Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.4 203
Results Rating -1.2 178
Consistency 0.16 208
Pace 79.1 6
Improvement +1.7 131

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 175 C+ D B- C+ C
Defense C- 225 D C B- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 236 C+ 59% 145 -0.8 208
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 181 C- 36% 230 -0.3 195
Three Pointers 43% 144 B- 36% 106 +2.0 109
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.2 212 C+ +1.1 123
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 139
Second Chance D 25.0% 322 C- 0.99 241 D 0.25 315
Opponents' Steals B- 8.7% 100
Other Turnovers C+ 6.8% 122
Turnovers B- 15.4% 100
Freethrows C+ 0.32 136 C- 72% 216 C+ 0.23 145
Total Offense C -0.4 175

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D 40% 301 C- 11.6% 225
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 54 C+ 4.3% 133
Three Pointers B 91% 35 B- 0.5% 95
Total C+ 57% 151 C+ 5.4% 167


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 300 D- 65% 339 -0.2 172
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 322 D 42% 328 -1.1 102
Three Pointers 50% 9 C- 35% 237 +5.4 350
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 220 D +3.8 322
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 319
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 145 C 1.04 192 C 0.30 163
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.0% 146
Other Turnovers B 8.2% 64
Turnovers B- 18.2% 90
Freethrows C 0.30 192 C 73% 203 C 0.22 191
Total Defense C- -1.9 225

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 186 D 7.0% 324
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 262 C+ 5.5% 121
Three Pointers D- 90% 344 B+ 1.8% 40
Total D 62% 313 D+ 4.2% 292

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.0 14 17.3 175
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 14 0.18 229
Consistency 0.13 251 0.12 131
Improvement +2.3 76 -0.6 220

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 225 201 176
Results Rating Rank 223 183 155
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.4
.500 or above 11% 20% 3%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 45.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 96 - 15
Quad 49 - 214 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 101 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 17% -3  14% 0 - 1 C- -2 D+ -4 D F+ F+ B +4 C+ B D-
 Mon, Nov 10 73 @California L 65 - 93 11% -16  0% 0 - 2 F+ -17 F -10 C- F D+ D+ -4 B C- F
 Sat, Nov 15 127 Pacific L 73 - 85 43% -14  0% 0 - 3 D- -12 F+ -9 F D A+ C- -2 F A A-
 Fri, Nov 21 216 @Portland L 85 - 103 41% -13  2% 0 - 4 F -18 C +1 A F C+ F -18 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 112 St. Thomas W 88 - 80 29% -1  39% 1 - 4 B+ +11 B +6 C+ D- A- B+ +5 A+ D D-
 Sun, Nov 23 149 Northern Colorado L 93 - 97 39% -4  13% 1 - 5 C- -3 B- +5 C+ D- A+ D- -8 C+ F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 270 Pepperdine W 83 - 69 74% +5  72% 2 - 5 B- +5 C+ +2 C B- B+ B- +2 B+ B+ C
 Thu, Dec 4 227 Cal Poly L 91 - 94 67% -5  6% 2 - 6 0 - 1 D -10 D -5 C C- F D+ -4 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 118 @Hawaii L 59 - 69 21% -9  1% 2 - 7 0 - 2 C- -4 F -12 F F A- A +9 B B- B-
 Sat, Dec 13 245 @Denver W 105 - 86 47% +19  96% 3 - 7 A- +17 A +13 A+ B- D+ B- +2 B+ F B-
 Sun, Dec 21 64 @Oklahoma St. L 89 - 94 10% -10  0% 3 - 8 B- +7 B +7 A+ B+ C C+ +1 F+ B+ A+
