IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Stanford
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+7.6	#77
Expected Predictive Rating	+12.6	#43

Pace	68.9	#181
Improvement	-0.2	#196

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#93	B-	C+	B-	A-	A+
Defense	#71	B	C+	A-	D	B+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	46%	#27	1.13	#201	+3.6	#67
2 Pt. Jumpers	9%	#355	0.78	#142	-4.4	#356
Three Pointers	46%	#90	1.09	#80	+4.1	#56
1st FG Attempt			1.08	#90	+3.2	#90
Freethrows	21.0	#22	74%	#154	15.5	#28
Second Chance	34.7%	#66	1.02	#216	0.35	#106
Turnovers					15.5%	#119
Total Offense					+3.5	#93

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	38%	#198	1.13	#139	+0.7	#144
2 Pt. Jumpers	28%	#26	0.74	#141	-2.5	#337
Three Pointers	34%	#344	0.91	#63	+5.3	#16
1st FG Attempt			0.95	#72	+3.6	#72
Freethrows	19.1	#278	76%	#328	14.5	#307
Second Chance	26.8%	#57	1.10	#254	0.29	#111
Turnovers					19.4%	#43
Total Defense					+4.1	#71

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	4.1%	#9	-1.8%	#49
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	2.1%	#144	-5.3%	#82
Possession Length	16.9	#129	17.6	#222
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.20	#100	0.11	#25
Improvement	-0.6	#215	+0.4	#161

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	28.1%	34.0%	18.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	27.9%	33.8%	18.7%
Average Seed	9.7	9.7	9.9

.500 or above	98.7%	99.7%	97.1%
.500 or above in Conference	48.7%	60.1%	30.9%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	1.1%	0.2%	2.4%

First Four	8.9%	10.1%	7.0%
First Round	22.4%	27.8%	13.9%
Second Round	6.5%	8.4%	3.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.7%	0.9%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: California (Home) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 1b	4 - 3	5 - 6
Quad 2	5 - 3	10 - 9
Quad 3	6 - 3	15 - 12
Quad 4	5 - 0	20 - 12

