California
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#105
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#126
Pace68.8#150
Improvement-0.4#213

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#97
First Shot+2.3#108
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#143
Layup/Dunks+1.4#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#153
Freethrows+2.4#47
Improvement-3.2#316

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#143
First Shot+0.8#151
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#170
Layups/Dunks+3.4#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#229
Freethrows+0.6#138
Improvement+2.8#50
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 9
Quad 22 - 62 - 15
Quad 34 - 36 - 18
Quad 48 - 114 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 86-73 85%     1 - 0 +5.7 +4.3 +0.9
  Nov 07, 2024 194   Cal Poly W 91-73 79%     2 - 0 +13.4 +8.0 +4.1
  Nov 13, 2024 48   @ Vanderbilt L 69-85 17%     2 - 1 -2.1 -4.6 +3.8
  Nov 17, 2024 62   @ USC W 71-66 22%     3 - 1 +17.0 +6.2 +11.1
  Nov 21, 2024 300   Air Force W 78-69 91%     4 - 1 -1.7 +5.5 -6.7
  Nov 24, 2024 336   Sacramento St. W 83-77 94%     5 - 1 -8.3 +3.1 -11.5
  Nov 27, 2024 342   Mercyhurst W 81-55 95%     6 - 1 +11.1 +6.5 +6.5
  Dec 03, 2024 19   @ Missouri L 93-98 8%     6 - 2 +14.5 +17.9 -3.0
  Dec 07, 2024 84   Stanford L 81-89 50%     6 - 3 0 - 1 -4.1 +15.6 -20.2
  Dec 10, 2024 129   Cornell L 80-88 68%     6 - 4 -8.9 -0.5 -8.0
  Dec 14, 2024 244   Northwestern St. W 84-66 85%     7 - 4 +10.7 +16.2 -3.9
  Dec 21, 2024 54   San Diego St. L 50-71 26%     7 - 5 -10.2 -11.7 +0.4
  Jan 01, 2025 60   @ Pittsburgh L 74-86 22%     7 - 6 0 - 2 +0.2 +10.6 -11.2
  Jan 04, 2025 21   @ Clemson L 68-80 8%     7 - 7 0 - 3 +7.2 +14.0 -8.5
  Jan 08, 2025 99   Virginia W 75-61 57%     8 - 7 1 - 3 +16.0 +8.3 +8.9
  Jan 11, 2025 134   Virginia Tech L 68-71 69%     8 - 8 1 - 4 -4.3 +2.4 -7.0
  Jan 15, 2025 36   @ North Carolina L 53-79 13%     8 - 9 1 - 5 -9.9 -15.3 +6.0
  Jan 18, 2025 106   @ North Carolina St. W 65-62 40%     9 - 9 2 - 5 +9.6 +5.5 +4.5
  Jan 22, 2025 82   Florida St. W 77-68 50%     10 - 9 3 - 5 +13.0 +12.9 +0.7
  Jan 25, 2025 174   Miami (FL) W 98-94 OT 76%     11 - 9 4 - 5 +0.4 +8.6 -8.6
  Jan 29, 2025 49   @ SMU L 65-76 18%     11 - 10 4 - 6 +2.8 -4.5 +7.6
  Feb 01, 2025 102   Syracuse L 66-75 59%     11 - 11 4 - 7 -7.4 -3.4 -4.6
  Feb 05, 2025 106   North Carolina St. W 74-62 61%     12 - 11 5 - 7 +13.1 +7.2 +6.7
  Feb 08, 2025 61   Wake Forest L 66-76 40%     12 - 12 5 - 8 -3.5 +4.7 -9.1
  Feb 12, 2025 1   @ Duke L 57-78 2%     12 - 13 5 - 9 +8.4 +0.9 +6.1
  Feb 15, 2025 95   @ Georgia Tech L 88-90 OT 35%     12 - 14 5 - 10 +5.9 +16.6 -10.5
  Feb 22, 2025 84   @ Stanford L 61-66 30%     12 - 15 5 - 11 +4.4 -6.3 +10.7
  Feb 26, 2025 49   SMU L 77-81 34%     12 - 16 5 - 12 +4.3 +2.5 +1.9
  Mar 01, 2025 168   Boston College W 82-71 75%     13 - 16 6 - 12 +7.7 +4.0 +3.2
  Mar 05, 2025 23   @ Louisville L 68-85 9%     13 - 17 6 - 13 +1.7 +3.1 -1.1
  Mar 08, 2025 93   @ Notre Dame L 110-112 4OT 33%     13 - 18 6 - 14 +6.3 +9.9 -3.0
  Mar 11, 2025 134   Virginia Tech W 82-73 2OT 59%     14 - 18 +10.5 -1.2 +10.4
  Mar 12, 2025 84   Stanford L 71-74 39%    
Projected Record 14 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 100.0 100.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 100.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.1%
Lose Out 60.6%