 Sun, Dec 28 39 @SMU L 63 - 110 5% -25  0% 3 - 9 F -31 F -13 F D+ F F -13 F D+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 142 UC Santa Barbara W 95 - 84 48% +13  97% 4 - 9 1 - 2 B +9 B+ +9 B+ C B+ C -1 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 124 UC Irvine L 64 - 86 42% -9  16% 4 - 10 1 - 3 F -22 D -5 D C- A- F -17 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 132 @UC San Diego W 88 - 71 25% +4  52% 5 - 10 2 - 3 A +22 A+ +18 A+ C A+ B +4 A- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 168 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 79 55% -1  32% 6 - 10 3 - 3 C+ +3 C +0 B D B- B- +2 C- B C+
 Thu, Jan 15 175 @UC Davis L 69 - 74 34% -9  0% 6 - 11 3 - 4 C- -3 F+ -9 F C- D+ B+ +7 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 275 @UC Riverside L 72 - 81 54% -9  0% 6 - 12 3 - 5 D- -12 F -10 F D- D- C -1 F A- B+
 Thu, Jan 22 268 Long Beach St. W 71 - 61 74% +11  98% 7 - 12 4 - 5 C +1 D- -7 B+ F D A- +8 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 227 @Cal Poly W 93 - 78 44% +8  89% 8 - 12 5 - 5 B+ +14 A +11 A F+ C+ B- +2 D+ F A
 Sat, Jan 31 142 @UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 83 27% -13  0% 8 - 13 5 - 6 D -10 F+ -10 D D F C+ +0 D B+ B+
 Thu, Feb 5 275 UC Riverside W 78 - 72 75% -1  43% 9 - 13 6 - 6 C- -3 D -6 D- F B B- +2 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 329 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 66 86% +16  97% 10 - 13 7 - 6 C+ +2 D -5 C+ F B B+ +6 B C+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 268 @Long Beach St. W 86 - 82 52% -4  20% 11 - 13 8 - 6 C +1 B- +4 C- B+ A- D+ -4 F A B
 Sat, Feb 14 124 @UC Irvine L 65 - 86 22% -7  31% 11 - 14 8 - 7 F+ -15 D -5 D- C+ A- F+ -9 F C B
 Thu, Feb 19 175 UC Davis W 93 - 92 57% -8  1% 12 - 14 9 - 7 C- -3 A+ +20 A+ C- B F -23 F D+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 329 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 88 - 80 71% -2  32% 13 - 14 10 - 7 C -0 B- +4 A F B D -5 D+ C F
 Sat, Feb 28 118 Hawaii L 85 - 87 41% +3  84% 13 - 15 10 - 8 C- -2 A- +11 B+ B+ A+ F -13 F A C-
 Thu, Mar 5 132 UC San Diego L 77 - 78 45%
 Sat, Mar 7 168 @Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 90 33%
Totals 14 - 16 11 - 9 -2 C +0 B C+ C C- -2 B- C- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ C- B- C+ 37% 37% 43% C C+ D C- D B- C+ C- C+ C- D- D C- D 34% 16% 50% C- D C+ C C B- C C C
1.08 59% 36% 36% +1 0 1.04 25% 1.0 .25 15% .32 72% .23 1.11 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 29% 1.0 .30 18% .30 73% .23
Nov
8		 Wyoming D+ B+ D F D+ 45% 24% 31% D+ D F+ D- F+ F+ A+ B A+ B A- D- D- C+ 44% 11% 46% C- C+ A+ F B D- F A+ F+
0.98 65% 33% 19% -5 0 0.92 18% 0.9 .16 20% .64 72% .46 1.10 48% 50% 38% 0 +2 1.05 25% 1.2 .30 13% .51 59% .30
Nov
10		 California F B C- F C- 38% 23% 39% C- C- C- F F D+ F F F D+ B+ A+ D A- 36% 15% 49% D- B C- C C- F F F F
0.84 61% 36% 21% -7 0 0.87 27% 0.6 .16 18% .17 45% .08 1.20 52% 22% 38% -2 0 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 10% .43 87% .38
Nov
15		 Pacific F+ F F F F 47% 21% 32% A F C- F D A+ C- A C+ C- D- F F F 46% 26% 28% C+ F A+ B+ A A- C- F D
0.93 42% 29% 24% -14 +1 0.74 23% 0.8 .17 9% .31 77% .24 1.09 65% 54% 50% +14 0 1.30 25% 0.9 .21 24% .29 82% .24
Nov
21		 Portland C B B- A+ A 38% 14% 48% B- A D F F C+ C- F F F F+ F F F 46% 18% 36% D+ F B+ F F D- B B B+