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Tue, Nov 4	153 Portland St.	W	89 - 79	83%	+6	1 - 0		+8	+7	B	A-	F	-1	F	A+	A+
Sat, Nov 8	161 Montana	W	91 - 68	84%	+11	2 - 0		+20	+10	B-	C-	A+	+8	A+	D-	A+
Wed, Nov 12	152 Montana St.	W	77 - 68	83%	+4	3 - 0		+7	-1	C-	C	C-	+7	C+	B	A+
Tue, Nov 18	312 Louisiana	W	93 - 66	96%	+12	4 - 0		+15	+15	B+	C-	A-	-1	D	B-	B
Fri, Nov 21	121 Seattle	L	69 - 77	77%	+2	4 - 1		-8	-1	D	C	A+	-7	C	D-	A
Thu, Nov 27	71 Minnesota	W	72 - 68	48%	+1	5 - 1		+12	+10	D-	A+	A+	+2	D	F	A+
Fri, Nov 28	28 Saint Louis	W	78 - 77	25%	-6	6 - 1		+16	+10	B	C+	B	+6	A+	F	D+
Mon, Dec 1	210 Portland	W	94 - 72	90%	+14	7 - 1		+16	+20	A+	A+	A+	-4	F	C	A+
Sun, Dec 7	114 UNLV	L	74 - 75	75%	+2	7 - 2		-1	-1	F	A+	F	+1	C+	A-	B+
Sat, Dec 13	238 @San Jose St.	W	86 - 82	80%	+8	8 - 2		+3	+12	A+	A+	F	-9	C+	F	F
Wed, Dec 17	156 Texas Arlington	W	76 - 60	84%	+12	9 - 2		+13	+8	A+	B-	C-	+6	C	A+	C
Sat, Dec 20	78 Colorado	W	77 - 68	50%	+3	10 - 2		+17	+6	C-	B	A-	+11	A	C+	A+
Sat, Dec 27	207 Cal St. Northridge	W	88 - 80	89%	+1	11 - 2		+2	+6	A+	F	D-	-5	D	A+	B+
Tue, Dec 30	84 Notre Dame	L	40 - 47	63%	-5	11 - 3	0 - 1	-3	-22	F	F	A+	+18	A+	B-	A+
Fri, Jan 2	13 Louisville	W	80 - 76	23%	+3	12 - 3	1 - 1	+19	+20	A+	A+	A	-1	A+	F	A-
Wed, Jan 7	58 @Virginia Tech	W	69 - 68	31%	-5	13 - 3	2 - 1	+14	+14	A+	B	A+	+0	B+	A+	C
Sat, Jan 10	16 @Virginia	L	55 - 70	11%	-6	13 - 4	2 - 2	+6	-2	C	F	F	+7	A-	A+	C
Wed, Jan 14	31 North Carolina	W	95 - 90	36%	-5	14 - 4	3 - 2	+16	+22	A+	F	A	-6	C-	D+	B-
Sat, Jan 17	3 Duke	L	50 - 80	14%	-15	14 - 5	3 - 3	-11	-8	D-	A	F	-6	B	F	C
Sat, Jan 24	75 California	W	75 - 72	61%
Wed, Jan 28	40 @Miami (FL)	L	71 - 79	23%
Sat, Jan 31	111 @Florida St.	W	80 - 79	54%
Wed, Feb 4	32 Clemson	L	67 - 70	37%
Sat, Feb 7	113 Georgia Tech	W	79 - 72	75%
Wed, Feb 11	134 @Boston College	W	70 - 67	61%
Sat, Feb 14	63 @Wake Forest	L	73 - 77	35%
Sat, Feb 21	75 @California	L	72 - 75	38%
Wed, Feb 25	91 Pittsburgh	W	74 - 69	67%
Sat, Feb 28	29 SMU	L	76 - 80	37%
Wed, Mar 4	84 @Notre Dame	L	69 - 72	41%
Sat, Mar 7	26 @North Carolina St.	L	71 - 82	16%
Totals						19 - 12	8 - 10	+8	+3	B-	C+	B-	+4	B	C+	A-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st															0.0	0.0				0.0	1st
2nd													0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0				0.3	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.7	0.7	0.1	0.0				1.6	3rd
4th											0.1	1.1	1.7	0.3						3.1	4th
5th										0.0	0.8	3.3	1.1	0.0						5.3	5th
6th										0.3	4.0	3.2	0.2	0.0						7.7	6th
7th									0.1	2.8	6.0	1.0	0.0							9.9	7th
8th								0.0	1.2	7.7	3.4	0.1								12.5	8th
9th								0.3	5.1	6.4	0.6									12.4	9th
10th							0.0	1.8	8.0	2.2	0.0									12.0	10th
11th							0.4	5.2	4.9	0.3										10.7	11th
12th						0.0	1.6	5.6	1.1											8.4	12th
13th						0.2	3.8	2.3	0.1											6.4	13th
14th					0.0	1.1	2.9	0.4												4.4	14th
15th					0.1	1.6	1.0	0.0												2.7	15th
16th					0.4	1.0	0.1													1.5	16th
17th				0.0	0.4	0.2	0.0													0.7	17th
18th				0.1	0.1	0.0														0.3	18th

Total				0.2	1.1	4.1	9.8	15.6	20.5	19.7	14.9	8.8	3.8	1.2	0.2	0.0					Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	3-Way	4-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	50.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0
14-4	7.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0
13-5	0.0%
12-6	0.0%
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	0.0%									0.0	0.0	0.0
14-4	0.2%	100.0%	2.5%	97.5%	6.7					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0									100.0%
13-5	1.2%	97.5%	0.8%	96.7%	7.8					0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0							0.0	97.5%
12-6	3.8%	85.4%	0.7%	84.8%	8.7					0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	1.3	0.6	0.1						0.6	85.3%
11-7	8.8%	72.9%	0.5%	72.4%	9.4							0.1	1.0	2.2	2.3	0.8						2.4	72.8%
10-8	14.9%	53.6%	0.4%	53.2%	9.9							0.0	0.4	1.8	3.6	2.1	0.0					6.9	53.4%
9-9	19.7%	32.0%	0.2%	31.8%	10.4							0.0	0.1	0.6	2.4	3.2	0.0					13.4	31.8%
8-10	20.5%	11.4%	0.1%	11.3%	10.8									0.1	0.5	1.8	0.0					18.2	11.3%
7-11	15.6%	2.0%	0.1%	2.0%	10.9								0.0		0.0	0.3	0.0					15.3	2.0%
6-12	9.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.3%	10.9										0.0	0.0	0.0					9.8	0.3%
5-13	4.1%																					4.1
4-14	1.1%																					1.1
3-15	0.2%																					0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	28.1%	0.2%	27.8%	9.7																	71.9	27.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%