second Chance 30.5% #182 1.11 #276 0.34 #241
Turnovers 14.9% #274
Total Defense -3.3 #276

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.1% #21 1.2% #278
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.4% #249 2.8% #231
Possession Length 14.6 #8 16.9 #111
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #148 0.21 #303
Improvement -0.3 #199 -2.1 #298

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 10.1% 16.3% 3.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.3% 11.7% 29.2%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 50.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 33 - 85 - 13
Quad 44 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 48 @USC L 64 - 94 4% -12  0 - 1 -16 -11 D+ C- F -1 C A- C
 Sat, Nov 8 121 @Seattle W 73 - 71 13% -4  1 - 1 +8 +2 B+ C F +5 D+ B A+
 Wed, Nov 12 96 @Colorado St. L 79 - 93 9% -9  1 - 2 -6 +1 B F D -6 C B+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 161 @Montana L 82 - 90 18% -7  1 - 3 -5 -1 C D+ F -3 A+ D- F
 Thu, Nov 20 104 @Utah W 92 - 85 10% +7  2 - 3 +15 +5 A+ C F +8 B- A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 315 @Northern Arizona L 87 - 93 49% -0  2 - 4 -12 -0 B- F F -11 F F D
 Tue, Nov 25 245 Southeast Missouri St. L 68 - 84 42% -3  2 - 5 -21 -10 F A- F -10 D C C-
 Thu, Dec 4 229 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94 - 91 29% +5  3 - 5 1 - 0 +2 +5 A+ F F -3 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 293 UC Riverside L 84 - 88 65% -7  3 - 6 1 - 1 -15 +5 B+ F F -19 F F F
 Tue, Dec 16 152 Montana St. L 80 - 83 34% -3  3 - 7 -5 +4 F A+ C -10 A- F F
 Fri, Dec 19 36 @UCLA L 87 - 108 3% -7  3 - 8 -5 +12 A+ C- F -14 F A+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 183 Idaho L 80 - 83 OT 42% -7  3 - 9 -8 -9 F F D- +1 B- C+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 109 UC San Diego W 67 - 65 23% -2  4 - 9 2 - 1 +3 -2 F C B+ +5 A+ F B
 Sat, Jan 3 250 @Long Beach St. L 66 - 74 32% -10  4 - 10 2 - 2 -10 -8 F C B- -1 C- C C
 Thu, Jan 8 207 @Cal St. Northridge L 90 - 95 26% +3  4 - 11 2 - 3 -5 +5 C C- D+ -9 F D- C
 Sat, Jan 10 181 UC Davis W 84 - 78 42% -6  5 - 11 3 - 3 +2 +4 D- C A+ -3 A C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 15 106 Hawaii L 66 - 86 22% -8  5 - 12 3 - 4 -19 -9 B- B- F -8 F B- C
 Thu, Jan 22 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 67 - 107 16% -24  5 - 13 3 - 5 -36 -4 C F F -34 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 229 Cal St. Fullerton W 88 - 87 51%
 Thu, Jan 29 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 82 - 84 43%
 Sat, Jan 31 293 @UC Riverside L 80 - 82 42%
 Thu, Feb 5 207 Cal St. Northridge L 88 - 89 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 181 @UC Davis L 79 - 87 22%
 Thu, Feb 12 123 UC Irvine L 76 - 82 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 144 UC Santa Barbara L 79 - 84 34%
 Fri, Feb 20 106 @Hawaii L 71 - 85 9%
 Thu, Feb 26 250 Long Beach St. W 82 - 81 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 109 @UC San Diego L 74 - 88 11%
 Thu, Mar 5 123 @UC Irvine L 73 - 85 13%
 Sat, Mar 7 299 Cal St. Bakersfield W 85 - 81 65%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 13 -7 -3 C C- F -3 D+ C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.3 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 2.7 1.0 0.1 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 4.9 2.6 0.2 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 7.0 5.3 0.7 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 7.9 8.3 1.5 0.0 18.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 8.7 10.4 2.7 0.1 23.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 5.9 7.6 1.9 0.1 16.6 10th
11th 0.9 3.6 4.3 1.3 0.1 10.1 11th
Total 0.9 4.7 11.7 18.7 21.4 19.6 12.9 6.5 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 20.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 10.0% 10.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.9% 3.4% 3.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-9 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.4
10-10 6.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.5
9-11 12.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.8
8-12 19.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.5
7-13 21.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.4
6-14 18.7% 18.7
5-15 11.7% 11.7
4-16 4.7% 4.7
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.8 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%