1.09 64% 38% 43% +8 +1 1.21 26% 0.6 .16 17% .28 50% .14 1.32 69% 50% 50% +16 +1 1.36 24% 2.5 .60 17% .26 71% .18
Nov
22		 St. Thomas B B+ F C- C+ 39% 9% 52% B- C+ F A- D- A- A+ A+ A+ B+ C C- A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% B- A+ D+ D- D D- B F D-
1.15 67% 20% 32% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.3 .25 13% .38 92% .35 1.05 64% 38% 21% -6 +1 0.92 23% 1.1 .26 12% .25 94% .24
Nov
23		 Northern Colorado B- C F C C 55% 16% 30% B C+ D D D- A+ A+ F+ B+ D- D- C+ B- C+ 35% 15% 51% C C+ B- F F+ F F F F
1.15 57% 30% 32% -3 +2 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 5% .43 70% .30 1.20 68% 38% 32% +2 +1 1.07 24% 1.5 .36 11% .56 85% .47
Nov
29		 Pepperdine C+ A- C+ D- C+ 37% 17% 46% D+ C C B+ B- B+ F D- F B- D- A- A+ A 36% 15% 49% D B+ A+ F B+ C F F F
1.18 68% 40% 30% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.2 .41 13% .15 67% .10 0.98 65% 29% 22% -8 +1 0.87 18% 1.2 .21 18% .45 88% .40
Dec
4		 Cal Poly D F+ A- A C+ 41% 22% 37% C- C C- C+ C- F A+ D A+ D+ C F F F 27% 4% 69% C+ F A+ A+ A+ A F B+ F
1.06 50% 46% 41% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 20% .42 69% .29 1.10 57% 50% 50% +17 +1 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 26% .47 73% .35
Dec
6		 Hawaii F F+ C- F F 54% 14% 32% A- F F+ F F A- D+ D+ D+ A D+ A+ B B 30% 8% 62% C B D+ A B- B- B+ A A
0.81 45% 38% 17% -15 +2 0.75 18% 0.5 .09 12% .28 67% .19 0.95 63% 0% 30% -5 +1 0.94 33% 0.9 .28 21% .29 65% .19
Dec
13		 Denver A B- A+ A+ A+ 39% 11% 50% B- A+ D+ A+ B- D+ B- B B B- C- A+ A A 42% 16% 42% F B+ D+ F F B- D A+ C+
1.37 64% 50% 50% +15 +1 1.36 31% 1.4 .44 14% .35 74% .26 1.12 58% 22% 29% -5 +1 0.93 32% 1.6 .51 16% .34 64% .22
Dec
21		 Oklahoma St. B B- D A+ A+ 42% 11% 47% B A+ B- B+ B+ C A+ F A C+ C+ D- F F 40% 12% 47% B- F+ C+ A B+ A+ C+ A B+
1.12 59% 33% 44% +7 +1 1.19 31% 1.3 .40 18% .52 50% .26 1.18 57% 43% 48% +10 +1 1.25 31% 0.8 .26 21% .34 67% .22
Dec
28		 SMU F F A+ F F 25% 27% 47% D F B+ F D+ F A+ D A F F A F F 31% 26% 43% B- F F A D+ C C C C+
0.83 31% 50% 25% -10 -2 0.78 36% 0.7 .24 25% .38 68% .26 1.44 84% 31% 54% +19 -1 1.38 50% 0.9 .43 14% .29 74% .21
Jan
1		 UC Santa Barbara B+ A+ A+ F A- 43% 25% 31% C- B+ F A+ C B+ A+ A A+ C F D F F 27% 14% 59% C+ F F+ A+ B- A+ A+ F B+
1.25 77% 54% 25% +8 0 1.18 17% 1.8 .31 13% .56 81% .45 1.10 85% 43% 45% +17 0 1.37 37% 0.8 .30 32% .19 100% .19
Jan
3		 UC Irvine D F F A+ D+ 28% 31% 41% F+ D D+ C C- A- D- B D+ F F A+ F F 40% 10% 50% F F F F F A- D- A+ C
0.92 27% 24% 41% -9 -2 0.80 30% 0.9 .28 14% .20 75% .15 1.24 68% 20% 46% +11 +1 1.27 39% 1.5 .61 22% .35 58% .20
Jan
8		 UC San Diego A+ A+ F A+ A+ 29% 21% 50% D+ A+ F A+ C A+ A+ F A- B C- B- A A 27% 6% 67% C A- F F F A+ F F F
1.27 73% 9% 50% +10 -1 1.21 18% 1.7 .30 9% .38 63% .24 1.02 62% 33% 27% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.3 .44 24% .38 90% .34
Jan
10		 Cal St. Northridge C C+ F A+ B 41% 15% 44% B B D C- D B- A+ F A- B- D+ A+ C- C- 47% 15% 38% C- C- A- C B C+ B+ A+ A+
1.10 59% 25% 42% +4 +1 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 14% .42 68% .28 1.01 61% 22% 35% -1 +1 1.03 26% 1.0 .26 18% .25 38% .09
Jan
15		 UC Davis F+ F F C+ F 40% 17% 42% C- F D+ C+ C- D+ A+ F A+ B+ D+ D+ A+ B+ 47% 11% 42% F B- F C F A+ F A F
0.93 48% 11% 36% -7 +1 0.88 28% 1.0 .28 20% .54 59% .32 0.99 62% 40% 26% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 27% .57 68% .39
