Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#31
Expected Predictive Rating+15.6#27
Pace68.8#186
Improvement-4.9#357

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#37
First Shot+9.0#7
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#305
Layup/Dunks+3.7#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#84
Freethrows+1.0#115
Improvement-2.7#343

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#36
First Shot+8.0#11
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#325
Layups/Dunks-0.4#176
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#9
Freethrows+3.8#9
Improvement-2.2#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.1% 2.3% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 10.4% 11.0% 4.4%
Top 6 Seed 25.6% 26.9% 13.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.0% 78.5% 63.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.9% 76.5% 61.2%
Average Seed 7.5 7.4 8.2
.500 or above 99.3% 99.5% 97.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 92.6% 86.6%
Conference Champion 6.6% 6.8% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.1% 6.9% 8.7%
First Round73.3% 74.9% 58.8%
Second Round43.1% 44.4% 31.3%
Sweet Sixteen16.1% 16.8% 10.3%
Elite Eight6.6% 6.9% 4.0%
Final Four2.4% 2.5% 1.2%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 90.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 26 - 211 - 9
Quad 38 - 119 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 203   Radford W 96-56 94%     1 - 0 +35.0 +18.4 +16.2
  Nov 08, 2024 124   Murray St. W 83-68 89%     2 - 0 +14.4 +10.6 +3.9
  Nov 11, 2024 238   Gardner-Webb W 83-64 96%     3 - 0 +11.8 +2.4 +8.6
  Nov 15, 2024 39   West Virginia W 86-62 65%     4 - 0 +32.6 +15.2 +16.5
  Nov 18, 2024 348   VMI W 93-48 99%     5 - 0 +29.8 +14.9 +15.9
  Nov 22, 2024 56   LSU W 74-63 61%     6 - 0 +20.6 +9.1 +11.8
  Nov 24, 2024 36   Wisconsin L 75-81 51%     6 - 1 +6.2 +7.5 -1.4
  Nov 29, 2024 38   @ Ohio St. W 91-90 OT 41%     7 - 1 +15.8 +18.1 -2.3
  Dec 04, 2024 28   @ Mississippi St. L 57-90 36%     7 - 2 -16.7 -7.2 -10.6
  Dec 07, 2024 125   @ Virginia Tech W 64-59 76%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +10.3 -0.6 +11.3
  Dec 11, 2024 219   Eastern Kentucky W 96-56 95%     9 - 2 +34.2 +18.4 +15.7
  Dec 21, 2024 128   Sam Houston St. W 82-69 90%    
  Jan 01, 2025 118   California W 83-70 88%    
  Jan 04, 2025 94   Stanford W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 07, 2025 2   @ Duke L 65-76 15%    
  Jan 11, 2025 51   Louisville W 77-72 69%    
  Jan 15, 2025 64   @ Florida St. W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 34   Clemson W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 95   @ Syracuse W 79-75 64%    
  Jan 28, 2025 22   North Carolina W 80-79 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 86   @ Wake Forest W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 03, 2025 91   Virginia W 66-57 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 22   @ North Carolina L 77-82 34%    
  Feb 11, 2025 48   @ SMU L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 93   Miami (FL) W 80-71 80%    
  Feb 18, 2025 95   Syracuse W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 82   @ Notre Dame W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 25, 2025 111   Georgia Tech W 80-68 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 51   @ Louisville L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 05, 2025 80   @ North Carolina St. W 71-69 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 154   Boston College W 79-64 91%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.2 6.3 3.1 0.7 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.7 5.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 6.1 4.4 1.0 0.1 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.9 4.0 1.0 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.2 1.1 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.1 6.9 10.3 13.7 15.1 15.2 12.9 9.3 5.4 2.3 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 96.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1
18-2 70.8% 1.7    1.0 0.6 0.0
17-3 39.9% 2.2    0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
16-4 15.3% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 3.7% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.1 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 51.0% 49.0% 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 2.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.3% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.9 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.4% 99.9% 19.9% 80.0% 4.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 9.3% 99.6% 15.9% 83.7% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.5 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 12.9% 98.4% 12.8% 85.6% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.0 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.1%
14-6 15.2% 94.8% 8.8% 86.0% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.1 3.9 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.8 94.3%
13-7 15.1% 87.2% 5.7% 81.5% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 3.8 3.0 1.1 0.0 1.9 86.5%
12-8 13.7% 73.0% 4.0% 69.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 3.4 2.0 0.1 3.7 71.8%
11-9 10.3% 56.1% 2.6% 53.5% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 2.2 0.1 4.5 54.9%
10-10 6.9% 36.4% 1.3% 35.1% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.1 4.4 35.6%
9-11 4.1% 13.6% 0.9% 12.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.6 12.9%
8-12 2.2% 2.6% 0.5% 2.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.1%
7-13 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 1.1 0.4%
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 77.0% 8.2% 68.8% 7.5 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.2 6.8 8.4 9.9 11.1 11.8 11.0 7.3 0.4 23.0 74.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 52.2 47.8