Jan
17		 UC Riverside F B- D- F F 39% 21% 39% C- F D- D+ D- D- A+ C A+ C F F D+ F 34% 26% 40% B+ F A- A A- B+ F+ F F
0.93 64% 33% 14% -11 0 0.80 24% 0.9 .21 18% .49 71% .35 1.04 71% 54% 35% +9 -1 1.18 21% 0.7 .14 22% .36 82% .30
Jan
22		 Long Beach St. D- A+ A+ F A- 34% 27% 39% D- B+ F F F D C- B C+ A- D- B- B+ B- 27% 20% 53% D C+ C A+ A+ A+ F+ D+ F+
1.04 73% 75% 24% +9 -1 1.18 19% 0.8 .15 19% .35 79% .27 0.90 67% 33% 29% -3 -1 0.96 26% 0.6 .14 25% .33 76% .25
Jan
24		 Cal Poly A B A+ A A 38% 10% 52% B A B- F F+ C+ A+ A A+ B- B- F C D+ 28% 6% 67% B- D+ F B- F A B- B+ B
1.26 65% 60% 41% +10 +1 1.25 34% 0.7 .24 15% .41 81% .33 1.06 53% 100% 33% +1 +1 1.07 43% 0.9 .40 26% .27 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Santa Barbara F+ A- F B- D+ 31% 25% 43% D D F A+ D F D F+ D- C+ F F B D 38% 9% 53% F+ D D A+ B+ B+ C+ F+ C
0.94 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 15% 1.6 .24 20% .31 67% .21 1.13 75% 60% 32% +7 +1 1.19 34% 0.7 .25 22% .30 82% .24
Feb
5		 UC Riverside D F+ F C F 62% 10% 29% A+ D- F C+ F B A+ A+ A+ B- B C- C+ C+ 34% 21% 45% B- C+ A+ A A+ F B+ A+ A+
1.03 50% 20% 33% -7 +3 0.94 17% 1.0 .17 13% .49 84% .41 0.95 52% 38% 32% -3 0 0.95 14% 0.7 .09 12% .24 56% .14
Feb
7		 Cal St. Bakersfield D F A+ A+ B- 35% 15% 50% C C+ D- F F B C C+ C B+ C+ B- A+ A 42% 17% 40% F B D+ B+ C+ B+ D- A+ B+
1.11 44% 63% 42% +5 0 1.13 31% 0.5 .15 15% .36 74% .27 0.89 55% 33% 19% -11 +1 0.81 33% 0.9 .28 22% .41 54% .22
Feb
12		 Long Beach St. B- C F B+ D+ 45% 18% 38% B- C- B- A B+ A- C- A C+ D+ F F C F 33% 24% 43% D F A+ F A B F C F
1.16 60% 20% 38% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.5 .46 13% .34 82% .28 1.11 81% 58% 33% +12 -1 1.24 12% 1.3 .15 20% .39 74% .29
Feb
14		 UC Irvine D F A+ F D 22% 31% 47% F D- F A+ C+ A- F F F F+ F+ F F F 31% 27% 42% B- F B- D C B A+ A A+
0.88 15% 56% 26% -10 -2 0.78 20% 1.7 .34 15% .14 56% .08 1.17 65% 73% 43% +18 -1 1.35 28% 1.1 .32 20% .17 60% .10
Feb
19		 UC Davis A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% D- A+ C D- C- B B- A+ A F F C- F F 33% 16% 51% D+ F D C D+ F F C F
1.40 87% 70% 45% +24 -1 1.49 32% 0.9 .27 17% .34 89% .31 1.38 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.24 30% 1.0 .30 9% .53 75% .40
Feb
21		 Cal St. Bakersfield B- A+ B- A+ A+ 15% 29% 56% F A F B F B D D- D- D F B A D- 25% 39% 36% A- D+ B D- C F C F D
1.20 75% 44% 48% +16 -3 1.29 19% 1.2 .22 15% .34 67% .22 1.09 86% 32% 25% 0 -3 0.95 28% 1.1 .30 14% .36 83% .30
Feb
28		 Hawaii A- A F A A- 28% 28% 43% F+ B+ D A+ B+ A+ A C A- F F F D+ F 19% 10% 71% B+ F B A+ A C- C+ F D
1.18 67% 27% 39% +3 -2 1.04 22% 1.6 .36 10% .40 69% .28 1.21 90% 60% 35% +9 0 1.21 26% 0.8 .21 18% .34 85% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 15.2 15.2 3rd
4th 1.7 1.7 4th
5th 32.5 32.5 5th
6th 10.2 12.4 22.6 6th
7th 23.3 1.0 24.3 7th
8th 3.7 3.7 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 37.1 47.7 15.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 15.2% 5.6% 5.6% 14.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 14.4
11-9 47.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 46.5
10-10 37.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.1 0.4 36.7
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 14.9 97.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 14.4 4.1 50.0 45.3 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.9%
Lose Out 21.9%